江苏沿江地区农业产业化地域类型与发展研究

农业产业化经营是新形势下我国农业生产发展的必然趋势。20世纪90年代江苏沿江地区开始了农业产业化经营,现已产生了良好的效果,形成了加工企业带动型、流通企业牵引型、专业市场辐射型、新型合作经济组织依托型、主导产品推进型和外向型农业导入型等多种农业产业化地域类型,对促进江苏沿江地区农业增效、农民增收和农村经济发展产生了重要作用。实现江苏沿江地区农业产业化进一步发展的途径是：构筑农业创新体系,包括完善农村市场组织体制和农业运行机制、建立新型的农业投资机制、创新农业土地流转机制和转变行政、农业科研部门的服务职能;进一步调整与优化农村经济、农业和农产品结构,加快建设区域专门化农业生产基地;加强农业技术革新和农业科技示范园的建设,提高农业科技进步贡献率;建设适应现代市场竞争条件下的农业经营理念,实现传统农业向现代农业的跨越。     

Farming dynamics and social capital: A case study in the urban fringe of Mexico City

Urban development has important implications for farmland preservation and natural resource management in local peri-urban communities. Social science research on recent changes in rural landscape of mega-cities tends to be limited to case studies in Latin-American nations. This study analyses the socioecomic dynamics of farming land use and the interactions between multiple cultural variables and the environment. Fieldwork was carried out during the 2002–2003 period in rural livelihoods of the five high mountain towns of south Mexico City. Data obtained from participatory survey and ethnographic techniques were integrated to assess changes in rural landscape and resource management and how urbanization, deforestation and market oriented agricultural production result in different livelihoods within a similar urban fringe context. The dynamic of mixture of urban and rural landscapes is based on farm productivity and social capital factors. The study concludes that policy support for regional agricultural production systems through enhancing ecosystems services, environmental protection and economic development is needed for sustainable development of local communities. Readers should send their comments on this paper to BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue     

上海市休闲农业布局及影响因素分析

休闲农业是上海市都市现代农业规划的重要部分。采用上海市农业委员会公布的122个休闲农业景点及土地利用数据,综合运用GIS及计量地理方法,包括:最邻近指数、地理集中指数;土地利用多样化指数、洛伦兹曲线和基尼系数;灰色关联分析和OLS分析等,对上海市休闲农业布局及影响因素进行探究。结果表明:(1)上海市休闲农业景点最邻近指数为0.673 8,分布模式为凝聚型,景点分布地理集中指数为42.31,集中程度较高;(2)上海市休闲农业土地利用多样化指数分布在0.2~0.7之间,区县间休闲农业用地多样化程度差异较大,休闲农业土地利用基尼系数为0.558 2,休闲农业用地在区县间分布不均衡;(3)农业资源、交通条件对休闲农业布局有显著的积极影响,旅游业发展对休闲农业布局有显著的消极影响。     

Impact of peri-urban agriculture on runoff and soil erosion in the rapidly developing metropolitan area of Jakarta,Indonesia

Negative effects of land use change on water resources are among the most important environmental problems widely found in rapidly developing urban areas. Preserving green open spaces, including peri-urban agriculture, has been emphasized in urban planning to maintain or enhance the water catchment capacity of a landscape. However, the effect of agriculture on water-related landscape functions varies depending on the type, distribution, and management of farmland. This paper analyzes the dynamics of agricultural land and its effect on runoff and soil erosion, in order to support agricultural land management in Jabodetabek Metropolitan Area (JMA) with Indonesia’s capital Jakarta at its core. In 2012, agricultural land in JMA covered 53% of the total area, mostly located in the peri-urban zone. Peak Flow and Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) models were used to quantify the increase of runoff and soil erosion in the three most important water catchment areas in JMA caused by an expansion of dryland agriculture and mixed gardens from 1983 to 2012. Critical zones, which generate most of the runoff and soil erosion, were identified in each of the catchment areas. While reforestation of farmland in these zones will be only an option on steep slopes given the great food demands and rural livelihood, adoption of soil and water conservation practices can make a substantial contribution to reduce flood risks and conserve the productivity of agricultural land. A specific set of policy incentives is recommended considering agricultural land use types distribution and their impact on runoff and soil erosion.     

