Links between food trade,climate change and food security in developed countries: A case study of Sweden

Food security is a global concern affecting even highly developed countries. Ongoing globalisation of food systems, characterised by trading interdependencies, means that agricultural production can be disrupted by climate change, affecting food availability. This study investigated Sweden’s food security by identifying major food import categories and associated trade partners (using the World Integrated Trade System database) and vulnerability to frictions in trade deriving from climate change. Vulnerability was assessed through three indicators: exposure based on diversity of sources, dominance and direct trade from supplying countries; sensitivity, assessed using the Climate Risk Index, and adaptive capacity, assessed using the Fragile State Index. The results revealed that Sweden’s grain imports may be most vulnerable, and animal products least vulnerable, to climate change. Management strategies based on this preliminary assessment can be developed by integrating climate vulnerability deriving from food trading into the ‘Gravity’ model, to improve prediction of trade flows.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01623-w.     

I-C-SEA Change: A participatory tool for rapid assessment of vulnerability of tropical coastal communities to climate change impacts

We present a synoptic, participatory vulnerability assessment tool to help identify the likely impacts of climate change and human activity in coastal areas and begin discussions among stakeholders on the coping and adaptation measures necessary to minimize these impacts. Vulnerability assessment tools are most needed in the tropical Indo-Pacific, where burgeoning populations and inequitable economic growth place even greater burdens on natural resources and support ecosystems. The Integrated Coastal Sensitivity, Exposure, and Adaptive Capacity for Climate Change (I-C-SEA Change) tool is built around a series of scoring rubrics to guide non-specialists in assigning scores to the sensitivity and adaptive capacity components of vulnerability, particularly for coral reef, seagrass, and mangrove habitats, along with fisheries and coastal integrity. These scores are then weighed against threat or exposure to climate-related impacts such as marine flooding and erosion. The tool provides opportunities for learning by engaging more stakeholders in participatory planning and group decision-making. It also allows for information to be collated and processed during a “town-hall” meeting, facilitating further discussion, data validation, and even interactive scenario building.

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The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0652-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

The sensitivity of current and future forest managers to climate-induced changes in ecological processes

Climate vulnerability of managed forest ecosystems is not only determined by ecological processes but also influenced by the adaptive capacity of forest managers. To better understand adaptive behaviour, we conducted a questionnaire study among current and future forest managers (i.e. active managers and forestry students) in Austria. We found widespread belief in climate change (94.7 % of respondents), and no significant difference between current and future managers. Based on intended responses to climate-induced ecosystem changes, we distinguished four groups: highly sensitive managers (27.7 %), those mainly sensitive to changes in growth and regeneration processes (46.7 %), managers primarily sensitive to regeneration changes (11.2 %), and insensitive managers (14.4 %). Experiences and beliefs with regard to disturbance-related tree mortality were found to particularly influence a manager’s sensitivity to climate change. Our findings underline the importance of the social dimension of climate change adaptation, and suggest potentially strong adaptive feedbacks between ecosystems and their managers.

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The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0737-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Questioning complacency: climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway

Most European assessments of climate change impacts have been carried out on sectors and ecosystems, providing a narrow understanding of what climate change really means for society. Furthermore, the main focus has been on technological adaptations, with less attention paid to the process of climate change adaptation. In this article, we present and analyze findings from recent studies on climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway, with the aim of identifying the wider social impacts of climate change. Three main lessons can be drawn. First, the potential thresholds and indirect effects may be more important than the direct, sectoral effects. Second, highly sensitive sectors, regions, and communities combine with differential social vulnerability to create both winners and losers. Third, high national levels of adaptive capacity mask the barriers and constraints to adaptation, particularly among those who are most vulnerable to climate change. Based on these results, we question complacency in Norway and other European countries regarding climate change impacts and adaptation. We argue that greater attention needs to be placed on the social context of climate change impacts and on the processes shaping vulnerability and adaptation.     

Socio-economic vulnerability to climate change in the central mountainous region of eastern Mexico

Climate change effects are expected to be more severe for some segments of society than others. In Mexico, climate variability associated with climate change has important socio-economic and environmental impacts. From the central mountainous region of eastern Veracruz, Mexico, we analyzed data of total annual precipitation and mean annual temperature from 26 meteorological stations (1922–2008) and from General Circulation Models. We developed climate change scenarios based on the observed trends with projections to 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100, finding considerable local climate changes with reductions in precipitation of over 700 mm and increases in temperature of ~9°C for the year 2100. Deforested areas located at windward were considered more vulnerable, representing potential risk for natural environments, local communities, and the main crops cultivated (sugarcane, coffee, and corn). Socio-economic vulnerability is exacerbated in areas where temperature increases and precipitation decreases.

