AN APPLICATION OF COMPUTER GRAPHICS TO ANALYSIS OF EXTREMES1

ABSTRACT: A convenient method for the statistical analysis of hydrologic extremes is to use probability papers to fit selected theoretical distributions to extremal observations. Three commonly accepted statistical distributions of extreme hydrologic events are: the double exponential distribution, the bounded exponential distribution, and the Log Pearson Type III distribution. In most cases, probability papers are distribution specific. But, for the Log Pearson Type III distribution, the probability paper is characterized by a population-specific parameter, namely, the coefficient of skewness. It is not practicable to procure probability papers for all possible values of this parameter. Therefore, a computer program is developed to generate population-specific probability papers and to perform statistical analysis of the data using computer graphics. Probability papers covering return periods up to 1000 years or more are generated for the three distributions mentioned above. Using a plot routine, available extremal observations are plotted on selected probability papers and a linear regression analysis is used to fit a straight line to the data. Predictions of hydrologic extremes for higher recurrence intervals can be made by extrapolating the fitted straight lines.     

PARAMETRIC/NONPARAMETRIC MIXTURE DENSITY ESTIMATION WITH APPLICATION TO FLOOD-FREQUENCY ANALYSIS1

Much attention has been invested in the model choice problem for peak annual flows, in the context of flood frequency analysis. The authors would sidestep this dilemma through non-parametric density estimation methodology, but recognize that the standard nonparametric estimators preclude the use of prior information and related data, and furthermore have virtually no tail at all. Here we offer a remedy for these inadequacies by introducing an estimator which mixes parametric and nonparametric density estimates. We prove that our mixture rule is consistent. By this procedure, we do allow incorporation of prior information, experience, and regional data information, but nevertheless provide a safeguard against incorrect model choice.     

APPLICATION OF COMPUTER INTENSIVE STATISTICS TO PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY IN STREAMFLOW SYNTHESIS1

ABSTRACT: This paper introduces the application of Computer Intensive Statistics (CIS) to the evaluation of parameter uncertainty with specific reference to the parameters in the ARMA models used in the synthesis of streamflows. The CIS provides an empirically derived joint distribution for all parameters. Random values from this distribution can be drawn for application in the model for the generation of a specific synthetic sample. The CIS originally proposed by Efron and discussed herein is of general applicability in the evaluation of uncertainty in any statistic derived from a set of data. Some comments and limitations of the CIS are discussed in the concluding remarks.     

APPLICATION OF ROSGEN ANALYSIS TO THE NEW JERSEY PINE BARRENS1

ABSTRACT: Rosgen analysis, developed for assessing channel stability in streams from the western United States, is applied to the Oswego River watershed in the New Jersey Pine Barrens. The Rosgen method requires calibration to local conditions due to the impact of peat substrates on channel morphology. In particular, the presence of peat induces low width to depth ratios and greater channel confinement, reversing typical downstream morphologic trends observed in other rivers. Therefore peat is added to those substrates already evaluated by Rosgen. A consistent sequence of Rosgen stream types develops along the Oswego River and its tributaries created by spatially overlapping processes of water table emergence, peat development, and channel formation. This sequence delineates a “natural” transition of stream channel morphology downslope through the watershed. First, as the water table reaches the surface of dry sloughs, Sphagnum growth is stimulated and peat substrates result. These substrates have lower permeability than the underlying gravelly sands. Next, surface runoff, through braided pathways over the peat, eventually erodes mainly anastomosing channels into the peat. Finally, single‐thread channels develop in underlying gravelly sands further downslope. This downslope sequence, expressed as Rosgen stream types, begins generally with DA7 streams arising from dry sloughs. These pass to E7, C7 or DA5 stream types that in turn pass to B5c, C5 and C4 stream types. Departures from the “natural” stream type sequence occur along the course of the Oswego and its tributaries due to human activities such as the construction of dams, bridges and drainage ditches, stream bank erosion at streamside camping and picnic areas and the clear‐cutting of adjacent stands of Atlantic white cedar.     

