The extraordinary events of the major,sudden stratospheric warming,the diminutive antarctic ozone hole,and its split in 2002

GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUND: Great interest in the unprecedented events of the major, sudden stratospheric warming and the ozone hole split over Antarctica in September 25, 2002 motivates a necessity to analyze the current understanding on the dynamics, chemistry and climate impacts that are associated with both events. METHODS: Significant progress in the analysis of the observational data obtained, as well as successful development and application of dynamical modeling, which have been achieved very recently, create a basis for the first survey on the role of the major, sudden stratospheric warming observed in the southern hemisphere and its relationship to the diminutive Antarctic ozone hole and its break up into two parts. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Special attention has been paid to assessments of the causes of the major warming event and the future expectations concerning the stratospheric ozone depletion effect. Among the principal results is the fact that, as the polar vortex elongated, it became hydrodynamically unstable, and this insta-, bility affected the upper troposphere and stratosphere. During the major, sudden stratospheric warming, the middle stratospheric vortex split into two pieces; one piece rapidly mixed with extra vortex air, while the other returned to the pole as a much weaker and smaller vortex. The polar night jet was considerably weaker than normal, and was displaced more poleward than has been observed in previous winters, resulting from a series of wave events (propagated from the troposphere) that took place over the course of the winter. Finally, the relative ozone decrease (increase) in the eastern Antarctic is tightly associated with westerly (easterly) zonal wind anomalies near the southern tip of South America, and the unusual behavior of the ozone hole in 2002 therefore appears to be caused by great easterlies in this region. CONCLUSIONS: The main conclusion is that the southern polar vortex and the diminutive ozone hole split into two parts in September 2002, due to the prevalence of very strong planetary waves, led to the appearance of a major, sudden stratospheric warming. Although there is evidence that sea surface temperature anomalies contributed to the excitation of the quite strong planetary waves over Antarctica in 2002, there is not yet a widely approved mechanism supporting that. RECOMMENDATIONS AND OUTLOOK:The appearance of the near-record size of the 2003 ozone hole confirmed that the 'no-ozone-hole' episode observed in the year 2002 does not denote a recovery of the ozone layer. Despite the current successful attempts to get a sufficient understanding for the genesis of both extraordinary events, more observations and further modeling efforts are necessary to more reliably assess the contribution of various dynamic mechanisms to the recently observed tropo-stratospheric surprises.     

The significance of PCBs in the atmosphere of the southern hemisphere

Air monitoring stations were set up at 2 sites in the southern hemisphere--Moody Brook, Falkland Island (51 degrees 25' S, 57 degrees 56' W) and Halley, Research Station, Antarctica (75 degrees 35' S, 26 degrees 30' W). PCBs were monitored at the stations throughout 1999. Highest concentrations were observed when temperatures were greater. In general, concentrations were greater at Moody Brook than at Halley, although the difference in concentrations between sites was less for more chlorinated congeners. Air concentrations at both sites were compared with samples collected nearby over-water. Over water air concentrations were found to be greater than over land air concentrations. Concentrations were also compared with literature data for air concentrations at a remote site in the Canadian Arctic. Atmospheric concentrations of tri-chlorinated biphenyls were found to be approximately double those reported for Ellesmere Island in the Canadian Arctic, whilst concentrations in samples from Antarctica were very similar to those found in the high Arctic. Most other PCBs were a factor of 2-4 greater in the Canadian Arctic.     

The effects of UVB radiation on temperate southern hemisphere forests

The temperate forests of the southern hemisphere are the most likely forests to be affected by increased levels of ultraviolet-B (UVB) radiation resulting from reduced ozone. The review describes these forests and then discusses the morphological changes, physiological effects, and protection mechanisms, particularly UV absorbing compounds that result from present day and increasing UVB radiation. Possible avenues for future research are explored.     

