Sensitivity analysis of North American bird population estimates

The Partners in Flight North American Landbird Conservation Plan provided estimates of population sizes for 448 landbird species using a multiplicative model. Input parameters in this calculation included the area of state × Bird Conservation Region polygons, area-specific mean Breeding Bird Survey counts circa 1995, and adjustment factors for the distance over which species may presumably be correctly counted, the assumed pairing of singing males with non-singing females, and variability in the propensity of birds to sing over the course of the survey day. I assessed the sensitivity of this population calculation to changes in the input parameters. I assessed both local and global sensitivity of the model to changes in the parameters with Monte Carlo one-at-a-time simulations and the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST). Monte Carlo simulations were an estimate of local model sensitivity whereas FAST estimated global model sensitivity, accommodating the potential shared variance between model parameters. Monte Carlo simulations suggested population estimates were 39% more sensitive to changes in the detection distance adjustment than to the other parameters; the other parameters were nearly equal in their contribution to model sensitivity. Conversely, FAST analysis determined that each of the input variables aside from the pair adjustment provided roughly equal contributions to variability in population estimates. The most efficient means for improving continental population estimates for birds surveyed by the Breeding Bird Survey will be through increased scrutiny of the species-specific distance detection and time-of-day adjustments and improved understanding in the spatial and temporal variability in the mean Breeding Bird Survey count.     

Recovery from blast fishing on coral reefs: a tale of two scales.

Dynamite or "blast" fishing is one of the most immediate and destructive threats to coral reefs worldwide. However, little is known about the long-term ecosystem effects of such blasts or the dynamics of recovery. Here, we examine coral reef recovery in the simplest case of acute single blasts of known age, as well as recovery from chronic blasting over greater spatial and temporal scales. Rubble resulting from single blasts slowly stabilized, and craters filled in with surrounding coral and new colonies. After five years, coral cover within craters no longer differed significantly from control plots. In contrast, extensively bombed areas showed no significant recovery over the six years of this study, despite adequate supply of coral larvae. After extensive blasting, the resulting coral rubble shifts in ocean currents, forming unstable "killing fields" for new recruits. While recently tested rehabilitation methods might be feasible on a small scale, human intervention is unlikely to be effective on large spatial scales, highlighting the need for effective management to prevent blast fishing in the first place.     

Estimation of algal growth parameters from vertical primary production profiles

Phytoplankton maximum growth rate and the saturation light intensity, I_s, can be estimated from vertical profiles of primary production by non-linear least-squares estimation. Solution through the normal equations leads to formulae which are relatively simple and easy to implement. The computation of confidence contours is demonstrated, and the results are contrasted to the confidence limits on the parameters individually. These can be quite misleading due to model non-linearity and correlation between parameter estimation.The procedure has been applied to primary production data from Lake Balaton, a shallow lake in Hungary. The growth rate-temperature relation is analysed by separating the parameters into two groups characteristic for “warm” and “cold” water phytoplankton, respectively. A bell-shaped curve is found for “cold” water communities, with an optimum at about 7–9°C, whereas the “warm” water phytoplankton exhibits a strong exponential dependency in the temperature range of interest (up to 25°C). I_s also appears to be related to temperature except for the “cold” water group, where I_s is essentially constant. However, a roughly linear relation with considerably less scatter is obtained when I_s is plotted directly versus day-averaged solar radiation. This apparent fast adaptation is attributed to the extremely short turnover time in Lake Balaton. Maximum growth rates of 10–20 d^?1 have been found for temperatures between 20 and 25°C. These results and a critical appraisal of available literature suggest that the common notion of maximum growth rates being in the order of 1–3 d^?1 needs revision, at least for lakes with relatively high summer temperatures.     

Dinoflagellate infections of Favella panamensis from two North American estuaries

Favella panamensis Kofoid and Campbell, 1929 is seasonally abundant in meso- to polyhaline waters of Chesapeake Bay and Indian River, Florida, USA, where it reaches densities of 10³ cells l^-1. During the summers of 1986–1992. F. panamensis populations of the two estuaries were commonly infected by the parasitic dinoflagellate Duboscquella aspida Cachon, 1964. The intracellular phase of the parasite reached maturity in 21 h (30 °C) and consumed 35% of the host's biomass. Infections were not typically lethal to F. panamensis, but sometimes forced the host from its lorica. Several D. aspida were found in the cytoplasm of many hosts, and the number of parasites infection^-1 was directly related to infection level. Parasite prevalence averaged 24.0 and 11.5% with mean number of parasites infection^-1 being 1.5 and 1.3 for Chesapeake Bay and Indian River samples, respectively. D. aspida was estimated to remove up to 68% of host standing stock d^-1 with a mean of 10% for all samples. The average impact of parasitism on F. panamensis populations was somewhat less than would be expected from copepod grazing.     