THE APPLICATION OF RIDGE REGRESSION ANALYSIS TO A HYDROLOGIC TARGET-CONTROL MODEL1

ABSTRACT: Ridge regression analysis is used to investigate the stability of regression estimates over twenty-three years of data in a target-control model. Two target stations in the Wind River Range in Wyoming are studied using two sets of control variables. The predictive ability of ridge regression analysis is compared to that of ordinary regression analysis. The results of this study indicate improved stability of the estimates of ridge regression over ordinary regression. The predictive ability of the ridge regression estimates is as good or better than regression estimates.     

APPLICATION OF FAIRNESS CONSIDERATIONS TO PHOSPHORUS CONTROL POLICIES1

ABSTRACT: Alternate solutions to a contemporary water resource management problem are developed: 53 municipalities in Wisconsin's Lake Michigan watershed must reduce their phosphorus input to the lake by 85 percent of their influent load. Different definitions of fairness, based on legal and philosophical principles, form the foundation for 18 distinct policy options. The definitions of fairness include: (1) contractual agreement; (2) precedent; (3) the market system; (4) egalitarianism; and (5) equal treatment of equals and differential treatment of unequals, with equals defined in terms of need, worth, ability to pay, who receives the benefits, and the dictates of existing technology. Two alternatives are seen to dominate: (A) municipalities could form contractual relationships to meet the removal requirement as groups, and enjoy least cost operating schedules that save money for members of each group; and (B) whereas 20 of the municipalities collect 91 percent of all phosphorus collected in the watershed, a removal of 90 percent of their influent phosphorus alone ensures that the watershed meets the standard. Under this option, the other 33 municipalities are not required to remove phosphorus. Reasons for the dominance of the two policies are discussed in detail.     

STATISTICAL IDENTIFICATION OF STORAGE MODELS WITH APPLICATION TO STOCHASTIC HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes a method for the statistical identification of storage models for daily riverflow time series, together with numerical results. The first step in the identification process is to obtain a discrete time version of a storage model using a local linearization approach. It is shown that the discrete time version thus obtained may be utilized in the identification of the original storage model. A statistical method for the identification of daily rainfall time series models used in simulation is also presented. This identification procedure employs the maximum likelihood method for point process data analysis and is illustrated by means of numerical examples.     

LEAST COST SOLUTIONS TO THE PROBLEM OF EFFLUENT ABATEMENT IN URBAN SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: There is a significant misallocation of resources in the construction and operation of municipal sewage treatment systems in North America. Central to this misallocation is the inadequate evaluation of alternative treatment technologies, alternative distributions of responsibility for waste treatment, and alternative mechanisms for inducing compliance with treatment system requirements. Perverse incentives in the current institutional structure limit the scope of alternatives examined by decisionmakers. Determination of the least cost solution to the problem of urban effluent abatement requires mathematical modeling for the delineation of optimal treatment strategies on a system wide basis. The adoption of modern methods of systems analysis can identify significant opportunities for the reduction of economic waste in the treatment of municipal sewage.     

AN APPLICATION OF DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS TO PREDICT INDUSTRIAL/COMMERCIAL FLOOD PLAIN LOCATION1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes the techniques of factor and discriminant analyses to isolate and quantify the statistical differences between firms located on flood plains and those located off flood plains. The research effort described consists of three segments: data collection, isolation of potential classification variables, and the determination of the appropriate discriminant functions to classify a given fm as either on or off the flood plain. Significant classification functions are developed for both manufacturing and commercial establishments, whose arguments include dollar sales volume, total shipping cost, total employee cost, dollar valuations on the building and inventories, all on an annual basis, and the square footage of the site.     

MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF PARAMETERS RELATED TO LAKE ACIDIFICATION IN QUEBEC1

ABSTRACT Physico-chemical data from 234 lakes were collected during the spring and summer of 1980 by the Quebec Ministry of the Environment, the Quebec Ministry of Recreation, Hunting and Fishing and the Canadian Wildlife Service. A statistical method, based on the joint use of factorial correspondence analysis and cluster analysis, was applied to these data to obtain a general picture of the spatial variability of a number of physico-chemical parameters related to the sensitivity or acidification of lakewaters. This method was first applied to the entire Quebec territory, and showed that the part of Quebec lying on the Canadian shield is especially vulnerable to acidification. The method also showed that the southwestern portion of this area of Quebec was more substantially affected by acid fallout. A detailed study of spatial variability over the shield area revealed the existence of greater spatial heterogeneity. More precisely, it was possible to pinpoint zones which are highly vulnerable to acid precipitation and zones whose lakes show clear signs of acidification resulting from such precipitation. These two statistical analyses led to a first general diagnosis on lake acidification in Quebec. They contributed to the rationalization of data acquisition in Quebec by delimitating zones where network density needs to be increased.     

