Development and case study of a science-based software platform to support policy making on air quality

This article describes the development and implementations of a novel software platform that supports real-time, science-based policy making on air quality through a user-friendly interface. The software, RSM-VAT, uses a response surface modeling(RSM) methodology and serves as a visualization and analysis tool(VAT) for three-dimensional air quality data obtained by atmospheric models. The software features a number of powerful and intuitive data visualization functions for illustrating the complex nonlinear relationship between emission reductions and air quality benefits. The case study of contiguous U.S.demonstrates that the enhanced RSM-VAT is capable of reproducing the air quality model results with Normalized Mean Bias 2% and assisting in air quality policy making in near real time.     

基于响应面模型的区域大气污染控制辅助决策工具研发

基于CMAQ模型结果,利用高维克里金插值算法,建立了排放控制因子与污染物环境浓度的响应面模型(RSM),实现了大气污染可控源排放与复合污染水平的实时函数响应.研究结果显示,RSM对PM2.5的预测结果与CMAQ实际模拟结果的误差在容许范围内(最大误差小于0.20μg.m-3,3.89%).基于所建立的RSM,开发了RSM-VAT区域大气污染控制可视化辅助决策工具.使用RSM-VAT对美国8个典型城市的PM2.5污染状况进行了控制情景分析,通过"可视化展示"和"图表分析"二大模块,输出不同控制情景下的环境污染物浓度的实时响应图、可视化展示和数据分析图表等结果.     

空气污染与健康效益评估工具BenMAP CE研发

为了评估空气污染带来的健康冲击、评估健康效益,克服现有评估工具(BenMAP V4.0)计算速度缓慢及用户体验较差等问题,受美国环保署委托,设计并研发了新一代空气污染与健康效益评估工具BenMAP CE,搭建了BenMAP CE的框架,进行了详细功能设计,并利用美国环保署提供的数据进行了实测.测试结果表明,基于相同的输入文件和设置,BenMAP CE能重现BenMAP V4.0的计算结果,相比现有的评估工具,BenMAP CE具有良好的用户体验、强大的GIS展示功能及大幅提高的计算速度.BenMAP CE是考虑了污染物环境浓度削减、人口密度、收入差异等经济因素的综合性评估工具,能为决策者评估空气污染控制措施所带来的健康效益提供辅助决策依据.     

Design and demonstration of a next-generation air quality attainment assessment system for PM2.5 and O3

Due to the increasingly stringent standards, it is important to assess whether the proposed emission reduction will result in ambient concentrations that meet the standards. The Software for Model Attainment Test—Community Edition (SMAT-CE) is developed for demonstrating attainment of air quality standards of O₃ and PM_2.5. SMAT-CE improves computational efficiency and provides a number of advanced visualization and analytical functionalities on an integrated GIS platform. SMAT-CE incorporates historical measurements of air quality parameters and simulated air pollutant concentrations under a number of emission inventory scenarios to project the level of compliance to air quality standards in a targeted future year. An application case study of the software based on the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) shows that SMAT-CE is capable of demonstrating the air quality attainment of annual PM_2.5 and 8-hour O₃ for a proposed emission control policy.     

污染减排对城市降水和环境空气质量的影响

文章以2005～2008年湖南省二氧化硫、烟尘和工业粉尘的减排情况以及城市环境空气质量监测结果为基础,分析了大气污染减排对湖南省城市降水和城市环境空气质量的影响,阐述了大气污染减排取得的环境效益,为湖南省下一步的污染减排和环境管理政策及措施的制定提供了依据。     

加权灰色局势决策法在环境空气质量评价中的应用

应用加权灰色局势决策法对１０ 个样本的环境空气质量进行评价，结果表明，该法能准确地评价环境空气质量状况，可以为环境决策提供比较可靠的依据，对于环境管理与决策具有重要意义。     

大气污染扩散空间信息系统

将GIS(地理信息系统)引入大气多源扩散研究领域,成功地解决了GIS与大气污染扩散数据的连接问题,实现了大气污染扩散数据的计算机图形可视化与计算机一次成图的功能。在此基础上开发了一套带GIS图形处理和分析功能的大气污染扩散空间信息系统软件包,该软件包对传统的G－H面源模式进行了改进工作,提高了其计算速度及计算精度。对线源模式进行了研究,提高了其计算速度及计算精度,解决了在普通微机上实现线源污染扩散的计算问题。      

