飓风“桑迪＂的影响及启示研究

城市地区突发自然灾害常常会对给水排水设施造成不利影响。飓风“桑迪”于2012年10月29日登陆美国,多个东部城市出现大面积停电,缺水,交通中断以及罕见的城市内涝,造成重大人员伤亡和巨额财产损失,严重地影响了当地人们正常的生产和生活。从飓风“桑迪”对美国城市给水和排水系统造成的巨大破坏出发,并结合当地政府采取的紧急应对措施展开讨论,总结其中的经验教训及启示。     

航天发射场风险分析系统研究

针对航天发射场地面设备风险分析现状和需求,讨论了应用概率风险评价(PRA)方法的必要性,并结合发射场提出了一种风险评价综合指数,研究设计了一种基于PRA方法的发射场风险分析系统,实现了"定性分析、定量计算、定标评价"目的,同时以加注系统为例,阐述了基于任务剖面和结构剖面的风险分析模型的构建,以为航天发射场安全工作提供借鉴与帮助。     

高铁建设项目安全风险分析及对策研究——以西宝客运专线Ⅱ标为例

本文针对国内高铁客运专线建设项目,对如何识别风险、分析风险、控制风险和应对风险进行了初步研究,并以西宝高铁建设项目为例,通过风险分析评价了该客运专线建设项目的风险因素,确定了各种因素对建设项目实施的影响程度大小,并依据风险分析的结果提出了加强该客运专线建设施工风险管理的主要对策,以实现将风险有效地控制在决策者预定的范围之内。该研究可为高铁客运专线建设项目的施工风险管理工作提供理论及实践的借鉴。     

茶叶霜冻气象指数保险设计

根据茶叶基地历年茶叶逐日经济产出,确定茶叶进入开采期或开采期前遭受霜冻的经济损失率与最低气温的关系。利用支持向量机将位于各乡镇、街道的中尺度自动气象站的最低气温资料延长到30 a;最低气温和茶叶经济损失率相对应,因此通过根据最低气温资料计算不同等级霜冻出现风险确定茶叶经济损失风险,解决了茶叶品种种植时间短、中尺度自动气象站资料积累时间短,不能满足风险分析要求的问题。利用多种风险分析模型拟合分析各乡镇、街道茶叶处于不同开采期时的最低气温分布,从中选择最优的理论概率分布函数进行序列的风险概率估算,得到较为稳定并符合实际的风险评估结果。在风险定量分析基础上,从浙江省政策性农业保险经营的实际需要出发,综合区域产量保险和气象指数保险的优点,设计了精细化到乡镇一级的茶叶霜冻气象指数保险,降低了农业保险中存在的基差风险、逆选择和道德风险,在灾后理赔时不需要大量的人力、物力勘查定损,理赔时效高、理赔成本低,为开展茶叶政策性农业保险提供技术支撑。     

风险分析与风险评价方法综述

介绍了常用风险分析方法的适用范围和优缺点,对国际上新出现的、有发展前景的基于CFD的风险评价方法、临床风险与失误分析(CREA)、SHE评估等方法进行了重点评述,并对风险分析与风险评价方法的发展趋势进行了展望.     

基于信息扩散理论的尘肺病风险评估研究

在进行尘肺病职业危害风险评估时,由于相关信息获得难度大、样本数量少,传统的统计模型基本上无法满足风险分析的需求。基于信息扩散原理,通过扩散函数对不完备信息进行适当的扩充,建立起观测样本和风险概率分布的映射关系,构建了评估区域尘肺病风险分析模型,并利用某省2009—2013年新发尘肺病病例数以及新增的Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ期尘肺病病例数作为尘肺病风险分析样本,应用构建的尘肺病风险分析模型,对上述各类尘肺病的潜在风险进行评估,以为尘肺病预防和治理提供依据。     

基于风险系统理论的区域环境风险优化管理

文章依据风险系统理论,构建区域环境风险区划的层次结构模型与指标体系,提出区域环境风险综合指数由风险源危险性指数、控制机制有效性指数、受体易损性指数组成。通过区域环境风险定量分析,依据区域环境风险综合指数数值,确定风险管理的优先地区及环节。同时对常州市新北区进行了实例分析,将春江镇确定为优先风险管理区域,明确了该镇进行风险管理的优先环节,并基于量化的风险分析提出风险管理优化的建议。     

