Serum concentrations of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and a polybrominated biphenyl (PBB) in men from Greenland,Poland and Ukraine

Many brominated flame retardants (BFRs)—including polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs)—have been shown to persist in the environment, and some have been associated with adverse health effects. The aim of the present study was to quantify serum concentrations of common brominated flame retardants in Inuit men from across Greenland, and in men from Warsaw, Poland and Kharkiv, Ukraine. Serum was sampled between 2002 and 2004 from men 19 to 50 years of age. 299 samples were analyzed for BDE-28, 47, 99, 100, 153, 154 and 183 and the brominated biphenyl BB-153 using gas chromatography–high resolution mass spectrometry. BDE-47 and BDE-153 were detected in more than 95% of samples from all three populations. All other congeners, except BDE-154, were detected in more than 70% of samples from Greenland; lower detection frequencies were observed in Polish and Ukrainian samples. Concentrations of individual congeners were 2.7 to 15 fold higher in Greenlandic relative to Polish and Ukrainian men. Geometric mean concentrations of the sum of the most abundant PBDEs of the Penta-BDE commercial mixture (BDE-47, 99, 100, 153 and 154) were 6.1, 1.7 and 0.87 ng/g lipids in the Greenlandic, Polish and Ukrainian men, respectively. Furthermore, significant geographical differences in BFR concentrations were observed within Greenland. Principal component analysis revealed distinct clustering of samples by country of origin. The associations between ΣPBDEs and age were inconsistent, varying from no association in Greenlandic and Polish study populations to a U-shaped relationship in Ukrainians. We report BFR levels for three populations for which sparse biomonitoring data exists.     

Moving beyond the conceptual: specificity in regional climate change adaptation actions for biodiversity in South East Queensland,Australia

While many scientific assessments have been recommending general strategies for biodiversity conservation under climate change, translation of these recommendations into specific actions and practice has been limited. Focusing on two biomes, rainforest and wetlands in biodiverse South East Queensland, Australia, we demonstrate how general principles can be translated into specific actions for stakeholders and responsible agencies. We synthesize research that is contextualizing protection of refugia and habitat connectivity, establishing baseline data sets to detect change and developing strategic conservation planning scenarios to adjust reserve boundaries or situate new reserves. This has been achieved by coupling spatial information on biological assets (i.e. ecosystems and species) with future climate scenarios and process models to anticipate movement of critical habitats. Conservation planning software is also being used to prioritize investment to meet specific objectives. This approach is enabling us to identify at-risk biological assets, opportunities to ameliorate threats and obstacles to delivering regional adaptation actions. A larger total reserved area is needed, with proactive planning to capture areas further inland and along watercourses. Major obstacles include conflict between urbanization and priorities for habitat conservation and the need for greater levels of investment for monitoring programmes and to protect landward shifted wetlands on private land.     

Strategic environmental assessment application for sustainable transport-related air quality policies: a case study in Hanoi City,Vietnam

Recognition has grown among policy-makers that early in the decision-making process, there is a need for an environmental assessment of the effects of the policy, plan, and program (PPP) and their alternatives. Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) is widely recognized as a supporting tool that systematically integrates environmental aspects into strategic decision-making processes, thereby contributing to sustainable development. In this study, SEA was applied for an integrated assessment of environmental, social, and economic impacts of a wide range of scenarios for transport-related air quality policies to help decision-makers in identifying the most sustainable scenario with the purpose of reducing carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations from transport emissions in Hanoi City, Vietnam. In conducting SEA process, the urban air dispersion model MUAIR was used as a quantitative tool in prediction of CO concentrations. To evaluate the predicted impacts of scenarios, the SEA objectives concerning sustainability and the corresponding sustainable indicators were identified. Based on the likely significant predicted impacts on landscape, biodiversity, and health benefits, mitigation measures were proposed. These included planning in infrastructure development and implementation of public education campaign. The results of predicted and evaluated impacts of scenarios as well as proposed mitigation measures were taken into account for supporting sound decision-making that is consistent with the principles of sustainable development. Considering sustainable impacts of the scenarios, the SEA result clearly indicates that a combination of policy for public transport development and policy for installation of oxidation catalytic converter for motorcycles is the most sustainable scenario for reducing CO concentrations from transport emissions.     

