电力系统自然灾害的现状与对策

回顾了近年来世界各国的电力系统在自然灾害下的运行安全状况，特别是我国电力系统的主要自然灾害状况。重点介绍了电力系统在灾害性强风和地震作用下所受的影响。近年的自然灾害说明，开展我国电力系统防御重大自然灾害的研究和风险评估工作，建立电力系统自然灾害事故的预警机制、应急反应机制和灾后快速恢复重建机制，是提高电力系统防灾能力的关键。     

小天体撞击灾害

由小天体与地球相撞而造成的撞击灾害是发生在太阳系尺度上的特大自然灾害：所谓小天体,是指那些可能与地球相撞的近地小行星、短周期彗星和长周期彗星,撞击灾害比洪水、地震和其他自然灾害更少发生,可是撞击灾害的后果却严重得多,甚至严重到可以引起地球生物大规模绝来的程度,并非所有撞击地球的小天体都能造成撞击灾害,能量低于10Mt的小天体就不能形成撞击灾害,而能量接近全球撞击灾害阈值（10^5-10^6Mt）的撞击灾害风险最大,全球撞击灾害是目前我们唯一知道能够造成世界上当大部分死亡的自然灾害,并且它的风险水平与我们熟悉的许多自然灾害相当。     

Policy options for managing flood insurance

In much of the developed world, private sector insurance plays an important but often underappreciated role in the management of natural disasters. Insurance works by spreading individual and independent risks across all policyholders. This notion succeeds for uncorrelated risks such as theft and motor accidents, but is problematic where risks are highly correlated in space and time, as in the case of natural hazards. Insurers transfer much of this risk to international reinsurers who are guided by the principle that natural catastrophes in different parts of the world are uncorrelated. Global diversification allows reinsurers to confer to direct insurers the same assurance that insurers offer their policyholders. This paper outlines these principles and poses questions as to how a government might respond when insurers assess some risks as uninsurable. It considers a range of policy options including some that seek to avoid situations where interference by governments in the marketplace has proved unhelpful. A key paradigm is that insurance premiums should reflect actual risk in order to encourage homeowners, planners and government decision makers to reduce risks. While our focus is riverine flood risk, the principles can be generalized to a wide range of natural hazards.     

Disaster risk,social vulnerability,and economic development

This paper examines the extent to which economic development decreases a country's risk of experiencing climate‐related disasters as well as the societal impacts of those events. The paper proceeds from the underlying assumption that disasters are not inherently natural, but arise from the intersection of naturally‐occurring hazards within fragile environments. It uses data from the International Disaster Database (EM‐DAT), 1 representing country‐year‐level observations over the period 1980–2007. The study finds that low‐income countries are significantly more at risk of climate‐related disasters, even after controlling for exposure to climate hazards and other factors that may confound disaster reporting. Following the occurrence of a disaster, higher income generally diminishes a country's social vulnerability to such happenings, resulting in lower levels of mortality and morbidity. This implies that continued economic development may be a powerful tool for lessening social vulnerability to climate change.     

自然灾害发生时间序列的分形特征及R/S分析

统计了公元960年到1979年我国地震、洪涝和台风风暴潮灾害发生的时间及死亡人数,以分形几何中的Cantor集合为模型,发现我国自然灾害发生时间序列的分布呈现出明显的分形特征,并采用Smalley方法分别计算了不同灾害发生时间序列分布的分维值,它们均在0.5左右,同严格意义上的数学分形Cantor集合相比分维较小,说明我国地震等自然灾害发生发展的自组织程度还有进一步发展的趋势,其危害程度将可能进一步提高;在自然灾害发生时间序列的分形特征的基础上,通过R/S分析,得出3种自然灾害发生时间序列的H指数均在0.28左右,同日斑指数、树木年轮、湖泊水位变化等自然现象相比较小,说明自然灾害的发生具有短程相关性,其发生规律没有日斑指数等自然现象明显.该研究对于进一步认识和研究我国地震等自然灾害的发生规律和发展趋势等具有一定意义.     

