预测有机化合物对水蚤EC50值的片段常数法

根据217种化合物建立了估算有机化合物对水蚤EC     

估算多氯联苯在鱼体中生物富集因子的片段常数法

根据４０种ＰＣＢ的实测数据建立了估算ＰＣＢ在鱼体中生物富集系数的片段常数模型,建模化合物的ｌｇＢＣＦ在２．６５－５．９７之间,ｌｇＫｏｗ则在３．８８－８．１８之间,由于特定氯取代位的影响以及在此Ｋｏｗ范围内ＢＣＦ与化合物憎水性之间的非线性关系,简单的片段常数模型不能有效估算ＢＣＦ。     

苯乙酸类有机污染物分配系数和酸常数同时测定方法的研究

本文用分光光度法同时测定了十四种苯乙酸类化合物在正辛醇/水及环己烷/水中的分配系数及酸常数;对其中八种化合物在不同pH时的溶解度进行了测定,并根据相关方程进行了估算,估算值与实验值吻合较好。     

多组分苯胺类混合物对发光菌的抑制毒性

以淡水发光菌——青海弧菌(Q67)为指示生物,96微孔板为实验反应载体,微板光度计为发光强度测试设备,测定了苯胺、邻甲基苯胺、对甲基苯胺、邻硝基苯胺、对硝基苯胺及其混合物对发光菌的发光抑制毒性,应用非线性最小二乘拟合技术与剂量加和(DA)及独立作用(IA)原理研究了混合物的毒性规律.1)分别测定每种化合物的剂量-效应数据并进行非线性拟合.结果表明,5种苯胺类化合物的剂量-效应曲线(DRC)均可用Logit与Weibull函数有效表征,从这些模型估算的半数效应浓度负对数值(-logEC50)分别为2.11、2.35、2.49、3.60和3.88(EC50单位:mol·L-1),可知其对发光菌的毒性大小顺序为:苯胺<邻甲基苯胺<对甲基苯胺<邻硝基苯胺<对硝基苯胺.2)根据组分EC50、EC10和EC1设计3个等效应浓度比混合物进行混合物毒性实验,并对混合物剂量-效应数据进行非线性拟合得到混合物DRC.结果表明,混合物DRC可用Box-Cox-Logit与Box-Cox-Weibull函数有效表征.3)根据单一化合物DRC模型,分别应用剂量加和(DA)与独立作用(IA)模型对混合物DRC进行预测.结果表明,无论考察混合浓度比例还是效应水平,剂量加和模型都能准确预测苯胺类混合物的毒性,而独立作用模型倾向于高估混合物毒性.     

部分取代苯类在江水中的生物降解与结构相关性研究^1）

测定了27种取代苯类化合物在松花江江水中的生物降解性，采用量子化学MOPAC6．0－AM1法计算了化合物的分子量（MW），生成热（Hf)，分子总表面积（TSA）及高占有轨道能（EHOMO），结合辛配醇／水分配系数lgP及酸解离常数pKa对其中22种化合物BOD值进行了多元线性回归分析，得到如下模型：BOD＝105.73-0.439MW-0.076Hf-6.660lgP n=22,R^2=0.821,SE=8.250,F=27.56,P=0.000应用所得模型对其余5个化合物的生物降解性进行了预测，只有一个化合物相的相对预测误差大于20％，为20．8％，平均预测误差为12．4％。     

低浓度下4个取代苯污染物与硝酸铅的混合对发光菌的联合毒性

多种污染物混合特别是低浓度下的混合对生物的联合毒性是生态毒理学研究的热点之一。选择了3类污染物苯酚、间甲基苯酚、苯胺、对硝基苯胺、硝酸铅，采用美国微板光度计测定了它们对发光菌青海弧菌．Q67（Vibrio-qinghaiensissp-Q67）的单一及联合毒性。应用非线性拟合技术模拟了这5种物质及其混合物的剂量．效应曲线，硝酸铅可用Logit模型模拟，其它4个物质能用Weibull模型准确描述，所有拟合相关系数在0．98以上，均方根误差在O．02以下。根据纯物质的EC50值，获得这5个物质的毒性强弱顺序：硝酸铅〉对硝基苯胺〉间甲基苯酚〉苯酚〉苯胺。混合实验设计了各物质在EC50、EC1、无观察效应浓度（noobserved effectcon centration，NOEC）比例的混合。用浓度加和（doseaddition，DA）和独立作用模型（independentaction，IA）对混合物毒性进行预测。IA基本准确预测了这5个物质在各自EC50混合的毒性。DA与队模型都稍微过高地预测了以EC。及NOEC浓度比例混合的联合毒性，但都在毒理学实验容许的范围之内。这5个物质以NOEC混合时对测试生物Q67没有产生明显毒性，但是还不能判定这些物质在此浓度下混合是安全的。污染物在各自的NOEC浓度下混合是否对其它生物有潜在的威胁还需更多毒理学实验支持。     

