Weekday vs. Weekend Ambient Ozone Concentrations: Discussion and Hypotheses with Focus on Northern California

Abstract

Since the early 1970s, researchers and data analysts have reported differences between weekday and weekend ozone concentrations, with higher ozone concentrations occurring on Sundays in some locations. At that time, the phenomenon was referred to as the “Sunday effect.” In the late 1980s, additional papers focused on weekday/weekend differences in air quality in the South Coast (Los Angeles) Air Basin.

Analyses of ozone concentrations measured at a number of locations in northern California reveal that average ozone concentrations are frequently higher on weekends than on weekdays. Violations of the California 0.09 ppm 1-hour air quality standard for ozone also occur in disproportionately greater frequency on weekends. We hypothesize that this phenomenon is based largely on the differences between weekday and weekend emission patterns. We believe that the observed differences may provide information regarding which pollutant reduction strategy, NO_x or ROG control, may be more effective in reducing ambient ozone concentrations. For the northern California region, the presence of higher weekend ozone concentrations suggests the need for ROG control is greater than for NO_x control. If both NO_x and ROG are to be controlled, it is important to understand the interdependence of the two pollutants in forming ozone. With the current uncertainty and debate regarding official vehicular emission inventories, this phenomenon emphasizes the importance of using observation-based data to examine ambient pollution and emission relationships. This natural experiment of varying emissions provides an interesting test case for sophisticated air pollution model performance and evaluation.

Using a Bay Area emission inventory and an estimate of its change from weekday to weekend, combined with a generic Empirical Kinetic Modeling Approach (EKMA) diagram, we demonstrate the weekend effect. In addition, changes in the Bay Area emission inventory from 1980 to 1990, when combined with the EKMA diagram, also show why the weekend effect is more evident in the 1990s.

It is our hypothesis that the presence of the weekend effect, positive or negative, combined with changes in emission changes, provides a simple clue to whether an area is NO_xor ROG limited with respect to ozone formation.     

Uncertainty Analysis of Ozone Formation and Response to Emission Controls Using Higher-Order Sensitivities

Abstract

Understanding ozone response to its precursor emissions is crucial for effective air quality management practices. This nonlinear response is usually simulated using chemical transport models, and the modeling results are affected by uncertainties in emissions inputs. In this study, a high ozone episode in the southeastern United States is simulated using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Uncertainties in ozone formation and response to emissions controls due to uncertainties in emission rates are quantified using the Monte Carlo method. Instead of propagating emissions uncertainties through the original CMAQ, a reduced form of CMAQ is formulated using directly calculated first- and second-order sensitivities that capture the nonlinear ozone concentration-emission responses. This modification greatly reduces the associated computational cost. Quantified uncertainties in modeled ozone concentrations and responses to various emissions controls are much less than the uncertainties in emissions inputs. Average uncertainties in modeled ozone concentrations for the Atlanta area are less than 10% (as measured by the inferred coefficient of variance [ICOV]) even when emissions uncertainties are assumed to vary between a factor of 1.5 and 2. Uncertainties in the ozone responses generally decrease with increased emission controls. Average uncertainties (ICOV) in emission-normalized ozone responses range from 4 to 22%, with the smaller being associated with controlling of the relatively certain point nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions and the larger resulting from controlling of the less certain mobile NO_x emissions. These small uncertainties provide confidence in the model applications, such as in performance evaluation, attainment demonstration, and control strategy development.     

Weekday/Weekend Ozone Differences: What Can We Learn from Them?

Abstract

A national analysis of weekday/weekend ozone (O₃) differences demonstrates significant variation across the country. Weekend 1-hr or 8-hr maximum O₃ varies from 15% lower than weekday levels to 30% higher. The weekend O₃ increases are primarily found in and around large coastal cities in California and large cities in the Midwest and Northeast Corridor. Both the average and the 95th percentile of the daily 1-hr and 8-hr maxima exhibit the same general pattern. Many sites that have elevated O₃ also have higher O₃ on weekends even though traffic and O₃ precursor levels are substantially reduced on weekends. Detailed studies of this phenomenon indicate that the primary cause of the higher O₃ on weekends is the reduction in oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) emissions on weekends in a volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited chemical regime. In contrast, the lower O₃ on weekends in other locations is probably a result of NO_x reductions in a NO_x-limited regime. The NO_x reduction explanation is supported by a wide range of ambient analyses and several photochemical modeling studies. Changes in the timing and location of emissions and meteorological factors play smaller roles in weekend O₃ behavior. Weekday/weekend temperature differences do not explain the weekend effect but may modify it.     

