The Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Climate Model part II: application to the Arctic climate

The Rossby Centre regional climate model (RCA2) has been integrated over the Arctic Ocean as part of the international ARCMIP project. Results have been compared to observations derived from the SHEBA data set. The standard RCA2 model overpredicts cloud cover and downwelling longwave radiation, during the Arctic winter. This error was improved by introducing a new cloud parameterization, which significantly improves the annual cycle of cloud cover. Compensating biases between clear sky downwelling longwave radiation and longwave radiation emitted from cloud base were identified. Modifications have been introduced to the model radiation scheme that more accurately treat solar radiation interaction with ice crystals. This leads to a more realistic representation of cloud-solar radiation interaction. The clear sky portion of the model radiation code transmits too much solar radiation through the atmosphere, producing a positive bias at the top of the frequent boundary layer clouds. A realistic treatment of the temporally evolving albedo, of both sea-ice and snow, appears crucial for an accurate simulation of the net surface energy budget. Likewise, inclusion of a prognostic snow-surface temperature seems necessary, to accurately simulate near-surface thermodynamic processes in the Arctic.     

Simulated sea surface temperature and heat fluxes in different climates of the Baltic Sea

The physical state of the Baltic Sea in possible future climates is approached by numerical model experiments with a regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model driven by different global simulations. Scenarios and recent climate simulations are compared to estimate changes. The sea surface is clearly warmer by 2.9 degrees C in the ensemble mean. The horizontal pattern of average annual mean warming can largely be explained in terms of ice-cover reduction. The transfer of heat from the atmosphere to the Baltic Sea shows a changed seasonal cycle: a reduced heat loss in fall, increased heat uptake in spring, and reduced heat uptake in summer. The interannual variability of surface temperature is generally increased. This is associated with a smoothed frequency distribution in northern basins. The overall heat budget shows increased solar radiation to the sea surface, which is balanced by changes of the other heat flux components.     

Validation of the operational emergency response model at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute using data from etex and the chernobyl accident

The Eulerian atmospheric tracer transport model MATCH (Multiscale Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry model) has been extended with a Lagrangian particle model treating the initial dispersion of pollutants from point sources. The model has been implemented at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute in an emergency response system for nuclear accidents and can be activated on short notice to provide forecast concentration and deposition fields.The model has been used to simulate the transport of the inert tracer released during the ETEX experiment and the transport and deposition of ¹³⁷Cs from the Chernobyl accident. Visual inspection of the results as well as statistical analysis shows that the extent, time of arrival and duration of the tracer cloud, is in good agreement with the observations for both cases, with a tendency towards over-prediction for the first ETEX release. For the Chernobyl case the simulated deposition pattern over Scandinavia and over Europe as a whole agrees with observations when observed precipitation is used in the simulation. When model calculated precipitation is used, the quality of the simulation is reduced significantly and the model fails to predict major features of the observed deposition field.     

Estimating atmospheric turbidity from climate data

Aerosols have several important influences on the climate system. Among the more important of these are their roles in absorbing and scattering radiation, and as condensation nuclei in cloud-forming processes. Despite their importance, knowledge of their spatial and temporal variability and, in turn, their influence on climate, is incomplete. Constraints associated with conventional approaches to measuring atmospheric turbidity – including the requirements for clear skies and costly equipment – have contributed to a paucity of turbidity data. This paper presents a methodology for estimating atmospheric turbidity from readily available surface-weather data, regardless of cloud cover. Using a high-resolution spectral radiation model, clear-sky beam irradiance is parameterized as a function of atmospheric attenuation processes, including scattering and absorption by aerosols. The model is integrated over the day to obtain an expression for estimating potential daily clear-sky beam irradiation. Turbidity can then be estimated by forcing the model with monthly averaged climate data. The methodology can be applied at any location where the requisite climate data are available and therefore holds promise for a more complete, and possibly global, climatology of aerosols.     

