A systematic approach to estimating the assessment phase of a remediation project

Environmental assessment consists of scientific studies to define contamination at a potential release site or sites and to evaluate the risk posed to human health and the environment. These studies are performed within a prescribed regulatory framework. There is a high degree of uncertainty associated with preparing cost and schedule estimates for activities such as site characterization, risk assessment, and evaluation of remediation alternatives. This article describes the approach that Sandia National Laboratories is using to meet the challenge of estimating the assessment phase of its Environmental Restoration Project. Emphasis is placed on lessons learned, with examples given to illustrate the approach.     

Practical Policy Applications of Uncertainty Analysis for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

International policy makers and climate researchers use greenhouse gas emissions inventory estimates in a variety of ways. Because of the varied uses of the inventory data, as well as the high uncertainty surrounding some of the source category estimates, considerable effort has been devoted to understanding the causes and magnitude of uncertainty in national emissions inventories. In this paper, we focus on two aspects of the rationale for quantifying uncertainty: (1) the possible uses of the quantified uncertainty estimates for policy (e.g., as a means of adjusting inventories used to determine compliance with international commitments); and (2) the direct benefits of the process of investigating uncertainties in terms of improving inventory quality. We find that there are particular characteristics that an inventory uncertainty estimate should have if it is to be used for policy purposes: (1) it should be comparable across countries; (2) it should be relatively objective, or at least subject to review and verification; (3) it should not be subject to gaming by countries acting in their own self-interest; (4) it should be administratively feasible to estimate and use; (5) the quality of the uncertainty estimate should be high enough to warrant the additional compliance costs that its use in an adjustment factor may impose on countries; and (6) it should attempt to address all types of inventory uncertainty. Currently, inventory uncertainty estimates for national greenhouse gas inventories do not have these characteristics. For example, the information used to develop quantitative uncertainty estimates for national inventories is often based on expert judgments, which are, by definition, subjective rather than objective, and therefore difficult to review and compare. Further, the practical design of a potential factor to adjust inventory estimates using uncertainty estimates would require policy makers to (1) identify clear environmental goals; (2) define these goals precisely in terms of relationships among important variables (such as emissions estimate, commitment level, or statistical confidence); and (3) develop a quantifiable adjustment mechanism that reflects these environmental goals. We recommend that countries implement an investigation-focused (i.e., qualitative) uncertainty analysis that will (1) provide the type of information necessary to develop more substantive, and potentially useful, quantitative uncertainty estimates-regardless of whether those quantitative estimates are used for policy purposes; and (2) provide information needed to understand the likely causes of uncertainty in inventory data and thereby point to ways to improve inventory quality (i.e., accuracy, transparency, completeness, and consistency).     

A conceptual cost estimate for remediation activities at a multisite federal facility

The Sandia National Laboratories Environmental Restoration Project is in the process of determining the nature and extent of environmental contamination at numerous potential release sites. Sites found to be contaminated above certain action levels must be remediated. Sandia is responsible for preparing preliminary cost estimates for remediation activities in order to meet Department of Energy planning requirements for future funding. Sandia used the ENVEST parametric cost-estimating model to prepare conceptual cost estimates for remediation prior to having definitive knowledge of the nature and extent of contamination. This article describes the estimating approach and the results achieved at Sandia.     

Stochastic Modeling Concepts in Groundwater and Risk Assessment: Potential Application to Marine Problems

Parameter uncertainty is ubiquitous in marine environmental processes. Failure to account for this uncertainty may lead to erroneous results, and may have significant environmental and economic ramifications. Stochastic modeling of oil spill transport and fate is, therefore, central in the development of an oil spill contingency plan for new oil and gas projects. Over the past twenty years, several stochastic modeling tools have been developed for modeling parameter uncertainty, including the spectral, perturbation, and simulation methods. In this work we explore the application of a new stochastic methodology, the first-order reliability method (FORM), in oil spill modeling. FORM was originally developed in the structural reliability field and has been recently applied to various environmental problems. The method has many appealing features that makes it a powerful tool for modeling complex environmental systems. The theory of FORM is presented, identifying the features that distinguish the method from other stochastic tools. Different formulations to the reliability-based stochastic oil spill modeling are presented in a decision-analytic context.     

