The impact of NOx,CO and VOC emissions on the air quality of Zurich airport

To study the impact of emissions at an airport on local air quality, a measurement campaign at the Zurich airport was performed from 30 June 2004 to 15 July 2004. Measurements of NO, NO₂, CO and CO₂ were conducted with open path devices to determine real in-use emission indices of aircraft during idling. Additionally, air samples were taken to analyse the mixing ratios of volatile organic compounds (VOC). Temporal variations of VOC mixing ratios on the airport were investigated, while other air samples were taken in the plume of an aircraft during engine ignition. CO concentrations in the vicinity of the terminals were found to be highly dependent on aircraft movement, whereas NO concentrations were dominated by emissions from ground support vehicles. The measured emission indices for aircraft showed a strong dependence upon engine type. Our work also revealed differences from emission indices published in the emission data base of the International Civil Aviation Organisation. Among the VOC, reactive C₂–C₃ alkenes were found in significant amounts in the exhaust of an engine compared to ambient levels. Also, isoprene, a VOC commonly associated with biogenic emissions, was found in the exhaust, however it was not detected in refuelling emissions. The benzene to toluene ratio was used to discriminate exhaust from refuelling emission. In refuelling emissions, a ratio well below 1 was found, while for exhaust this ratio was usually about 1.7.     

WRF-Chem simulation of East Asian air quality: Sensitivity to temporal and vertical emissions distributions

This study develops fine temporal (seasonal, day-of-week, diurnal) and vertical allocations of anthropogenic emissions for the TRACE-P inventory and evaluates their impacts on the East Asian air quality prediction using WRF-Chem simulations in July 2001 at 30-km grid spacing against available surface measurements from EANET and NEMCC. For NO₂ and SO₂, the diurnal and vertical redistributions of emissions play essential roles, while the day-of-week variation is less important. When all incorporated, WRF-Chem best simulates observations of surface NO₂ and SO₂ concentrations, while using the default emissions produces the worst result. The sensitivity is especially large over major cities and industrial areas, where surface NO₂ and SO₂ concentrations are reduced by respectively 3–7 and 6–12 ppbv when using the scaled emissions. The incorporation of all the three redistributions of emissions simulates surface O₃ concentrations higher by 4–8 ppbv at night and 2–4 ppbv in daytime over broad areas of northern, eastern and central China. To this sensitivity, the diurnal redistribution contributes more than the other two.     

Comparisons of WRF/Chem simulated O3 concentrations in Mexico City with ground-based RAMA measurements during the MILAGRO period

This work compares the WRF/Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting – Chemistry) simulated O₃ concentrations in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) with measurements from the ground-based RAMA network during the MILAGRO (Megacity Initiative: Local and Global Research Observations) period. The model resolves the observations reasonably well in terms of diurnal cycle and mean magnitude as reflected by high correlation coefficients and low root-mean-square errors. Stations located in the center of the MCMA generally exhibit higher correlation coefficients and lower model biases than those stations located in the peripheral of the MCMA. Large temporal variations in the observed and simulated O₃ concentrations are noted from station to station during the MILAGRO period. Sensitivity analyses of O₃ concentrations to changes in NO_x and VOC emissions rates suggest that O₃ production in the MCMA is VOC-sensitive, and VOC-emissions reduction appears to be an effective strategy for reducing high surface O₃ concentrations in the MCMA.     

Sensitivity of ozone concentrations to diurnal variations of surface emissions in Mexico City: A WRF/Chem modeling study