Spatial mapping of VOC and NOx-limitation of ozone formation in central California

Ambient aerometric data were used to predict whether ozone formation at specific times and locations in central California was limited by the availability of volatile organic compounds (VOC) or oxides of nitrogen (NO_x). The predictions were compared with differences between mean weekday and weekend peak ozone values. The comparison with weekend and weekday ozone levels provided a means for empirically investigating the effects of VOC and NO_x reductions on ozone formation, because the relative proportions and levels of ozone precursor species were significantly different on weekends than on weekdays. Weekend NO_x levels averaged 27 percent lower than weekday levels at the time of the peak ozone hour. Daytime weekend levels of VOC species were also consistently lower than weekday values throughout the region, though the differences between weekends and weekdays were not always statistically significant (p<0.05). Site-to-site differences between weekend and weekday mean peak hourly ozone were related to whether ozone formation was VOC- or NO_x-limited.     

Modeling Analyses of the Effects of Changes in Nitrogen Oxides Emissions from the Electric Power Sector on Ozone Levels in the Eastern United States

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the changes in ambient ozone concentrations simulated by the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for summer 2002 under three different nitrogen oxides (NO_x) emission scenarios. Two emission scenarios represent best estimates of 2002 and 2004 emissions; they allow assessment of the impact of the NO_x emissions reductions imposed on the utility sector by the NO_x State Implementation Plan (SIP) Call. The third scenario represents a hypothetical rendering of what NO_x emissions would have been in 2002 if no emission controls had been imposed on the utility sector. Examination of the modeled median and 95th percentile daily maximum 8-hr average ozone concentrations reveals that median ozone levels estimated for the 2004 emission scenario were less than those modeled for 2002 in the region most affected by the NO_x SIP Call. Comparison of the “no-control” with the “2002” scenario revealed that ozone concentrations would have been much higher in much of the eastern United States if the utility sector had not implemented NO_x emission controls; exceptions occurred in the immediate vicinity of major point sources where increased NO titration tends to lower ozone levels.     

Differences between Weekday and Weekend Air Pollutant Levels in Atlanta; Baltimore; Chicago; Dallas–Fort Worth; Denver; Houston; New York; Phoenix; Washington,DC; and Surrounding Areas

Abstract

We evaluated day-of-week differences in mean concentrations of ozone (O₃) precursors (nitric oxide [NO], nitrogen oxides [NO_x], carbon moNO_xide [CO], and volatile organic compounds [VOCs]) at monitoring sites in 23 states comprising seven geographic focus areas over the period 1998– 2003. Data for VOC measurements were available for six metropolitan areas in five regions. We used Wednesdays to represent weekdays and Sundays to represent weekends; we also analyzed Saturdays. At many sites, NO, NO_x, and CO mean concentrations decreased at all individual hours from 6:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m. on Sundays compared with corresponding Wednesday means. Statistically significant (p < 0.01) weekend decreases in ambient concentrations were observed for 92% of NO_x sites, 89% of CO sites, and 23% of VOC sites. Nine-hour (6:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m.) mean concentrations of NO, NO_x, CO, and VOCs declined by 65, 49, 28, and 19%, respectively, from Wednesdays to Sundays (median site responses). Despite the large reductions in ambient NO_x and moderate reductions in ambient CO and VOC concentrations on weekends, ozone and particulate matter (PM) nitrate did not exhibit large changes from week-days to weekends. The median differences between Wednesday and Sunday mean ozone concentrations at all monitoring sites ranged from 3% higher on Sundays for peak 8-hr concentrations determined from all monitoring days to 3.8% lower on Sundays for peak 1-hr concentrations on extreme-ozone days. Eighty-three percent of the sites did not show statistically significant differences between Wednesday and weekend mean concentrations of peak ozone. Statistically significant weekend ozone decreases occurred at 6% of the sites and significant increases occurred at 11% of the sites. Average PM nitrate concentrations were 2.6% lower on Sundays than on Wednesdays. Statistically significant Sunday PM nitrate decreases occurred at one site and significant increases occurred at seven sites.     

