Spatial and temporal variations in traffic-related particulate matter at New York City high schools

Relatively little is known about exposures to traffic-related particulate matter at schools located in dense urban areas. The purpose of this study was to examine the influences of diesel traffic proximity and intensity on ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and black carbon (BC), an indicator of diesel exhaust particles, at New York City (NYC) high schools. Outdoor PM_2.5 and BC were monitored continuously for 4–6 weeks at each of 3 NYC schools and 1 suburban school located 40 km upwind of the city. Traffic count data were obtained using an automated traffic counter or video camera. BC concentrations were 2–3 fold higher at urban schools compared with the suburban school, and among the 3 urban schools, BC concentrations were higher at schools located adjacent to highways. PM_2.5 concentrations were significantly higher at urban schools than at the suburban school, but concentrations did not vary significantly among urban schools. Both hourly average counts of trucks and buses and meteorological factors such as wind direction, wind speed, and humidity were significantly associated with hourly average ambient BC and PM_2.5 concentrations in multivariate regression models. An increase of 443 trucks/buses per hour was associated with a 0.62 μg/m³ increase in hourly average BC at an NYC school located adjacent to a major interstate highway. Car traffic counts were not associated with BC. The results suggest that local diesel vehicle traffic may be important sources of airborne fine particles in dense urban areas and consequently may contribute to local variations in PM_2.5 concentrations. In urban areas with higher levels of diesel traffic, local, neighborhood-scale monitoring of pollutants such as BC, which compared to PM_2.5, is a more specific indicator of diesel exhaust particles, may more accurately represent population exposures.     

Use of Subsampled Traffic Data to Estimate Roadway Emissions,Including Conversion to MOBILE6 Vehicle Classifications

Abstract

Air quality is degraded by many factors, among which the emissions from on‐road vehicles play a significant role. Timely and accurate estimate of such emissions becomes very important for policy‐making and effective control measures. However, lack of traffic data and outdated emission software make this task difficult. This research has demonstrated a new method that facilitates the vehicular emission inventories at the local level by using shorter-time Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) traffic data along with the latest U.S. Environment Protection Agency (EPA) emission modeling software, MOBILE6. The conversion methodology was developed for converting readily available HPMS traffic volume data into EPA MOBILE-based traffic classifications, and a corresponding software program was written for automating the process. EPA MOBILE6 model was used to obtain emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO_x), volatile organic compound (VOC), and cabon monoxide (CO) emitted by the parent traffic and subsampled traffic data, and these emissions were additionally compared. The case study has shown that the difference of the magnitude between the emission estimates produced by certain subsampled and parent traffic data are minor, indicating that subsampled HPMS data can be used for reporting parent traffic emissions. It was also observed that traffic emissions follow a Weibull distribution, and NO_x emissions were more sensitive to the traffic data composition than VOC and CO. Lastly, use of average emission values of 20 or 30 consecutive minutes appears to be valid for representing hourly emissions.     

Radical precursors and related species from traffic as observed and modeled at an urban highway junction

Nitrous acid (HONO) and formaldehyde (HCHO) are important precursors for radicals and are believed to favor ozone formation significantly. Traffic emission data for both compounds are scarce and mostly outdated. A better knowledge of today's HCHO and HONO emissions related to traffic is needed to refine air quality models. Here the authors report results from continuous ambient air measurements taken at a highway junction in Houston, Texas, from July 15 to October 15, 2009. The observational data were compared with emission estimates from currently available mobile emission models (MOBILE6; MOVES [MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator]). Observations indicated a molar carbon monoxide (CO) versus nitrogen oxides (NO_x) ratio of 6.01 ± 0.15 (r ² = 0.91), which is in agreement with other field studies. Both MOBILE6 and MOVES overestimate this emission ratio by 92% and 24%, respectively. For HCHO/CO, an overall slope of 3.14 ± 0.14 g HCHO/kg CO was observed. Whereas MOBILE6 largely underestimates this ratio by 77%, MOVES calculates somewhat higher HCHO/CO ratios (1.87) than MOBILE6, but is still significantly lower than the observed ratio. MOVES shows high HCHO/CO ratios during the early morning hours due to heavy-duty diesel off-network emissions. The differences of the modeled CO/NO_x and HCHO/CO ratios are largely due to higher NO_x and HCHO emissions in MOVES (30% and 57%, respectively, increased from MOBILE6 for 2009), as CO emissions were about the same in both models. The observed HONO/NO_x emission ratio is around 0.017 ± 0.0009 kg HONO/kg NO_x which is twice as high as in MOVES. The observed NO₂/NO_x emission ratio is around 0.16 ± 0.01 kg NO₂/kg NO_x, which is a bit more than 50% higher than in MOVES. MOVES overestimates the CO/CO₂ emission ratio by a factor of 3 compared with the observations, which is 0.0033 ± 0.0002 kg CO/kg CO₂. This as well as CO/NO_x overestimation is coming from light-duty gasoline vehicles.