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The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0690-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Climate change,risk perception,and protection motivation among high-altitude residents of the Mt. Everest region in Nepal

Mountain ecosystems are considered vulnerable to early impacts of climate change. Whether and how local residents of these areas perceive these changes, however, remain under-studied questions. By conducting a household survey in the Khumbu region of Nepal, this study assessed local residents’ experience-based perception of changes in climate trends and patterns, perceived risk, and attitudes towards climate issues. Multivariate cluster analysis based on residents’ climate change beliefs revealed three segments: “Cautious,” “Disengaged,” and “Alarmed.” A comparison of these segments along key psychosocial constructs of Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) revealed significant inter-segment differences in residents’ perception of severity, vulnerability, response efficacy, self-efficacy, and response cost associated with engaging in mitigating behavior. Results shed light on how residents of high elevation areas that are considered to be exposed to early impacts of climate change perceive the risk and intend to respond. These findings could also assist stakeholders working in other similar mountain ecosystems in understanding vulnerability and in working towards climate readiness.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01369-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Reinforcing nature-based solutions through tools providing social-ecological-technological integration

While held to be a means for climate change adaptation and mitigation, nature-based solutions (NbS) themselves are vulnerable to climate change. To find ways of compensating for this vulnerability we combine a focused literature review on how information technology has been used to strengthen positive social–ecological–technological feedback, with the development of a prototype decision-support tool. Guided by the literature review, the tool integrates recent advances in using globally available remote sensing data to elicit information on functional diversity and ecosystem service provisioning with information on human service demand and population vulnerability. When combined, these variables can inform climate change adaptation strategies grounded in local social–ecological realities. This type of integrated monitoring and packaging information to be actionable have potential to support NbS management and local knowledge building for context-tailored solutions to societal challenges in urban environments.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-022-01801-4.     

Has the IPCC’s revised vulnerability concept been well adopted?

In the Third and Fourth Assessment Reports (TAR and AR4, respectively) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), vulnerability is conceived as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. However, in its Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) and Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the IPCC redefined and separated exposure, and it reconceptualized vulnerability to be a function of sensitivity and capacity to cope and adapt. In this review, we found that the IPCC’s revised vulnerability concept has not been well adopted and that researchers’ preference, possible misinterpretation, possible confusion, and possible unawareness are among the possible technical and practical reasons. Among the issues that need further clarification from the IPCC is whether or not such a reconceptualization of vulnerability in the SREX/AR5 necessarily implies nullification of the TAR/AR4 vulnerability concept as far as the IPCC is concerned.     

Lessons from farmers’ adaptive practices to climate change in China: a systematic literature review

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Due to the vulnerability and exposure of agriculture, farmers’ adaptive strategies to climate change are important to food security and...     

Adaptive Capacity of Fishing Communities at Marine Protected Areas: A Case Study from the Colombian Pacific

Departing from a theoretical methodology, we estimate empirically an index of adaptive capacity (IAC) of a fishing community to the establishment of marine protected areas (MPAs). We carried out household surveys, designed to obtain information for indicators and sub-indicators, and calculated the IAC. Moreover, we performed a sensitivity analysis to check for robustness of the results. Our findings show that, despite being located between two MPAs, the fishing community of Bazán in the Colombian Pacific is highly vulnerable and that the socioeconomic dimension of the IAC constitutes the most binding dimension for building adaptive capacity. Bazán is characterized by extreme poverty, high dependence on resources, and lack of basic public infrastructure. Notwithstanding, social capital and local awareness about ecological conditions may act as enhancers of adaptive capacity. The establishment of MPAs should consider the development of strategies to confer adaptive capacity to local communities highly dependent on resource extraction.     

Climate Change and Forest Communities: Prospects for Building Institutional Adaptive Capacity in the Congo Basin Forests

Tropical forests are vulnerable to climate-change representing a risk for indigenous peoples and forest-dependent communities. Mechanisms to conserve the forest, such as REDD+, could assist in the mitigation of climate change, reduce vulnerability, and enable people to adapt. Ninety-eight interviews were conducted in three countries containing the Congo Basin forest, Cameroon, CAR, and DRC, to investigate perceptions of decision-makers within, and responses of the institutions of the state, private sector, and civil society to the challenges of climate change. Results indicate that while decision-makers’ awareness of climate change is high, direct institutional action is at an early stage. Adaptive capacity is currently low, but it could be enhanced with further development of institutional linkages and increased coordination of multilevel responses across all institutions and with local people. It is important to build networks with forest-dependent stakeholders at the local level, who can contribute knowledge that will build overall institutional adaptive capacity.     