On inferring population trends of mobile waterbirds from aerial transect surveys in variable environments

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - Monitoring waterbird populations in Australia is challenging for reasons of counting logistics, and because population aggregation and dispersion can shift...     

Fertility signaling in queens of a North American ant

In most species of advanced eusocial insects, the partitioning of reproduction between nestmates is thought to be regulated by means of primer pheromones or other chemical cues, which presumably influence the behavior of co-queens and workers such that they maximize their own inclusive fitness. Here we show that in multi-queen colonies of the Nearctic ant, Leptothorax sp. A, physical dominance in concert with chemical cues, which signal the ovarian development of a queen, are used to control reproduction of competing queens and to influence worker behavior. The analysis of ranks obtained during two fighting periods in the annual colony cycle revealed a strong link between individual aggressiveness of a queen and her fertility. During the adoption of newly mated queens in autumn, the resident, egg-laying α-queen was more likely to start aggression first and keep her high rank position compared to the fighting period after hibernation. We suggest that this is proximately caused by the α-queen having much stronger developed ovaries in autumn than the young queens, whereas after hibernation, the ovaries of all queens are similarly inactive. Interactions during the first weeks after the end of hibernation and intrinsic, individual differences in aggressiveness appear to be crucial for the dominance rank achieved later. Queens which were allowed to become fertile when their nestmate queens still were kept under prolonged hibernation, were immediately socially dominant over the latter when all queens were reunited, though no aggression occurred. In another experiment, queen antagonism was prevented by spatial separation in different parts of the same nest and all queens began to lay eggs. Workers stayed preferentially with queens with high actual fecundity rather than with those which had had high social status before separation. This and further evidence suggest that ovarian status is communicated, most likely by a chemical cue perceived by co-queens and workers, affects the direction of their aggressive behavior, and allows them to discriminate among queens. Received: 5 May 1998 / Accepted after revision: 29 August 1998     

Breeding Distributions of North American Bird Species Moving North as a Result of Climate Change

Abstract:  Geographic changes in species distributions toward traditionally cooler climes is one hypothesized indicator of recent global climate change. We examined distribution data on 56 bird species. If global warming is affecting species distributions across the temperate northern hemisphere, these data should show the same northward range expansions of birds that have been reported for Great Britain. Because a northward shift of distributions might be due to multidirectional range expansions for multiple species, we also examined the possibility that birds with northern distributions may be expanding their ranges southward. There was no southward expansion of birds with a northern distribution, indicating that there is no evidence of overall range expansion of insectivorous and granivorous birds in North America. As predicted, the northern limit of birds with a southern distribution showed a significant shift northward (2.35 km/year). This northward shift is similar to that observed in previous work conducted in Great Britain: the widespread nature of this shift in species distributions over two distinct geographical regions and its coincidence with a period of global warming suggests a connection with global climate change.     

河网水质数学模型的参数估算

本文以无锡县河网水质数学模型的参数估算为例，根据河流的性质、水流特征、污染源的类型，选择５条河流进行现场观测，综合考虑不同河流的分析结果，研究了适用于平原河网水质数学模型的参数估算的方法。     

Estimation of kinship parameters: the island model with separate sexes

Summary Information from pedigrees provides the most accurate means of estimating relatedness within and between social groups, but the method has the disadvantage of requiring longterm breeding records. If a regular system of mating occurs, then kinship parameters may be estimated from recurrence relations which decribe the change in coancestry and inbreeding from generation to generation. Breeding records collected over a single generation are therefore sufficient. In this paper the island model is used for the derivation of general expression of the coancestry and inbreeding coefficients in a dioecious population with non-overlapping generations. An equation for the average coefficient of coancestry (f ^JJ ) within a juvenile cohort is first found, and the other coefficients are then easily obtained. Parameters required are the inbreeding effective numbers of male and female parents and the migration rates of the two sexes. — In species with overlapping generations, the average coefficient of coancestry of the juvenile cohort is not related simply by migration rates to the average coancestries of the adult classes. The difference arises because average coancestry between pairs of individuals chosen from different cohorts is not in general the same as that between pairs of the same cohort. The precise difference depends on the mating system and cohort structure of the social group. Suitable modification to the basic expression for f ^JJ is described. The use of the composite method is illustrated by reference to the social units of two large mammals: prides of lion and clans of impala.     

