World energy future: the demand side challenge

Non-OECD countries will account for the greatest share of growth in future energy demand. Policy-makers, in response to public concern that the continued use of fossil-fuels could bring about global climate change have sought out policies which will reduce future energy demand. However, economic instruments which can do so, such as carbon taxes, provoke significant distributional and equity issues. Most OECD governments have set CO₂ reduction targets, but few of those targets are backed up by effective legislation and programmes. Instead, most governments seem to count on increasing energy efficiency, seemingly 'spontaneously', to bring about CO₂ reductions. Realization of OECD CO₂ reduction targets would be insignificant on a global scale, but they are nevertheless very ambitious when compared to recent changes in the OECD's energy-derived CO₂ emissions. Reliance on market forces alone may therefore not be enough.     

The global greenhouse effect

The global warming caused by emissions of CO₂ and trace gases is expected to cause shifts in climatic zones and rainfall patterns, and possibly thermal expansion of oceans. There are likely to be impacts on global agriculture and the food security of low-income countries, as well as disruptions to major ecosystem complexes such as forests. Rising sea levels will threaten low-lying regions, coastal zones and islands. Policy-makers will therefore have to consider the relative costs and benefits of 'doing nothing', preventive measures and adaptive responses. Economics should play a key and innovative role in this analysis.     

Energy and environmental issues in Vietnam

This paper discusses the pattern of commercial and traditional energy use in Vietnam and its evolution. It presents the trend of energy-related emissions of CO₂, SO₂ and NO_x during the past decade with a methodology given in an Appendix. Recent developments of environmental policies and institutions in Vietnam are also discussed.     

Control strategies for vehicular NOx emissions in Guangzhou, China

Guangzhou is a city in southern China that has experienced very rapid economic development in recent years. The city's air has very high concentrations of various pollutants, including sulphur dioxide (SO₂), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), ozone (O₃) and particulate. This paper reviews the changes in air quality in the city over the past 15 years, and notes that a serious vehicular-related emissions problem has been superimposed on the traditional coal-burning problem evident in most Chinese cities. As NOx concentrations have increased, oxidants and photochemical smog now interact with the traditional SO₂ and particulate pollutants, leading to increased health risks and other environmental concerns.
Any responsible NOx control strategy for the city must include vehicle emission control measures. This paper reviews control strategies designed to abate vehicle emissions to fulfill the city's air quality improvement target in 2010. A cost-effectiveness analysis suggests that, while NOx emission control is expensive, vehicular emission standards could achieve a relatively sizable emissions reduction at reasonable cost. To achieve the 2010 air quality target of NOx, advanced implementation of EURO3 standards is recommended, substituting for the EURO2 currently envisioned in the national regulations. Related technical options, including fuel quality improvements and inspection/maintenance (I/M) upgrades (ASM or IM240), are assessed as well.     

Book reviews

Book reviewed in this article:
Adjustment for Africa : A FUTURE FOR AFRICA: BEYOND THE POLITICS OF ADJUSTMENT By Bade Onimode
Energy systems and development : DIAGNOSIS OF ENERGY SYSTEMS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES by J. Girod
Minerals and the environment : MINING THE EARTH by John E. Young
Towards a sustainable future : BEYOND THE LIMITS: GLOBAL COLLAPSE OR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE by Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows and Jorgen Randers
A guidebook for metal mining : ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS OF SELECTED NON-FERROUS METALS (Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn, Au) ORE MINING
The cost of CO₂ emissions limits : BUYING GREENHOUSE INSURANCE: THE ECONOMIC COSTS OF CO₂ EMISSION LIMITS by A. S. Manne and R. G. Richels
Sustainable development : ENVIRONMENTALLY SOUND TECHNOLOGY FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT by the United Nations Center for Science and Technology     

MULTITEMPORAL SCALE HYDROGRAPH PREDICTION USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS1

Abstract: An artificial neural network (ANN) provides a mathematically flexible structure to identify complex nonlinear relationship between inputs and outputs. A multilayer perceptron ANN technique with an error back propagation algorithm was applied to a multitime-scale prediction of the stage of a hydro-logically closed lake, Devils Lake (DL), and discharge of the Red River of the North at Grand Forks station (RR-GF) in North Dakota. The modeling exercise used 1 year (2002), 5 years (1998–2002), and 27 years (1975–2002) of data for the daily, weekly, and monthly predictions, respectively. The hydrometeorological data (precipitations P_(t), P_(t-1), P_(t-2), P_(t-3), antecedent runoff/lake stage R_(t-1) and air temperature T_(t) were partitioned for training and for testing to predict the current hydro-graph at the selected DL and RR-GF stations. Performance of ANN was evaluated using three combinations of daily datasets (Input I = P_(t)), P_(t-l), P_(t-2), P_(t-3), T_(t) and R_(t-l); Input II = Input-l less P_(t) P_(t-l), P_(t-2), P_(t-3); and Input III = Input-II less T_(t)). Comparison of the model output using Input I data with the observed values showed average testing prediction efficiency (E) of 86 percent for DL basin and 46 percent for RR-GF basin, and higher efficiency for the daily than monthly simulations.     

