Factors affecting the evacuation decisions of coastal households during Cyclone Aila in Bangladesh

Despite sincere efforts by concerned agencies and recent improvements in hazard warnings, thousands of at-risk people did not evacuate during Aila, a category-I tropical cyclone that struck southwestern coastal Bangladesh in 2009. This study investigated the responses of the people affected by Aila to cyclone warnings and associated evacuation orders, and unveiled behavioural aspects that explain why they did or did not comply with the evacuation orders. Utilising the primary data collected from 420 households living in the severely affected coastal sub-district Koyra, located in Khulna District, this study found that although more than 97% of the households had received cyclone warnings and evacuation orders before Aila's landfall, only around 26% had evacuated. We also examined this study's empirical findings for factors that had dissuaded people from complying with the evacuation orders. Relevant test statistics along with results from principal component analysis suggested that the significant and systematic absenteeism of households from disaster preparedness training appears to be one of the key determinants that affected their evacuation decisions, along with factors related to warning messages, the attributes of cyclone shelters, risk perception, and socioeconomic aspects. A number of recommendations are also presented in this study for people at risk to improve their evacuation rates in future emergencies, not only to save their own lives but also to save their livestock.     

Cyclone disaster vulnerability and response experiences in coastal Bangladesh

For generations, cyclones and tidal surges have frequently devastated lives and property in coastal and island Bangladesh. This study explores vulnerability to cyclone hazards using first‐hand coping recollections from prior to, during and after these events. Qualitative field data suggest that, beyond extreme cyclone forces, localised vulnerability is defined in terms of response processes, infrastructure, socially uneven exposure, settlement development patterns, and livelihoods. Prior to cyclones, religious activities increase and people try to save food and valuable possessions. Those in dispersed settlements who fail to reach cyclone shelters take refuge in thatched‐roof houses and big‐branch trees. However, women and children are affected more despite the modification of traditional hierarchies during cyclone periods. Instinctive survival strategies and intra‐community cooperation improve coping post cyclone. This study recommends that disaster reduction programmes encourage cyclone mitigation while being aware of localised realities, endogenous risk analyses, and coping and adaptation of affected communities (as active survivors rather than helpless victims).     

Health Effects of the 1991 Bangladesh Cyclone: Report of a UNICEF Evaluation Team

To assess the impact on health of the cyclone and tidal wave that struck the southern coast of Bangladesh on the evening of 29 April 1991, a team of health professionals visited cyclone affected areas from 4–27 June, 1991. Team members met with health workers and officials of the Government of Bangladesh and with staff pom nongovernmental organizations, and conducted field surveys in two severely affected areas.
Mortality among the 135 households surveyed (pre-cyclone population 1,123) was 14 per cent. At highest risk of deaths were children of less than 10 years (26 per cent mortality) and women of more than 40 (31 per cent mortality). Almost all deaths occurred as a result of drowning from the tidal wave that accompanied the cyclone. Although 95 per cent of the population surveyed had received warning of the cyclone four or more hours before it struck, the 300 existing cyclone shelters had capacity for only 450,000 of the 5,000,000 people affected by the cyclone. Deaths following the cyclone were few. Diarrhea caused by Vibrio cholerae and Shigella dysenteria type 1, both of which are endemic in Bangladesh, occurred in the post-cyclone period. Reports by the national Diarrhea Surveillance System of large increases in diarrheal incidence following the cyclone were difficult to assess because of inconsistencies in pre-and post-cyclone reporting methods. No increase in other infectious diseases was identified.
Although water availability had been a major concern following the cyclone, the tubewell system was functioning well in the area that was surveyed. Distribution of relief assistance by the Government of Bangladesh and by non-governmental organizations was good, with 95 per cent of families surveyed receiving food aid within five days of the cyclone.
The major health effect of this cyclone was acute deaths due to drowning. Preventing deaths during future cyclones will require increasing accessible shelter.     

Cyclone shelters and their locational suitability: an empirical analysis from coastal Bangladesh

Bangladesh is one of the poorest and the most disaster‐prone countries in Asia; it is important, therefore, to know how its disaster reduction strategies are organised and planned. Cyclone shelters comprise a widely acceptable form of infrastructural support for disaster management in Bangladesh. This paper attempts to analyse empirically their use during cyclones in a sample study area along the southwest coastal belt of the country. It shows how the location of a cyclone shelter can determine the social power structure in coastal Bangladesh. The results reveal that the establishment of cyclone shelters in the studied communities is determined by neither a right‐based nor a demand‐based planning approach; rather, their creation is dependent on the socio‐political affluence of local‐level decision‐makers. The paper goes on to demonstrate that socially vulnerable households (defined, for example, by income or housing conditions) are afforded disproportionately less access to cyclone shelters as compared to less socially vulnerable households.     