我国自然灾害时空分布及其粮食风险评估

分析了旱灾、水灾、风雹灾、霜冻灾、台风灾和农业病虫害、草害、鼠害8种自然灾害的时空分布情况,计算了其造成的历年粮食减产量,并在此基础上评估2020年自然灾害对粮食产量的影响。结果表明,2020年不同自然灾害对我国各省粮食生产的影响程度不同。旱灾风险区集中在我国北方地区,分布在黄淮海区、西北区等;涝灾风险区集中在我国南方地区,分布在长江中下游区等;风雹灾风险区对我国粮食产量影响相对较小,主要分布在新疆和青海;台风灾风险区集中在我国南方沿海地区;农业病虫害风险区集中在我国的南方地区,分布在华南沿海区和西南区等;而霜冻灾、农业草害、鼠害对粮食生产的影响范围和影响程度较小。     

Post‐crisis analysis of an ineffective tsunami alert: the 2010 earthquake in Maule,Chile

Considering its huge magnitude and its location in a densely populated area of Chile, the Maule seism of 27 February 2010 generated a low amount of victims. However, post‐seismic tsunamis were particularly devastating on that day; surprisingly, no full alert was launched, not at the national, regional or local level. This earthquake and associated tsunamis are of interest in the context of natural hazards management as well as crisis management planning. Instead of focusing exclusively on the event itself, this article places emphasis on the process, systems and long‐term approach that led the tsunami alert mechanism to be ineffectual. Notably, this perspective reveals interrelated forerunner signs of vulnerability.     

减灾事业的发展和综合减灾

中国减灾事业的发展史可分3个阶段:第一阶段是新中国成立以前的几千年,减灾活动以赈灾为主,帝王“祭天求恕”,“防灾吏制”,安抚于民。清末民初1800至1949年间计发生巨灾25起,死亡4993万余人,总灾亡则近亿,年均灾亡60万人以上,这段惨痛的灾况记下了十分难得的灾情史,泣血于残野。新中国成立后,在“为人民服务”的思想指导下,为减轻灾害损失,逐步建立了气象、水利、农林、地震、海洋、地质等专业的灾害科技与减灾工程,政府并组织社会兼事抗灾、救灾、应急减灾,国家减灾实力快速增长,已取得突出减灾实效,这个阶段比第一阶段灾亡人数下降了90%以上,但年均灾亡人口仍有1.2万人左右。该阶段的工作特点是以单灾种纵向体系为主,不同灾类的监测、预报水平尚高低不一,这与成灾机理的难易程度和工作条件的强弱有关。21世纪初,随全球增温之势锐升,多类极端灾变遍及各洲,促使许多国家发动全社会人众共同探求“综合减灾”之路;我国政府已迅即开展全社会应急减灾行动,开启了“综合减灾”之先声,这是减灾事业步入第三阶段的先导。综合减灾应该是全社会相关部门和民众的统一行动。目前尚有3个问题需要弄清楚,一是多种自然灾害之间成灾机理相关性的研究,其对象是灾害群与灾害链;二是全社会减灾要素综合运作预案的优选;三是如何核算减灾投入与社会可持续发展之正、负效应关系。     

河南省自然灾害的地域分界规律

河南省自然灾害的地域空间分异，主要遵循水平地带性规律、非地带性规律与垂直地带性规律。水平地带性主要影响以致控制灾害的不同类型，非地带性与垂直地带性则主要影响各种灾害的成灾强度。它们相互联系与制约，从而形成该省域灾害的三维分异。     

自然灾害风险损失等评估的初步研究

在综述国内外自然灾害风险损失评估研究成果的基础上,运用归一化原理,对灾害风险度和灾害损失度的相对等级进行了划分,提出了单一灾种和复合灾种灾害风险损失度相对等级的划分方案和划分方法,然后依据不同灾种在时间上和空间上的叠加性以及机理上的关联性,对区域自然灾害风险损失等级评估方法和评估体系进行了初步探讨。     

A review of coastal community vulnerabilities toward resilience benefits from disaster reduction measures

The coast has always been an area of significant hazards. In situations of community self-sufficiency, consequences of coastal hazards might be isolated to regions directly affected by the hazard. But, in the current global economy, fewer and fewer communities are isolated; damage to one location frequently has consequences around the globe and coastal community resilience can have broad-reaching benefits. Hazard responses for the built coastal environment have typically been resistance: constructing stronger buildings, enhancing natural barriers or creating artificial barriers. These approaches to hazard reduction through coastal engineering and shoreline defence efforts have been crucial to sustained coastal development. However, as coastal forces continue or magnify and resources become scarcer, resistance alone may be less effective or even unsustainable, and interest in resilience has grown. Resilience is a community's ability either to absorb destructive forces without loss of service or function, or to recover quickly from disasters. Community resilience encompasses multiple elements, ranging from governance to structural design, risk knowledge, prevention, warning systems and recovery. This paper focuses on hazards of coastal communities, and provides a review of some recent engineering efforts to improve the resilience elements of risk knowledge and disaster warnings for coastal disaster reduction.     

