Vehicle emissions of radical precursors and related species observed in the 2009 SHARP campaign

The 2009 Study of Houston Atmospheric Radical Precursors (SHARP) field campaign had several components that yielded information on the primary vehicular emissions of formaldehyde (HCHO) and nitrous acid (HONO), in addition to many other species. Analysis of HONO measurements at the Moody Tower site in Houston, TX, yielded emission ratios of HONO to the vehicle exhaust tracer species NO_x and CO of 14 pptv/ppbv and 2.3 pptv/ppbv, somewhat smaller than recently published results from the Galleria site, although evidence is presented that the Moody Tower values should be upper limits to the true ratios of directly emitted HONO, and are consistent with ratios used in current standard emissions models. Several other Moody Tower emission ratios are presented, in particular a value for HCHO/CO of 2.4 pptv/ppbv. Considering only estimates of random errors, this would be significantly lower than a previous value, though the small sample size and possible systematic differences should be taken into account. Emission factors for CO, NO_x, and HCHO, as well as various volatile organic compounds (VOCs), were derived from mobile laboratory measurements both in the Washburn Tunnel and in on-road exhaust plume observations. These two sets of results and others reported in the literature all agree well, and are substantially larger than the CO, NO_x, and HCHO emission factors derived from the emission ratios reported from the Galleria site.

Implications: Emission factors for the species measured in the various components of the 2009 SHARP campaign in Houston, TX, including HCHO, HONO, CO, CO₂, nitrogen oxides, and VOCs, are needed to support regional air quality monitoring. Components of the SHARP campaign measured these species in several different ways, each with their own potential for systematic errors and differences in vehicle fleets sampled. Comparisons between data sets suggest that differences in sampling place and time may result in quite different emission factors, while also showing that different vehicle mixes can yield surprisingly similar emission factors.     

Real-world fuel use and gaseous emission rates for flex fuel vehicles operated on E85 versus gasoline

Flex fuel vehicles (FFVs) typically operate on gasoline or E85, an 85%/15% volume blend of ethanol and gasoline. Differences in FFV fuel use and tailpipe emission rates are quantified for E85 versus gasoline based on real-world measurements of five FFVs with a portable emissions measurement system (PEMS), supplemented chassis dynamometer data, and estimates from the Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) model. Because of inter-vehicle variability, an individual FFV may have higher nitrogen oxide (NO_x) or carbon monoxide (CO) emission rates on E85 versus gasoline, even though average rates are lower. Based on PEMS data, the comparison of tailpipe emission rates for E85 versus gasoline is sensitive to vehicle-specific power (VSP). For example, although CO emission rates are lower for all VSP modes, they are proportionally lowest at higher VSP. Driving cycles with high power demand are more advantageous with respect to CO emissions, but less advantageous for NO_x. Chassis dynamometer data are available for 121 FFVs at 50,000 useful life miles. Based on the dynamometer data, the average difference in tailpipe emissions for E85 versus gasoline is ?23% for NO_x, ?30% for CO, and no significant difference for hydrocarbons (HC). To account for both the fuel cycle and tailpipe emissions from the vehicle, a life cycle inventory was conducted. Although tailpipe NO_x emissions are lower for E85 versus gasoline for FFVs and thus benefit areas where the vehicles operate, the life cycle NO_x emissions are higher because the NO_x emissions generated during fuel production are higher. The fuel production emissions take place typically in rural areas. Although there are not significant differences in the total HC emissions, there are differences in HC speciation. The net effect of lower tailpipe NO_x emissions and differences in HC speciation on ozone formation should be further evaluated.

Implications: Reported comparisons of flex fuel vehicle (FFV) tailpipe emission rates for E85 versus gasoline have been inconsistent. To date, this is the most comprehensive evaluation of available and new data. The large range of inter-vehicle variability illustrates why prior studies based on small sample sizes led to apparently contradictory findings. E85 leads to significant reductions in tailpipe nitrogen oxide (NO_x) and carbon monoxide (CO) emission rates compared with gasoline, indicating a potential benefit for ozone air quality management in NO_x-limited areas. The comparison of FFV tailpipe emissions between E85 and gasoline is sensitive to power demand and driving cycles.     