有机毒物对水蚤的急性毒性

对水蚤的毒笥试验数据是被广泛用于评价化合物水生生态效应的重要依据，检测有机化合物的毒性时，需特别注意待测物的难溶性，挥发性及易光解性，检测了多种氯代芳烃的ＥＣ５０值，其１８ｈ的结果与２４ｈ的结果相近，检测了２４种硝基芳烃的毒性，不同方法计算的ＥＣ５０值一致。     

有机污染物对发光菌和鱼的毒性相关性研究

研究有机污染物对不同水生生物毒性的种间关系有助于探讨有机污染物对水生生物的毒性作用模式。本文应用1 470种有机化合物对发光菌的毒性数据和949种有机化合物对鱼的毒性数据,研究有机化合物对发光菌和鱼的种间毒性作用模式。结果表明,有机化合物对发光菌和鱼的毒性呈正相关,但种间相关性较差。通过计算毒性比率TR值表明多数类别有机化合物具有相似的种间毒性作用模式。基线和弱惰性化合物对发光菌和鱼的毒性均与辛醇水分配系数log Kow具有良好的线性关系,这说明基线和弱惰性化合物在发光菌和鱼体内的残余量CBR值均为一个常数。这些化合物对发光菌和鱼具有相似的毒性作用模式和生物吸收过程。另外,一些亲水性化合物的log TR值具有较大的种间差异,即对发光菌和鱼的毒性效应具有较大的种间差异,表明亲水性化合物对发光菌为反应型化合物,而对鱼为麻醉型化合物。有机化合物对发光菌和鱼的毒性种间相关性通过引入疏水性参数得到了一定的改善,这表明这些亲水性化合物毒性效应的种间差异有一部分归因于有机化合物在发光菌和鱼体内的生物富集不同,而不是由于与生物分子的反应性不同。这些亲水性化合物相对于鱼的腮和皮肤更容易通过发光菌的细胞膜,与生物分子发生化学反应,从而具有较高的毒性效应。Log Kow大于7的化合物对发光菌和鱼均具有较低的毒性,说明有机化合物在生物体内的富集能力对有机化合物剩余毒性的判别起着重要作用。     

通用似化学法在水环境参数计算中的应用

通用似化学(Universal Quasi-Chemical)法是计算水环境参数的一个新方法。本文使用该方法计算了23种有机化合物的活度系数。然后使用这些活度系数估算了某些有机物的辛醇/水分配系数、水溶度和亨利定律常数。对于这些有机物,必须获得在计算中所用的结构参数。最后利用这些系数和常数来估算有机污染物的生物降解速度常数、生物吸收常数和沉积物/水分配系数。结果表明,计算的辛醇/水分配系数的平均相对误差(计算值和实测值的对数值之差除以实测值的对数值)为0.11。     

吡虫清等4种新农药的水生态安全性评价

以斜生栅列藻（Scendesmus obliquus)、大型蚤（Daphnia magna）和斑马鱼（Brachydanio rerio）为试验生物，在实验室条件下测定了吡虫清、吡嗪酮、恶草酮和精喹禾灵4种新农药对水生生物的急性毒性IC50值或LC50值，并进行了安全性评价。结果表明，杀虫剂吡虫清对水蚤极毒，对鱼类高毒，对藻类低毒；杀虫剂吡嗪酮对水蚤和鱼类低毒，对藻类中等毒性；除草剂恶草酮对藻类高毒，对水蚤和鱼类中等毒性；除草剂精喹禾灵对藻类高毒，对水蚤中等毒性，对鱼类高毒。     

Modeling agricultural non-point source pollution in a high-precipitation coastal area of China

Non-point source （NPS） pollution simulation in the high-precipitation coastal areas of China is difficult because varying annual typhoon incidence leads to highly contrasting rainfall patterns in dry years and wet years. An IMPULSE （Integrated Model of Non-point Sources Pollution Processes） based NPS model of the Changtan Reservoir watershed, which is a typical high-precipitation coastal area in China, was established based on the analysis of point and NPS pollution data, a digital elevation model, and data on land-use, soil, meteorology, economy, and agricultural management practice. Pre-processed pre-rain- fall soil moisture levels were introduced during the simulation to model the effects of typhoons on hydrology. Rainfall events were simulated sequentially through the year and the model was calibrated and verified using hydrological and water quality data. Accuracy of the simulated rainfall runoff and water quality in the Changtan watershed was found to be acceptable. The study showed that the NPS modeling system could be applied to the simulation and prediction ofNPS loadings in the Changtan Reservoir watershed.     