基于数值模拟的城市绿地景观格局优化研究

该研究结合景观生态学原理,在沈阳市设计不同生态功能的绿楔、绿带、绿道、公园及其他类型的绿地,形成了"四带、三环、七楔、网络连接"的城市绿地网络空间结构优化方案。结合遥感(RS)与地理信息系统(GIS)空间分析技术,基于计算流体力学(CFD)数值模拟技术对夏季绿地景观优化格局影响下的大气环境效应进行分析,并提出相应的城市绿地规划优化策略。模拟结果表明:城市风速、SO_2以及温度的空间扩散与城市的空间布局密切相关;城市绿地优化空间布局能有效地缓解城市热岛效应,促进SO_2的空间扩散,更好地形成城市通风廊道,同时,随着高度的增加,城市风速、SO_2以及温度的空间扩散的阻力逐渐降低。基于CFD的城市绿地大气环境效应研究,能有效地对城市绿地系统规划的优化措施和概念性设计进行模拟研究和评估,也为城市绿地系统的量化规划提供了新思路。     

基于高空间分辨率遥感影像的城市绿地提取方法研究

城市绿地是城市生态系统的一个重要子系统,在改善城市环境质量和居民生活水平方面扮演着越来越重要的作用。因此,如何及时获取城市绿地的分布及其变化,对于保护城市生态环境至关重要。本研究提出了一种基于高空间分辨率遥感影像的城市绿地提取方法,并珠海市为研究区域,利用Worldview-2遥感影像进行了城市绿地提取实验。结果表明,城市绿地提取结果比较理想,总体精度为94．09%,Kappa系数为0．94,但建设用地和裸地、城市绿地和建设用地之间仍然容易错分。     

美国环境污染责任保险发展的法律背景

在美国的保险市场上,大多数商业财产和责任保险单都将污染风险列为除外责任.为了满足市场对污染风险保障的需要,美国保险市场开发了各种环境保险.最早的产品是1977年出台的环境损害责任保险( EIL),也称作污染责任保险.此后,美国的环境保险市市场得到迅猛发展,而各种环境立法的推进和完善是其主要的发展动力.     

A social assessment of urban parkland: Analyzing park use and meaning to inform management and resilience planning

Globally, municipalities are tackling climate adaptation and resilience planning. Urban green space has crucial biophysical buffering capacities, but also affects social interactions and human well-being. This paper considers the social dimension of urban green space, through an assessment focused on park use, function, and meanings, and compares results to categories of cultural ecosystem services. We develop a mixed-method approach for assessment of uses and social meanings of parkland and pilot this method in 2140 acres of parkland in waterfront neighborhoods surrounding New York City’s Jamaica Bay, an area heavily affected by Hurricane Sandy. This method combines observation of human activities and signs of prior human use with structured interviews of park users. We find that urban parkland is a crucial form of ‘nearby nature’ that provides space for recreation, activities, socialization, and environmental engagement and supports place attachment and social ties. We show that parks, through their use by and interactions with humans, are producing vital cultural ecosystem services that may help to strengthen social resilience. Certain services were more easily detectable than others via our assessment technique, including recreation, social relations, and sense of place. The assessment method was designed to be spatially explicit, scalable, and replicable; natural resource managers engaged in park management and/or resilience planning could apply this method across individual sites, in particular districts—such as vulnerable waterfront areas, and citywide. This study demonstrates a way in which cultural ecosystem services and an understanding of social meaning could be incorporated into park management and resilience planning.     

Managing climate change risks in New York City’s water system: assessment and adaptation planning

Managing risk by adapting long-lived infrastructure to the effects of climate change must become a regular part of planning for water supply, sewer, wastewater treatment, and other urban infrastructure during this century. The New York City Department of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP), the agency responsible for managing New York City’s (NYC) water supply, sewer, and wastewater treatment systems, has developed a climate risk management framework through its Climate Change Task Force, a government-university collaborative effort. Its purpose is to ensure that NYCDEP’s strategic and capital planning take into account the potential risks of climate change—sea-level rise, higher temperature, increases in extreme events, changes in drought and flood frequency and intensity, and changing precipitation patterns—on NYC’s water systems. This approach will enable NYCDEP and other agencies to incorporate adaptations to the risks of climate change into their management, investment, and policy decisions over the long term as a regular part of their planning activities. The framework includes a 9-step Adaptation Assessment procedure. Potential climate change adaptations are divided into management, infrastructure, and policy categories, and are assessed by their relevance in terms of climate change time-frame (immediate, medium, and long term), the capital cycle, costs, and other risks. The approach focuses on the water supply, sewer, and wastewater treatment systems of NYC, but has wide application for other urban areas, especially those in coastal locations.     