Sensitivity of ozone (O₃) concentrations in the Mexico City area to diurnal variations of surface air pollutant emissions is investigated using the WRF/Chem model. Our analysis shows that diurnal variations of nitrogen oxides (NO_x = NO + NO₂) and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions play an important role in controlling the O₃ concentrations in the Mexico City area. The contributions of NO_x and VOC emissions to daytime O₃ concentrations are very sensitive to the morning emissions of NO_x and VOCs. Increase in morning NO_x emissions leads to decrease in daytime O₃ concentrations as well as the afternoon O₃ maximum, while increase in morning VOC emissions tends to increase in O₃ concentrations in late morning and early afternoon, indicating that O₃ production in Mexico City is under VOC-limited regime. It is also found that the nighttime O₃ is independent of VOCs, but is sensitive to NO_x. The emissions of VOCs during other periods (early morning, evening, and night) have only small impacts on O₃ concentrations, while the emissions of NO_x have important impacts on O₃ concentrations in the evening and the early morning.This study suggests that shifting emission pattern, while keeping the total emissions unchanged, has important impacts on air quality. For example, delaying the morning emission peak from 8 am to 10 am significantly reduced the morning peaks of NO_x and VOCs, as well as the afternoon O₃ maxima. It suggests that without reduction of total emission, the daytime O₃ concentrations can be significantly reduced by changing the diurnal variations of the emissions of O₃ precursors.     

Confronting environmental pressure,environmental quality and human health impact indicators of priority air emissions

This paper evaluates the ranking of 21 priority air pollutants with three indicator schemes: environmental pressure indicator (EPI), environmental quality indicator (EQI), and human health effect indicator (HEI). The EPI and EQI compare the emissions and concentrations with the target emissions and target concentrations, respectively. The HEI comprehends the steps from cause (i.e. national emissions) to effect (i.e. human health effects), and is the total human health burden, expressed in Disability Adjusted Life Years per year of exposure (DALYs year^?1). We estimated a health burden in the Netherlands of 41 × 10³ DALYs year^?1 caused by Dutch air emissions of PM10 and its precursors in the year 2003. The burden due to 17 carcinogenic substances emitted to air, was much lower (140 DALYs year^?1). In contrast, when the same substances were evaluated regarding environmental pressure and environmental quality, carbon tetrachloride (pressure) and benzo[a]pyrene (quality) were of highest importance, whereas the importance of PM10 was substantially lower. This result is remarkable, because for the majority of substances evaluated, the target concentrations and target emissions are based on preventing human health damage. The differences in relevance are explained by the different weighting of interests in the indicators. The HEI is based on concentration–response relations, whereas the EPI and EQI also depend on other, policy-based, principles and on technical feasibility. Therefore, to effectively prioritize emission reduction measures in policy-making, substances should not only be evaluated as to whether emission targets and environmental quality targets are reached, but they should be evaluated regarding their human health impact as well. In this context, the HEI is a suitable indicator to evaluate the human health impact.     

Particulate emissions from U.S. Department of Defense artillery backblast testing

There is a dearth of information on dust emissions from sources that are unique to the U.S. Department of Defense testing and training activities. However, accurate emissions factors are needed for these sources so that military installations can prepare accurate particulate matter (PM) emission inventories. One such source, coarse and fine PM (PM10 and PM2.5) emissions from artillery backblast testing on improved gun positions, was characterized at the Yuma Proving Ground near Yuma, AZ, in October 2005. Fugitive emissions are created by the shockwave from artillery pieces, which ejects dust from the surface on which the artillery is resting. Other contributions of PM can be attributed to the combustion of the propellants. For a 155-mm howitzer firing a range of propellant charges or zones, amounts of emitted PM10 ranged from -19 g of PM10 per firing event for a zone 1 charge to 92 g of PM10 per firing event for a zone 5. The corresponding rates for PM2.5 were approximately 9 g of PM2.5 and 49 g of PM2.5 per firing. The average measured emission rates for PM1o and PM2.5 appear to scale with the zone charge value. The measurements show that the estimated annual contributions of PM10 (52.2 t) and PM2.5 (28.5 t) from artillery backblast are insignificant in the context of the 2002 U.S. Environment Protection Agency (EPA) PM emission inventory. Using national-level activity data for artillery fire, the most conservative estimate is that backblast would contribute the equivalent of 5 x 10(-4) % and 1.6 x 10(-3)% of the annual total PM10 and PM2.5 fugitive dust contributions, respectively, based on 2002 EPA inventory data.     

