Comparison of emissions estimates derived from atmospheric measurements with national estimates of HFCs,PFCs and SF6

This paper assesses the feasibility of using atmospheric measurement of fluorinated greenhouse gases (HFCs, PFCs and SF6) for the review and verification of greenhouse gas inventories provided by national governments. For this purpose, available data were compiled. It was found that atmospheric measurements of these gases are available and provide an indication of global annual emissions with sufficient certainty to reach the following conclusions: Within the uncertainty of the method, it was found that emissions of HFC-23, a by-product of HCFC-22 production, as obtained from atmospheric measurements did not decrease as fast, as the countries have reported. In contrast, SF6 concentrations in the atmosphere suggest higher emissions than reported by countries. Regional emission estimates from atmospheric measurements are still in a more pioneering state and cannot be compared to national estimates. Intensified efforts to measure HFCs, PFCs and SF6 in the atmosphere are recommended.     

Stabilization of the Greenhouse Impact Caused by Anthropogenic Emissions from Nordic Countries

Abstract

The possibility of decreasing the Nordic countries’ contribution to global warming in the future is examined. Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are considered. Global average radiative forcing is used as a measure of the greenhouse impact caused by the emissions. Past emissions are included in the study because they have impact far into the future. The calculation method utilized in this study can be applied to any other country.

Two hypothetical future emission development cases are presented, and the radiative forcing caused by them is calculated. In the higher emission (case A) CO2 emissions remain above current level, while N2O and CH4 emissions decrease. In the lower emission (case B) the emissions decrease to about one–tenth of the current emissions by the year 2100.

Only if very strict emission reductions (case B) take place will the greenhouse impact of the Nordic countries return to current levels during next century. Likewise, the per capita radiative forcing of Nordic countries will remain above global average unless the emissions decrease drastically (case B) and the current population levels are used in per capita calculation.     

Forest fire emissions in Portugal: a contribution to global warming?

A forecast of expected evolution of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions in Portugal between 1988 and 2010 is presented. Predictions show that CO(2) emissions will almost double in the next twenty years. The equivalent potential CO(2) emissions from nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) and volatile organic compounds (VOC), for a time horizon of 20 years, is also presented. NO(x) and VOC emissions seem to make a significant contribution to the global warming potential of Portuguese emissions. Estimates of CO(2) emissions due to forest fires have been made, oriented towards the study of the Portuguese contribution to the global warming. If the burned area exceeds 100 000 ha this contribution could reach 7% of the total Portuguese CO(2) emissions. The global warming potential of Portuguese forest emissions were also calculated. The climate change predicted to Portugal could be responsible for an increase in the forest fires and consequently for a greater contribution of its emissions to the total values. It was concluded that it is important to quantify emissions of the greenhouse gases, including the contribution of forest fire emissions, not only in Portugal, but in all the Southern European countries.     

Models to predict emissions of health-damaging pollutants and global warming contributions of residential fuel/stove combinations in China

Residential energy use in developing countries has traditionally been associated with combustion devices of poor energy efficiency, which have been shown to produce substantial health-damaging pollution, contributing significantly to the global burden of disease, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Precision of these estimates in China has been hampered by limited data on stove use and fuel consumption in residences. In addition limited information is available on variability of emissions of pollutants from different stove/fuel combinations in typical use, as measurement of emission factors requires measurement of multiple chemical species in complex burn cycle tests. Such measurements are too costly and time consuming for application in conjunction with national surveys. Emissions of most of the major health-damaging pollutants (HDP) and many of the gases that contribute to GHG emissions from cooking stoves are the result of the significant portion of fuel carbon that is diverted to products of incomplete combustion (PIC) as a result of poor combustion efficiencies. The approximately linear increase in emissions of PIC with decreasing combustion efficiencies allows development of linear models to predict emissions of GHG and HDP intrinsically linked to CO2 and PIC production, and ultimately allows the prediction of global warming contributions from residential stove emissions. A comprehensive emissions database of three burn cycles of 23 typical fuel/stove combinations tested in a simulated village house in China has been used to develop models to predict emissions of HDP and global warming commitment (GWC) from cooking stoves in China, that rely on simple survey information on stove and fuel use that may be incorporated into national surveys. Stepwise regression models predicted 66% of the variance in global warming commitment (CO2, CO, CH4, NOx, TNMHC) per 1 MJ delivered energy due to emissions from these stoves if survey information on fuel type was available. Subsequently if stove type is known, stepwise regression models predicted 73% of the variance. Integrated assessment of policies to change stove or fuel type requires that implications for environmental impacts, energy efficiency, global warming and human exposures to HDP emissions can be evaluated. Frequently, this involves measurement of TSP or CO as the major HDPs. Incorporation of this information into models to predict GWC predicted 79% and 78% of the variance respectively. Clearly, however, the complexity of making multiple measurements in conjunction with a national survey would be both expensive and time consuming. Thus, models to predict HDP using simple survey information, and with measurement of either CO/CO2 or TSP/CO2 to predict emission factors for the other HDP have been derived. Stepwise regression models predicted 65% of the variance in emissions of total suspended particulate as grams of carbon (TSPC) per 1 MJ delivered if survey information on fuel and stove type was available and 74% if the CO/CO2 ratio was measured. Similarly stepwise regression models predicted 76% of the variance in COC emissions per MJ delivered with survey information on stove and fuel type and 85% if the TSPC/CO2 ratio was measured. Ultimately, with international agreements on emissions trading frameworks, similar models based on extensive databases of the fate of fuel carbon during combustion from representative household stoves would provide a mechanism for computing greenhouse credits in the residential sector as part of clean development mechanism frameworks and monitoring compliance to control regimes.     