Environmental Health and the 1991 Bangladesh Cyclone

A brief post-disaster study was undertaken soon after the cyclone of 1991 in Bangladesh to make a preliminary assessment of existing environmental health conditions. Eighty affected people and 26 relief personnel from the affected areas were interviewed. Faecal coliform counts, salinity conductivity and pH values were determined for 43 water samples from tubewells and ponds. The quality of 32 samples of water purifying tablets was also tested.
Water scarcity was acute, especially water used for washing and personal hygiene. The situation was made worse by the fact that the surface water sources (ponds) which were commonly used for domestic purposes other than drinking were flooded, highly contaminated and regarded as unusable. The user load on existing tubewells doubled, indicating a significantly increased demand for the tubewell water which is commonly used for drinking purposes only. The majority (63 per cent) of the water purifying tablets were found to have lost potency. Sanitation was very poor in households as well as in field clinics and shelters. Most people, including relief personnel, lacked environmental health knowledge. Suggestions regarding immediate preparations for disaster relief include: restoring water systems (tubewells and ponds), training courses for relief personnel, standardizing of water purifying tablets, promoting appropriate water use and its treatment, maintaining sanitation in clinics and shelters and improving the skills and resources of local people to enable them to cope with the situation.     

The displaced poor and resettlement policies in bangladesh

Bangladesh is a land of natural disasters. Every year the country is affected by flood, riverbank erosion, drought, coastal cyclone and tornado. Riverbank erosion alone displaces an estimated one million people annually. Based on research carried out in Bangladesh in 1984–85, this paper critically examines resettlement options of the displaced poor in the light of existing policies for developing more effective short and long-term resettlement and development strategies .     

"We all knew that a cyclone was coming": disaster preparedness and the cyclone of 1999 in Orissa, India

Imagine that a cyclone is coming, but that those living in the affected areas do nothing or too little to protect themselves. This is precisely what happened in the coastal state of Orissa, India. Individuals and communities living in regions where natural hazards are a part of daily life develop strategies to cope with and adapt to the impacts of extreme events. In October 1999, a cyclone killed 10,000 people according to government statistics, however, the unofficial death toll is much higher. This article examines why such a large loss of life occurred and looks at measures taken since then to initiate comprehensive disaster-preparedness programmes and to construct more cyclone shelters. The role of both governmental organisations and NGOs in this is critically analysed. The good news is that, based on an assessment of disaster preparedness during a small cyclone in November 2002, it can be seen that at community-level awareness was high and that many of the lessons learnt in 1999 were put into practice. Less positive, however, is the finding that at the state level collaboration continues to be problematic.     

The impact of local elites on disaster preparedness planning: the location of flood shelters in northern bangladesh

Disaster relief and preparedness organisations are concerned with allocating scarce resources in unstable environments, such as those prone to flooding and river erosion. The need to understand the role of powerful elites in such disaster prone environments is illustrated through an analysis of the actual location decisions and biases involved in siting four flood shelters in four communities in northern Bangladesh. The previously unrecognised implications of the location biases for employment, shelter, access and the utilisation of the flood shelter by the powerless people in the target group demonstrate the need for disaster organisations to include an analysis of the local power structure in project preparation and appraisal.     

中山市城区避震疏散场所规划

当地震来临时,快速及时地将人员疏散到安全地带,能大大减少人员伤亡。因此,在地震频发、城市人口不断集中的今天,各城市应事先建设好避震疏散场所。通过对影响避震疏散场所选择的中山市城区地质构造背景与场地条件、以区为单位需安置人口数量、医疗救护点、易燃易爆危险源、避震疏散通道分布等要素的分析,并在野外勘查的基础上,参照关于建设避震疏散场所的规范和标准,对中山市城区避震疏散场所进行了规划。所规划的避震疏散场所安全可靠、布局合理,能够满足中山市城区的应急疏散需要。     

The 1970 Bhola cyclone,nationalist politics,and the subsistence crisis contract in Bangladesh

The devastating Bhola cyclone in November 1970 is credited with having triggered the political events that led to the division of Pakistan and the creation of Bangladesh in 1971. A callous response to the disaster by the Pakistani regime resulted in a landslide electoral victory for Bengali nationalists, followed by a bitter and bloody civil war. Yet, despite its political momentousness, the Bhola cyclone has been the subject of little political analysis. This paper examines the events, arguing that its extraordinary political significance put disaster management on the nationalist agenda; the famine of 1974 confirmed its centrality, producing a social contract to protect the population against disasters and subsistence crises on which the country's acclaimed resilience to the effects of climate change rests. The Bhola cyclone also drew international attention to this neglected, little‐known region, and in general can be seen as foundational for the subsequent developmental achievements of Bangladesh.     