Multimedia emissions inventory of polychlorinated biphenyls for the U.S. Great Lakes states

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were banned in the United States in 1979, and since then a significant decline in their release to the environment has been observed. This decline has now reached a plateau. Several new regulatory programs have been put in place to further reduce PCB emissions/releases. However, our ability to measure the effectiveness of these regulatory/voluntary programs and to support regional fate/transport and source/receptor modeling efforts depend on reliable emission information. In this study, we attempt to improve the emission inventory for PCBs by compiling and analyzing the multimedia total PCB emission/release data reported for the U.S Great Lakes states for each year from 1990 to 2000. Although Toxic Release Inventory (TRI), National Emissions Inventory (NEI), Great Lakes Regional Air Toxic Emissions Inventory (GLRATEI), and Integrated Atmospheric Deposition Network (IADN) data formed the basis of estimating air emissions, we used the TRI, National Response Center (NRC), and PCB transformer inventory data to estimate PCB releases to land. We used the Permit Compliance System and NRC data to obtain estimates of PCB discharges to water systems in the Great Lakes states. The Remedial Action Plans for each area of concern were the primary source for estimating PCB loads of dredged sediments. On the basis of the NEI, IADN, and GLRATEI data, the total air emissions within the decade were approximately 126 t. The regionwide discharges to water systems and releases to land in the form of landfills and accidental spills in 1990-2000 were estimated as approximately 170 and 3225 t, respectively. We estimated that approximately 1.3 million t of PCB-contaminated sediment were removed or targeted for removal in five lakes of the U.S. portion of the Great Lakes basin. We stress that these estimates were based on reported amounts and the unreported PCB releases/emissions could result in significantly higher estimates.     

Examination of the impact of photoexcited NO2 chemistry on regional air quality

Impact of the excited nitrogen dioxide (NO₂¹) chemistry on air quality in the U.S. is examined using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for a summer month. Model simulations were conducted with and without the NO₂¹ chemistry. The largest impact of the NO₂¹ chemistry in the eastern U.S. occurred in the northeast and in the western U.S. occurred in Los Angeles. While the single largest daily maximum 8-h ozone (O₃) increased by 9 ppbv in eastern U.S. and 6 ppbv in western U.S., increases on most days were much lower. No appreciable change in model performance statistics for surface-level O₃ predictions relative to measurements is noted between simulations with and without the NO₂¹ chemistry. Based on model calculations using current estimates of tropospheric emission burden, the NO₂¹ chemistry can increase the monthly mean daytime hydroxyl radicals (OH) and nitrous acid (HONO) by a maximum of 28% and 100 pptv, respectively.     

The sensitivity of the CHIMERE model to emissions reduction scenarios on air quality in Northern Italy

The sensitivity of the CHIMERE model to emission reduction scenarios on particulate matter PM2.5 and ozone (O₃) in Northern Italy is studied. The emissions of NO_x, PM2.5 SO₂, VOC or NH₃ were reduced by 50% for different source sectors for the Lombardy region, together with 5 additional scenarios to estimate the effect of local measures on improving the air quality for the Po valley area. Firstly, we evaluate the model performance by comparing calculated surface aerosol concentrations for the standard case (no emission reductions) with observations for January and June 2005. Calculated monthly mean PM10 concentrations are in general underestimated. For June, modelled PM10 concentrations slightly overestimate the measurements. Calculated monthly mean SO₄, NO₃^?, NH₄⁺ concentrations are in good agreement with the observations for January and June. Secondly, the model sensitivity of emission reduction scenarios on PM2.5 and O₃ calculated concentrations for the Po valley area is evaluated. The most effective scenarios to abate PM2.5 concentration are based on the SNAP2 (non-industrial combustion plants) and SNAP7 (road traffic) sectors, for which the NO_x and PM2.5 emissions are reduced by 50%. The number of days that the 2015 PM2.5 limit value of 25 μg m^?3 in Milan is exceeded by reducing primary PM2.5 and NO_x emissions for SNAP2 and 7 by 50%, does not change in January when compared to the standard case for the Milan area. It appears that 40% of the PM2.5 concentration in the greater Milan area is caused by the emissions surrounding the Lombardy region and from the model boundary conditions.This study also showed that a more effective pollutant reduction (emissions) per ton of pollutant reduced (concentrations) for the greater Milan area is obtained by reducing the primary PM2.5 emissions for SNAP7 by 50%. The most effective scenario on PM2.5 decrease for which precursor emissions are reduced is achieved by reducing SO₂ emissions by 50% for SNAP7.Our study showed that during summer time, the largest reductions in O₃ concentrations are achieved for SNAP7 emission reductions, when volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are reduced by 50%.     