State of energy consumption and CO2 emission in Bangladesh

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is one of the most important gases in the atmosphere, and is necessary for sustaining life on Earth. It is also considered to be a major greenhouse gas contributing to global warming and climate change. In this article, energy consumption in Bangladesh is analyzed and estimates are made of CO2 emission from combustion of fossil fuel (coal, gas, petroleum products) for the period 1977 to 1995. International Panel for Climate Change guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories were used in estimating CO2 emission. An analysis of energy data shows that the consumption of fossil fuels in Bangladesh is growing by more than 5% per year. The proportion of natural gas in total energy consumption is increasing, while that of petroleum products and coal is decreasing. The estimated total CO2 release from all primary fossil fuels used in Bangladesh amounted to 5072 Gigagram (Gg) in 1977, and 14 423 Gg in 1995. The total amounts of CO2 released from petroleum products, natural gas, and coal in the period 1977-1995 were 83 026 Gg (50% of CO2 emission), 72 541 Gg (44% of CO2 emission), and 9545 Gg (6% CO2 emission), respectively. A trend in CO2 emission with projections to 2070 is generated. In 2070, total estimated CO2 emission will be 293 260 Gg with a current growth rate of 6.34% y . CO2 emission from fossil fuels is increasing. Petroleum products contribute the majority of CO2 emission load, and although the use of natural gas is increasing rapidly, its contribution to CO2 emission is less than that of petroleum products. The use of coal as well as CO2 emission from coal is expected to gradually decrease.     

Prospects for future climate change and the reasons for early action

Combustion of coal, oil, and natural gas, and to a lesser extent deforestation, land-cover change, and emissions of halocarbons and other greenhouse gases, are rapidly increasing the atmospheric concentrations of climate-warming gases. The warming of approximately 0.1-0.2 degrees C per decade that has resulted is very likely the primary cause of the increasing loss of snow cover and Arctic sea ice, of more frequent occurrence of very heavy precipitation, of rising sea level, and of shifts in the natural ranges of plants and animals. The global average temperature is already approximately 0.8 degrees C above its preindustrial level, and present atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases will contribute to further warming of 0.5-1 degrees C as equilibrium is re-established. Warming has been and will be greater in mid and high latitudes compared with low latitudes, over land compared with oceans, and at night compared with day. As emissions continue to increase, both warming and the commitment to future warming are presently increasing at a rate of approximately 0.2 degrees C per decade, with projections that the rate of warming will further increase if emission controls are not put in place. Such warming and the associated changes are likely to result in severe impacts on key societal and environmental support systems. Present estimates are that limiting the increase in global average surface temperature to no more than 2-2.5 degrees C above its 1750 value of approximately 15 degrees C will be required to avoid the most catastrophic, but certainly not all, consequences of climate change. Accomplishing this will require reducing emissions sharply by 2050 and to near zero by 2100. This can only be achieved if: (1) developed nations move rapidly to demonstrate that a modem society can function without reliance on technologies that release carbon dioxide (CO2) and other non-CO2 greenhouse gases to the atmosphere; and (2) if developing nations act in the near-term to sharply limit their non-CO2 emissions while minimizing growth in CO2 emissions, and then in the long-term join with the developed nations to reduce all emissions as cost-effective technologies are developed.     