Adaptive sampling and analysis programs for contaminated soils

Adaptive sampling and analysis programs (ASAPs) provide a cost-effective alternative to traditional sampling program designs. ASAPs are based on field analytical methods for rapid sample turnaround and field-based decision support for guiding the progress of the sampling program. One common objective of ASAPs is to delineate contamination present in soils, either to support feasibility studies or remedial action designs. An ASAP based on portable gas chromatograph/ mass spectrograph (GC/MS) technologies developed at Tufts University combined with decision support tools created at Argonne National Laboratory was used to delineate explosives contamination in soils at Joliet Army Ammunition Plant, Joliet, Illinois. Tufts' GC/MS technologies provided contaminant-specific identification and quantification with rapid sample turnaround and high sample throughput. Argonne's decision support tools estimated contamination extent, determined the uncertainty associated with those estimates, and indicated where sampling should continue to minimize uncertainty. In the case of Joliet, per sample analytical costs were reduced by 75 percent as compared to the cost of off-site laboratory analyses for explosives. The use of an ASAP resulted in a much more accurate identification and delineation of contaminated areas than a traditional sampling program would have with the same number of samples collected on a regular grid. While targeting explosives contamination in soils at Joliet, the ASAP technologies used in this demonstration have much broader application.     

Comparative occurrence rates for offshore oil spills

Estimates of occurrence rates for offshore oil spills are useful for analysis of potential oil spill impacts and for oil spill response contingency planning. As the Oil Pollution Act of 1990 (U.S. Public Law 101–380, 18 August 1990) becomes fully implemented, estimates of oil spill occurrence will become even more important to natural resource trustees and to responsible parties involved in oil and gas activities. Oil spill occurrence rate estimates have been revised based on U.S. Outer Continental Shelf platform and pipeline spill data (1964–1992) and worldwide tanker spill data (1974–1992). These spill rates are expressed and normalized in terms of number of spills per volume of crude oil handled. The revisions indicate that estimates for the platform spill occurrence rates declined, the pipeline spill occurrence rates increased, and the worldwide tanker spill occurrence rates remained unchanged. Calculated for the first time were estimates of tanker and barge spill rates for spills occuring in U.S. waters, and spill occurrence rates for spills of North Slope crude oil transported by tanker from Valdez, Alaska. All estimates of spill occurrence rates were restricted to spills greater than or equal to 159 m³ (1000 barrels).     

Unit costs for decontamination and dismantlement of structures

A series of relationships have been developed for estimating unit costs for decontamination and dismantlement (D&D) of a number of structure types. These relationships may be applied in the absence of other data to obtain rough order-of-magnitude cost estimates for D&D activities. The relationships were developed using D&D costs estimated for various types of buildings at the U.S. Department of Energy Fernald site. These unit costs take into account the level of radiological contamination as well as the building size and type.     

A Practical Guide to Estimating Cleanup Costs

Cost estimates are frequently developed to evaluate hazardous‐waste‐site cleanup options in support of a site investigation, remedy selection decision, or assessment of environmental liabilities. The accuracy of the cost estimate depends largely on the quality of the information available at the time it is prepared. This article presents a practical guide to developing a cleanup cost estimate. It includes information on how to document assumptions, use the latest technical resources, and perform basic adjustments to account for uncertainty and the time value of money. The content is based upon a recent guidance document issued by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers entitled A Guide to Developing and Documenting Cost Estimates during the Feasibility Study (USEPA, 2000). © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Partitioning tracer tests as a remediation metric: Case study at naval amphibious base little creek,Virginia Beach,Virginia

