Disposal of obsolete pesticides,the case of Ethiopia

Ethiopia has accumulated obsolete pesticide stocks since pesticides were first imported in the 1960s due to prolonged storage of pesticides, inappropriate storage conditions because of poor storage facilities, the lack of trained staff and lack of national legislation for pesticide registration and monitoring system of pesticide use in the country. The first pesticide inventory conducted in 1995 led by FAO in collaboration with the government of Ethiopia had identified about 426 tonnes of obsolete pesticides mainly on state-owned agricultural farms and held by the Ministry of Health. However, these stocks have increased to over 1500 tonnes (including 200 active ingredients) as found in a detailed inventory conducted in 1999. The stocks included organochlorines (258.3 tonnes), organophosphates (155.4 tonnes), carbamates (58.5 tonnes), coumarines (14.9 tonnes), inorganics (30.2 tonnes), others (257.2 tonnes), mixed pesticides (70.4 tonnes) and unknown pesticides (307.1 tonnes) including both liquid and solid state formulations. The obsolete organochlorine pesticides stocks were mostly pesticides such as chlordane, DDT, dieldrin and lindane that are banned or restricted in most countries. The highest amount of a single active ingredient found was the organophosphate insecticide pirimiphos methyl (172.1 tonnes). All these stocks were disposed of in the first phase of disposal in Finland (during 2000–2003) by the hazardous waste management company Ekokem at a cost of about US$ 4.44 million. Another 1000 tonnes of obsolete pesticides have been identified and are currently being eliminated in a second disposal phase at a total cost of US$ 8 135 500. Along with the disposal process, a number of activities are being implemented to prevent future pesticides accumulation. These activities include the development and enforcement of pesticide policy, the implementation of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) and Integrated Vector Management (IVM), capacity building in terms of providing professional trainings, creating awareness among stakeholders on the environmental and human health hazard posed by obsolete pesticides as well as other actions to prevent their accumulation and enforcement of national legislations and policies related to pesticides use. However, pesticide use in the country is increasing. For instance, 12 years of pesticides import data (1996–2007) by the Ministry of Agriculture shows that 2973 tonnes of pesticides were imported between 1996–1998, 3670 tonnes between 1999–2001, 5079 tonnes between 2002–2004 and 8302 tonnes between 2005–2007. Moreover, 6 years of insecticide import data (1996/97–2001/02) by the Ministry of Health shows that around 919 tonnes of insecticides were imported between 1996/97–1997/98, 812 tonnes between 1998/99–1999/00 and 970 tonnes between 2000/01–2001/02 for malaria and other vector borne diseases control.     

Design considerations for environmental sustainability in high density development: a case study of Hong Kong

This study has indicated that there is close relationship between development density and environmental quality; therefore, it is necessary to decide the form of development carefully beforehand. The form of development is shaped either by new development or urban renewal which is a major tactic nowadays adopted by the Hong Kong Government to improve the living condition of the citizens and the quality of the built environment. This study is limited to urban renewal and aims to find out the major urban design considerations for sustaining the environment. Through a questionnaire survey carried out in Hong Kong, the opinions of architects, planners, property development managers, and local citizens were sought and evaluated, and critical design factors for enhancing environmental sustainability of urban renewal projects are highlighted. The results derived from factor analysis indicated that certain design considerations should be incorporated for sustaining the urban environment. “Land Use Planning”, “Quality of Life”, “Conservation & Preservation”, “Integrated Design”, “Provision of Welfare Facilities”, and “Conservation of Existing Properties” were believed to be the significant underlying factors for achieving environmental sustainability of local urban renewal projects. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

SUSTAINABILITY AT THE LOCAL LEVEL: MANAGEMENT TOOLS AND MUNICIPAL TAX INCENTIVE MODEL

The implementation of sustainable development may seem a simple concept when written on paper. However to carry-out long term actions put forward by the Agenda 21 (AG21) at the local level represents one of the main challenges as municipal governments in general do not have the capacity to effectively implement the process. Regional environmental assessment (REA) has shown to be effective in supporting decision-making not only to correct environmental problems due to past unsustainable social-economic developments but also help local governments to implement sustainable actions. However this requires long-term investments of AG21 plans and projects. The allocation of regular and consistent financial resources is one of the main ingredients for the sustainable development process. But traditional plans and projects financed by national and/or international funds may not be sustainable in the long-term because they become dependent on external funding. Research demonstrate that innovative economic instruments such as ecotaxes represent a feasible alternative to sponsor local sustainability because taxes are collected permanently by the government and could be invested in continuous actions. Ecotaxes experiences have provided important reference to structure a municipal incentive model (MIM) to sponsor AG21’s environmental plans and projects on a long-term (permanent) basis. However sustainable development cannot be solely through economic investments. A comprehensive municipal environmental management scheme (MEMS) has been established to support the incentive model. The scheme seeks not only to improve local institutional framework but also incentive continuous participation of local stakeholders at all levels of society. Participatory events and the provision of incentives (educational and financial) are key to motivate society to protect the environment and support actively the sustainable development process as emphasised in the RIO-92 Conference.     