The impact of NOx,CO and VOC emissions on the air quality of Zurich airport

To study the impact of emissions at an airport on local air quality, a measurement campaign at the Zurich airport was performed from 30 June 2004 to 15 July 2004. Measurements of NO, NO₂, CO and CO₂ were conducted with open path devices to determine real in-use emission indices of aircraft during idling. Additionally, air samples were taken to analyse the mixing ratios of volatile organic compounds (VOC). Temporal variations of VOC mixing ratios on the airport were investigated, while other air samples were taken in the plume of an aircraft during engine ignition. CO concentrations in the vicinity of the terminals were found to be highly dependent on aircraft movement, whereas NO concentrations were dominated by emissions from ground support vehicles. The measured emission indices for aircraft showed a strong dependence upon engine type. Our work also revealed differences from emission indices published in the emission data base of the International Civil Aviation Organisation. Among the VOC, reactive C₂–C₃ alkenes were found in significant amounts in the exhaust of an engine compared to ambient levels. Also, isoprene, a VOC commonly associated with biogenic emissions, was found in the exhaust, however it was not detected in refuelling emissions. The benzene to toluene ratio was used to discriminate exhaust from refuelling emission. In refuelling emissions, a ratio well below 1 was found, while for exhaust this ratio was usually about 1.7.     

Radical precursors and related species from traffic as observed and modeled at an urban highway junction

Nitrous acid (HONO) and formaldehyde (HCHO) are important precursors for radicals and are believed to favor ozone formation significantly. Traffic emission data for both compounds are scarce and mostly outdated. A better knowledge of today's HCHO and HONO emissions related to traffic is needed to refine air quality models. Here the authors report results from continuous ambient air measurements taken at a highway junction in Houston, Texas, from July 15 to October 15, 2009. The observational data were compared with emission estimates from currently available mobile emission models (MOBILE6; MOVES [MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator]). Observations indicated a molar carbon monoxide (CO) versus nitrogen oxides (NO_x) ratio of 6.01 ± 0.15 (r ² = 0.91), which is in agreement with other field studies. Both MOBILE6 and MOVES overestimate this emission ratio by 92% and 24%, respectively. For HCHO/CO, an overall slope of 3.14 ± 0.14 g HCHO/kg CO was observed. Whereas MOBILE6 largely underestimates this ratio by 77%, MOVES calculates somewhat higher HCHO/CO ratios (1.87) than MOBILE6, but is still significantly lower than the observed ratio. MOVES shows high HCHO/CO ratios during the early morning hours due to heavy-duty diesel off-network emissions. The differences of the modeled CO/NO_x and HCHO/CO ratios are largely due to higher NO_x and HCHO emissions in MOVES (30% and 57%, respectively, increased from MOBILE6 for 2009), as CO emissions were about the same in both models. The observed HONO/NO_x emission ratio is around 0.017 ± 0.0009 kg HONO/kg NO_x which is twice as high as in MOVES. The observed NO₂/NO_x emission ratio is around 0.16 ± 0.01 kg NO₂/kg NO_x, which is a bit more than 50% higher than in MOVES. MOVES overestimates the CO/CO₂ emission ratio by a factor of 3 compared with the observations, which is 0.0033 ± 0.0002 kg CO/kg CO₂. This as well as CO/NO_x overestimation is coming from light-duty gasoline vehicles.

Implications: Nitrous acid (HONO) and formaldehyde (HCHO) are important precursors for radicals that ultimately contribute to ozone formation. There still exist uncertainties in emission sources of HONO and HCHO and thus regional air quality modeling still tend to underestimate concentrations of free radicals in the atmosphere. This paper demonstrates that the latest U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) traffic emission model MOVES still shows significant deviations from observed emission ratios, in particular underestimation of HCHO/CO and HONO/NO_x ratios. Improving the performance of MOVES may improve regional air quality modeling.     