Impact of downward-mixing ozone on surface ozone accumulation in southern Taiwan

The ozone that initially presents in the previous day's afternoon mixing layer can remain in the nighttime atmosphere and then be carried over to the next morning. Finally, this ozone can be brought to the ground by downward mixing as mixing depth increases during the daytime, thereby increasing surface ozone concentrations. Variation of ozone concentration during each of these periods is investigated in this work. First, ozone concentrations existing in the daily early morning atmosphere at the altitude range of the daily maximum mixing depth (residual ozone concentrations) were measured using tethered ozonesondes on 52 experimental days during 2004-2005 in southern Taiwan. Daily downward-mixing ozone concentrations were calculated by a box model coupling the measured daily residual ozone concentrations and daily mixing depth variations. The ozone concentrations upwind in the previous day's afternoon mixing layer were estimated by the combination of back air trajectory analysis and known previous day's surface ozone distributions. Additionally, the relationship between daily downward-mixing ozone concentration and daily photochemically produced ozone concentration was examined. The latter was calculated by removing the former from daily surface maximum ozone concentration. The measured daily residual ozone concentrations distributed at 12-74 parts per billion (ppb) with an average of 42 +/- 17 ppb are well correlated with the previous upwind ozone concentration (R2 = 0.54-0.65). Approximately 60% of the previous upwind ozone was estimated to be carried over to the next morning and became the observed residual ozone. The daily downward-mixing ozone contributes 48 +/- 18% of the daily surface maximum ozone concentration, indicating that the downward-mixing ozone is as important as daily photochemically produced ozone to daily surface maximum ozone accumulation. The daily downward-mixing ozone is poorly correlated with the daily photochemically produced ozone and contributes significantly to the daily variation of surface maximum ozone concentrations (R2 = 0.19). However, the contribution of downward-mixing ozone to daily ozone variation is not included in most existing statistical models developed for predicting daily ozone variation. Finally, daily surface maximum ozone concentration is positively correlated with daily afternoon mixing depth, attributable to the downward-mixing ozone.     

Polymer types ingested by northern fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis) and southern hemisphere relatives

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Although ingestion of plastic by tubenosed seabirds has been documented regularly, identification of the polymer composition of these plastics has...     

Meteorologically adjusted long-term trend of ground-level ozone concentrations in Kaohsiung County,southern Taiwan

Since meteorological changes strongly affect ambient ozone concentrations, trends in concentrations of ozone upon the adjustment of meteorological variations are important of evaluating emission reduction efforts. The goal of this work is to study meteorological effects on the long-term trends of ozone concentration using a multi-variable additive model. Data on the hourly concentrations of ozone were collected from four air-quality stations from 1997 to 2006 in Kaohsiung County to determine the monthly, seasonal and annual average concentrations of ozone. The model incorporates seven meteorological parameters – pressure, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, duration of sunshine and cloud cover. The simulated results show that the long-term ozone concentration increases at 13.84% (or 13.06%) monthly (or annually) after meteorological adjustments, less than at 26.10% (or 23.80%) without meteorological adjustments. Wind speed, duration of sunshine and pressure are the three dominant factors that influence the ground-level ozone levels.     

Trends in meteorologically adjusted ozone concentrations in six Kentucky metro areas, 1998-2002

Meteorologically adjusted ozone (O3) concentrations during five recent O3 seasons (1998-2002) were computed for six Kentucky metro areas using a nonlinear regression model originally developed for forecasting ground-level O3 concentrations. The meteorological adjustment procedure was based on modifying actual measured O3 concentrations according to model-predicted responses to climate departures with respect to a reference year. For all six Kentucky metro areas, meteorologically adjusted O3 concentrations declined over the five-year period. The linear best-fit rate of decline in mean adjusted O3 concentrations ranged from 0.9 to 2.6 ppb/yr for these metro areas; the average rate of decline was 1.6 ppb/yr. The rates of decline in meteorologically adjusted extreme value (e.g., 95th percentile) concentrations were approximately the same, but there is greater statistical uncertainty concerning the extreme value trends.     