Tradeable permits and the comprehensive approach to climate change

The need to constrain the rising concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has led to a growing interest in efficient ways of achieving it. Many analysts have argued for the advantages of tradeable emission permits. Others have pointed to the importance of addressing all sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. However, this 'comprehensive approach' at present appears incompatible with the use of tradeable permits, because few sources and sinks can be monitored with the accuracy required for such a system. It is not enough to make rough approximations, because inadequate monitoring and revision of approximations could disrupt the whole system. The best approach is to start by developing an efficient control system for the major sources which can be adequately monitored - primarily fossil-fuel CO₂ - and by ensuring that other sources and sinks may be introduced over time. This can be achieved by starting with a system of overlapping permits which focuses upon the major quantifiable sources (notably fossil CO₂), and introduces revisions as permits are retired and reissued.     

A model for the CO2 capture potential

Global warming is a result of increasing anthropogenic CO₂ emissions, and the consequences will be dramatic climate changes if no action is taken. One of the main global challenges in the years to come is therefore to reduce the CO₂ emissions.Increasing energy efficiency and a transition to renewable energy as the major energy source can reduce CO₂ emissions, but such measures can only lead to significant emission reductions in the long-term. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a promising technological option for reducing CO₂ emissions on a shorter time scale.A model to calculate the CO₂ capture potential has been developed, and it is estimated that 25 billion tonnes CO₂ can be captured and stored within the EU by 2050. Globally, 236 billion tonnes CO₂ can be captured and stored by 2050. The calculations indicate that wide implementation of CCS can reduce CO₂ emissions by 54% in the EU and 33% globally in 2050 compared to emission levels today.Such a reduction in emissions is not sufficient to stabilize the climate. Therefore, the strategy to achieve the necessary CO₂ emissions reductions must be a combination of (1) increasing energy efficiency, (2) switching from fossil fuel to renewable energy sources, and (3) wide implementation of CCS.     

资阳市大气污染源排放清单研究

采用实地调研、资料收集等方式获得了2017年资阳市典型污染源的活动水平数据,参照城市大气污染物排放清单编制技术手册建立了基于排放因子法和物料衡算法的资阳市大气污染源排放清单,分析了主要污染物的行业排放特征和空间分布特征。结果表明,2017年资阳市SO₂、NO_X、CO、PM₁₀、PM_2.5、VOCs、NH₃总排放量分别为3.58kt、13.91kt、94.91kt、25.51kt、8.67kt、23.84kt和46.44kt。SO₂排放主要来自工业源;NOX排放主要来自移动源;CO排放主要来自工业过程及移动源;PM₁₀和PM_2.5、排放来自扬尘源和露天秸秆焚烧;VOCs主要来自溶剂使用源;NH₃主要来自农业活动。资阳市主要污染物排放分布在工业点源较为集中的雁江区和安岳县,乐至县污染物排放量相对较小。     

Why Singapore's land transportation energy consumption is relatively low

Since the early 1970s, Singapore has enacted a number of measures to tackle traffic congestion, including measures to restrain vehicle ownership. Although Singapore's per capita GDP is comparable to that of OECD countries, the present car-ownership level in Singapore (10 cars per 100 people) is only a fraction of levels in the OECD countries. Traffic flow in this city-State is relatively smooth, even during peak hours. Although the measures taken were aimed primarily at tackling traffic congestion, they have had other positive impacts, such as reducing energy consumption, air pollution and CO₂ emissions. This article presents an overview of the transportation measures and initiatives in Singapore, and analyses two of the transport demand management measures in detail: the vehicle restraint measure, in particular the unique vehicle quota system introduced in 1990; and the two road pricing systems, i.e. the area licensing scheme (ALS) that operated from 1974 to 1998, and the electronic road pricing system (ERP) that went into operation in 1998. Energy and environmental impacts are then discussed, and finally factors contributing to the success of these schemes. Although certain conditions are unique to Singapore, the experience shows that substantial energy and environmental benefits can be achieved through managing urban transportation system in an integrated and innovative way.     

CO2-free paper?