Revised estimates of construction activity and emissions: Effects on ozone and elemental carbon concentrations in southern California

Emissions from diesel-powered construction equipment are an important source of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and particulate matter (PM). A new emission inventory for construction equipment emissions is developed based on surveys of diesel fuel use; the revised inventory is compared to current emission inventories. California's OFFROAD model estimates are 4.5 and 3.1 times greater, for NO_x and PM respectively, than the fuel-based estimates developed here. The most relevant uncertainties are the overall amount of construction activity/diesel fuel use, exhaust emission factors for PM and NO_x, and the spatial allocation of emissions to county level and finer spatial scales. Construction permit data were used in this study to estimate spatial distributions of emissions; the resulting distribution is well correlated with population growth. An air quality model was used to assess the impacts of revised emission estimates. Increases of up to 15 ppb in predicted peak ozone concentrations were found in southern California. Elemental carbon and fine particle mass concentrations were in better agreement with observations using revised emission estimates, whereas negative bias in predictions of ambient NO_x concentrations increased.     

Trend of vehicle emission levels until 2020 – Prognosis based on current vehicle measurements and future emission legislation

The paper describes the incorporation of actual emission measurements and future emission standards into the emission model ‘NEMO’ (Network Emission Model). This model is then applied to make predictions on vehicle emission levels on basis of the Austrian fleet composition until 2020. The output is compared to the results based on the most common emission tool for the calculation of vehicle emissions in Central Europe – the recent version (2.1) of the ‘Handbook Emission Factors for Road Transport’. The discussion is focused on NO_x and particulate matter (PM), since these pollutants are considered to be the most critical for the local air quality level.The NO_x emission levels of recent modern diesel vehicle generations observed in several real world driving conditions were observed to be clearly higher than demanded in the type approval procedure. Due to the growing number of modern diesel engine concepts equipped with coated catalytic exhaust after treatment, the fraction of NO₂ of the total tailpipe NO_x emissions is predicted to continue to increase in the next few years. Bearing in mind the upcoming tightening of the NO₂ air quality limits and the steady increase of traffic volumes, excesses of the NO₂ air quality limits at roadside locations have to be expected to an increasing extent for the beginning of the next decade. The issue of particle emissions originated from the diesel engine combustion process can be regarded as being technically solved due to the extensive introduction of diesel particle filters in the vehicle fleet if these systems will prove a high efficiency over the entire vehicle life in real world operation conditions. However, PM emissions from road transport will continue to be in the focus of public attention due to particle emissions caused by dust re-suspension and abrasion processes.     

Estimating Future NO2 Levels in the Greater Los Angeles Area by Source–Type Contribution

Two indicator pollutants, carbon monoxide (CO) for mobile source influence and sulfur dioxide (SO₂) for stationary source influence, were used to estimate source-type contributions to ambient NO₂ levels in a base year and to predict NO₂ concentrations in a future year. For a specific source-receptor pair, the so-called influence coefficient of each of three source categories (mobile sources, power plants, and other stationary sources) was determined empirically from concurrent measurements of CO and SO₂ concentrations at the receptor site and CO and SO₂ emissions from each source category in the source area. Those coefficients, which are considered time invariant, were used in conjunction with the base year and future year NO _x emission values to estimate source-type contribution to ambient NO₂ levels at seven study sites selected from the Greater Los Angeles area for both the base year period, 1974 through 1976, and the future goal year of 1987 in which the air quality standards for NO₂ are to be attained. The estimated NO₂ air quality at the seven sites is found to meet the national annual standard of 5 pphm and over 99.9% of total hours, the California 1-hr NO₂ standard of 25 pphm in 1987. The estimated power plant contributions to ambient NO₂ levels are found to be considerably smaller than those to total NO _x emissions in the area. Providing that reasonably complete air quality and emissions data are available, the present analysis method may prove to be a useful tool in evaluating source contributions to both short-term peak and long-term average NO₂ concentrations for use in control strategy development.     