Evaluation of air quality models for the simulation of a high ozone episode in the Houston metropolitan area

A high ozone event in the Houston–Galveston–Brazoria area was utilized to study the shortcomings of the current air quality models. To improve the baseline simulations with the Comprehensive Air quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) for developing the state implementation plan, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) imputed emissions of highly reactive volatile organic compounds (HRVOCs) by scaling the amount of fugitive emissions of olefins to co-emitted NO_x from selected point sources, effectively multiplying by 3–12 times over the regular inventory values. In this paper, CAMx and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model were used to determine if the imputed HRVOC emissions were consistent with the observed atmospheric conditions. With the base emissions, CMAQ and CAMx both with the Carbon-Bond 4 (CB-4) mechanism simulated similar ozone concentrations. But with the imputed HRVOC emissions, CMAQ predicted lower ozone peaks than CAMx in the vicinity and downwind of the Ship Channel and other highly HRVOC-rich areas. Based on analyses of sensitivity simulations of CMAQ with different emission inputs and vertical diffusion algorithms in the model, we found that the modeled atmosphere lacked reactivity to produce the observed high ozone event. Although the imputed HRVOC emissions improved ozone prediction at the surface sites, but the ethylene concentrations were not consistent with the measurements at the super sites (La Porte and Clinton) and by NOAA aircraft. Several sensitivity tests designed to provide additional radicals into the system and other research results suggested that the lack of reactivity may need to be corrected by targeted, and probably of episodic, increase of HRVOC emissions, from the sources in the Houston Ship Channel. Additional investigation of the ozone production efficiency for different chemical mechanisms is necessary to pinpoint the emissions uncertainty issues.     

Evolution of the Magnitude and Spatial Extent of the Weekend Ozone Effect in California’s South Coast Air Basin, 1981–2000

Abstract

Since the mid-1970s, ozone (O₃) levels in portions of California’s South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) on weekends have been as high as or higher than levels on weekdays, even though emissions of O₃ precursors are lower on weekends. Analysis of the ambient data indicates that the intensity and spatial extent of the weekend O₃ effect are correlated with day-of-week variations in the extent of O₃ inhibition caused by titration with nitric oxide (NO), reaction of hydroxyl radical (OH) with nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and rates of O₃ accumulation. Lower NO mixing ratios and higher NO₂/oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) ratios on weekend mornings allow O₃ to begin accumulating approximately an hour earlier on weekends. The weekday/weekend differences in the duration of O₃ accumulation remained relatively constant from 1981 to 2000. In contrast, the rate of O₃ accumulation decreased by one-third to one-half over the same period; the largest reductions occurred in the central basin on weekdays. Trends in mixing ratios of O₃ precursors show a transition to lower volatile organic compound (VOC)/NO_x ratios caused by greater reductions in VOC emissions. Reductions in VOC/NO_x ratios were greater on weekdays, resulting in higher VOC/NO_x ratios on weekends relative to weekdays. Trends in VOC/NO_x ratios parallel the downward trend in peak O₃ levels, a shift in the location of peak O₃ from the central to the eastern portion of the basin, and an increase in the magnitude and spatial extent of the weekend O₃ effect.     

