A Pragmatic Approach to Grizzly Bear Conservation

Progress in grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) conservation in the Rocky Mountains of Canada and the United States is urgently needed. Human-caused mortality is the appropriate focal point for understanding the problem. This issue has a number of dimensions, but the human dimensions are by far the most complex and difficult to analyze. Conducting analyses and implementing conservation plans at the site or local level makes optimal use of humans' limited cognitive capabilities. Neither maintaining the status quo in grizzly bear conservation nor relying solely on major reform is a viable strategy. Instead, concerned people should take a pragmatic approach to developing innovative processes for forming reason-based public opinions that in turn inform effective public policies. There are many benefits to such an approach and, given the lack of viable alternatives, it should be tested with a pilot project by the appropriate people and organizations.     

Science, Ethical Arguments, and Management in the Preservation of Land for Grizzly Bear Conservation

Abstract: Environmental groups advocate the preservation of an area within British Columbia's coastal temperate rainforest as a sanctuary for grizzly bears (    Ursus arctos horribilis ). Debate among government, industry, and environmental spokespersons has provided arguments but no resolution. We have applied to this issue available biological knowledge on grizzly bears and the arguments of a range of ethical theories. The theories of three professionally trained ethicists were included: Tom Regan, Holmes Rolston III, and Arne Naess. Aldo Leopold's prominent position in the conservation movement justifies his "land ethic" as a fourth ethical theory. All four theories agree that the area should be preserved. Contrary to this fundamental agreement, the theories diverge when tested against a "hard" conservation scenario, the conflict between the protection of the last surviving grizzly bears versus the survival of a culturally distinct human tribe. Application of the principles developed by Regan and Naess recommend that human interests should override the preservation of grizzly bears, whereas Leopold's and Rolston's arguments favor the preservation of the area for the bears. Our work can be used as a model of how the gap between biological sciences, ethical theories, and ecosystem management can be bridged successfully.     

Demographic Analyses of a Hunted Black Bear Population with Access to a Refuge

Studying one of two bear species not experiencing widespread population decline, provides insight into the population responses of the six bear species that are in decline and into responses of other long-lived species for which data are difficult to collect. Black bear ( Ursus americanus ) sanctuaries were established in North Carolina (U.S.) in 1971 to protect core populations of bears and to provide dispersing bears for hunting. Population index values, derived from counts of bears visiting bait stations, were significantly greater inside the Pisgah Bear Sanctuary than outside and were greater along trails than along roads. Survivorship of bears outfitted with transmitter collars was greater for sanctuary bears alone than for sanctuary plus non-sanctuary bears. Monte Carlo analyses of Leslie matrices showed that the bear population in the sanctuary would be stable if cub survivorship, p ₀, was about O.7, and the population in the sanctuary plus the surrounding area would be stable if p ₀ was about 0.83. Estimates of litter survivorship in North Carolina indicate, however, that p ₀ can not exceed O.71. Overall, the matrix analyses indicated an ultimate population decline in the total bear population (sanctuary plus surrounding area). The population index of the bait station did not show a discernible decline. The Pisgah Bear Sanctuary provides dispersing bears for hunters and provides some protection for the resident bears. The sanctuary may not, however, provide resident bears with enough protection to maintain a viable breeding population within its boundaries. Reducing human access to bears and their habitat appears crucial, either by making large sanctuaries or by eliminating roads.     