Implications: Nitrous acid (HONO) and formaldehyde (HCHO) are important precursors for radicals that ultimately contribute to ozone formation. There still exist uncertainties in emission sources of HONO and HCHO and thus regional air quality modeling still tend to underestimate concentrations of free radicals in the atmosphere. This paper demonstrates that the latest U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) traffic emission model MOVES still shows significant deviations from observed emission ratios, in particular underestimation of HCHO/CO and HONO/NO_x ratios. Improving the performance of MOVES may improve regional air quality modeling.     

Acute effect of daily fine particulate matter pollution on cerebrovascular mortality in Shanghai,China: a population-based time series study

Numerous studies have investigated the impacts of ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) on human health. In this study, we examined the association of daily PM_2.5 concentrations with the number of deaths for the cerebrovascular disease on the same day, using the generalized additive model (GAM) controlling for temporal trend and meteorological variables. We used the data between 2012 and 2014 from Shanghai, China, where the adverse health effects of PM_2.5 have been of particular concern. Three different approaches (principal component analysis, shrinkage smoothers, and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regularization) were used in GAM to handle multicollinear meteorological variables. Our results indicate that the average daily concentration of PM_2.5 in Shanghai was high, 55 μg/m³, with an average daily death for cerebrovascular disease (CVD) of 62. There was 1.7% raised cerebrovascular disease deaths per 10 μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 concentration in the unadjusted model. However, PM_2.5 concentration was no longer associated with CVD deaths after controlling for meteorological variables. The results were consistent in the three modelling techniques that we used. As a large number of people are exposed to air pollution, further investigation with longer time period including individual-level information is needed to examine the association.

     

Development of an individual exposure model for application to the Southern California children's health study

The Southern California Children's Health Study (CHS) investigated the relationship between air pollution and children's chronic respiratory health outcomes. Ambient air pollutant measurements from a single CHS monitoring station in each community were used as surrogates for personal exposures of all children in that community. To improve exposure estimates for the CHS children, we developed an Individual Exposure Model (IEM) to retrospectively estimate the long-term average exposure of the individual CHS children to CO, NO₂, PM₁₀, PM_2.5, and elemental carbon (EC) of ambient origin. In the IEM, pollutant concentrations due to both local mobile source emissions (LMSE) and meteorologically transported pollutants were taken into account by combining a line source model (CALINE4) with a regional air quality model (SMOG). To avoid double counting, local mobile sources were removed from SMOG and added back by CALINE4. Limited information from the CHS survey was used to group each child into a specific time-activity category, for which corresponding Consolidated Human Activity Database (CHAD) time-activity profiles were sampled. We found local traffic significantly increased within-community variability of exposure to vehicle-related pollutants. PM-associated exposures were influenced more by meteorologically transported pollutants and local non-mobile source emissions than by LMSE. The overall within-community variability of personal exposures was highest for NO₂ (±20–40%), followed by EC (±17–27%), PM₁₀ (±15–25%), PM_2.5 (±15–20%), and CO (±9–14%). Between-community exposure differences were affected by community location, traffic density, and locations of residences and schools in each community. Proper siting of air monitoring stations relative to emission sources is important to capture community mean exposures.     