Diurnal and Weekday Variations in the Source Contributions of Ozone Precursors in California’s South Coast Air Basin

Abstract

For at least 30 years, ozone (O₃) levels on weekends in parts of California’s South Coast (Los Angeles) Air Basin (SoCAB) have been as high as or higher than on weekdays, even though ambient levels of O₃ precursors are lower on weekends than on weekdays. A field study was conducted in the Los Angeles area during fall 2000 to test whether proposed relationships between emission sources and ambient nonmethane hydrocarbon (NMHC) and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) levels can account for observed diurnal and day-of-week variations in the concentration and proportions of precursor pollutants that may affect the efficiency and rate of O₃ formation. The contributions to ambient NMHC by motor vehicle exhaust and evaporative emissions, estimated using chemical mass balance (CMB) receptor modeling, ranged from 65 to 85% with minimal day-of-week variation. Ratios of ambient NO_x associated with black carbon (BC) to NO_x associated with carbon monoxide (CO) were approximately 1.25 ± 0.22 during weekdays and 0.76 ± 0.07 and 0.52 ± 0.07 on Saturday and Sunday, respectively. These results demonstrate that lower NO_x emissions from diesel exhaust can be a major factor causing lower NO_x mixing ratios and higher NMHC/NO_x ratios on weekends. Nonmobile sources showed no significant day-of-week variations in their contributions to NMHC. Greater amounts of gasoline emissions are carried over on Friday and Saturday evenings but are, at most, a minor factor contributing to higher NMHC/NO_x ratios on weekend mornings.     

Nonparametric factorial analysis of daily weigh-in-motion traffic: implications for the ozone “weekend effect” in Southern California

The Ozone Weekend Effect (OWE) has become increasingly more frequent and widespread in southern California since the mid-1970s. Although a number of hypotheses have been suggested to explain the effect, there remains uncertainty associated with the root factors contributing to elevated weekend ozone concentrations. Targeting the time window of the 1997 Southern California Ozone Study (SCOS97), this paper examines traffic activity data for 14 vehicle classes at 27 weigh-in-motion (WIM) stations in southern California. Nonparametric factorial analyses of light-duty vehicle (LDV) and heavy-duty truck (HDT) traffic volumes indicate significant differences in daily volumes by day of week and between the weekly patterns of daily LDV and HDT volumes. Across WIM stations, the daily LDV volume was highest on Friday and decreased by 10% on weekends compared to that on midweek days. In contrast, daily HDT volumes showed dramatic weekend drops of 53% on Saturday and 64% on Sunday. As a result, LDV to HDT ratios increased by 145% on weekends. Nonparametric tests also suggest that weekly traffic patterns varied significantly between WIM stations located close to (central) and far from (peripheral) the Los Angeles Metro area. Weekend increases in LDV/HDT ratios were more pronounced at central WIM sites due to greater weekend declines of HDT relative to LDV traffic. The implications of these weekly traffic patterns for the OWE in southern California were investigated by estimating daily WIM traffic on-road running exhaust emissions of total organic gas (TOG) and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) using EMFAC2002 emission factors. The results support the California Air Resource Board's (CARB's) NO_x reduction hypothesis that greater weekend NO_x reductions relative to volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions, in combinations with the VOC-limited ozone system, contribute to the OWE observed in the region. The results from this study can be used to develop weekend on-road mobile emission inventories for the purpose of air quality modeling.     

Projected changes in particulate matter concentrations in the South Coast Air Basin due to basin-wide reductions in nitrogen oxides,volatile organic compounds,and ammonia emissions

An ozone abatement strategy for the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) has been proposed by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD) and the California Air Resources Board (ARB). The proposed emissions reduction strategy is focused on the reduction of nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions by the year 2030. Two high PM_2.5 concentration episodes with high ammonium nitrate compositions occurring during September and November 2008 were simulated with the Community Multi-scale Air Quality model (CMAQ). All simulations were made with same meteorological files provided by the SCAQMD to allow them to be more directly compared with their previous modeling studies. Although there was an overall under-prediction bias, the CMAQ simulations were within an overall normalized mean error of 50%; a range that is considered acceptable performance for PM modeling. A range of simulations of these episodes were made to evaluate sensitivity to NO_x and ammonia emissions inputs for the future year 2030. It was found that the current ozone control strategy will reduce daily average PM_2.5 concentrations. However, the targeted NO_x reductions for ozone were not found to be optimal for reducing PM_2.5 concentrations. Ammonia emission reductions reduced PM_2.5 and this might be considered as part of a PM_2.5 control strategy.

