应对闽南4市地震损失的金融手段

随着我国经济和社会的快速发展,人口和财富的密度越来越高,地震造成的损失也越来越严重。应用金融手段可以使地震风险与资本市场充分融合,缓解其给个人和社会造成的冲击。依据闽南地区4个重要城市的震害预测成果,讨论了如何应用地震保险和巨灾债券等金融手段减轻泉州海外未来大地震可能造成的损失。     

巨灾债券与政府灾害救助

发生概率小而损失巨大的巨灾无疑对国民经济有着重要的影响。我国幅员辽阔，尽管每年灾害的性质和发生地点不同，但是损失总量和政府救灾的支付总量却是一个稳定的大数，然而依然不能满足救灾与恢复生产的需要。借鉴经济发达国家保险业的巨灾债券，首次提出在政府救灾中引入市场机制——发行政府巨灾债券。这对于投资者是收益高的风险投资，对于政府可以减轻公共财政负担，而对于受灾地区则可以获得更多的资金支援，加快恢复生产，保证经济增长的稳定性。     

我国建立巨灾保险制度探析

随着我国经济的发展,巨灾对我国经济和社会造成的影响越来越大,也引起了学术界和社会各界的关注。首先探讨了我国建立巨灾保险制度的必要性和可行性,接着在借鉴美、日等国家巨灾保险经验的基础上,提出了发展我国巨灾保险的几点思考。     

从印度洋地震海啸看中国的巨灾风险

2004年12月26日印度洋海啸给沿岸国家造成了严重灾难,其主要原因是缺乏必要的防范。中国历史上巨灾频发,今后仍存在比较严重的巨灾威胁。预测我国有11个巨灾高风险区,巨灾种类主要为特大洪水、大地震、强台风和特大风暴潮以及大区域持续性严重干旱。建立巨灾防御体系是今后我国减灾工作的重心。     

基于工程地震风险评估的地震保险费率厘定

着重探讨了如何将我国许多城市已完成的工程地震风险评估结果用于厘定地震保险费率,具体提出了地震房屋保险、地震室内财产保险和地震人身保险费率的厘定方法,对应不同的免赔率定义提出了赔偿金额的计算方法.为了说明所提方法的实用性,以某地的多层砌体房屋为例,对设计的几种免赔率,计算了相应的费率.     

巨灾保险衍生品

巨灾保险衍生品将巨灾风险引入资本市场，扩大了巨灾保险的融资渠道，增加了保险市场的承保能力，已经成为巨灾保险的重要补充手段之一。系统总结了巨灾保险衍生品的发展过程，介绍了几种较常见的巨灾保险衍生品。由于我国巨灾保险正处于探索阶段，建议借鉴发达国家和地区的巨灾风险管理经验，将巨灾保险衍生品作为补充手段，推动我国巨灾保险的发展。     

第三届大陆地震紧急救援暨巨灾保险国际会议在北京召开

2004年7月12—14日第三届大陆地震紧急救援暨巨灾保险国际会议在北京召开。中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理回良玉出席了开幕式并在会前亲切接见了出席会议的部分中外代表。     

巨灾风险评估模型的发展与研究

巨灾已经成为全球经济损失的重要原因之一。近20年来,巨灾频繁发生,造成了重大的人员伤亡和财产损失,巨灾的发生甚至可能造成国家政治经济的不稳定。因此如何进行巨灾风险管理并减轻巨灾事件发生后所造成的损害,便成为一个相当重要的研究课题。巨灾风险评估模型作为应对巨灾风险最为有效的分析工具,近20年来得到了长足的发展,同时巨灾模型已成为巨灾保险设立的根本依据。对巨灾模型的发展与模型构架进行了综述,并结合我国的实际情况提出了一些建议。     

基于事件法研究巨灾对我国上市公司的影响——以汶川8.0级地震为例

采用事件法分析了2008年汶川8.0级地震对四川省上市公司的影响。首先,选取建筑、电力、化工行业上市公司为样本,计算分析样本上市公司股票日平均异常收益率(AR)和累积异常收益率(CAR)的波动情况,然后对其进行检验;结果表明:地震灾害对不同行业上市公司的影响时间和程度都不尽相同,对建筑行业上市公司有正面影响,对电力行业和化工行业上市公司有较大负面影响。最后,总结分析巨灾对上市公司影响,借鉴国外经验,考虑我国巨灾风险管理国情,提出构建我国上市公司巨灾风险管理建议。     

华北及邻近地区的巨灾链

对华北及其邻近地区自清代以来特大地震和水灾构成的4次巨灾链进行了介绍,并初步探讨了它们的形成机制、预测指标及减灾对策。     

Application of catastrophe loss modelling to promote property insurance in developing countries

Many mega cities in developing countries are exposed to the sources of natural catastrophes, particularly seismic activity. A high level of seismic hazard in some of these places, coupled with a relatively high degree of vulnerability within the built environment, can result in dire human and economic consequences. This paper contains examples of such potentially disruptive factors in relation to Tehran, Iran. It presents preliminary seismic loss estimates for residential buildings in a pilot area of northern Tehran. The paper briefly investigates the effectiveness of risk management measures and loss compensation mechanisms before assessing the feasibility of an insurance‐based risk transfer instrument for managing potential seismic losses among residential buildings in Tehran. It goes on to suggest how probabilistic catastrophe loss modelling can help local insurers to manage their portfolios and facilitate risk sharing among insurance companies and households. Finally, the paper addresses the question of how catastrophe loss modelling can help to strengthen the penetration of property insurance in developing countries.     