Development and application of a regional-scale atmospheric mercury model based on WRF/Chem: a Mediterranean area investigation

The emission, transport, deposition and eventual fate of mercury (Hg) in the Mediterranean area has been studied using a modified version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF/Chem). This model version has been developed specifically with the aim to simulate the atmospheric processes determining atmospheric Hg emissions, concentrations and deposition online at high spatial resolution. For this purpose, the gas phase chemistry of Hg and a parametrised representation of atmospheric Hg aqueous chemistry have been added to the regional acid deposition model version 2 chemical mechanism in WRF/Chem. Anthropogenic mercury emissions from the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme included in the emissions preprocessor, mercury evasion from the sea surface and Hg released from biomass burning have also been included. Dry and wet deposition processes for Hg have been implemented. The model has been tested for the whole of 2009 using measurements of total gaseous mercury from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme monitoring network. Speciated measurement data of atmospheric elemental Hg, gaseous oxidised Hg and Hg associated with particulate matter, from a Mediterranean oceanographic campaign (June 2009), has permitted the model’s ability to simulate the atmospheric redox chemistry of Hg to be assessed. The model results highlight the importance of both the boundary conditions employed and the accuracy of the mercury speciation in the emission database. The model has permitted the reevaluation of the deposition to, and the emission from, the Mediterranean Sea. In light of the well-known high concentrations of methylmercury in a number of Mediterranean fish species, this information is important in establishing the mass balance of Hg for the Mediterranean Sea. The model results support the idea that the Mediterranean Sea is a net source of Hg to the atmosphere and suggest that the net flux is ≈30 Mg year^?1 of elemental Hg.     

Methods of characterizing the distribution of exhaust emissions from light-duty, gasoline-powered motor vehicles in the U.S. fleet

Mobile sources significantly contribute to ambient concentrations of airborne particulate matter (PM). Source apportionment studies for PM10 (PM < or = 10 microm in aerodynamic diameter) and PM2.5 (PM < or = 2.5 microm in aerodynamic diameter) indicate that mobile sources can be responsible for over half of the ambient PM measured in an urban area. Recent source apportionment studies attempted to differentiate between contributions from gasoline and diesel motor vehicle combustion. Several source apportionment studies conducted in the United States suggested that gasoline combustion from mobile sources contributed more to ambient PM than diesel combustion. However, existing emission inventories for the United States indicated that diesels contribute more than gasoline vehicles to ambient PM concentrations. A comprehensive testing program was initiated in the Kansas City metropolitan area to measure PM emissions in the light-duty, gasoline-powered, on-road mobile source fleet to provide data for PM inventory and emissions modeling. The vehicle recruitment design produced a sample that could represent the regional fleet, and by extension, the national fleet. All vehicles were recruited from a stratified sample on the basis of vehicle class (car, truck) and model-year group. The pool of available vehicles was drawn primarily from a sample of vehicle owners designed to represent the selected demographic and geographic characteristics of the Kansas City population. Emissions testing utilized a portable, light-duty chassis dynamometer with vehicles tested using the LA-92 driving cycle, on-board emissions measurement systems, and remote sensing devices. Particulate mass emissions were the focus of the study, with continuous and integrated samples collected. In addition, sample analyses included criteria gases (carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, nitric oxide/nitrogen dioxide, hydrocarbons), air toxics (speciated volatile organic compounds), and PM constituents (elemental/organic carbon, metals, semi-volatile organic compounds). Results indicated that PM emissions from the in-use fleet varied by up to 3 orders of magnitude, with emissions generally increasing for older model-year vehicles. The study also identified a strong influence of ambient temperature on vehicle PM mass emissions, with rates increasing with decreasing temperatures.     