A highly resolved temporal and spatial air pollutant emission inventory for the Pearl River Delta region, China and its uncertainty assessment

A highly resolved temporal and spatial Pearl River Delta (PRD) regional emission inventory for the year 2006 was developed with the use of best available domestic emission factors and activity data. The inventory covers major emission sources in the region and a bottom–up approach was adopted to compile the inventory for those sources where possible. The results show that the estimates for SO₂, NO_x, CO, PM₁₀, PM_2.5 and VOC emissions in the PRD region for the year 2006 are 711.4 kt, 891.9 kt, 3840.6 kt, 418.4 kt, 204.6 kt, and 1180.1 kt, respectively. About 91.4% of SO₂ emissions were from power plant and industrial sources, and 87.2% of NO_x emissions were from power plant and mobile sources. The industrial, mobile and power plant sources are major contributors to PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 emissions, accounting for 97.7% of the total PM₁₀ and 97.2% of PM_2.5 emissions, respectively. Mobile, biogenic and VOC product-related sources are responsible for 90.5% of the total VOC emissions. The emissions are spatially allocated onto grid cells with a resolution of 3 km × 3 km, showing that anthropogenic air pollutant emissions are mainly distributed over PRD central-southern city cluster areas. The preliminary temporal profiles were established for the power plant, industrial and on-road mobile sources. There is relatively low uncertainty in SO₂ emission estimates with a range of −16% to +21% from power plant sources, medium to high uncertainty for the NO_x emissions, and high uncertainties in the VOC, PM_2.5, PM₁₀ and CO emissions.     

Source apportionment of particulate matter (PM2.5) in an urban area using dispersion,receptor and inverse modelling

Air pollution emission inventories are the basis for air quality assessment and management strategies. The quality of the inventories is of great importance since these data are essential for air pollution impact assessments using dispersion models. In this study, the quality of the emission inventory for fine particulates (PM_2.5) is assessed: first, using the calculated source contributions from a receptor model; second, using source apportionment from a dispersion model; and third, by applying a simple inverse modelling technique which utilises multiple linear regression of the dispersion model source contributions together with the observed PM_2.5 concentrations. For the receptor modelling the chemical composition of PM_2.5 filter samples from a measurement campaign performed between January 2004 and April 2005 are analysed. Positive matrix factorisation is applied as the receptor model to detect and quantify the various source contributions. For the same observational period and site, dispersion model calculations using the Air Quality Management system, AirQUIS, are performed. The results identify significant differences between the dispersion and receptor model source apportionment, particularly for wood burning and traffic induced suspension. For wood burning the receptor model calculations are lower, by a factor of 0.54, but for the traffic induced suspension they are higher, by a factor of 7.1. Inverse modelling, based on regression of the dispersion model source contributions and the PM_2.5 concentrations, indicates similar discrepancies in the emissions inventory. In order to assess if the differences found at the one site are generally applicable throughout Oslo, the individual source category emissions are rescaled according to the receptor modelling results. These adjusted PM_2.5 concentrations are compared with measurements at four independent stations to evaluate the updated inventory. Statistical analysis shows improvement in the estimated concentrations for PM_2.5 at all sites. Similarly, inverse modelling is applied at these independent sites and this confirms the validity of the receptor model results.     

Characteristics and origins of air pollutants in Wuhan,China, based on observations and hybrid receptor models

To identify the characteristics of air pollutants and factors attributing to the formation of haze in Wuhan, this study analyzed the hourly observations of air pollutants (PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO₂, SO₂, O₃, and CO) from March 1, 2013, to February 28, 2014, and used hybrid receptor models for a case study. The results showed that the annual average concentrations for PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO₂, SO₂, O₃, and CO during the whole period were 89.6 μg m^?3, 134.9 μg m^?3, 54.9 μg m^?3, 32.4 μg m^?3, 62.3 μg m^?3, and 1.1 mg m^?3, respectively. The monthly variations revealed that the peak values of PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO₂, SO₂, and CO occurred in December because of increased local emissions and severe weather conditions, while the lowest values occurred in July mainly due to larger precipitation. The maximum O₃ concentrations occurred in warm seasons from May to August, which may be partly due to the high temperature and solar radiation. Diurnal analysis showed that hourly PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO₂, and CO concentrations had two ascending stages accompanying by the two traffic peaks. However, the O₃ concentration variations were different with the highest concentration in the afternoon. A case study utilizing hybrid receptor models showed the significant impact of regional transport on the haze formation in Wuhan and revealed that the mainly potential polluted sources were located in the north and south of Wuhan, such as Baoding and Handan in Hebei province, and Changsha in Hunan province. Implications: Wuhan city requires a 5% reduction of the annual mean of PM_2.5 concentration by the end of 2017. In order to accomplish this goal, Wuhan has adopted some measures to improve its air quality. This work has determined the main pollution sources that affect the formation of haze in Wuhan by transport. We showed that apart from the local emissions, north and south of Wuhan were the potential sources contributing to the high PM_2.5 concentrations in Wuhan, such as Baoding and Handan in Hebei province, Zhumadian and Jiaozuo in Henan province, and Changsha and Zhuzhou in Hunan province.     