Parameterization of wet deposition of sulfate by precipitation rate

A method for the estimation of wet deposition of sulfate is developed using routinely available meteorological data and the observed airborne sulfate concentration. This approach takes into account different mechanisms of precipitation formation that determine sulfate concentration in precipitation water. Four different precipitating cloud types, including cold cloud, warm cloud, stratified layered cloud and convective cloud, according to their precipitation formations are incorporated differently to estimate sulfate concentration in precipitation water. This method is implemented to estimate wet deposition of sulfate in Seoul for the days when the airborne sulfate concentration is available. The estimated wet deposition of sulfate shows that the model slightly overestimates the wet deposition of sulfate especially for the warm cloud case while it does underestimate sulfate deposition for the Bergeron process in developing precipitation particularly when the input airborne sulfate concentration is small. The precipitation amount weighted mean wet deposition of sulfate obtained from the model, overestimates that observed by a factor of 1.6 for this case study. This discrepancy might be associated with non-steady revolutional features of precipitating clouds and the resolvable scaling difference between the model and observation.     

Regional climate forcing of aerosol estimated by a box model for a rural site in Central Europe during summer

In the present work, a box model is applied to estimate the direct climate forcing of aerosol particles for rural air in Central Europe during summertime. In the model, the input parameters reflect regional character: data from satellite observations and other surface measurements are used referring to the selected area, Hungary. In the calculation of direct climate forcing of aerosol particles satellite observations serve as the source of incoming solar radiation intensity data and cloudiness, while different aerosol parameters of the model (mass extinction coefficient, chemical composition, scale height, hygroscopic growth factor, etc.) are based on local measurements. Finally, surface albedo of the area studied was determined on the basis of vegetation cover and precipitation amount. As the summary of our calculations, in Central Europe direct climate forcing of ammonium sulfate is equal to –2.4 W m⁻². The climate forcing of total carbon is composed of two terms. The forcings due to scattering and absorption are –1.0 and +0.2 W m⁻², respectively. In spite of the fact that the mass concentrations of ammonium sulfate and total carbon are similar, their contribution to the aerosol direct forcing is different. We conclude that ammonium sulfate plays the major role in this process and organics have an additional impact.     

Global climate change in the instrumental period

The instrumental period of climate history began in the 18th century with the commencement of routine weather observations at fixed sites. Estimates of global-mean climate (e.g. temperature and precipitation) were not possible, however, until the establishment of extensive observing networks midway through the 19th century. This paper reviews our knowledge of global climate change in the instrumental period. Time series of global-mean temperature and precipitation are examined and a comparison is made between two independent 30-year climatologies: 1931-1960 and 1961-1990. Examples are also provided of regional-scale climate changes. Such assessments are important for two reasons. First, they establish the variability of climate on the time-scale of decades, time-scales upon which it is reasonable to plan economic and socio-political activities. Second, and more specifically, they enable us to quantify the magnitude of global-mean climate change which has occurred over this period. Such detailed diagnostic climate information is a necessary, although not sufficient, prerequisite for the detection of global-scale warming which may have occurred due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Some attention is given to explanations of the observed changes in global-mean climate.     

Investigation of the characteristics of the reflectivity of clouds

This paper investigates some of the reflectivity characteristics that clouds (when modelled as solid bodies) must exhibit to be compatible with observations that the reflecting surface of a cloud (i) appears almost equally bright across its face, (ii) is brightest when the cloud is opposite to the Sun but decreases in brightness as the cloud moves to other positions and (iii) increases in brightness with increasing optical thickness of the cloud in the observer's line of sight. These observations, respectively, are shown to imply that the peak value of the bidirectional total reflectivity from a cloud surface (i) increases in inverse proportion to the cosine of the angle between the Sun and the normal to the cloud surface, as the incident angle increases, (ii) appears to be directed back in the direction of the incident radiation, and (iii) increases as optical thickness of the cloud in the observer's line of sight increases. The results could have application in many fields (e.g. modelling diffuse radiance distributions for cloudy skies).     

