Modeling Dynamics of Habitat-Interior Bird Populations in Fragmented Landscapes

Abstract: A stochastic computer model was used to examine the effects of varying degrees of habitat fragmentation on the dynamics of a hypothetical population of forest-interior bid. The primary demographic parameter that influenced the population's dynamics was fecundity, which varied as a function of how far a birds territory was from an ecological edge. As our model landscape became more fragmented the proportion of forest habitat that was near edges increased geometrically, and the population's overall fecundity dropped as a result. The model demonstrates that impaired reproduction in a fragmented landscape is, by itself a sufficient disruption of the population's dynamics to generate population declines and shifts in distribution similar to those observed in the fragmented forests of southern Wisconsin. Without immigration of recruits from other regions where reproduction is better, habitat-interior populations in a severely fragmented landscape can become locally extinct.     

The Challenge and Opportunity of Recovering Wolf Populations

The gray wolf once inhabited a wide variety of habitats throughout most of the northern hemisphere north of 20°N latitude. Because the animal preyed on livestock and competed with humans for wild prey, it was extirpated from much of its range outside of wilderness areas. Environmental awareness in the late 1960s brought for the wolf legal protection, increased research, and favorable media coverage. The species has increased in both Europe and North America, is beginning to reoccupy semiwilderness and agricultural land, and is causing increased damage to livestock. Because of the wolf's high reproductive rate and long dispersal tendencies, the animal can recolonize many more areas. In most such areas control will be necessary, but the same public sentiments that promoted wolf recovery reject control. If wolf advocates could accept control by the public rather than by the government, wolves could live in far more places. Insistence on government control discourages some officials and government agencies from promoting recovery. The use of large- or small-scale zoning for wolf management may help resolve the issue. Public education is probably the most effective way to minimize the problem and maximize wolf recovery, but the effort must begin immediately.     

Conservation Genetics of the Endangered Isle Royale Gray Wolf

Abstract. The small group of wolves on Isle Royale has been studied for over three decades as a model of the relationship between large carnivores and their prey. During the last ten years the population declined from 50 individuals to as few as 12 individuals. The causes of this decline may be food shortages, disease, or reduced genetic variability. We address the issues of genetic variability and relationships of Isle Royale wolves using allozyme electrophoresis, mtDNA restriction-site analysis, and multilocus hypervariable minisatellite DNA analysis (genetic fingerprinting). Our results indicate that approximately 50% of the allozyme heterozygosity has been lost in the island population, a decline similar to that expected if no immigration had occurred from the mainland. The genetic fingerprinting data indicate that the seven sampled Isle Royale wolves are as similar as captive populations of siblings. Surprisingly, the Isle Royale wolves have an mDNA genotype that is very rare on the mainland, being found in only one of 144 mainland wolves ThFF suggests that the remaining Isle Royale wolves areprobably derived from a single female founder     

Modeling Opportunity Costs of Conservation in Transitional Landscapes

Abstract:  Conservation scientists recognize the urgency of incorporating opportunity costs into conservation planning. Despite this, applications to date have been limited, perhaps partly because of the difficulty in determining costs in regions with limited data on land prices and ownership. We present methods for estimating opportunity costs of land preservation in landscapes or ecoregions that are a changing mix of agriculture and natural habitat. Our approach derives from the literature on estimating land values as opportunity costs of alternate land uses and takes advantage of general availability of necessary data, even in relatively data-poor regions. The methods integrate probabilities of habitat conversion with region-wide estimates of economic benefits from agricultural land uses and estimate land values with a discount rate to convert annual values into net present values. We applied our method in a landscape undergoing agricultural conversion in Paraguay. Our model of opportunity costs predicted an independent data set of land values and was consistent with implicit discount rates of 15–25%. Model-generated land values were strongly correlated with actual land values even after correcting for the effect of property size and proportion of property that was forested. We used the model to produce a map of opportunity costs and to estimate the costs of conserving forest within two proposed corridors in the landscape. This method can be applied to conservation planning in situations where natural habitat is currently being converted to market-oriented land uses. Incorporating not only biological attributes but also socioeconomic data can help in the design of efficient networks of protected areas that represent biodiversity at minimum costs.     