A measurement campaign in a street canyon in Helsinki and comparison of results with predictions of the OSPM model

In 1997, a measuring campaign was conducted in a street canyon (Runeberg St.) in Helsinki. Hourly mean concentrations of CO, NO_x, NO₂ and O₃ were measured at street and roof levels, the latter in order to determine the urban background concentrations. The relevant hourly meteorological parameters were measured at roof level; these included wind speed and direction, temperature and solar radiation. Hourly street level measurements and on-site electronic traffic counts were conducted throughout the whole of 1997; roof level measurements were conducted for approximately two months, from 3 March to 30 April in 1997. CO and NO_x emissions from traffic were computed using measured hourly traffic volumes and evaluated emission factors. The Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPM) was used to calculate the street concentrations and the results were compared with the measurements. The overall agreement between measured and predicted concentrations was good for CO and NO_x (fractional bias were −4.2 and +4.5%, respectively), but the model overpredicted the measured NO₂ concentrations (fractional bias was +22%). The agreement between the measured and predicted values was also analysed in terms of its dependence on wind speed and direction; the latter analysis was performed separately for two categories of wind velocity. The model qualitatively reproduces the observed behaviour very well. The database, which contains all measured and predicted data, is available for further testing of other street canyon dispersion models. The dataset contains a larger proportion of low wind speed cases, compared with other available street canyon measurement datasets.     

Measurements and modelling of PM2.5 concentrations near a major road in Kuopio,Finland

A particle measurement campaign was conducted in a suburban environment near a major road in Kuopio, Central Finland from 3 August to 9 September 1999. The mass concentrations of fine particles (PM_2.5) were measured simultaneously at distances of 12, 25, 52 and 87 m from the centre of a major road at a height of 1.8 m, using identical samplers. The concentration measurements were conducted during 16 daytime hours (from 6.00 a.m. to 10.00 p.m.) for 27 days. Traffic flows and relevant meteorological parameters were measured on-site; meteorological measurements from a nearby synoptic weather station were also utilised. We also suggest a preliminary model for predicting the concentrations of PM_2.5 and apply this model in order to analyse the measured data. The regionally and long-range transported contribution was evaluated on the basis of a semi-empirical mathematical model utilising as input values the daily sulphate, nitrate and ammonium measurements at the EMEP stations (Co-operative programme for monitoring and evaluation of the long-range transmission of air pollutants in Europe). The influence of primary vehicular emissions from the nearest roads was evaluated using a roadside emission and dispersion model, CAR-FMI, in combination with a meteorological pre-processing model, MPP-FMI. The contribution of non-exhaust particulate matter emissions (including resuspension of particulate matter from road surfaces) was estimated simply to be directly proportional to the concentrations originating from primary vehicular emissions. Comparison of the predicted results and measurements yields information on the relative importance of various source categories of the measured concentrations of PM_2.5. The regionally and long-range transported contribution, the primary and non-exhaust vehicular emissions, and other sources were estimated to contribute on average 41±6%, 33±6% and 26±7% of the observed PM_2.5 concentrations, respectively. The model presented could also be applied in other European cities for analysing the source contributions to measured fine particulate matter concentrations.     

