城市公共安全风险评估——以高层建筑火灾为例

为了提高城市公共安全管理水平,必须首先对城市涉及公共安全的风险进行客观和科学评估。简要介绍一种城市公共安全风险评估的方法,并以高层建筑火灾为例,详细地对风险事件进行风险识别、分析和评价,以及提出应对措施的过程。该方法可以作为我国城市公共安全风险管理的有效工具加以推广和使用。     

城市公共安全韧性评价及提升策略研究——以内蒙古包头市为例

为强化城市公共安全韧性提升其抗风险水平,立足于经济、社会、基础设施及生态环境4个维度,融合扰动力、适应力与恢复力核心特征,构建城市公共安全韧性评价指标体系;运用熵权法计算指标权重,结合正态云模型对城市公共安全韧性水平进行评价,并应用于内蒙古自治区包头市韧性评价中。结果表明：包头市公共安全综合韧性等级为较高韧性,在经济、基础设施与生态环境方面的韧性水平优于社会韧性。基于评价结果,提出以下提升策略：构建经济韧性架构、健全社会保障机制、夯实基础设施建设、强化生态环境考量。     

城市公共安全风险评估与控制对策研究:以武汉市为例

为明确城市公共安全关键影响因素,解决以往研究中存在的研究区域小、影响因素单一、评估方法主观性强、对策措施缺乏针对性等问题,基于风险评估基础理论和因子分析法,构建城市公共安全风险评估指标体系和风险评估模型,并以武汉市为例进行公共安全风险评估,提出相应的风险控制对策。结果表明:构建的“灾害严重性-风险应对能力”风险评估指标体系对因子分析法具有较好的适用性,风险评估模型能够有效判别城市公共安全的关键影响因素;影响武汉市公共安全的4大关键影响因子为城市发展水平和基础设施、事故灾害、环境影响和地质灾害及其防治;2010—2017年间武汉市公共安全水平总体呈上升趋势,风险应对能力的提升对武汉市公共安全水平提升贡献较大。     

韧性视角下的城市区域洪涝承灾能力评估方法研究

为了研究城市区域洪涝承灾能力及其空间分布特征,使应对洪涝灾害防范和治理措施更加具有针对性、科学性,从韧性视角着手,选取了26个评价指标,对城市区域洪涝灾害进行评估研究。利用熵权法和TOPSIS法构建洪涝灾害承灾能力评价模型,利用MATLAB软件对各城区的承灾能力进行计算。结果表明:江夏区和黄陂区洪涝承灾能力强,江汉区和汉阳区洪涝承灾能力弱,同时一个城区整体洪涝承灾能力与抵抗力具有较强的相关性。研究结果可为城市区域的洪涝灾害的防控和治理提供科学依据,具有很高的现实意义。     

应急通讯车多目标调度研究——以成都邛崃市洪涝灾后通讯恢复事件为例

为了提高应急通讯车在洪涝灾害发生后的救援调度效率和受灾群众对救援完成时间的感知满意度,考虑应急通讯车在不同受灾点的作业时间差异、转移产生的准备时间及受灾群众感知满意度差异,来制定合理的调度方案.首先,从资源环境、任务约束和优化目标等方面描述应急通讯车的优化调度问题;其次,基于前景理论中收益与风险的关系及公平理论中人们的比较心理,确定了贴合实际情况的动态参考点,结合前景理论的价值函数,建立了本文的满意度函数,由此刻画不同受灾点内受灾群众的感知满意度,建立0-1非线性多目标整数规划模型;最后,通过遗传算法求解模型,并进行帕累托最优调度分析,得到优化目标之间的平衡.结果表明,所建立的多目标优化调度模型有效且公平,能够为应急管理部门制定满足各方利益的应急救援方案提供参考.     

城市的韧性度评价研究——以德阳市为例

为了评价研究中小城市的城市韧性度,以德阳市为例,运用模糊综合决策法,对德阳市的城市韧性度进行评价研究.从经济水平、领导力、基础设施、生态环境4个维度出发,构建了适用于德阳市的评价指标体系,运用层次分析法计算了各个指标的权重,在此基础上,得出了各个指标的相对韧性度,运用模糊综合决策法,评价分析了德阳市的城市韧性度.结果表...     

珠三角地区城市雨洪过程模拟与计算——以佛山市南海区北村水系为例

受城市化快速发展及其内在的土地利用、水系调整、高架桥建设等复杂因素影响,城市降雨、入渗、蒸发、径流及其污染物输移过程已发生很大改变,由此导致的城市内涝与水环境污染等问题已经成为制约当地经济社会可持续发展的重要因素.基于城市雨洪径流传输过程模拟模型SWMM(Storm Water Management Model)对广东省佛山市南海区北村水系雨洪过程进行模拟计算,分析得到不同降雨和土地利用条件下北村水系雨洪可利用量及径流过程、地表污染物入河量及输移过程规律.结果表明,随降雨频率的减小,北村水系主要控制点的径流总量增大,面源污染物总量增大,通过增加城市绿地面积可以有效地减少洪水总量以及消减洪峰流量.     