Genetic Structure and Migration in Native and Reintroduced Rocky Mountain Wolf Populations

Gray wolf (Canis lupus) recovery in the Rocky Mountains of the U.S. is proceeding by both natural recolonization and managed reintroduction. We used DNA microsatellite analysis of wolves transplanted from Canada to two reintroduction sites in the U.S. to study population structure in native and reintroduced wolf populations. Gene flow due to migration between regions in Canada is substantial, and all three recovery populations in the U.S. had high genetic variation. The reintroduced founders were moderately genetically divergent from the naturally colonizing U.S. population. These findings corroborate that the reintroduction more than meets generally accepted genetic guidelines. Maintaining this variation, however, will depend on ample reproduction in the first few generations. In the long term genetic variation will best be retained if migration occurs among the recolonizing and the two transplanted populations. Evidence from field observation and genetic studies shows extensive dispersal by wolves, and we conclude that exchange among these groups due to natural dispersal is likely if public tolerance and legal protection are adequate outside lands designated for wolf recovery.     

A Comparison of Landscapes Occupied by Increasing and Decreasing Populations of Grassland Birds

Abstract:  For several decades, many grassland bird species have been declining in abundance throughout the Midwest and Great Plains regions of the United States, possibly due to loss of natural grassland habitat and increasing urbanization. I used 20 years of data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey to identify increasing, decreasing, and stable populations of 36 grassland-nesting bird species. I characterized the immediate landscape (circle with radius = 30 km) surrounding each population based on data from the National Resources Inventory. For each landscape, I calculated the proportion of eight different land-cover types: restored grassland, rangeland, cultivated cropland, pasture, noncultivated cropland, forest, urban land, and water. Using a null model, I compared landscape composition of increasing, decreasing, and stable populations. As predicted on the basis of the habitat preferences of grassland birds, increasing populations inhabited landscapes that contained significantly more restored grassland and rangeland but significantly less forest land and urban land than landscapes inhabited by decreasing populations. There was no significant difference in the proportion of cropland within the landscapes of increasing and decreasing populations, although cropland composed a large proportion (>30%) of many landscapes. In contrast, restored grassland typically composed a very small proportion (<3.5%) of total land cover, yet it was significantly more common in the landscapes of increasing than decreasing populations. These results suggest that grassland birds may benefit from government initiatives, such as the Conservation Reserve Program, that promote the restoration of grassland at a landscape scale.     

Conservation of Species in Dynamic Landscapes: Divergent Fates of Silene tatarica Populations in Riparian Habitats

Abstract:  In transient environments, where local extinctions occur as a result of destruction or deterioration of the local habitat, the long-term persistence of a species requires successful colonizations at new, suitable sites. This kind of habitat tracking should be associated with the asynchronous dynamics of local populations, and it can be especially important for the conservation of rare plant species in riparian habitats. We determined spatiotemporal variation in the demography of the perennial Silene tatarica (L.) Pers. in 15 populations (1998–2003) located in periodically disturbed riparian habitats. The habitats differed according to their morphology (flat shores, slopes) and the amount of bare ground (open, intermediate, closed) along a successional gradient. We used elasticity and life-table response analyses and stochastic simulations to study the variation in population demography. Finite population growth rate was higher in intermediate habitats than in open and closed habitats. In stochastic simulations population size increased in most cases, but four populations were projected to become extinct within 12–70 years. The viability of local populations depended most on the survival and growth of juvenile individuals and on the fecundity of large fertile individuals. On a regional scale, the persistence of this species will require a viable network of local populations as protection against local extinctions caused by natural disturbances and succession. Accordingly, the long-term persistence of riparian species may depend on habitat changes; thus, their conservation requires maintenance of natural disturbance dynamics. Along regulated rivers, management activities such as the creation of open habitats for new colonization should be implemented. Similarly, these activities can be rather general requirements for the conservation of endangered species dependent on transient habitats along successional gradients.     