Population Viability Estimates: Theory and Practice for a Wild Gorilla Population

The logic of demographic modeling, the apparent simplicity of its quantifiably substantiated answers, and the ready availability of software correlate with increasing use of demographic modeling as the means of applying biology to the conservation of potentially endangered populations. I investigated that use by considering a small population (about 300 individuals) of a large, forest-dwelling mammal of the tropics, the Virunga gorilla ( Gorilla gorilla ) of Zaire, Uganda, and Rwanda. Because censuses of forest populations are so inaccurate and data on variance of some parameters takes so long to collect, models might not be broadly applicable. Therefore, simple demographic indices of potential extinction should replace sophisticated models. The current best index could be problematic, however, because it is based on detecting adult mortality, perhaps the most difficult demographic parameter to measure. Models of the Virunga gorilla population that incorporate aspects of demographic heterogeneity valuably indicate genetic and demographic persistence for several hundred years. Deterministic change in habitat is a greater threat than stochastic demographic variation, and yet our ecological ignorance is such that we could not begin to model the consequences of removal of even the main food plant. We must add to our ability to model outcomes of demographic perturbation a far greater understanding of the processes by which the perturbations occur. Demography allows us to model demographic response to demographic change, but we usually need ecology to tell us how the threat produced the demographic change in the first place. In a time of change, accurate prediction requires ecological understanding of process as well as demographic understanding of outcome.     

Using Population Viability Criteria to Assess Strategies to Minimize Disease Threats for an Endangered Carnivore

Outbreaks of infectious disease represent serious threats to the viability of many vertebrate populations, but few studies have included quantitative evaluations of alternative approaches to the management of disease. The most prevalent management approach is monitoring for and rapid response to an epizootic. An alternative is vaccination of a subset of the free‐living population (i.e., a “vaccinated core”) such that some individuals are partially or fully immune in the event of an epizootic. We developed a simulation model describing epizootic dynamics, which we then embedded in a demographic simulation to assess these alternative approaches to managing rabies epizootics in the island fox (Urocyon littoralis), a species composed of only 6 small populations on the California Channel Islands. Although the monitor and respond approach was superior to the vaccinated‐core approach for some transmission models and parameter values, this type of reactive management did not protect the population from rabies under many disease‐transmission assumptions. In contrast, a logistically feasible program of prophylactic vaccination for part of the wild population yielded low extinction probabilities across all likely disease‐transmission scenarios, even with recurrent disease introductions. Our use of a single metric of successful management—probability of extreme endangerment (i.e., quasi extinction)—to compare very different management approaches allowed an objective assessment of alternative strategies for controlling the threats posed by infectious disease outbreaks. Utilización de Criterios de Viabilidad Poblacional para Evaluar Estrategias para Minimizar Amenazas de Enfermedades para un Carnívoro en Peligro     

Choosing a Management Strategy: Two Structured Decision-Making Methods for Evaluating the Predictions of Stochastic Simulation Models

We describe two structured decision-making methods—one using a hierarchy of goals and a second using ranking on the sum of weighted criteria—that may be useful for many practical conservation problems, particularly when advisory groups evaluate the output of simulation models. We illustrate both methods by applying them to the problem of choosing a management strategy to address the "mobbing" problem in endangered Hawaiian monk seals. Both methods require estimates of the probabilities of various outcomes, such as a population size of more than 400 seals after 20 years under a specific management regime. We used a simulation model of a small monk seal population to generate these probabilities. Both methods provide an explicit, well-documented, and reproducible decision process that helps justify the decision. Furthermore, they are easy for those untrained in decision analysis to understand and use, they focus discussion on management objectives, they facilitate an examination of trade-offs in the light of multiple and sometimes conflicting objectives, they are suitable for use in workshops, and, at least in our example, they lead to management recommendations that are not highly sensitive to minor changes in probability estimates or other factors.     

Population Viability Analysis for a Small Population of Red-Cockaded Woodpeckers and an Evaluation of Enhancement Strategies