Assessment of the emissions and air quality impacts of biomass and biogas use in California

It is estimated that there is sufficient in-state “technically” recoverable biomass to support nearly 4000 MW of bioelectricity generation capacity. This study assesses the emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants and resulting air quality impacts of new and existing bioenergy capacity throughout the state of California, focusing on feedstocks and advanced technologies utilizing biomass resources predominant in each region. The options for bioresources include the production of bioelectricity and renewable natural gas (NG). Emissions of criteria pollutants and greenhouse gases are quantified for a set of scenarios that span the emission factors for power generation and the use of renewable natural gas for vehicle fueling. Emissions are input to the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to predict regional and statewide temporal air quality impacts from the biopower scenarios. With current technology and at the emission levels of current installations, maximum bioelectricity production could increase nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions by 10% in 2020, which would cause increases in ozone and particulate matter concentrations in large areas of California. Technology upgrades would achieve the lowest criteria pollutant emissions. Conversion of biomass to compressed NG (CNG) for vehicles would achieve comparable emission reductions of criteria pollutants and minimize emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Air quality modeling of biomass scenarios suggest that applying technological changes and emission controls would minimize the air quality impacts of bioelectricity generation. And a shift from bioelectricity production to CNG production for vehicles would reduce air quality impacts further. From a co-benefits standpoint, CNG production for vehicles appears to provide the best benefits in terms of GHG emissions and air quality.

Implications:?This investigation provides a consistent analysis of air quality impacts and greenhouse gas emissions for scenarios examining increased biomass use. Further work involving economic assessment, seasonal or annual emissions and air quality modeling, and potential exposure analysis would help inform policy makers and industry with respect to further development and direction of biomass policy and bioenergy technology alternatives needed to meet energy and environmental goals in California.     

An assessment of the impact of California's Phase 2 Reformulated Gasoline on ozone air quality

California's Phase 2 Reformulated Gasoline (CaRFG), introduced early in 1996, represents an important step toward attainment of ozone standards. Studies of vehicle emissions and ambient air quality data have reported substantial reductions of ozone precursors due to CaRFG. This study uses daily measurements of regional ozone and meteorology to estimate the effect of CaRFG on ozone concentrations in three areas of California. In each area, a regression model was used to partially account for the daily effects of meteorology on area-wide ozone maxima for May-October. The statistical models are based on combinations of air temperature aloft (approximately 5000 ft), surface air temperatures, and surface wind speeds. Estimated ozone benefits were attributed to CaRFG after accounting for meteorology, which improved the precision of the estimates by approximately 37-57% based on a resampling analysis. The ozone benefits were calculated as the difference in ozone times the proportion of the reductions of hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides attributed to CaRFG by the best available emission inventories. Ozone benefits attributed to CaRFG (with approximately 90% confidence) are 8-13% in the Los Angeles area, -2-6% in the San Francisco Bay area overall with greater benefits in two major subregions, and 3-15% in the Sacramento area.     

An assessment of the impact of climate change on air quality at two UK sites

Possible effects of climate change on air quality are studied for two urban sites in the UK, London and Glasgow. Hourly meteorological data were obtained from climate simulations for two periods representing the current climate and a plausible late 21st century climate. Of the meteorological quantities relevant to air quality, significant changes were found in temperature, specific humidity, wind speed, wind direction, cloud cover, solar radiation, surface sensible heat flux and precipitation. Using these data, dispersion estimates were made for a variety of single sources and some significant changes in environmental impact were found in the future climate. In addition, estimates for future background concentrations of NO_x, NO₂, ozone and PM₁₀ upwind of London and Glasgow were made using the meteorological data in a statistical model. These showed falls in NO_x and increases in ozone for London, while a fall in NO₂ was the largest percentage change for Glasgow. Other changes were small. With these background estimates, annual-average concentrations of NO_x, NO₂, ozone and PM₁₀ were estimated within the two urban areas. For London, results averaged over a number of sites showed a fall in NO_x and a rise in ozone, but only small changes in NO₂ and PM₁₀. For Glasgow, the changes in all four chemical species were small. Large-scale background ozone values from a global chemical transport model are also presented. These show a decrease in background ozone due to climate change. To assess the net impact of both large scale and local processes will require models which treat all relevant scales.     

