Groundwater Flow Model Calibration of a Coastal Multilayer Aquifer System Based on Statistical Sensitivity Analysis

Environmental Modeling & Assessment - The identification of the hydrological processes taking place at coastal systems and the interaction between aquifers and the sea have been key features...     

Aerosol Scavenging: Model Application and Sensitivity Analysis in the Indian Context

Sulfate aerosols have been found to bethe major contributors to precipitation acidity. Thus,in view of the long-term ecological repercussions theyhave on aquatic ecosystems and their acidity-potential,the present analysis focuses on a case study applicationof the layer-averaged aerosol-scavenging model (Okita et al., 1996) for predicting values of the wet scavengingcoefficient and sulfate concentrations in precipitationsamples on the basis of the information available forsome selected Indian cities. Through sensitivityanalysis (Pandey et al., 1997) the scavengingcoefficient has been found to be very strongly dependenton precipitation intensity. Comparison of modelpredictions has been done with the measured values forDelhi, Mumbai, Calcutta and Chennai in India.     

Atrazine Transport Within a Coastal Zone in Southeastern Puerto Rico: a Sensitivity Analysis of an Agricultural Field Model and Riparian Zone Management Model

Agrichemical runoff from farmland may adversely impact coastal water quality. Two models, the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) and the Riparian Ecosystem Management Model (REMM), were used to evaluate the movement of the herbicide atrazine to the Jobos Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve from adjacent fields. The reserve is located on Puerto Rico’s southeast coast. Edge-of-field atrazine outputs simulated with the APEX were routed through a grass-forest buffer using the REMM. Atrazine DT₅₀ (half-life) values measured in both field and buffer soils indicated that accelerated degradation conditions had developed in the field soil due to repeated atrazine application. APEX simulations examined both the measured field and buffer soil atrazine DT₅₀ and the model’s default value. The use of the measured field soil atrazine degradation rate in the APEX resulted in 33 % lower atrazine transport from the field. REMM simulations indicated that the buffer system had the potential to reduce dissolved atrazine transport in surface runoff by 77 % during non-tropical storm events by increasing infiltration, slowing transport, and increasing time for pesticide degradation. During a large runoff event due to a tropical storm that occurred close to the time of an atrazine application, the REMM simulated only a 37 % reduction in atrazine transport. The results indicate that large storm events soon after herbicide application likely dominate herbicide transport to coastal waters in the region. These results agree with water quality measurements in the reserve. This study demonstrated the sensitivity of these models to variations in DT₅₀ values in evaluating atrazine fate and transport in the region and emphasizes that the use of measured DT₅₀ values can improve model accuracy.     

Validation of a Street Canyon Model in Two Cities

A street canyon model has been formulated based on work published by Hertel and Berkowicz. An outline is given of the theoretical approach used, followed by a modelling of nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide measurements from sites at Cromwell Road, Central London and Stratford Road, Birmingham. Modelled concentrations were compared with observed mixing ratios for both sites. At Cromwell Road, good agreement was achieved for one month but which was not reproduced as well for the other two months tested. There is uncertainty as to the effect of one of the side streets and whether the general flow is altered during periods of marked solar heating. Also emissions from vehicles may vary from those assumed. The interpretation of the Stratford Road site's results was less straightforward with complications concerning background pollutant levels and changes in emissions from interrupted traffic flow.     

Modelling the Effect of Weather Conditions on Cyanobacterial Bloom Outbreaks in Lake Dianchi: a Rough Decision-Adjusted Logistic Regression Model

Lake Dianchi, one of the main water sources for Kunming, China, experiences severe cyanobacterial blooms due to rapid urbanization and local industrial development. Scientific interest in the mechanisms that cause blooms has been increasing. An integrated model combining rough set theory with binary logistic regression was used to examine the correlation between weather conditions and cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Dianchi based on daily monitoring data. The binary logistic regression yielded quantitative correlations between cyanobacterial blooms and the assessed meteorological variables, including temperature, wind velocity, and wind direction. The rough decision process connected the weather conditions and cyanobacterial blooms, which were used to verify the binary regression model results. It was shown that by comparing the methods, the rough decision-adjusted binary logistic regression model significantly improved model accuracy. The integrated model of cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Dianchi may inform decision-makers at local water purification plants of the water quality in the lake and assist them in making more cost-effective decisions.     

