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1.
Economic losses caused by tropical cyclones have increased dramatically. Historical changes in losses are a result of meteorological factors (changes in the incidence of severe cyclones, whether due to natural climate variability or as a result of human activity) and socio-economic factors (increased prosperity and a greater tendency for people to settle in exposed areas). This paper aims to isolate the socio-economic effects and ascertain the potential impact of climate change on this trend. Storm losses for the period 1950–2005 have been adjusted to the value of capital stock in 2005 so that any remaining trend cannot be ascribed to socio-economic developments. For this, we introduce a new approach to adjusting losses based on the change in capital stock at risk. Storm losses are mainly determined by the intensity of the storm and the material assets, such as property and infrastructure, located in the region affected. We therefore adjust the losses to exclude increases in the capital stock of the affected region. No trend is found for the period 1950–2005 as a whole. In the period 1971–2005, since the beginning of a trend towards increased intense cyclone activity, losses excluding socio-economic effects show an annual increase of 4% per annum. This increase must therefore be at least due to the impact of natural climate variability but, more likely than not, also due to anthropogenic forcings.  相似文献   

2.
Data on individual tree mortality in relatively healthy (Berezinskiy biosphere reserve) and damaged (surroundings of the mineral fertilizer plant ‘Achema’) even-aged Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stands are presented. Tree size and competition intensity were found to be the most significant predictors of individual tree mortality in all age groups of the relatively healthy Scots pine stands, however, an essential reduction in the closeness of relations between the tree mortality rate and these variables was determined with the aging of stands. An exponential decrease in tree mortality probability with an increase of tree size is characteristic for trees suffering different competition intensity, however, this decrease becomes much more pronounced as the competition pressure increases. The relations of different tree and stand variables with tree mortality probability have been found to become much weaker in the polluted environment. An exponential increase in tree mortality probability with an increase of crown defoliation was characteristic of damaged Scots pine stands, however, the rate of the increase was different in different age and diameter classes. The impact of crown defoliation on tree mortality rate increased with the aging of stands. At the same defoliation level, individual tree mortality probability was much higher for smaller suppressed trees, however, a relative increase in tree mortality probability along with an increase of crown defoliation was more pronounced for dominant trees. Conclusion: a higher mortality of damaged (defoliated) trees should be considered while assessing losses in forest productivity in a polluted environment.  相似文献   

3.
A cylindrical dialysis sampler (1.2 m in length; 5 cm in diameter) was designed and constructed to sample small–scale phytoremediation processes in the root zone of poplar trees. The study site was a 183–tree plantation of hybrid poplars located at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland, at the J–Field Area of Concern. The grove was planted in 1996 to intercept a chlorinated solvent plume containing 1,1,2,2–tetrachloroethane (1,1,2,2–TeCA, trichloroethene (TCE) and daughter products. Two dialysis samplers were installed: one directly in the poplar grove (approximately 0.3 m from the trunk of a mature tree) and the other outside of the grove but in the plume. Data collected included concentrations of chlorinated VOCs, organic acids, chloroacetic acids, Cl, and dissolved gases (ethane, ethene, CH4, CO2). At the control location, the VOC profile was dominated by cis– 1,2–dichloroethene (cis–1,2–DCE) and trans–1,2–dichloroethene (trans–1,2–DCE) with concentrations ranging from 0.88-4.5 to 4.4-17.6 mg/L, respectively. Concentrations of VOCs were similar across the vertical profile. At the tree location, 1,1,2,2–TeCA and TCE were the dominant VOCs detected but as opposed to the control location were highly variable within the root zone, with the greatest variability associated with locations in the sampler where roots were observed. This highly variable profile at the tree location is indicative of VOC rhizosphere biodegradation and uptake near the active roots. This variability appears to be on the centimeter scale, emphasizing the importance of these high–resolution samplers for the study of rhizosphere influences.  相似文献   

4.
The study assesses the ecological impact caused by the El Salvador untreated (1975–1990) and treated (1991–1994) copper mine tailings on rocky intertidal communities in and around the dumping site at Caleta Palito, northern Chile. Ecological changes are monitored for 16 years in polluted and unpolluted sites within a geographical area of 90 km. Copper concentration levels in water and the intertidal Chlorophyta E. compressa are presented. The results confirm a notorious reduction in the number of species and significant differences between polluted and unpolluted intertidal communities. At polluted sites, following the initiation of the disposal, all species of invertebrates and algae disappeared and primary space (rock) was partially or completely dominated by E. compressa along more than a decade. Its persistence in these sites supports the view that this taxon is a sentinel species resisting high levels of copper pollution. During the past four years, following the steps given to treat the tailings, at polluted sites there are preliminary indications showing increases in the number of species of algae and invertebrate. The need for future monitoring to elucidate ecosystem restoration processes is discussed.  相似文献   