Ten years of international scientific cooperation in fisheries,aquaculture and coastal zones: some preliminary lessons

The paper examines preliminary experiences with international scientific cooperation in fisheries, aquaculture and coastal zone issues through 90 projects in successive European Research Framework Programmes (FP4–FP6: 1994–2006). FPs had increasingly ambitious objectives in response to international commitments, such as the Convention on Biological Diversity, the Millennium Development Goals, the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation and dialogue with partner regions. Sustainable aquatic food production in the context of respect for ecosystems was a central concern. Engagement with different social actors and attention to investment in education, people and institutions enabled uptake of research results in education, innovation and some impact. The emphasis in several recent projects on more integrated analyses and knowledge products in the public domain is an encouraging response to the growing crisis of aquatic resource systems. It is suggested that significant up-scaling will be required. This might be done through institutional internalisation and better translation of research results into policy developments supportive of transitions towards sustainable production systems and ecosystem rehabilitation. Capacity building to use research in novel ways and other enabling mechanisms need to be put in place to increase societal and environmental benefits of the research.

Swedish nutrient reduction policies: an evaluation of cost-effectiveness

Since more than 30 years, the Swedish government as well as other governments in the drainage basin strives toward a reduction in nutrient loads to Baltic Sea coastal waters in order to combat eutrophication of the sea. In spite of this, the cost-effectiveness of actual environmental policy for meeting Baltic Sea nutrient targets has not been evaluated by national or international bodies in the region. The aim of this paper is to evaluate Swedish national nitrogen and phosphorus policies with regard to cost-effectiveness. This is done through a comparison of nutrient measures implemented through environmental policy decisions 1995–2005 with cost-effective policies for present national as well as Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) targets. The cost-effective measures are calculated using an empirical programming model including all countries adjacent to the Baltic Sea. Calculations show that measures that jointly reduce nitrogen and phosphorus are hardly applied in actual policy and that reductions in the agricultural sector are much smaller than is cost-effective. Data show, surprisingly, that considerable reductions have been carried out in the Bothnian Sea catchment in spite of there being no nutrient reduction target for this catchment. Results suggest also that the Swedish costs for meeting the new and geographically more restricted targets under the BSAP can be reduced if a policy with less restrictions on the location of phosphorus abatement is applied, compared to what is now suggested.     

An economic theory of reuse

An economic model of reuse is developed to analyse the effect of reuse activity on the amount of waste in the economy and the welfare of consumers. The paper adapts the theory of durable goods and second-hand markets. There is only one type of good, a durable good, which last two periods. A durable good is called ‘new’ in the first period and ‘used’ in the second period. Following Kim (Int Econ J 3:53–63, 1989), it is assumed that consumers differ in valuing the service rate of used goods. Their valuations are represented by a parameter θ, with a higher θ denoting consumers with a greater willingness to pay. In this study, high-θ consumers are referred to as reuse-friendly consumers. The new durable good is supplied in a competitive market. After the purchaser has used the good for one period, (s)he can sell it, keep it or throw it away. If a consumer decides to enter the second-hand market, (s)he has to pay a transaction cost. In equilibrium, the price of used goods will be determined endogenously by a second-hand market; it depends on the value of transaction costs. Thus, whether the second-hand market exists or not also depends on the value of transaction costs. It is shown that the amount of durable goods that is wasted is minimal when a second-hand market exists. When a second-hand market does not exist, increase in reuse-friendly consumers leads to decrease in the amount of waste. In the case of the second-hand market, when many consumers begin to reuse, the welfare of consumers who do not buy used goods will be improved.     