Modeling traffic air pollution in street canyons in New York City for intra-urban exposure assessment in the US Multi-Ethnic Study of atherosclerosis and air pollution

We evaluated the Danish AirGIS air quality and exposure model system using air quality measurement data from New York City in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air). Measurements were used from three US EPA Air Quality System (AQS) monitoring stations and a comprehensive MESA Air measurement campaign including about 150 different locations and about 650 samples of about 2 week measurements of NO_x, NO₂ and PM_2.5. AirGIS is a deterministic exposure model system based on the dispersion models Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPM) and the Urban Background Model (UBM). The UBM model reproduced the annual levels within 1–26% depending on station and pollutant at the three urban background EPA monitor stations, and generally reproduced well the seasonal and diurnal variation. The full model with OSPM and UBM reproduced the MESA Air measurements with a correlation coefficient of r² = 0.51 for NO_x, r² = 0.28 for NO₂ and r² = 0.73 for PM_2.5.     

NOx emission calculations for bulk carriers by using engine power probabilities as weighting factors

An important marine pollution issue identified by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) is NO_x emissions; however, the stipulated method for determining the NO_x certification value does not reflect the actual high emission factors of slow-speed two-stroke diesel engines over long-term slow steaming. In this study, an accurate method is presented for calculating the NO_x emission factors and total amount of NO_x emissions by using the actual power probabilities of the diesel engines in four types of bulk carriers. The proposed method is suitable for all types and purposes of diesel engines, is not restricted to any operating modes, and is highly accurate. Moreover, it is recommended that the IMO-stipulated certification value calculation method be modified accordingly to genuinely reduce the amount of NO_x emissions. The successful achievement of this level of reduction will help improve the air quality, especially in coastal and port areas, and the health of local residents.

Implications: As per the IMO, the NO_x emission certification value of marine diesel engines having a rated power over 130 kW must be obtained using specified weighting factor (WF)-based calculation. However, this calculation fails to represent the current actual situation. Effective emission reductions of 6.91% (at sea) and 31.9% (in ports) were achieved using a mathematical model of power probability functions. Thus, we strongly recommend amending the certification value of NO_x Technical Code 2008 (NTC 2008) by removing the WF constraints, such that the NO_x emissions of diesel engines is lower than the Tier-limits at any load level to obtain genuine NO_x emission reductions.     

Sensitivity of ozone concentrations to diurnal variations of surface emissions in Mexico City: A WRF/Chem modeling study

Sensitivity of ozone (O₃) concentrations in the Mexico City area to diurnal variations of surface air pollutant emissions is investigated using the WRF/Chem model. Our analysis shows that diurnal variations of nitrogen oxides (NO_x = NO + NO₂) and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions play an important role in controlling the O₃ concentrations in the Mexico City area. The contributions of NO_x and VOC emissions to daytime O₃ concentrations are very sensitive to the morning emissions of NO_x and VOCs. Increase in morning NO_x emissions leads to decrease in daytime O₃ concentrations as well as the afternoon O₃ maximum, while increase in morning VOC emissions tends to increase in O₃ concentrations in late morning and early afternoon, indicating that O₃ production in Mexico City is under VOC-limited regime. It is also found that the nighttime O₃ is independent of VOCs, but is sensitive to NO_x. The emissions of VOCs during other periods (early morning, evening, and night) have only small impacts on O₃ concentrations, while the emissions of NO_x have important impacts on O₃ concentrations in the evening and the early morning.This study suggests that shifting emission pattern, while keeping the total emissions unchanged, has important impacts on air quality. For example, delaying the morning emission peak from 8 am to 10 am significantly reduced the morning peaks of NO_x and VOCs, as well as the afternoon O₃ maxima. It suggests that without reduction of total emission, the daytime O₃ concentrations can be significantly reduced by changing the diurnal variations of the emissions of O₃ precursors.     