TWO-DIMENSIONAL DAM-BREAK FLOOD-FLOW ANALYSIS FOR ORANGE COUNTY RESERVOIR1

ABSTRACT: A two-dimensional dam-break model was used to predict the inundated area on an alluvial fan downslope from the Orange County Reservoir. The model is based upon a diffusion form of the continuity and momentum equations for long waves in shallow water, and the governing equation is solved by an explicit numerical scheme. In a comparison with a one-dimensional model, the two-dimensional model predicts a wider inundated area.     

COMPUTER BASED METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYSIS OF NONSTRUCTURAL FLOOD MANAGEMENT ALTERNATIVES1

ABSTRACT: The suggested methodology matches flooding risks to development classes. The matching process is accomplished on a mapping grid basis. Flooding risks include stage and velocity measures. Development classes are based on size and building material parameters for residential, commercial, industrial, and public structures. A computer program counts structures requiring predetermined nonstructural measures given the flooding variables, development classes, and desired effectiveness levels in question. A case study is presented to demonstrate data collection techniques, output, and the use of output in developing nonstructural mixes.     

A SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS OF THE CONSTRAINTS TO URBAN STREAM ENHANCEMENTS1

ABSTRACT: The environment surrounding urban streams imposes constraints upon stream enhancement projects. Constraints include bridges, culverts, highways, sewer and water lines, lack of easements, and other floodplain structures. The consequences of failure of these infrastructure constraints can be significant and should be considered in the design process. Fault tree analysis provides a systematic technique for analyzing the interactions of events that could lead to infrastructure failure. A case study of a stream in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, shows that fault tree analysis can effectively model the interactions between the stream system and the infrastructure constraints and predict the most likely modes of failure. In addition, the relative success of alternative designs and failure mitigation techniques can be assessed using this analysis tool, lending insight into the urban stream enhancement design process. The method could also provide justification in the design permitting process and input for risk assessment.     

APPLICATION OF ADVANCES IN FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: Flood frequency analyses are frequently being made using widely available computer programs. Serious errors can result from blind acceptance of such results. Visual interpretation of observed flood series can be used for evaluation on frequency paper with compatible scales. Such frequency papers are presented in the paper. In ephemeral streams, more infrequent floods may constitute a separate set from the more frequent floods because (a) runoff producing storms cover only a portion of the contributing area, (b) transmission losses in the normally dry streambed may reduce the peak flow, and (c) some runoff may be stored in stock water ponds which therefore leads to partial area runoff. The Cunnane plotting position used in this paper is superior to the more widely used Weibull equation, having a mathematically sound basis for locating observed floods on an assumed probability.     

USING SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS TO ASSIST PARAMETER ZONATION IN GROUND WATER FLOW MODEL1

ABSTRACT: For numerical modeling of ground water movement in a real aquifer system, the aquifer is usually divided into hydrogeologically defined zones, each with its own parameter values. The responses of the system, such as head or drawdown, are often available only in some of the zones. The estimated parameters of all the zones are based on the measured response in these limited zones. However, the estimates for some of the zones may be very uncertain, and these zones are therefore not justified by the data. In this paper, an approach is presented to understand which zone may produce uncertain parameter values and should be lumped with its neighbor. This approach is demonstrated using a regional numerical model for pumping test analysis in the Nottinghamshire aquifer, UK. A step-by-step process is used in identifying the aquifer zones and estimating their parameters based on the principle of using the smallest possible numbers of zones and parameters for adequate representation of the drawdown response. After the parameters of each zone are estimated, the sensitivity features of these parameters are examined. The results show that the parameters in one zone can be estimated properly by the drawdown in another zone only when there is significant sensitivity. For transmissivity, sensitivity between zones occurs when there is significant flow between them. For storativity, sufficient sensitivity can occur without large flows between the zones, provided that one zone causes significant drawdown in the other. This idea can be extended to the flow model for a large aquifer system. If the aquifer is divided in such a way that aquifer responses are not sensitive to the parameters in some of the zones, the parameters in those zones cannot be estimated properly and should be lumped into their neighboring zones. In this way, a simple but more reasonable model can be built.     