Vulnerability to tropical cyclones: evidence from the april 1991 cyclone in coastal bangladesh

In this article we report the results of a survey conducted in two coastal communities of Bangladesh less than two weeks after they were hit by the severe cyclone of April 29, 1991. It was found that almost all of the surveyed heads of households had received early warnings of the cyclone. Nevertheless, a majority of the respondents did not leave their homes to seek shelter. The two most common reasons given for this passive reaction were (i) fear of burglary and (ii) disbelief of the warnings. Thus, it appears that the existing system of early warnings is not having its intended effect and that it, and related disaster mitigation policies, need to be revised. Some suggestions are made as to what could be done.     

Cyclone preparedness and response: an analysis of lessons identified using an adapted military planning framework

The United Kingdom uses the Defence Lines of Development (DLOD) framework to analyse and understand the key components and costs of a military capability. Rooted in the Resource Based View (RBV) of a firm, an adapted DLOD approach is employed to explore, analyse and discuss the preparedness, planning and response strategies of two markedly different countries (Australia and Bangladesh) when faced with a major cyclone event of a comparable size. Given the numerous similarities in the challenges facing military forces in a complex emergency and humanitarian agencies in a natural disaster, the paper demonstrates the applicability of the DLOD framework as an analysis and planning tool in the cyclone preparedness planning and response phases, and more broadly within the disaster management area. In addition, the paper highlights the benefit to disaster managers, policymakers and researchers of exploiting comparative cross-learning opportunities from disaster events, drawn from different sectors and countries.     

Female adolescents and their sexuality: notions of honour, shame, purity and pollution during the floods

This paper explores the experiences of female adolescents during the 1998 floods in Bangladesh, focusing on the implications of socio-cultural norms related to notions of honour, shame, purity and pollution. These cultural notions are reinforced with greater emphasis as girls enter their adolescence, regulating their sexuality and gender relationships. In Bangladeshi society, adolescent girls are expected to maintain their virginity until marriage. Contact is limited to one's family and extended relations. Particularly among poorer families, adolescent girls tend to have limited mobility to safeguard their 'purity'. This is to ensure that the girl's reputation does not suffer, thus making it difficult for the girl to get married. For female adolescents in Bangladesh, a disaster situation is a uniquely vulnerable time. Exposure to the unfamiliar environment of flood shelters and relief camps, and unable to maintain their 'space' and privacy from male strangers, a number of the girls were vulnerable to sexual and mental harassment. With the floods, it became difficult for most of the girls to be appropriately 'secluded'. Many were unable to sleep, bathe or get access to latrines in privacy because so many houses and latrines were under the water. Some of the girls who had begun menstruation were distressed at not being able to keep themselves clean. Strong social taboos associated with menstruation and the dirty water that surrounded them made it difficult for the girls to wash their menstrual cloths or change them frequently enough. Many of them became separated from their social network of relations, which caused them a great deal of anxiety and stress. Their difficulty in trying to follow social norms have had far-reaching implications on their health, identity, family and community relations.     

Flood proneness and coping strategies: the experiences of two villages in Bangladesh

This paper explores peoples' indigenous survival strategies and assesses variations in people's ability to cope with floods in two flood‐prone villages in Bangladesh. It reveals that people continuously battle against flood vulnerability in accordance with their level of exposure and abilities, with varied strategies employed at different geophysical locations. The paper reports that people in an area with low flooding and with better socioeconomic circumstances are more likely to cope with impacts compared to people in areas with high and sudden flooding. Similarly, households' ability to cope varies depending on people's socioeconomic conditions, such as education, income and occupation. Although floods in Bangladesh generate socioeconomic misery and cause damage to the environment, health and infrastructure, people's indigenous coping strategies have helped them to reduce significantly their vulnerability. Such flood‐mitigating strategies should be well recognised and emphasised further via proper dissemination of information through an early‐warning system and subsequently external assistance.     

Special needs hurricane shelters and the ageing population: development of a methodology and a case study application

Recent experience of hurricanes, particularly in the southeast United States, has heightened awareness of the multifaceted nature of and the challenges to effective disaster relief planning. One key element of this planning is providing adequate shelter at secure locations for people who evacuate. Some of these individuals will have ‘special needs’, yet there is little research on the relationship with shelter space. This study designed a geographic information systems‐based network optimisation methodology for the siting of special needs hurricane relief shelters, with a focus on the transportation component. It sought to find new locations for shelters that maximise accessibility by vulnerable populations, given capacity constraints, concentrating on the ageing population. The framework was implemented in a medium‐sized metropolitan statistical area in the state of Florida where data suggest a possible deficit in special needs shelter space. The study analysed options for increasing special needs shelter capacity, while considering potential uncertainties in transportation network availability.     

