Assessment of Tree Rings as a Hydrologic Record in a Humid Subtropical Environment1

Crockett, Kris, Jonathan B. Martin, Henri D. Grissino-Mayer, Evan R. Larson, and Thomas Mirti, 2010. Assessment of Tree Rings as a Hydrologic Record in a Humid Subtropical Environment. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1-13. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00464.x Abstract: Information about long-term variability of streamflow is important to allocate water resources, but few historical records extend more than 75 years into the past, requiring proxy records to evaluate flow prior to that time. Flow proxies have been found in tree-ring widths in temperate regions, but have rarely been used in humid subtropical environments because the relationship between tree growth and climate was believed to be weakened by limited seasonality and stress on tree growth from drought conditions. Tree-ring residual chronologies from two forests sampled from northern Florida correlate well with historical annual discharge (r² values as high as 0.47) from 3 of 15 river-gauging stations that were used to compare with the tree-ring chronologies. The best correlations occur where streamflow has little contribution from spring discharge or continuous flow from lakes and wetlands. Streams lack correlations with the tree-ring residual chronologies (r² values as low as 0.0002) where springs and continuous discharge from lakes mute variations in their flow. Tree-ring chronologies appear to be useful for reconstruction of prehistorical variations of some streamflow in humid subtropical regions, but interpretations of the reconstructions must consider the local hydrologic conditions.     

TREE-RING RECONSTRUCTION OF UPPER GILA RWER DISCHARGE1

ABSTRACT: Effective planning for use of water resources requires accurate information on hydrologic variability induced by climatic fluctuations. Tree-ring analysis is one method of extending our knowledge of hydrologic variability beyond the relatively short period covered by gaged streamflow records. In this paper, a network of recently developed tree-ring chronologies is used to reconstruct annual river discharge in the upper Gila River drainage in southeastern Arizona and southwestern Arizona since A.D. 1663. The need for data on hydrologic variability for this semi-arid basin is accentuated because water supply is inadequate to meet current demand. A reconstruction based on multiple linear regression (R²=0.66) indicates that 20th century is unusual for clustering of high-discharge years (early 1900s), severity of multiyear drought (1950s), and amplification of low-frequency discharge variations. Periods of low discharge recur at irregular intervals averaging about 20 years. Comparison with other tree-ring reconstructions shows that these low-flow periods are synchronous from the Gila Basin to the southern part of the Upper Colorado River Basin.     

Pre-instrumental perspectives on Arkansas River cross-watershed flow variability

We present four reconstruction estimates of Arkansas River baseflow and streamflow using a total of 78 tree-ring chronologies for three streamflow gages, geographically spanning the headwaters in Colorado to near the confluence of the Arkansas-Mississippi rivers. The estimates represent different seasonal windows, which are dictated by the shared limiting forcing of precipitation on seasonal tree growth and soil moisture—and subsequently on the variability of Arkansas River discharge. Flow extremes that were higher and lower than what has been observed in the instrumental era are recorded in each of the four reconstructions. Years of concurrent, cross-basin (all sites) low flow appear more frequently during the 20th and 21st Centuries compared to any period since 1600 A.D., however, no significant trend in cross-basin low flow is observed. As the most downstream major tributary of the Mississippi River, the Arkansas River directly influences flood risk in the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Estimates of extreme high flow in downstream reconstructions coincide with specific years of historic flooding documented in New Orleans, Louisiana, just upstream of the Mississippi River Delta. By deduction, Mississippi River flooding in years of low Arkansas River flow imply exceptional flooding contributions from the Upper Mississippi River catchments.     

Reconstructions of Soil Moisture for the Upper Colorado River Basin Using Tree‐Ring Chronologies1

Anderson, SallyRose, Glenn Tootle, and Henri Grissino‐Mayer, 2012. Reconstructions of Soil Moisture for the Upper Colorado River Basin Using Tree‐Ring Chronologies. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(4): 849‐858. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00651.x Abstract: Soil moisture is an important factor in the global hydrologic cycle, but existing reconstructions of historic soil moisture are limited. We used tree‐ring chronologies to reconstruct annual soil moisture in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Gridded soil moisture data were spatially regionalized using principal components analysis and k‐nearest neighbor techniques. We correlated moisture sensitive tree‐ring chronologies in and adjacent to the UCRB with regional soil moisture and tested the relationships for temporal stability. Chronologies that were positively correlated and stable for the calibration period were retained. We used stepwise linear regression to identify the best predictor combinations for each soil moisture region. The regressions explained 42‐78% of the variability in soil moisture data. We performed reconstructions for individual soil moisture grid cells to enhance understanding of the disparity in reconstructive skill across the regions. Reconstructions that used chronologies based on ponderosa pines (Pinus ponderosa) and pinyon pines (Pinus edulis) explained more variance in the datasets. Reconstructed soil moisture data was standardized and compared with standardized reconstructed streamflow and snow water equivalent data from the same region. Soil moisture and other hydrologic variables were highly correlated, indicating reconstructions of soil moisture in the UCRB using tree‐ring chronologies successfully represent hydrologic trends.     