Implications: The SCAQMD and the ARB have proposed an ozone abatement strategy for the SoCAB that focuses on NO_x emission reductions. Their strategy will affect both ozone and PM_2.5. Two episodes that occurred during September and November 2008 with high PM_2.5 concentrations and high ammonium nitrate composition were selected for simulation with different levels of nitrogen oxide and ammonia emissions for the future year 2030. It was found that the ozone control strategy will reduce maximum daily average PM_2.5 concentrations but its effect on PM_2.5 concentrations is not optimal.     

Modeling an air pollution episode in northwestern United States: Identifying the effect of nitrogen oxide and volatile organic compound emission changes on air pollutants formation using direct sensitivity analysis

Air quality impacts of volatile organic compound (VOC) and nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions from major sources over the northwestern United States are simulated. The comprehensive nested modeling system comprises three models: Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ), Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), and Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE). In addition, the decoupled direct method in three dimensions (DDM-3D) is used to determine the sensitivities of pollutant concentrations to changes in precursor emissions during a severe smog episode in July of 2006. The average simulated 8-hr daily maximum O₃ concentration is 48.9 ppb, with 1-hr O₃ maxima up to 106 ppb (40 km southeast of Seattle). The average simulated PM_2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm) concentration at the measurement sites is 9.06 μg m^?3, which is in good agreement with the observed concentration (8.06 μg m^?3). In urban areas (i.e., Seattle, Vancouver, etc.), the model predicts that, on average, a reduction of NO_x emissions is simulated to lead to an increase in average 8-hr daily maximum O₃ concentrations, and will be most prominent in Seattle (where the greatest sensitivity is??0.2 ppb per % change of mobile sources). On the other hand, decreasing NO_x emissions is simulated to decrease the 8-hr maximum O₃ concentrations in remote and forested areas. Decreased NO_x emissions are simulated to slightly increase PM_2.5 in major urban areas. In urban areas, a decrease in VOC emissions will result in a decrease of 8-hr maximum O₃ concentrations. The impact of decreased VOC emissions from biogenic, mobile, nonroad, and area sources on average 8-hr daily maximum O₃ concentrations is up to 0.05 ppb decrease per % of emission change, each. Decreased emissions of VOCs decrease average PM_2.5 concentrations in the entire modeling domain. In major cities, PM_2.5 concentrations are more sensitive to emissions of VOCs from biogenic sources than other sources of VOCs. These results can be used to interpret the effectiveness of VOC or NO_x controls over pollutant concentrations, especially for localities that may exceed National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS).

Implications: The effect of NO_x and VOC controls on ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations in the northwestern United States is examined using the decoupled direct method in three dimensions (DDM-3D) in a state-of-the-art three-dimensional chemical transport model (CMAQ). NO_x controls are predicted to increase PM_2.5 and ozone in major urban areas and decrease ozone in more remote and forested areas. VOC reductions are helpful in reducing ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations in urban areas. Biogenic VOC sources have the largest impact on O₃ and PM_2.5 concentrations.     

Differences between Weekday and Weekend Air Pollutant Levels in Southern California

Abstract

Ambient air quality data were analyzed to empirically evaluate the effects of reductions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) emissions on weekday and weekend levels of ozone (O₃; 1991–1998) and particulate NO₃ ^- (1980–1999) in southern California. Despite significantly lower O₃ precursor levels on weekends, 20 of 28 South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) sites (28 of all 78 southern California sites) showed statistically significant higher mean O₃ levels on Sundays than on weekdays (p < 0.01); 49 of the remaining 50 sites showed no significant differences between mean weekday and Sunday peak O₃ levels. We also observed no statistically significant differences between mean weekday and weekend concentrations of particulate NO₃ ^- or nitric acid (HNO₃, the precursor of particulate NO₃ ^-). Averaged over sites, the mean Sunday NO_x and nonmethane hydrocarbon concentrations were 25–41% and 16–30% lower, respectively, than on weekdays. Site-to-site differences between weekend and weekday mean peak hourly O₃ levels were related to whether O₃ formation was limited by the availability of NO_x. A thermodynamic equilibrium model predicts that particulate NO₃ ^- levels would decrease in response to a reduction of HNO₃, and that particulate ammonium NO₃ ^- formation was not limited by the availability of ammonia. The similarity of mean weekday and weekend levels of NO₃ ^- therefore did not result from limitations on the formation of particulate NO₃ ^- from its precursor, HNO₃.     