基于ArcGIS Server ADF的流域水环境专题图研究

专题地图是流域水环境信息的良好表达形式和信息载体,文章运用地理信息系统二次开发软件-ArcGIS Server ADF研究并实现水环境专题图展示功能。通过流域水环境信息专题地图可以表达水环境监测评价结果,能将水环境质量的空间规律直观显示,实现水环境质量评价信息的可视化,并表示其动态变化和发展趋势,揭示发展规律,以供有关专家、决策者获取各类重要信息,进行环保政策的研究分析和决策。     

Uncertainty in dispersion modelling and urban air quality mapping

The ADMS-urban atmospheric dispersion modelling system has been applied to review of air quality in central London in 1996/1997 and assessment of future air quality against air quality objectives in 2005. Model performance is assessed by in situ validation against monitoring data. This case study illustrates how scientific uncertainty needs to be considered when using model output in such a policy context. Model precision, carefully defined, is ±10% with bias between 0 and +12% (model over-prediction) for annual mean nitrogen dioxide and respirable particulate (PM₁₀) concentrations and for the 90th percentile of daily mean PM₁₀. As expected, the model is less accurate for the maximum and 99.8th percentile of hourly mean nitrogen dioxide concentrations and for total NO_x. We propose probabilistic mapping techniques should be used to formalise and clarify how uncertainty is translated into the definition of an Air Quality Management Area (AQMA) on a map. This also identifies the extent to which air quality objectives have been defined for which current dispersion model performance is inadequate. It is recommended that the capabilities of modelling alongside measurement need to be considered at an early stage in the formulation of future air quality management policy.     

大气污染防治综合科学决策支持平台的开发及应用

大气污染防治和环境治理的紧迫性和复杂性需要科学有效的决策,而以费效评估为标志的综合决策评估模型是支撑环境决策和管理的重要工具.当前以ABaCAS（Air Pollution Control Cost-Benefit and Attainment Assessment System,空气污染控制成本效益与达标评估系统）为代表的综合决策评估模型可以实现对特定减排方案的费效评估,然而无法支持开展基于费效的达标路径优化,以及对应不同环境目标下减排策略的优化制定.针对上述问题,建立了大气污染防治综合科学决策支持平台.该平台以ABaCAS的4个核心模块为基础,建立了新的基于环境目标的反算技术（LE-CO）及优化集成运行模式（ABaCAS-OE）,实现了对不同环境目标要求的减排量反算,并对优化的减排策略下的空气质量改善效果、目标可达性、控制成本及健康收益进行快速估算.将大气污染防治综合科学决策支持平台应用到京津冀及周边地区"2+26"城市,反算了2035年达标要求下的减排情景,以及对应减排方案的费用与效益.结果表明,相较于2015年,预测了2035年京津冀及周边地区的PM_2.5、SO₂、NO_x、VOCs、NH₃排放量需分别减排70%~87%、49%~85%、66%~74%、51%~66%、0~40%才可达标,并且该情景可以带来可观的效益,费用-效益比达3.7.未来大气污染防治综合科学决策支持平台的研究将进一步面向多目标、多行业、多组分、多区域的精细化调控技术,实现经济、能源、排放、浓度、成本、健康、生态、气候一体化的综合决策,以全面支撑我国大气污染防治的综合科学决策.      

基于Excel软件流程化输出环境空气质量指数(AQI)功能实现的研究

随着环境空气质量标准的全面实施,数据的有效性和准确性得到了极大关注.空气质量指数以数值的形式表述空气质量状况、便于公众简明、清楚地了解空气质量的优劣程度,及时、准确的向公众提供易于理解的当地空气质量状况.基于EXCEL软件计算环境空气质量指数(AQI)的方法有助于AQI算法在基础应用层面的实现,也有助于验证开发技术软件平台中涉及的数据统计算法的准确性.本文以苏州市环境空气监测数据为例,实现了基于EXCEL软件的AQI计算,供相关从业人员参考.     