英国机遇区规划对中国国土空间规划的启示

随着中国城镇化步入中后期发展阶段,以及空间规划改革与高质量发展的时代背景下,城市更新是存量时代城市空间可持续发展的关键议题。但目前还存在着城市更新在国土空间规划体系中定位不清晰等问题,如何更好地推动新时代国土空间规划衔接和融入城市更新,作为解决城市病、进行城市空间治理的有效手段亟待探索。简要梳理城市更新研究进展,以英国伦敦的大型城市更新规划—机遇区规划作为典型案例,分析机遇区规划的概念内涵、演变过程及不同类型,重点解析以金融和创新产业为重点的商业发展型、以维护和延续历史风貌为重点的文化旅游型、以棕地修复和发展绿色产业为重点的工业发展型等三种具有代表性典型机遇区规划项目。在此基础上,提出英国伦敦机遇区更新规划对中国国土空间规划的启示：在五级三类国土空间规划体系中明确城市更新的定位及编制要求与标准;以城市更新为抓手,促进城市存量空间人居环境质量与社会公平和谐;对不同类型城市以及城市不同类型地块,均需因地制宜地构建差异化的城市更新策略;借鉴基于自然的解决方案,尊重城市区域的自然资源本底和地理属性特征;延续城市历史文脉,挖掘打造地方性、有特色的城市精神。     

北京市六环内绿色空间滞蓄雨水径流功能的变化评估

面对日益频发的城市内涝问题,科学认识绿色空间控制雨水径流的作用具有重要意义。论文以北京市六环内区域为研究区,评估了2000-2010年绿色空间滞蓄雨水径流的功能及其变化。结果表明：2000-2010年北京城市绿色空间减少198.49 km²,主要表现为农田和荒草地面积减小,五到六环内绿色空间缩减最为严重,且最大斑块指数（LPI）和聚集度指数（AI）均减小,景观破碎化趋势明显。绿色空间夏季滞蓄雨水径流量由2000年的1.32×10⁸ m³增加到2010年的1.46×10⁸ m³,但雨水滞蓄率相应地由23.43%下降到16.89%,这与绿色空间面积减小和景观格局变化有关。此外,五到六环内绿色空间滞蓄雨水径流能力最高,滞蓄率高达22%~32%,且逐年呈降低趋势;二到三环内绿色空间滞蓄雨水能力最低,需要重点加强暴雨内涝防治。这主要与不同环路内绿色空间的面积和斑块连通性有关。因此,建议优化调整北京市六环内绿色空间的组成结构和景观格局,充分发挥其滞蓄雨水径流功能,以降低城市内涝风险。     

The value of urban ecosystem services in New York City: A spatially explicit multicriteria analysis of landscape scale valuation scenarios

Mapping, modeling, and valuing urban ecosystem services are important for integrating the ecosystem services concept in urban planning and decision-making. However, decision-support tools able to consider multiple ecosystem services in the urban setting using complex and heterogeneous data are still in early development. Here, we use New York City (NYC) as a case study to evaluate and analyze how the value of multiple ecosystem services of urban green infrastructure shifts with shifting governance priorities. We first examined the spatial distribution of five ecosystem services – storm water absorption, carbon storage, air pollution removal, local climate regulation, and recreation – to create the first multiple ecosystem services evaluation of all green infrastructure in NYC. Then, combining an urban ecosystem services landscape approach with spatial multicriteria analysis weighting scenarios, we examine the distribution of these ecosystem services in the city. We contrast the current NYC policy preference – which is focused on heavy investment in stormwater absorption – with a valuation approach that also accounts for other ecosystem services. We find substantial differences in the spatial distribution of priority areas for green infrastructure for the valuation scenarios. Among the scenarios we examined for NYC, we find that a scenario in which only stormwater absorption is prioritized leads to the most unevenly distributed ES values. By contrast, we find least variation in ES values where stormwater absorption, local climate regulation, carbon storage, air pollution removal, and recreational potential are all weighted equally.We suggest that green infrastructure planning strategies should include all landscape components that contribute to the production of ecosystem services and consider how planning priority alternatives generate different ecosystem services values.     