Field responses of Prunus serotina and Asclepias syriaca to ozone around southern Lake Michigan

Higher ozone concentrations east of southern Lake Michigan compared to west of the lake were used to test hypotheses about injury and growth effects on two plant species. We measured approximately 1000 black cherry trees and over 3000 milkweed stems from 1999 to 2001 for this purpose. Black cherry branch elongation and milkweed growth and pod formation were significantly higher west of Lake Michigan while ozone injury was greater east of Lake Michigan. Using classification and regression tree (CART) analyses we determined that departures from normal precipitation, soil nitrogen and ozone exposure/peak hourly concentrations were the most important variables affecting cherry branch elongation, and milkweed stem height and pod formation. The effects of ozone were not consistently comparable with the effects of soil nutrients, weather, insect or disease injury, and depended on species. Ozone SUM06 exposures greater than 13 ppm-h decreased cherry branch elongation 18%; peak 1-h exposures greater than 93 ppb reduced milkweed stem height 13%; and peak 1-h concentrations greater than 98 ppb reduced pod formation 11% in milkweed.     

Preliminary assessment of risk of ozone impacts to maize (Zea mays) in southern Africa

Surface ozone concentrations in southern Africa exceed air quality guidelines set to protect agricultural crops. This paper addresses a knowledge gap by performing a preliminary assessment of potential ozone impacts on vegetation in southern African. Maize (Zea mays L.) is the receptor of interest in the main maize producing countries, i.e. South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Surface ozone concentrations are estimated for the growing season (October to April) using photochemical modelling. Hourly mean modelled ozone concentrations ranged between 19.7 and 31.2 ppb, while maximums range between 28.9 and 61.9 ppb, and are near 30 ppb over South Africa and Zambia, while in Zimbabwe, they exceed 40 ppb and translate into monthly AOT40 values of over 3,000 ppb h in five of the seven months of the growing season. This study suggests that surface ozone may pose a threat to agricultural production in southern African, particularly in Zimbabwe.     

Growth response of bigcone Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga macrocarpa) to long-term ozone exposure in southern California

Long-term radial growth of bigcone Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga macrocarpa) was studied throughout its range in the San Bernardino Mountains of southern California, where ambient ozone has been high for approximately the past 40 years. A gradient of both ozone concentration and precipitation exists from west (high) to east (low). Growth rates of bigcone Douglas fir are considerably lower since 1950 throughout the San Bernardino Mountains, with the largest growth reductions in the western part of the range where ozone exposure is highest. Needle retention is also somewhat lower at high ozone sites. Lower annual precipitation since 1950 may have some impact on long-term growth reductions, and short-term growth reductions induced by drought are an important component of long-term growth reductions at sites with high ozone exposure. An ozone-climate stress complex may be responsible for recent reductions in the growth of bigcone Douglas fir.     

The stratospheric ozone layer-an overview

This paper summarises the knowledge on the properties of the stratospheric ozone layer. Dynamic, chemical, and microphysical aspects are reviewed with emphasis on chemistry. The questions addressed are as follows. Do we have a quantitative understanding of the Antarctic ozone hole? What lies behind the trend of slowly decreasing ozone columns over northern mid-latitudes? To what degree was chemistry responsible for the extremely low ozone levels over northern Europe in January 1992? The discovery of the ozone hole in 1985 exposed scientific neglect of the category of fast heterogeneous reactions taking place on particulate matter in the stratosphere. But even now after the wide acceptance of some heterogeneous reactions it is difficult to fully account for the rate at which Antarctic ozone is depleted each year in August. After reviewing the known heterogeneous reactions, possible hitherto unrecognised mechanisms are briefly outlined. The paper also includes a discussion of the chemical reactions which can occur even under relatively warm conditions on the ubiquitous, stratospheric aerosol particles and which could contribute to the observed mid-latitudinal ozone depletion. Finally, the paper underlines the importance of dynamic processes, that is, horizontal transport and vertical adiabatic motion, which appear to be the main cause of the anomalously low northern hemispheric ozone values during the 1991/1992 winter.     

Revised estimates of construction activity and emissions: Effects on ozone and elemental carbon concentrations in southern California

Emissions from diesel-powered construction equipment are an important source of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and particulate matter (PM). A new emission inventory for construction equipment emissions is developed based on surveys of diesel fuel use; the revised inventory is compared to current emission inventories. California's OFFROAD model estimates are 4.5 and 3.1 times greater, for NO_x and PM respectively, than the fuel-based estimates developed here. The most relevant uncertainties are the overall amount of construction activity/diesel fuel use, exhaust emission factors for PM and NO_x, and the spatial allocation of emissions to county level and finer spatial scales. Construction permit data were used in this study to estimate spatial distributions of emissions; the resulting distribution is well correlated with population growth. An air quality model was used to assess the impacts of revised emission estimates. Increases of up to 15 ppb in predicted peak ozone concentrations were found in southern California. Elemental carbon and fine particle mass concentrations were in better agreement with observations using revised emission estimates, whereas negative bias in predictions of ambient NO_x concentrations increased.     

