Conservation planning for successional landscapes

The systematic conservation planning literature invariably assumes that the biodiversity features being preserved in sites do not change through time. We develop a conservation planning framework for ecosystems where disturbance events and succession drive vegetation dynamics. The framework incorporates three key attributes of disturbance theory: heterogeneity in disturbance rates, spatial correlation between disturbance events and different impacts of disturbance. In our conservation problem we wish to maximise the chance that we represent a certain number of successional types given a cap on the number of sites we can conserve. Correlation between disturbance events dramatically complicates the problem of choosing the optimal suite of sites. However, in our problem we discover that spatial correlation in disturbances affects the optimal reserve network very little. The reason is twofold: (i) through our probabilistic framework we focus on the long-term effectiveness of reserve networks and (ii) in the dynamics considered in our model the state of a site is not only affected by the most recent (correlated) disturbance event but also by the site's long-term stochastic history which blurs the impact of spatial correlation. If successional states are the conservation target rather than individual species then, conserving a site can only contribute to meeting one target. However, given that correlation of disturbance events may be ignored, we show that if the number of candidate reserves is sufficiently large the statistical dependence of different conservation targets may be ignored, too. We conclude that the computational complexity of reserve selection methods for dynamic ecosystems can be much simpler than they first appear.     

土壤、土地利用多样性及其与相关景观指数的关联分析

土壤作为人类赖以生存的物质基础,与土地利用之间存在密切联系,土壤类型及属性的差异很大程度上决定了土地利用的方式,同时土地利用方式的不同也间接地改变着土壤类型、性质及功能多样性的格局。在人地矛盾、人与自然矛盾不断加剧的今天,研究土地和土壤的空间分布格局变化及两者之间的交互关系具有重要意义。利用土壤多样性理论和景观生态学原理综合分析土壤、土地利用类型的空间分布格局,并借助空间网格的概念量化分析土壤和土地利用类型的空间分布情况。以河南省中南部样区为研究对象,利用仙农熵变形公式计算了1 km×1 km、3 km×3 km、5 km×5 km 3种网格尺度下的土壤和土地利用的空间分布多样性和各县市的土壤和土地利用构成组分多样性,运用ArcGIS探讨了多样性指数与景观指数之间的关联性,综合评价研究区的土壤类型空间分布与土地利用空间分布格局的相互性。研究表明：同一种土壤和土地利用类型的空间分布多样性指数在异网格尺度下具有相似的分异规律;土地利用与土壤类型的构成组分多样性之间不具有明显的相关性,土壤类型均匀分布的地区,土地利用类型不一定会均匀分布,而两者的平均斑块面积之间具有明显的相关性,土壤斑块的大小对土地利用斑块的大小影响较大,土壤类型的空间分布特征在一定程度上,将影响土地利用的空间分布格局和变化过程;土壤类型的面积指数、平均斑块面积指数分别与土壤空间分布多样性之间具有较好的相关性,相关系数分别为r2=0.990、r2=0.599。而土地利用的面积指数、平均斑块面积指数与土地利用空间分布多样性指数之间的相关性较差,相关系数分别为r2=0.437、r2=0.034。土壤的平均斑块形状指数与多样性指数之间存在一定正相关关系,相关系数为r2=0.612;但土地利用的形状指数与多样性之     

Assessing the risk of soil contamination in the Swiss Jura using indicator geostatistics

The probability that the concentrations of toxic substances in soil or other medium exceed tolerablemaxima at any unsampled place can be estimated by indicator geostatistics. The method is developed and used to estimate and map the risk of contamination by cadmium, copper and lead in the topsoil of a 14.5 km 2 region in the Swiss Jura. It combines both direct measurements of metal concentrations and thecalibration of a geological map, and it shows that the risk of toxicity is least on Argovian rocks. Two approaches are proposed to divide a region into safe' and 'hazardous' zones on the basis of probability maps. The first declares as contaminated all places where the risk of contamination exceeds a given threshold. The second approach first evaluates the financial costs that might result from a wrongdeclaration, after which the site is allocated to a class so as to minimize that cost. The risk of exposure for humans and animals is generally greater for contaminated agricultural land than for forest soil, and so land use is taken into account in both procedures.     