400 YEARS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY RECONSTRUCTED FROM TREE-RINGS1

ABSTRACT: Coastal central California is a region that has never been the subject of tree-ring studies. New tree-ring chronologies developed from cores of big cone spruce (Pseudotusuga macrocarpa (Torr.) Mayr.) growing in the Transverse Ranges of central Santa Barbara county were used to reconstruct precipitation fluctuations for this region. To verify the new reconstructions, calibration with recorded rainfall using cross-validation, comparison with other reconstructions, and documentary evidence from historical sources were utilized. The precipitation reconstructions show that there have not been fluctuations in mean precipitation on time scales longer than 30 years, but there have been major fluctuations in precipitation variability including changes in the frequency of extremes and rare events that have not occurred in the modern record.     

COMPARISON OF REGRESSION AND TIME-SERIES METHODS FOR SYNTHESIZING MISSING STREAMFLOW RECORDS1

ABSTRACT: Regression and time-series techniques have been used to synthesize and predict the stream flow at the Foresta Bridge gage from information at the upstream Pohono Bridge gage on the Merced River near Yosemite National Park. Using the available data from two time periods (calendar year 1979 and water year 1986), we evaluated the two techniques in their ability to model the variation in the observed flows and in their ability to predict stream flow at the Foresta Bridge gage for the 1979 time period with data from the 1986 time period. Both techniques produced reasonably good estimates and forecasts of the flow at the downstream gage. However, the regression model was found to have a significant amount of autocorrelation in the residuals, which the time-series model was able to eliminate. The time-series technique presented can be of great assistance in arriving at reasonable estimates of flow in data sets that have large missing portions of data.     

Development of Macroinvertebrate-Based Index for Bioassessment of Idaho Rivers

Theoretical constructs, such as the river continuum concept, predict that the composition of benthic fauna in rivers will be different from that of headwater streams. There exists a need to modify, for use on larger rivers, the bioassessment techniques commonly used on small streams. Using aquatic macroinvertebrates and the “reference condition” approach, we developed and tested a multimetric index for use on the rivers of Idaho. Reference sites were selected to represent the best current conditions (i.e., least impacted) among Idaho rivers. The index performed well in distinguishing reference sites from sites displaying some form of anthropogenic impairment. Individual metrics used in the index included: number of EPT taxa, total number of taxa, percent dominant taxon, percent Elmidae, and percent predators. The index we developed for Idaho rivers was essentially a modification of a framework designed for small streams, suggesting that techniques, including data analysis, currently used for streams can be adapted for use on larger rivers. Adapting these methods for use in rivers is primarily a matter of (1) selecting metrics relevant to the rivers of interest; (2) expanding the field sampling to encompass the greater habitat area and, potentially, heterogeneity of rivers; and (3) selecting an appropriate form of data analysis. The approach we describe here should be applicable to geographic regions other than Idaho.     

Towards an ecologically meaningful classification of the flow biotope for river inventory, rehabilitation, design and appraisal purposes

Recent research into the physical and ecological status of rivers has focused upon rapid field-based assessments of mesoscale habitat features in order to satisfy international regulatory requirements for habitat inventory and appraisal. Despite the low cost and time efficient nature of rapid field surveys, the robustness of such techniques remains uncertain. This paper uses data from over 4000 surveyed UK river reaches in the UK River Habitat Survey (RHS) database in order to seek linkages between surface flow conditions (flow biotopes), local channel morphology (physical biotopes) and biologically distinct vegetative and minerogenic habitat units (functional habitats). Attempts to identify one-to-one connections between surface flow types, units of channel morphology and functional habitats oversimplify a complex and dynamic hydraulic environment. Instead, a nested hierarchy of reach-scale physical and ecological habitat structures exists, characterised by transferable assemblages of habitat units. Five flow biotopes show strong correlations with functional habitats, and differing combinations of three of these account for over 60% of the distribution for all functional habitats. On this basis, a classification of environments for ecological purposes is proposed. Principal components analysis and agglomerative hierarchical clustering analysis are employed to objectively validate the proposed classification. Flow biotope assemblages may also represent reach-scale channel morphologies (step-pool, riffle-pool and glide-pool), although functional habitats exhibit differing 'preferences' for rougher or more tranquil environments within these. While the data and analysis are specific to the UK RHS, the methods and findings have wider application in situations, where rapid field appraisal methods and associated databases are deployed in water resource inventory and river rehabilitation design.     