The effects of meteorology on ozone in urban areas and their use in assessing ozone trends

The United States Environmental Protection Agency issues periodic reports that describe air quality trends in the US. For some pollutants, such as ozone, both observed and meteorologically adjusted trends are displayed. This paper describes an improved statistical methodology for meteorologically adjusting ozone trends as well as characterizes the relationships between individual meteorological parameters and ozone. A generalized linear model that accommodates the nonlinear effects of the meteorological variables was fit to data collected for 39 major eastern US urban areas. Overall, the model performs very well, yielding R² statistics as high as 0.80. The analysis confirms that ozone is generally increasing with increasing temperature and decreasing with increasing relative humidity. Examination of the spatial gradients of these responses show that the effect of temperature on ozone is most pronounced in the north while the opposite is true of relative humidity. By including HYSPLIT-derived transport wind direction and distance in the model, it is shown that the largest incremental impact of wind direction on ozone occurs along the periphery of the study domain, which encompasses major NO_x emission sources.     

Forecasting peak daily ozone levels: part 2--A regression with time series errors model having a principal component trigger to forecast 1999 and 2002 ozone levels

A modified time series approach, a Box-Jenkins regression with time series errors (RTSE) model plus a principal component (PC) trigger, has been developed to forecast peak daily 1-hr ozone (O3) in real time at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee North (UWM-N) during 1999 and 2002. The PC trigger acts as a predictor variable in the RTSE model. It tries to answer the question: will the next day be a possible high O3 day? To answer this question, three PC trigger rules were developed: (1) Hi-Low Checklist, (2) Discriminant Function Approach I, and (3) Discriminant Function Approach II. Also, a pure RTSE model without including the PC trigger and a persistence approach were tested for comparison. The RTSE model with DFA I successfully forecast the only two 1-hr federal exceedances (124 ppb), one in 1999 and one in 2002. In terms of the O3 100-ppb exceedances, 60-80% of the incorrect forecasts occurred with incorrect PC decisions. A few others may have been caused by unexpected O3-weather relations. When the three approaches used UWM-N data to forecast a 100-ppb exceedance somewhere in the Milwaukee, WI, metropolitan area, their performance was dramatically improved: the false alarm rate was reduced from 0.89 to 0.44, and the probability of detection was increased from 0.71 to 0.88.     

VOC concentration profiles in an ozone non-attainment area: A case study in an urban and industrial complex metroplex in southern Taiwan

VOCs are important precursors of the atmospheric ozone formation species. This study investigated the airborne concentrations of 52 VOCs at two air quality monitoring stations, Daliao and Tzouying, during wintertime in southern Taiwan. Airborne VOCs samples were taken in stainless steel canisters four times per day and analyzed via gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. Maximum increment reactivity (MIR) was used to evaluate the ozone formation potential in this ozone non-attainment region. Toluene, propane, isopentane, propene, n-butane, n-pentane and isoprene contributed 78–79% of the 52 VOCs in Daliao. Toluene, 1-butene, isopentane, propene, propane, n-undecane, and n-butane contributed 71–77% of the 52 VOCs in Tzouying. The VOCs concentrations were higher in Daliao due to the high toluene emissions from a paint plant and a solvent plant in the nearby industrial district. The 24-h VOC concentrations averaged 25 ppb higher in Tzouying than in Daliao. The ozone formation potential of airborne VOCs was 1687–2730 and 1717–2261 μg-O₃/g-VOCs in Daliao and Tzouying, respectively. Ozone concentrations in Tzouying were 44 ppb higher than in Daliao during the 1200–1600 sampling period.     