城市生活垃圾管理和处理研究——以漳州市为例

针对漳州市城市生活垃圾管理和处理现状,分析存在的问题,提出改进建议.漳州市生活垃圾管理和处理模式适合在我国推广,我国城市生活垃圾管理和处理急需解决的关键问题是分类收集.     

新时期城市安全风险防控实践探析——以成都为例

随着我国加快从"乡村社会"迈向"城市社会",城市安全问题成为了新时期亟待解答的"国家命题",分析了城市化与城市风险相关问题,提出了适合成都的安全风险预防指标体系,并以"技术防控"开发建设城市安全监测预警系统,以"标准防控"推动企业和公共领域安全管理标准化,以"群众防控"依托安全社区为载体,构建基层社区公共安全体系,为我国城市安全风险防控体系建设提供了宝贵经验和有益启示。     

CFD simulation study on gas dispersion for risk assessment: A case study of sour gas well blowout

Compared with general blowout, the process of sour gas well blowout is more complex. The exchange of gas state is affected by many factors, and the consequences of the accident are serious. It is difficult to find out the rule of gas dispersion and predict the distribution of toxic gas. Fluent code was used to model the sour gas dispersion in the atmosphere after well blowout. The “12.23” sour gas well blowout, which was happened in Kai County, Chongqing, Sichuan, China, was the research background. The blowout accident model was set up to simulate the real process. Models were built based on real topography. Wind speed and atmospheric stability of the day which the accident happened were set as the operation conditions, and the composition, injection rate, and temperature of the gas at the actual time were set as the boundary conditions of numerical simulation. The analysis of gas dispersion based on simulation results conducted from two aspects, height and dispersion time. A comparison of field data with simulation data demonstrated that CFD technology can be an effective aid to describe the process of sour gas dispersion and can also predict the tendency of gas dispersion and gas distribution. Furthermore, it can provide guidance on design emergency response zone (ERZ).     

防洪预报调度方式下水库下游防洪风险分析--以葠窝水库为例

水库实施的防洪预报调度方式是解决我国防洪和兴利之间矛盾的一条有效途径,其对水库上下游的防洪风险率的大小是决定其能否实施的关键.目前对此缺少一种定量计算方法.本文在分析防洪预报调度方式风险指标的前提下,根据水库洪水径流深与产流预报误差的分布规律,采用数值分析方法计算水库实施防洪预报调度方式时,相对于常规调度方式,产流预报误差对水库下游防洪风险率,并以实例论述了具体分析思路和计算过程.     

境外项目中方雇员(含华人)遭袭案例分析与规避

美国石油学会和美国石油炼制者协会提出了石油石化行业社会安全脆弱性评估方法,其中可能性的参考点主要包袭击动机、袭击方式、袭击时间、袭击地点和遭袭者身份5个要素,该风险评估模式仅对可能性的1～5级进行了简要的定性描述.对2001年1月至2014年4月间新闻媒体公开报道的122起境外中方人员(含华人)遭袭的事故案例进行了定量分析(袭击动机:抢劫钱财39.34％、地缘政治19.67％、宗教或文化冲突18.03％、社区诉求13.12％及其他动机9.84％.袭击方式:持枪袭击32.79％、实施暴力20.49％、绑架劫持19.67％、炸弹袭击12.30％及其他方式14.75％.袭击时间:凌晨18.03％、上午12.30％、中午4.10％、下午8.20％、夜间27.05％及不明时间30.32％.遭袭地点:人群集聚区24.59％、华人商业区22.15％、工地22.15％、路途13.13％、豪华酒店3.28％、郊区2.47％及其他地区12.23％.遭袭者身份:中方雇员41.80％、华人店主/个体35.24％、中国留学生8.20％、中方游客5.74％及其他人员9.02％),将此统计结果的百分比与可能性构成要素各项最高分级数值5相乘,得出以122起遭袭案例为样本的风险评估可能性的更为准确的数值.还结合该122起事故案例的统计分析结果详细介绍了中国石油天然气集团公司社会安全管理体系的关键性要素.     

A new methodology for risk evaluation taking into account the whole life cycle (LCRA): Validation with case study

The life cycle of a product is generally characterized by the main following stages: raw materials acquisition, manufacturing, processing and formulation, distribution and transportation, use, re-use, maintenance, recycle and waste management. As regards the process, the following stages are usually distinguished: raw materials acquisition, process manufacture, use and dismantling at the end of the lifetime. Considering the life cycle concept in a risk analysis approach requires the adjustment of the classic risk analysis methodology. In order to build up this new methodology called LCRA (Life Cycle Risk Assessment), we relied on the LCA (Life Cycle Assessment) methodology, which allows the assessment of the potential environmental impacts throughout the life cycle of a system. Once these adjustments made, this new methodology LCRA is explained and applied to two energy pathways (or life cycles): hydrogen (produced from the biomass) and gasoline pathways.     