Valuing river characteristics using combined site choice and participation travel cost models

This paper presents new welfare measures for marginal changes in river quality in selected English rivers. The river quality indicators used include chemical, biological and habitat-level attributes. Economic values for recreational use of three types of river-upland, lowland and chalk-are presented. A survey of anglers was carried out and using these data, two travel cost models were estimated, one to predict the numbers of trips and the other to predict angling site choice. These models were then linked to estimate the welfare associated with marginal changes in river quality using the participation levels as estimated in the trip prediction model. The model results showed that higher flow rates, biological quality and nutrient pollution levels affect site choice and influence the likelihood of a fishing trip. Consumer surplus values per trip for a 10% change in river attributes range from pound 0.04 to pound 3.93 ( pound 2001) depending on the attribute.     

Modeling Flow and Sediment Transport in a River System Using an Artificial Neural Network

A river system is a network of intertwining channels and tributaries, where interacting flow and sediment transport processes are complex and floods may frequently occur. In water resources management of a complex system of rivers, it is important that instream discharges and sediments being carried by streamflow are correctly predicted. In this study, a model for predicting flow and sediment transport in a river system is developed by incorporating flow and sediment mass conservation equations into an artificial neural network (ANN), using actual river network to design the ANN architecture, and expanding hydrological applications of the ANN modeling technique to sediment yield predictions. The ANN river system model is applied to modeling daily discharges and annual sediment discharges in the Jingjiang reach of the Yangtze River and Dongting Lake, China. By the comparison of calculated and observed data, it is demonstrated that the ANN technique is a powerful tool for real-time prediction of flow and sediment transport in a complex network of rivers. A significant advantage of applying the ANN technique to model flow and sediment phenomena is the minimum data requirements for topographical and morphometric information without significant loss of model accuracy. The methodology and results presented show that it is possible to integrate fundamental physical principles into a data-driven modeling technique and to use a natural system for ANN construction. This approach may increase model performance and interpretability while at the same time making the model more understandable to the engineering community.     

A VERIFICATION OF THE QUAL-1 WATER QUALITY MODEL FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes the verification of the QUAL-1 mass transport model for the lower Mississippi River between St. Francisville and Point a la Hache using dye studies conducted by the U. S. Geological Survey. QUAL-1 is a one-dimensional steady-state model for rivers and is capable of predicting longitudinal profiles of soluble materials entering rivers from point sources. Both conservative and nonconservative parameters of water quality can be considered. The major problems surmounted were the determination of a diffusion coefficient and the use of transient data to verify a steady state model.     

THE TREE-RING RECORD OF SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT1

ABSTRACT: Frequent and persistent droughts exacerbate the problems caused by the inherent scarcity of water in the semiarid to arid parts of the southwestern United States. The occurrence of drought is driven by climatic variability, which for years before about the beginning of the 20th century in the Southwest must be inferred from proxy records. As part of a multidisciplinary study of the potential hydrologic impact of severe sustained drought on the Colorado River, the physical basis and limitations of tree rings as indicators of severe sustained drought are reviewed, and tree-ring data are analyzed to delineate a “worst-case” drought scenario for the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Runs analysis of a 121-site tree-ring network, 1600–1962, identifies a four-year drought in the 1660s as the longest-duration large-scale drought in the Southwest in the recent tree-ring record. Longer tree-ring records suggest a much longer and more severe drought in 1579–1598. The regression estimate of the mean annual Colorado River flow for this period is 10.95 million acre-feet, or 81 percent of the long-term mean. The estimated flows for the 1500s should be used with caution in impact studies because sample size is small and some reconstructed values are extrapolations.     

