An air pollution modeling study using three surface coverings near the New International Airport of Mexico City

The dry lakebed of what once was the lake of Texcoco is the location selected for the New International Airport of Mexico City. This project will generate an important urban development near the airport with regional implications on air quality. Using a prognostic air quality model, the consequences of photochemical air pollution in the metropolitan area of Mexico City resulting from three possible coverings for the areas of the lakebed that are not occupied by the runway and terminal building are investigated. These coverings are desert, grassland, and water and occupy an area of 63 km2. This study is based on a representative high pollution episode. In addition to reducing the emission of primary natural particles, the water covering generates a land-water breeze capable of maintaining enough ventilation to reduce pollutant concentrations over a localized region of the metropolitan area and may enhance the wind speed on the coasts of the proposed lake.     

An assessment of the impact of climate change on air quality at two UK sites

Possible effects of climate change on air quality are studied for two urban sites in the UK, London and Glasgow. Hourly meteorological data were obtained from climate simulations for two periods representing the current climate and a plausible late 21st century climate. Of the meteorological quantities relevant to air quality, significant changes were found in temperature, specific humidity, wind speed, wind direction, cloud cover, solar radiation, surface sensible heat flux and precipitation. Using these data, dispersion estimates were made for a variety of single sources and some significant changes in environmental impact were found in the future climate. In addition, estimates for future background concentrations of NO_x, NO₂, ozone and PM₁₀ upwind of London and Glasgow were made using the meteorological data in a statistical model. These showed falls in NO_x and increases in ozone for London, while a fall in NO₂ was the largest percentage change for Glasgow. Other changes were small. With these background estimates, annual-average concentrations of NO_x, NO₂, ozone and PM₁₀ were estimated within the two urban areas. For London, results averaged over a number of sites showed a fall in NO_x and a rise in ozone, but only small changes in NO₂ and PM₁₀. For Glasgow, the changes in all four chemical species were small. Large-scale background ozone values from a global chemical transport model are also presented. These show a decrease in background ozone due to climate change. To assess the net impact of both large scale and local processes will require models which treat all relevant scales.     

Impact of wildfires on the air quality of Mexico City, 1992-1999

Wildfires in Mexico increased in 1998, compared to information for the last 6 years. The average number of wildfires in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) for this year (1998) were 58% (1916 events) more events than the 1992-1997 (average cases 1217 events). Mexico City affected area corresponds to 1.3% of the national affected area. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact on the particles air quality due to the wildfire emissions at the MCMA and surrounding areas. Using the corresponding US EPA emission factors for wildfires, the tons of particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, and total hydrocarbons emitted by this source for the MCMA case were obtained. The calculated emissions during wildfires were correlated with the levels of particles present in the atmosphere. A comparison of the concentration levels of particles, both as PM10 as well as TSP, were made for the years 1992-1998, during wet and dry season, being March, April, and May the critical months due to the presence of wildfires. A good correlation is observed between particulate wildfire emissions and particulate air quality, being stronger for TSP. A clear impact on the particles air quality due to the increase of wildfires in 1998, is observed when this year is compared with 1997, presenting an increment of 200-300% for some monitoring stations.     

An approach for determining air pollution monitoring sites

EC Directive 2008/50/CE on ambient air quality and cleaner air for Europe specifies the obligations of Member States regarding fixed measurements of atmospheric pollutants in areas where maximum concentration levels exceed the lower assessment threshold. However, indications as to the siting of atmospheric monitoring stations are less precise and sometimes confusing. Campaigns to measure benzene and other volatile organic compounds in Murcia in 2007 and 2008 revealed that the areas where measurements coincided with the mean concentration for the whole city were always practically the same. Consequently, we propose a method for siting atmospheric monitoring stations in cities for which emission sources remain steady throughout the year, as is the case for cities in most southern European countries, where the most important emission source is traffic. The method is particularly useful for towns in which only one fixed measuring point is compulsory and should help local authorities in making correct decisions in this context.     