Vulnerability of coastal livelihoods to shrimp farming: Insights from Mozambique

Millions of people around the world depend on shrimp aquaculture for their livelihoods. Yet, the phenomenal growth of shrimp farming has often given rise to considerable environmental and social damage. This article examines the impacts of commercial, export-oriented shrimp aquaculture on local livelihood vulnerability by comparing the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of shrimp farm employees with non-farm employees in rural Mozambique. Exposure to stressors was similar between the two groups. Shrimp farm employees had higher assets and higher adaptive capacity than non-farm employees. However, because their income is heavily dependent on a single commodity, shrimp farm employees were highly susceptible to the boom crop nature of intensive shrimp farming. The implications for aquaculture policy and vulnerability research are discussed. The article argues that coastal vulnerability is dynamic, variable, and influenced by multiple processes operating at multiple scales.     

When Ecosystem Services Crash: Preparing for Big,Fast, Patchy Climate Change

Assessments of adaptation options generally focus on incremental, homogeneous ecosystem responses to climate even though climate change impacts can be big, fast, and patchy across a region. Regional drought-induced tree die-off in semiarid woodlands highlights how an ecosystem crash fundamentally alters most ecosystem services and poses management challenges. Building on previous research showing how choice of location is linked to adaptive capacity and vulnerability, we developed a framework showing how the options for retaining desired ecosystem services in the face of sudden crashes depend on how portable the service is and whether the stakeholder is flexible with regard to the location where they receive their services. Stakeholders using portable services, or stakeholders who can move to other locations to obtain services, may be more resilient to ecosystem crashes. Our framework suggests that entering into cooperative networks with regionally distributed stakeholders is key to building resilience to big, fast, patchy crashes.     

Carbon Sequestration Function of Check-Dams: A Case Study of the Loess Plateau in China

Check-dams are the most common structures for controlling soil erosion in the Loess Plateau. However, the effect of check-dams on carbon sequestration, along with sediment transport and deposition, has not been assessed over large areas. In this study, we evaluated the carbon sequestration function of check-dams in the Loess Plateau. The results indicate that there were approximately 11 000 check-dams distributed in the Loess Plateau, with an estimate of the amount of sediment of 21 × 10⁹ m³ and a soil organic carbon storage amount of 0.945 Pg. Our study reveals that check-dams in the Loess Plateau not only conserve soil and water but also sequester carbon.     

In harm’s way: Non-migration decisions of people at risk of slow-onset coastal hazards in Bangladesh

Non-migration is an adaptive strategy that has received little attention in environmental migration studies. We explore the leveraging factors of non-migration decisions of communities at risk in coastal Bangladesh, where exposure to both rapid- and slow-onset natural disasters is high. We apply the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) to empirical data and assess how threat perception and coping appraisal influences migration decisions in farming communities suffering from salinization of cropland. This study consists of data collected through quantitative household surveys (n = 200) and semi-structured interviews from four villages in southwest coastal Bangladesh. Results indicate that most respondents are unwilling to migrate, despite better economic conditions and reduced environmental risk in other locations. Land ownership, social connectedness, and household economic strength are the strongest predictors of non-migration decisions. This study is the first to use the PMT to understand migration-related behaviour and the findings are relevant for policy planning in vulnerable regions where exposure to climate-related risks is high but populations are choosing to remain in place.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01552-8.     

Intensive land use in the Swedish mountains between AD 800 and 1200 led to deforestation and ecosystem transformation with long-lasting effects

Anthropogenic deforestation has shaped ecosystems worldwide. In subarctic ecosystems, primarily inhabited by native peoples, deforestation is generally considered to be mainly associated with the industrial period. Here we examined mechanisms underlying deforestation a thousand years ago in a high-mountain valley with settlement artifacts located in subarctic Scandinavia. Using the Heureka Forestry Decision Support System, we modeled pre-settlement conditions and effects of tree cutting on forest cover. To examine lack of regeneration and present nutrient status, we analyzed soil nitrogen. We found that tree cutting could have deforested the valley within some hundred years. Overexploitation left the soil depleted beyond the capacity of re-establishment of trees. We suggest that pre-historical deforestation has occurred also in subarctic ecosystems and that ecosystem boundaries were especially vulnerable to this process. This study improves our understanding of mechanisms behind human-induced ecosystem transformations and tree-line changes, and of the concept of wilderness in the Scandinavian mountain range.