5.
This article presents the results of the first critical examination of time series of riverine nutrient-load data for the entire Baltic Sea drainage area. Water quality data collected by or for the different national environmental agencies were compiled and analysed statistically to identify and remove inconsistent or obviously incorrect observations. Moreover, sampling tours were undertaken to acquire additional information about the present nutrient concentrations in the largest rivers in the study area. Gaps in the time series of approved data were then filled in by employing statistical interpolation and extrapolation methods. Thereafter, the concentration and runoff data were combined to obtain estimates of monthly nutrient loads for the time period 1970–93. The results of the calculations showed that although there had been substantial changes in land use, atmospheric deposition and wastewater treatment in many parts of the study area, the total riverine loads of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) to the Baltic Sea have been fairly constant since 1980, and most likely also since 1970. Moreover, the interannual variation was clearly correlated to the runoff. The mean annual loads for the time period 1980–93 were found to be about 825 000 tonnes N and 41 000 tonnes P, respectively. This implies that (i) several other investigators have strongly underestimated the riverine loads of nutrients, especially the nitrogen, and that (ii) the riverine loads by far exceed the input to the Baltic Sea from other sources, {i.e.} atmospheric deposition, direct emissions from cities and industries along the Baltic Sea coast and nitrogen fixation by marine algae.  相似文献   

6.
Long-term influence of alkaline dust (pH 12.3–12.7) pollution emitted over 40 years from a cement plant in Estonia was the reason of alkalisation (pH 6.7–7.9) and high concentrations of K, Ca and Mg in the soil of affected territories. Although dust emission has diminished during the last 10 years, the disbalances in nutrition substrate and their influence on the growth of trees are notable up to now. The study of morphological and physical properties of 70–80-year-old Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) crown, stems and stemwood from three different air pollution zones showed serious deviations in comparison with a relatively healthy forest in an unpolluted area. The specimens from polluted trees, if compared to reference site, showed significantly smaller height growth, radial increment and width of annual rings of sapwood. In heartwood wider annual rings were found in polluted areas. In the period of heartwood formation the dust pollution level emitted from the plant was relatively modest and cement dust, which contains elements necessary for mineral nutrition of trees, may have acted as fertiliser. The moisture content in sapwood and heartwood, especially in the upper layers of stems, was lower in the polluted area than in reference site trees. Regression analysis revealed a strong dependence between latewood percentage and sapwood or heartwood in stems of Scots pine in all sample plots.  相似文献   

7.
This study was conducted in the urban environment of Varanasi, India, to evaluate the plant responses to urban air pollution. Twenty sites were selected in four different zones of the city. At each site, seven woody perennials of same age classes were selected. Out of the four zones (I, II, III and IV), zone IV was used as a reference (control) zone as it received the minimum pollution input. Plant species growing in polluted and control areas were compared with respect to foliar dust load, per cent leaf area injury, leaf area, specific leaf weight and chlorophyll, ascorbic acid, SO 4 2– S and total N concentration in the leaves. Results indicated that the air pollution level in Varanasi causes leaf damage, reduces leaf area, specific leaf weight and chlorophyll, ascorbic acid and total N concentrations in the leaves. Sulphur concentration in leaves increased with increasing level of SO2 in the ambient air. The magnitude of such changes was maximum at the zone receiving maximum pollution load. Carissa carandas was found to be the most sensitive species and Bougainvillea spectabilis, the least. The study shows that the urban air pollution level in Varanasi is detrimental for the growth of plants involved in this study.  相似文献   