The impacts of reactive terpene emissions from plants on air quality in Las Vegas,Nevada

A three-part study was conducted to quantify the impact of landscaped vegetation on air quality in a rapidly expanding urban area in the arid southeastern United States. The study combines in situ, plant-level measurements, a spatial emissions inventory, and a photochemical box model. Maximum plant-level basal emission rates were moderate: 18.1 μgC gdw^?1 h^?1 (Washingtonia spp., palms) for isoprene and 9.56 μgC gdw^?1 h^?1 (Fraxinus velutina, Arizona ash) for monoterpenes. Sesquiterpene emission rates were low for plant species selected in this study, with no measurement exceeding 0.1 μgC gdw^?1 h^?1. The high ambient temperatures combined with moderate plant-level emission factors resulted in landscape emission factors that were low (250–640 μgC m^?2 h^?1) compared to more mesic environments (e.g., the southeastern United States). The Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism (RACM) was modified to include a new reaction pathway for ocimene. Using measured concentrations of anthropogenic hydrocarbons and other reactive air pollutants (NO_x, ozone), the box model employing the RACM mechanism revealed that these modest emissions could have a significant impact on air quality. For a suburban location that was downwind of the urban core (high NO_x; low anthropogenic hydrocarbons), biogenic terpenes increased time-dependent ozone production rates by a factor of 50. Our study demonstrates that low-biomass density landscapes emit sufficient biogenic terpenes to have a significant impact on regional air quality.     

Influence of air mass source region on nanoparticle events and hygroscopicity in central Virginia,U.S.

During autumn, 2006, variation in the frequency of aerosol nucleation events, as inferred from nanoparticle growth events, and associated hygroscopicity were investigated as a function of air mass transport history at a mixed deciduous forest in central Virginia, U.S. Above-canopy size distributions of aerosols between 0.012 and 0.700 μm diameter, size-resolved particle hygroscopicity at eight dry diameters between 0.012 and 0.400 μm, and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activity were characterized. Air mass back trajectories were clustered to identify source regions. Growth events were most frequent in fast-moving air masses (mean = 9 m s^?1) that originated over the north central U.S. Under these flow regimes, mean values for preexisting sub-μm aerosol number concentrations (4700 cm^?3), corresponding surface area (142 μm² cm^?3), air temperature (6.2 °C), and relative humidity (RH, 49.4%) were relatively low compared to other regimes. Under stagnant flow conditions (mean = 3 m s^?1), mean number concentrations were higher (>6000 cm^?3) and size fractions <0.1 μm diameter exhibited enhanced hygroscopicity compared to other source regions. These results indicate that precursors emitted into relatively clean, cold, and dry air transported over the southeastern U.S. reacted to form condensable intermediates that subsequently produced new aerosols via nucleation and growth. This pathway was an important source for CCN. During events in October, nanoparticles were produced in greater numbers and grew more rapidly compared to November and December.     

Biogenic volatile organic compound emissions (BVOCs). I. Identifications from three continental sites in the U.S

Vegetation composition and biomass were surveyed for three specific sites in Atlanta, GA; near Rhinelander, WI; and near Hayden, CO. At each research site emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) from the dominant vegetation species were sampled by enclosing branches in bag enclosure systems and sampling the equilibrium head space onto multi-stage solid adsorbent cartridges. Analysis was performed using a thermal desorption technique with gas chromatography (GC) separation and mass spectrometry (MS) detection. Identification of BVOCs covering the GC retention index range (stationary phase DB-1) from approximately 400 to 1400 was achieved (volatilities C4-C14).     