Nitrogen Flow Analysis in Huizhou, South China

Eutrophication due to uncontrolled discharges of nitrogen and phosphorus has become a serious pollution problem in many Chinese rivers. This article analyzes the nitrogen flow in Huizhou City in the East River watershed in south China. The material accounting method was applied to investigate the nitrogen flows related to human activities, which consist of the natural and anthropogenic systems. In Huizhou City, the nonpoint source pollution was quantified by the export coefficient method and the domestic discharge was estimated as the product of per capita nitrogen contribution and population. This research was conducted based on statistical information and field data from 1998 in the Huizhou City. The results indicated that the major nitrogen flows in this area were river loads, fertilizer and feedstuff imports, atmospheric deposition, animal manure volatilization, and processes related to burning and other emissions. In 1998, about 40% of the nitrogen was retained in the system and could result in potential environmental problems. Nitrogen export was mainly by rivers, which account for about 57% of the total nitrogen exported. Comparisons made between the East River and the Danube and Yangtze Rivers show that the unit area nitrogen export was of the same magnitude and the per capita nitrogen export was comparable.     

FLOOD ROUTING THROUGH A FLAT,COMPLEX FLOODPLAIN USING A ONE-DIMENSIONAL UNSTEADY FLOW COMPUTER PROGRAM1

ABSTRACT: The routing of flood waves through the Central Basin of the Passaic River in New Jersey is complex because of flat gradients and flow reversals. The one-dimensional unsteady flow program DWOPER, developed by the National Weather Service, was used to simulate flood wave movement through the Basin. A historical event was used for calibration and two synthetic events were simulated. Boundary conditions consisted of discharge hydrographs at inflow points to the study area, local flow hydrographs at interior points, and a stage discharge relation for flow over the crest of a diversion dam at the basin outlet. Manning's n values were adjusted based on stage and discharge data for the historical event; however, verification data were not available for events comparable in magnitude to the synthetic events. Aspects of the investigation reported include techniques for characterizing the flow system, model calibration, techniques for representing a tunnel diversion, and simulation results.     

SACRAMENTO RIVER FLOW RECONSTRUCTED TO A.D. 869 FROM TREE RINGS1

ABSTRACT: A time series of annual flow of the Sacramento River, California, is reconstructed to A.D. 869 from tree rings for a long‐term perspective on hydrologic drought. Reconstructions derived by principal components regression of flow on time‐varying subsets of tree‐ring chronologies account for 64 to 81 percent of the flow variance in the 1906 to 1977 calibration period. A Monte Carlo analysis of reconstructed n‐year running means indicates that the gaged record contains examples of drought extremes for averaging periods of perhaps = 6 to 10 years, but not for longer and shorter averaging periods. For example, the estimated probability approaches 1.0 that the flow in A.D. 1580 was lower than the lowest single‐year gaged flow. The tree‐ring record also suggests that persistently high or low flows over 50‐year periods characterize some parts of the long‐term flow history. The results should contribute to sensible water resources planning for the Sacramento Basin and to the methodology of incorporating tree‐ring data in the assessment of the probability of hydrologic drought.     

GENERATED MONTHLY STREAMFLOWS FOR THE MIDWESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT A critical examination of single gage site, monthly streamflow statistical characteristics for two southern Illinois rivers, an Oklahoma river and a Texas river was made using a digital computer at Northwestern University. High flow variability for the rivers was evident in that, for the rivers tested, 8 to 11 months had coefficients of variation in excess of unity. The gamma distribution was not as efficient as the normal distribution for fitting power or logarithmic transforms of the historical monthly flow data (i.e., F^1-0, F^0-5, F^0-25, Fa¹²⁵, F^0.085, and log F). No single transform to a normal distribution was adequate for all twelve monthly flows, since definite seasonal grouping patterns were found for the four rivers examined. The highly variable flow in the low-flow season(s) indicated much more skewness than was typical of the remainder of the year. For the low-flow seasons, the higher-root (smaller exponent) transforms were particularly useful. Flows were generated from a linear regression model of lag one utilizing two or more transforms for the twelve periods. The definite seasonal patterns found historically were reproduced quite well in the generated streamflows. The effect of a change in data transform from one season to the next was insignificant after one month. Thus the use of different transforms within the year did not bias the results from the linear regression model appreciably, but did help in reproducing the seasonal distribution pattern. The technique seems especially well suited for rivers with highly variable flows.     