Annual and weekly patterns of ozone and particulate matter in Jeddah,Saudi Arabia

Air pollution has been an increasing concern within the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries. In this work the authors present an analysis of daily ozone (O₃), nitrogen oxide (NO_x), and particulate matter (<10 μm aerodynamic diameter; PM₁₀) concentrations for two years (2010 and 2011) at sites in and around the coastal city of Jeddah, as well as a remote background site for comparison. Monthly and weekly variations, along with their implications and consequences, were also examined. O₃ within Jeddah was remarkably low, and exhibited the so-called weekend effect—elevated O₃ levels on the weekends, despite reduced emissions of O₃ precursors on those days. Weekend O₃ increases averaged between 12% and 14% in the city, suggesting that NO_x/volatile organic compound (VOC) ratios within cities such as Jeddah may be exceptionally high. Sites upwind or far removed from Jeddah did not display this weekend effect. Based on these results, emission control strategies in and around Jeddah must carefully address NO_x/VOC ratios so as to reduce O₃ at downwind locations without increasing it within urban locations themselves. PM₁₀ concentrations within Jeddah were elevated compared with North American cites of similar climatology, though comparable to other large cities within the Middle East.

Implications:Daily concentrations of O₃, PM₁₀, and NO_x in and around the city of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, are analyzed and compared with those of other reference cities. Extremely low O₃ levels, along with a significant urban weekend effect (higher weekend O₃, despite reduced NO_x concentrations), is apparent, along with high levels of PM₁₀ within the city. Urban O₃ in Jeddah was found to be lower than that of other comparable cities, but the strong weekend effect suggests that care must be taken to reduce downwind O₃ levels without increasing them within the city itself. Further research into the emissions and chemistry contributing to the reduced O₃ levels within the city is warranted.     

Day-of-Week Patterns of Particulate Matter and Its Chemical Components at Selected Sites in California

Abstract

This paper analyzes day-of-week variations in concentrations of particulate matter (PM) in California. Because volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) are not only precursors of ozone (O₃) but also of secondary PM, it is useful to know whether the variations by day of week in these precursors are also evident in PM data. Concentrations of PM ≤10 μm (PM₁₀) and ≤2.5[H9262]m in aerodynamic diameter (PM_2.5) were analyzed. PM concentrations exhibit a general weekly pattern, with the maximum occurring late in the workweek and the minimum occurring on weekends (especially Sunday); however, this pattern does not prevail at all sites and areas. PM nitrate (NO₃ ^-) data from Size Selective Inlet (SSI) samplers in the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) tend to be somewhat lower on weekends compared with weekdays. During 1988–1991, the weekend average was lower than the weekday average at 8 of 13 locations, with an average decrease of 1%. During 1997–2000, the weekend average was lower than the weekday average at 10 of 13 locations, with an average decrease of 6%. The weekend averages are generally lower than weekday averages for sulfates, organic carbon, and elemental carbon. Because heavy-duty trucks typically represent a major source of elemental carbon, the weekend decrease in heavy-duty truck traffic may also result in a decrease in ambient elemental carbon concentrations.     