Resolving local-scale emissions for modeling air quality near roadways

A large body of literature published in recent years suggests increased health risk due to exposure of people to air pollution in close proximity to roadways. As a result, there is a need to more accurately represent the spatial concentration gradients near roadways to develop mitigation strategies. In this paper, we present a practical, readily adaptable methodology, using a "bottom-up" approach to develop a detailed highway vehicle emission inventory that includes emissions for individual road links. This methodology also takes advantage of geographic information system (GIS) software to improve the spatial accuracy of the activity information obtained from a Travel Demand Model. In addition, we present an air quality modeling application of this methodology in New Haven, CT. This application uses a hybrid modeling approach, in which a regional grid-based model is used to characterize average local ambient concentrations, and a Gaussian dispersion model is used to provide texture within the modeling domain because of spatial gradients associated with highway vehicle emissions and other local sources. Modeling results show substantial heterogeneity of pollutant concentrations within the modeling domain and strong spatial gradients associated with roadways, particularly for pollutants dominated by direct emissions.     

Measurements of peroxyacyl nitrates (PANS) in Mexico City: implications for megacity air quality impacts on regional scales

Peroxyacyl nitrates (PANs) were measured using gas chromatography with electron capture detection (GC/ECD) in north central Mexico City during February–March of 1997. Peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) was observed to exceed 30 ppb during five days of the study, with peroxypropionyl nitrate (PPN) and peroxybutryl nitrate (PBN) reaching 6 and 1 ppb maximum, respectively. Levels of total PANs typically exceeded 10 ppb during the period of measurement and showed a very strong diurnal variation with PANs maximum during the early afternoon and falling to less than 0.1 ppb during the evening hours. These levels of PANs are the highest reported values in North America (and the world) for an urban center, since levels of approximately 30 ppb were reported during the late 1970s in the Los Angeles area (South Coast Air Basin, Tuazon et al., 1978). Hydrocarbon measurements indicate that the levels of olefins, specifically butenes are significant in Mexico City. A time series taken of source indicator hydrocarbons taken before and during a Mexican National Holiday with reduced automobile traffic clearly show that mobile sources of butenes are as important as liquefied petroleum gas. Observations of 10–40 ppb C methyl-t-butyl ether (MTBE) are consistent with MTBE/gasoline fuel usage as a source of isobutene and formaldehyde. Both these reactive species can lead to increased oxidant and PAN formation. The strong diurnal profiles of PANs are consistent with regional clearing of the Mexico City air basin on a daily basis. Estimates are given using a simple box model calculation for a number of key primary and secondary pollutant emissions from this megacity on an annual basis. These calculations indicate that megacities can be important sources of both primary and secondary pollutants, and that PANs produced in megacity environments are likely to contribute strongly to regional scale ozone and aerosol productions during long range transport.     

MM5 simulations for air quality modeling: An application to a coastal area with complex terrain

A series of modifications were implemented in MM5 simulation in order to account for wind along the Santa Clarita valley, a north–south running valley located in the north of Los Angeles. Due to high range mountains in the north and the east of the Los Angeles Air Basin, sea breeze entering Los Angeles exits into two directions. One branch moves toward the eastern part of the basin and the other to the north toward the Santa Clarita valley. However, the northward flow has not been examined thoroughly nor simulated successfully in the previous studies. In the present study, we proposed four modifications to trigger the flow separation. They were (1) increasing drag over the ocean, (2) increasing soil moisture content, (3) selective observational nudging, and (4) one-way nesting for the innermost domain. The Control run overpredicted near-surface wind speed over the ocean and sensible heat flux, in an urbanized area, which justifies the above 1st and 2nd modification. The Modified run provided an improvement in near-surface temperature, sensible heat flux and wind fields including southeasterly flow along the Santa Clarita valley. The improved MM5 wind field triggered a transport to the Santa Clarita valley generating a plume elongated from an urban center to the north, which did not exist in MM5 Control run. In all, the modified MM5 fields yielded better agreement in both CO and O₃ simulations especially in the Santa Clarita area.     

