广东省台风暴潮灾害社会经济系统脆弱性分析——模糊数学方法

给出了台风暴潮灾害社会经济系统脆弱性的定义,应用模糊综合评价方法提供了计算台风暴潮灾害社会经济系统脆弱性的评估模式,进而探讨了脆弱性的空间分布状况,并将其应用于广东省台风暴潮灾害的脆弱性评估,所提方法可以较好地综合多种社会经济因素对台风暴潮灾害的影响.     

福建台风灾害风险分布的初步估计

建议了一个较简单的台风灾害风险评价模型，对福建台风灾害危险性、脆弱性和风险进行评价，应用Mapinfo7．0软件，编制了福建台风灾害风险分布图。结果表明：致灾因子危险性高值区主要分布在东部沿海，这一地区应该采取预留高风险区，与“台风灾害风险”共存的对策，提高台风预报准确性；承灾体脆弱性高值区集中分布在东部沿海的厦门、泉州、福州、莆田和漳州等地，还零散分布在三明、龙岩等地级市，这些地区应该采取生态安全条件下的土地利用结构调整、提高防御台风灾害能力和人口素质等对策，以降低承灾体脆弱性；风险高值区位于闽南沿海的漳州、长泰、龙海和厦门市，闽中的泉州东南沿海、莆田市和福州东南沿海，这些地区应该成为福建省防御台风灾害的重点区域。     

浙江沿海台风灾害区农房防灾避险体系探讨

台风灾害是浙江省的主要自然灾害之一。根据实地考察数据与分析资料,通过对沿海现有农房防灾能力分析,指出了造成部分农房避灾能力薄弱的原因,然后从农房防御强风能力建设、农房防灾减灾保障体系、农房规划建设管理体系、农村避灾安置场所建设、农房救助体系等方面探讨了构建农房防灾避险体系所要采取的应对措施。     

The politics of risk in the Philippines: comparing state and NGO perceptions of disaster management

It is now generally appreciated that what constitutes vulnerability to one person is not necessarily perceived as such by the next. Different actors 'see' disasters as different types of events and as a result they prepare for, manage and record them in very different ways. This paper explores what different perceptions of vulnerability mean in terms of the understanding and practices of two significant sets of actors and stakeholders involved in disaster preparedness and management in the Philippines: the state and NGOs. Approaches to disaster are not just a function of people's perceptions of disaster risk but also of their understanding of the prevailing social order and social relations. Despite a shared vocabulary—which increasingly presents disasters as processes rather than events, takes a proactive rather than a reactive approach, and favours the inclusion of stakeholders rather than solely relying on technocratic management—different realities continue to make for different responses.     

长三角地区台风灾害风险评估

中国长三角地区由于濒临西北太平洋,成为受台风灾害影响最严重的地区之一。结合灾害风险理论,将该地区16个地级市的140个县(包括一般县、县级市和市辖区)作为研究单元,对台风灾害风险进行了评估。选用台风大风和台风降雨等10个指标,采用主成分分析法计算了各县的台风致灾因子强度指数;选用各县2006年底人口密度、地区生产总值和第一产业产值占总产值的比例等3个指标,采用主成分分析法计算了其承灾体脆弱性指数;将致灾因子指数与脆弱性指数相乘,得到了各县的台风灾害风险指数,从而得到了风险等级图。该风险等级图揭示了台风灾害风险在长三角地区的等级分布状况,可以为长三角地区台风灾害防范策略的制定提供参考。     

Unpacking the post‐Haiyan disaster resettlement narratives of young Filipino women informal settlers in Tacloban City,Philippines

Post‐disaster resettlement narratives encapsulate the complex mobile–spatial processes that are embedded in a post‐disaster context. The existing literature on disaster relocation and resettlement accords primacy to the logistical, practical, structural, and physical dimensions of residential transitioning. Building on this knowledge, this study conducted a spatial narrative inquiry to generate a link to mobile–spatial realities interspersed in diverse temporal trajectories. It did so by tracking the embodied rhythms of people and objects evoked through the retelling of post‐disaster resettlement stories by 12 young Filipino women informal settlers. The key findings are organised in three spatial narratives: ‘house near the sea'; ‘there at the bunkhouse'; and ‘here in Ridgeview'. These narratives are anchored in the overarching dimensions that underpin Filipino informal settlers’ experiences of (not) moving in and out of disaster resettlement areas. Lastly, the findings are explained in the light of the theoretical, empirical, and practical implications of disaster resettlement specific to informal settlers.     

Adaptation to coastal hazards: the livelihood struggles of a fishing community in Kerala,India

This case study examines the coastal hazard adaptation strategies of a fishing community in a village in Kerala, India. It shows that formal adaptation strategies are highly techno‐centric, costly, and do not take into account the vulnerabilities of the fishing community. Instead, they have contributed to ecological, livelihood, and knowledge uncertainties. The adaptation strategies of the fishing community are a response to these uncertainties. However, they may not lead to the fishing community's recovery from its vulnerability contexts. This case study is primarily qualitative in nature. Data were collected through in‐depth interviews. Insights reveal that when actors with diverse values, interests, knowledge, and power evolve or design their respective adaptation strategies, the resulting interface often aggravates existing uncertainties associated with hazards. Furthermore, the study demonstrates that local discourses on coastal hazards are livelihood‐centric and socially constructed within the struggle of the fishing community to access resources and to acquire the right to development.     

Risk perception, risk management and vulnerability to landslides in the hill slopes in the city of La Paz, Bolivia. A preliminary statement

The article begins by describing the difficult living conditions of many people in the hill slopes (laderas) of La Paz, Bolivia, demonstrating that they are exposed to a combination of natural and social hazards. ¹ It shows that residents, community leaders and city planners tend to underestimate or deny risk, with important consequences for risk management, such as a failure to raise risk awareness. The article then proposes some hypotheses to explain risk perceptions in La Paz, discarding the usual single-approach interpretations and suggesting instead more nuanced theoretical explanations to account for why people build their homes in such hazardous environments.     