Intertype mark correlation function: A new tool for the analysis of species interactions

The spatial pattern of the different species in complex ecosystems reflects the underlying ecological processes. In this paper a second order moment function is proposed and tested to analyse the spatial distribution of a mark, which could be a tree characteristic such as diameter or height, between two different types of points, which could be two different tree species. The proposed function was a conditional density function based on the intertype K_rs(d) function, incorporating as test function the correlation of the marks between pairs composed of points of different types. The results obtained in simulated and real plots prove that the function is capable of revealing the scale at which spatial correlation of the mark between two types of points exists. The proposed function allows the spatial association between individuals of different species at different life stages to be identified. This analysis may reveal information on species ecology and interspecific interactions in forest ecosystems.     

Song repertoires and density assessment in red-winged blackbirds: further tests of the Beau Geste hypothesis

Summary The Beau Geste hypothesis proposes that song repertoires are advantageous in territory defense because nonterritorial males, who are prospecting for territories, use the number of song types they hear to assess the density of territorial males, and then avoid densely-settled areas. A territorial male can then inflate the apparent density of singers on his territory by singing several distinct song type. This hypothesis assumes (1) a positive correlation between the density of song types and the density of territorial males, and (2) a negative correlation between the rate of trespassing and the densities of both song types and territorial males. We studied the behavior of male red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) and found support for the first, but not the second, assumption. Results showing a positive correlation between density of song types and density of territorial males show that the proposed method of density assessment is feasible in this species. However, we could find no support for the assumption that nonterritorial male red-winged blackbirds avoid densely settled areas. In contrast to the assumed negative correlation, rate of trespass per territory was not consistently correlated with male density, and trespass rate per unit area was positively correlated with male density. Further, these relationships were retained when we controlled statistically for the effects of territory quality. We conclude that prospecting male red-winged blackbirds to not attempt to avoid densely settled areas, and that, although they do avoid territories defended by many song types, they do not use song type density to assess the density of territorial males. It is thus unlikely that the Beau Geste hypothesis adequately accounts for the evolution of song repertoires in the red-winged blackbird.     

运用SCI-GROW模型预测农药对地下水的污染风险

在对美国环境保护局开发的地下水暴露评价模型进行比较的基础上,选择SCI-GROW模型预测我国福建省甘蔗种植区5种常用农药对地下水的污染风险,并将模型预测结果与该地区地下水中农药的实测结果进行比较,对模型进行验证.结果表明,模型预测结果与实测结果之间具有很好的相关性,SCI-GROW模型能较好地用于我国东南沿海等地下水位较高、降水量较大、土壤砂性等地下水易受污染地区农药的筛选评价.最后,运用SCI-GROW模型预测涕灭威等17种我国常用农药对地下水的污染风险,为这些农药的科学使用提供参考.     

钢铁工业遗留场地土壤重金属洗脱剂筛选研究

土壤重金属污染限制了工业遗留场地再利用,通过振荡试验考察了HCl、HNO3和EDTA对工业遗留场地土壤中超标重金属Pb、Zn、Cd和As的洗脱效果。结果表明：土壤Pb、Zn、Cd、As的脱除效果均随洗脱剂浓度增加而增加;HCl、HNO3和EDTA等3种洗脱剂浓度分别为0.5、0.5和0.1 mol.L-1时,土壤Pb、Cd质量分数可降低至场地安全再利用的控制标准以内（分别为140 mg.kg-1、1mg.kg-1）;洗脱剂浓度分别增至2、2和0.2 mol.L-1时,土壤Pb、Cd质量分数继续降低,Zn、As质量分数有大幅降低但没有达到其相应的场地安全控制标准（分别为200、20 mg.kg-1）;与EDTA相比,HCl在低浓度时的重金属脱除效果较差,但HCl浓度增加对重金属脱除率的提高效果更为明显;洗脱液pH值（7.88~0.15）与重金属脱除率均呈显著负相关且与As的负相关系数最小,说明洗脱液pH值变化对As去除的影响相对较小;与HCl和HNO3相比,EDTA洗脱液pH值与Pb脱除率之间的负相关系数较大,与Zn、Cd、As脱除率之间的负相关系数较较小,说明EDTA洗脱液pH值变化更易对Pb的去除产生影响。     

Improving occupancy estimation when two types of observational error occur: non-detection and species misidentification