Attenuation of UV-B radiation in the atmosphere: Clouds effect,at Qena (Egypt)

The effects of clouds (amount, type and height) on the surface UV-B radiation have been investigated at Qena, Egypt (26°17′, 32°10′, 96 m asl) using 2 years data (2004–2005) carried out by South Valley University (SVU)-meteorological research station. Thus, the characteristics of cloud's statistical property during the study period were employed to evaluate the general feature of the region of this study. However, ≈86% of all the observations were ⩽2 octas and the overcast conditions (8 octas) were very rarely over the study region (only 0.2% of all cases). These observations included 10% low-level clouds, 3.16% mid-level clouds and 7.59% high-level clouds. The dominated types of these clouds are stratocumulus (8.9%) and cirrus (5.8%).The hourly values of cloudless sky UV-B radiation (UV-B₀) and consequently the cloud modification factor (CMF) were estimated. An empirical model was developed for CMF as a function of the amount of cloud at low- and mid-level and high-level clouds. The correlation coefficients were equal to 0.985 and 0.987, respectively. In addition, a general expression of the CMF for situations those are considered as the effect of different clouds was found. The efficiency of this model has been tested in combination with a cloudless sky empirical model using independent data set. For this purpose, the hourly values of UV-B at selected cloudless and cloudy days were estimated. A good agreement was observed between the measured and the predicted values of our model. The mean value of the correlation coefficients of these selected days was 0.98.In addition, the attenuation of UV-B radiation could be determined by considering low- and mid-level and high-level clouds. The reduction of UV-B radiation as a function of cloud amount was non-linear for the both cases. At cloud amount of 100%, UV-B radiation was reduced by 83% on average by the high-level clouds.     

Simulating chemistry–aerosol–cloud–radiation–climate feedbacks over the continental U.S. using the online-coupled Weather Research Forecasting Model with chemistry (WRF/Chem)

The chemistry–aerosol–cloud–radiation–climate feedbacks are simulated using WRF/Chem over the continental U.S. in January and July 2001. Aerosols can reduce incoming solar radiation by up to ?9% in January and ?16% in July and 2-m temperatures by up to 0.16 °C in January and 0.37 °C in July over most of the continental U.S. The NO₂ photolysis rates decrease in July by up to ?8% over the central and eastern U.S. where aerosol concentrations are high but increase by up to 7% over the western U.S. in July and up to 13% over the entire domain in January. Planetary boundary layer (PBL) height reduces by up to ?23% in January and ?24% in July. Temperatures and wind speeds in July in big cities such as Atlanta and New York City reduce at/near surface but increase at higher altitudes. The changes in PBL height, temperatures, and wind speed indicate a more stable atmospheric stability of the PBL and further exacerbate air pollution over areas where air pollution is already severe. Aerosols can increase cloud optical depths in big cities in July, and can lead to 500–5000 cm^?3 cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) at a supersaturation of 1% over most land areas and 10–500 cm^?3 CCN over ocean in both months with higher values over most areas in July than in January, particularly in the eastern U.S. The total column cloud droplet number concentrations are up to 4.9 × 10⁶ cm^?2 in January and up to 11.8 × 10⁶ cm^?2 in July, with higher values over regions with high CCN concentrations and sufficient cloud coverage. Aerosols can reduce daily precipitation by up to 1.1 mm day^?1 in January and 19.4 mm day^?1 in July thus the wet removal rates over most of the land areas due to the formation of small CCNs, but they can increase precipitation over regions with the formation of large/giant CCN. These results indicate potential importance of the aerosol feedbacks and an urgent need for their accurate representations in current atmospheric models to reduce uncertainties associated with climate change predictions.     