Development of an educational model for sustainability science: challenges in the Mind–Skills–Knowledge education at Ibaraki University

Modern society confronts multiple sustainability challenges, including population growth, resources limitations, and a deteriorating environment. As a response, sustainability science education plays a major role in developing human capacity to manage these issues. This paper proposes the concept of “sustainability science education across Mind–Skills–Knowledge” as well as the competencies to be acquired and its pedagogy. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of such an educational system and its method of implementation using the example of the Graduate Program on Sustainability Science (GPSS), which was started at Ibaraki University in 2009.     

Framing environmental indicators: moving from causal chains to causal networks

In recent years, there has been a boom in environmental assessment reports utilizing environmental indicators. Most of these publications are based on the casual chain frameworks (e.g., Pressure–State–Response (PSR), Driving force–State–Response (DSR), and Driving force–Pressure–State–Impact–Response (DPSIR)). These frameworks have made an important contribution by emphasising the importance of causality. However, the reliance on simple uni-directional chains is at the same time not very conducive to a good understanding of the complexity of the processes behind environmental indicators. This limits the usefulness of these frameworks for environmental (impact) assessments. In this paper we propose an enhanced DPSIR (eDPSIR) framework for environmental indicators that takes inter-relations of indicators into account by relying on the use of causal networks rather than causal chains. It will be shown how the concept of causal networks can increase insight into the inter-relation of environmental issues and associated indicators, can facilitate the identification of key indicators for particular kinds of questions, and can provide a useful first step to the establishment of dose–response functions. Working with causal networks can contribute to more appropriate environmental policies and better management decisions.     

Sustainable management of transboundary river basins: a line of reasoning

This paper identifies a line of reasoning based on a number of concepts and tools to facilitate river basin management, which have been applied in a case study. For long-term sustainable river basin management, a balance is needed between the human use of the river and its basin, the ecological functioning of the river and receiving waters, and the river's capacity to supply goods and services. To find such a balance a framework is needed that illustrates and clarifies possible trade-offs between economic use and environmental supply by integrating scientific information on cause–effect chains on a catchment scale. A number of concepts and tools are proposed as a basis for this framework. The tools are: (1) indicators that describe the complex interactions and processes in rivers; (2) a suite of linked models that predict the economic, environmental and ecological effect of management measures; (3) an evaluation framework to rank different management alternatives on the basis of three objectives: economic efficiency, spatial equity in costs and benefits and environmental quality of the river and receiving lakes. The concept of environmental quality defines the potential of the river environment (i.e. natural capital) to contribute to human welfare. The concept of environmental functions is used to identify societal interest in natural capital. The concept and tools have been applied in a case study involving the evaluation of four management strategies on nutrient abatement in the Rhine basin. The result of the case study is that economic efficiency is in conflict with spatial equity and environmental quality. Spatial equity is in agreement with environmental quality. Electronic Publication     

Soil management practices for sustainable agro-ecosystems

A doubling of the global food demand projected for the next 50 years poses a huge challenge for the sustainability of both food production and global and local environments. Today’s agricultural technologies may be increasing productivity to meet world food demand, but they may also be threatening agricultural ecosystems. For the global environment, agricultural systems provide both sources and sinks of greenhouse gases (GHGs), which include carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxide (N₂O). This paper addresses the importance of soil organic carbon (SOC) for agro-ecosystems and GHG uptake and emission in agriculture, especially SOC changes associated with soil management. Soil management strategies have great potential to contribute to carbon sequestration, since the carbon sink capacity of the world’s agricultural and degraded soil is 50–66% of the historic carbon loss of 42–72 Pg (1 Pg=10¹⁵ g), although the actual carbon storage in cultivated soil may be smaller if climate changes lead to increasing mineralization. The importance of SOC in agricultural soil is, however, not controversial, as SOC helps to sustain soil fertility and conserve soil and water quality, and organic carbon compounds play a variety of roles in the nutrient, water, and biological cycles. No-tillage practices, cover crop management, and manure application are recommended to enhance SOC storage and to contribute to sustainable food production, which also improves soil quality. SOC sequestration could be increased at the expense of increasing the amount of non-CO₂ GHG emissions; however, soil testing, synchronized fertilization techniques, and optimum water control for flooding paddy fields, among other things, can reduce these emissions. Since increasing SOC may also be able to mitigate some local environmental problems, it will be necessary to have integrated soil management practices that are compatible with increasing SOM management and controlling soil residual nutrients. Cover crops would be a critical tool for sustainable soil management because they can scavenge soil residual nitrogen and their ecological functions can be utilized to establish an optimal nitrogen cycle. In addition to developing soil management strategies for sustainable agro-ecosystems, some political and social approaches will be needed, based on a common understanding that soil and agro-ecosystems are essential for a sustainable society.     