基于测点环境浓度影响的点源应急强化减排分析

基于预报气象条件、广州及周边城市的重点企业排放清单,采用CALPUFF模型模拟2010年亚运会开幕式期间重点企业对广州市内空气质量监测点的相对环境浓度影响,据此筛选得出预报不利气象条件下工业点源应急强化减排名单,并利用GIS可视化技术分析点源强化减排效果,为空气质量保障的专家会商提供依据.广州亚运会期间点源应急强化减排实施效果表明,有针对性地对测点环境浓度影响大的企业实施强化减排措施,可有效缓解个别点位的一定范围内超标问题.本文提出的研究方法和配套的GIS软件可为不利气象条件下工业点源的应急强化减排提供辅助决策服务和数据支持.     

基于WRF-CMAQ评估秸秆禁烧对区域空气质量的影响

基于本地化的秸秆露天焚烧主要大气污染物排放清单,采用空气质量模式WRF-CMAQ,定量评估秸秆禁烧管控对东北地区空气质量的影响.结果显示,2013~2020年东北地区秸秆露天焚烧污染物排放总量整体呈现先增加再降低的趋势,每年的秸秆焚烧集中期为春耕前（3月和4月）和秋收后（10月和11月）.2017年秸秆焚烧集中期内,秸秆露天焚烧对东北三省的CO和PM_2.5浓度的贡献率分别为24.01%和39.98%,农作秸秆露天焚烧是造成东北地区空气质量下降的重要因素;相同气象条件下,2019年秸秆焚烧集中期,秸秆焚烧对东北三省大气中CO和PM_2.5浓度的贡献率较2017年同期分别下降了9.58%和13.95%,表明2019年的秸秆禁烧政策有效改善了东北地区的空气质量.同时,若东北三省均实施吉林省2019年的秸秆禁烧管控政策,则东北地区的空气质量将会进一步改善.本研究结果可为区域大气污染联防联控政策的制定提供科技支撑.     

Moving towards ambitious climate policies: Monetised health benefits from improved air quality could offset mitigation costs in Europe

Air quality and related health effects are not only affected by policies directly addressed at air pollution but also by other environmental strategies such as climate mitigation. This study addresses how different climate policy pathways indirectly bear upon air pollution in terms of improved human health in Europe. To this end, we put in perspective mitigation costs and monetised health benefits of reducing PM_2.5 (particles less than 2.5 μm in diameter) and ozone concentrations.Air quality in Europe and related health impacts were assessed using a comprehensive modelling chain, based on global and regional climate and chemistry-transport models together with a health impact assessment tool. This allows capturing both the impact of climate policy on emissions of air pollutants and the geophysical impact of climate change on air quality.Results are presented for projections at the 2050 horizon, for a set of consistent air pollution and climate policy scenarios, combined with population data from the UN's World Population Prospects, and are expressed in terms of morbidity and mortality impacts of PM_2.5 and ozone pollution and their monetised damage equivalent.The analysis shows that enforcement of current European air quality policies would effectively reduce health impacts from PM_2.5 in Europe even in the absence of climate policies (life years lost from the exposure to PM_2.5 decrease by 78% between 2005 and 2050 in the reference scenario), while impacts for ozone depend on the ambition level of international climate policies. A move towards stringent climate policies on a global scale, in addition to limiting global warming, creates co-benefits in terms of reduced health impacts (68% decrease in life years lost from the exposure to PM_2.5 and 85% decrease in premature deaths from ozone in 2050 in the mitigation scenario relative to the reference scenario) and air pollution cost savings (77%) in Europe. These co-benefits are found to offset at least 85% of the additional cost of climate policy in this region.     

城市空气质量数值预报模式系统及其应用

介绍了一种城市空气质量数值预报模式系统 ,该系统由气象模式 (中尺度气象模式MM5及城市大气边界层模式CBLM)和大气污染物输送扩散化学模式组成 .将模式系统应用于南京市 ,试预报结果同监测结果一致 ,表明模式具有较好的模拟性能 .模式系统试运行后的检验改进工作 ,气象资料、污染源及环境参数等质量的提高 ,预报结果检验方法的确定等都是模式系统业务化时应予以充分考虑的 .     