Measuring revealed and emergent vulnerabilities of coastal communities to tsunami in Sri Lanka

This paper presents the important findings of a study undertaken in two selected tsunami-affected coastal cities in Sri Lanka (Batticaloa and Galle) to measure the revealed and emergent vulnerability of coastal communities. International risk studies have failed to demonstrate the high vulnerability of coastal communities to tsunami in Sri Lanka. Therefore, indirect assessment tools to measure pre-event vulnerability have to be complemented by assessment tools that analyse revealed and emergent vulnerability in looking at the aftermath and impact patterns of a real scenario, as well as in examining the dynamics of disaster recovery in which different vulnerabilities can be identified. The paper first presents a conceptual framework for capturing vulnerability within a process-oriented approach linked to sustainable development. Next, it highlights selected indicators and methods to measure revealed and emergent vulnerability at the local level using the examples of Batticaloa and Galle. Finally, it discusses the usefulness and application of vulnerability indicators within the framework of reconstruction.     

Classification of residential areas according to physical vulnerability to natural hazards: a case study of Çanakkale,Turkey

The selection of new settlement areas and the construction of safe buildings, as well as rendering built‐up areas safe, are of great importance in mitigating the damage caused by natural disasters. Most cities in Turkey are unprepared for natural hazards. In this paper, Çanakkale, located in a first‐degree seismic zone and sprawled around the Sartçay Delta, is examined in terms of its physical vulnerability to natural hazards. Residential areas are analysed using GIS (geographic information system) and remote‐sensing technologies in relation to selected indicators. Residential areas of the city are divided into zones according to an evaluation of geological characteristics, the built‐up area's features, and urban infrastructure, and four risk zones are determined. The results of the analysis show that the areas of the city suitable for housing are very limited. In addition, the historical centre and the housing areas near Sartçay stream are shown to be most problematic in terms of natural disasters and sustainability.     

Disaster preparedness in a complex urban system: the case of Kathmandu Valley,Nepal

The city is a growing centre of humanitarian concern. Yet, aid agencies, governments and donors are only beginning to comprehend the scale and, importantly, the complexity of the humanitarian challenge in urban areas. Using the case study of the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, this paper examines the analytical utility of recent research on complex urban systems in strengthening scholarly understanding of urban disaster risk management, and outlines its operational relevance to disaster preparedness. Drawing on a literature review and 26 interviews with actors from across the Government of Nepal, the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement, non‐governmental organisations, United Nations agencies, and at‐risk communities, the study argues that complexity can be seen as a defining feature of urban systems and the risks that confront them. To manage risk in these systems effectively, preparedness efforts must be based on adaptive and agile approaches, incorporating the use of network analysis, partnerships, and new technologies.     

煤矿区地质环境灾害现状、发展趋势及对策研究…

随着煤炭资源的开发,占用土地,“三废”污染、地面变形与沉降、矿井突水等地质环境灾害问题日益突出,致使地质环境质量下降,影响着社会经济持续健康发展。本文用环境地质学的观点,论述了我国煤矿区地质环境灾害现状与发展趋势,并提出了防治地质环境灾害的对策与建议。     

‘Natural’ disaster? A retrospect into the causes of the late-2004 typhoon disaster in Eastern Luzon, Philippines

Between 14 November and 4 December 2004, four successive tropical depressions and typhoons lashed the Eastern coast of Luzon in the Philippines. Heavy rainfall triggered massive landslides and devastating flash floods, which brought tremendous damage and killed more than 1600 people. Immediately after the disaster, there was a media and political consensus to incrimate ‘extraordinary’ natural phenomena and widespread deforestation as responsible for the catastrophe. We argue that the tragedy that befell the municipalities of General Nakar, Infanta and Real, among other devastated areas, is enmeshed in a deeper tangle of causal factors that are political, socio-economic and demographic in nature. These factors include unmanaged population growth, difficult access to land and resources, corruption within the government, and power of the elite.     

加强综合灾害风险研究,提高迎对灾害风险能力——从第6届国际综合灾害风险管理论坛看我国的综合减灾

综述了第6届国际IIASA-DPRI综合灾害风险管理论坛的主要内容，并就中国综合灾害风险管理对策提出了具体的建议。本届论坛的主题是：风险与商业和产经界面临的挑战。论坛除主题报告外，共设置了16个分会场，就综合灾害风险信息共享平台（DRH）的建设、产经界如何迎对灾害风险、地震与洪水灾害风险的综合管理、灾害风险教育与减灾意识的养成、综合灾害风险管理的理论与方法论探讨，以及土耳其国家综合灾害风险管理的经验与教训等进行了深人的研讨。针对上述进展，从我国减灾工作现状，提出从三个方面加强我国综合减灾与灾害风险管理工作，即：各级政府在加强应急管理工作的同时，要高度重视从综合的角度完善减灾战略、规划和能力建设；全面改进产经界迎对灾害风险的能力，特别是非国有中小企业防御灾害风险的能力，以及大型国有企业灾害自保或参保机制的完善；加强综合灾害风险管理研究。     

台湾强震对赣粤闽交界及其沿海地区地震形势的影响

试图通过分析台湾地区与赣粤闽交界及其沿海地区的地质构造背景、动力环境、地震活动的相关性来探讨台湾强震对赣粤闽交界及其沿海地区地震形势的影响 ,从而分析赣粤闽交界及其沿海地区近期的地震趋势。