Deforestation in the drylands of Africa: Quantitative modelling approach

This paper has developed a two-sector model of forestry that gives some insights into the interactions of poverty, land tenure insecurity, economic growth, trade and deforestation in the context of the drylands of Africa. Externally, the model results show that the world demand for non-timber forestry products can lead to a win-win situation whereby both trade and environmental sustainability can be promoted. Monopolistic measures to control the supply of these products, for short-term price gains, are harmful economically and environmentally. By contrast, productivity-raising measures have a favourable impact on both the economy and the environment. Internally, the model results show that the growth of the rest of the economy has driven the economic growth of the forestry sector, but at the same time, its environmental degradation. Poverty and land tenure insecurity also contribute to this degradation. Fortunately, policies promoting basic needs satisfaction and property rights security are shown to be effective in mitigating environmental degradation in the forestry sector. The paper results contribute towards a more sustainable exploitation of forestry.Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

虚拟耕地资源与农业经济增长：作用机理及贡献份额研

虚拟耕地资源被广泛认为是缓解国内耕地资源压力和促进农业经济增长的重要举措之一。在论证虚拟耕地资源贸易对农业经济增长作用机理分析的基础上,计算1996~2018年中国主要农产品虚拟耕地资源贸易量,并对虚拟耕地资源对农业经济增长中的贡献份额进行实证分析,为调整对外贸易战略及优化耕地资源策略提供参考。结果表明：虚拟耕地资源可以在更大范围内实现耕地资源的优化配置;主要农产品贸易的巨大逆差决定了中国是虚拟耕地资源净进口大国,其中,油料是虚拟耕地资源净进口量最大的品种;虚拟耕地资源对农业经济增长的贡献率为0.26%,观点得到了佐证。同时,还提出了要试点实施虚拟耕地资源,全力以赴做好贸易政策调整战略;充分利用国内外“两种资源、两个市场”,倒逼主要农产品进行结构调整;努力构建虚拟耕地资源管理新模式,推动农业“走出去”与市场多元化结合等政策建议。     

中国对外贸易的环境影响综合效应分析

在全面提高开放型经济水平的背景下,需要深入分析对外贸易规模、外贸经济布局对环境影响的综合效应,全面探索对外贸易的环境效应规律。理论分析主要考察了对外贸易发展对环境影响综合效应的作用机制,在污染的需求和供给函数基础上,将环境因素分别引入对外贸易的生产者函数、消费者函数、政府税收函数,构建对外贸易环境总效应实证模型,模型分析表明,对外贸易对环境影响的规模效应体现为环境污染在不同禀赋和收入水平国家间转移;对外贸易对环境影响的结构效应体现为出口产品结构的改变,但是由于不同的比较优势,该结构效应在各经济体间的正负影响各不相同;资本积累会带来更多的污染,技术进步则会降低污染水平,二者相互作用究竟产生正面还是负面的影响效果,关键看资本积累和技术进步是否带来污染密集型产品的生产。同时基于我国29个省(市)的动态面板数据,实证检验了我国经济总量、外贸规模、外贸经济布局对环境影响的综合效应。研究表明,经济增长导致的收入效应和规模效应使污染物排放量呈现先下降然后增长的变化,而外商投资在短期内会增加环境污染,但从长期来看,正的技术效应使污染排放量呈现逐渐降低的趋势,同时受到产业结构的约束,外贸经济布局的产品效应及结构效应呈现显著的负效应。我国对外贸易对环境影响负效应产生的现实基础来源于我国的外贸结构与模式等特征的国情基础,改善我国的外贸对环境影响的负效应需要通过继续深化外贸体制改革,转变外贸增长方式,完善环境经济政策,加强国际多边合作等综合手段来实现。     

Population dynamics,rural livelihoods and environmental degradation: some experiences from Tanzania

Population growth and environmental degradation are closely linked. Increasing population has in many rural areas of Tanzania contributed to changes in land use/cover patterns, land fragmentation and livelihood insecurity. Increasing demand for food, energy and other environmental services has contributed to expansion of agriculture, including marginal areas, and deforestation often leading to environmental degradation. Increased reliance on natural resources for rural livelihoods, subsistence nature of the agricultural sector and limited economic opportunities in rural areas are among the factors leading to rural–rural and rural–urban migrations searching for better livelihood opportunities. The high urban demand for food and biomass energy from rural areas has also contributed to rural deforestation and overall environmental degradation. This paper addresses the linkages between population and environmental degradation in Tanzania. It argues that effective implementation of development and resources management policies can lead to environmental sustainability even with growing populations. It provides evidence from successful land management interventions such as HADO, HASHI and SECAP, which support the argument that with effective implementation of resource management initiatives even larger populations can be supported by the available resources. Such successful interventions ought to be emulated elsewhere with similar environmental problems.     