区域环境大气质量评价专家系统

立足于我国环境监测数据和我国专家经验建立了一个集数据库、知识库、方法库、模式库和图形库为一体的实用性区域环境大气质量评价专家系统。该系统可以进行现状评价、回顾评价、预测分析和控制对策分析。经天津市评价实例证明该系统具有可达性和实用性。     

大气污染扩散可视化--地理信息系统的应用

在进行某一项目区的大气污染扩散研究时，可借助现有的GIS平台，利用数字技术对具有空间内涵的对象作可视化处理，实现污染源可视化、结果浓度数据可视化和大气环境评价结果可视化。     

Simulation on an optimal combustion control strategy for 3-D temperature distributions in tangentially pc-fired utility boiler furnaces

The control of 3-D temperature distribution in a utility boiler fumace is essential for the safe, economic and clean operation of pc-fired fumace with multi-burner system. The development of the visualization of 3-D temperature distributions in pcfired fumaces makes it possible for a new combustion control strategy directly with the fumace temperature as its goal to improve the control quality for the combustion processes. Studied in this paper is such a new strategy that the whole fumace is divided into several parts in the vertical direction, and the average temperature and its bias from the center in every cross section can be extracted from the visualization results of the3-D temperature distributions. In the simulation stage, a computational fluid dynamics(CFD) code served to calculate the 3-D temperature distributions in a furnace, then a linear model was set up to relate the features of the temperature distributions with the input of the combustion processes, such as the flow rates of fuel and air fed into the furnaces through all the bumers. The adaptive genetic algorithm was adopted to find the optimal combination of the whole input parameters which ensure to form an optimal 3-D temperature field in the fumace desired for the operation of boiler. Simulation results showed that the strategy could soon find the factors making the temperature distribution apart from the optimal state and give correct adjusting suggestions.     

Application of AERMOD on near future air quality simulation under the latest national emission control policy of China：A case study on an industrial city

Air quality model can be an adequate tool for future air quality prediction, also atmospheric observations supporting and emission control strategies responders. The influence of emission control policy (emission reduction targets in the national "China’s 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015)") on the air quality in the near future over an important industrial city of China, Xuanwei in Yunnan Province, was studied by applying the AERMOD modeling system. First, our analysis demonstrated that the AERMOD modeling system could be used in the air quality simulation in the near future for SO2 and NOx under average meteorology but not for PM10. Second, after evaluating the simulation results in 2008 and 2015, ambient concentration of SO2, NOx and PM10 (only 2008) were all centered in the middle of simulation area where the emission sources concentrated, and it is probably because the air pollutions were source oriented. Last but not least, a better air quality condition will happen under the hypothesis that the average meteorological data can be used in near future simulation. However, there are still heavy polluted areas where ambient concentrations will exceed the air quality standard in near future. In spatial allocation, reduction effect of SO2 is more significant than NOx in 2015 as the contribution of SO2 from industry is more than NOx. These results inspired the regulatory applications of AERMOD modeling system in evaluating environmental pollutant control policy     

Air Quality Action Plans: early indicators of urban local authority practice in England

The delivery of improved local ambient air quality in the UK has emerged through the implementation of the Air Quality Strategy for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland [DETR, Welsh Office, Scottish Office, Department of the Environment for Northern Ireland, The Air Quality Strategy for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, CM 4548, London, The Stationery Office, 2000] by the air quality management (AQM) regime. Local authorities now have the responsibility to undertake a review and assessment of air quality in their area and to identify locations where health-based objectives are likely to be exceeded. If relevant public exposure exists, an air quality management area must be designated. Air Quality Action Plans (AQAPs) provide the mechanism by which local authorities, in collaboration with national agencies and others, will state their intentions for working towards the air quality objectives through the powers they have available and by collaboration with other bodies who are in the position of implementing solutions to their air quality hot spots. This management regime will require a new way of local authority working, involving not only local authority joint working but also regional collaboration and co-operation with outside agencies and authorities such as health authorities, regulators of industry and highways managers. Management aspects of the AQM process have been investigated through the data collection from a series of questionnaire surveys. It is argued that the extent to which a local authority is able to show integration of its air quality management responsibilities is an indicator of their capability for delivering AQAPs. Although local authorities appear to be making moves towards a more integrated approach to managing environmental issues, there are still significant gaps in joint working identified through questionnaire surveys and case studies undertaken by the authors. Some recommendations for the successful implementation of AQAPs are also included.