Mainstreaming of climate extreme risk into fiscal and budgetary planning: application of stochastic debt and disaster fund analysis in Austria

While ageing-related costs are perceived as the major drivers of fiscal pressure in the EU, concerns over climate-related public expenditures have received comparatively little attention in securing the EU’s long-term fiscal sustainability. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios as bridging concept for linking the assessment of public cost of demography- and climate-related expenditures, this study proposes a climate risk mainstreaming methodology. We apply a stochastic debt model and assess the potential flood risk in Austria to the public debt and the national disaster fund. Our results indicate that public debt under no fiscal consolidation is estimated to increase from the current level of 84.5% relative to GDP in 2015 to 92.1% in 2030, with macroeconomic variability adding further risk to the country’s baseline public debt trajectory. The study finds that the estimated public contingent liability due to expected flood risk is small relative to the size of economy. The existing earmarked disaster risk reduction (DRR) funding will likely reduce the risk of frequent-and-low impact floods, yet the current budgetary arrangement may be insufficient to deal with rising risk of extreme floods in the future. This prompts the need for further discussions regarding potential reforms of the disaster fund. As many EU member states are in the early stages of designing climate change policy strategies, the proposed method can support the mainstreaming of climate-related concerns into longer-term fiscal and budgetary planning.

     

Accelerating urban sprawl in depopulating regions: a scenario analysis for the Elbe River Basin

The paper presents a method and results for the generation of future residential land use scenarios for the Elbe River Basin. The challenge of this study is to develop scenarios that consider two processes, accelerated urban sprawl in growth centres while peripheral regions are depopulating. The question is whether the demand for built-up areas can be reduced to achieve the objective of the German sustainability strategy. Current socioeconomic developments of the study area are described, and approaches to calculate residential land use demand are reviewed. Regionalised socioeconomic scenarios of the IPCC-SRES as well as households and housing forecasts are applied to calculate residential land demand for regions. The Land Use Scanner, a spatially explicit land use change model, is then used to allocate the demand on grid-cells within the spatial planning units. The results show a shift of residential developments from urban areas in general to agglomerations leading to a polarisation of developments. Residential land consumption can only be minimised to achieve the sustainable development goals if a strict land use policy with the implementation of higher building densities, activation of inner city quarters and application of effective planning instruments is followed.     

Making spatial development scenario for south of Bushehr province,Iran, based on strategic foresight

In recent years, the science of foresight has been entered into planning activities by urban and regional planners and this science has impacted on planning activities. This study discusses spatial development in the south of Bushehr province using the foresight approach. The general aim of this research is to compile scenarios for the development of the mentioned study area which comprises the southern part of Bushehr province including four counties of Dayyer, Jam, Kangan and Asaluyeh. The main reason for selecting this region is their direct impressibility by major changes in the country’s oil and gas industry. This research has extremely made use of the Delphi and cross-impact analysis methods to develop foresight scenarios. Using the Delphi method, 30 initial factors were identified in the economic, political-security, linkages, science and technology, manufacturing, natural, social, infrastructural and residential issues and then the cross-impact matrix was used to investigate the impact of factors on each other. In the next step, the ranking of direct and indirect factors was determined by Micmac software and on this basis, the final refining in the selection of drivers was done. In the final stage, axes of future scenarios were presented and then the future scenarios were drawn. Results of this research indicate that two main drivers namely Iran’s international relations and energy resources are the main axes of scenarios. These two drivers have more uncertainty and higher importance than other factors and the results in four scenarios showing the possibility of each situation’s occurrence.     

Scientific Basis and Technological Path of Regional Strategic Environmental Assessment

The study tries to set up a system to extract strategic environmental assessment (SEA) in exploitation of regional development based on the present situation of environmental assessment in China. First, the article summarizes the emphasis and deficiency of international academic community’s SEA research in the past 10 years. Based on this, the article puts forward the concept and evaluation principles of regional strategic environmental assessment (RSEA). Then the article expounds the necessity of carrying ...     

Scientific Basis and Technological Path of Regional Strategic Environmental Assessment

Abstract

The study tries to set up a system to extract strategic environmental assessment (SEA) in exploitation of regional development based on the present situation of environmental assessment in China. First, the article summarizes the emphasis and deficiency of international academic community’s SEA research in the past 10 years. Based on this, the article puts forward the concept and evaluation principles of regional strategic environmental assessment (RSEA). Then the article expounds the necessity of carrying out RSEA. After that, the article discusses in detail the process of RSEA, which includes defining evaluation scope, describing regional background, combing strategic behavior, designing development scenarios, predicting the pressure on environment, assessing environmental impact, screening alternatives and proposing regulation and control schemes.     