We performed a series of population and pedigree analyses to examine the viability of a small Red-cockaded Woodpecker ( Picoides borealis ) population located at the Savannah River Site, in Barnwell and Aiken counties of South Carolina. The population's existence and future survival are precarious. As few as four individuals, including just one breeding pair, comprised this population in 1985. Now, primarily because of experimental transformation of birds from other areas, the population has increased to 25. As of 1990, genealogy pedigree analysis showed that the respective contribution of 14 founders to the extant population has not been equal. Founder gender equivalents are low (5.4) but could reach 9.2 if poorly-represented founders were to produce offspring. The fraction of founder gene diversity retained in the current population is 0.91. Successful recovery strategies would ensure 95% probability of population survival while maintaining 90% heterozygosity for 200 years. Viability analyses indicated that, depending on relative effects of inbreeding depression and stochastic environmental events, the Savannah River Site population has a 68–100% chance of extinction during this period. Annual translocation into the population of at least three females and two males for a 10-year period will achieve a 96% probability of survival for 200 years. Even with translocation of numerous males and females per year (up to 50 of each), the 90% heterozygosity goal may not be achieved. We discuss recommendations for choosing individuals for translocation logistical constraints on achieving recovery objectives, and limitations of our modeling approach.     

Use of Population Viability Analysis to Evaluate CITES Trade‐Management Options for Threatened Marine Fishes

Abstract: Achieving multiple conservation objectives can be challenging, particularly under high uncertainty. Having agreed to limit seahorse (Hippocampus) exports to sustainable levels, signatories to the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) were offered the option of a single 10‐cm minimum size limit (MSL) as an interim management measure for all Hippocampus species (≥34). Although diverse stakeholders supported the recommended MSL, its biological and socioeconomic implications were not assessed quantitatively. We combined population viability analysis, model sensitivity analysis, and economic information to evaluate the trade‐off between conservation threat to and long‐term cumulative income from these exploited marine fishes of high conservation concern. We used the European long‐snouted seahorse (Hippocampus guttulatus) as a representative species to compare the performance of MSLs set at alternative biological reference points. Our sensitivity analyses showed that in most of our scenarios, setting the MSL just above size at maturity (9.7 cm in H. guttulatus) would not prevent exploited populations from becoming listed as vulnerable. By contrast, the relative risk of decline and extinction were almost halved—at a cost of only a 5.6% reduction in long‐term catches—by increasing the MSL to the size reached after at least one full reproductive season. On the basis of our analysis, a precautionary increase in the MSL could be compatible with sustaining fishers' livelihoods and international trade. Such management tactics that aid species conservation and have minimal effects on long term catch trends may help bolster the case for CITES trade management of other valuable marine fishes.     

Factors influencing the willingness to pay for sustainable tourism: a case of mass tourism destinations

A 17-month research programme focused on development of an Education for Sustainability (EFS) Global Media Network at Ball State University Indiana was recently concluded. The study results include some surprising conclusions related to the contradictions between the benefits of education for global sustainability and the use of technology to facilitate that educational process in achieving a more sustainable world. This article provides an overview of the EFS Network research programme and a discussion of some of the key results and conclusions related to advantages and disadvantages of technology-based learning. The article then addresses the environmental impact of computer technology manufacturing, use, and after-use. Research findings are utilized to illustrate the ecological footprint of computer-based education. The article concludes with a discussion about achieving a balance between the need for global-to-local sustainable education and the environmental impact of technology use for sustainable education.     

Socioeconomic Factors that Affect Artisanal Fishers' Readiness to Exit a Declining Fishery

Abstract:  The emerging world crisis created by declining fish stocks poses a challenge to resource users and managers. The problem is particularly acute in poor nations, such as those in East Africa, where fishing is an important subsistence activity but high fishing intensity and use of destructive gear have resulted in declining catches. In this context developing effective management strategies requires an understanding of how fishers may respond to declines in catch. We examined the readiness of 141 Kenyan fishers to stop fishing under hypothetical scenarios of declines in catch and how socioeconomic conditions influenced their decisions. As expected, the proportion of fishers that would exit the fishery increased with magnitude of decline in catch. Fishers were more likely to say they would stop fishing if they were from households that had a higher material style of life and a greater number of occupations. Variables such as capital investment in the fishery and the proportion of catch sold had weak, nonsignificant relationships. Our finding that fishers from poorer households would be less likely to exit a severely declining fishery is consistent with the literature on poverty traps, which suggests the poor are unable to mobilize the necessary resources to overcome either shocks or chronic low-income situations and consequently may remain in poverty. This finding supports the proposition that wealth generation and employment opportunities directed at the poorest fishers may help reduce fishing effort on overexploited fisheries, but successful interventions such as these will require an understanding of the socioeconomic context in which fishers operate.     