8.
The Canadian Department of Fisheries and Oceans conducts annual bottom trawl surveys to monitor changes in the abundance of the major commercially important groundfish populations. Some of these surveys have been in operation for almost 20 yr. The estimates from these surveys often indicate rapid changes in abundance over time beyond that expected from the population dynamics of the fish. Much of this interannual change has been interpreted as variation, the magnitude of which has often made it difficult to measure anything but the most severe effects of fishing, pollution or any other intervention on the population. Recent studies have shown that some of this variation may be attributed to changes in catchability of fish due to the effects of environmental variables on fish distribution. Annual changes in abundance as estimated from such field surveys may be confounded by changes in catchability due to annual changes in environmental conditions. In this study, trawl catches of age 4 Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) from surveys conducted during March 1979–1988 were compared with concurrent measurements of bottom salinity, temperature and depth. Large catches of age 4 cod are more likely to occur in water characterized as the intermediate cold layer defined by salinities of 32–33.5 and temperatures<5°C. This relationship also appears to be modified by depth. We further show that internnual changes in the estimated abundance from the surveys were, in a number of cases, coincident with changes in the proportion of the bottom water composed of the intermediate cold water layer. The implications that these patterns may have on interpreting trends in the estimates of abundance from trawl surveys are discussed.  相似文献   

9.
The Estonian coastal waters serve as the south-eastern boundary of the regular distribution of the grey (Halichoerus grypus and ringed Phoca hispida) seal in the Baltic Sea. During the annual molt period in May–June (in the Estonian coastal waters), the stock size is estimated to be 1200–1500 grey seal individuals – that is, roughly 25% of the whole Baltic population. If we compare the chlororganic contents of seals in different areas the Baltic Sea, we can see that the northern part of the Gulf of Riga and Väinameri Sea is the reference area of the Baltic Sea.  相似文献   

10.
The purpose of this study was to design and test a monitoring protocol for marine waterfowl in the central Alaskan Beaufort Sea. The study provides an important case-study of how a long-term monitoring program may be affected by unanticipated human disturbances.Because of its overwhelming and widespread abundance, relatively sedentary behavior, ease in counting, and the extensive historical database, the long-tailed duck (Clangula hyemalis) was selected as the focal species. Two null hypotheses were formulated concerning potential changes in the numbers and distribution of long-tailed ducks in relation to disturbance in an industrial study area, compared to a reference study area located about 50 km to the east.A 9-year historical database (1977–1984, 1989) of long-tailed duck densities and other important data recorded during systematic aerial surveys was analyzed retrospectively using multiple regression techniques. The retrospective analyses determined which of several predictor variables recorded were significantly related to long-tailed duck density. Separate analyses were conducted for two periods: (1) the overall period when long-tailed ducks were present in the lagoon study areas, and (2) the shorter adult male molt period. The results of the two analyses indicated that 57% and 68%, respectively, of the total variation in long-tailed duck density during the two periods could be explained by variables recorded during the surveys. Predictor variables representing habitat, day of the year, time of day, amount of ice, and wave height recorded on-transect during surveys were most closely associated with long-tailed duck density. Measurement error during the surveys, and influences outside the study area such as nesting success in tundra habitats and mortality during migration and in over-wintering areas likely also had strong influences on the results, but these factors were not measurable in our study.Based on results of the retrospective analyses, a long-term monitoring protocol consisting of a program of systematic aerial surveys and an analyses of variance and covariance (ANOVA and ANCOVA) statistical procedure was designed and initially tested in 1990 and 1991. This 2-year testing phase resulted in several revisions to the monitoring protocol. Refinements were made to the original sampling procedures, to the survey schedule, and to the recommended statistical analysis procedures. Results of the ANOVA and ANCOVA indicated that there was no evidence of a change in long-tailed duck densities that could be attributable to disturbance (from any source) in the industrial study area relative to a reference area with no industrial development. Other analyses indicated that the sampling and analysis procedures would be adequate to detect long-term trends in long-tailed duck density and localized disturbance effects, but that the monitoring program should be continued well beyond two years to detect statistically significant changes. As a result, additional aerial surveys of both study areas were conducted again during 1999–2001.Results of the revised ANOVA and ANCOVA of the 1990–1991 and 1999–2001 survey data indicated that the density of long-tailed ducks had significantly declined in coastal lagoons along the central Alaskan Beaufort Sea coast during the study period. In addition, disturbances throughout the barrier island-lagoon systems used by these ducks, including both the industrial and the reference study areas, had significantly increased over the same period. However, because unanticipated disturbances from a variety of anthropogenic sources, and not just industry sources, increased in both study areas, the reference study area was not an effective statistical control. As a result, the decline in long-tailed duck density in both study areas was not attributable to industry-related activities. Although the monitoring protocol described here is an effective method to detect statistically significant changes in long-tailed duck distribution and abundance in the nearshore Alaskan Beaufort Sea, many more years of sampling would be necessary to attribute observed changes to industry-related disturbances.  相似文献   