Efforts to draw inferences about species occurrence frequently account for false negatives, the common situation when individuals of a species are not detected even when a site is occupied. However, recent studies suggest the need to also deal with false positives, which occur when species are misidentified so that a species is recorded as detected when a site is unoccupied. Bias in estimators of occupancy, colonization, and extinction can be severe when false positives occur. Accordingly, we propose models that simultaneously account for both types of error. Our approach can be used to improve estimates of occupancy for study designs where a subset of detections is of a type or method for which false positives can be assumed to not occur. We illustrate properties of the estimators with simulations and data for three species of frogs. We show that models that account for possible misidentification have greater support (lower AIC for two species) and can yield substantially different occupancy estimates than those that do not. When the potential for misidentification exists, researchers should consider analytical techniques that can account for this source of error, such as those presented here.     

Liability for groundwater contamination from pesticides

This paper considers the extent to which farmers should be held liable for groundwater contamination from agricultural pesticides. The problem is first viewed as a standard tort and then as a case of product liability, where the question of shifting liability to the manufacturer of the pesticide is considered. The results suggest that, when the problem is viewed as a case of product liability, farmer exemptions from liability can still lead to efficient levels of pesticide use, provided appropriate application methods keyed to site characteristics can be ensured through regulation or other means.     

Pollution by cadmiumin the vicinity of smelting operations

Some investigations into the pollution by cadmium around smelters have been reviewed. The areas discussed include Japan, the United Kingdom, North America, and Australia. The account describes the various types of investigation carried out. Cadmium levels in soils and in vegetation at various distances from smelters in a number of locations are given. From the results considered, a number of conclusions can be drawn, for example, contamination is mostly aerial and particulate. The extent of pollution from this type of aerial fallout is very dependent upon meteorological conditions and local topography, and generally decreases with distance from the smelter stack.     

Song repertoire size and female preferences in song sparrows

Summary Captive female song sparrows (Melospiza melodia), after treatment with estradiol, perform copulation solicitation displays when presented with songs of conspecific males. Females respond more strongly to eight song types than to four, and to sixteen song types than to eight. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that female song sparrows prefer large repertoires, rather than preferring normal or natural repertoire sizes (5 to 13 song types).The results with captive females might be taken to imply that females in the field prefer as mates those males with the largest repertoire sizes. This hypothesis was tested by observing pairing in a field population. In each of 2 years, there was no significant correlation between male repertoire size and date of initial pair formation. Furthermore, there was no correlation between repertoire size and the speed with which a second mate was acquired after removal of the first. It is concluded that repertoire size does not have an important influence on female choice of mates in song sparrows.     

福建省菜园土壤重金属的含量及其污染评价

采集了福建省26个县市158份菜园表层土壤样品,测定了土壤样品中重金属含量,采用单项及综合污染指数法对土壤重金属污染进行评价分析,并通过元素相关性分析和聚类分析,研究了菜园土壤重金属元素的赋存特征与区域分布.结果表明,福建省菜园土壤存在着不同程度的重金属污染,主要污染元素为Pb,Hg和Cd;元素相关性分析与聚类分析的结果表明:Cu,Zn,Ni和As具有伴随污染的特点,其污染源主要来自土壤母质和大量施用的农药和化肥;Cd,Pb和Hg在土壤中各聚成一类,说明它们在菜园土壤具有较独特的污染源,特别是Cd和Hg,其污染特征明显.而Pb和Cd虽有各自的污染源,但其污染具有一定的相关性.     

Assessment of the effect of environmental pollution in a marina on caged mussels using chemical and genotoxic analysis

An integrated approach using the contamination levels and DNA damage in mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis) was applied in order to assess the chemical contamination in a marina (Eastern coastline of Aegean Sea). Mussels, which were harvested from a reference site (Foca), were transplanted into a marina situated along the coast of Izmir Bay. The transplanted mussels were collected at the 14th, 30th and 60th day of the experimental period. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) levels (27–51?ng?g^?1?wet?weight) detected in the mussels were similar to the levels detected in other coastal areas of the Mediterranean Sea. The marina’s sediment was found to be contaminated with PAHs (∑PAH?=?25?µg?g^?1) of pyrolytic origin and may become a source of pollution and a threat to the marine environment. In order to assess the DNA damage, the haemolymph and gill cells of the mussels were used for the comet analysis and considered as an indicator of exposure to genotoxic chemicals including 16 PAH compounds and metals. The highest levels of DNA damage expressed as %Tail-DNA (%T-DNA) were observed at the end of the experiment (21.5% T-DNA). The correlation analyses conducted between 2-, 3-, 4-ring PAHs in mussels and %T-DNA in haemolymph and gill cells showed a significant positive correlation. This investigation confirmed that transplanted mussel can be a useful tool to determine PAH contamination in marinas.     