The Sensitivity of Population Viability Analysis to Uncertainty about Habitat Requirements: Implications for the Management of the Endangered Southern Brown Bandicoot

Abstract:  Whenever population viability analysis (PVA) models are built to help guide decisions about the management of rare and threatened species, an important component of model building is the specification of a habitat model describing how a species is related to landscape or bioclimatic variables. Model-selection uncertainty may arise because there is often a great deal of ambiguity about which habitat model structure best approximates the true underlying biological processes. The standard approach to incorporate habitat models into PVA is to assume the best habitat model is correct, ignoring habitat-model uncertainty and alternative model structures that may lead to quantitatively different conclusions and management recommendations. Here we provide the first detailed examination of the influence of habitat-model uncertainty on the ranking of management scenarios from a PVA model. We evaluated and ranked 6 management scenarios for the endangered southern brown bandicoot ( Isoodon obesulus ) with PVA models, each derived from plausible competing habitat models developed with logistic regression. The ranking of management scenarios was sensitive to the choice of the habitat model used in PVA predictions. Our results demonstrate the need to incorporate methods into PVA that better account for model uncertainty and highlight the sensitivity of PVA to decisions made during model building. We recommend that researchers search for and consider a range of habitat models when undertaking model-based decision making and suggest that routine sensitivity analyses should be expanded to include an analysis of the impact of habitat-model uncertainty and assumptions.     

A Revealed Preference Approach to Estimating Supply Curves for Ecosystem Services: Use of Auctions to Set Payments for Soil Erosion Control in Indonesia

Abstract:  To supply ecosystem services, private landholders incur costs. Knowledge of these costs is critical for the design of conservation-payment programs. Estimating these costs accurately is difficult because the minimum acceptable payment to a potential supplier is private information. We describe how an auction of payment contracts can be designed to elicit this information during the design phase of a conservation-payment program. With an estimate of the ecosystem-service supply curve from a pilot auction, conservation planners can explore the financial, ecological, and socioeconomic consequences of alternative scaled-up programs. We demonstrate the potential of our approach in Indonesia, where soil erosion on coffee farms generates downstream ecological and economic costs. Bid data from a small-scale, uniform-price auction for soil-conservation contracts allowed estimates of the costs of a scaled-up program, the gain from integrating biophysical and economic data to target contracts, and the trade-offs between poverty alleviation and supply of ecosystem services. Our study illustrates an auction-based approach to revealing private information about the costs of supplying ecosystem services. Such information can improve the design of programs devised to protect and enhance ecosystem services.     

不同尺度中国大陆灵长目物种丰富度的地理格局及其与环境因子和人类活动的关系

物种丰富度的分布格局及其成因有多种假说,其中生态假说中能量假说、生境异质性假说和气候假说目前被广泛接受.本文通过代表不同假说的26个环境变量,同时也利用人口密度、农田牧场面积表征人类活动强度,分别在100 km×100 km、200 km×200 km和400 km×400 km尺度上,基于特征值的空域滤波模型的方法分析中国大陆灵长类物种丰富度与环境因子和人类活动之间的关系.结果表明,在所有分析的空间尺度上,中国大陆灵长类物种丰富度呈现纬度梯度格局,即由南向北逐渐递减.其中,华南区的滇西南山地省和滇南边地省是物种最为丰富的区域,东北区、华北区、蒙新区和青藏区大部分地区基本上没有分布.在不同空间尺度上,虽然影响中国大陆灵长类物种丰富度大尺度格局的主要因素不相一致,但环境能量假说(以潜在蒸发散表示)和气候假说(以年均温度表示)相互作用,共同影响中国大陆灵长类物种丰富度大尺度地理分布格局.当表征人类活动相关的指标和环境因子一起分析时,结果表明人类活动强度对灵长类物种丰富度地理格局有影响,这对加强灵长类物种保护有参考意义.     