Black liquor gasification–combined cycle (BLGCC) is a new technology that has the potential to increase electricity production of a chemical pulping mill. Increased electricity generation in combination with the potential to use biomass (e.g. bark, hog fuel) more efficiently can result in increased power output compared to the conventional Tomlinson-boiler. Because the BLGCC enables an integrated pulp and paper mill to produce excess power, it can offset electricity produced by power plants. This may lead to reduction of the net-CO₂ emissions. The impact of BLGCC to offset CO₂ emissions from the pulp and paper industry is studied. We focus on two different plant designs and compare the situation in Sweden and the US. The CO₂ emissions are studied as function of the share of recycled fibre used to make the paper. The study shows that under specific conditions the production of “CO₂-free paper” is possible. First, energy efficiency in pulp and paper mills needs to be improved to allow the export of sufficient power to offset emissions from fossil fuels used in boilers and other equipment. Secondly, the net-CO₂ emission per ton of paper depends strongly on the emission reduction credits for electricity export, and hence on the country or grid to which the paper mill is connected. Thirdly, supplemental use of biomass to replace fossil fuel inputs is important to reduce the overall emissions of the pulp and paper industry.     

The benefits and costs of reducing emissions from the electricity sector

Recent federal policy proposals to reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), and mercury from the US electricity sector promise important improvements in air quality and reductions in acid deposition. The cost of achieving these reductions depends on the form and stringency of the regulation. In this research, we analyze the economic benefits and costs of the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) as characterized in the supplemental rule proposed in June 2004, and the Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR) as proposed in February 2004. The assessment integrates a model of the electricity sector, two models of atmospheric transport of air pollutants, and a model of environmental and public health endpoints affected by pollution. We model explicitly the emissions of SO(2), NO(x), mercury and carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and the effects of changes in emissions of SO(2) and NO(x) on environmental and public health. The manner in which mercury emissions are regulated will have important implications not only for the cost of the regulation, but also for emission levels for SO(2) and NO(x) and where those emissions are located. We find the economic benefits of CAIR and CAMR are far greater than the costs. Recent estimates of benefits of reductions in mercury and acidification indicate that our model captures the lion's share of quantifiable benefits. We also find that the EPA would have been justified on economic grounds in pursuing additional SO(2) emissions reductions beyond the requirements of CAIR.     

A PARTITIONING PROCEDURE FOR WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT MODELS1

ABSTRACT: An improved computational procedure for solving water quality management models containing interacting pollutants and control policies is presented. The method is developed with respect to the specific problem of minimizing the costs of basin-wide thermal and organic pollution control to meet water quality standards. It views the problem in partitioned form where a master problem is used to find cooling levels for thermal polluters while subproblems determine optimal organic pollutant reductions for fixed cooling levels. A gradient based search procedure is used to solve the master problem. Computational results for several river systems are presented. Application of the method to other water quality management models is suggested.     

PLANNING DIFFUSE POLLUTION CONTROL: AN ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK1

ABSTRACT: Determination of an optimal nonpoint pollution control strategy demands information relating to (1) costs of pollutant reduction, (2) transport of pollutants, (3) water quality impact of pollutants, and (4) the economic impact of water quality changes. This paper briefly reviews the literature in each of these areas and suggests an analytical framework useful in the development of an optimal nonpoint pollutant control strategy.     

Verdant vehicles via viscoelasticity

The combustion of hydrocarbon (HC) fuels in internal combustion (IC) engines is modified by the presence of a few parts per million of megadalton molecular weight elastomers. The viscoelasticity imparted provides: reduced fuel vaporization, lesser back pressure, larger average droplet sizes, and lower combustion chamber temperatures. These effects result in: a reduction of emissions of HC, CO and NO_x of more than 70%, a substantial decrease in the number of particulates from diesel engines, a drop in combustion temperatures of more than 30vv°C, increases in engine power of more than 10%, an improved fuel octane rating, and economies of fuel consumption of more than 20%. The results are magnified during transitions, especially in the lower gears, used more often in urban traffic, where normal fuels emit more pollutants. These effects have a positive public health impact due to reductions in ozone, acid rain, particulates and partially oxidized HC.     