Statistical evaluation of the attainment of interim cleanup standards at hazardous waste sites

Cleanup standards at hazardous waste sites include (i) numeric standards (often risk-based), (ii) background standards in which the remediated site is compared with data from a supposedly clean region, and (iii) interim standards in which the remediated site is compared with preremediation data from the same site. The latter are especially appropriate for verifying progress when an innovative, but unproven, technology is used for remediation. Standards of type (i) require one-sample statistical tests, while those of type (ii) and type (iii) call for two-sample tests. This paper considers two-sample tests with an emphasis upon the type (iii) scenario. Both parametric (likelihood ratio) and nonparametric (linear rank) protocols are examined. The methods are illustrated with preremediation data from a site on the National Priorities List. The results indicate that nonparametric procedures can be quite competitive (in terms of power) with distributional modelling provided a near optimal rank test is selected. Suggestions are given for identifying such rank tests. The results also confirm the importance of sound baseline sampling; no amount of post-remediation sampling can overcome baseline deficiencies.This paper has been prepared with partial support from the United States Environmental Protection Agency under a Cooperative Agreement Number CR-815273. The contents have not been subject to Agency review and therefore do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Agency and no official endorsement should be inferred.     

Der Einsatz von Pflanzentests bei der Sedimentbewertung

Up to now, sediment studies have mainly used standardized aquatic bioassays with organisms of the three trophic levels. Among these, algae are the only representatives of the entire plant kingdom. Bioassays with higher plants have hardly been used for the assessment of sediments. The aim of the present study is to demonstrate that the use of higher plants in biotests for analyses of anthropogenically contaminated sediments yields valuable results, which may be included in a concept for the integrated assessment of waters. The contamination by environmental chemicals was determined in the River Elbe by means of samples taken at the Fahlberg-List industrial site at Magdeburg in combination with studies in a reference area on the Müritz-Elde Waterway (Eldenburger Kanal). Sediment extracts and pore waters were tested with the aquatic lemna test. For comparison, first sediment contact tests withLemna minor were tried out. The whole extract of the sediment from Fahlberg-List Magdeburg and one fraction F5 caused distinct damages of the plants. Obviously, the phytotoxic substances of the whole extract are preferentially concentrated in the highly polar fraction F5. A comparison with chemical analytical data proved that the whole fraction F0 and the fraction F5 were heavily contaminated with chemicals. Assays with pore water from this sediment and with the whole sediment also caused a strong inhibition of growth. These results confirm the high contamination of the sediment from Magdeburg. The tests with the reference sediment suggested only a moderate toxic contamination. The results of this study prove that the selected aquatic plant,Lemna minor, is basically able to indicate contamination. In the aquatic test of the sediment extracts, it showed weak, but very selective, responses to certain classes of contaminants. Fractionating of the sample and subsequent chemical analysis combined with toxicity tests allow to narrow down the groups of substances causing toxic effects. This toxicity was confirmed by analyses of the pore waters and whole sediment samples. Together with other toxicity tests (e.g. standardized bioassays) and combined with biological benthos examinations, an overall judgment can be given for the integrated assessment of waters.     

Culturally correct song dialects are correlated with male age and female song preferences in wild populations of brown-headed cowbirds

Variation in vocal behavior among local populations of songbirds may be significant to females in mate choice. In a study of dialect populations of brown-headed cowbirds, estradiol-implanted females from two dialects held the pre-copulatory lordosis posture longer in response to playback of the local flight whistle song than to foreign whistle types from adjacent and more distant dialects. Females were held in captivity for a relatively brief period prior to testing and received no tutoring so discrimination was based solely on experience in the wild. This is the first study to show evidence of discrimination by female cowbirds based on flight whistle type. Evidence is presented from one of the study dialects that the majority of yearling male cowbirds are vocally distinct from resident adults in having either foreign or incomplete local whistles. Although these yearlings are fully mature sexually, they have little or no mating success. The correlation between female whistle preference and male mating success suggests that the ability to give the correct local whistle type may be a characteristic used by females to assess age and quality of a potential mate. A learned female preference for the predominant local song type may be a factor in the stability of these dialects by making it adaptive for males to conform to the local dialect.     