An integrated approach for studying the land suitability for ecological corridors through spatial multicriteria evaluations

Nature conservation is a very important issue in the sustainability assessments and spatial planning context. Knowledge of the suitability of the land to behave as an ecological corridor thus provides very significant input to land-use planning. Nature conservation and land-use planning are by their nature spatial problems. A family of methods that are rapidly gaining traction for planning and policymaking, named spatial multicriteria evaluations (SMCE), which are based on geographic information systems (GIS) and multicriteria analysis (MCA) coupling, can be an effective support for this area. The present paper proposes the integration of the GIS with a specific MCA technique, named Analytic Network Process to assess the ecological value of the land in the Piedmont Region (northern Italy). The results are obtained in the form of maps to be used as decision variables in planning. The study concludes with some lessons learned during the development of the SMCE and highlights that the applied methodology is an effective tool for decision makers in spatial planning and strategic assessments.     

基于CLUE-S模型的重庆市主城区土地利用情景模拟

以重庆市主城区为研究区,采用120m×120m栅格大小的数据为模拟基准,借助CLUE-S模型、情景分析法、SPSS软件及ArcGIS10.1软件建立了数量变化和空间分布变化相结合的不同情景下土地利用/覆盖变化的动态模拟模型,并对研究区不同情景下的土地利用/覆盖动态变化进行了模拟,模型综合考虑各种宏观驱动因子与土地利用变化之间的关系,较全面地考虑了多种土地利用/覆盖变化驱动因子,并利用SPSS软件进行相关性分析,确定了各因子的回归模型,提高了模拟结果的精度,通过对已有数据的模拟及精度分析,整体模拟精度达86%以上,在一定程度上反映了该模型在研究高分辨率土地利用/覆盖变化方面有很好的适应性,对土地利用/覆盖变化的复杂性研究和相关部门对土地布局、规划方面具有一定的参考价值。模拟结果表明:到2030年湿地、人工用地、林地将增加,耕地和其它用地减少,草地在不同的情景下均有稍微的增加,耕地和人工用地是变化最大的两种类型,随着时间的推移耕地和林地面积不断接近甚至持平,研究区西部及西南部变化比较明显。     

城市总体规划的战略环境评价研究 --以河北省丰南市黄各庄镇为例

开展城市总体规划的战略环境评价可以将环境问题纳入到规划中进行综合分析，使规划遵循可持续发展的原则，并根据可持续发展的目标，协调各部门发展的关系。本文基于开发的评价程序，结合黄各庄镇总体规划的战略环境评价。尝试在规划层次上对城镇总体规划的战略环境评价进行探讨。     

重庆市骨架公路网规划生态环境影响评价

战略环境评价作为一种促进可持续发展的重要工具,已经得到了广泛的关注。以重庆市骨架公路网规划生态环境影响评价为例,探讨一种基于规划路网与生态要素空间关系的评价方法。将评价要素分为两类,运用地理信息技术识别出规划路网对4种生态组分影响较大的地区和直接受规划路网影响的自然保护区,做出了空间分布图,并针对存在的问题给出了建议和对策,为合理设计和布设路网提供了依据。提出的基于空间位置关系的评价方法将会促进路网规划环境影响评价的开展。     

Scenarios and story lines: drivers of land use change in southern Mexico

The study presents three scenarios of land use and cover change (LUCC), the most important factor for environmental degradation in southern Mexico. We developed story lines and quantitative projections for regional scenarios based on historic LUCC processes, environmental policies, socioeconomic drivers, stakeholder consultations and official planning documents to gain a better understanding of drivers of LUCC, and quantitative scenarios were modeled with DINAMICA-EGO. Regionally specific interactions between social and natural systems are recognized, and detrimental policies and policy options for landscape conservation and management for sustainability are acknowledged in a base line, variant and alternative scenario. Incongruent policies and ineffective ground implementation of conservation actions were identified as the critical underlying drivers of deforestation and forest degradation that could lead to a severe reduction in natural forests, while the local socioeconomic situation stays precarious. The baseline scenario parts from an analysis of historic LUCC processes and shows the consequences of LUCC tendencies: 73% of temperate forests and 50% of tropical forests would get deforested until 2030. In the variant scenario, these tendencies are adjusted to planning goals extracted from official documents and recent changes in public policies. The alternative scenario further addresses policy options for fostering conservation and sustainable development, but because of the time lag of implementation, still 59% of temperate forests and 36% of tropical forest would get lost until 2030. Nevertheless, this represents a reduction of 13% of forest loss and 11% less pastureland due to the proposed measures of conservation, and sustainable management, including strategies for reforming agricultural systems, agricultural and forestry policies and trade, land tenure and livelihood risk management.     