Sensitivity of a Land Change Model to Pixel Resolution and Precision of the Independent Variable

It is important to know how the results from a land change model vary based on both the pixel resolution of the maps and the precision of the independent variables because subjective decisions or default values frequently determine these two factors. This paper presents an approach to measure the variation in model accuracy that is triggered by alteration of the pixel resolution and the precision of the independent variable, which are bins of distance to previously built area for our case study. We illustrate the principles with an application of the Geomod land change model contained in the Idrisi GIS, applied to simulate the gain of built land in central Massachusetts, USA. Results reveal four general principles: (1) change in pixel resolution using the majority-takes-all rule can influence quantity error, (2) change in bin width of an independent variable does not influence the quantity error, (3) resolution and bin width interact so that bin width does not have an effect on error when bin widths are smaller than the pixel resolution, and (4) researchers are wise to examine the implications of their subjective decisions by plotting clearly how the resolution and bin size influence the mathematical relationships that the model uses. We have found no universal, hard, and fast rules that dictate how to decide on an appropriate pixel resolution and bin width, but our method demonstrates how these decisions can be influential. These insights can offer scientists guidance in how to prepare data in an appropriate manner.     

Development,Calibration and Verification of a 1-D Flow Model for a Looped River Network

This paper presents the development, calibration and verification of a looped river network model. After introducing the governing equations, the established numerical model is calibrated employing measurements conducted on the Danube River and its two main tributaries in Serbia, the Sava and Tisa rivers. The calibration is done by altering the Strickler’s coefficient using three different approaches, assigning a constant value of the coefficient in a cross section, setting the coefficient as a function of discharge and, finally, connecting the Strickler’s coefficient to local depth. The verification is conducted by comparing the computed results, for all three of the considered methods, with measurements for the time interval from January 1st to December 31st of the year 2006. Careful examination of the obtained results helped to select the most suitable calibration method for future reference. The selected approach gave better agreement of computed and measured values, has a clear physical explanation and enables faster and easier calibration.     

Evaluating the Efficiency of a Uniform N-Input Tax under Different Policy Scenarios at Different Scales

Nitrate pollution from agriculture is an important environmental externality, caused by the excessive use of fertilizers. The internalization of this problem, via a tax on mineral nitrogen, could lead to a second best solution, reducing nitrate emissions. Several authors suggest that a reduction in agricultural support could produce similar results. In this paper, we examine the effects of different levels of a uniformly implemented nitrogen tax in France under two policy scenarios, corresponding to post Agenda 2000 and 2003 Luxembourg reforms of European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy, in order to reveal the synergies and conflicts between the tax and the policy scenarios in terms of nitrate emissions abatement. The analysis is performed at different geographical scales, from the national to the regional and is based on a bioeconomic approach that involves the coupling of the economic model AROPAj with the crop model STICS. Results show that the efficiency of the N-tax varies according to the geographical scale of the analysis and the type of farming. Furthermore, we prove that a uniform implementation may lead to perverse effects that should always be taken into account when introducing second-best instruments.     

Exploratory Analysis and a Stochastic Model for Humusdisintegration

Ulrich (1981) supposes in the hypothesis of humusdisintegrationthat the balance between polymerisation and breakdown of organicmaterial may be disturbed in chemically well buffered Europeanforest soils. This new aspect of aluminium toxicity may causenitrogen exceedance in forest ecosystems and subsequent seasonalnitrate output (Eichhorn and Hütterman, 1999).In a research program the substances in the seepage water aremonitored in a small woodland in central Germany. We explorethese multivariate data for examining possible influences on theprocess of humusdisintegration and its temporal evolution. As aresult, a regression model for carbon is developed, whichincludes covariables, i.e., other substances, as well as spatialand temporal terms describing systematic variability. Especiallyiron and aluminium turn out to be very influential in the model.So far our work is a basic step for monitoring the seepage waterdata by means of stochastic modelling.     

中山市臭氧污染来源解析与敏感性分析

利用数值天气预报模式和嵌套网格空气质量预报系统的来源解析模块（WRF NAQPMS/OSAM）对中山市2019年9月1次臭氧（O₃）污染过程进行了模拟分析,并对O₃来源进行了解析。结果表明,WRF-NAQPMS/OSAM模型能较好地模拟出该时段的O₃浓度。此次污染过程区域传输对中山市O₃浓度贡献显著,平均贡献比例为82.9%,本地平均贡献比例为17.1%,对中山市O₃贡献最大的2个来源分别是溶剂源和交通源,平均贡献占比分别为43.0%和42.7%。另外,工业源的贡献也不可忽略,平均贡献占比为11.0%。中山市O₃总体上处于挥发性有机物（VOCs）控制区,结合臭氧生成潜势（OFP）分析和源解析结果,溶剂源、交通源和工业源排放的甲苯、间/对二甲苯、邻二甲苯、1,2,3-三甲苯、正丁烷和异戊烷对O₃形成贡献显著,是中山市O₃污染治理应注意的重要前体物。建议中山市建立以VOCs控制为主导,VOCs和氮氧化物（NO_X）协同控制的长期O₃防控策略。     