Relevance of Hydro-Climatic Change Projection and Monitoring for Assessment of Water Cycle Changes in the Arctic

Rapid changes to the Arctic hydrological cycle challenge both our process understanding and our ability to find appropriate adaptation strategies. We have investigated the relevance and accuracy development of climate change projections for assessment of water cycle changes in major Arctic drainage basins. Results show relatively good agreement of climate model projections with observed temperature changes, but high model inaccuracy relative to available observation data for precipitation changes. Direct observations further show systematically larger (smaller) runoff than precipitation increases (decreases). This result is partly attributable to uncertainties and systematic bias in precipitation observations, but still indicates that some of the observed increase in Arctic river runoff is due to water storage changes, for example melting permafrost and/or groundwater storage changes, within the drainage basins. Such causes of runoff change affect sea level, in addition to ocean salinity, and inland water resources, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Process-based hydrological modeling and observations, which can resolve changes in evapotranspiration, and groundwater and permafrost storage at and below river basin scales, are needed in order to accurately interpret and translate climate-driven precipitation changes to changes in freshwater cycling and runoff. In contrast to this need, our results show that the density of Arctic runoff monitoring has become increasingly biased and less relevant by decreasing most and being lowest in river basins with the largest expected climatic changes.     

A model study of smoke-haze influence on clouds and warm precipitation formation in Indonesia 1997/1998

In the last few decades, fire and smoke-haze occurrence increased in Indonesia by intentionally set land clearing fires and higher fire susceptibility of disturbed forests. Particularly, during El Niño years with prolonged droughts in Indonesia, land clearing fires become uncontrolled wildfires and produce large amounts of gaseous and particulate emissions. This paper investigates the influence of smoke-haze aerosols from such fires on clouds and precipitation over Indonesia during the El Niño event 1997/1998 by numerical modelling. Warm precipitation formation in both layered and convective clouds is calculated dependent on the atmospheric aerosol concentration. In the smoke-haze affected regions of Indonesia, aerosol–cloud interactions induce events with both precipitation suppression and increase compared to a reference simulation without aerosol–cloud interactions. The effect of precipitation suppression is found to dominate with about 2/3 of all precipitation modification events pointing to a prolongation of smoke-haze episodes. The corresponding convective cloud top height of shallow clouds is increased whereas distinct lower deep convective cloud top heights are found. The remaining about 1/3 events are characterised by increased precipitation and cloud liquid water content, accompanied by lower convective cloud top heights of shallow clouds and higher deep convective clouds.     

Pollution and the Planetary Albedo

Addition of cloud nuclei by pollution can lead to an increase in the solar radiation reflected by clouds. The reflection of solar energy by clouds already may have been increased by the addition of man-made cloud nuclei. The albedo of a cloud is proportional to optical thickness for thin clouds, but changes more slowly with increasing thickness. The optical thickness is increased when the number of cloud nuclei is increased. Although the changes are small, the long-term effect on climate can be profound.     

Climate change in the Seychelles: implications for water and coral reefs

The Seychelles is a small island state in the western Indian Ocean that is vulnerable to the effects of climate change. This vulnerability led the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 to express concern over the potential economic and social consequences that may be faced by small island states. Small island states should be prepared to adapt to such changes, especially in view of their dependence on natural resources, such as water and coral reefs, to meet basic human welfare needs. Analysis of long-term data for precipitation, air temperature, and sea-surface temperature indicated that changes are already observable in the Seychelles. The increase in dry spells that resulted in drought conditions in 1999 and the 1998 mass coral bleaching are indicative of the events that are likely to occur under future climate change. Pre-IPCC Third Assessment Report scenarios and the new SRES scenarios are compared for changes in precipitation and air surface temperature for the Seychelles. These intercomparisons indicate that the IS92 scenarios project a much warmer and wetter climate for the Seychelles than do the SRES scenarios. However, a wetter climate does not imply readily available water, but rather longer dry spells with more intense precipitation events. These observations will likely place enormous pressures on water-resources management in the Seychelles. Similarly, sea-surface temperature increases predicted by the HADCM3 model will likely trigger repeated coral-bleaching episodes, with possible coral extinctions within the Seychelles region by 2040. The cover of many coral reefs around the Seychelles have already changed, and the protection of coral-resilient areas is a critical adaptive option.     