Community-based scenario planning: a process for vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning to social–ecological change in coastal communities

The current and projected impacts of climate change make understanding the environmental and social vulnerability of coastal communities and the planning of adaptations important international goals and national policy initiatives. Yet, coastal communities are concurrently experiencing numerous other social, political, economic, demographic and environmental changes or stressors that also need to be considered and planned for simultaneously to maintain social and environmental sustainability. There are a number of methods and processes that have been used to study vulnerability and identify adaptive response strategies. This paper describes the stages, methods and results of a modified community-based scenario planning process that was used for vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning within the context of multiple interacting stressors in two coastal fishing communities in Thailand. The four stages of community-based scenario planning included: (1) identifying the problem and purpose of scenario planning; (2) exploring the system and types of change; (3) generating possible future scenarios; and (4) proposing and prioritizing adaptations. Results revealed local perspectives on social and environmental change, participant visions for their local community and the environment, and potential actions that will help communities to adapt to the changes that are occurring. Community-based scenario planning proved to have significant potential as an anticipatory action research process for incorporating multiple stressors into vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning. This paper reflects on the process and outcomes to provide insights and suggest changes for future applications of community-based scenario planning that will lead to more effective learning, innovation and action in communities and related social–ecological systems.     

Mixed land-use planning on the periphery of large Asian cities: the case of Nonthaburi Province, Thailand

Throughout Asia, rapid and uncontrolled urbanization has created serious environmental problems, and the development of sustainable urban–rural planning methods is of critical importance. To improve our understanding of mixed urban–rural land uses and provide future practical visions for regional planning, we conducted a case study of the urban fringe of the Bangkok Metropolitan Region, Thailand. After identifying local irrigation districts as the basic spatial unit for resource circulation, we quantified current material flows of organic wastes generated by households within each district. We then developed two different land-use scenarios for 2020: (1) a high-rise compact and (2) a low-story sprawl development scenario. These scenarios were compared in terms of efficiency of material flows and energy consumption. We found that, based on current infrastructure and technology, the latter scenario was more advantageous in terms of both material input and energy consumption than the former, thereby, identifying positive aspects of urban–rural land-use mixture. Based on these results, we propose that planners should focus on density control measures that take into account bioresource circulation within irrigation districts rather than simply drawing arbitrary land-use zoning lines. To this end, we suggest that the division between agricultural and urban planning departments must be bridged, and that research should take an interdisciplinary approach.     

区域可持续发展战略规划的理论与方法研究

实施区域可持续发展战略规划是落实科学发展观的需要。结合广东省江门市可持续战略规划的实践,对可持续发展规划的概念、内涵、基本框架以及技术流程进行探讨。基本结论是：区域可持续发展战略规划应以“环境社会系统”全新的视角,回答一个区域该如何化解“三大供需矛盾”,消除“三大危机”,提高区域可持续发展能力的问题;对区域环境社会系统这类开放型复杂巨系统进行可持续发展战略决策,需采用专家经验与计算机建模相结合、反复试错、多元互动的综合集成方法。     

基于CLUE-S模型的湿地公园情景规划——以南京长江新济洲国家湿地公园为例

基于计算机模型的湿地公园规划具有低成本、高效率、多情景等优点,可以为规划研究提供初步方案的评优和选择。将CLUE-S模型运用到湿地公园规划中,结合生态保护情景和旅游开发情景的设定,对新济洲湿地公园进行2020年景观格局模拟预测,最后从湿地鸟类穿越的最小累积阻力模型角度,对两种情景进行了比较分析,得出如下结论:(1)对CLUE-S模型在研究区的适用性进行验证,经过计算,模拟的精度检验指数Kappa值为0.763,表明CLUE-S模型用来做新济洲湿地公园景观格局变化的预测模型具有良好的可靠性;(2)土壤有机质含量是推动新济洲湿地公园景观变化的最重要驱动因子,其影响力度远远高于其他因子;(3)通过建立MCR模型可以发现,两种情景都具有各自的优缺点,对于生态保护情景需要注意的是拓宽湿地鸟类穿越廊道,减少最小累积阻力路线生态缓冲区内的人为干扰。而对于旅游开发情景来说,构建整体的生态串联性则显得尤为重要,需要在中部大阻力区域为湿地鸟类穿越开辟一条良好的保护通道。     

