Socio-economic vulnerability to climate change in the central mountainous region of eastern Mexico

Climate change effects are expected to be more severe for some segments of society than others. In Mexico, climate variability associated with climate change has important socio-economic and environmental impacts. From the central mountainous region of eastern Veracruz, Mexico, we analyzed data of total annual precipitation and mean annual temperature from 26 meteorological stations (1922–2008) and from General Circulation Models. We developed climate change scenarios based on the observed trends with projections to 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100, finding considerable local climate changes with reductions in precipitation of over 700 mm and increases in temperature of ~9°C for the year 2100. Deforested areas located at windward were considered more vulnerable, representing potential risk for natural environments, local communities, and the main crops cultivated (sugarcane, coffee, and corn). Socio-economic vulnerability is exacerbated in areas where temperature increases and precipitation decreases.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0690-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Occurrence of polybrominated diphenyl ethers in soil from the central Loess Plateau, China: role of regional range atmospheric transport

Very few studies were conducted in highland and depositional areas in studying the transport and behavior of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). In this study, surface soils were collected from Huan County to investigate the level, profile, and potential influence of PBDEs via regional range atmospheric transport in the central part of the Loess Plateau (CLP) of China, one of the most extensive areas of loess deposition in the world. PBDEs were ubiquitous and log-normally distributed in soils from the CLP with mean concentrations of 0.91 and 0.54 ng g⁻¹ for ΣPBDEs (sum of PBDE congeners except for BDE-209) and BDE-209, respectively. BDE-209 was predominated congener (43.5%), followed by BDE-47 (15.7%), 99 (10.7%), and 153 (7.5%). Further principal component analysis on congener profiles showed that PBDEs in the CLP originated from similar source(s). Additionally, significant differences in the ratios of BDE-47 to 99 and BDE-153 to 154 were found between soil samples and commercial products, indicating that they have undergone fractionation during the process of regional range atmospheric transport. The deposition of PBDEs in the CLP could be influenced by the sources from surrounding regions. For example, Xi’an may have potential influence to the CLP based on geographical analysis and concentrations comparison of PBDEs in gaseous. Therefore, more studies are needed to clarify the atmospheric transport and fate of PBDEs in this region.     

Climate Change and Agricultural Development: Adapting Polish Agriculture to Reduce Future Nutrient Loads in a Coastal Watershed

Currently, there is a major concern about the future of nutrient loads discharged into the Baltic Sea from Polish rivers because they are main contributors to its eutrophication. To date, no watershed-scale studies have properly addressed this issue. This paper fills this gap by using a scenario-modeling framework applied in the Reda watershed, a small (482 km²) agricultural coastal area in northern Poland. We used the SWAT model to quantify the effects of future climate, land cover, and management changes under multiple scenarios up to the 2050s. The combined effect of climate and land use change on N-NO₃ and P-PO₄ loads is an increase by 20–60 and 24–31 %, respectively, depending on the intensity of future agricultural usage. Using a scenario that assumes a major shift toward a more intensive agriculture following the Danish model would bring significantly higher crop yields but cause a great deterioration of water quality. Using vegetative cover in winter and spring (VC) would be a very efficient way to reduce future P-PO₄ loads so that they are lower than levels observed at present. However, even the best combination of measures (VC, buffer zones, reduced fertilization, and constructed wetlands) would not help to remediate heavily increased N-NO₃ loads due to climate change and agricultural intensification.     

Modelling the impact of nitrogen deposition, climate change and nutrient limitations on tree carbon sequestration in Europe for the period 1900-2050

We modelled the combined effects of past and expected future changes in climate and nitrogen deposition on tree carbon sequestration by European forests for the period 1900-2050. Two scenarios for deposition (current legislation and maximum technically feasible reductions) and two climate scenarios (no change and SRES A1 scenario) were used. Furthermore, the possible limitation of forest growth by calcium, magnesium, potassium and phosphorus is investigated. The area and age structure of the forests was assumed to stay constant to observations during the period 1970-1990. Under these assumptions, the simulations show that the change in forest growth and carbon sequestration in the past is dominated by changes in nitrogen deposition, while climate change is the major driver for future carbon sequestration. However, its impact is reduced by nitrogen availability. Furthermore, limitations in base cations, especially magnesium, and in phosphorus may significantly affect predicted growth in the future.     

Sensitivity of agricultural runoff loads to rising levels of CO2 and climate change in the San Joaquin Valley watershed of California

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to assess the impact of climate change on sediment, nitrate, phosphorus and pesticide (diazinon and chlorpyrifos) runoff in the San Joaquin watershed in California. This study used modeling techniques that include variations of CO₂, temperature, and precipitation to quantify these responses. Precipitation had a greater impact on agricultural runoff compared to changes in either CO₂ concentration or temperature. Increase of precipitation by ±10% and ±20% generally changed agricultural runoff proportionally. Solely increasing CO₂ concentration resulted in an increase in nitrate, phosphorus, and chlorpyrifos yield by 4.2, 7.8, and 6.4%, respectively, and a decrease in sediment and diazinon yield by 6.3 and 5.3%, respectively, in comparison to the present-day reference scenario. Only increasing temperature reduced yields of all agricultural runoff components. The results suggest that agricultural runoff in the San Joaquin watershed is sensitive to precipitation, temperature, and CO₂ concentration changes.     

Towards a Tipping Point in Responding to Change: Rising Costs,Fewer Options for Arctic and Global Societies

Climate change incurs costs, but government adaptation budgets are limited. Beyond a certain point, individuals must bear the costs or adapt to new circumstances, creating political-economic tipping points that we explore in three examples. First, many Alaska Native villages are threatened by erosion, but relocation is expensive. To date, critically threatened villages have not yet been relocated, suggesting that we may already have reached a political-economic tipping point. Second, forest fires shape landscape and ecological characteristics in interior Alaska. Climate-driven changes in fire regime require increased fire-fighting resources to maintain current patterns of vegetation and land use, but these resources appear to be less and less available, indicating an approaching tipping point. Third, rapid sea level rise, for example from accelerated melting of the Greenland ice sheet, will create a choice between protection and abandonment for coastal regions throughout the world, a potential global tipping point comparable to those now faced by Arctic communities. The examples illustrate the basic idea that if costs of response increase more quickly than available resources, then society has fewer and fewer options as time passes.