Early action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions before the commitment period of the Kyoto protocol: advantages and disadvantages

Current “business as usual” projections suggest greenhouse gas emissions from industrialized nations will grow substantially over the next decade. However, if it comes into force, the Kyoto Protocol will require industrialized nations to reduce emissions to an average of 5% below 1990 levels in the 2008–2012 period. Taking early action to close this gap has a number of advantages. It reduces the risks of passing thresholds that trigger climate change “surprises.” Early action also increases future generations' ability to choose greater levels of climate protection, and it leads to faster reductions of other pollutants. From an economic sense, early action is important because it allows shifts to less carbon-intensive technologies during the course of normal capital stock turnover. Moreover, many options for emission reduction have negative costs, and thus are economically worthwhile, because of paybacks in energy costs, healthcare costs, and other benefits. Finally, early emission reductions enhance the probability of successful ratification and lower the risk of noncompliance with the protocol. We discuss policy approaches for the period prior to 2008. Disadvantages of the current proposals for Credit for Early Action are the possibility of adverse selection due to problematic baseline calculation methods as well as the distributionary impacts of allocating a part of the emissions budget already before 2008. One simple policy without drawbacks is the so-called baseline protection, which removes the disincentive to early action due to the expectation that businesses may, in the future, receive emission rights in proportion to past emissions. It is particularly important to adopt policies that shift investment in long-lived capital stock towards less carbon-intensive technologies and to encourage innovation and technology development that will reduce future compliance costs.     

浅析攀枝花市2015～2017年气象要素对空气污染的影响

利用2015～2017年攀枝花市污染因子和气象要素实测数据,运用GIS技术、相关分析以及统计分析等方法,分析攀枝花市空气污染因子和气象要素的时空特征及相关性。结果表明:攀枝花市首要污染物为PM₁₀,其次是NO₂;秋冬以PM₁₀和NO₂污染为主,春夏PM₁₀和O₃为主。不同季节,各气象要素对本地空气质量的影响程度及空间分布存在明显差异。弄弄坪一带PM_2.5和SO₂、CO浓度偏高,市中心炳草岗一带PM₁₀、O₃和NO₂浓度偏高。结合本地发展规划和实际情况,根据气象要素分析,为攀枝花市分区分季节的防污减排决策提供气象参考。     

A framework for integrated resource planning in the electric power sector

A framework is presented showing the process of integrated resource planning in the electric power sector. This takes into account the traditional utility planning process, and shows how the use of advanced decision analysis tools would facilitate the integration of demand-side management (DSM) and environmental factors. The concept of influence diagram is introduced in the utility planning arena. Using the interdependent data analysis (IDA) technique, a way is shown to provide the probability estimates necessary for the influence diagram. The IDA technique allows the use of expert opinions and intuitive judgements to develop the necessary probability estimates. A sample case study is presented where the issue of environmental impact from stack emissions is incorporated. A base case coal option is compared against a gas turbine combined cycle (GTCC) alternative. Energy costs from these two options are compared by taking into account the capital, licensing, fuel, operation and maintenance, and emissions related costs.     

Sizing and performance analysis of standalone hybrid photovoltaic/battery/hydrogen storage technology power generation systems based on the energy hub concept

In this study, the optimal sizing and performance analysis of a standalone integrated solar power system equipped with different storage scenarios to supply the power demand of a household is presented. One of the main purposes when applying solar energy resource is to face the increasing environmental pollutions resulting from fossil fuel based electricity sector. To this end, and to compare and examine two energy storage technologies (battery and hydrogen storage technology), three storage scenarios including battery only, hydrogen storage technology only and hybrid storage options are evaluated. An optimization framework based on Energy Hub concept is used to determine the optimum sizes of equipment for the lowest net present cost (NPC) while maintaining the system reliability. It was determined that the most cost effective and reliable case is the system with hybrid storage technology. Also, the effects of solar radiation intensity, the abatement potential of CO₂ emissions and converting excess power to hydrogen on the system’s performance and economics, were investigated and a few noticeable findings were obtained.     

A fresh look at the benefits and costs of the US acid rain program

The US Acid Rain Program (Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments) has achieved substantial reductions in emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) from power plants in the United States. We compare new estimates of the benefits and costs of Title IV to those made in 1990. Important changes in our understanding of and ability to quantify the benefits of Title IV have occurred. Benefits to human health now take a much higher profile because the contribution of SO2 and NOx emissions to the formation of fine particulate (PM2.5) is substantial, and evidence of the harmful human health effects of PM2.5 has emerged in the last 15 years. New estimates of the health benefits of PM2.5 reductions are the largest category of quantified health and environmental benefits and total over 100 billion US dollars annually for 2010 when the program is expected to be fully implemented. Although important uncertainties exist in any specific estimate of the benefits, even if the estimates were calculated using more limiting assumptions and interpretations of the literature they would still substantially exceed the costs. Estimates of annualized costs for 2010 are about 3 billion US dollars, which is less than half of what was estimated in 1990. Research since 1990 also suggests that environmental problems associated with acid deposition and nitrogen deposition are more challenging to resolve than originally thought and will require larger reductions in emissions to reverse. The greater than expected benefits to human health, the greater vulnerability of natural resources and ecosystems, and the lower than expected costs all point to the conclusion that further reductions in SO2 and NOx emissions from power plants beyond those currently required by Title IV are warranted.