Land management and environmental change in small-island-developing states: the case of St. Lucia

Regional Environmental Change - Although the history of the plantation economy and its land tenure legacy have contributed significantly to environmental degradation in Caribbean...     

Threatened access, risk of eviction and forest degradation: case study of sustainability problem in a remote rural region in India

Degradation of common pool resource (CPR) in developing countries has often been traced to high rate attached by poor people in discounting future flow of benefits, market failure, pressure on carrying capacity or sometimes property right failure. However, the concept of poorly enforced property right and particularly risk of eviction as a measure of insecurity of land tenure has not been adequately examined in the context of degradation of CPR. A game theoretic framework is developed where degradation of forest grazing land is explained in terms of changes in perceived risk of eviction from the encroached land. Logit regression is applied to empirically analyse the impact of perceived fear of reduced access and other variables on the state of degradation. For this purpose, a sample of seven villages is considered in tribal dominated region in West Bengal, India. It is observed that apart from a number of socio-economic variables like poverty, mutual trust and other incomes, perceived fear of eviction (represented as a dummy variable) arising from insecurity of forest land tenure, has a significant impact on forest degradation status in the study region.     

Scenarios and story lines: drivers of land use change in southern Mexico

The study presents three scenarios of land use and cover change (LUCC), the most important factor for environmental degradation in southern Mexico. We developed story lines and quantitative projections for regional scenarios based on historic LUCC processes, environmental policies, socioeconomic drivers, stakeholder consultations and official planning documents to gain a better understanding of drivers of LUCC, and quantitative scenarios were modeled with DINAMICA-EGO. Regionally specific interactions between social and natural systems are recognized, and detrimental policies and policy options for landscape conservation and management for sustainability are acknowledged in a base line, variant and alternative scenario. Incongruent policies and ineffective ground implementation of conservation actions were identified as the critical underlying drivers of deforestation and forest degradation that could lead to a severe reduction in natural forests, while the local socioeconomic situation stays precarious. The baseline scenario parts from an analysis of historic LUCC processes and shows the consequences of LUCC tendencies: 73% of temperate forests and 50% of tropical forests would get deforested until 2030. In the variant scenario, these tendencies are adjusted to planning goals extracted from official documents and recent changes in public policies. The alternative scenario further addresses policy options for fostering conservation and sustainable development, but because of the time lag of implementation, still 59% of temperate forests and 36% of tropical forest would get lost until 2030. Nevertheless, this represents a reduction of 13% of forest loss and 11% less pastureland due to the proposed measures of conservation, and sustainable management, including strategies for reforming agricultural systems, agricultural and forestry policies and trade, land tenure and livelihood risk management.     

Forest protection and economic development by offshoring wood extraction: Bhutan’s clean development path

With globalization, virtual exchanges of natural resources embodied in traded commodities redistribute geographically land use and its environmental impacts. Benefits of national forest protection may be undermined at the global-scale by leakage through international trade. We studied land use displacement associated with national policies to protect forests in Bhutan. This case study provides a simple situation: a dominant forest cover almost unaffected by agricultural expansion, a rural economy dominated by the primary sector, centralized forest conservation policies, and a dominant trading partner. We assessed the net effects at the international level of the Bhutanese forest protection policies by accounting for trade in wood products with India. Our results show that these policies have been effective in maintaining a high forest cover, but have been accompanied by an increasing displacement of forest use to India. In 1996–2011, the difference between the total volume of wood imported from India and the total volume exported from Bhutan—i.e., the net displacement—corresponds to 27 % of the total volume consumed in Bhutan. In 2011, 68 % of the total forest area required to produce the wood consumed in Bhutan was located in India. The wood imported by Bhutan was likely originating from tree plantations in the northeastern Indian states. Since Bhutan has few tree plantations and very valuable natural forests, the net international-level ecological impacts of this land use displacement is arguably positive. Most of the wood imports of Bhutan were wood charcoal for its emerging chemical industries. This case of displacement reflects functional upgrading in the value-chain rather than an externalization of consumption-based environmental costs. Through its government policies, Bhutan has managed to support its economic development while protecting its forests and leapfrogging the negative impacts on forests generally associated with the early stages of modernization.     

Environmentally extended social accounting matrix for Chile

This study uses information from the input–output tables 2008, national accounts, household survey, and environmental pollutant emissions to elaborate an environmentally extended social accounting matrix for Chile. A linear multisector model is then generated in order to determine the effects that a sectoral shock on demand would have on economic development. The results show the typical economic trade-offs, concluding that it is necessary to consider economic relationships in order to assess the full impact of a sector on economic activity, income distribution, and pollution. The sectors commerce, construction, and food industry strongly increase economic growth and employment and decrease inequality. Nonetheless, when also considering the environmental effects, no sectors can be identified that contribute systematically and significantly to all the areas of economic development.     

