Cost-benefit analysis as a tool for decision making in environmental projects

BACKGROUND, AIM AND SCOPE: The Damage-Function method is an efficient tool recently used in decision-making processes concerning environmental management. It is based on finding the relation between the origin of an environmental charge, and its impact on human health and the environment. The aim of the present investigation was to assess the positive impacts, also called benefits, of changes in environmental quality, and the economic viability of an industrial project on reduction of PCDD/F emissions. It has been developed with monetary criteria of two worldwide ambits: USA and European-Union countries. METHODS: The current study is a continuation of a previous investigation in which Substance Flow Analysis and Control Analysis Techniques were used to identify and to analyze all main flow values of PCDD/Fs inside the system of Tarragona Province (Spain). In the present study, Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) has been employed. The benefits derived from a minimization in the incidence of cancer due to a reduction in the emission of PCDD/Fs have been evaluated considering the value of a statistically saved life (VSL). Statistical analysis about uncertainty has also been incorporated. Here, the Monte Carlo simulation technique has been used. RESULTS: It is shown that CBS results depend firstly on the kind of VSL used. In fact, the differences between the decisions as a result of applying monetary criteria in USA and EU can be explained by differences between VSL values. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION: It is concluded that, for prices estimated in Euros, the emission cleaning project in the industrial plant is not feasible under any circumstance. However, although CBA seems to be a good analytical method, the final decision corresponds to the managers, who must weigh up not only the monetary criteria, but factors such as social questions.     

The environmental regime of the Baltic Sea

This paper explains the transition and selection of environmental regimes, from the general framework of the regime in question, its evolution over time, and primary national approaches to the regime. We evaluate the significance of the environmental problems covered by the international regime for the countries concerned and the importance of problem-solving at the international level, and we assess national interests and approaches towards problem-solving and participation in the regime, especially their dynamics and changes in the period of transition.     

Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management

Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2–4 °C warming and 50–80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase ~30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical–biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.     

Modeling the Baltic Sea eutrophication in a decision support system

SANBALTS (Simple As Necessary Baltic Long-Term Large-Scale) is a model of the coupled nitrogen and phosphorus cycles. This model has been developed as an integral part of the decision support system Marine Research on Eutrophication's Nest with the overall aim to evaluate management options for reducing Baltic Sea eutrophication. Simulated nutrient and oxygen concentrations as well as transport flows and major biogeochemical fluxes can be analyzed in many different ways, including construction of detailed nutrient budgets and tracing the fate of nutrient inputs. The large amounts of data that exist for this sea makes it possible to validate model results with observations. Major biogeochemical properties of the Baltic Sea are discussed through an analyses of model sensitivity to external forcing and internal parameterizations. Model results emphasize two features that are especially important for ecosystem management: i) impacts of local measures would always be modified by the long-range transports from other regions and ii) the response to significant changes in loads would only be seen after several decades.     

Microbial metagenomics in the Baltic Sea: Recent advancements and prospects for environmental monitoring

Metagenomics refers to the analysis of DNA from a whole community. Metagenomic sequencing of environmental DNA has greatly improved our knowledge of the identity and function of microorganisms in aquatic, terrestrial, and human biomes. Although open oceans have been the primary focus of studies on aquatic microbes, coastal and brackish ecosystems are now being surveyed. Here, we review so far published studies on microbes in the Baltic Sea, one of the world’s largest brackish water bodies, using high throughput sequencing of environmental DNA and RNA. Collectively the data illustrate that Baltic Sea microbes are unique and highly diverse, and well adapted to this brackish-water ecosystem, findings that represent a novel base-line knowledge necessary for monitoring purposes and a sustainable management. More specifically, the data relate to environmental drivers for microbial community composition and function, assessments of the microbial biodiversity, adaptations and role of microbes in the nitrogen cycle, and microbial genome assembly from metagenomic sequences. With these discoveries as background, prospects of using metagenomics for Baltic Sea environmental monitoring are discussed.     

Actors and arenas in hybrid networks: implications for environmental policymaking in the Baltic Sea region

Policymaking within and among states is under pressure for change. One feature of this change is empirically observed as an activation of different network structures in the Baltic Sea Region, especially since the collapse of the Iron Curtain, the initiation of the Rio process, and the enlargement of the European Union. The contemporary theoretical debates about governance highlight the changing conditions for policymaking and implementation on all societal levels. This process of change, especially evident concerning environmental policies, includes new types of networks crossing state borders both at the supranational and the subnational levels. This article illuminates this process of change with empirical data from the project "Governing a Common Sea" (GOVCOM) within the Baltic Sea Research Program (BIREME).     