维护良性水循环的城镇化LID模式:海绵城市规划方法与技术初步探讨

海绵城市是低影响开发模式(Low Impact Development,LID)的重要途径,也是解决我国城市水问题的重要举措。论文从良性水循环理念的角度,针对城市防洪排涝、面源污染控制以及雨洪资源化利用等三大核心问题,以城市雨洪模拟技术和LID优化技术方法为重点,探讨了支撑海绵城市实施的关键技术方法,构建了具有自主知识产权的城市雨洪模型;并以首批海绵城市试点常德市为例进行了应用研究。研究得出:现状常德城区径流系数在0.33~0.81之间,平均值为0.64;按确保年径流总量控制目标的实现,采用渗、滞和蓄等多种LID消纳各地块径流,城区90%的地块均能达到控制目标,下沉式绿地、透水铺装和绿色屋顶总面积分别为496.75、1 338.15和613.21 hm2,占各地块面积的3.9%~31.4%之间。污染负荷SS削减率在45.0%~47.7%之间,平均削减率为46.1%。常德城区通过实施LID措施,雨洪径流和污染负荷的输出量将显著降低,基本能够达到控制目标。研究为常德海绵城市规划设计提供了重要技术支撑和理论依据,为我国海绵城市规划方法和技术研究提供了参考。     

基于GIS的长沙市洪涝灾害风险动态评估

运用GIS技术的空间分析与建模功能构建洪涝灾害风险评估模型,以长沙市地理基础数据、遥感数据、气象水文、社会统计数据为基础,从洪涝灾害的危险性、暴露性、敏感性三个角度出发,对长沙市洪灾风险进行动态评价.结果表明：与1994年相比,2010年长沙市洪灾敏感性有所增加,暴露性上升,洪灾风险增大;从空间分布上看,长沙市区及望城区由于地势平坦,湘江干流贯穿其中,加之经济发达,因而洪灾风险较高;而西部的宁乡县和东部的浏阳市洪灾风险较低;提出了有针对性的防洪措施.该评价结果与实际情况相符,可为洪灾风险管理与决策提供科学依据.     

城市景观生态建设探讨——以长沙市芙蓉区为例

城市景观生态建设是城市生态规划建设的重要内容。在归纳总结了城市景观生态的特点和规划内容的基础上,以长沙市芙蓉区为例,分析了长沙市芙蓉区景观生态现状,并运用景观生态学原理,对长沙市芙蓉区景观生态建设提出了一些建议和措施,具体包括：景观的生态框架设计,种群源（斑块）工程,廊道与节点工程,城市山水生态工程,城市绿地建设工程和城市景观文化规划。通过上述具体的生态景观规划和建设,使长沙市芙蓉区的景观生态能得到较大改善,更好地为城市生态功能服务。     

The impact of urban planning on land use and land cover in Pudong of Shanghai,China

Functional zones in cities constitute the most conspicuous components of newly developed urban areas,and have been a hot spot for domestic and foreign investors in China,which not only show the expanse of urban space accompanied by the shifts both in landscape(from rural to urban)and land use(from less extensive to extensive),but also display the transformation of regional ecological functions.By using the theories and methods of landscape ecology,the structure of landscapes and landscape ecological planning can be analyzed and evaluated for studying the urban functional zones‘layout.In 1990,the Central Govermment of China declared to develop and open up Pudong New Area so as to promote economic development in Shanghai.Benefited from the advantages of Shanghai‘s location and economy,the government of Pudong New Area has successively built up 7 different functional zones over the past decade according to their functions and strategic goals.Based on the multi-spectral satellite imageries taken in 1990,1997and 2000,a landscape ecolgy analysis was carried out for Pudong New Area of Sanghai ,supported by GIS technology.Green space(including croplands )and built-up areas are the major factors considered in developing urban landscape.This paper was mainly concerned with the different spatial patterns and dynamics of green space,built-up areas and new buildings in different functional zones,as influenced by different spatial patterns and dynamics of green space,built-up areas and new buildings in different functional zones,as influenced by different functional layouts and development strategies.The rapid urbanization in Pudong New Area resulted in a more homogeneous landscape.Agricultural landscape and suburban landscape were gradually replaced by urban landscape as the degree of urbanization increased.As a consequence of urbanization in Pudong,not only built-up patches,but also newly-built patches and green patches merged into one large patch,which should be attributed to the construction policy of extensive green space as the urban development process in Pudong New Area.The shape of green area of 7 functional zones became more and more regular because of the horticultural needs in Shanghai urban planning.Some suggestions were finally made for the study of future urban planning and layout.