An overview of environmental hazards and exposure risk of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are being used as replacements for chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) that cause significantly stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming. HFCs under commercial uses as cleaning solvents in the electronic components, blowing agent in the foamed plastics, refrigerant in the air conditioning units and refrigerators, fire suppression agent in the fire protection, propellant in the metered dose inhalers (MDIs), and dry etching agent in the semiconductor manufacturing. Among these HFCs, 1,1,1,2-tetrafluoroethane (HFC-134a) is the most widely used one. From the environmental, ecological, and health points of view, it is urgent to mitigate and control the emissions of these HFCs from a diversity of commercial applications and industrial processes. This article aims to introduce these HFCs in commercial uses and environmental hazards (i.e., global warming, photochemical potential, flammability safety, environmental partition and ecotoxicity). Further, the updated data on the human toxicity, occupational exposure and health risk of these HFCs (esp., HFC-134a) are addressed in this review paper.     

Carbon emission from global hydroelectric reservoirs revisited

Substantial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from hydropower reservoirs have been of great concerns recently, yet the significant carbon emitters of drawdown area and reservoir downstream (including spillways and turbines as well as river reaches below dams) have not been included in global carbon budget. Here, we revisit GHG emission from hydropower reservoirs by considering reservoir surface area, drawdown zone and reservoir downstream. Our estimates demonstrate around 301.3 Tg carbon dioxide (CO₂)/year and 18.7 Tg methane (CH₄)/year from global hydroelectric reservoirs, which are much higher than recent observations. The sum of drawdown and downstream emission, which is generally overlooked, represents 42 % CO₂ and 67 % CH₄ of the total emissions from hydropower reservoirs. Accordingly, the global average emissions from hydropower are estimated to be 92 g CO₂/kWh and 5.7 g CH₄/kWh. Nonetheless, global hydroelectricity could currently reduce approximate 2,351 Tg CO₂eq/year with respect to fuel fossil plant alternative. The new findings show a substantial revision of carbon emission from the global hydropower reservoirs.     

The geographic distribution and economic value of climate change-related ozone health impacts in the United States in 2030

In this United States-focused analysis we use outputs from two general circulation models (GCMs) driven by different greenhouse gas forcing scenarios as inputs to regional climate and chemical transport models to investigate potential changes in near-term U.S. air quality due to climate change. We conduct multiyear simulations to account for interannual variability and characterize the near-term influence of a changing climate on tropospheric ozone-related health impacts near the year 2030, which is a policy-relevant time frame that is subject to fewer uncertainties than other approaches employed in the literature. We adopt a 2030 emissions inventory that accounts for fully implementing anthropogenic emissions controls required by federal, state, and/or local policies, which is projected to strongly influence future ozone levels. We quantify a comprehensive suite of ozone-related mortality and morbidity impacts including emergency department visits, hospital admissions, acute respiratory symptoms, and lost school days, and estimate the economic value of these impacts. Both GCMs project average daily maximum temperature to increase by 1–4°C and 1–5 ppb increases in daily 8-hr maximum ozone at 2030, though each climate scenario produces ozone levels that vary greatly over space and time. We estimate tens to thousands of additional ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses per year for these two scenarios and calculate an economic burden of these health outcomes of hundreds of millions to tens of billions of U.S. dollars (2010$).

Implications:?Near-term changes to the climate have the potential to greatly affect ground-level ozone. Using a 2030 emission inventory with regional climate fields downscaled from two general circulation models, we project mean temperature increases of 1 to 4°C and climate-driven mean daily 8-hr maximum ozone increases of 1–5 ppb, though each climate scenario produces ozone levels that vary significantly over space and time. These increased ozone levels are estimated to result in tens to thousands of ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses per year and an economic burden of hundreds of millions to tens of billions of U.S. dollars (2010$).     

Global change: state of the science

Only recently, within a few decades, have we realized that humanity significantly influences the global environment. In the early 1980s, atmospheric measurements confirmed basic concepts developed a decade earlier. These basic concepts showed that human activities were affecting the ozone layer. Later measurements and theoretical analyses have clearly connected observed changes in ozone to human-related increases of chlorine and bromine in the stratosphere. As a result of prompt international policy agreements, the combined abundances of ozone-depleting compounds peaked in 1994 and ozone is already beginning a slow path to recovery. A much more difficult problem confronting humanity is the impact of increasing levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases on global climate. The processes that connect greenhouse gas emissions to climate are very complex. This complexity has limited our ability to make a definitive projection of future climate change. Nevertheless, the range of projected climate change shows that global warming has the potential to severely impact human welfare and our planet as a whole. This paper evaluates the state of the scientific understanding of the global change issues, their potential impacts, and the relationships of scientific understanding to policy considerations.     