Diversion of the Ganges Water at Farakka and Its Effects on Salinity in Bangladesh

/ The Ganges River supplies water to the southwest region of Bangladesh mainly through one of its distributaries-the Gorai River. India commissioned a barrage on the Ganges River at Farakka in April 1975 to divert water and make the Bhagirathi-Hooghly River navigable. The diversion has reduced the dry season discharge of the Ganges and Gorai rivers in Bangladesh. Statistical analyses indicate that the changes in the dry season discharge of these rivers are significant. Reduced discharge in the Gorai River has induced accelerated sedimentation and increased salinity in the southwest region of Bangladesh. Empirical analyses demonstrate the relationship between discharge in the Gorai River and salinity. Analyses also determine the requirement of flow for the Ganges and Gorai rivers to keep salinity at threshold limits. Increased salinity has caused negative effects on agriculture, forestry, industry, and drinking water in the southwest region of Bangladesh.KEY WORDS: Bangladesh; Ganges River; Gorai River; Farakka diversion; Salinity     

Identification of pollution of Tapeng Lagoon from neighbouring rivers using multivariate statistical method

This work investigated water samples collected from Tapeng Lagoon and three neighbouring rivers (the Kaoping River, Tungkang River and Lingbeng River) in Taiwan, Republic of China. Canonical discriminant analysis was applied to identify the source of pollution in neighbouring rivers outside Tapeng Lagoon. The two constructed discriminant functions showed a marked contribution to all discriminant variables, and the total nitrogen, algae, dissolved oxygen and total phosphate were combined as the nutrient effect factor. The recognition capacities of the two discriminant functions were 95.6% and 4.4%, respectively. The water quality in the Kaoping River most strongly controlled the water quality in Tapeng Lagoon. Disassembling the oyster frames and fishery boxes had improved the water quality markedly. The methodology and results provide useful information concerning watershed management and may be applicable to other basins with similar properties that are experiencing similar coastal environmental issues.     

COLUMBIA RIVER FLOW AND DROUGHT SINCE 17501

ABSTRACT: A network of 32 drought sensitive tree‐ring chronologies is used to reconstruct mean water year flow on the Columbia River at The Dalles, Oregon, since 1750. The reconstruction explains 30 percent of the variability in mean water year (October to September) flow, with a large portion of unexplained variance caused by underestimates of the most severe low flow events. Residual statistics from the tree‐ring reconstruction, as well as an identically specified instrumental reconstruction, exhibit positive trends over time. This finding suggests that the relationship between drought and streamflow has changed over time, supporting results from hydrologic models, which suggest that changes in land cover over the 20th Century have had measurable impacts on runoff production. Low pass filtering the flow record suggests that persistent low flows during the 1840s were probably the most severe of the past 250 years, but that flows during the 1930s were nearly as extreme. The period from 1950 to 1987 is anomalous in the context of this record for having no notable multiyear drought events. A comparison of the flow reconstruction to paleorecords of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) support a strong 20th Century link between large scale circulation and streamflow, but suggests that this link is very weak prior to 1900.     

Assessing Ecological Integrity of Ozark Rivers to Determine Suitability for Protective Status

Preservation of extraordinary natural resources, protection of water quality, and restoration of impaired waters require a strategy to identify and protect least-disturbed streams and rivers. We applied two objective, quantitative methods to determine stream ecological integrity of headwater reaches of 10 Ozark rivers, 5 with Wild and Scenic River federal protective status. Thirty-four variables representing macroinvertebrate and fish assemblage characteristics, in-stream habitat, riparian vegetation, water quality, and watershed attributes were quantified for each river and analyzed using two multivariate approaches. The first approach, cluster and discriminant analyses, identified two groups of river with only one variable (% forested watershed) reliably distinguishing groups. Our second approach employed ordinal scaling to compare variables for each river to conceptually ideal conditions that were developed as a composite of optimal attributes among the 10 rivers. The composite distance of each river from ideal was then calculated using a unidimensional ranking technique. Two rivers without Wild and Scenic River designation ranked highest relative to ideal (highest ecological integrity), and two others, also without designation, ranked most distant from ideal (lowest ecological integrity). Fish density, number of intolerant fish species, and invertebrate density were influential biotic variables for scaling. Contributing physical variables included riparian forest cover, water nitrate concentration, water turbidity, percentage of forested watershed, percentage of private land ownership, and road density. These methods provide a framework for refinement and application in other regions to facilitate the process of establishing least-disturbed reference conditions and identifying rivers for protection and restoration.