Perceptions of climate change,multiple stressors and livelihoods on marginal African coasts

Studies of multiple stressors in Africa often focus on vulnerable inland communities. Rising concentrations of the world’s poor live in coastal rural–urban areas with direct dependencies on marine as well as terrestrial ecosystem goods and services. Using participatory methods we elicited perceptions of stressors and their sources, impacts and consequences held by coastal communities in eastern Africa (Mtwara in Tanzania and Maputo in Mozambique). Respondent-informed timelines suggest wars, economic policies and natural increase have led to natural resource-dependent populations in marginal, previously little-inhabited lowland coastal areas. Respondents (n = 91) in interviews and focus groups rank climate stressors (temperature rise/erratic rain) highest amongst human/natural stressors having negative impacts on livelihoods and wellbeing (e.g., cross-scale cost of living increases including food and fuel prices). Sources of stress and impacts were mixed in time and space, complicating objective identification of causal chains. Some appeared to be specific to coastal areas. Respondents reported farms failing and rising dependence on stressed marine resources, food and fuel prices and related dependence on traders and credit shrunk by negative global market trends. Development in the guise of tourism and conservation projects limited access to land–sea livelihoods and resources in rural–urban areas (coastal squeeze). Mental modelling clarified resource user perceptions of complex linkages from local to international levels. We underline risks of the poor in marginal coastal areas facing double or multiple exposures to multiple stressors, with climate variability suggesting the risks of climate change.     

The implications of new information and communication technologies for sustainability

This paper discusses the relationship of new information and communication technologies (ICTs) and sustainable development. It deconstructs popular myths about a sustainable information society. One myth is that telework has reduced the need to travel and hence environmental pollution. The reality is that teleworkers make up only a small share of the total workforce, telework can generate new social relationships and hence the need for more travelling, work-related travel produces only a small amount of the total carbon dioxide emissions, and that the total distance travelled per employee is constantly rising. Another myth is that information economy is weightless and dematerialized which reduces environmental impacts. The energy and resource intensities of the ICT sector are indeed lower than the one of the total economy. The ICT sector also emits less CO₂ than the total economy. But the ICT sector constitutes only a small portion of the total value added and fossil fuel combustion is still the dominant activity of modern industrial economies. Some stakeholders argue that virtual products allow resource, energy, and transport savings. But burning digital music on compact discs and DVDs, printing digital articles and books, etc. results in rebound effects that cause new material and energy impacts, computers have a low life span of 2–3 years, reusable and upgradeable computers and computer equipment are hardly used and might not be as profitable as non-reusable ones, computers are consuming much energy. Alternatives such as energy consumption labels on ICTs and green ICTs that consume less energy contradict dominant economic interests. A sustainable information society is a society that makes use of ICTs and knowledge for fostering a good life for all human beings of current and future generations by strengthening biological diversity, technological usability, economic wealth for all, political participation of all, and cultural wisdom. Achieving a sustainable information society costs, it demands a conscious reduction of profits by not investing in the future of capital, but the future of humans, society, and nature.     

Pharmaceutical management through environmental product labeling in Sweden

There is an increased awareness that medicinal products for human use may cause negative effects in the environment. In Sweden a voluntary environmental classification system for drugs has been established in collaboration between producers, authorities and the public health care, and used for five years. The idea is to enhance the market demand for medicines with less environmental impact, which in turn will stimulate the producers to design future medicines to be more environmentally friendly. The system is open to the public and based on assessment of the active ingredient in the medicinal product into several classes of risk and hazard, respectively. It is closely related to the EMEA guidelines. Risk is expressed as the ratio between the predicted environmental concentration (PEC) of the active ingredient (AI) and its predicted no effect concentration (PNEC). The hazard is expressed in terms of the AI's persistence, potential to bioaccumulation, and eco-toxicity. Drug data for the classification are delivered by the respective producers.Hitherto more than 300 AI, representing more than 50% of the Swedish volume of drug use, have been classified. Data for risk assessment were missing in 47% of AI. Among drugs with data 7% had a PEC/PNEC ratio > 1, and another 7% had a ratio between 0.1 and 1. The AIs with highest ratio (> 10) were two estrogens. Data for hazard assessment were lacking in 16% of the AI. Among drugs with environmental data 92% were not ready biodegradable, 23% had potential to bioaccumulation, and 61% were toxic to aquatic organisms at a concentration below 1 mg/l. These data are utilized by regional pharmaceutical expert groups when selecting substances to be recommended in public health care in Sweden. They may also be used by prescribing doctors who want to identify the environmentally most favourable substance among several with equivalent medical effect.We conclude that environmental data on human medicinal products are often missing, or reveal unfavourable environmental properties. A proper judgement of the environmental impact of an AI requires a joint evaluation of its risk and hazard. We suggest that the pharmaceutical producers should highlight environmental precaution when designing new AIs, and that the environmental data should be transparent to the general public.     