Managing Baltic Sea fisheries under contrasting production and predation regimes: ecosystem model analyses

Based on an earlier published ecosystem model, we have explored possible effects of different management scenarios for the Baltic Sea. The scenarios include an oligotrophication of the system, a drastic increase in the number of seals, and changes in the fishery management. From these simulations we conclude that fisheries, seals, and eutrophication all have strong and interacting impacts on the ecosystem. These interactions call for integrated management. The modeling highlights the potential for conflicts among management mandates such as flourishing fisheries, rebuilt seal populations, and substantially reduced eutrophication. The results also suggest that fisheries management reference points have to be adjusted in response to changes in the presence of natural predators or ecosystem productivity.     

Internal ecosystem feedbacks enhance nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria blooms and complicate management in the Baltic Sea

Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea has potentially increased the frequency and magnitude of cyanobacteria blooms. Eutrophication leads to increased sedimentation of organic material, increasing the extent of anoxic bottoms and subsequently increasing the internal phosphorus loading. In addition, the hypoxic water volume displays a negative relationship with the total dissolved inorganic nitrogen pool, suggesting greater overall nitrogen removal with increased hypoxia. Enhanced internal loading of phosphorus and the removal of dissolved inorganic nitrogen leads to lower nitrogen to phosphorus ratios, which are one of the main factors promoting nitrogenfixing cyanobacteria blooms. Because cyanobacteria blooms in the open waters of the Baltic Sea seem to be strongly regulated by internal processes, the effects of external nutrient reductions are scale-dependent. During longer time scales, reductions in external phosphorus load may reduce cyanobacteria blooms; however, on shorter time scales the internal phosphorus loading can counteract external phosphorus reductions. The coupled processes inducing internal loading, nitrogen removal, and the prevalence of nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria can qualitatively be described as a potentially self-sustaining "vicious circle." To effectively reduce cyanobacteria blooms and overall signs of eutrophication, reductions in both nitrogen and phosphorus external loads appear essential.     

Shell deformations in the Baltic clam Macoma balthica from southern Baltic Sea (the Gulf of Gdansk): hypotheses on environmental effects

High-resolution digital photography and graphical image analyses systems have been used to define external morphometric characters of shell deformations in four populations of the Baltic clam Macoma balthica from the Gulf of Gdansk (southern Baltic Sea). The proposed shell deformation indices (SDI), which were based on the relationship of selected dimensions in the posterior and the anterior part of the shell, showed at least three morphological features that provide a distinctive diagnosis of "regular" and "deformed" clams: the presence of flexure on the posterior side (SDI1), elongated posterior region (SDI2), and shell growth (SDI3). The degree and prevalence of deformed clams varied locally over space. Increase in percentage contribution of aberrated shells with depth, corresponding to oxygen depletion profile in the Gulf, suggests low oxygen concentrations as the main agent exerting a deforming influence. The observed morphological aberrations developed with age (size) of a bivalve, suggesting a long-term effect of causal factors, and were accompanied by lightening shell weight, possibly due to decalcification of previously deposited calcareous material during anaerobic metabolism. It is hypothesized that hypoxic/anoxic conditions and a subsequent presence of hydrogen sulfide on a deep organic-rich sea bottom induce shell form alterations that enable the pumping of oxygenated water from above the anoxic layer. Such a morphological modification highlights the functional significance of shell deformations in protective response to the ambient low-oxygen concentrations. Sediment organotin concentrations fall within moderate to high contamination range and, therefore, may also have an adverse impact on the shell form. DNA analyses of the fragment of mitochondrial gene cytochrome oxidase I (COI, 393 base pairs) showed homogenous genetic structure of regular and deformed clams, indicating that shell deformations in M. balthica are primarily driven by acclimatization to the ambient environmental conditions.     