Dispersion of Pollutants in Street Canyon under Traffic Induced Flow and Turbulence

A 3-D Eulerian-Lagrangian approach to moving vehicles is presented that takes into account the traffic induced flow rate and turbulence. The method is applied to pollutants dispersion in a street canyon. The approach is based on CFD calculations using Eulerian approach to the continuous phase and Lagrangian approach to the "discrete phase" of moving objects - vehicles. A commercial CFD code StarCD was used into which the Lagrangian model was integrated. As an example a street canyon is taken into consideration. It has the length of 50 m and the aspect ratio of 1.27. The speed of wind was assigned values of 4, 7 and 12 m/s at the altitude of 300 m. The total height of the domain is 115 m. In the study different traffic situations are considered, namely one-way and two-way traffic with different traffic rates per lane. The predictions show that different traffic situations affect pollutants dispersion in the street canyon and that there are also differences in the pollutants dispersion in case of one- and two-way traffic.     

典型硅藻生长相关因素的灰色关联度研究与模型

利用灰色关联分析法研究水动力条件(流速和紊流耗散率)、DTN、DTP、DO、pH值对硅藻生长的关联度。结果表明,由于水动力条件的加入,增强了DTN、DTP、pH值、DO与硅藻生长间的关联。水动力对硅藻生长的影响更多是间接影响,通过改变营养盐、DO及酸碱度与硅藻的相互作用来影响硅藻的生长。此外,实验得到基于流速或紊流耗散率的硅藻生长模型。     

多环芳烃的健康风险评价以及暴露参数的敏感性分析

在暴露情景假设和评估模型的确定下,有必要对污染场地的风险计算结果有影响的模型参数开展敏感性分析,以便在开展土壤健康风险评估工作时,提高评估的准确性和科学性,节约修复成本。以上海市某污染场地为例,对模型参数敏感性开展敏感性分析。贡献率结果显示,经口摄入土壤和皮肤接触土壤为场地表层污染土壤的主要致癌风险暴露途径。敏感性分析结果显示,致癌风险与体重呈反向变化,当体重参数减小时,暴露风险将向不利的方向移动。当体重参数在大范围减小时,敏感程度较高。致癌风险与暴露周期、暴露频率、每日摄入土壤量、暴露皮肤表面积、皮肤表面土壤粘附系数呈同向变化,当这些参数增大时,暴露风险将向不利的方向移动;其中暴露周期和暴露频率的敏感程度中等。上海市敏感用地下苯并(a)蒽、苯并(b)荧蒽、茚并(1,2,3-c,d)芘、苯并(a)芘、二苯并(a,h)蒽风险控制值分别为0.726、0.726、0.726、0.072 6、0.072 6 mg/kg。     

Quantification of a Primary Production Model Using Two Versions of the Spectral Distribution of the Phytoplankton Absorption Coefficient

In a recent publication, we discussed and presented a semi-empirical phytoplankton primary production model. In the present paper, our main purpose is to determine how the algorithms of a primary production model change when different values of specific absorption coefficient by phytoplankton are used in the model. A new version of our earlier model was quantified for this purpose. Differences between the previous and the new models are as follows: (a) the spectra of the specific absorption coefficient of light by phytoplankton differ in the new model from those used in the previous model, and (b) the quantification of the new model brings about a change in the parameters of the algorithm for the quantum yield of carbon fixation. We compared the results of primary production profiles obtained by the new model with those measured in situ and also with the values obtained by the previous model. Due to an adequate choice of quantification parameters, both the old and new models give rather close values of phytoplankton primary production. In the present study, the computational algorithms of both models have been automated. The resulting programs calculate the temporal–spatial variability of phytoplankton primary production, providing hourly values from morning to evening, daily sums, and monthly sums. The input of a table of initial parameters and selected depths produces rapid calculations of the model's results, which are given as vertical profiles of primary production and areal values.     

A Two-Sector Model of Economic Growth with Endogenous Technical Change and Pollution Abatement

Environmental Modeling & Assessment - We provide insights into the relationships between technological development, economic growth, and pollution accumulation using a two-sector model of...     