环境价值的多元不可比性及其字典式偏好研究

绝大多数环境物品属于非市场资源,没有市场价格,因此市场体制低估甚至忽视了环境的价值,这是产生全球环境问题的深刻根源。在环境经济学中被广泛采用的显示偏好或明示偏好等非市场价值导出方法尽管可以估计环境的经济价值,但这些方法仍以新古典经济学的一元价值论为基础,忽视了环境物品的价值多元性和不可估价性。近年来在环境伦理领域兴起的字典式偏好可以较好地描述环境多元价值,反映环境物品具有伦理属性、公共属性和政治属性。相对于新古典经济学的福利最大化和利益补偿原则而言,商议是一种可以发现和容纳环境多元价值的机制,也是现代市民社会解决环境争议的重要途径之一。     

Examining Environmental Kuznets Curve for river effluents in India

This study aims to determine the trade-off between river pollution and the growth of the economy in the context of India using the concept of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). According to EKC theory, environmental pressure tends to rise faster than income growth in the early stages of economic development and then declines in the later stages with further economic growth. The present study has used the cross-sectional time series data for river pollutants of Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) and Dissolved Hydrogen Ions (PH) across various states of India for the period 1990–1991 to 2005–2006. This study shows why the conventional EKC model is not sufficient to ascertain the declining path of pollution as the economy grows in the second stage. The paper uses the modified EKC theory where the EKC curve is proposed to have 2 turning points. Our results indicated ‘tilted-S shaped’ relationship which contradicts EKC in the early stages. Most of the regions that were studied have crossed the first turning point but are still to cross the second turning point, which means that there will be an ascent in the pollution level in the future. This calls for more stringent environment policies complementing the desired growth path.     

Land use and cover change in Japan and Tokyo’s appetite for meat

Urban consumption of ecosystems services such as food generates environmental impacts at different geographical scales. In the last few decades Tokyoites have shown an increasing appetite for meat. This study examines the environmental implications of Tokyo’s increasing meat consumption by analyzing how this trend has affected land use and cover change in areas near and far away. Historical databases (1970–2005) are employed in order to explore meat consumption patterns in Tokyo and to relate it with beef and pork production in areas within the country and abroad. It also integrates the historical analysis of production and consumption patterns with a discussion of the drivers (e.g., wealth, price, policies and seafood availability) behind these trends. We identified that meat production in Japan followed three distinct phases between 1877 and 2005. In the first period it took 50 years for production to increase by 50%, while during the next phase production showed the same growth in just half the time. Major changes in land use/cover change because of domestic meat production occurred mainly during the second phase and, thereafter, when domestic production declined and was substituted to a great extent by imports. Despite the increasing consumption of imported meat, Tokyo relies greatly on domestic meat produced in its neighboring prefectures. The paper concludes that regional planning can be used as an effective instrument to protect the environment and secure protein for the population of mega-urban areas such as Tokyo.     