The Mar Piccolo of Taranto: an interesting marine ecosystem for the environmental problems studies

The National Project RITMARE (la Ricerca ITaliana per il MARE—Italian Research for the sea) started from 1 January 2012. It is one of the national research programs funded by the Italian Ministry of University and Research. RITMARE is coordinated by the National Research Council (CNR) and involves an integrated effort of most of the scientific community working on marine and maritime issues. Within the project, different marine study areas of strategic importance for the Mediterranean have been identified: Among these, the coastal area of Taranto (Ionian Sea, Southern Italy) was chosen for its different industry settlements and the relative impact on the marine environment. In particular, the research has been concentrated on the Mar Piccolo of Taranto, a complex marine ecosystem model important in terms of ecological, social, and economic activities for the presence also of extensive mussel farms. The site has been selected also because the Mar Piccolo area is a characteristic “on field” laboratory suitable to investigate release and diffusion mechanisms of contaminants, evaluate chemical–ecological risks towards the marine ecosystem and human health, and suggest and test potential remediation strategies for contaminated sediments. In this context, within the project RITMARE, a task force of researchers has contributed to elaboration a functioning conceptual model with a multidisciplinary approach useful to identify anthropogenic forcings, its impacts, and solutions of environmental remediation. This paper describes in brief some of the environmental issues related to the Mar Piccolo basin.     

Baltic Sea management: Successes and failures

Severe environmental problems documented in the Baltic Sea in the 1960s led to the 1974 creation of the Helsinki Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the Baltic Sea Area. We introduce this special issue by briefly summarizing successes and failures of Baltic environmental management in the following 40 years. The loads of many polluting substances have been greatly reduced, but legacy pollution slows recovery. Top predator populations have recovered, and human exposure to potential toxins has been reduced. The cod stock has partially recovered. Nutrient loads are decreasing, but deep-water anoxia and cyanobacterial blooms remain extensive, and climate change threatens the advances made. Ecosystem-based management is the agreed principle, but in practice the various environmental problems are still handled separately, since we still lack both basic ecological knowledge and appropriate governance structures for managing them together, in a true ecosystem approach.     

Cold War and the environment: the role of Finland in international environmental politics in the Baltic Sea region

The Convention on the Protection of the Marine Environment of the Baltic Sea Area signed in 1974 in Helsinki is probably the most important environmental agreement consummated in the Baltic Sea region. This article is the first study that explores the history of this agreement, also known as the Helsinki Convention, by using primary archival sources. The principal sources are the archives of the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland. We examine the role of Finland in the process that led to the signing of the Helsinki Convention from the perspective of international politics. The study focuses primarily on Finnish, Swedish, and Soviet state-level parties from the end of the 1960s to 1974. We show that Cold War politics affected in several ways negotiations and contents of the Helsinki Convention. We also argue that the Soviet Union used the emerging international environmental issues as a new tool of power politics.     

A multi media load model for the Baltic Sea

The background of this work is the international decision process with regard to the selection of chemicals to be assessed with priority. In order to stress the precautionary principle, mass flows were analysed rather than concentrations, threshold values, etc., as preferred by the chemical legislation (which still excludes the marine area). Lindane, hexachlorobenzene (HCB), trichloroacetic acid and its sodium salt, medium-chained chlorinated paraffins and tributyltin (TBT) were selected due to their great relevance for the marine area. Trichloroacetic acid is an interesting model compound on account of its accidental formation by degradation of volatile chlorinated hydrocarbons and during chlorination processes. In addition, a hypothetical compound was modelled, representing a highly water-soluble substance with low vapour pressure. The balancing area is the Baltic Sea and its catchment area. In order to model the substance flows, the 'Input/Output-load model' has been developed. The model quantifies the shift and the distribution of a yearly load of the substance investigated from the terrestrial-limnic into the marine compartment (Baltic Sea). Water-soluble substances, which are usually considered to be of no concern, may enter the sea in great amounts and, if not degradable, remain there. It turned out to be necessary to take into account remobilisation, unintended formation and point as well as line-sources.     

Reduction of Baltic Sea Nutrient Inputs and Allocation of Abatement Costs Within the Baltic Sea Catchment

The Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) requires tools to simulate effects and costs of various nutrient abatement strategies. Hierarchically connected databases and models of the entire catchment have been created to allow decision makers to view scenarios via the decision support system NEST. Increased intensity in agriculture in transient countries would result in increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea, particularly from Poland, the Baltic States, and Russia. Nutrient retentions are high, which means that the nutrient reduction goals of 135 000 tons N and 15 000 tons P, as formulated in the BSAP from 2007, correspond to a reduction in nutrient loadings to watersheds by 675 000 tons N and 158 000 tons P. A cost-minimization model was used to allocate nutrient reductions to measures and countries where the costs for reducing loads are low. The minimum annual cost to meet BSAP basin targets is estimated to 4.7 billion €.     