Assessment of emissions data for the Toronto region using aircraft-based measurements and an air quality model

An aircraft-based measurement campaign was conducted during the summer of 1996 in the vicinity of Toronto, Canada. The objective of the campaign was to assess the errors in a particular emission inventory used by three-dimensional air quality models. Measurements of NO₂ and hydrocarbons were made both upwind and downwind of Toronto, on days with strong synoptic-scale flow from a west to northerly direction. The chemical composition of the background airmass on these days was typical of unpolluted continental air. Measurements have been compared with the output from an on-line air quality model (MC2-AQ) run at 5 km resolution and suggest that emissions of NO_x from Toronto are well described in the emission database, though evidence that NO_x emissions are underestimated for suburban regions surrounding Toronto was found. In general, no significant underestimation of hydrocarbon emissions was found, though emissions of the model propane species, which includes acetylene and benzene, was underestimated by at least a factor of two.     

Future land use and land cover influences on regional biogenic emissions and air quality in the United States

A regional modeling system was applied with inputs from global climate and chemistry models to quantify the effects of global change on future biogenic emissions and their impacts on ozone and biogenic secondary organic aerosols (BSOA) in the US. Biogenic emissions in the future are influenced by projected changes in global and regional climates and by variations in future land use and land cover (LULC). The modeling system was applied for five summer months for the present-day case (1990–1999, Case 1) and three future cases covering 2045–2054. Individual future cases were: present-day LULC (Case 2); projected-future LULC (Case 3); and future LULC with designated regions of tree planting for carbon sequestration (Case 4). Results showed changing future meteorology with present-day LULC (Case 2) increased average isoprene and monoterpene emission rates by 26% and 20% due to higher temperature and solar insolation. However when LULC was changed together with climate (Case 3), predicted isoprene and monoterpene emissions decreased by 52% and 31%, respectively, due primarily to projected cropland expansion. The reduction was less, at 31% and 14% respectively, when future LULC changes were accompanied by regions of tree planting (Case 4). Despite the large decrease in biogenic emission, future average daily maximum 8-h (DM8H) ozone was found to increase between +8 ppbv and +10 ppbv due to high future anthropogenic emissions and global chemistry conditions. Among the future cases, changing LULC resulted in spatially varying future ozone differences of ?5 ppbv to +5 ppbv when compared with present-day case. Future BSOA changed directly with the estimated monoterpene emissions. BSOA increased by 8% with current LULC (Case 2) but decreased by 45%–28% due to future LULC changes. Overall, the results demonstrated that on a regional basis, changes in LULC can offset temperature driven increases in biogenic emissions, and, thus, LULC projection is an important factor to consider in the study of future regional air quality.     

Infant mortality and air pollution: a comprehensive analysis of U.S. data for 1990

This paper uses U.S. linked birth and death records to explore associations between infant mortality and environmental factors, based on spatial relationships. The analysis considers a range of infant mortality end points, regression models, and environmental and socioeconomic variables. The basic analysis involves logistic regression modeling of individuals; the cohort comprises all infants born in the United States in 1990 for whom the required data are available from the matched birth and death records. These individual data include sex, race, month of birth, and birth weight of the infant, and personal data on the mother, including age, adequacy of prenatal care, and smoking and education in most instances. Ecological variables from Census and other sources are matched on the county of usual residence and include ambient air quality, elevation above sea level, climate, number of physicians per capita, median income, racial and ethnic distribution, unemployment, and population density. The air quality variables considered were 1990 annual averages of PM10, CO, SO2, SO4(2-), and "non-sulfate PM10" (NSPM10--obtained by subtracting the estimated SO4(2-) mass from PM10). Because all variables were not available for all counties (especially maternal smoking), it was necessary to consider various subsets of the total cohort. We examined all infant deaths and deaths by age (neonatal and postneonatal), by birth weight (normal and low [< 2500 g]), and by specific causes within these categories. Special attention was given to sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS). For comparable modeling assumptions, the results for PM10 agreed with previously published estimates; however, the associations with PM10 were not specific to probable exposures or causes of death and were not robust to changes in the model and/or the locations considered. Significant negative mortality associations were found for SO4(2-). There was no indication of a role for outdoor PM2.5, but possible contributions from indoor air pollution sources cannot be ruled out, given higher SIDS rates in winter, in the north and west, and outside of large cities.