NOX Levels in the Caracas Valley

An analysis of air quality data from 1970-1975 in the Los Angeles (LA) Basin has been made with emphasis on factors relevant to high hourly NO₂ concentrations, (NO₂). Detailed analysis of CO and SO₂ air quality and the (NO _x )/(CO) and (CO)/(SO₂) ratios reveals that high (NO₂) result mainly from vehicular sources; contributions from stationary sources to these high (NO₂) of greater than 10% occur rarely. Meteorological conditions (very low early-morning inversion base height and low wind speed) favoring the formation of high (NO₂) restrict the impact of elevated point NO _x sources on the ground level (NO₂) during the early to mid-morning hours. The overnight leftover NO _x during high NO₂ days is shown to originate largely from local sources near the monitoring sites. A regression analysis using NO₂, NO _x and HC data from downtown LA shows that a 50% reduction in (NO _x ) reduces high (NO₂) by 40-45%; a 50% reduction in (HC) reduces high (NO₂) by 5-10%. The present analysis supports assumptions used in an earlier generalized rollback model that related NO _x emissions to high 1-h average (NO₂) observed at downtown LA.     

An Environmental Decision-Making Tool for Evaluating Ground-Level Ozone-Related Health Effects

Abstract

A computer model called the Ozone Risk Assessment Model (ORAM) was developed to evaluate the health effects caused by ground-level ozone (O₃) exposure. ORAM was coupled with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Third-Generation Community Multiscale Air Quality model (Models-3/CMAQ), the state-of-the-art air quality model that predicts O₃ concentration and allows the examination of various scenarios in which emission rates of O₃ precursors (basically, oxides of nitrogen [NO_x] and volatile organic compounds) are varied. The principal analyses in ORAM are exposure model performance evaluation, health-effects calculations (expected number of respiratory hospital admissions), economic valuation, and sensitivity and uncertainty analysis through a Monte Carlo simulation. As a demonstration of the system, ORAM was applied to the eastern Tennessee region, and the entire O₃ season was simulated for a base case (typical emissions) and three different emission scenarios. The results indicated that a synergism occurs when reductions in NO_x emissions from mobile and point sources were applied simultaneously. A 12.9% reduction in asthma hospital admissions is expected when both mobile and point source NO_x emissions are reduced (50 and 70%, respectively) versus a 5.8% reduction caused by mobile source and a 3.5% reduction caused by point sources when these emission sources are reduced individually.     

Workshop on the Intercomparison of Methodologies for Soil NOx Emissions: Summary of Discussion and Research Recommendations

A workshop on the intercomparison of methodologies for soil NO_x emissions was held on March 14-15, 1994 at North Carolina State University (NCSU) in Raleigh, North Carolina, in preparation for a field experiment tentatively scheduled for May-June, 1995 involving measurement of rural site NO_x emissions. The workshop was sponsored jointly by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and NCSU. Representatives from several agencies will participate in the experiment, including the EPA, NASA, NOAA, DOE, NCAR, Atmospheric Science from the University of Maryland, and Atmospheric Sciences and Soil Sciences from NCSU. Approximately 50 workshop attendees, which included national experts on all aspects of flux measurement technologies, met for a day and a half to discuss techniques for measuring soil NO_x (= NO + NO₂) emissions and to suggest how to best incorporate these techniques into a field experiment to compare NO_x measuring methodologies. The need for more knowledge in the area of soil NO_x emissions is related to the uncertainty of the relationship between rural NO_x emissions and the production of tropospheric ozone. In particular, the role of nitrogen-based fertilizers spread over rural agricultural areas in the production or emission of NO_x is not well documented. To determine the best way to document and model these relationships, a full experimental comparison of NO_x emission measurement techniques over a rural agricultural area is needed. Thus, it was recommended that a study of the intercomparison of methodologies for soil NO_x emissions (both intensive field experiments and analysis) should be undertaken. The primary goal of this study will be to relate chamber techniques to micrometeorological flux estimates of NO_x. The study should include (i) an intensive four-to-six-week experiment for the intercomparison of methodologies for soil NO_x emissions, (ii) and soil and air quality characterization of the experimental site.     