Disaster risk insurance and catastrophe models in risk‐prone small Caribbean islands

Post‐catastrophe recovery and financial liquidity have long challenged small Caribbean islands. These states are vulnerable to multifarious natural hazards that often cause considerable socioeconomic dislocation. Such events inflict heavy losses on businesses and households, and significantly disrupt all aspects of government operations. After Hurricane Ivan devastated the economies of some islands in September 2004—with estimated losses of as much as 200 per cent of gross domestic product in some cases—regional governments, aided by the World Bank and international donors, approved the creation of a regional catastrophe insurance scheme. This parametric‐based mechanism is underpinned by derivatives‐based catastrophe modelling whose outputs determine policy triggers and pay outs. Hazard models, particularly catastrophe models, are not widely accepted as yet. Despite recent advancements, major concerns have rendered them peripheral tools for many establishments. This paper reviews the region's vulnerabilities and examines constraints on the application of these models and suggests a means of improving their efficacy and acceptability.     

巨灾后幸存者心理恢复力初步探究——以1976年唐山地震为例

地震巨灾灾后幸存者如何恢复正常的生产、生活,是灾后救助的重点。在唐山地震30周年之际,对地震幸存者进行了实地调查访问,结合个体的灾情背景与城市重建、生产生活恢复的过程,分析了地震巨灾幸存者灾后心理恢复力的影响因子。调查结果显示,灾害影响具备整体共性与个体差异性的特点。通过分析实地调查数据,亲人伤亡程度、个体损伤情况、住房恢复状况是对灾民心理恢复力影响较大的3个因子。以家人平安为对照组,对家人轻伤、重伤和死亡3个研究组进行了比较;以自身安全者为对照组,对受压埋者和逃出建筑物者两个研究组进行了比较;以灾后6个月内搬进简易房为对照组,对六个月内尚未搬进简易房的研究组进行了比较。分析认为,家庭破裂、亲人失散会造成心理恢复极大的障碍,社会需要关怀失去亲人的灾民,尤其是孤儿;灾民消极态度与自身受伤程度明显正相关,随着身体的康复,灾民心理也能较快恢复;从地震棚搬入简易房的时间长短直接影响着灾民的情绪稳定。对幸存者的灾后恢复研究有助于灾后救助和社会安定,为灾害管理提供依据。     

中国未来10～15年地震灾害的风险评估

中国是世界上地震灾害损失最严重的国家之一，全国５０％以上的城市和７０％左右的大中城市位于７度及以上烈度区内．地震的发生给中国社会带来了很大的危害和损失，主要的损失分布在以北京为中心的首都圈地区和云南－四川－陕西－内蒙古相连的南北带上，另外新疆的西北部也是地震损失较大的地区．所谓地震灾害风险是指建立在各地防震减灾能力基础上的未来地震损失估汁，风险的特征是具有一定的不确定性．从中国的实际情况来看，东部沿海地区、首都圈地区及内陆的个别地区防震减灾能力较强，而未来地震危险性则以中国西部地区和华北地区为主．通过对中国未来１０—１５年地震风险的研究，可以认为，中国的东部地区虽然有一定的地震危险性，但由于其经济发达，减灾能力很强，因此未来地震造成巨大损失的风险较小；中国的中部（南北带）和西部地区地震危险性很大，同时经济欠发达，减灾能力较差，因此未来地震造成巨大损失的风险很大．     

Effects of seismic intensity and socioeconomic status on injury and displacement after the 2007 Peru earthquake

Earthquakes are a major cause of displacement, particularly in developing countries. Models of injury and displacement can be applied to assist governments and aid organisations in effectively targeting preparedness and relief efforts. A stratified cluster survey was conducted in January 2008 to evaluate risk factors for injury and displacement following the 15 August 2007 earthquake in southern Peru. In statistical modelling, seismic intensity, distance to rupture, living conditions, and educational attainment collectively explained 54.9 per cent of the variability in displacement rates across clusters. Living conditions was a particularly significant predictor of injury and displacement, indicating a strong relationship between risk and socioeconomic status. Contrary to expectations, urban, periurban, and rural clusters did not exhibit significantly different injury and displacement rates. Proxies of socioeconomic status, particularly the living conditions index score, proved relevant in explaining displacement, likely due to unmeasured aspects of housing construction practices and building materials.     

Understanding the interacting factors that influence social vulnerability: a case study of the 2016 central Italy earthquake

This paper seeks to identify those areas that proved socially vulnerable to the earthquake that struck central Italy on 24 August 2016. The study involved four key steps. First, six relevant social vulnerability indicators were selected, based on previous conclusions in the literature. Second, the indicators were mapped using the inverse distance weighted interpolation method. Third, social vulnerability was assessed according to a spatial combination of the indicators. Fourth, in order to build a heterogeneity map, another approach was employed to represent the spatial variability of social vulnerability and to provide additional information on the synergistic contributions of the indicators. The results indicate that age and accessibility indicators affect the entire region under review, with highly vulnerable zones being close to small historical centres. These findings will be useful to governments, policymakers, and stakeholders with regard to implementing vulnerability mitigation strategies in Italian territories that are highly susceptible to earthquake hazards.