11.
To study the impact of air pollution on the growth and elemental composition of conifers, 5 sample plots wereestablished at different distances and directions from theEstonian Power Plant (Northeast Estonia) in 1999–2000. Theselected stands were 75–80(85)-yr-old parts (0.05 ha) of(Oxalis)-Myrtillus site type forest of 0.7–0.8density. The soils of all sample plots were Gleyic Podzols(Lkg) on sands. The several times higher Ca concentration inthe humus horizon of the sample plot NE from the Estonian PPis caused by the prevailing westerly and southerly winds whichcarry more pollutants NE from the power plant than to SSW. Toascertain the effect of power plants on the growth of Scotspine (Pinus sylvestris L.), the length growth of theneedles and shoots formed in 1997–2000, dry weight of 100needles, and density of needles on the shoots were measured.As compared to the control, the strongest inhibition of growthwas revealed in the sample plots situated 22 km north-east and17 km south-west from the Estonian Power Plant. As compared tocontrol, the needles of trees growing on sample plots closerto the power plant showed higher contents of Ca, S and Zn. Thecontent of Mg in needles increased with distance from thepollution source. Current year needles had higher contents ofCu and Zn than older needles. Today the amounts of fly ashemitted from Narva power plants are fallen. Long-term fly ashemission has caused changes in the measurements ofmorphological parameters and chemical composition of needles.  相似文献   

12.
An investigation was conducted to study the baseline levels of Ba, Cd, Cu, Cr, Ni, Pb, Sr, V and Zn (aqua regia-extractable) based on 51 representative soils of the Torrelles and Sant Climent Municipal Districts (Catalonia, Spain). The baseline concentrations of those elements were (mg kg−1): Ba 73.9–617.9, Cr 9.2–120.2, Cu 4.0–111.6, Ni 6.1–118.6, Pb 5.6–217.5, Sr 19.6–128.8, V 12.1–101.2, and Zn 16.8–326.8, respectively.Forty-nine samples were reported as having less than the 0.67 mg kg−1 detection limit for cadmiun and were therefore not useful for baseline determination; however, these results suggest that the baseline average is probably below 0.67 mg kg−1.Upper baseline values for most of the elements corresponded with those reported in the literature, except for Pb and Zn, which were two to four times greater.Soil properties, including clay fraction, OC, CEC and pHw were related to metal concentration using correlation and factorial analysis. R-mode factor analysis separates the soil analysis data into three factors. These factors explain 67.3% of the total variance, suggesting that metal concentration was controlled by soil composition.  相似文献   

13.
Water quality variables – Turbidity, pH, Electrical Conductivity(EC), Chlorides and Total Hardness (TH) were monitored at adownstream location in the Tamiraparani River during 1978–1992. The observations were made at weekly intervals in a watertreatment and supply plant using standard methods. Graphical andstatistical analyses were used for data exploration, trenddetection and assessment. Box-Whisker plots of annual andseasonal changes in variables indicated apparent trends beingpresent in the data and their response to the seasonal influenceof the monsoon rainfall. Further, the examination of the medianvalues of the variables indicated that changes in the directionof trend occurred during 1985–1986, especially in pH, EC and TH. The statistical analyses were done using non-parametric methods,the ANCOVA on rank transformed data and the Seasonal Man-Kendalltest. The presence of monotonic trend in all the water qualityvariables was confirmed, however, with independent direction ofchange. The trend line was fitted by the method of leastsquares. The estimated values indicated significant increases inEC (28 S cm-1) while significant decreases were observed inturbidity (90 NTU), pH (0.78), and total hardness (23 ppm) in a span of 15 years. The changes induced in river flow by the addition of a stabilizing reservoir, the influence of seasonal and spatialpattern of monsoon rainfall across the river basin and the increased agriculture appear causative factors for the water quality trends seen in the Tamiraparani River system.  相似文献   