Wildlife and coal development: An overview

This paper briefly reviews the changes which have occurred in the past three hundred years in the public's attitudes toward our Nation's natural resources, particularly the wildlife resources. It discusses how these changing attitudes have contributed to today's surface coal mine reclamation laws which require that the disturbed land be restored to a level of productivity equal to or greater than that which occurred before mining. This paper stresses the need to manage each reclamation site on an ecosystem basis, recognizing the interrelationships of all the resource components. This paper emphasizes both the fundamental importance of the holistic approach to mine site reclamation and the responsibility that the wildlife biologist has to see to it that wildlife habitat considerations are incorporated into each phase of the reclamation plan. Brief management considerations are given to three unique reclamation habitat types; riparian, agriculture and forest.     

CUSUM environmental monitoring in time and space

We consider the situation where there are n sampling sites in an area, with an environmental variable measured at some or all of the sites at m sample times. We assume that there is interest in knowing whether the environmental variable displays systematic changes over time at the sites. A cumulative sum type of analysis with associated randomization tests has been proposed before for this situation, when there is negligible correlation between the observations in different times at one site, and no correlation between the results at different sites. A modification that allows for serial correlation at the individual sites but with no correlation between sites has also been proposed before. In the present paper we discuss how the method can be modified further to allow for spatial correlation between the sites, by applying it only to a reduced set of sites that are far enough apart to give effectively independent results. Simulation results indicate that this strategy is effective providing that the level of spatial correlation is not too high.     

The effects of opportunistic and intentional predators on the herding behavior of prey

In this article, we study how predator behavior influences the aggregation of prey into herds. Game-theoretic models of herd formation are developed based on different survival probabilities of solitary prey and prey that join the herd and on the predator's preference of what type of prey to search for. For an intentional predator that will only pursue its preferred type of prey, a single herd with no solitaries cannot emerge unless the herd acts as a prey refuge. If neither prey choice provides a refuge, it is shown that an equilibrium always exists where there are both types of prey and the predator does not always search for the same type of prey (i.e., a mixed equilibrium exists). On the other hand, if the predator is opportunistic in that it sometimes shifts to pursue the type of prey that is observed first, there may be a single herd equilibrium that does not act as a prey refuge when there is a high level of opportunistic behavior. For low opportunistic levels, a mixed equilibrium is again the only outcome. The evolutionary stability of each equilibrium is tested to see if it predicts the eventual herding behavior of prey in its corresponding model. Our analysis confirms that both predator and prey preferences (for herd or solitary) have strong effects on why prey aggregate. In particular, in our models, only the opportunistic predator can maintain all prey in a single herd that is under predation risk.     

Statistics for correlated data: phylogenies, space, and time.

Here we give an introduction to the growing number of statistical techniques for analyzing data that are not independent realizations of the same sampling process--in other words, correlated data. We focus on regression problems, in which the value of a given variable depends linearly on the value of another variable. To illustrate different types of processes leading to correlated data, we analyze four simulated examples representing diverse problems arising in ecological studies. The first example is a comparison among species to determine the relationship between home-range area and body size; because species are phylogenetically related, they do not represent independent samples. The second example addresses spatial variation in net primary production and how this might be affected by soil nitrogen; because nearby locations are likely to have similar net primary productivity for reasons other than soil nitrogen, spatial correlation is likely. In the third example, we consider a time-series model to ask whether the decrease in density of a butterfly species is the result of decreases in its host-plant density; because the population density of a species in one generation is likely to affect the density in the following generation, time-series data are often correlated. The fourth example combines both spatial and temporal correlation in an experiment in which prey densities are manipulated to determine the response of predators to their food supply. For each of these examples, we use a different statistical approach for analyzing models of correlated data. Our goal is to give an overview of conceptual issues surrounding correlated data, rather than a detailed tutorial in how to apply different statistical techniques. By dispelling some of the mystery behind correlated data, we hope to encourage ecologists to learn about statistics that could be useful in their own work. Although at first encounter these techniques might seem complicated, they have the power to simplify ecological research by making more types of data and experimental designs open to statistical evaluation.