Expected ozone benefits of reducing nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from coal-fired electricity generating units in the eastern United States

On hot summer days in the eastern United States, electricity demand rises, mainly because of increased use of air conditioning. Power plants must provide this additional energy, emitting additional pollutants when meteorological conditions are primed for poor air quality. To evaluate the impact of summertime NO_x emissions from coal-fired electricity generating units (EGUs) on surface ozone formation, we performed a series of sensitivity modeling forecast scenarios utilizing EPA 2018 version 6.0 emissions (2011 base year) and CMAQ v5.0.2. Coal-fired EGU NO_x emissions were adjusted to match the lowest NO_x rates observed during the ozone seasons (April 1–October 31) of 2005–2012 (Scenario A), where ozone decreased by 3–4 ppb in affected areas. When compared to the highest emissions rates during the same time period (Scenario B), ozone increased ～4–7 ppb. NO_x emission rates adjusted to match the observed rates from 2011 (Scenario C) increased ozone by ～4–5 ppb. Finally in Scenario D, the impact of additional NO_x reductions was determined by assuming installation of selective catalytic reduction (SCR) controls on all units lacking postcombustion controls; this decreased ozone by an additional 2–4 ppb relative to Scenario A. Following the announcement of a stricter 8-hour ozone standard, this analysis outlines a strategy that would help bring coastal areas in the mid-Atlantic region closer to attainment, and would also provide profound benefits for upwind states where most of the regional EGU NO_x originates, even if additional capital investments are not made (Scenario A).

Implications: With the 8-hr maximum ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) decreasing from 75 to 70 ppb, modeling results indicate that use of postcombustion controls on coal-fired power plants in 2018 could help keep regions in attainment. By operating already existing nitrogen oxide (NO_x) removal devices to their full potential, ozone could be significantly curtailed, achieving ozone reductions by up to 5 ppb in areas around the source of emission and immediately downwind. Ozone improvements are also significant (1–2 ppb) for areas affected by cross-state transport, especially Mid-Atlantic coast regions that had struggled to meet the 75 ppb standard.     

The sensitivity of modeled ozone to the temporal distribution of point, area, and mobile source emissions in the eastern United States

Ozone remains one of the most recalcitrant air pollution problems in the US. Hourly emissions fields used in air quality models (AQMs) generally show less temporal variability than corresponding measurements from continuous emissions monitors (CEM) and field campaigns would imply. If emissions control scenarios to reduce emissions at peak ozone forming hours are to be assessed with AQMs, the effect of emissions' daily variability on modeled ozone must be understood. We analyzed the effects of altering all anthropogenic emissions' temporal distributions by source group on 2002 summer-long simulations of ozone using the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) v4.5 and the Carbon Bond IV (CBIV) chemical mechanism with 12 km resolution. We find that when mobile source emissions were made constant over the course of a day, 8-h maximum ozone predictions changed by ±7 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) in many urban areas on days when ozone concentrations greater than 80 ppbv were simulated in the base case. Increasing the temporal variation of point sources resulted in ozone changes of +6 and −6 ppbv, but only for small areas near sources. Changing the daily cycle of mobile source emissions produces substantial changes in simulated ozone, especially in urban areas at night; results suggest that shifting the emissions of NO_x from day to night, for example in electric powered vehicles recharged at night, could have beneficial impacts on air quality.     

Modeling the Effects of VOC/NOx Emissions on Ozone Synthesis in the Cascadia Airshed of the Pacific Northwest

ABSTRACT

A modeling system consisting of MM5, Calmet, and Calgrid was used to investigate the sensitivity of anthropogenic volatile organic compound (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) reductions on ozone formation within the Cascadia airshed of the Pacific Northwest. An ozone episode that occurred on July 11-14, 1996, was evaluated. During this event, high ozone levels were recorded at monitors downwind of Seattle, WA, and Portland, OR, with one monitor exceeding the 1 hr/120 ppb National Ambient Air Quality Standard (at 148 ppb), and six monitors above the proposed 8 hr/80 ppb standard (at 82-130 ppb). For this particular case, significant emissions reductions, between 25 and 75%, would be required to decrease peak ozone concentrations to desired levels. Reductions in VOC emissions alone, or a combination of reduced VOC and NO_x emissions, were generally found to be most effective; reducing NO_x emissions alone resulted in increased ozone in the Seattle area. When only VOC emissions were curtailed, ozone reductions occurred in the immediate vicinity of densely populated areas, while NO_x reductions resulted in more widespread ozone reductions.     