The economic,environmental and agricultural land use effects in the European Union of agricultural labour subsidies under the Common Agricultural Policy

In this study, we assessed the economic, environmental and agricultural land use impacts in the EU of a 20% reduction in the Pillar I budget of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union (EU) and spending the saved money via a subsidy on labour in primary agriculture. The impact of such a policy has been assessed with a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and a partial equilibrium (PE) model. It is concluded that reallocation of Pillar I budgets to a coupled agricultural labour subsidy increased employment in agriculture, especially in agricultural sectors and regions that are relatively labour intensive. Average employment in agriculture in the EU increased with 1.6% in the CGE model and with 0.6% in the PE model. Agricultural production and environmental emissions from agriculture increased as well. At the same time, prices of agricultural outputs decreased. Value added including subsidies increased for agricultural labour, but total value added in agriculture decreased. The latter was especially explained by decreased land prices and land-related value added. Measured in terms of equivalent variation, total welfare in the EU decreased. Welfare costs equalled about 1400 € per full-time work equivalent in agriculture extra. These results show that policy makers should weigh carefully the pros and cons of the direct and indirect overall economic, environmental and land use impacts of a subsidy on agricultural labour at the expense of the Pillar I budget of the EU CAP.

     

农村市场化对农户耕地流转的影响——以沪苏皖农户调查为例

随着市场经济体制的全面确立,农村市场化与农户土地利用行为的关系越发紧密。为揭示农村市场化对农户耕地流转行为的影响,围绕农产品销售市场和土地流转市场两方面,运用农户调查法和Heckman两阶段模型进行分析。结果显示：耕地流转费用和农产品销售价值的高低决定着农户土地预期及农业效益的实现程度,对耕地流转概率和流转面积产生了显著影响。同一要素对流入和流出的推拉作用往往是相反的。农户特征、耕地资源和地区差异等要素对耕地流转也产生了明显的影响,与流转动因相一致。由于目前农村土地流转市场和农产品市场尚不健全,积极发展现代农业,推进规模经营,规范土地流转,有助于改善农户福利,优化农业土地利用结构     

Vietnamese Uplands: Environmental and Socio-Economic Perspective of Forest Land Allocation and Deforestation Process

Vietnam, in the ongoing transition to market economies, has to cope with high rural poverty and a dramatic process of forest loss and environment degradation, particularly in the mountainous regions. The government considers rural poverty as the main cause of environment degradation, associated with slash-and-burn cultivation and to an unclear definition of property rights on forest land. In 1993, the government launched a Forest Land Allocation programme aiming to lease forest lands to individual households and, on this basis, to solve food security problems, halt the increasing environment degradation and preserve the remaining forests.To evaluate the results of this land reform policy, two upland pilot communes have been intensively monitored. The environmental and economic impacts of the forest land reform allocation in the two study areas are presented, after providing a background on the Vietnamese situation of mountain zones. On the basis of these findings, it is discussed as to whether the current forest land allocation process may actually promote local development and natural resources conservation, and under what conditions. Deforestation problems must be tackled also with new macroeconomic policies (e.g. credit programmes to support sustainable agriculture practices) and social policy (e.g. reduction of demographic pressure), together with the reform of the State institutions (e.g. State Forest Enterprises) involved in management of the forest areas.     

Towards adaptation of agriculture to climate change in the Mediterranean

This study links climate change impacts to the development of adaptation strategies for agriculture on the Mediterranean region. Climate change is expected to intensify the existing risks, particularly in regions with current water scarcity, and create new opportunities for improving land and water management. These risks and opportunities are characterised and interpreted across Mediterranean areas by analysing water scarcity pressures and potential impacts on crop productivity over the next decades. The need to respond to these risks and opportunities is addressed by evaluating an adaptive capacity index that represents the ability of Mediterranean agriculture to respond to climate change. We propose an adaptive capacity index with three major components that characterise the economic capacity, human and civic resources, and agricultural innovation. These results aim to assist stakeholders as they take up the adaptation challenge and develop measures to reduce the vulnerability of the sector to climate change.     