陕西韩城矿区地表沉降变形研究

陕西韩城市地质灾害类型比较单一，主要是由于对煤炭资源的不合理开采而引起的地裂缝、地面沉降，他们是影响当地经济发展和城乡建设的一个主要因素。对韩城市受灾区的地裂缝特征从天然和人为因素两方面进行了研究，在了解地下预留煤柱分布图后，对地裂缝的形成机理做了理论推导，认识到随着对煤炭资源掠夺式开采的加剧，地裂缝在空间上的分布与煤炭开采的方位有关，地裂缝的发展和开采速度等的关系也很密切。研究结果对韩城矿区的地下采矿有一定的借鉴意义。     

基于GIS的南通市自然灾害风险区划

本文从自然致灾因子危险性和承灾体易损性2个方面选取评价指标,在南通市基础图件的基础上,通过GIS软件分析分别得到南通市自然致灾因子危险性分区图和社会经济易损性分区图.两图叠加后,生成南通市自然灾害风险区划基本单元,采用自下而上的定量区划方法,合并得到自然灾害风险区划图,最后分别论述了每个风险区的自然灾害和社会经济的特征.通过对风险区划指标和区域划分的探讨,以期为南通市防灾减灾工作提供科学依据.     

江西农田鼠害及其防治措施

农田鼠害是江西农业生物灾害中的主要灾种之一,它具有发生面积之、造成损失重、灾情越来越严重的特点,本文在回顾了江西农田鼠发生概况的基础上,简述了农田害鼠的种类、分布、主要特征及其发生发展规律,并从自然因素和人为因素等方面分析了鼠害成灾的主要原因,最后,提出了农田鼠害的防治措施。     

灾害风险感知研究方法与应用综述

阐述了风险感知的基本内涵、影响因素以及主流的研究方法,总结了风险感知研究方法的最新发展,归纳了近年来国内外灾害风险感知相关理论研究和实证研究,并对灾害风险感知研究的发展趋势进行了展望,提出了未来灾害风险感知研究中应当完善的问题。     

The secret history of natural disaster

Abstract

This paper explores the failure of historians to properly engage the study of natural hazards. It argues that by focusing mainly on individual calamities, historians have overlooked the larger social and economic forces that have shaped the response to natural disaster over the last century. Two important trends, real estate capitalism and the entry of the state into the political economy of hazards after World War II, are singled out as crucial for understanding US society's response to natural disaster. As a result of these historical forces, risk became a commodity, with harmful environmental consequences.     

云南省农业自然灾害区划指标之探讨

自然灾害区划是防灾减灾和灾害科学研究的重要内容，而正确地选取区划指标是进行区划工作的关键环节。本文作为《云南省农业自然灾害区划研究》课题的一部分，在探讨各单项灾害（干旱、洪涝、低温霜冻、风雹、水土流失）区划指标的基础上，提出了综合农业自然灾害区划的基本指标－即“综合农业自然灾害指数”，并对指标进行了分级，为区划工作提供了依据。     

Classification of residential areas according to physical vulnerability to natural hazards: a case study of Çanakkale,Turkey

The selection of new settlement areas and the construction of safe buildings, as well as rendering built‐up areas safe, are of great importance in mitigating the damage caused by natural disasters. Most cities in Turkey are unprepared for natural hazards. In this paper, Çanakkale, located in a first‐degree seismic zone and sprawled around the Sartçay Delta, is examined in terms of its physical vulnerability to natural hazards. Residential areas are analysed using GIS (geographic information system) and remote‐sensing technologies in relation to selected indicators. Residential areas of the city are divided into zones according to an evaluation of geological characteristics, the built‐up area's features, and urban infrastructure, and four risk zones are determined. The results of the analysis show that the areas of the city suitable for housing are very limited. In addition, the historical centre and the housing areas near Sartçay stream are shown to be most problematic in terms of natural disasters and sustainability.     

山东省主要自然灾害初步综合分区

本文通过发生于山东省境内的各种主要自然灾害的分析，给出山东省主要自然灾害类型，结合山东省的自然地理、地质等特征，对自然灾害的区域分布进行了初步综合分区。