Economic Growth and Environmental Degradation in a Global Context

The overall aim of this study is to analyse the relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation with particular reference to carbon emissions and deforestation. The analysis is based upon the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model, which posits an inverted-U relationship between incomes per capita and environmental quality. In particular, the present analysis tries to take into account the current process of globalisation with the aim of defining the impact of the progressive global economic integration on the relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation. The study confirms that there is an inverted-U relationship between income growth and carbon emissions, while the relationship results less clear in the case of forest change. The inclusion of globalisation in the analysis confirms similar results and suggests a direct link between an increase in the rate of integration with the global economy and a worsening in terms of environmental degradation.     

China–Africa development cooperation in the rural sector: an exploration of land tenure and investments linkages for sustainable resource use

China-Africa development cooperation in the rural sector has received an increased attention by researchers and policy-makers given the advantages and disadvantages of China’s contribution to the local economy. However, there is a lack of more reliable and nuanced findings to provide greater insights into the major issues concerning rural development and resource use. This paper aims to position land tenure and foreign investments linkages as a new research angle for understanding the role of land in sustainable resource use and investments. The paper provides a brief overview of China-Africa cooperation in rural development especially concerning agriculture to illustrate the neglect of critical land and resource use issues in policy and practice. The paper briefly discusses the ongoing land tenure reforms in Africa and the policy gaps to be filled through further research. It also discusses how China’s own development model, especially concerning land tenure reform, shares similar trajectories with Africa, which has important implications for the effectiveness of Chinese investments in African land. The paper concludes that there is an urgent need for lesson learning among Chinese and African policy-makers and investors towards tailoring development cooperation to more appropriate land tenure systems for sustainable resource use to the mutual benefit of Chinese and African stakeholders.     

中国绿色经济战略研究

以联合国"里约+20"会议为背景,在梳理世界主要国家绿色经济发展进程、绿色经济理论研究和实践探索,分析当前绿色经济发展现状和政策的基础上,探讨了我国绿色经济发展战略框架问题。认为:政府层面要加强对绿色产业发展引导、努力完善激励约束政策,保障绿色经济的稳健发展,重视绿色科技人才队伍建设,增强绿色产业自主创新能力。目前要解决的问题,一是通过建立排污权交易市场,实现环境价值的货币化;二是建立健全与绿色经济核算相关的法规制度;三是实施绿色GDP考核制度,从根本上改变经济增长方式。企业层面要重视绿色科技人才队伍建设,增强绿色产业自主创新能力,实现绿色产业的发展与调整。行业层面要着重节能建筑、可再生能源、可持续交通、可持续农业和生态基础设施建设等。消费者层面要加强绿色理念宣传,积极倡导绿色消费。从国际贸易的角度,应积极争取发达国家提供技术支持和技术培训,以帮助环保商品和服务行业的发展。     

中国城市建设用地扩张与经济增长重心迁移与脱钩关系研究

协调经济增长与土地资源利用关系是经济发展提质增速及可持续城市建设的关键，为探索城市建设用地扩张与经济增长的时空演变特征及其耦合趋势，运用重心模型、Tapio弹性指数对建设用地扩张与经济增长的空间耦合关系与脱钩状态进行测度，并构建计量模型，检验了经济、社会、政策等因素对城市扩张的影响。结果表明：（1）中国经济与建设用地规模保持双增长态势，中西部地区近年来建设用地扩张更加明显，经济和建设用地重心均呈现西南方向迁移，但空间耦合性逐渐减弱；（2）中国经济与建设用地脱钩关系不断恶化，脱钩状态分布格局变化明显，东部地区脱钩状况逐渐改善；（3）社会经济因素是城市扩张的关键推动力，政策、产业集聚等也在一定程度上促进城市扩张。未来要重点加强对中西部地区城市土地扩张的管控，对于东部地区而言，则要在经济转型的过程中寻求产业转型与土地利用转型的契合点，追求城市的精明增长。     

经济增长、国际贸易与污染排放的关系研究——基于美国和中国SO2排放的实证分析

在世界经济一体化进程中,国际贸易成为影响各国环境污染变化的重要因素,将其纳入经济增长与环境污染间关系的分析框架是环境学界关注的一个重要问题。本文基于联立方程模型,从经济产出、污染排放、污染治理和国际贸易等四个方面探讨了经济增长与污染排放的相互作用机理,并以美国、中国SO2排放为例进行了实证研究。结果表明:污染排放对经济产出有影响,且对美国和中国分别为正作用和负作用。经济增长增加了两国国内污染排放,且中国增加的相对更多。而污染治理均减少了国内污染排放,美、中的污染减排弹性系数分别为-0.277和-0.417。国际贸易对美国起到污染减排作用,对中国的影响不显著,考虑到贸易对中国经济增长的拉动作用,其经济规模间接污染效应不容忽视。对于中国而言,加大污染治理投资、改善贸易进出口状况、降低经济发展过程中的污染排放是实现经济与环境协调发展的有效途径。     