Development,local livelihoods,and vulnerabilities to global environmental change in the South American Dry Andes

Climate change will increasingly impact large areas of South America, affecting important natural resources and people’s livelihoods. These impacts will make rural people disproportionately more vulnerable, given their dependency on ecosystem services and their exposure to other stressors, such as new rules imposed by agribusiness and trends toward the commodification of natural resources. This paper focuses on the vulnerability of rural communities in Andean drylands of Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile, showing how different economic and political pathways lead to different levels of vulnerability. The paper begins with a brief discussion of the methodological and theoretical concept of vulnerability, which framed the research. Starting from the premise that global environmental change impacts are strongly linked to styles of development, the discussion explores the diverse institutional capital and governance schemes as well as different development styles in the case studies and their role in increasing or reducing local vulnerability to climate and water scarcity. Using a comparative perspective, the exposures and adaptive capacities of rural actors in three river basins are discussed, emphasizing situations that speak for the ways in which development styles counteract or magnify conditions of vulnerability. The analysis considers irrigated and non-irrigated agriculture, water property interests, different productive structures (viticulture, horticulture, etc.), producer typologies (large/small, export, etc.), and geographical location. Finally, the paper offers some insights about development style and adaptive capacities of rural people to overcome those vulnerabilities.     

农村税费改革对农业土地利用的影响:一个宏观评价

以取消农业税和加大农业补贴力度为主要特征的农村税费改革，是近年来中国农村地区的一次重大制度改革。为探讨其对农业土地利用的影响，在简要回顾农村税费改革主要历程的基础上，通过构建计量经济模型，从宏观层面分析验证了农村税费改革对农业土地利用规模和利用效率的具体影响。结果表明: 农村税费改革对农业土地利用的影响主要体现为农户行为响应产生的引致效应；无论是农业税的取消还是财政支农政策的加强都对农业土地利用规模的扩大产生了显著影响；而农村税费改革对农业土地利用效率的影响则并不明显。为此，中国政府今后仍需在农业补贴支出结构以及相关配套政策创新方面进一步优化     

中国农村经济制度变迁与农业周期性增长分析

农业增长除受到基本投入要素的影响,还受制度因素的影响。对于制度因素对农业增长的影响的研究,大多文献是从定性的角度分析。本文运用计量经济学和统计方法,通过对1978-2007年总体和不同阶段农业增长与农村土地制度、价格制度、财政制度和税费制度进行理论和实证分析,探讨制度变迁对农业生产总值增长的推动作用。文章通过分析发现,我国农业在要素投入并没有周期性变化的情况下,农业总产值增长率却呈现一定的周期性。为了探究农业周期性增长的原因,本文结合我国农村经济制度变迁的路径和农业总产值指数变化的特点,将改革开放以来我国农业增长分为三个阶段进行分析,同时根据Griliches生产函数构造计量分析模型。通过分析发现,正是由于不同阶段农村土地制度、价格制度、财政制度和税费制度的变迁,导致农业生产总值增长率周期性起伏。因此,制度变迁是改革开放后中国农业经济增长的内在决定性因素。     

我国农业与农村可持续发展的制度创新

我国农业与农村可持续发展的核心问题是农民收入问题。只有切实提高农民的收入水平。才能有效地增加农民购买力，从而增加农业生产资料的投入。进而保证粮食增产。我国农业与农村可持续发展存在的两个矛盾是小农经济与市场经济社会化的矛盾以及小农经济与科技化之间的矛盾。面临的两个分离是家庭经济与集体经济的分离以及传统供销合作社与农民利益的分离。增加农民收入的规模经济论与乡镇企业论的确有成功的典范．但是。对我国更多的农村地区来讲．不具有普遍意义。我国农业和农村可持续发展的关键有两个．一是符合区域特色的区域农业专业化．二是通过专业合作社的制度创新．将分散的家庭组织起来．以解决家庭小生产与大市场之间的巨大矛盾。     

Development of a land-use forecast tool for future water resources assessment: case study for the Mekong River 3S Sub-basins

