中国主要江河的悬河化及其成因

本文根据中国主要江河出现的悬河现象;提出了悬河化、黄河化的概念,并对悬河化的成因进行了综合分析。     

自然灾害保险的委托─代理模型

灾害保险是筹措防灾救灾资金的重要手段．本文运用委托-代理理论建立了自然灾害的保险模型,对自然灾害的最优保险合同和保险费率进行了研究,为开展自然灾害的保险业务提供了理论依据．     

自然灾害的模糊识别模型及其应用

自然灾害是各种模糊因素综合作用的结果,模糊集理论与方法是评价自然灾害的重要手段。本文提出应用模糊识别模型进行自然灾害评价,以洪水灾害为例,将模糊识别结果同灰色关联度模型的评价结果进行了分析比较,结果表明,模糊识别结果比灰色关联度模型结果更客观、更符合实际。     

自然灾害综合灾情分级模型及应用

根据对自然灾害灾情的调研，提出了自然灾害综合灾情分级的指标体系和单指标分级标准，然后应用灰色聚类方法建立了自然灾害综合灾情分级模型，并探讨了该模型在评估1993年中国沿海地区台风、暴雨灾害灾情中的应用。     

国外及香港的减灾教育

减灾教育在灾害频发地和发达国家,并不是一个新鲜的话题。日本经常被地震"光顾",因此其防灾措施之严格、灾难教育之全面,早已闻名于世。美国在经历了"9·11"事件之后,把对灾难教育的重视程度提升到前所未有的高度。而印度洋大海啸对东南亚国家的警示意义也同样值得一提。事实上,把灾难教育提上议事日程的国家绝不止这几个国家。联合国早在1989年就决定,将每年10月第二个星期三定为"减少自然灾害国际日",全球数十个国家纷纷开展了有针对性的     

强震数据线性模型曲线的反应谱计算及其误差问题

文献研究给出了用线性模型曲线理论来计算地震加速度数据的反应谱理论.文献又给出了它的简便算法,但这算法忽视了强震丢头记录中初始点数据一般为非零值的影响.本文为此研究给出了更为普通和实用的包括初始数据点为任意值时的间便算法. 给出算例.将这线性模型理论的反应谱计算结果与作者新近研究的时限光滑化模型曲线精确理论计算结果作了对照,反映出用线性模型理论计算存在误差的状况.     

基于状态空间模型的中国粮食产量波动的影响因素研究

粮食丰歉直接影响居民消费与生活质量,而粮食生产受到播种面积、化肥、自然灾害等多种因素的影响。利用逐步回归方法研究发现,在影响粮食生产的10个因素中,播种面积、化肥施用量、自然灾害成灾面积对其生产的影响最大。通过协整检验、误差修正模型分析发现这三种因素与粮食生产之间存在长期与短期关系。状态空间模型表明在不同时期播种面积、化肥施用量、自然灾害成灾面积对其生产的影响存在差异。     

台风灾害风险区划模型

台风灾害发生频率高,影响严重,是人类面临的全球性重大问题之一。对台风灾害进行科学、合理的风险评估显得尤为重要。以宁波市为研究对象,在隶属函数和自然灾害风险理论的基础上,综合考虑形成台风灾害风险危险性、暴露性和脆弱性,结合GIS技术建立了台风灾害风险区划模型,绘制了宁波市台风灾害风险区划图;并利用灾级指数对模型结果进行了验证。结果表明:宁波市各区、县的台风灾害风险指数中,宁海、鄞州、余姚、奉化、象山和慈溪台风灾害的总风险指数较大,老城区(海曙区、江东区、江北区)、镇海和北仑较小;宁波市东南沿海、城镇和部分山区台风灾害风险等级较高;灾级指数与台风风险指数的相关性较好,决定系数达到0.7181,且通过了0.01的置信区间。     

灾害对国民经济影响的定量分析模型及其应用

自然灾害对国民经济和人民生活能造成巨大的损失 ,因此 ,研究灾害对国民经济的影响具有重要的意义。灾害系统是一个十分复杂的系统 ,直接建立灾害对国民经济影响的定量分析模型比较困难。本文基于投入产出方法 ,讨论了直接和间接经济损失在投入 -产出表中的表达方式 ,建立了灾害损失评估的定量分析模型 ,并以农业为例 ,分析了自然灾害造成的农业总产值损失对整个经济系统的影响。     

灾后物资供应系统风险预警可拓模型的初步设计

在可拓学理论的基础上,按照风险预警目的和方法的要求,构建了灾后物资供应系统流动性风险预警模型.该模型解决了物资需求与客观实际采购量的矛盾,客观地反映了风险变化的动态化过程,初步提高了流动性风险预警的有效性.     

基于保户和保险公司共享的最佳巨灾保险

采用数学模型方法研究巨灾保险,提出了保险合同怎样创新的问题.该问题的提出有利于解决巨灾保险供应不足的弊端.对保户而言,这一创新将拥有更大的弹性,进而改善其福利.通过分解巨灾风险发生的频率和损害程度,说明了保险合同怎样设计才对保户最有利.最后,在同时考虑风险发生的频率和严重性的情况下,得出了一般化模型.     