水资源生态足迹消费账户及其计算模型——以西安市为例

依据目前对水资源功能和水资源生态足迹理论的认识,把水污染消费纳入水资源消费账户,建立水资源生态足迹框架体系及其计算模型.应用模型对西安市2001-2007年的水资源生态足迹进行计算,并采用规模、结构和比较方法对计算结果进行分析.结果表明,西安市对废水污染较酸雨污染的治理力度大;废水污染、农业用水和酸雨污染在水资源生态足迹中所占比例较大,是各年的主要贡献者,而对水资源生态足迹整体下降量贡献最多的是废水污染(0.548 9 hm~2/人)和农业用水(0.031 9 hm~2/人);除个别年份外,水产品消费所占比例整体呈增大态势,生活用水、生产用水和其他用水所占比例变化较小.针对分析结果,提出了支持西安市可持续发展的水资源对策,包括调整水资源管理重点,拓宽和加大废水治理范围和深度,严格执行节能减排政策以及提高工农业用水效率等.     

柱形连通容器内预混气体爆炸过程的火焰传播模拟

为研究连通容器内气体爆炸规律,采用Fluent(经典流体动力学软件)对柱形连通容器内预混气体爆炸过程进行模拟,模拟了不同点火位置和火焰传播方向条件下连通容器内火焰传播过程和压力变化,并分析了连通容器内不同时刻的速度场.结果表明:火焰面在传播过程中并非完全对称,当火焰到达传爆容器后,湍流燃烧剧烈,火焰不规则变形显著;端面点火后在传爆容器内产生的压力峰值和压力波动比中心点火时更大;当起爆容器为大容器时,传爆容器内气体预压缩程度更大,压力峰值更高.     

Digital Screening for Blood Alcohol Concentration (BAC) in a Southern Nigeria City

OBJECTIVE: Blood alcohol concentration (BAC) was digitally determined for transport operators, passengers, and pedestrians in a southern Nigeria city. METHODS: The subjects were screened with a digital breathalyzer, Alco Scan CA 2000, for BAC along major accident-prone highways, resting spots, and hospitals. The mouthpieces were complemented with disposable straws for rapid and hygienic screening of the subjects. RESULTS: Based on convenience sampling, a significant proportion of Nigerians has a BAC level above 0.06 on accident-prone highways (44.60%), at resting spots (54.50%), and in hospitals (47.80%). CONCLUSION: This research confirms that digital breathalyzer BAC levels are reliable and empirical means for determining incidents of alcohol-impaired driving.     

基于生态服务功能的土地利用结构分析——以福州市为例

为了区域的土地可持续利用和人地关系的和谐,以福州市为例,利用1993、2004和2009年土地利用变更调查数据,在Shannon信息熵公式的基础上,提出以土地生态系统服务功能价值指标代替面积指标计算土地利用结构信息熵,对土地利用功能结构进行分析.结果表明:福州市在1993、2004和2009年土地生态服务功能结构信息熵逐渐降低;各县市(区)的土地生态服务功能结构信息熵表现出明显的空间异质性特征,其中近郊区属于信息熵高值区,而中心区和远郊区属于信息熵中值区;各土地利用类型的生态服务空间结构信息熵也有较明显的差异,且随时间变化规律不明显;Pearson相关分析表明,林地、水域、耕地和建设用地是影响福州市土地生态系统服务功能结构信息熵的主要因素.研究表明,提出的土地生态服务功能结构信息熵不但能反映土地利用结构特征,而且能够反映土地的生态服务功能特征.     

Assessing the effectiveness of integrating ergonomics and sustainability: a case study of a Mexican maquiladora

In 2015, the United Nations defined sustainable industrialization as one of 17 sustainable development goals. In this article, an analysis is performed to assess the opportunities for ergonomics to contribute toward sustainability in the manufacturing industry. To that effect, a case study was carried out in a maquiladora of electronic components in the northwestern region of Mexico. The investigation was developed in four stages: (a) diagnosis; (b) planning; (c) implementations; (d) verification of results. Barriers found during each stage are presented. Finally, a discussion of the obtained results is provided, and areas of opportunity for programs or actions to prevent health risks are identified.     

A case study on the influence of a magnetic shielding retrofit on the static magnetic field present in a Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) suite

PurposeThe purpose of this research is to assess whether the practice of retro-fitting passive magnetic shielding to Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) suites is effective in retaining the 0.5 mT footprint of the static magnetic field to within its designed position.MethodologyThe research methodology involved identification of an MRI installation where passive magnetic shielding was to be fitted to an installation already in operational use. Site based physical measurements of the magnetic flux density of the static field were then taken both ante and post installation of the shielding, so as to be able to determine its effectiveness.FindingsThe results identified areas in the retrofitted magnetic shielding where, as a result of its design, hot spots in excess of 0.5 mT occurred.Practical implicationsThis research highlights design, construction and safety issues that the designer could, if he had this prior knowledge, have eliminated at source.ValueAt the planning stage of a new MRI suite, designers could use the information contained in this research as part of their design risk management process. This research serves to demonstrate the importance of eliminating any possible future need to install retrofitted passive magnetic shielding to an original MRI suite design. It also shows the need for designers to identify the location of any hot spots in the shielding installation where the magnetic flux density may exceed 0.5 mT and become a potential hazard to those individuals fitted with heart pacemakers or other electronic body implants.