The partitioning tracer test (PTT) is a characterization tool that can be used to quantify the porespace saturation (S_N) and spatial distribution of dense nonaqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs) in the subsurface. Because the method essentially eliminates data interpolation errors by directly measuring a relatively large subsurface volume, it offers significant promise as a remediation metric for DNAPL‐zone remediation efforts. This article presents, in detail, the design and results of field PTTs conducted before and after a DNAPL‐zone treatment at the Naval Amphibious Base Little Creek, Virginia Beach, Virginia. The results from different tracers yield a relatively large range in S_N estimates, indicating notable uncertainty and presenting significant challenges for meaningful interpretation. Several potential interpretation methods are presented, resulting in an estimated DNAPL removal range of 15 to 109 L. While this range is large, it is consistent with the DNAPL removal (～30 L) determined from analysis of effluent concentration measurements collected during the remediation efforts. At this site, the initial and final S_N values are low, and the relatively inconsistent performance of the various tracers indicates that these levels are near the lower practical quantification limit for these PTTs; however, the effective lower quantification limit for these tests is unknown. Generally, an understanding of lower quantification limits is particularly important for interpretation of post‐remediation PTTs because S_N values are likely to be low (due to remediation efforts) and the S_N estimated from the PTT may be used to predict long‐term dissolved plume behavior and assess associated environmental risk. Partitioning tracer test quantification limits are test‐specific, as they are dependent on a variety of factors including analytical uncertainty, tracer breakthrough characteristics, and tracer data integration techniques. The results of this case study indicate that methods for estimating lower quantification limits for field PTTs require further development. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Cost estimating of the closure/post-closure phase

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is beginning major environmental restoration projects of both active and inactive sites throughout the United States. The problems at the sites include contaminated soils, groundwater and surface waters, structures, and old waste disposal areas. IT Corporation, under the direction of the Office of Independent Cost Estimating (OICE) for DOE, developed a list of environmental problems at the sites and probable cleanup technologies and techniques that could be used. Estimated unit costs were then developed for these cleanup technologies, using available data and references. Some procedures developed were common to many or all cleanup projects. These included site characterization, remedial investigation (RI), feasibility studies (FS), and the closure/post-closure phase. The article will focus on cost estimating of the closure/post-closure phase of a cleanup project. The cost data provided are for budget level or check estimates. Site-specific conditions as well as items peculiar to the environmental industry, such as governmental regulations and community relations, can influence both the cost and duration of a cleanup project.     

Economic Project Risk Assessment in Remediation Projects Prior to Construction: Methodology Development and Case Study Application

Probabilistic economic analysis, including uncertainty of probabilities and consequences of project risks, is not widely used in remediation projects. This article presents a project risk assessment (PRA) method to identify, quantify, and analyze risks in remediation projects. The suggested method is probabilistic and includes uncertainty analysis of input variables based on expert judgment. It was originally developed as a part of a sustainability assessment tool, but is viable as a stand‐alone tool for remediation projects. The method is applied to a case study: a former paint factory that is being redeveloped into a residential area. The PRA method is used for analyzing and comparing the project risks associated with four remediation options, all including excavation but with different degrees of onsite treatment. The result of the case study application shows which alternative has the lowest mean risk cost, the highest probability to have the lowest risk cost, and how the risk costs are distributed, but also, importantly, helps the user to prioritize between risk‐reduction measures. ©2015 Wiley Periodicals     

A METHODOLOGY FOR QUANTIFYING THE VOLUME OF CONSTRUCTION WASTE

Estimates for construction waste generation are often based onper capitamultipliers in much the same way as municipal solid waste estimates. This has lead to estimation rates with more than 10-fold variation and little confidence in the resulting estimates. A methodology is offered in this paper that bases construction waste estimates on the financial value of building permits for a variety of types of construction projects. In this way, estimates reflect actual construction activity more closely and are based on a detailed and widely available database from the U.S. Census Bureau. A case study estimating gypsum wallboard waste generation for a region of the United States is described. The case study results were used in the decision-making process by a wallboard manufacturing plant interested in the development of a regional gypsum wallboard recycling programme.     