Comparison of the MOVES2010a,MOBILE6.2, and EMFAC2007 mobile source emission models with on-road traffic tunnel and remote sensing measurements

The Desert Research Institute conducted an on-road mobile source emission study at a traffic tunnel in Van Nuys, California, in August 2010 to measure fleet-averaged, fuel-based emission factors. The study also included remote sensing device (RSD) measurements by the University of Denver of 13,000 vehicles near the tunnel. The tunnel and RSD fleet-averaged emission factors were compared in blind fashion with the corresponding modeled factors calculated by ENVIRON International Corporation using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) MOVES2010a (Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator) and MOBILE6.2 mobile source emission models, and California Air Resources Board's (CARB's) EMFAC2007 (EMission FACtors) emission model. With some exceptions, the fleet-averaged tunnel, RSD, and modeled carbon monoxide (CO) and oxide of nitrogen (NO_x) emission factors were in reasonable agreement (±25%). The nonmethane hydrocarbon (NMHC) emission factors (specifically the running evaporative emissions) predicted by MOVES were insensitive to ambient temperature as compared with the tunnel measurements and the MOBILE- and EMFAC-predicted emission factors, resulting in underestimation of the measured NMHC/NO_x ratios at higher ambient temperatures. Although predicted NMHC/NO_x ratios are in good agreement with the measured ratios during cooler sampling periods, the measured NMHC/NO_x ratios are 3.1, 1.7, and 1.4 times higher than those predicted by the MOVES, MOBILE, and EMFAC models, respectively, during high-temperature periods. Although the MOVES NO_x emission factors were generally higher than the measured factors, most differences were not significant considering the variations in the modeled factors using alternative vehicle operating cycles to represent the driving conditions in the tunnel. The three models predicted large differences in NO_x and particle emissions and in the relative contributions of diesel and gasoline vehicles to total NO_x and particulate carbon (TC) emissions in the tunnel.

Implications: Although advances have been made to mobile source emission models over the past two decades, the evidence that mobile source emissions of carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons in urban areas were underestimated by as much as a factor of 2–3 in past inventories underscores the need for on-going verification of emission inventories. Results suggest that there is an overall increase in motor vehicle NMHC emissions on hot days that is not fully accounted for by the emission models. Hot temperatures and concomitant higher ratios of NMHC emissions relative to NO_x both contribute to more rapid and efficient formation of ozone. Also, the ability of EPA's MOVES model to simulate varying vehicle operating modes places increased importance on the choice of operating modes to evaluate project-level emissions.     

Projected ozone trends and changes in the ozone-precursor relationship in the South Coast Air Basin in response to varying reductions of precursor emissions

This study examined the effects of varying future reductions in emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) and volatile organic compounds (VOC) on the location and magnitude of peak ozone levels within California’s South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB or Basin). As ozone formation is currently VOC-limited in the Basin, model simulations with 2030 baseline emissions (?61% for NO_x and ?32% for VOC from 2008) predict 10–20% higher peak ozone levels (i.e., NO_x disbenefit) in the western and central SoCAB compared with the 2008 base simulation. With additional NO_x reductions of 50% beyond the 2030 baseline emissions (?81% from 2008), the predicted ozone levels are reduced by about 15% in the eastern SoCAB but remain comparable to 2008 levels in the western and central Basin. The Basin maximum ozone site shifts westward to more populated areas of the Basin and will result potentially in greater population-weighted exposure to ozone with even a relatively small shortfall in the required NO_x reductions unless accompanied by additional VOC reductions beyond 2030 baseline levels. Once committed to a NO_x-focused control strategy, NO_x reductions exceeding 90% from 2008 levels will be necessary to attain the ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). The findings from this study and other recent work that the current VOC emission estimates are underestimated by about 50% suggest that greater future VOC reductions will be necessary to reach the projected 2030 baseline emissions. Increasing the base year VOC emissions by a factor of 1.5 result in higher 2008 baseline ozone predictions, lower relative response factors, and about 20% lower projected design values. If correct, these findings have important implications for the total and optimum mix of VOC and NO_x emission reductions that will be required to attain the ozone NAAQS in the SoCAB.

Implications: Results of this study indicate that ozone levels in the western and central SoCAB would remain the same or increase with even a relatively small shortfall in the projected NO_x reductions under planned NO_x-focused controls. This possibility, therefore, warrants a rigorous analysis of the costs and effects of varying reductions of VOC and NO_x on the formation and combined health impacts of ozone and secondary particles. Given the nonlinearity of ozone formation, such analyses should include the implications of gradually increasing global background ozone concentrations and the Basin’s topography and meteorology on the practical limits of alternative emission control strategies.     