State-space modeling of the relationship between air quality and mortality

A portion of a population is assumed to be at risk, with the mortality hazard varying with atmospheric conditions including total suspended particulates (TSP). This at-risk population is not observed and the hazard function is unknown; we wish to estimate these from mortality count and atmospheric variables. Consideration of population dynamics leads to a state-space representation, allowing the Kalman Filter (KF) to be used for estimation. A harvesting effect is thus implied; high mortality is followed by lower mortality until the population is replenished by new arrivals. The model is applied to daily data for Philadelphia, PA, 1973-1990. The estimated hazard function rises with the level of TSP and at extremes of temperature and also reflects a positive interaction between TSP and temperature. The estimated at-risk population averages about 480 and varies seasonally. We find that lags of TSP are statistically significant, but the presence of negative coefficients suggests their role may be partially statistical rather than biological. In the population dynamics framework, the natural metric for health damage from air pollution is its impact on life expectancy. The range of hazard rates over the sample period is 0.07 to 0.085, corresponding to life expectancies of 14.3 and 11.8 days, respectively.     

Refining fire emissions for air quality modeling with remotely sensed fire counts: A wildfire case study

This paper examines the use of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observed active fire data (pixel counts) to refine the National Emissions Inventory (NEI) fire emission estimates for major wildfire events. This study was motivated by the extremely limited information available for many years of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) NEI about the specific location and timing of major fire events. The MODIS fire data provide twice-daily snapshots of the locations and breadth of fires, which can be helpful for identifying major wildfires that typically persist for a minimum of several days. A major wildfire in Mallory Swamp, FL, is used here as a case study to test a reallocation approach for temporally and spatially distributing the state-level fire emissions based on the MODIS fire data. Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model simulations using these reallocated emissions are then compared with another simulation based on the original NEI fire emissions. We compare total carbon (TC) predictions from these CMAQ simulations against observations from the Inter-agency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) surface network. Comparisons at three IMPROVE sites demonstrate substantial improvements in the temporal variability and overall correlation for TC predictions when the MODIS fire data is used to refine the fire emission estimates. These results suggest that if limited information is available about the spatial and temporal extent of a major wildfire fire, remotely sensed fire data can be a useful surrogate for developing the fire emissions estimates for air quality modeling purposes.     

An online coupled meteorological and air quality modeling study of the effect of complex terrain on the regional transport and transformation of air pollutants over the Western United States

One of the most prominent of characteristics of the western United States that affects its meteorology is the complexity of its mountainous terrain. The meteorological Mesoscale Model, version 5 with Chemistry (MM5-Chem), an online-coupled atmospheric chemistry model, was used to investigate the effect of this terrain on a high air pollution event in the free troposphere. The simulations were evaluated by comparisons with data from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). Complex terrain was shown to have an important influence on the vertical transport of air pollutants on the regional scale; emissions from ground level were vertically mixed as high as 5 km above sea surface level for the wintertime conditions simulated. The simulations showed that the vertical transport of emissions from the Earth's surface could have a more significant effect on mid and upper level chemical concentrations than chemical production. The vertical transport was caused predominately by terrain forced flow over the mountains’ ridge-line and the terrain forced flow was affected by the mountain peak height and the complexity of the terrain downwind.     

Hazardous air pollutants from mobile sources in the Metropolitan Area of Mexico City

Environmental agencies are currently in the process of implementing a new air management program, which includes the improvement of fuel quality. In this work, exhaust emissions data and estimated relative risk for various fuels testing in-use vehicles, equipped with three different exhaust emission control technologies, are presented. Aromatics, sulfur, and olefins contents; type of oxygenated compound; and Reid vapor pressure were varied. The aim also includes calculating the ozone (O3) forming potential and a relative cancer risk of emissions from current and formulated gasoline blends in Mexico. The proposed gasoline decreases carbon monoxide, total hydrocarbons (THC), and nitrogen oxides emissions by 18 and 14%, respectively, when compared with gasoline sold in the rest of the country and within ozone nonattainment metropolitan areas in Mexico, respectively.     