A COMPLEMENTARY TOOL TO WATER QUALITY INDEX: FUZZY CLUSTERING ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: A general methodology for fuzzy clustering analysis is developed and illustrated with a case study of water quality evaluation for Dianshan Lake, Shanghai, China. Fuzzy clustering analysis may be used whenever a composite classification of water quality incorporates multiple parameters. In such cases, the technique may be used as a complement or an alternative to comprehensive assessment. In fuzzy clustering analysis, the classification is determined by a fuzzy relation. After a fuzzy similarity matrix has been established and the fuzzy relation stabilized, a dynamic clustering chart can be developed. Given a suitable threshold, the appropriate classification is worked out. The methodology is relatively simple, and the results can be interpreted to provide valuable information to support decision making and to aid water quality management.     

SOME TECHNIQUES FOR USING FREQUENCY ANALYSIS AND REALTIME DATA TO INTERPRET FLOOD POTENTIAL DATA1

ABSTRACT: Flood potential data can be effectively interpreted if simple frequency analysis concepts are used to explain the significance of flood potential. Instead of simply presenting data as a quantitative amount or as a percentage of the average condition, predictions can be discussed in terms of their probabilities of exceedance, or return periods. Criteria are presented for evaluating the significance of various return periods. Frequency interpretations are applied to snow course data, peak flow forecasts, and streamflow volume forecasts in northern Utah to illustrate these concepts. In addition, access to realtime data allows tracking of snowmelt progression and identification of any deviations from the forecast flood potential situation. Several data elements, including snowpack, streamfiow volume and peak, and realtime data are jointly evaluated to assess potential hazard and probable risk.     

APPLICATION OF A SINGLE RESERVOIR OPERATION POLICY TO A RAIN WATER CISTERN SYSTEM1

The operation policy for a single reservoir is applied to a rain water cistern system because the functions of a cistern are similar to a simple single reservoir. Since the cistern is a closed system, water loss is negligible. In this study, a dynamic programming analysis has been made to study the effects of the probable weekly rainfall and the water storage in the cistern towards the water consumption policy. The result of this study indicates that the water consumption rate should be adjusted into a lower rate when the water storage in the cistern is low and/or when the expected probable weekly rainfall is low if the owner of the cistern does not want to risk the chance of an empty cistern. The demand for a reliable method for forecasting weekly rainfall is evident in this study.     

USE OF A DAM BREAK MODEL TO ASSESS FLOODING AT HADDAM NECK NUCLEAR POWER PLANT1

Because of their proximity to necessary supplies of cooling water, nuclear power plants are susceptible to riverine flooding. Greater flood hazards exist where plants are located downstream of large dams. The consequences of the Quabbin Reservoir dam failure on the Haddam Neck Nuclear Power Plant situated on the Connecticut River were investigated using a dam break flood routing model. Reasons for selecting a particular model are presented and the input assumptions for the modeling process are developed. Relevant information concerning the level of manpower involvement is presented. The findings of this analysis demonstrate that the plant is adequately protected from the consequences of the postulated flood event.     

A GAME-THEORETIC APPROACH TO ACID RAIN ABATEMENT: CONFLICT ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL LOAD ALLOCATION1

ABSTRACT: The detrimental impacts of acid rain have become widely publicized, but effective and equitable methods to mitigate the acid rain problem remain to be found. This paper focuses on conflicts involved in allocation of the total emission loads to be reduced to respective pollution sources of acid rain, and proposes a game-theory approach to the resolution of the conflict. With an example abstracted from a hypothetical case study in the United States of America and Canada, a systematic analysis is performed and policy implications of the results examined to assess the applicability of the proposed model.