Regression modelling of hourly NOx and NO2 concentrations in urban air in London

Based on hourly measurements of NO_x NO₂ and O₃ and meteorological data, an ordinary least squares (OLS) model and a first-order autocorrelation (AR) model were developed to analyse the regression and prediction of NO_x and NO₂ concentrations in London. Primary emissions and wind speed are the most important factors influencing NO_x concentrations; in addition to these two, reaction of NO with O₃ is also a major factor influencing NO₂ concentrations. The AR model resulted in high correlation coefficients (R > 0.95) for the NO_x and NO₂ regression based on a whole year's data, and is capable of predicting NO₂ (R = 0.83) and NO_x (R = 0.65) concentrations when the explanatory variables were available. The analysis of the structure of regression models by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) indicates that the regression models are stable. The results of the OLS model indicate that there was an exceptional NO₂ source, other than primary emission and reaction of NO with O₃, in the air pollution episode in London in December 1991.     

Nitrogen oxide emission calculation for post-Panamax container ships by using engine operation power probability as weighting factor: A slow-steaming case

In this study, the nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emission factors and total NO_x emissions of two groups of post-Panamax container ships operating on a long-term slow-steaming basis along Euro–Asian routes were calculated using both the probability density function of engine power levels and the NO_x emission function. The main engines of the five sister ships in Group I satisfied the Tier I emission limit stipulated in MARPOL (International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships) Annex VI, and those in Group II satisfied the Tier II limit. The calculated NO_x emission factors of the Group I and Group II ships were 14.73 and 17.85 g/kWhr, respectively. The total NO_x emissions of the Group II ships were determined to be 4.4% greater than those of the Group I ships. When the Tier II certification value was used to calculate the average total NO_x emissions of Group II engines, the result was lower than the actual value by 21.9%. Although fuel consumption and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions were increased by 1.76% because of slow steaming, the NO_x emissions were markedly reduced by 17.2%. The proposed method is more effective and accurate than the NO_x Technical Code 2008. Furthermore, it can be more appropriately applied to determine the NO_x emissions of international shipping inventory.

Implications: The usage of operating power probability density function of diesel engines as the weighting factor and the NO_x emission function obtained from test bed for calculating NO_x emissions is more accurate and practical. The proposed method is suitable for all types and purposes of diesel engines, irrespective of their operating power level. The method can be used to effectively determine the NO_x emissions of international shipping and inventory applications and should be considered in determining the carbon tax to be imposed in the future.     

Air Quality Modeling of Interpollutant Trading for Ozone Precursors in an Urban Area

Abstract

Emission trading is a market‐based approach designed to improve the efficiency and economic viability of emission control programs; emission trading has typically been confined to trades among single pollutants. Interpollutant trading (IPT), as described in this work, allows for trades among emissions of different compounds that affect the same air quality end point, in this work, ambient ozone (O₃) concentrations. Because emissions of different compounds impact air quality end points differently, weighting factors or trading ratios (tons of emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) equivalent to a ton of emissions of volatile organic compounds [VOCs]) must be developed to allow for IPT. In this work, IPT indices based on reductions in O₃ concentrations and based on reductions in population exposures to O₃ were developed and evaluated using a three‐dimensional gridded photochemical model for Austin, TX, a city currently on the cusp of nonattainment with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for O₃ concentrations averaged over 8 hr. Emissions of VOC and NO_x from area and mobile sources in Austin are larger than emissions from point sources. The analysis indicated that mobile and area sources exhibited similar impacts. Trading ratios based on maximum O₃ concentration or population exposure were similar. In contrast, the trading ratios did exhibit significant (more than a factor of two) day‐to‐day variability. Analysis of the air quality modeling indicated that the daily variability in trading ratios could be attributed to daily variations in both emissions and meteorology.     