Application of catastrophe loss modelling to promote property insurance in developing countries

Many mega cities in developing countries are exposed to the sources of natural catastrophes, particularly seismic activity. A high level of seismic hazard in some of these places, coupled with a relatively high degree of vulnerability within the built environment, can result in dire human and economic consequences. This paper contains examples of such potentially disruptive factors in relation to Tehran, Iran. It presents preliminary seismic loss estimates for residential buildings in a pilot area of northern Tehran. The paper briefly investigates the effectiveness of risk management measures and loss compensation mechanisms before assessing the feasibility of an insurance‐based risk transfer instrument for managing potential seismic losses among residential buildings in Tehran. It goes on to suggest how probabilistic catastrophe loss modelling can help local insurers to manage their portfolios and facilitate risk sharing among insurance companies and households. Finally, the paper addresses the question of how catastrophe loss modelling can help to strengthen the penetration of property insurance in developing countries.     

Disaster risk insurance and catastrophe models in risk‐prone small Caribbean islands

Post‐catastrophe recovery and financial liquidity have long challenged small Caribbean islands. These states are vulnerable to multifarious natural hazards that often cause considerable socioeconomic dislocation. Such events inflict heavy losses on businesses and households, and significantly disrupt all aspects of government operations. After Hurricane Ivan devastated the economies of some islands in September 2004—with estimated losses of as much as 200 per cent of gross domestic product in some cases—regional governments, aided by the World Bank and international donors, approved the creation of a regional catastrophe insurance scheme. This parametric‐based mechanism is underpinned by derivatives‐based catastrophe modelling whose outputs determine policy triggers and pay outs. Hazard models, particularly catastrophe models, are not widely accepted as yet. Despite recent advancements, major concerns have rendered them peripheral tools for many establishments. This paper reviews the region's vulnerabilities and examines constraints on the application of these models and suggests a means of improving their efficacy and acceptability.     

Successes and failures of compulsory risk mitigation: re‐evaluating the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool

The Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP) is one of the best practices of public–private partnerships in an emerging market designed to reduce economic losses from disasters. This paper reviews the application of this compulsory mechanism along with data relating to the performance of the scheme following recent earthquakes in Turkey. We also consider the current perceptions of Turkish society towards the TCIP and how they can be enhanced. Our conclusions aim to assist stakeholders in government, homeowners, insurance companies, media, banks and civil society to appreciate the value of the system and key actions necessary to improve it.     

联邦德国自然灾害保险述评

灾害保险作为减轻灾害损失的重要手段,受到了国际社会的广泛关注。本文评述了德国的自然灾害保险发展体系及保险人、保险业及国家在灾害保险中的职能关系,可为我国开展灾害保险提供借鉴。     

以保险为重要内容的我国巨灾风险管理体系探讨

我国是世界上自然灾害最严重的国家之一。如何对巨灾风险进行有效的管理是世界范围内的难题和重大的问题,也是各国政府面临的严峻挑战。在讨论了国内外巨灾风险管理体系的基础上,探讨了建立以保险为重要内容的我国巨灾风险管理体系的重要性和举措。     

从印度洋地震海啸看中国的巨灾风险

2004年12月26日印度洋海啸给沿岸国家造成了严重灾难,其主要原因是缺乏必要的防范。中国历史上巨灾频发,今后仍存在比较严重的巨灾威胁。预测我国有11个巨灾高风险区,巨灾种类主要为特大洪水、大地震、强台风和特大风暴潮以及大区域持续性严重干旱。建立巨灾防御体系是今后我国减灾工作的重心。     

公共支出减损巨灾影响的理论与政策研究——兼谈促进巨灾保险事业发展的财政政策

近几十年来,随着经济的发展和人口的增加,全球自然灾害越来越频繁,也越来越严重,人为导致的突发事件造成的损害也越来越大。对此,从理论上探讨了巨灾出现的经济影响,并从实际出发分析了巨灾造成的社会损失。在此基础上,从公共财政的角度提出了减灾的财税政策,及促进巨灾保险事业发展的财税措施。     

Policy options for managing flood insurance

In much of the developed world, private sector insurance plays an important but often underappreciated role in the management of natural disasters. Insurance works by spreading individual and independent risks across all policyholders. This notion succeeds for uncorrelated risks such as theft and motor accidents, but is problematic where risks are highly correlated in space and time, as in the case of natural hazards. Insurers transfer much of this risk to international reinsurers who are guided by the principle that natural catastrophes in different parts of the world are uncorrelated. Global diversification allows reinsurers to confer to direct insurers the same assurance that insurers offer their policyholders. This paper outlines these principles and poses questions as to how a government might respond when insurers assess some risks as uninsurable. It considers a range of policy options including some that seek to avoid situations where interference by governments in the marketplace has proved unhelpful. A key paradigm is that insurance premiums should reflect actual risk in order to encourage homeowners, planners and government decision makers to reduce risks. While our focus is riverine flood risk, the principles can be generalized to a wide range of natural hazards.     

Efficacy of insurance for organisational disaster recovery: case study of the 2010 and 2011 Canterbury earthquakes

Insurance is widely acknowledged to be an important component of an organisation's disaster preparedness and resilience. Yet, little analysis exists of how well current commercial insurance policies and practices support organisational recovery in the wake of a major disaster. This exploratory qualitative research, supported by some quantitative survey data, evaluated the efficacy of commercial insurance following the sequence of earthquakes in Canterbury, New Zealand, in 2010 and 2011. The study found that, generally, the commercial insurance sector performed adequately, given the complexity of the events. However, there are a number of ways in which insurers could improve their operations to increase the efficacy of commercial insurance cover and to assist organisational recovery following a disaster. The most notable of these are: (i) better wording of policies; (ii) the availability of sector‐specific policies; (iii) the enhancement of claims assessment systems; and (iv) risk‐based policy pricing to incentivise risk reduction measures.