Integrated model projections of climate change impacts on a North American lake

Climate change is likely to impact terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems via numerous physical and biological mechanisms. This study outlines a framework for projecting potential impacts of climate change on lakes using linked environmental models. Impacts of climate drivers on catchment hydrology and thermal balance in Onondaga Lake (New York State) are simulated using mechanistic models HSPF and UFILS4. Outputs from these models are fed into a lake ecosystem model, developed in AQUATOX. Watershed simulations project increases in the magnitude of peak flows and consequent increases in catchment nutrient export as the magnitude of extreme precipitation events increases. This occurs concurrently with a decrease in annual stream discharge as a result of increased evapotranspiration. Simulated lake water temperatures increase by as much as 5 °C during the 2040-2069 time period, accompanied by a prolonging of the duration of summer stratification. Projected changes include shifts in the timing of nutrient cycling between lake sediments and water column. Plankton taxa projected to thrive under climate change include green algae and Bosmina longirostris. Responses for species at higher trophic levels are mixed. Benthic macroinvertebrates may either prosper (zebra mussels) or decline (chironomids), while fish (e.g., gizzard shad) exhibit high seasonal variability without any clear trend.     

Estimation of population density by spatially explicit capture-recapture analysis of data from area searches

The recent development of capture-recapture methods for estimating animal population density has focused on passive detection using devices such as traps or automatic cameras. Some species lend themselves more to active searching: a polygonal plot may be searched repeatedly and the locations of detected individuals recorded, or a plot may be searched just once and multiple cues (feces or other sign) identified as belonging to particular individuals. This report presents new likelihood-based spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) methods for such data. The methods are shown to be at least as robust in simulations as an equivalent Bayesian analysis, and to have negligible bias and near-nominal confidence interval coverage with parameter values from a lizard data set. It is recommended on the basis of simulation that plots for SECR should be at least as large as the home range of the target species. The R package "secr" may be used to fit the models. The likelihood-based implementation extends the spatially explicit analyses available for search data to include binary data (animal detected or not detected on each occasion) or count data (multiple detections per occasion) from multiple irregular polygons, with or without dependence among polygons. It is also shown how the method may be adapted for detections along a linear transect.     

North American vegetation model for land-use planning in a changing climate: a solution to large classification problems

Data points intensively sampling 46 North American biomes were used to predict the geographic distribution of biomes from climate variables using the Random Forests classification tree. Techniques were incorporated to accommodate a large number of classes and to predict the future occurrence of climates beyond the contemporary climatic range of the biomes. Errors of prediction from the statistical model averaged 3.7%, but for individual biomes, ranged from 0% to 21.5%. In validating the ability of the model to identify climates without analogs, 78% of 1528 locations outside North America and 81% of land area of the Caribbean Islands were predicted to have no analogs among the 46 biomes. Biome climates were projected into the future according to low and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios of three General Circulation Models for three periods, the decades surrounding 2030, 2060, and 2090. Prominent in the projections were (1) expansion of climates suitable for the tropical dry deciduous forests of Mexico, (2) expansion of climates typifying desertscrub biomes of western USA and northern Mexico, (3) stability of climates typifying the evergreen-deciduous forests of eastern USA, and (4) northward expansion of climates suited to temperate forests, Great Plains grasslands, and montane forests to the detriment of taiga and tundra climates. Maps indicating either poor agreement among projections or climates without contemporary analogs identify geographic areas where land management programs would be most equivocal. Concentrating efforts and resources where projections are more certain can assure land managers a greater likelihood of success.     

Sensitivity of population viability to spatial and nonspatial parameters using GRIP.