Land-use change is one of the major factors that alter local and regional hydrology. For areas experiencing fast expansion of urban and agriculture areas, land-use changes often adversely affect stream flow and water resources at the local and watershed scale. The Sekong, Sesan, and Srepok (3S) Sub-basins are a part of the Lower Mekong River Basin and include land in Cambodia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Laos), and Viet Nam. The region is experiencing a dynamic land-use transition because of rapid changes in its economy, society, and environment. Major land-use changes include deforestation of native rain forest, expansion of agricultural and urban areas, and expansion of commercial plantation such as rubber trees. These land-use alterations have affected local and regional hydrologic processes, resulting in stream flow shortages during the dry season and flash flooding due to deforestation. In this research, deforestation in the 3S Sub-basins over the period 1993–1997 was analyzed using multi-logistic regression. The regression analysis indicated that density of agricultural cells within a 5-km radius from each forest cell and slope strongly affected the deforestation process. A land-use forecast model to simulate deforestation and urbanization sites was developed in GIS based on local land-use change trends. The model was applied to 2003 land use to forecast 2033 land use and future water demand, which was further compared with present stream flow measurements during the dry season at various places in the region. The entire approach from the land-use forecast to its impact assessment on stream flow could help local stakeholders understand watershed-wide future water resources risks and develop future water resources plans. With the 3S Sub-basins being used as a case study area, this article presents a land-use forecast tool; simulated 2033 land-use and water demand; and the estimation of the impact of the forecasted future water demand on the local stream flow.     

不同地貌类型区城镇扩展对土地利用景观格局的影响

基于RS和GIS的支持,以名山县为研究案例,分析与探讨西部经济以农业为主地区城镇扩展的时空特征和不同地貌类型下土地利用景观格局,以期为城镇规划及区域城镇可持续发展提供决策支持。结果显示：1975 ~ 1999 年土地利用类型在不同地貌区的分布格局变化显著。林地面积大幅减少,分布区域向海拔较高地区收缩。居民及建设用地在低丘区增长较快,城镇用地大幅增加,成为影响研究区景观格局的重要要素。农业生产活动向地势较高的区域扩展,中丘区成为农业生产的主要场所,水田和旱地成其主要土地利用方式。高丘区旱地分布面积占首位;园地在低山区分布面积有所增加。1999~2005 年基本维持1999年景观格局,居民及建设用地继续增长,尤其在低丘区表现明显;低丘和中丘区斑块总数减少,各景观要素平均斑块面积增加,形状指数和分维数降低;高丘、低山区水田、旱地减少,园地面积增加.     

Rainfall trends,land use change and adaptation in the Chaco salteño region of Argentina

Regional change under agricultural expansion in the Chaco of Argentina is determined by interactions of rainfall change, infrastructure development, socio-economic actions and values, and the social perceptions of change. Our study focused on adaptation in the socio-environmental system which is the key to understanding opportunities, uncertainties and risk in the context of historical change. Change in land use from extensive grazing through mixed farming and on to industrial-scale soybean production was made possible by a trend of increasing rainfall that reduced the risk of crop failure from drought since the 1970s. Rainfall change coincided with a period in which the Chaco forest was suffering extensive degradation from long-term extractive use. The degradation aided agricultural expansion since the degraded state of the ecosystem justified public policies of deforestation. In parallel to these resource-based processes, public policy changed in the late 70s and 80s toward favoring privatization of state land and exclusion of small producers. This permitted the land concentration needed for industrial-scale production. Technological innovation in both water and land resource management reinforced the process of concentration because small producers rarely have the financial or educational capital to develop or implement emerging technologies. One of the results of the intensification and expansion of agriculture is that soil surface sealing, waterlogging and flood risk are now effective at a landscape scale. To address these risks, private enterprise and government efforts must now come together toward innovative policies in integrated landscape management.     

Chinese Agricultural Policies in Thirty Years and Analysis on the Effects

In this article, the reforms of rural institutions and agricultural products' circulation system in China and the changes in national regulation on agricultural economy in the past thirty years were reviewed. The importance of rural land tenure reform and the pursuits of a rural market economy system to the sustained growth of agriculture for 30 years in China were recognized. Entering into the new millennium, under the New Countryside Initiative, a series of favorable policies, in the areas of rural finance, education, social security, and ecological restoration, were put into force to boost rural economy toward modernization. These policies resulted in the effect of abundant supply of agricultural products, improved rural livelihood, reduced farmer fiscal burden, rising farmer income, and increased capacity for multidimensional development in rural area. This article analyzed the issues of “San Nong” and stipulated that future policy will focus on supporting agriculture production, increasing investment in rural infrastructure, as well as enhancing coordination between urban and rural development goals.     