Sustainable development and pollution: the effects of CO2 emission on population growth,food production,economic development,and energy consumption in Pakistan

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Population growth has been a leading driver of global CO2 emissions over the last several decades. CO2 emission and greenhouse gas emissions are a key...     

2种典型餐厨垃圾资源化处理工艺的环境影响分析

为了评估餐厨垃圾资源化处理工艺对环境的影响,运用生命周期评价的方法,比较了2种典型的资源化处理工艺——好氧堆肥和湿热处理对环境的影响。结果表明,2种餐厨垃圾资源化处理工艺对全球变暖、生态毒性、酸化和富营养化的影响各有不同。其中,好氧堆肥对全球变暖的贡献较大,碳排放为337.7 kg CO_2eq./t。湿热处理为163.1 kg CO_2eq./t。在环境影响负荷方面,湿热处理工艺中的高能耗加重了毒性的影响。但由于其对环境的酸化、富营养化的不利影响较小,湿热处理的环境影响负荷总值是好氧堆肥的62.5%。总体上,湿热处理是一种对环境影响较小的餐厨垃圾处理工艺。     

Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Shipping

Emissions of exhaust gases and particles from oceangoing ships are a significant and growing contributor to the total emissions from the transportation sector. We present an assessment of the contribution of gaseous and particulate emissions from oceangoing shipping to anthropogenic emissions and air quality. We also assess the degradation in human health and climate change created by these emissions. Regulating ship emissions requires comprehensive knowledge of current fuel consumption and emissions, understanding of their impact on atmospheric composition and climate, and projections of potential future evolutions and mitigation options. Nearly 70% of ship emissions occur within 400 km of coastlines, causing air quality problems through the formation of ground-level ozone, sulphur emissions and particulate matter in coastal areas and harbours with heavy traffic. Furthermore, ozone and aerosol precursor emissions as well as their derivative species from ships may be transported in the atmosphere over several hundreds of kilometres, and thus contribute to air quality problems further inland, even though they are emitted at sea. In addition, ship emissions impact climate. Recent studies indicate that the cooling due to altered clouds far outweighs the warming effects from greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO₂) or ozone from shipping, overall causing a negative present-day radiative forcing (RF). Current efforts to reduce sulphur and other pollutants from shipping may modify this. However, given the short residence time of sulphate compared to CO₂, the climate response from sulphate is of the order decades while that of CO₂ is centuries. The climatic trade-off between positive and negative radiative forcing is still a topic of scientific research, but from what is currently known, a simple cancellation of global mean forcing components is potentially inappropriate and a more comprehensive assessment metric is required. The CO₂ equivalent emissions using the global temperature change potential (GTP) metric indicate that after 50 years the net global mean effect of current emissions is close to zero through cancellation of warming by CO₂ and cooling by sulphate and nitrogen oxides.     

Predicting emissions from oil and gas operations in the Uinta Basin,Utah

In this study, emissions of ozone precursors from oil and gas operations in Utah’s Uinta Basin are predicted (with uncertainty estimates) from 2015–2019 using a Monte-Carlo model of (a) drilling and production activity, and (b) emission factors. Cross-validation tests against actual drilling and production data from 2010–2014 show that the model can accurately predict both types of activities, returning median results that are within 5% of actual values for drilling, 0.1% for oil production, and 4% for gas production. A variety of one-time (drilling) and ongoing (oil and gas production) emission factors for greenhouse gases, methane, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are applied to the predicted oil and gas operations. Based on the range of emission factor values reported in the literature, emissions from well completions are the most significant source of emissions, followed by gas transmission and production. We estimate that the annual average VOC emissions rate for the oil and gas industry over the 2010–2015 time period was 44.2E+06 (mean) ± 12.8E+06 (standard deviation) kg VOCs per year (with all applicable emissions reductions). On the same basis, over the 2015–2019 period annual average VOC emissions from oil and gas operations are expected to drop 45% to 24.2E+06 ± 3.43E+06 kg VOCs per year, due to decreases in drilling activity and tighter emission standards.