Climate change impact on atmospheric nitrogen deposition in northwestern Europe: a model study

A high-resolution chemical transport model, driven by meteorology representing current and future climate, was used to investigate the effects of possible future changes in climate on nitrogen deposition in northwestern Europe. The model system was able to resolve the climatology of precipitation and chemical properties observed in northern Europe during the 1980s, albeit with some underestimation of the temporal and spatial variability of meteorological parameters and chemical components. The results point toward a substantial increase (30% or more) in nitrogen deposition over western Norway as a consequence of increasing precipitation but more moderate changes for other areas. Deposition of oxidized nitrogen will increase more than the deposition of reduced nitrogen. Over Sweden, oxidized nitrogen will increase only marginally and reduced nitrogen will decrease, although annual precipitation is expected to increase here as well. This is probably because more reduced nitrogen will be removed further west in Scandinavia because of the strong increase in precipitation along the Norwegian coast. The total deposition of oxidized nitrogen over Norway is expected to increase from 96 Gg N y(-1) during the current climate to 107 Gg N y(-1) by 2100 due only to changes in climate. The corresponding values for Sweden are more modest, from 137 Gg N y(-1) to 139 Gg N y(-1).     

An assessment of the impact of climate change on air quality at two UK sites

Possible effects of climate change on air quality are studied for two urban sites in the UK, London and Glasgow. Hourly meteorological data were obtained from climate simulations for two periods representing the current climate and a plausible late 21st century climate. Of the meteorological quantities relevant to air quality, significant changes were found in temperature, specific humidity, wind speed, wind direction, cloud cover, solar radiation, surface sensible heat flux and precipitation. Using these data, dispersion estimates were made for a variety of single sources and some significant changes in environmental impact were found in the future climate. In addition, estimates for future background concentrations of NO_x, NO₂, ozone and PM₁₀ upwind of London and Glasgow were made using the meteorological data in a statistical model. These showed falls in NO_x and increases in ozone for London, while a fall in NO₂ was the largest percentage change for Glasgow. Other changes were small. With these background estimates, annual-average concentrations of NO_x, NO₂, ozone and PM₁₀ were estimated within the two urban areas. For London, results averaged over a number of sites showed a fall in NO_x and a rise in ozone, but only small changes in NO₂ and PM₁₀. For Glasgow, the changes in all four chemical species were small. Large-scale background ozone values from a global chemical transport model are also presented. These show a decrease in background ozone due to climate change. To assess the net impact of both large scale and local processes will require models which treat all relevant scales.     

A pesticide emission model (PEM) Part I: model development

The application of pesticides to cultivated soil and crops is a major source of pesticides that are found in the atmosphere and which are transported and deposited to land and water surfaces over distances that range from local to global scales. In this first part of a two-part paper, a pesticide emission model (PEM) is proposed for estimating the exchange with the atmosphere of pesticides applied to soils and crops. The basis of PEM is a one-dimensional numerical solution of the dynamic equations describing the advection and diffusion of heat, moisture and pesticide within the soil column and exchange with the atmosphere through heat transfer, evapotranspiration and volatilization. The soil model is coupled with an atmospheric surface layer and a simple canopy model that includes: the interception of sprayed pesticide by the crop foliage; the partitioning of pesticide within a wet or dry canopy; and, the volatilization of pesticide to the atmosphere or the wash-off to the soil by precipitation. The finite-element technique used for solving the model equations is mass conservative and multi-year periods of simulation are possible while maintaining a proper mass balance of pesticide in the soil. The model is solved using 1200 s time-steps and 49 variably spaced levels in the soil to a depth of 2 m, with the highest vertical resolution (0.002 m spacing) near the soil surface. Similarity theory is used to parameterize the fluxes of heat, moisture and pesticide through the atmospheric surface layer with hourly meteorology being provided by either climate station observations or a meteorological model. In the second part to this paper, the results of an evaluation of PEM are reported.     