The urban poor in Dhaka City: their struggles and coping strategies during the floods of 1998

Bangladesh experienced one of the worst floods in recorded history in 1998. This paper focuses on the needs and coping strategies of the urban poor in Dhaka City, which had been very badly affected. The city's roads were completely under water, and most areas were water-logged with drainage and sewage systems blocked. Rising water levels compelled many slum dwellers to move to temporary shelters and relief camps. Women and children were the worst affected. The lack of sanitation facilities and privacy forced women and children to defecate in their own homes. There was an acute scarcity of safe drinking-water, and food prices rose dramatically. Diarrhoea, fever and colds were the most common illnesses affecting the poor. The floods left many of them unemployed, and in some families, the result was increased tension and incidents of domestic violence. In some areas, members felt pressured to repay micro-credit loans. Most NGOs, however, suspended loan repayments. During this period, a committee was set up to co-ordinate and work towards addressing some of the main post-flood problems.     

Comparing reactions to two severe tornadoes in one Oklahoma community

The authors compared the effect of the 3 May 1999 F5 and 8 May 2003 F3 tornadoes on the community of Moore, Oklahoma, by canvassing damaged areas after both tornadoes and surveying residents. Significantly more 1999 than 2003 residents reported property damage and injuries. Television and tornado sirens were the most common warnings each year, however, more 1999 residents received and responded to television warnings. Importantly, storm shelters were used more frequently in 2003. Fifty-one per cent of residents who experienced both tornadoes took the same amount of protective action in 2003 as they had in 1999; 22% took less; and 27% took more. Residents who took less action said that the reason for doing so was inadequate warning and shelter. First-hand experience of tornadoes prompts people to heed warnings when adequate notification is received and to take effective protective action when adequate shelter is available.     

Characteristics of fear of crime in evacuation shelters after the Great East Japan Earthquake

After the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011, numerous evacuees had to stay in evacuation shelters such as school gymnasiums. In general, after a disaster, ensuring the safety and security of evacuees in evacuation shelters is a serious problem. Consequently, many of these evacuees feared that they would be victims of crime in the shelters or that their evacuated homes would be burgled. To examine what factors evoke a general fear of crime in shelters and burglary of evacuated homes, we conducted an online questionnaire on 300 evacuees in Miyagi Prefecture who had stayed at such shelters. From a factor analysis of fear of 16 specific kinds of crime in shelters, we extracted two factors representing fear of property and female-related crime. We then found that a general fear of crime in shelters was associated with being young and a fear of female-related crime, while a fear of burglary of evacuated homes was associated with being female, owning a detached house, and fear of property crime. Based on these results, we provide recommendations aiming to help reduce the fear of crime in shelters and burglary of evacuated homes.     

Traditional warning signs of cyclones on remote islands in Fiji and Tonga

Traditional knowledge of disasters has been found to save lives. On remote islands where telecommunications to the mainland are unreliable, unless there are always working batteries in the radio, signs from the environment may be the only warning of an oncoming cyclone. But this knowledge is in danger of being lost, as it is an oral history not well documented, and younger people increasingly rely on technology. This article presents the results of fieldwork on remote islands in Fiji and Tonga in the South Pacific, documenting natural warning signs on islands in two different countries. The results show that there are numerous known signs, with remarkable similarities and consistencies between the two islands. This provides evidence that not only is traditional knowledge of warning signs for cyclones alive and well, the consistency in the signs suggests support for this knowledge as being just as important as western scientific knowledge. The integration of traditional knowledge and western scientific knowledge into a comprehensive warning system may help to overcome some of the limitations of the existing system and the reasons why warnings are sometimes ignored.     

辽宁地区一次暴雨过程成因的位涡诊断分析

2003年8月5—6日，受东移北上的华北气旋的影响，辽宁省大部分地区出现暴雨天气，其中彰武、本溪等地出现局地大暴雨。应用MM5非静力中尺度模式对这次暴雨过程进行了数值模拟，在模拟结果的基础上，利用位涡分析方法对这次过程进行了诊断分析。结果表明，在对流层低层有正位涡扰动存在，对强对流天气具有触发作用；对流层中低层的相对高位涡中心和对流层高层的较强低位涡中心相配合，有利于形成低层辐合与高层辐散，使得气旋得以维持和发展，从而为对流性降水提供了必要条件；在对流层中低层，出现高位涡中心地区可能形成暴雨中心。