Implications: This study improves upon previous methods for estimating emissions of ozone precursors from oil and gas operations in Utah’s Uinta Basin by tracking one-time and ongoing emission events on a well-by-well basis. The proposed method has proven highly accurate at predicting drilling and production activity and includes uncertainty estimates to describe the range of potential emissions inventory outcomes. If similar input data are available in other oil and gas producing regions, then the method developed here could be applied to those regions as well.     

Trends in on-road vehicle emissions and ambient air quality in Atlanta,Georgia, USA,from the late 1990s through 2009

On-road vehicle emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) during 1995–2009 in the Atlanta Metropolitan Statistical Area were estimated using the Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) model and data from the National Emissions Inventories and the State of Georgia. Statistically significant downward trends (computed using the nonparametric Theil-Sen method) in annual on-road CO, NO_x, and VOC emissions of 6.1%, 3.3%, and 6.0% per year, respectively, are noted during the 1995–2009 period despite an increase in total vehicle distance traveled. The CO and NO_x emission trends are correlated with statistically significant downward trends in ambient air concentrations of CO and NO_x in Atlanta ranging from 8.0% to 11.8% per year and from 5.8% to 8.7% per year, respectively, during similar time periods. Weather-adjusted summertime ozone concentrations in Atlanta exhibited a statistically significant declining trend of 2.3% per year during 2001–2009. Although this trend coexists with the declining trends in on-road NO_x, VOC, and CO emissions, identifying the cause of the downward trend in ozone is complicated by reductions in multiple precursors from different source sectors.

Implications:Large reductions in on-road vehicle emissions of CO and NO_x in Atlanta from the late 1990s to 2009, despite an increase in total vehicle distance traveled, contributed to a significant improvement in air quality through decreases in ambient air concentrations of CO and NO_x during this time period. Emissions reductions in motor vehicles and other source sectors resulted in these improvements and the observed declining trend in ozone concentrations over the past decade. Although these historical trends cannot be extrapolated to the future because pollutant concentration contributions due to on-road vehicle emissions will likely become an increasingly smaller fraction of the atmospheric total, they provide an indication of the benefits of past control measures.     

CO_2排放导致的地球温升问题及基本技术对策

本文介绍了由于ＣＯ２ 的排放而导致的地球温升问题的基本概念，分析了燃烧化石燃料排放的ＣＯ２ 作为温室气体所表现的性质及其对地球环境的影响。介绍了国际上为削减ＣＯ２ 排放所采取的各种措施，着重介绍了化学吸收法、物理吸附法和膜分离法的基本原理及系统构成。     

Future land use and land cover influences on regional biogenic emissions and air quality in the United States

A regional modeling system was applied with inputs from global climate and chemistry models to quantify the effects of global change on future biogenic emissions and their impacts on ozone and biogenic secondary organic aerosols (BSOA) in the US. Biogenic emissions in the future are influenced by projected changes in global and regional climates and by variations in future land use and land cover (LULC). The modeling system was applied for five summer months for the present-day case (1990–1999, Case 1) and three future cases covering 2045–2054. Individual future cases were: present-day LULC (Case 2); projected-future LULC (Case 3); and future LULC with designated regions of tree planting for carbon sequestration (Case 4). Results showed changing future meteorology with present-day LULC (Case 2) increased average isoprene and monoterpene emission rates by 26% and 20% due to higher temperature and solar insolation. However when LULC was changed together with climate (Case 3), predicted isoprene and monoterpene emissions decreased by 52% and 31%, respectively, due primarily to projected cropland expansion. The reduction was less, at 31% and 14% respectively, when future LULC changes were accompanied by regions of tree planting (Case 4). Despite the large decrease in biogenic emission, future average daily maximum 8-h (DM8H) ozone was found to increase between +8 ppbv and +10 ppbv due to high future anthropogenic emissions and global chemistry conditions. Among the future cases, changing LULC resulted in spatially varying future ozone differences of ?5 ppbv to +5 ppbv when compared with present-day case. Future BSOA changed directly with the estimated monoterpene emissions. BSOA increased by 8% with current LULC (Case 2) but decreased by 45%–28% due to future LULC changes. Overall, the results demonstrated that on a regional basis, changes in LULC can offset temperature driven increases in biogenic emissions, and, thus, LULC projection is an important factor to consider in the study of future regional air quality.     