Modeling Species' Distributions to Improve Conservation in Semiurban Landscapes: Koala Case Study

Abstract:  Models of species' distributions are commonly used to inform landscape and conservation planning. In urban and semiurban landscapes, the distributions of species are determined by a combination of natural habitat and anthropogenic impacts. Understanding the spatial influence of these two processes is crucial for making spatially explicit decisions about conservation actions. We present a logistic regression model for the distribution of koalas (  Phascolarctos cinereus ) in a semiurban landscape in eastern Australia that explicitly separates the effect of natural habitat quality and anthropogenic impacts on koala distributions. We achieved this by comparing the predicted distributions from the model with what the predicted distributions would have been if anthropogenic variables were at their mean values. Similar approaches have relied on making predictions assuming anthropogenic variables are zero, which will be unreliable if the training data set does not include anthropogenic variables close to zero. Our approach is novel because it can be applied to landscapes where anthropogenic variables are never close to zero. Our model showed that, averaged across the study area, natural habitat was the main determinant of koala presence. At a local scale, however, anthropogenic impacts could be more important, with consequent implications for conservation planning. We demonstrated that this modeling approach, combined with the visual presentation of predictions as a map, provides important information for making decisions on how different conservation actions should be spatially allocated. This method is particularly useful for areas where wildlife and human populations exist in close proximity.     

Mitochondrial DNA Variability of the Gray Wolf: Genetic Consequences of Population Decline and Habitat Fragmentation

The gray wolf is a large, highly mobile predator whose original geographic range included most of the Northern Hemisphere. High rates of genetic exchange probably characterized even distantly-separated populations in the past, but recent population declines and habitat fragmentation have isolated previously contiguous populations, especially in the Old World. We examine mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variability among twenty-six populations of wolves from throughout their geographic range. We find eighteen mtDNA genotypes in gray wolves, seven of these are derived from hybridization with coyotes, four are confined to the New World, six are confined to the Old World and one is shared by both areas. Genetic differentiation among wolf populations is significant but small in magnitude. In the Old World, most localities have a single unique genotype, whereas in the New World several genotypes occur at most localities and three of the five genotypes are nearly ubiquitous. The pattern of genetic differentiation in the gray wolf contrasts with that of another large, highly vagile canid, the coyote, in which genetic differentiation among populations is not significant even among widely separated localities. We suggest that the difference between these two species reflects the rapid, recent increase in coyote numbers and expansion of their geographic range, and the coincident decline in gray wolf populations. Apparent genetic differences among extant wolf populations may be a recent phenomenon reflecting population declines and habitat fragmentation rather than a long history of genetic isolation.     

狼蛛优势种群的12S rRNA对长期农药胁迫的分子响应

应用12SrRNA基因序列分析探讨了狼蛛优势种群对长期农药胁迫的分子响应机制.研究显示:(1)拟水狼蛛Piratasubpiraticus和拟环纹豹蛛Pardosapseudoannulata在长期农药胁迫下的12SrRNA基因第三结构域序列均发生了明显改变,即碱基组成由315bp和300bp分别减少为301bp和299bp,转换/颠换为17/5和11/10,核苷酸变异百分数达到0.095和0.083,同源性仅分别为85.8%和91.7%;(2)分子水平上表明拟水狼蛛较拟环纹豹蛛对农药的胁迫更为敏感;(3)供试两种狼蛛标本的基因组DNA的4个碱基对中以A和T的变异频率最高,属农药敏感型碱基对;(4)长期农药胁迫下供试两种狼蛛标本的12SrRNA基因片段的共同突变位点规律显示:192～228片段是其农药胁迫的敏感区.图2表3参9     

Modeling Problems in Conservation Genetics Using Captive Drosophila Populations: Consequences of Equalization of Family Sizes

Equalization of family sizes is recommended for use in captive breeding programs, as it is predicted to double effective population sizes, reduce inbreeding, and slow the loss of genetic variation. The effects of maintaining small captive populations with equalization of family sizes versus random choice of parents on levels of inbreeding genetic variation, reproductive fitness, and effective population sizes ( N _e) were evaluated in 10 lines of each treatment maintained with four pairs of parents per generation. The mean inbreeding coefficient ( F ) increased at a significantly slower rate with equalization than with random choice (means of 0.35 and 0.44 at generation 10). Average heterozygosities at generation 10, based on six polymorphic enzyme loci, were significantly higher with equalization (0.149) than with random choice (0.085), compared to the generation 0 level of 0.188. The competitive index measure of reproductive fitness at generation 11 was more than twice as high with equalization as with random choice, both being much lower than in the outbred base population. There was considerable variation among replicate lines within treatments in all the above measures and considerable overlap between lines from the two treatments. Estimates of N _e for equalization were greater than those for random choice, whether estimated from changes in average heterozygosities or from changes in F. Equalization of family sizes can be unequivocally recommended for use in the genetic management of captive populations.     