淡水水生态基准方法学研究:数据筛选与模型计算

水生态基准研究的核心是水生态基准方法学,如何鉴于现有的生态毒理学数据推导出科学合理的基准值,并达到切实保护水生生物的目的,是水生态基准研究的重点。论文从淡水水生态基准方法学中数据筛选和模型计算出发,系统地阐述和比较了现有方法学中关于数据的数量和质量、本土物种数据和非本土物种数据、实验室试验数据和野外现场试验数据、常规测试指标和非常规测试指标以及数据的整理等数据筛选原则,并对评估因子法、物种敏感度分布曲线、种间关联预测以及生态毒理模型等水生态基准的计算模型进行比较。参照国外水质基准推导的过程及我国水生态系统的特征,发展我国水生态基准研究中数据的筛选原则以及科学合理的基准计算方法,以期为建立我国淡水水生态基准推导方法学提供研究基础和科学依据。     

Simulation of annual productivity and long-term population trends of white-winged doves in the Tamaulipan Biotic Province

We present a model that synthesizes decades of field data on white-winged doves (Zenaida asiatica asiatica; WWDO) in the Tamaulipan Biotic Province. The model is represented as a discrete-time, deterministic compartment model based on difference equations with a one-week time step designed to simulate annual productivity and long-term trends in abundance. We evaluated the model by comparing simulated annual productivity and long-term population trends to field data. Based on simulation results, we identified apparent inconsistencies in the database; we could not generate the observed annual production index with the model parameterized based on field nest success and survivorship data, nor could we generate a stable long-term population trend with the model parameterized based on suggested sustainable harvest rates and empirically-based estimates of migratory return rates. Simulation results suggest that nest success might be closer to 22% (rather than 35%). A similar trend resulted when simulated hunting pressure was increased by 25% (to 31%), or return rates of migrating juveniles and adults were decreased by 5.5 and 5.0%, to 69 and 77%, respectively, with all other values at the baseline level. For these reasons, until better estimates of nest success and migratory return rates are available, model predictions must be viewed with caution.     

A Habitat-Based Metapopulation Model of the California Gnatcatcher

We present an analysis of the metapopulation dynamics of the federally threatened coastal California Gnatcatcher (Polioptila c. californica) for an approximately 850 km² region of Orange County, California. We developed and validated a habitat suitability model for this species using data on topography, vegetation, and locations of gnatcatcher pair observations. Using this habitat model, we calculated the spatial structure of the metapopulation, including size and location of habitat patches and the distances among them. We used data based on field studies to estimate parameters such as survival, fecundity, dispersal, and catastrophes, and combined these parameters with the spatial structure to build a stage-structured, stochastic, spatially-explicit metapopulation model. The model predicted a fast decline and high risk of population extinction with most combinations of parameters. Results were most sensitive to density-dependent effects, the probability of weather-related catastrophes, adult survival, and adult fecundity. Based on data used in the model, the greatest difference in results was given when the simulation's time horizon was only a few decades, suggesting that modeling based on longer or shorter time horizons may underestimate the effects of alternative management actions.     

Modelling of paralytic shellfish toxin biotransformations in the course of Crassostrea gigas detoxification kinetics

The aim of this study was to evaluate the importance of biotransformation of paralytic shellfish toxins during the detoxification process in contaminated oysters. Mathematical models based upon the detoxification patterns of digestive gland and other tissues were developed. It was demonstrated that biotransformations do not seem to play an important role in digestive gland or other tissue detoxification kinetics with our data set. Moreover, different toxin transfers from digestive gland toward other tissues were investigated. No significant transfer was highlighted in our data set. These first conclusions were drawn after comparing the results obtained from 13 biotransformations and identifiable transfer scenarios. Finally, to determine a more robust model, all 12 states corresponding to toxic compounds and tissues were aggregated into a single state model. The best adjustment was obtained with a simple one-compartment model based on total flesh toxicity with elimination rate expressed by a function depending on initial concentrations of GTX3 and GTX2 (i.e. the two major toxic compounds found in contaminated oysters).     

A modeling system for drinking water sources and its application to Jiangdong Reservoir in Xiamen city

Drinking water sources are highly valued by authorities for safeguarding the life of a city. Models are widely applied as important and effective tools in the management of water sources. However, it is difficult to apply models in water source management because water managers are often not equipped with the professional knowledge and operational skills necessary for making use of the models. This paper introduces a drinking water source simulation and prediction system that consists of a watershed model, a hydrological model and a water quality model. This system provides methods and technical guidance for the conventional management of water sources and emergency water event response. In this study, the sub-models of the system were developed based on the data of the Jiangdong Reservoir in Xiamen, and the model validation was based on local monitoring data. The hydrological model and water quality model were integrated by computer programming, and the watershed model was indirectly integrated into the system through a network platform. Furthermore, three applications for Jiangdong Reservoir water protection utilizing the system were introduced in this paper, including a conventional simulation, an emergency simulation, and an emergency measures evaluation.     