The impact of NOx,CO and VOC emissions on the air quality of Zurich airport

To study the impact of emissions at an airport on local air quality, a measurement campaign at the Zurich airport was performed from 30 June 2004 to 15 July 2004. Measurements of NO, NO₂, CO and CO₂ were conducted with open path devices to determine real in-use emission indices of aircraft during idling. Additionally, air samples were taken to analyse the mixing ratios of volatile organic compounds (VOC). Temporal variations of VOC mixing ratios on the airport were investigated, while other air samples were taken in the plume of an aircraft during engine ignition. CO concentrations in the vicinity of the terminals were found to be highly dependent on aircraft movement, whereas NO concentrations were dominated by emissions from ground support vehicles. The measured emission indices for aircraft showed a strong dependence upon engine type. Our work also revealed differences from emission indices published in the emission data base of the International Civil Aviation Organisation. Among the VOC, reactive C₂–C₃ alkenes were found in significant amounts in the exhaust of an engine compared to ambient levels. Also, isoprene, a VOC commonly associated with biogenic emissions, was found in the exhaust, however it was not detected in refuelling emissions. The benzene to toluene ratio was used to discriminate exhaust from refuelling emission. In refuelling emissions, a ratio well below 1 was found, while for exhaust this ratio was usually about 1.7.     

An examination of box models for air quality simulation

The simple box model was studied in detail by applying it to a number of physical situations. The study showed that the model has several shortcomings. These deficiencies were brought out clearly by comparing model results with those of a model based on the exact mass conservation equation. The latter model, which we refer to as the slug model, was applied to an actual stagnation episode. The agreement between observed and modeled concentrations indicated that the slug model could be used to provide estimates of variables needed in emission control action during air pollution incidents.     

Guidance for the performance evaluation of three-dimensional air quality modeling systems for particulate matter and visibility

Guidance for the performance evaluation of three-dimensional air quality modeling systems for particulate matter and visibility is presented. Four levels are considered: operational, diagnostic, mechanistic, and probabilistic evaluations. First, a comprehensive model evaluation should be conducted in at least two distinct geographical locations and for several meteorological episodes. Next, streamlined evaluations can be conducted for other similar applications if the comprehensive evaluation is deemed satisfactory. In all cases, the operational evaluation alone is insufficient, and some diagnostic evaluation must always be carried out. Recommendations are provided for designing field measurement programs that can provide the data needed for such model performance evaluations.     

A full year evaluation of the CALIOPE-EU air quality modeling system over Europe for 2004

The CALIOPE-EU high-resolution air quality modeling system, namely WRF-ARW/HERMES-EMEP/CMAQ/BSC-DREAM8b, is developed and applied to Europe (12 km × 12 km, 1 h). The model performances are tested in terms of air quality levels and dynamics reproducibility on a yearly basis. The present work describes a quantitative evaluation of gas phase species (O₃, NO₂ and SO₂) and particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) against ground-based measurements from the EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) network for the year 2004. The evaluation is based on statistics. Simulated O₃ achieves satisfactory performances for both daily mean and daily maximum concentrations, especially in summer, with annual mean correlations of 0.66 and 0.69, respectively. Mean normalized errors are comprised within the recommendations proposed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US-EPA). The general trends and daily variations of primary pollutants (NO₂ and SO₂) are satisfactory. Daily mean concentrations of NO₂ correlate well with observations (annual correlation r = 0.67) but tend to be underestimated. For SO₂, mean concentrations are well simulated (mean bias = 0.5 μg m^?3) with relatively high annual mean correlation (r = 0.60), although peaks are generally overestimated. The dynamics of PM2.5 and PM10 is well reproduced (0.49 < r < 0.62), but mean concentrations remain systematically underestimated. Deficiencies in particulate matter source characterization are discussed. Also, the spatially distributed statistics and the general patterns for each pollutant over Europe are examined. The model performances are compared with other European studies. While O₃ statistics generally remain lower than those obtained by the other considered studies, statistics for NO₂, SO₂, PM2.5 and PM10 present higher scores than most models.