A forecast analysis on world population and urbanization process

The continuous growth of world population and the intensification of urbanization process create a challenge to environment quality and sustainable development around the world. In this paper I tried to conduct a forecast analysis of near-future urbanization related population growth worldwide, based on recent demographic trends. Such an analysis can provide important insights into the prospects for changes in the size and composition of world population and in urbanization process. Optimal polynomial functions were used to fit historical trajectories of population dynamics, and the detailed forecasts of the population mainly over the period 2010–2030 were conducted and analyzed. If the past pattern continues, world total population would increase to 7.94–8.33 billion in 2030 and the annual growth is expected to continually decline in the forecast period. Global total population would stop increasing during the period 2050–2060 and would not exceed 9.5 billion in the future. The total population of Africa, Asia, Oceania, South America, North & Central America would separately increase to 1.35–1.41, 4.86–5.65, 0.04–0.05, 0.44–0.45, and 0.71–0.72 billion in 2030. Europe’s total population is forecast to decline to 0.64–0.67 billion in 2030. World’s rural population is expected to grow to the maximum during the period 2015–2020 and would greatly decline after that period. Global rural population would reach 3.12–3.41 billion in 2030. Rural population in Asia and Africa is estimated to increase and achieve the maximum around 2025 and decline thereafter. For other regions, the rural population would continually decline in the forecast period. Urban population in the world would continually grow and reach 4.72–5.00 billion in 2030, an increase of 48.6–57.8%. However the annual growth of urban population is expected to increase to the maximum (6.86 million/year) during the period 2020–2025 and then decline in the following years. Urban population is projected to continually grow in all regions excepting Europe. Europe’s urban population is expected to decline in the period 2010–2030. Urbanization process worldwide, represented by the ratio urban population versus total population (RUT) and the ratio rural population versus urban population, is expected to continue during the period 2010–2030. The RUT of the world is projected to reach 0.5 before 2010 and would continue to increase in the forecast period. Global RUT is estimated to reach 0.56 in 2030. However, the regional patterns of urbanization process would be diverse. Europe’s RUT is estimated to continually decline in the forecast period and reach 0.68 in 2030. The RUT for Africa and Caribbean would continually increase before 2030, while the RUTs for Asia and South America are estimated to achieve their maximums around 2025 and decline in the following years. Oceania and North & Central America would thoroughly realize urbanization (≈1) during the periods 2020–2025 and 2025–2030. The expansion of world population and urbanization will continually exert a stronger stress to environment quality and sustainable development in a near future. However we may expect this situation would start to change from mid-21st century after total population has achieved its maximum. Readers should send their comments on this paper to BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

High Environmental Cost behind Low China Price

Abstract

China has won the name of the world factory being famous for exporting a great deal of and various kinds of low-price merchandise. However, most of Chinese exports are primary goods or manufactured products that create heavy pollution and require intensive use of resources. Chinese products go abroad, but their following harms stay behind. The article analyzes many obvious low-price facts in China and their concomitant terrible environmental results in detail, and points out that there are huge hidden troubles in the way of China's sustainable development behind her seemingly flourishing economy.     

基于空间信息扩散法的环境风险评估模型

环境和人类的生存和发展息息相关,随着全球工业化进程进一步的推进,自然环境在人类的盲目生产活动中经常遭到毁灭性的破坏,同时被破坏的环境反过来又会影响人类正常的生产活动。因此,如何有效地检测和控制由人类生产活动引起的环境风险显得尤为重要。本文通过研究信息扩散理论在环境风险评价领域的应用成果,在改进和优化现有的研究成果前提下,同时融入了模糊评判等相关评估理论,建立了一种复合的空间信息扩散法的环境风险评价模型。该模型在现有的基础上引进环境影响因子,修正了由普通的信息扩散模型所引起的不准确性。通过该模型,能提高在环境风险扩散预测和控制领域的准确率,为降低和控制风险后果提供有效的参考。最后通过一个示例,应用本模型进行环境风险分析,证明模型的实用性,并且对比普通的扩散模型更具有优越性。本文所研究的成果对重大工程发生事故和危机后的环境风险评估具有借鉴的意义。     

Optimum Supportable Global Population: Water Accounting and Dietary Considerations

In this paper we develop a novel, comprehensive method for estimating the global human carrying capacity in reference to food production factors and levels of food consumption. Other important interrelated dimensions of carrying capacity such as energy, non-renewable resources, and ecology are not considered here and offer opportunities for future work. Use of grain production (rain-fed/irrigated), animal product production (grazing/factory farm), diet pattern (grain/animal products), and a novel water accounting method (demand/supply) based on actual water consumption and not on withdrawal, help resolve uncertainties to find better estimates. Current Western European food consumption is used as a goal for the entire world. Then the carrying capacity lies in the range of 4.5–4.7 billion but requiring agricultural water use increase by 450–530% to 4725–5480 km³, the range based on different estimates of available water. The cost of trapping and conveying such water, will run 4.5–13.5 trillion over 50 years requiring an annual spending increase of 150–400%, straining the developing world where most of the population increase is expected. We reconfirm estimates in the literature using a dynamic model. ‘Corner scenarios’ with extreme optimistic assumptions were analyzed using the reasoning support software system GLOBESIGHT. With a hypothetical scenario with a mainly vegetarian diet (grazing only with 5% animal product), the carrying capacity can be as high as 14 billion. Ecological deterioration that surely accompanies such a population increase would negatively impact sustainable population. Using our approach the impact of ecological damage could be studied. Inter- and intra-regional inequities are other considerations that need to be studied.