Metapopulation dynamics are influenced by spatial parameters including the amount and arrangement of suitable habitat, yet these parameters may be uncertain when deciding how to manage species or their habitats. Sensitivity analyses of population viability analysis (PVA) models can help measure relative parameter influences on predictions, identify research priorities for reducing uncertainty, and evaluate management strategies. Few spatial PVAs, however, include sensitivity analyses of both spatial and nonspatial parameters, perhaps because computationally efficient tools for such analyses are lacking or inaccessible. We developed GRIP, a program to facilitate sensitivity analysis of spatial and nonspatial input parameters for PVAs created in RAMAS Metapop, a widely applied software program. GRIP creates random sets of input files by varying parameters specified in the PVA model including vital rates and their correlations among populations, the number and configuration of populations, dispersal rates, dispersal survival, initial population abundances, carrying capacities, and the probability, intensity, and spatial extent of catastrophes, while drawing on specified parameter distributions. We evaluated GRIP's performance as a tool for sensitivity analysis of spatial PVAs and explored the consequences of varying spatial input parameters for predictions of a published PVA model of the sand lizard (Lacerta agilis). We used GRIP output to generate standardized regression coefficients (SRCs) and nonparametric correlation coefficients as indices of the relative sensitivity of predicted conservation status to input parameters. GRIP performed well; with a single analysis we were able to rank the relative influence of input parameters identified as influential by the PVA's original author, S. A. Berglind, who used three separate forms of sensitivity analysis. Our analysis, however, also underscored the value of exploring the relative influence of spatial parameters on PVA predictions; both SRCs and correlation coefficients indicated that the most influential parameters in the sand lizard model were spatial in nature. We provide annotated code so that GRIP may be modified to reflect particular species biology, customized for more complex spatial PVA models, upgraded to incorporate features added in newer versions of RAMAS Metapop, used as a template to develop similar programs, or used as it is for computationally efficient sensitivity analyses in support of conservation planning.     

Estimation of birth rate and juvenile mortality from observed numbers of juveniles in a mammal population with normally dispersed reproduction

The increase in the number of juveniles in a mammal population with a normally dispersed reproduction is simulated using a computer. The effect of juvenile mortality and its age-dependency on the recruitment curve is discussed. The maximum number of juveniles is reached before all juveniles are born. The ratio of the period of time between the beginning of the reproduction period and the maximum of juveniles and of births (the coefficient of reduction of the apparent reproduction period) is related to the juvenile mortality rate and the ratio of the maximum number of juveniles to the total number of births. These relationships can be used to estimate the total number of births and the juvenile mortality rate from a series of counts of the juveniles. The simulation model used is programmed in CSMP-III.     

Estimation of the CDF of a finite population in the presence of acalibration sample

We compare the performance of a number of estimators of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) for the following scenario: imperfect measurements are taken on an initial sample from afinite population and perfect measurements are obtained on a small calibration subset of the initial sample. The estimators we considered include two naive estimators using perfect and imperfect measurements; the ratio, difference and regression estimators for a two-phasesample; a minimum MSE estimator; Stefanski and Bay's SIMEX estimator (1996); and two proposed estimators. The proposed estimators take the form of a weighted average of perfect and imperfect measurements. They are constructed by minimizing variance among the class of weighted averages subject to an unbiasedness constraint. They differ in the manner of estimating the weight parameters. The first one uses direct sample estimates. The second one tunes the unknown parameters to an underlying normal distribution. We compare the root mean square error (RMSE) of the proposed estimator against other potential competitors through computer simulations. Our simulations show that our second estimator has the smallest RMSE among thenine compared and that the reduction in RMSE is substantial when the calibration sample is small and the error is medium or large.     

Hydroclimatic variability drives episodic expansion of a floating peat mat in a North American kettlehole basin

The coming century is predicted to feature enhanced climatic variability, including increased frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme climatic events. Ecologists are faced with the critical challenge of anticipating potentially nonlinear ecosystem responses to these changes. High-resolution paleoecological data sets that capture past ecosystem responses to climate variability provide valuable long-term perspectives on the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate-forced state shifts. We used a suite of paleoecological analyses at Titus Bog in northwestern Pennsylvania, USA, to test the hypothesis that the development and expansion of floating peatlands in kettlehole basins represents a threshold response to hydroclimate variability. In contrast with expectations of gradual autogenic peat mat expansion, our results indicate that peat mat expansion at Titus Bog was highly episodic and occurred in three distinct pulses centered on 800, 650, and 400 cal yr BP. Each of these expansion events coincided with or immediately followed decadal-to-mutlidecadal droughts recorded in regional paleoclimate reconstructions. These patterns indicate that peatland development in kettlehole basins can follow nonlinear trajectories, with episodes of rapid advancement triggered by climatic forcing. Future climate changes may increase the likelihood of peatland expansion in kettlehole basins, potentially leading to abrupt changes in adjacent lake ecosystems.     