Invasion, Disturbance, and Competition: Modeling the Fate of Coastal Plant Populations

Abstract:  Wetland habitats are besieged by biotic and abiotic disturbances such as invasive species, hurricanes, habitat fragmentation, and salinization. Predicting how these factors will alter local population dynamics and community structure is a monumental challenge. By examining ecologically similar congeners, such as Iris hexagona and I. pseudacorus (which reproduce clonally and sexually and tolerate a wide range of environmental conditions), one can identify life-history traits that are most influential to population growth and viability. We combined empirical data and stage-structured matrix models to investigate the demographic responses of native ( I. hexagona ) and invasive ( I. pseudacorus ) plant populations to hurricanes and salinity stress in freshwater and brackish wetlands. In our models I. hexagona and I. pseudacorus responded differently to salinity stress, and species coexistence was rare. In 82% of computer simulations of freshwater marsh, invasive iris populations excluded the native species within 50 years, whereas native populations excluded the invasive species in 99% of the simulations in brackish marsh. The occurrence of hurricanes allowed the species to coexist, and species persistence was determined by the length of time it took the ecosystem to recover. Rapid recovery (2 years) favored the invasive species, whereas gradual recovery (30 years) favored the native species. Little is known about the effects of hurricanes on competitive interactions between native and invasive plant species in marsh ecosystems. Our models contribute new insight into the relationship between environmental disturbance and invasion and demonstrate how influential abiotic factors such as climate change will be in determining interspecific interactions.     

Predicting Bird Species Distributions in Reconstructed Landscapes

Abstract:  Landscape optimization for biodiversity requires prediction of species distributions under alternative revegetation scenarios. We used Bayesian model averaging with logistic regression to predict probabilities of occurrence for 61 species of birds within highly fragmented box–ironbark forests of central Victoria, Australia. We used topographic, edaphic, and climatic variables as predictors so that the models could be applied to areas where vegetation has been cleared but may be replanted. Models were evaluated with newly acquired, independent data collected in large blocks of remnant native vegetation. Successful predictions were obtained for 18 of 45 woodland species (40%). Model averaging produced more accurate predictions than "single best" models. Models were most successful for smaller-bodied species that probably depend on particular vegetation types. Predictions for larger, generalist species, and seasonal migrants were less successful, partly because of changes in species distributions between model building (1995–1997) and validation (2004–2005) surveys. We used validated models to project occurrence probabilities for individual species across a 12,000-km² region, assuming native vegetation was present. These predictions are intended to be used as inputs, along with landscape context and temporal dynamics, into optimization algorithms to prioritize revegetation. Longer-term data sets to accommodate temporal dynamics are needed to improve the predictive accuracy of models.     

Modeling the Persistence of Small Populations of Strongly Interdependent Species: Figs and Fig Wasps

Conservation problems are usually studied at the population or ecosystem levels. Formulating predictive theory for the domain in between has been difficult. Fig trees and their pollinating wasps, principally tropical groups of organisms, form pairs of obligate mutualists that provide unique opportunities for studying the influence of species interactions on the survival of small populations. Survival of each partner depends on that of the associated species. The pollinator population can be maintained only if figs are produced year-round. Because fig trees flower synchronously at the individual level, wasps have to locate a new individual host tree at each generation. We describe results of simulation models estimating the minimum number of trees required to maintain a wasp population using two levels of the criteria: (1) different probability of survival (50% and 99%) and (2) different time of survival (5 or 1000 years). We also examined how these different estimates are sensitive to differences in the seasonality of flowering period and in the length of the period of female receptivity in figs. Such estimates can be used to understand the potential effects of the reduction of fig population size via fragmentation. Unlike most studies on the effect of low population size on population viability, our paper focuses on maintenance of a biotic interaction, rather than on single-species dynamics. The biotic interaction on which we focus is important because figs in many tropical ecosystems may be keystone resources for frugivores that are in turn essential seed dispersal agents for other plants.