Analyzing coastal wetland change in the Yancheng National Nature Reserve,China

Coastal zones provide habitat cores and corridors that maintain the diversity of entire landscapes, and they can form the cornerstone elements of regional conservation strategies. Natural environmental driving factors and excessive anthropogenic activities play important roles in coastal wetland change. Many studies have used remote sensing images to map and assess coastal wetland change on local or regional scales. This paper aims to provide insight into coastal wetland change in the Yancheng National Nature Reserve (YNNR) using remote sensing technology and landscape metrics analysis. The results reveal that grass flat and reed areas have significantly decreased, whereas agriculture fields, aquaculture ponds and built-up areas have continuously increased from 1988 to 2006. The spatial pattern of the coastal landscape has become fragmented and heterogeneous under great pressure from rapid economic development and population growth. The wetland changes have important impacts on natural habitat of the red-crowned cranes. The results of this study provide basic information that is required for developing measures toward a sustainable management and conservation of the YNNR.     

平行岭谷区都市城郊耕地景观演变案例研究——以重庆市沙坪坝区为例

为研究都市城郊耕地景观的演变历程,总结耕地景观演变模式进而为未来研究区的农业资源合理利用和优化调控提供可借鉴性措施,以重庆市沙坪坝区为例,按其地貌特征从东至西划分为东部丘陵A区、岩溶低山B区、中部浅丘C区、西部岩溶低山D区4个区域,以1979年的MSS影像、1988、1995、2001、2007和2010年5个时期的TM影像为基本数据源,采用景观指数和定量表征指标,分析了沙坪坝区耕地景观空间格局演变、空间分布变化幅度及其种植结构引起的耕地景观功能变化。结果表明：A、B、C、D 4区耕地平均斑块面积在1979～2010年有了较大程度的减小,相应的斑块数目有了显著的增加,斑块密度呈现逐步增加的趋势,多样性指数和均匀度指数除了A区在逐步减小外,其他3区均呈增大趋势,耕地景观总体的破碎化程度增加了。2001年以前,除了A区快速减少外,各区耕地面积相对稳定;2001年为界限至今,A、C两区耕地演变属于快速消退型,B、D区则属于逐渐消退型。从2003年到2007年研究区种植作物类型及各区功能定位有所变化,研究区正处于从传统都市城郊农业向现代都市农业的转变中。研究区耕地景观从东部主城核心区到西部缙云山区,呈现跳跃突变式演变的特殊模式     

基于最小累积阻力模型的农村居民点用地生态适宜性评价——以都江堰市为例

农村居民点用地是乡村聚落景观的重要组成部分,其新建或重建过程从空间上来看是其与内部和周围环境之间相互竞争控制与覆盖的过程。在我国城市化加速推进的背景下,农村居民点用地却不降反升,其空间布局与扩张对自然生态环境的影响及反馈还考虑不足。借鉴景观生态格局的相关理论与方法,运用最小累积阻力模型,以都江堰市为例进行农村居民点用地的生态适宜性评价与分析。结果表明：（1）近十年来,研究区各土地生态适宜性分区空间分布相对集中,生态较适宜与高度适宜区域有一定程度的收缩,而较不适宜与不适宜区域则扩张明显,“一减一增”的鲜明对比表明人类活动对当地景观生态格局的干扰在明显增强;（2）不同时间段农村居民点用地的生态适宜性变化存在明显差异,在生态不适宜区,农村居民点的数量与面积始终保持了较高的增长势头,而中等适宜及以上等级区域的农村居民点数量与面积则经历了先增加后减少的变化趋势;（3）农村居民点用地的生态适宜性处于不断变化之中,2005~2010年和2010~2015年,分别有559.39和781.11 hm2的农村居民点生态适宜性等级发生了变化。研究结果对于加强当地重要生态景观单元的保护,协调人与土地、人与自然之间的矛盾,提高农村土地资源的利用效率和制定村庄建设发展规划等具有一定的实践指导意义。     

湖北省农地资源及其利用评价研究

农业发展问题是一个影响中国工业化、城市化和现代化建设的根本性问题。农以土为本，农地资源及其利用状况对于区域发展影响重大。文章以湖北省为例，从农地资源的自然属性、人口技术属性和经济属性等方面对瑚北省农地资源时综合质量进行评价。得出湖北省农地资源质量居中的基本结论；以农地利用分区为基础。对湖北省各分区农地资源的组合状况和综合质量进行了评价排名；最后又对湘北省农地资源利用状况进行评价，并根据各评价结论提出了湖北省合理利用农地资源。发展农业经济的基本策略。