An exploration of the interaction between socio-economic productivity and water withdrawal

The term sustainability invites interest in the main factors that affect the deterioration of natural resources. Different hypotheses have been put forward concerning the relationship between water and its effect on different economic sectors. Several questions can be asked here, for example: Does a higher water withdrawal for one sector mean that this sector is adding more to the GDP or is it a sunk cost (it is the cost that should be ignored compared to the benefit of water withdrawal for an individual economic sector) compared with the benefits to the economy? Do social factors affect water withdrawal more than economic factors or are they both impacting equally? We aim to answer these questions and to shed light on different socio-economic factors that affect water withdrawal in different economic sectors. This study investigates, in depth, the interaction between humans and the environment and can be useful in monitoring the direct effect on water withdrawal from agricultural and non-agricultural sectors and on different national economic variables that act as an indicator for economic development and growth. We used simultaneous equation models in our analysis, both the three-stage least squares and the two-stage least squares to explore the relationships. For more credibility, we run the fixed and random effects of 2SLS. Our results showed the influence of trade openness and economic growth on water withdrawal for different economic sectors, and the effect of an increasing demand for water for non-agricultural purposes, which adds pressure on the agricultural sector and eventually may lead to rising food prices.     

论国际贸易与可持续发展

本文在分析了国际贸易对全球资源开发和经济发展的影响以及环境管理系统系列计划（ISO14000）对我国生产方式转变影响的基础上，提出了要依靠科技进步，通过国际贸易发展技术知识密集型产品替代资源密集型产品，发展外向型规模经济，设计后发型战略，促进我国的可持续发展。     

长株潭地区经济增长与工业污染变迁的实证研究

根据长株潭地区1990~2006年经济与工业污染数据,分析了经济发展与环境污染的相互关系,建立了二者之间的计量模型。研究表明：作为一个重化工业城市群,长株潭自20世纪90年代以来,在经济高速发展的情况下,其环境恶化程度逐步得到局部控制。其中,长沙市部分环境指标与人均GDP演替轨迹呈现显著的环境库兹涅茨曲线特征;而株洲市和湘潭市工业污染排放量与人均GDP呈“U”形特征,即随着经济的增长,环境污染先是有一定程度的缓解,但随即有较大幅度的反弹。为了进一步促进长株潭地区经济与环境的协调发展,三地政府一方面应采取措施加快产业结构调整和优化工业布局,另一方面,还应尝试实施"排污权交易"和"受益者支付"原则等积极的环保管理手段和政策。     

Thailand’s economic growth and structural development projections in the context of environmental control

Projections for 20 years of economic growth and change in the structure of the Thai economy were made for 180 sectors using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to compare the following four scenarios: (1) standard growth with infinite supply of factors, (2) finite land supply, (3) fixed use of agricultural chemicals, and (4) combined finite land supply with fixed use of agricultural chemicals. The computable projections suggest that the economic cost of hypothetical environmental control in agriculture is small and further weakened by urbanization. The computed structural development points to efficiency improvements specific to sectors to return the economy to balanced growth.     

贸易、外商直接投资、经济增长与环境污染

选取1990—2002年中国30个省市贸易、外商直接投资(FDI)、经济和环境相关数据，从定性和定量描述的角度探讨贸易、FDI对我国环境库兹涅茨曲线(ECK)的影响。研究表明：贸易对中国的ECK没有直接影响。但考虑到贸易对经济增长的贡献，以及它在引进先进污染防治技术和环境管理思想方法方面的积极作用，积极发展对外贸易将有助于改善我国经济增长带来的环境污染问题。另一方面。FDI与污染物排放之间呈现出显著的正相关关系。在中国接受经济全球化影响的过程中，由于部分地区急于吸引外资，加之环境管理体系的不完善，外商直接投资在某些方面对我国环境造成了一定的负面影响。     

The Impact on Environmental Kuznets Curve by Trade and Foreign Direct Investment in China

Abstract

Based on data of trade, foreign direct investment (FDI), economic development and environmental conditions in China's 30 provinces between 1990–2002, this paper deals with the impact on Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) of trade and FDI in China. The results show no direct impact on EKC of trade, on the one hand. However, trade contributes significantly to economic growth, and has played a positive role in introducing advanced pollution prevention technology and environmental management methodology to China. Therefore, a proactive trade policy will help solve the environmental pollution problem brought by economic growth. On the other hand, there is a positive correlation between FDI and pollutant emission, which proves that FDI does have some negative influence on environment in China due to hasty introduction of foreign capital and inadequate environmental management system in China.