A critical review of economic valuation studies of externalities from incineration and landfilling.

The primary objective of this study was to assist waste management researchers, decision-makers and waste managers at national, regional and local levels, in their decision-making processes, with most recent valuations on the environmental and social costs of externalities associated with various pollutants and disamenities related to landfilling and incineration of municipal solid waste. The aim was achieved by mapping, gathering, analysing, comparing and synthesizing various valuation estimates, based on a thorough review of existing literature. This study provides the first comprehensive review and analysis focused on primary and secondary valuation studies, conducted since 1990. The second objective was to assess the appropriateness and reliability of the valuation methods and techniques that were performed in the reviewed studies. The results of the review are summarized in tables, organized by topics and units of measure and in addition a classified list that describes the profile of the reviewed studies is provided. The results are then analysed and compared, and recommended ranges of the values are presented. The study reveals inconsistency in part of the estimates across the reviewed studies and provides reasonable explanations for the variations. Given the nature of uncertainty, and the difficulties associated with transferring values among different places and cases, these values should be considered mostly as an indication for the order of magnitude of the externalities. Nevertheless, these essential estimates of the external costs can beneficially be used with proper adjustment for each individual case to address important policy questions regarding landfilling and incineration of waste.     

Probabilistic approach for estimating the release of contaminants under field management scenarios

A probabilistic approach is presented for estimating the release of contaminants by leaching, when wastes are being considered for disposal in a class of landfills but the specific landfill disposal site is uncertain. A simple percolation and equilibrium-based release model is used in conjunction with laboratory testing results and observations of field leachate characteristics for municipal solid waste landfills, hazardous waste landfills and industrial co-disposal landfills. The approach is applied for assessing the efficacy of potential treatment processes for mercury contaminated soils. For each landfill scenario, historical values of leachate pH and annual leachate generation quantities were used to derive the probability distribution functions of the field pH and LS ratio that may be expected to contact the disposed material over an estimated time period of 100 years. For each potential treatment process, laboratory testing was used to establish the treated material's leaching characteristics as a function of pH LS ratio. This approach allowed determination of distribution frequencies and limit values for release estimates instead of single point estimates. The probability of the mass of a constituent of interest released exceeding a hypothetical threshold was examined for each treatment process and landfill system. Results of the probabilistic analysis allowed for integration of a range of data and provided a good basis for assessing the efficacy of the examined treatment processes over the three assumed disposal scenarios.     

Estimating Remediation Costs at Contaminated Sites With Varying Amounts of Available Information

Environmental professionals are often tasked with projecting the cost to bring a contaminated site or portfolio of sites to regulatory closure. Fortunately, there are a number of useful guidance documents and industry publications available to assist in such cost projections. However, the usefulness of such tools is limited when adequate costing information is lacking, such as (a) the nature and extent of contamination; (b) regulatory requirements; (c) the remedial approach to be implemented; and/or (d) the duration of operation, maintenance, and monitoring activities. Despite the lack of such information, cost‐to‐closure estimates are nevertheless routinely needed and generated for internal assessments or audits, regulatory disclosures, property acquisitions, insurance claims, litigation, and other business transactions. Cost estimates are also often needed in bankruptcy proceedings where the trier of fact must estimate the total future costs associated with an environmental legacy portfolio to determine the overall value (or solvency in the case of evaluating the potential bankruptcy) of a company. This article presents a solution for developing cleanup costs for single sites or a portfolio of sites using a comprehensive, three‐tiered method that is effective over a wide range of site information. Real‐world examples of the successful application of this method are then provided, based on detailed environmental analyses that were completed for a recent bankruptcy proceeding and a case in which an estimated cleanup cost was needed in a legal proceeding. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Estimating construction and demolition debris generation using a materials flow analysis approach