Zooplankton population model coupled to a biogeochemical model of the North Western Mediterranean Sea ecosystem

A stage structured population (SSP) model based on Fennel's [Fennel, W., 2001. Modelling copepods with links to circulation models. Journal of Plankton Research, 23, 1217–1232] equations is applied to Centropages typicus (Kröyer), a dominant copepod species of the North Western Mediterranean Sea (NWMS) and a prey of small pelagic fish. The model considers five groups of stages and development rates are represented by a mechanistic formulation depending on individual specific growth in each stage. Individual growth is calculated from the individual energy budget depending on food availability and temperature.     

Feeding ecology of a size-structured predator population,the South American sun-star Heliaster helianthus

Patterns of feeding in a population of Heliaster helianthus (Lamarck), a common and dominant species of starfish indigenous to the Pacific South American coast, were investigated in an intertidal habitat in central Peru from October 1986 to April 1987. The H. helianthus population comprised individuals of 3.5 to 30.2 cm body size (diameter) with two modal size classes. The number of rays ranged between 18 and 40, and individuals with 31 to 33 rays accounted for ca. 42% of the total population. There was a higher rate of increase in ray number with body size amongst small individuals(<13.0 cm diam). H. helianthus is capable of feeding on more than one prey item at a time (average of 5.6 to 13.2 prey items handled, with several predators observed to hold >100), and both the number of prey individuals captured and the total prey biomass were significantly correlated with predator size. Amongst a total of 1132 feeding observations, the largest number of predators (an average of 85.4% of those feeding) were preying on the mussel Semimytilus algosus whilst another mussel, Perumytilus purpuratus, ranked second with 21,9% of predators feeding. The proportion of S. algosus in the diet increased from 65.4% in the smallest predator size-group (10.9 cm diam) to 91.2% in the largest (19.0 cm). In contrast, P. purpuratus and barnacles were more highly represented in the diet of small H. helianthus. The smallest size-group (10.9 cm) had low dietary overlap with larger sizes and less specialized prey utilization. Two geographically separated populations of H. helianthus in Peru and Chile showed contrasting patterns of prey utilization. S. algosus and P. purpuratus comprised 85.5 and 6.5% by number in the diet of the Peruvian population, respectively, whilst corresponding figures for the Chilean population were 8.3 and 60.5%, with barnacles attaining a higher share (22.6%). However, the total number of prey individuals per feeding predator was almost the same in Peru and Chile, with 10.0 and 10.7 individuals, respectively. H. helianthus individuals of different sizes occupy slightly different microhabitats within the intertidal area, which, coupled with differential spatial distribution of prey species, results in the predator population being able to utilize a wide range of resources.     

Seasonal variation in some population parameters of Euchaeta species (copepoda: Calanoida)

Studies of the biology of oceanic copepods are few relative to those of coastal species. Females of the genus Euchaeta have spermatophores attached to the genital somite by the male and carry their broods of eggs attached to this somite, so defining the breeding season. Populations of E. norvegica in the fjordic environment of Loch Etive (collected between 1971 and 1974 and from 1978 to 1979), Scotland and in the marginal oceanic region of the Rockall Trough, northeastern Atlantic Ocean (collected between 1973 and 1976) and of a further eight species of Euchaeta in the Trough are examined. Seasonal changes in the incidence of egg masses and spermatophores attached to the females, sex ratio and population numbers are determined. Sampling errors in the estimation of these parameters are larger in the oceanic Rockall Trough. The Loch Etive populations of E. norvegica produce two generations per year with a proportion, variable between years, of the population producing a third generation. This species produces a single annual generation in the Rockall Trough as do E. acuta and E. pseudotonsa. Two generations per year are probably passed through by E. gracilis in the Trough while the large bathypelagic E. sarsi may produce a single generation in the autumn of every second year. The other bathypelagic species, E. barbata, E. scotti, E. abbreviata and E. longissima, breed continuously throughout the year and no estimate of their generation times is possible. Consequently, this approach to population analysis is useful where breeding is seasonal, but resolving generation time in bathypelagic crustaceans remains a problem.     

中国农业排放源甲烷排放量的估算

本文在收集大量资料的基础上,采用IPCC推荐的计算方法对中国农业排放源的甲烷排放量进行了较为详细的估算。分别得出了中国稻田甲烷排放量、家养动物甲烷排放量和农业残留物甲烷排放量。