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The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0634-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

The relationship among biodiversity,governance, wealth,and scientific capacity at a country level: Disaggregation and prioritization

At a global level, the relationship between biodiversity importance and capacity to manage it is often assumed to be negative, without much differentiation among the more than 200 countries and territories of the world. We examine this relationship using a database including terrestrial biodiversity, wealth and governance indicators for most countries. From these, principal components analysis was used to construct aggregated indicators at global and regional scales. Wealth, governance, and scientific capacity represent different skills and abilities in relation to biodiversity importance. Our results show that the relationship between biodiversity and the different factors is not simple: in most regions wealth and capacity varies positively with biodiversity, while governance vary negatively with biodiversity. However, these trends, to a certain extent, are concentrated in certain groups of nations and outlier countries. We discuss our results in the context of collaboration and joint efforts among biodiversity-rich countries and foreign agencies.

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The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-014-0581-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Assessing the sustainability and adaptive capacity of the gooseneck barnacle co-management system in Asturias,N. Spain

The gooseneck barnacle fishery in Asturias (N. Spain) has undergone three important changes: (1) the early implementation of a co-management system based on Territorial User Rights for Fishing, (2) a change in management measures (due to a decrease in landings), and (3) an economic crisis. This has allowed us to analyze the systems’ sustainability in time through examining five critical variables: landings, effort, catch per unit effort (CPUE), mean market prices, and annual revenue. Additionally, we used focus groups and questionnaires to determine the response of the system to these three changes. Co-management has succeeded in maintaining or increasing CPUE throughout all management areas and produced stable mean market prices. This was achieved through flexible management policies and adaptive strategies adopted by the fishers, such as increased selectivity and diversification. The analysis of this fishery provides important lessons regarding the need to understand the evolutionary dynamics of co-management and the importance of embracing adaptive capacity.

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The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0687-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Pollinators,pests, and predators: Recognizing ecological trade-offs in agroecosystems

Ecological interactions between crops and wild animals frequently result in increases or declines in crop yield. Yet, positive and negative interactions have mostly been treated independently, owing partly to disciplinary silos in ecological and agricultural sciences. We advocate a new integrated research paradigm that explicitly recognizes cost-benefit trade-offs among animal activities and acknowledges that these activities occur within social-ecological contexts. Support for this paradigm is presented in an evidence-based conceptual model structured around five evidence statements highlighting emerging trends applicable to sustainable agriculture. The full range of benefits and costs associated with animal activities in agroecosystems cannot be quantified by focusing on single species groups, crops, or systems. Management of productive agroecosystems should sustain cycles of ecological interactions between crops and wild animals, not isolate these cycles from the system. Advancing this paradigm will therefore require integrated studies that determine net returns of animal activity in agroecosystems.

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The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0696-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Assessment of Aquifer Vulnerability in an Agricultural Area in Spain Using the DRASTIC Model

The assessment of aquifer vulnerability is a very important task, especially in agricultural areas because the quality and availability of groundwater affects both the sustainability of agriculture and the quality of life. In this study, an integrated approach is considered, with the use of the generic and agricultural DRASTIC models as well as a geographic information system (GIS), to assess groundwater vulnerability in the agricultural area of Barrax, in the province of Albacete, in Spain. Seven parameters—depth to water, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, impact of vadose zone media, and hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer (DRASTIC)—have been considered as weighted layers to enable an accurate groundwater risk mapping. The results of the generic DRASTIC model indicated very low vulnerability to contamination for Barrax groundwater due to limited urban and industrial development in the wider area. However, agricultural activities impose pressure to groundwater resources and the results of the agricultural DRASTIC model show that 6.86% of the study area is characterized by very high, 2.29% by high, 47.28% by medium, 38.28% by low, and the remaining 5.29% by no vulnerability to groundwater contamination. The distribution of nitrate concentration in groundwater in the area under study is quite well correlated with the agricultural DRASTIC vulnerability index. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to acknowledge statistical uncertainty in the estimation of each parameter used, to assess its impact, and thus to identify the most critical parameters that require further investigation. Depth to water and impact of vadose zone are the parameters that had the most noticeable impact on the generic DRASTIC vulnerability index followed by the soil media and topography. In contrast, the agricultural DRASTIC method is more sensitive to the removal of the depth to water parameter followed by the topography and the soil media parameters.