Biotic and Abiotic Changes Along the Recovery Gradient of Two Impounded Rivers with Different Impoundment Use

Changes in physicochemical conditions and lotic benthic macroinvertebrates along the recovery gradient of the impounded Colorado (USA) and Duratón (Spain) Rivers were examined to identify and compare major factors affecting the structure of the macrobenthic community. Although both impounded rivers were exposed to hypolimnial releases from dams, they exhibited different impoundment use; Granby Dam (Colorado River) is used for water storage whereas Burgomillodo Dam (Duratón River) is used for hydroelectric production. The major factor responsible for macroinvertebrate responses in the Colorado River appeared to be the anomalous temperature pattern caused by Granby Dam, with relatively cool temperatures during the summer and relatively warm temperatures during the winter. In contrast, the major factors responsible for macroinvertebrate responses in the Duratón River seemed to be short-term flow fluctuations and low oxygen concentrations caused by Burgomillodo Dam. Values of taxonomic richness and relative abundances of shredders (Colorado River) and scrapers (Duratón River) increased along the recovery gradient of the impounded rivers. In general, chironomids (Diptera) were tolerant to both types of impoundment use, whereas elmids (Coleoptera) and psychomyiids (Trichoptera) were very sensitive. Overall, this environmental monitoring study denotes that the downstream changes in the biotic and abiotic components of impounded rivers is a function of the particular use of impoundments.     

Development of Dissolved Oxygen Model for a Highly Variable Flow River: A Case Study of Ravi River in Pakistan

A framework for dissolved oxygen (DO) modeling of the Ravi River has been developed based on a combination of laboratory measurements and field and monitoring data. Both the classical Streeter-Phelps (CSP) and the modified Streeter-Phelps (MSP) models are used for DO simulations. The MSP model considers the carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand (CBOD) and nitrogenous biochemical oxygen demand (NBOD) separately, whereas the CSP model is evaluated considering only the CBOD and NBOD is incorporated in the overall BOD utilization rate. CBOD, NBOD and BOD rates have been determined through long-term BOD analysis of five main wastewater outfalls and two surface drains discharging into the Ravi River over a 98 km stretch. Analysis by Thomas Method manifests strong coefficient of determination “R²” between 0.72 and 0.98 for all the three types of BOD rates. Sensitivity analyses have also been carried out to find out a suitable reaeration rate formula for highly variable flows in the Ravi River. The CSP model results based on classical approach of considering only CBOD show significant difference between the model predictions and field measurements suggesting that NBOD needs to be incorporated for the model development. The dissolved oxygen values calculated using the MSP model and the CSP model based on overall BOD rate are in close agreement with field measurements and are thus suitable to model DO levels in the Ravi River.     

Spatial Distribution and Temporal Change of Carbon Storage in Timber Biomass of Two Different Forest Management Units

Forests make up large ecosystems and can play an important role in mitigating the emissions of CO₂, the most important greenhouse gas. However, they are sources of atmospheric carbon when they are disturbed by human or natural causes. Storage of carbon through expansion and adaptive management of forest ecosystems can assist in reducing carbon concentrations in atmosphere. This study proposes a methodology to produce spatially explicit estimates of the carbon storages (aboveground plus belowground) depending on land use/cover changes in two different forest ecosystems during various periods. Carbon storages for each forest ecosystem were projected according to inventory data, and carbon storages were mapped in a geographic information system (GIS). Results showed that total carbon stored in above and belowground of both forest ecosystems increased from one period to other because of especially increase of productive forest areas and decline of degraded forest areas as well as protection of spruce forests subject to insect attacks.     

新疆头屯河河道生态基流的分析研究

头屯河流域在主要河道上修建2处拦河水库及多处引水工程,虽然每年不同程度,周期性向拦河控制性工程以下河段下泄河道生态水量,但是尚未分析论证下泄的河道生态水量及下泄周期是否满足全年河道生态需求。尤其在枯水季节头屯河水库下游往往干涸断流,洪水季节易发污染事故,河道生态达不到预期保护效果。河道生态基流分析计算及提出头屯河流域生态保护的保障措施已经到了非解决不可的地步,河道生态基流分析计算成果作为流域水行政主管部门提出头屯河流域生态保护的保障措施的重要技术支撑,从水资源合理利用与节约,河道两库联合调度、合理利用,维护水生态、保障河道基流量等方面进行工程、调度及制度建设。