Satellite observations of the seasonal cycles of absorbing aerosols in Africa related to the monsoon rainfall, 1995–2008

The link between the African Monsoon systems and aerosol loading in Africa is studied using multi-year satellite observations of UV-absorbing aerosols and rain gauge measurements.The main aerosol types occurring over Africa are desert dust and biomass burning aerosols, which are UV-absorbing. The abundance of these aerosols over Africa is characterised in this paper using residues and Absorbing Aerosol Index (AAI) data from Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) on board ERS-2 and SCanning Imaging Absorption SpectroMeter for Atmospheric ChartograpHY (SCIAMACHY) on board Envisat.Time series of regionally averaged residues from 1995 to 2008 show the seasonal variations of aerosols in Africa. Zonally averaged daily residues over Africa are related to monthly mean precipitation data and show monsoon-controlled atmospheric aerosol loadings. A distinction is made between the West African Monsoon (WAM) and the East African Monsoon (EAM), which have different dynamics, mainly due to the asymmetric distribution of land masses around the equator in the west. The seasonal variation of the aerosol distribution is clearly linked to the seasonal cycle of the monsoonal wet and dry periods in both studied areas.The residue distribution over Africa shows two distinct modes, one associated with dry periods and one with wet periods. During dry periods the residue varies freely, due to aerosol emissions from deserts and biomass burning events. During wet periods the residue depends linearly on the amount of precipitation, due to scavenging of aerosols and the prevention of aerosol emissions from the wet surface. This is most clear over east Africa, where the sources and sinks of atmospheric aerosols are controlled directly by the local climate, i.e. monsoonal precipitation. Here, the wet mode has a mean residue of ?1.4 and the dry mode has a mean residue of ?0.3. During the wet modes a reduction of one residue unit for every 160 mm monthly averaged precipitation was found. Shielding effects due to cloud cover may also play a role in the reduction of the residue during wet periods.A possible influence of aerosols on the monsoon, via aerosol direct and indirect effects, is plausible, but cannot directly be deduced from these data.     

Numerical studies of acidification processes within and below clouds with a flow-through chemical reactor model

A flow-through chemical reactor model has been exercised to assess the importance of various oxidation reactions and cloud processes on wet removal and redistribution of atmospheric pollutants and to investigate the effect of in-cloud acidification on precipitation chemistry at the surface. Preliminary results indicate that in-cloud acidification accounts for more than 60% of the wet deposited acids derived from acidification of initial SO₂, that 42–57% of water-soluble, non-reactive NH₃ and HNO₃ are removed by wet deposition. The pseudo-first-order conversion rate of SO₂ to SO₄²⁻ ranges from 3 to 25% h ⁻¹ depending on initial and boundary conditions.Sensitivity studies have been carried out to test the importance of time evolution of clouds on partitioning of pollutants in the atmosphere and to investigate the variability of precipitation chemistry due to changes in rate constants. The distributions of NH₃ and HNO₃ are found to be dependent largely on the cloud microphysical parameters, while the distributions of H₂O₂ and SO₂ depend largely on initial conditions of both species. Individual physical and chemical mechanisms can determine the overall rate of sulfate wet deposition at different stages of cloud evolution.     

Sensitivity analysis of the CERES-wheat model for variations in CO2 and meteorological factors in Northwest Turkey

Plant growth is very sensitive to variations in atmospheric factors. Possible effects of climate change on plant growth can be estimated and evaluated using the crop growth simulation models. In this study, the CERES (Crop Environment Resource Synthesis)-wheat model was applied to two consequent growing seasons (1997–1998 and 1998–1999) in order to determine the model sensitivity on the changes in several meteorological factors such as air temperature, precipitation, solar radiation and carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration. In the model, the air temperature variations were applied from ±1°C up to ±2°C and CO₂ were changed in the range of 20% to 100%, while the solar radiation, precipitation were varied between 10% and 20%. Biomass and the grain yield of the wheat crop were influenced positively by the increased combination of the solar radiation, air temperature and CO₂. However, low crop responses to the variations in precipitation were unexpected.