Levels and trends of persistent organic pollutants in ringed seals (Phoca hispida) from Central West Greenland, with particular focus on polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs)

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and the organochlorine compounds polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), DDTs, HCB, chlordane-related pesticides, HCH and toxaphene were analysed in blubber of juvenile ringed seals from Central West Greenland collected between 1982 and 2006. The longest time series could be established for PBDEs, partly based on archived material, while PCBs and DDTs covered a study period from 1994-2006. All organochlorines showed decreasing trends, most pronounced for DDT and HCH with an annual change of 8%. BDE-47 had a significantly increasing trend of 5% annually. It was the only BDE congener consistently above the detection limit, with annual median concentrations between 0.78 ng/g lw to 3.54 ng/g lw, i.e. about 10 times lower than values from East Greenland observed in a similar time trend study on ringed seal blubber [Rigét F, Vorkamp K, Dietz R, Rastogi SC. Temporal trend studies on polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in ringed seals from East Greenland. J Environ Monit 2006; 8: 1000-5]. A clear East>West difference was also found for PCBs and DDTs, but not for chlordanes, toxaphene or HCHs. Sigma 10-PCB, Sigma DDT and Sigma Chlordanes had similar annual median concentrations, typically exceeding SigmaPBDE by two orders of magnitude. The concentrations of HCH and toxaphene were in an intermediate group, with highest annual median concentrations of 135 ng/g lw and 20 ng/g lw, respectively. For most compound groups, the circumpolar trend previously established under for example the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme was confirmed, but apparently, more data are needed for chlordane-related compounds and toxaphene. Statistical analyses of the compound patterns in the ringed seal samples revealed significantly greater differences between seals from East and West than between different sampling years. Higher proportions of PCBs and DDTs and lower proportions of chlordanes and HCHs were found in seals from East Greenland than in those from West Greenland. Based on principal component analysis of individual congener and compounds, seals from East Greenland were found to contain higher proportions of the higher chlorinated CB congeners. Varying patterns between sampling locations may be caused by different exposure situations related to contaminant emissions and transport, but different feeding habits may also affect the contaminant composition.     

An integrated decision-support process for adaptation planning: climate change as impetus for scenario planning in an agricultural region of Canada

The amount of information required to adapt to climate change is vast: downscaled climate projections, information on environmental impact, sectoral performance, external drivers, regional strategies, policies and practices. It can be argued that most of this information is accessible at the community/regional level, and thus, the important challenges to adaptation are not information gaps, but constraints created by fragmented planning decisions and a sector-by-sector basis for financial and human resource allocations. To strategically address this through adaptation planning, we developed and tested a place-based decision-making framework that creates an integrated platform for considering regional and global sectoral drivers in Eastern Ontario, Canada. Using available socioeconomic and biophysical information from regional authorities, alternative future scenarios were used to describe the range of socioeconomic futures and their vulnerabilities to climate change. We found that: (1) integration of diverse sets of available data (rather than narrowly focused sectoral assessments) helped identify shared common objectives (maximizing the long-term environmental, economic, social well-being within the region), (2) a high degree of congruence existed as the key drivers of change, irrespective of sector, (3) exploring the future scenarios highlighted shared regional priorities and helped identify adaptation priorities requiring more integrated regional planning.     

海峡西岸经济区城市化进程中产业结构转变及其对资源消耗的影响

海峡西岸经济区的建设已进入国家战略决策层次,然而目前的研究成果多集中于宏观层次的定性描述与规划对策等方面,并没有对海峡西岸经济区内城市化发展特征,尤其是产业结构转变对资源消耗的影响开展定量研究。文中以海峡西岸经济区沿海8市为研究对象,分析各城市的城市化与经济发展特征,并在此基础上开展了产业结构转变与资源消耗对比研究,重点探讨了产业结构转变对当地城市化和资源消耗的影响,分析发现海峡西岸经济区城市间的城市化和经济发展水平不均衡,存在明显城际间差异性,各城市发展速度与产业调整、区域产业布局相关,明确了产业结构调整的多样化对资源环境的影响方式和程度也是多样化的,而产业结构多样变化又促使海峡西岸经济区各城市间经济交流与协作更加紧密。