The magnitude and composition of a region’s construction and demolition (C&D) debris should be understood when developing rules, policies and strategies for managing this segment of the solid waste stream. In the US, several national estimates have been conducted using a weight-per-construction-area approximation; national estimates using alternative procedures such as those used for other segments of the solid waste stream have not been reported for C&D debris. This paper presents an evaluation of a materials flow analysis (MFA) approach for estimating C&D debris generation and composition for a large region (the US). The consumption of construction materials in the US and typical waste factors used for construction materials purchasing were used to estimate the mass of solid waste generated as a result of construction activities. Debris from demolition activities was predicted from various historical construction materials consumption data and estimates of average service lives of the materials. The MFA approach estimated that approximately 610–780 × 10⁶ Mg of C&D debris was generated in 2002. This predicted mass exceeds previous estimates using other C&D debris predictive methodologies and reflects the large waste stream that exists.     

A cost study for enhanced sludge washing of high-level radioactive waste at the U.S. Department of energy Hanford Site

Enhanced Sludge Washing (ESW) with caustic has the potential to significantly reduce the amount of sludge-based underground storage tank (UST) high-level radioactive waste at the Hanford Site. The alternative to ESW is a simple sludge wash, a process that does not take advantege of recent dissolution development efforts. During the past several years, studies have been conducted to determine the remediation cost savings derived from the development and deployment of ESW. The tank waste inventory and ESW process performance continues to be revised as waste characterization, and ESW development efforts advance. This study provides a new cost savings estimate based upon the most recent waste inventory and ESW process performance revisions, an estimate of the associated cost savings uncertainty, and an estimate of the rate of return (ROR) on the investment in technology development. The revised remediation cost savings estimate due to ESW of all UST waste at Hanford is $4.8 billion ± $0.7 billion within 95 percent confidence in 1998 dollars. The ROR on investment was estimated to range from 100 percent to 130 percent. A sensitivity analysis indicated that it would be difficult to imagine a remediation scenario for which ESW did not yield a significant remediation cost savings and ROR.     

Quantifying uncertainty in LCA-modelling of waste management systems

Uncertainty analysis in LCA studies has been subject to major progress over the last years. In the context of waste management, various methods have been implemented but a systematic method for uncertainty analysis of waste-LCA studies is lacking. The objective of this paper is (1) to present the sources of uncertainty specifically inherent to waste-LCA studies, (2) to select and apply several methods for uncertainty analysis and (3) to develop a general framework for quantitative uncertainty assessment of LCA of waste management systems. The suggested method is a sequence of four steps combining the selected methods: (Step 1) a sensitivity analysis evaluating the sensitivities of the results with respect to the input uncertainties, (Step 2) an uncertainty propagation providing appropriate tools for representing uncertainties and calculating the overall uncertainty of the model results, (Step 3) an uncertainty contribution analysis quantifying the contribution of each parameter uncertainty to the final uncertainty and (Step 4) as a new approach, a combined sensitivity analysis providing a visualisation of the shift in the ranking of different options due to variations of selected key parameters. This tiered approach optimises the resources available to LCA practitioners by only propagating the most influential uncertainties.     

SLFP: a stochastic linear fractional programming approach for sustainable waste management

A stochastic linear fractional programming (SLFP) approach is developed for supporting sustainable municipal solid waste management under uncertainty. The SLFP method can solve ratio optimization problems associated with random information, where chance-constrained programming is integrated into a linear fractional programming framework. It has advantages in: (1) comparing objectives of two aspects, (2) reflecting system efficiency, (3) dealing with uncertainty expressed as probability distributions, and (4) providing optimal-ratio solutions under different system-reliability conditions. The method is applied to a case study of waste flow allocation within a municipal solid waste (MSW) management system. The obtained solutions are useful for identifying sustainable MSW management schemes with maximized system efficiency under various constraint-violation risks. The results indicate that SLFP can support in-depth analysis of the interrelationships among system efficiency, system cost and system-failure risk.