Factors leading to the evolution and maintenance of a male ornament in territorial species

Male ornamentation is assumed to have evolved primarily from selection by female mate choice. Yet this is only one possible reason for ornament evolution. Ornaments might also be useful in aggressive competition by improving opponent assessment between males, or they might function to enhance signal detection by making males more conspicuous in the environment. We tested both these ideas in territorial Anolis lizards in which female choice is either absent or secondary to males competing for territories that overlap female home ranges. Male tail crests only evolved in species in which territory neighbors were distant, consistent with the signal detection hypothesis. Once the tail crest had evolved, however, it seems to have become a signal in itself, with variation in the frequency and size of tail crests within species correlating with variables predicted by the aggressive competition hypothesis. Our study presents an apparent example of a male ornament in which the selection pressure leading to variation among species in ornament expression is different from the selection pressure acting on variation within species. The Anolis tail crest is therefore likely to be an exaptation. We caution that conclusions made on the evolution of male ornaments are dependent on the phylogenetic perspective adopted by a study. Studies restricted to single species are useful for identifying selection pressures in contemporary settings (i.e., the current utility of traits), but may lead to erroneous conclusions on the factors that initially lead to the origin of traits.     

农户参与三氯杀螨醇替代技术培训积极性的影响因素分析

病虫害综合防治（1PM）技术旨在结合生物、农学及物理防治方法,合理使用化学农药,降低农业生产成本,保护农业劳动者健康和生态环境.以联合国开发计划署（UNDP）、环境保护部对外合作中心和全国农业技术推广中心联合启动实施的“中国含滴滴涕三氯杀螨醇生产控制及IPM技术替代全额示范项目”为例,系统分析影响农户参与IPM培训积极性的主要因素.结果表明,农户种植规模对农户参与IPM培训的积极性影响显著,学员性别和年龄不是影响其参加培训积极性的显著因素;学员参加培训的次数越多,其对IPM技术的采纳率越高.农民田间学校应更多地吸收老人和妇女参加三氯杀螨醇替代技术及IPM培训     

Combining the Species-Area-Habitat Relationship and Environmental Cluster Analysis to Set Conservation Priorities: a Study in the Zhoushan Archipelago, China

Abstract: Identification of priority areas is a fundamental goal in conservation biology. Because of a lack of detailed information about species distributions, conservation targets in the Zhoushan Archipelago (China) were established on the basis of a species–area–habitat relationship (choros model) combined with an environmental cluster analysis (ECA). An environmental‐distinctness index was introduced to rank areas in the dendrogram obtained with the ECA. To reduce the effects of spatial autocorrelation, the ECA was performed considering spatial constraints. To test the validity of the proposed index, a principal component analysis–based environmental diversity approach was also performed. The priority set of islands obtained from the spatially constrained cluster analysis coupled with the environmental‐distinctness index had high congruence with that from the traditional environmental‐diversity approach. Nevertheless, the environmental‐distinctness index offered the advantage of giving hotspot rankings that could be readily integrated with those obtained from the choros model. Although the Wilcoxon matched‐pairs test showed no significant difference among the rankings from constrained and unconstrained clustering process, as indicated by cophenetic correlation, spatially constrained cluster analysis performed better than the unconstrained cluster analysis, which suggests the importance of incorporating spatial autocorrelation into ECA. Overall, the integration of the choros model and the ECA showed that the islands Liuheng, Mayi, Zhoushan, Fodu, and Huaniao may be good candidates on which to focus future efforts to conserve regional biodiversity. The 4 types of priority areas, generated from the combination of the 2 approaches, were explained in descending order on the basis of their conservation importance: hotspots with distinct environmental conditions, hotspots with general environmental conditions, areas that are not hotspots with distinct environmental conditions, and areas that are not hotspots with general environmental conditions.