14.
The concentrations of cadmium, chromium, copper, iron, lead, manganese, nickel, and zinc in water and bed sediments of river Gomti have been studied in a fairly long stretch of 500 km from Neemsar to Jaunpur. Grab samples of water (October 2002–March 2003) and bed sediments (December 2002 and March 2003) were collected from 10 different locations following the standard methods. The river water and sediment samples were processed and analyzed for heavy metals viz., Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Pb, Mn, Ni, and Zn, and using ICP-AES. The heavy metals found in the river water were in the range: Cd (0.0001–0.0005 mg/L); Cr (0.0015–0.0688 mg/L); Cu (0.0013–0.0.0043 mg/L); Fe (0.0791–0.3190 mg/L); Mn (0.0038–0.0.0973 mg/L); Ni (0.0066–0.011 mg/L); Pb (0.0158–0.0276 mg/L); and Zn (0.0144–0.0298 mg/L) respectively. In the sediments the same were found in the range: Cd (0.70–7.90 g/g); Cr (6.105–20.595 g/g); Cu (3.735–35.68 g/g); Fe (5051.485–8291.485 g/g); Mn (134.915–320.45 g/g); Ni (13.905–37.370 g/g); Pb (21.25–92.15 g/g); and Zn (15.72–99.35 g/g) of dry weight respectively. Some physico-chemical parameters viz., pH, total solids, total dissolved solids, total suspended solids, dissolved oxygen, biological oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, hardness etc. were estimated as these have direct or indirect influence on the incidence, transport and speciation of the heavy metals. Based on the geoaccumulation indices, the Gomti river sediments from Neemsar to Jaunpur are considered to be unpolluted with respect to Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, and Zn. It is unpolluted to moderately polluted with Pb. In case of Cd it varies from moderately polluted to highly polluted. As far as Ni is concerned the sediment is very highly polluted at Barabanki and Jaunpur D/s. No correlation was found between enrichment factor and geoaccumulation index.  相似文献   

15.
Using non-parametric techniques, we studied water chemistry changes from 1983 to 1992 in 18 rivers located at the extreme northeastern portion of North America. This period was marked by a decrease in sulfate (SO 4 ) production in eastern Canada from 1982 to 1986, followed by a levelling off from 1986 to 1992. Nitrate (NO 3 ) production and deposition generally increased over this whole period. We used two time windows, 1983 to 1989 and 1983 to 1992, to determine if changes in river acidification variables occurred over the ten year period. We found significant trends of increasing pH and acid neutralization capacity (ANC) concentrations at eight sites using both time windows, while SO 4 –2 increased at five and seven sites during the same two time periods. Nitrate concentrations showed few consistent trends, while base cations showed increases in the earlier part of the data set and total organic carbon (TOC) showed long-term decreases. There were few significant trends in hydrogen (H+), and a slight decrease in SO 4 –2 exports as opposed to increased concentrations over the same period. We attribute the discrepancy between SO 4 –2 concentration and export trends to be due to evapotranspiration in the basins, causing a concentration of ions in water. Nitrate and calcium exports showed no trends, while TOC decreased at four or five sites, depending on the time window used. Longer data sets tended to produce more detectable trends. Overall, water chemistry in the region is showing the effects of reduced SO 4 loads and is not yet being affected by the increases in NO 3 deposition.  相似文献   

16.
Prediction of extreme ozone levels in Barcelona, Spain   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Barcelona is one of the most polluted cities in Western Europe, although our levels of air pollution are within the World Health Organisation air quality guidelines. However, high concentrations of air pollution have not been studied yet. Ground ozone levels is a topic of considerable environmental concern, since excessive level of ozone are taken as indicative of high pollution. In terms of the air quality guidelines ozone levels higher than 100 µg m–3 can start to be health-hazards for human health. Our objective is to report a detailed analysis of ozone data exceeding the thresholds established by the air quality guidelines. Data analysed were collected in two measurement stations in Barcelona, for the reference period 1991–1996. Applying statistical techniques commonly used in the analysis of extreme values, mainly the Peak Over Threshold method was used for in this study. The analysis reveal that the ozone threshold values for the protection of human health has exceeded many times in both stations. The estimated return values for 3, 10, and 40 yr exceed the threshold value for information to the public of almost once in both stations, also it seems to be unlikely that the threshold value for warning to the public will be exceeded in 40 yr.  相似文献   