基于生态过程模型和森林清查数据的森林生长量估算对比研究

利用遥感驱动的生态过程模型-Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator （BEPS）、2001-2006年国家森林资源连续清查数据（一类清查-样地尺度）和2003-2009年森林资源规划设计调查数据（二类调查-区域尺度）,分别计算江西省吉安市的森林生态系统生长量,从不同空间尺度和森林类型对3种数据源估算的森林生长量进行了分析。结果表明,样点尺度上,BEPS模型模拟的森林生长量（4.18 Mg·hm^-2·a^-1）低于群落生长量（5.86 Mg·hm^-2·a^-1）,与乔木层生长量（4.29 Mg·hm^-2·a^-1）基本一致,模型模拟结果与两者的拟合R2分别为0.48和0.43。区域尺度上,BEPS模型模拟、二类调查数据计算的群落及乔木层生长量分别为4.65、4.36和3.34 Mg·hm^-2·a^-1,BEPS模型估算的吉安市各县森林总生长量与二类调查数据计算的群落、乔木层生长总量拟合R2分别达0.84和0.83。一类清查数据计算结果高于二类清查数据计算结果,BEPS模型模拟森林生长量分别与基于一类清查数据计算的乔木层生长量及二类调查数据群落生长量较为一致。从研究区两种主要森林类型来看,常绿阔叶林年平均生长量高于常绿针叶林,常绿针叶林与模型估算结果差异小于常绿阔叶林。最后利用模型估算了研究区2001-2010年平均生长量,为认识研究区的森林生长空间分布差异及更新森林生物量提供支持。     

天津市环境监测元数据模式

元数据技术是目前环境监测信息管理的发展趋势 ,文章对基于元数据的天津市环境监测信息共享模式进行了探索与研究 ,提出了元数据系统功能及内容框架的解决方案。     

Application of a three-dimensional eutrophication model for the Beijing Guanting Reservoir, China

The Beijing Guanting Reservoir (BGR) is located northwest of Beijing and has been an important water supply reservoir ever since the construction of a dam near the town of Guanting in 1954. As a result of excessive nutrients and organic carbon loadings from the drainage basin over the last several decades, the BGR suffers from eutrophication as well as other contamination problems and has not been used as a drinking water supply reservoir since 1997. As a management step to restore the reservoir's water quality, a numerical model was developed based on the environmental fluid dynamics code (EFDC) framework. The model simulated three phytoplankton species based on the observed cyanobacteria, green algae, and diatom concentrations in 2004 for the Yongding arm of the reservoir, which is separated from the rest of the reservoir by a sand bar. The model was calibrated with vertical temperature profiles as well as the observed chlorophyll a and nutrients concentrations in the water column. The calibrated model was further applied to investigate management scenarios, which include reduction in external loadings of nutrients with constructed wetlands, biomanipulation, and transferring water from CeTian Reservoir. All three scenarios can reduce the peak chlorophyll a levels in the reservoir. The background nutrients were high, and reducing the external nutrients was effective only after a reduction in background nutrients after phytoplankton growth. The biomanipulation and water transfer scenarios could also delay the occurrence of the peak chlorophyll a. Because the model was developed based on one year of data, the model can only reveal the short-term effects of applying the management scenarios. Future studies will consider the long-term processes, such as diagenesis, when data are available to predict the long-term effects of the scenarios.     

Simulating dynamics of managed monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest in south China

The forest succession model FORDYN is developed based on TREEDEV model. TREEDEV is a process-based tree growth model, that calculates tree growth based on carbon and nitrogen balance, and is calculated using on the photo-production of leaves, respiration, nitrogen content of all organisms and that in soil, and other losses due to respiration, litter and renewal of stems, branches, leaves and roots. In the FORDYN model succession is divided into three phases called early, middle and late succession, and the transition between these three succession phases is distinguished by a difference in leaf area index. As a verification of the model we used the characteristics and available data of a monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest in Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve (DHS-BR). The model was validated with natural forest data. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was performed in which 30 independent variables were varied and analyzed in connection with their influence on 16 dependent variables describing forest conditions. The simulation results describe the changes in total biomass, carbon and nitrogen change in plant–litter–soil system of an undisturbed monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest during succession. We compared these findings with simulation in which different logging management strategies were used. The results show that having a longer logging cycle, delaying the first logging time and a smaller logging fraction the scenario can contribute to a sustainable forest development, while still having a positive economic yield.