The health benefits of reduced tropospheric ozone in California

Californians are exposed daily to concentrations of ozone (O3) that are among the highest in the United States. Recently, the state adopted a new 8-hr ambient standard of 0.070 ppm, more stringent than the current federal standard. The new standard is based on controlled human studies and on dozens of epidemiologic studies reporting associations between O3 at current ambient levels and a wide range of adverse health outcomes. Clearly, the new O3 standards will require further reductions in the precursor pollutants and additional expenditures for pollution control. Therefore, it is important to quantify the incremental health benefits of moving from current conditions to the new California standard. In this paper, a standard methodology is applied to quantify the health benefits associated with O3 concentration reductions in California. O3 concentration reductions are estimated using ambient monitoring data and a proportional rollback approach in which changes are specific to each air basin, and control strategies may impact concentrations both below and above the standard. Health impacts are based on published epidemiologic studies, including O3-related mortality and morbidity, and economic values are assigned to these outcomes based on willingness-to-pay and cost-of-illness studies. Central estimates of this research indicate that attaining the California 8-hr standard, relative to current concentrations, would result in annual reductions of 630 cases of premature mortality, 4200 respiratory hospital admissions, 660 pediatric emergency room visits for asthma, 4.7 million days of school loss, and 3.1 million minor restricted activity days, with a median estimated economic value of dollar 4.5 billion. Sensitivity analyses indicate that these findings are robust with respect to exposure assessment methods but are influenced by assumptions about the slope of the concentration-response function in threshold models and the magnitude of the O3-mortality relationship. Although uncertainties exist for several components of the methodology, these results indicate that the benefits of reducing O3 to the California standard may be substantial and that further research on the shape of the O3-mortality concentration-response function and economic value of O3-related mortality would best reduce these uncertainties.     

The ozone formation potential of 1-bromo-propane

1-Bromo-propane (1-BP) is a replacement for high-end chlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) solvents. Its reaction rate constant with the OH radical is, on a weight basis, significantly less than that of ethane. However, the overall smog formation chemistry of 1-BP appears to be very unusual compared with typical volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and relatively complex because of the presence of bromine. In smog chamber experiments, 1-BP initially shows a faster ozone build-up than what would be expected from ethane, but the secondary products containing bromine tend to destroy ozone such that 1-BP can have a net overall negative reactivity. Alternative sets of reactions are offered to explain this unusual behavior. Follow-up studies are suggested to resolve the chemistry. Using one set of bromine-related reactions in a photochemical grid model shows that 1-BP would be less reactive toward peak ozone formation than ethane with a trend toward even lower ozone impacts in the future.     

The effect of ozone on below-ground carbon allocation in wheat

Short-term (14)CO(2) pulse and chase experiments were conducted in order to investigate the effect of ozone on below-ground carbon allocation in spring wheat seedlings (Triticum aestivum L. 'ANZA'). Wheat seedlings were grown in a sand-hydroponic system and exposed to either high ozone (38-40 ppm-h) or low ozone (23-31 ppm-h) for 21 days in a series of replicated experiments. Following the ozone exposures, the plants were pulsed with (14)CO(2) and allocation of (14)C-labeled photosynthate was measured in the plant and growth media. Soluble root exudates were measured, without disturbing the plant roots, 24 h after the (14)CO(2) pulse. Shoot biomass was reduced by 17% for the high ozone and 9% for the low ozone exposures, relative to control treatments. Root biomass was reduced by 9% for the high ozone exposures, but was not significantly different than the controls for the low ozone. The amount of (14)C activity in the shoot and root tissue 24 h after the (14)CO(2) pulse, normalized to tissue weight, total (14)CO(2) uptake, or the total (14)C retention in each plant, was not affected by either high or low ozone exposures. The amount of (14)C activity measured in the growth media solution surrounding the roots increased 9% for the high ozone exposures, and after normalizing to root size or root (14)C activity, the growth media solution (14)C activity increased 29 and 40%, respectively. Total respiration of (14)CO(2) from the ozone-treated plants decreased, but the decrease was not statistically significant. Our results suggest that soluble root exudation of (14)C activity to the surrounding rhizosphere increases in response to ozone. Increased root exudation to the rhizosphere in response to ozone is contrary to reports of decreased carbon allocation below ground and suggests that rhizosphere microbial activity may be initially stimulated by plant exposure to ozone.