Projected ozone trends and changes in the ozone-precursor relationship in the South Coast Air Basin in response to varying reductions of precursor emissions

This study examined the effects of varying future reductions in emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) and volatile organic compounds (VOC) on the location and magnitude of peak ozone levels within California’s South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB or Basin). As ozone formation is currently VOC-limited in the Basin, model simulations with 2030 baseline emissions (?61% for NO_x and ?32% for VOC from 2008) predict 10–20% higher peak ozone levels (i.e., NO_x disbenefit) in the western and central SoCAB compared with the 2008 base simulation. With additional NO_x reductions of 50% beyond the 2030 baseline emissions (?81% from 2008), the predicted ozone levels are reduced by about 15% in the eastern SoCAB but remain comparable to 2008 levels in the western and central Basin. The Basin maximum ozone site shifts westward to more populated areas of the Basin and will result potentially in greater population-weighted exposure to ozone with even a relatively small shortfall in the required NO_x reductions unless accompanied by additional VOC reductions beyond 2030 baseline levels. Once committed to a NO_x-focused control strategy, NO_x reductions exceeding 90% from 2008 levels will be necessary to attain the ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). The findings from this study and other recent work that the current VOC emission estimates are underestimated by about 50% suggest that greater future VOC reductions will be necessary to reach the projected 2030 baseline emissions. Increasing the base year VOC emissions by a factor of 1.5 result in higher 2008 baseline ozone predictions, lower relative response factors, and about 20% lower projected design values. If correct, these findings have important implications for the total and optimum mix of VOC and NO_x emission reductions that will be required to attain the ozone NAAQS in the SoCAB.

Implications: Results of this study indicate that ozone levels in the western and central SoCAB would remain the same or increase with even a relatively small shortfall in the projected NO_x reductions under planned NO_x-focused controls. This possibility, therefore, warrants a rigorous analysis of the costs and effects of varying reductions of VOC and NO_x on the formation and combined health impacts of ozone and secondary particles. Given the nonlinearity of ozone formation, such analyses should include the implications of gradually increasing global background ozone concentrations and the Basin’s topography and meteorology on the practical limits of alternative emission control strategies.     

Air quality in Yanbu,Saudi Arabia

Yanbu, on the Red Sea, is an affluent Saudi Arabian industrial city of modest size. Substantial effort has been spent to balance environmental quality, especially air pollution, and industrial development. We have analyzed six years of observations of criteria pollutants O₃, SO₂, particles (PM_2.5 and PM₁₀) and the known ozone precursors—volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x). The results suggest frequent VOC-limited conditions in which ozone concentrations increase with decreasing NO_x and with increasing VOCs when NO_x is plentiful. For the remaining circumstances ozone has a complex non-linear relationship with the VOCs. The interactions between these factors at Yanbu cause measurable impacts on air pollution including the weekend effect in which ozone concentrations stay the same or even increase despite significantly lower emissions of the precursors on the weekends. Air pollution was lower during the Eids (al-Fitr and al-Adha), Ramadan and the Hajj periods. During Ramadan, there were substantial night time emissions as the cycle everyday living is almost reversed between night and day. The exceedances of air pollution standards were evaluated using criteria from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), World Health Organization (WHO), the Saudi Presidency of Meteorology and Environment (PME) and the Royal Commission Environmental Regulations (RCER). The latter are stricter standards set just for Yanbu and Jubail. For the fine particles (PM_2.5), an analysis of the winds showed a major impact from desert dust. This effect had to be taken into account but still left many occasions when standards were exceeded. Fewer exceedances were found for SO₂, and fewer still for ozone. The paper presents a comprehensive view of air quality at this isolated desert urban environment.

Implications: Frequent VOC-limited conditions are found at Yanbu in Saudi Arabia that increase ozone pollution if NO_x is are reduced. In this desert environment, increased nightlife produces the highest levels of VOCs and NO_x at night rather than the day. The effects increase during Ramadan. Fine particles peak twice a day—the morning peak is caused by traffic and increases with decreasing wind, potentially representing health concerns, but the larger afternoon peak is caused by the wind, and it increases with increasing wind speeds. These features suggest that exposure to pollutants must be redefined for such an environment.