The contribution from shipping emissions to air quality and acid deposition in Europe

A global three-dimensional Lagrangian chemistry-transport model STOCHEM is used to describe the European regional acid deposition and ozone air quality impacts along the Atlantic Ocean seaboard of Europe, from the SO2, NOx, VOCs and CO emissions from international shipping under conditions appropriate to the year 2000. Model-derived total sulfur deposition from international shipping reaches over 200 mg S m(-2) yr(-1) over the southwestern approaches to the British Isles and Brittany. The contribution from international shipping to surface ozone concentrations during the summertime, peaks at about 6 ppb over Ireland, Brittany and Portugal. Shipping emissions act as an external influence on acid deposition and ozone air quality within Europe and may require control actions in the future if strict deposition and air quality targets are to be met.     

The origin of stable halogenated compounds in volcanic gases

BACKGROUND: Halogenated compounds in the atmosphere are of great environmental concern due to their demonstrated negative effect on atmospheric chemistry and climate. Detailed knowledge of the emission budgets of halogenated compounds has to be gained to understand better their specific impact on ozone chemistry and the climate. Such data are also highly relevant to guide policy decisions in connexion with international agreements about protection of the ozone layer. In selected cases, the relevance of specific emission sources for certain compounds were unclear. In this study we present new and comprehensive evidence regarding the existence and relevance of a volcanic contribution of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), halons (bromine containing halo(hydro)carbons), and fully fluorinated compounds (e.g. CF4 and SF6) to the atmospheric budget. METHODS: In order to obtain new evidence of a volcanic origin of these compounds, we collected repeatedly, during four field campaigns covering a period of two years, gases from fumaroles discharging over a wide range of temperatures at the Nicaraguan subduction zone volcanoes Momotombo, Cerro Negro and Mombacho, and analysed them with very sensitive GC/MS systems. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: In most fumarolic samples certain CFCs, HFCs, HCFCs, halons, and the fully fluorinated compounds CF4 and SF6 were present above detection limits. However, these compounds occur in the fumarole gases in relative proportions characteristic for ambient air. CONCLUSION: This atmospheric fingerprint can be explained by variable amounts of air entering the porous volcanic edifices and successively being incorporated into the fumarolic gas discharges. Recommendation and Outlook. Our results suggest that the investigated volcanoes do not constitute a significant natural source for CFCs, HFCs, HCFCs, halons, CF4, SF6 and NF3.     

Projected ozone trends and changes in the ozone-precursor relationship in the South Coast Air Basin in response to varying reductions of precursor emissions

This study examined the effects of varying future reductions in emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) and volatile organic compounds (VOC) on the location and magnitude of peak ozone levels within California’s South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB or Basin). As ozone formation is currently VOC-limited in the Basin, model simulations with 2030 baseline emissions (?61% for NO_x and ?32% for VOC from 2008) predict 10–20% higher peak ozone levels (i.e., NO_x disbenefit) in the western and central SoCAB compared with the 2008 base simulation. With additional NO_x reductions of 50% beyond the 2030 baseline emissions (?81% from 2008), the predicted ozone levels are reduced by about 15% in the eastern SoCAB but remain comparable to 2008 levels in the western and central Basin. The Basin maximum ozone site shifts westward to more populated areas of the Basin and will result potentially in greater population-weighted exposure to ozone with even a relatively small shortfall in the required NO_x reductions unless accompanied by additional VOC reductions beyond 2030 baseline levels. Once committed to a NO_x-focused control strategy, NO_x reductions exceeding 90% from 2008 levels will be necessary to attain the ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). The findings from this study and other recent work that the current VOC emission estimates are underestimated by about 50% suggest that greater future VOC reductions will be necessary to reach the projected 2030 baseline emissions. Increasing the base year VOC emissions by a factor of 1.5 result in higher 2008 baseline ozone predictions, lower relative response factors, and about 20% lower projected design values. If correct, these findings have important implications for the total and optimum mix of VOC and NO_x emission reductions that will be required to attain the ozone NAAQS in the SoCAB.

Implications: Results of this study indicate that ozone levels in the western and central SoCAB would remain the same or increase with even a relatively small shortfall in the projected NO_x reductions under planned NO_x-focused controls. This possibility, therefore, warrants a rigorous analysis of the costs and effects of varying reductions of VOC and NO_x on the formation and combined health impacts of ozone and secondary particles. Given the nonlinearity of ozone formation, such analyses should include the implications of gradually increasing global background ozone concentrations and the Basin’s topography and meteorology on the practical limits of alternative emission control strategies.