17.
Data on individual tree mortality in relatively healthy (Berezinskiy biosphere reserve) and damaged (surroundings of the mineral fertilizer plant 'Achema') even-aged Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stands are presented. Tree size and competition intensity were found to be the most significant predictors of individual tree mortality in all age groups of the relatively healthy Scots pine stands, however, an essential reduction in the closeness of relations between the tree mortality rate and these variables was determined with the aging of stands. An exponential decrease in tree mortality probability with an increase of tree size is characteristic for trees suffering different competition intensity, however, this decrease becomes much more pronounced as the competition pressure increases. The relations of different tree and stand variables with tree mortality probability have been found to become much weaker in the polluted environment. An exponential increase in tree mortality probability with an increase of crown defoliation was characteristic of damaged Scots pine stands, however, the rate of the increase was different in different age and diameter classes. The impact of crown defoliation on tree mortality rate increased with the aging of stands. At the same defoliation level, individual tree mortality probability was much higher for smaller suppressed trees, however, a relative increase in tree mortality probability along with an increase of crown defoliation was more pronounced for dominant trees. Conclusion: a higher mortality of damaged (defoliated) trees should be considered while assessing losses in forest productivity in a polluted environment.  相似文献   

18.
Sulphur dioxide and PM10 levels are investigated in Erzurum during the periods of 1990–2000 heating season to assess air pollution level. For that reason, emissions of sulphur dioxide and particulate matter were calculated by using consumption of fuels and Turkish emission factors. These emission values were evaluated together with air pollution levels, which were measured at six stations in Erzurum atmosphere during 1990–2000 winter periods. Results reveal that in 1990–1994 heating period, there is an increasing trend in the emissions and air pollution levels over Erzurum, and the air quality limits were not met. The daily 24 h limit (short-term limit) was exceeded 127 days in 1992–1993 winter period. The reason for this increase was found to be the switching to use of low-quality fossil fuels instead of cleaner ones. Results also indicated that there was a considerable decrease in emissions of air pollutants and air pollution levels after 1995. This can be explained by the consumption of more high-quality fossil fuels. The correlation coefficient of SO2 with PM10 is obtained as r2 = 0.85, which is a high value supporting the idea that both pollutants are emitted from the same source.  相似文献   

19.
Field experiments were carried out during 1996–97at Gulawathi, Muthiani and Salarpur Villages, IARI Farm, NewDelhi and NCPP Campus, Dadri to evaluate changes in soilcharacteristics and growth of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.),mustard (Brassica juncea L.), lentil (Lence esculentaMoench.), rice (Oryza sativa L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) byvarying amounts of flyash addition (up to 50t ha-1) in soils atsowing/transplanting time of crops. Flyash addition in areasadjoining NCPP Thermal Power Plant, Dadri, Ghaziabad, U.P.ranged from 5–12 t ha-1 yr-1 in 1995–96. Shoot and root growthand yield of test crops at different locations after flyashincorporation resulted in beneficial effects of flyashaddition in most cases. The silt dominant texture of flyashimproved loamy sand to sandy loam textures of the surfacesoils at the farmers' fields. The increased growth in yield ofcrops with flyash incorporation was possibly due tomodifications in soil moisture retention and transmissioncharacteristics, bulk density, physico-chemical characterssuch as pH and EC and organic carbon content. The response offlyash addition in the soil on soil health and cropproductivity needs to be evaluated on long-term sustainableaspects.  相似文献   

20.
Present and future annual methane flux estimates out of landfills, rice paddies and natural wetlands, as well as the sorption capacity of aerobic soils for atmospheric methane, are assessed. The controlling factors and uncertainties with regard to soil methanogenesis and methanotrophy are also briefly discussed.The actual methane emission rate out of landfills is estimated at about 40 Tg yr–1. Changes in waste generation, waste disposal and landfill management could have important consequences on future methane emissions from waste dumps. If all mitigating options can be achieved towards the year 2015, the CH4 emission rate could be reduced to 13 Tg yr–1. Otherwise, the emission rate from landfills could increase to 63 Tg yr–1 by the year 2025. Methane emission from rice paddies is estimated at 60 Tg yr–1. The predicted increase of rice production between the years 1990 and 2025 could cause an increase of the CH4 emission rate to 78 Tg yr–1 by the year 2025. When mitigating options are taken, the emission rate could be limited to 56 Tg yr–1. The methane emission rate from natural wetlands is about 110 Tg yr–1. Because changes in the expanse of natural wetland area are difficult to assess, it is assumed that methane emission from natural wetlands would remain constant during the next 100 years. Because of uncertainties with regard to large potential soil sink areas (e.g. savanna, tundra and desert), the global sorption capacity of aerobic soils for atmospheric methane is not completely clear. The actual estimate is 30 Tg yr–1.In general, the net contribution of soils and landfills to atmospheric methane is estimated at 180 Tg yr–1 (210 Tg yr–1 emission, 30 Tg yr–1 sorption). This is 36% of the global annual methane flux (500 Tg yr–1).  相似文献   

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