Tradeoffs between environmental goals and urban development: the case of nitrogen load from the Stockholm County to the Baltic Sea

Urban dwellers depend on the generation of ecosystem services for their welfare. The city of Stockholm is growing, and a 25% increase in population is projected by 2030. The effects of urban development were estimated through the quantification of nitrogen (N) leakage to the Baltic Sea under two urban development scenarios. We found that total net N load will increase by 6% or 8%, depending on which growth scenario is applied, and population increase by itself will contribute at least 15% of the point source N leakage. Technical improvements in sewage treatment could, according to our results, decrease total N load to the Baltic Sea by 4%. Based on our results, we conclude that proactive measures such as spatial urban planning can provide a constructive tool for sustainable urban development on regional as well as national and international scales, depending on geographical context as well as the ecosystem services' scale of operation.     

Validation of an ecosystem modelling approach as a tool for ecological effect assessments

In ecotoxicology, derivation of a "safe" environmental concentration is usually achieved by the use of extrapolation factors or by statistical extrapolation from a set of single species toxicity data. These approaches ignore ecological interactions between species in the field. An ecology-based alternative to this pragmatic approach can be ecosystem modelling, which can account for ecological interactions. However, it is largely unexplored how well the predictions of these models quantitatively agree with large-scale experimental studies. Therefore, we evaluated the capacity of a flexible ecosystem model to predict population and ecosystem-level no observed effect concentrations (NOECs) of 7 organic toxicants. These NOECs were compared with population and ecosystem-NOECs observed in 11 micro- and mesocosm studies. For each of the latter studies, the model was customized to account for the specific ecological interactions within these systems and combined with appropriate single-species toxicity data from literature. Population-NOEC predictions were accurate, or at least protective, for 60, and 85% of all considered model populations, respectively. For all 11 studies, a protective ecosystem-NOEC could be derived, being accurate in 7 cases, and conservative in 4 cases. In general, it can be stated that this type of models can serve as an ecology-based alternative to current extrapolation techniques in EEAs and water quality standard setting.     

Bacterial diversity and function in the Baltic Sea with an emphasis on cyanobacteria

In this article we summarize the current knowledge of Baltic Sea cyanobacteria, focusing on diversity, toxicity, and nitrogen fixation in the filamentous heterocystous taxa. We also review the recent results of our microbial diversity studies in planktonic and benthic habitats in the Baltic Sea. Based on molecular analyses, we have improved the understanding of cyanobacterial population structure by assessing genetic diversity within species that are morphologically inseparable. Moreover, we have studied microbial functions such as toxin production and nitrogen fixation in situ under different environmental conditions. Phosphorus limitation of bloom-forming, nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria was clearly verified, emphasizing the importance of continuous efforts to reduce this element in the Baltic Sea. We have designed a rapid and reliable detection method for the toxic cyanobacterium Nodularia spumigena, which can be used to study bloom formation of this important toxin producer.     

Baltic Sea hazardous substances management: results and challenges

The introduction into the Baltic Sea of hazardous substances that are persistent, bioaccumulate, and are toxic is an important environmental and human health problem. Multilateral efforts to address this problem have primarily been taken under the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM). This article examines past HELCOM efforts on hazardous substances, and discusses future challenges regarding their management. The article finds that past actions on hazardous substances have had a positive effect on improving Baltic environmental quality and reducing human health risks, although there are remaining issues and difficulties that need to be addressed. In particular, four related future challenges for HELCOM management of hazardous substances are identified and discussed: i) the need to engender further implementation and building public and private sector capacities; ii) the need to improve data availability, quality and comparability across the region and international fora; iii) the need to strengthen existing regulations and incorporate new issues; and iv) the need to effectively coordinate HELCOM activities with efforts on hazardous substances in other international fora.     

Application of a novel modeling tool with multistressor functionality to support management of organic contaminants in the Baltic Sea

Organic contaminants constitute one of many stressors that deteriorate the ecological status of the Baltic Sea. When managing environmental problems in this marine environment, it may be necessary to consider the interactions between various stressors to ensure that averting one problem does not exacerbate another. A novel modeling tool, BALTSEM-POP, is presented here that simulates interactions between climate forcing, hydrodynamic conditions, and water exchange, biogeochemical cycling, and organic contaminant transport and fate in the Baltic Sea. We discuss opportunities to use the model to support different aspects of chemicals management. We exemplify these opportunities with a case study where two emission-reduction strategies for a chemical used in personal care products (decamethylcyclopentasiloxane) are evaluated, and where the confounding influence of future climate change and eutrophication on the impact of the emission-reduction strategies are assessed.