NO2 and SO2dispersion modeling and relative roles of emission sources over Map Ta Phut industrial area,Thailand

Map Ta Phut industrial area (MA) is the largest industrial complex in Thailand. There has been concern about many air pollutants over this area. Air quality management for the area is known to be difficult, due to lack of understanding of how emissions from different sources or sectors (e.g., industrial, power plant, transportation, and residential) contribute to air quality degradation in the area. In this study, a dispersion study of NO₂ and SO₂ was conducted using the AERMOD model. The area-specific emission inventories of NO_x and SO₂ were prepared, including both stack and nonstack sources, and divided into 11 emission groups. Annual simulations were performed for the year 2006. Modeled concentrations were evaluated with observations. Underestimation of both pollutants was found, and stack emission estimates were scaled to improve the modeled results before quantifying relative roles of individual emission groups to ambient concentration over four selected impacted areas (two are residential and the others are highly industrialized). Two concentration measures (i.e., annual average area-wide concentration or AC, and area-wide robust highest concentration or AR) were used to aggregately represent mean and high-end concentrations for each individual area, respectively. For AC-NO₂, on-road mobile emissions were found to be the largest contributor in the two residential areas (36–38% of total AC-NO₂), while petrochemical-industry emissions play the most important role in the two industrialized areas (34–51%). For AR-NO₂, biomass burning has the most influence in all impacted areas (>90%) except for one residential area where on-road mobile is the largest (75%). For AC-SO₂, the petrochemical industry contributes most in all impacted areas (38–56%). For AR-SO₂, the results vary. Since the petrochemical industry was often identified as the major contributor despite not being the largest emitter, air quality workers should pay special attention to this emission group when managing air quality for the MA.

Implications: Effective air quality management in Map Ta Phut Industrial Area, Thailand requires better understanding of how emissions from various sources contribute to the degradation of ambient air quality. Based on the dispersion study here, petrochemical industry was generally identified as the major contributor to ambient NO₂ and SO₂. By accounting for all stack and non-stack sources, on-road mobile emissions were found to be important in some particular areas.     

The sensitivity of the CHIMERE model to emissions reduction scenarios on air quality in Northern Italy

The sensitivity of the CHIMERE model to emission reduction scenarios on particulate matter PM2.5 and ozone (O₃) in Northern Italy is studied. The emissions of NO_x, PM2.5 SO₂, VOC or NH₃ were reduced by 50% for different source sectors for the Lombardy region, together with 5 additional scenarios to estimate the effect of local measures on improving the air quality for the Po valley area. Firstly, we evaluate the model performance by comparing calculated surface aerosol concentrations for the standard case (no emission reductions) with observations for January and June 2005. Calculated monthly mean PM10 concentrations are in general underestimated. For June, modelled PM10 concentrations slightly overestimate the measurements. Calculated monthly mean SO₄, NO₃^?, NH₄⁺ concentrations are in good agreement with the observations for January and June. Secondly, the model sensitivity of emission reduction scenarios on PM2.5 and O₃ calculated concentrations for the Po valley area is evaluated. The most effective scenarios to abate PM2.5 concentration are based on the SNAP2 (non-industrial combustion plants) and SNAP7 (road traffic) sectors, for which the NO_x and PM2.5 emissions are reduced by 50%. The number of days that the 2015 PM2.5 limit value of 25 μg m^?3 in Milan is exceeded by reducing primary PM2.5 and NO_x emissions for SNAP2 and 7 by 50%, does not change in January when compared to the standard case for the Milan area. It appears that 40% of the PM2.5 concentration in the greater Milan area is caused by the emissions surrounding the Lombardy region and from the model boundary conditions.This study also showed that a more effective pollutant reduction (emissions) per ton of pollutant reduced (concentrations) for the greater Milan area is obtained by reducing the primary PM2.5 emissions for SNAP7 by 50%. The most effective scenario on PM2.5 decrease for which precursor emissions are reduced is achieved by reducing SO₂ emissions by 50% for SNAP7.Our study showed that during summer time, the largest reductions in O₃ concentrations are achieved for SNAP7 emission reductions, when volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are reduced by 50%.