Characterizing the spatiotemporal variability of PM2.5 in Cusco,Peru using kriging with external drift

Advancing the understanding of spatiotemporal aspects of air pollution in the urban environment is an area where improved methods can be of great benefit to exposure assessment and policy support. This paper explores the potential of a technique known as kriging with external drift (KED) to provide high resolution maps of fine particulate matter for a downtown region of Cusco, Peru. There were three stages in this research. The first was to conduct a pilot level monitoring campaign to investigate ambient, regional, and street-level air pollutant concentrations for particulate matter (PM_2.5, PM₁₀) and carbon monoxide (CO) in the Province of Cusco. The second was to compile observations within a geographic information system (GIS) in order to characterize the proximal effect of the local transportation network, elevation, and land use classifications on PM_2.5. Third, regression, ordinary kriging and kriging with external drift were used to model PM_2.5 for three select time periods during a 24-h day. Statistical evaluations indicate kriging with external drift resulted in the strongest models explaining 64% of variability seen with morning particle concentrations, 25% for afternoon particles, and 53% in evening particles. These models capture spatial and temporal variability for air pollution in Cusco. These variations seem to be influenced, to varying degrees, by elevation, meteorological conditions, spatial location, and transportation characteristics. In conclusion, combining GIS, meteorological data and geostatistics proved to be a complementary suite of tools for incorporating spatiotemporal analysis into the air quality assessment.     

An Assessment of the Emissions Inventory Processing Systems EMS-2001 and SMOKE in Grid-Based Air Quality Models

Abstract

In the United States, emission processing models such as Emissions Modeling System-2001 (EMS-2001), Emissions Preprocessor System-Version 2.5 (EPS2.5), and the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) model are currently being used to generate gridded, hourly, speciated emission inputs for urban and regional-scale photochemical models from aggregated pollutant inventories. In this study, two models, EMS-2001 and SMOKE, were applied with their default internal data sets to process a common inventory database for a high ozone (O₃) episode over the eastern United States using the Carbon Bond IV (CB4) chemical speciation mechanism. A comparison of the emissions processed by these systems shows differences in all three of the major processing steps performed by the two models (i.e., in temporal allocation, spatial allocation, and chemical speciation). Results from a simulation with a photochemical model using these two sets of emissions indicate differences on the order of ±20 ppb in the predicted 1-hr daily maximum O₃ concentrations. It is therefore critical to develop and implement more common and synchronized temporal, spatial, and speciation cross-reference systems such that the processes within each emissions model converge toward reasonably similar results. This would also help to increase confidence in the validity of photochemical grid model results by reducing one aspect of modeling uncertainty.     

A gas/aerosol air pollutants study over the urban area of Rome using a comprehensive chemical transport model

The aim of this study was to identify areas of potential relevant exposure to pollutants within Rome's urban core. To meet this goal, intensive field campaigns were conducted and simulations were performed, using the flexible air quality regional model (FARM), to study winter and summer pollution episodes. The simulations were performed using a complete emission inventory that included traffic flow model results of the Roman street network to better describe, with respect to the available diffuse national emission inventory, the hourly variation of traffic emissions in the city. The meteorological reconstruction was performed by means of both prognostic and diagnostic models by using experimental data collected during the field campaigns. To evaluate the capability of the FARM model to capture the main features of the selected episodes, a comparison of modelled results against observed air quality data for different pollutants was performed at urban and rural sites. FARM performed well in predicting ozone (O₃) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) concentrations, showing a good reproduction of both daily peaks and their diurnal variations. The model also showed a good capability to reproduce the magnitude of volatile alkane, aromatic and carbonyl compound concentrations. PM₁₀ model results revealed the tendency to under-predict the observed values. PM composition model results were compared with observed data, evidencing good results for elemental carbon (EC), nitrate (NO₃⁻) and ammonium (NH₄⁺), underestimation for sulphate (SO₄²⁻) and poor performance for organic matter (OM). The soil components of PM were found to be significantly under-predicted by the model, especially during Saharan dust episodes. Overall, the study results show large areas of high O₃ and PM₁₀ concentrations where levels of pollutants should be carefully monitored and population exposure evaluated.     

A comparative performance evaluation of the AURAMS and CMAQ air-quality modelling systems

A harmonized comparative performance evaluation of A Unified Regional Air-quality Modelling System (AURAMS) v1.3.1b and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) v4.6 air-quality modelling systems was conducted on the same North American grid for July 2002 using the same emission inventories, emissions processor, and input meteorology.Comparison of AURAMS- and CMAQ-predicted O₃ concentrations against hourly surface measurement data showed a lower normalized mean bias (NMB) of 20.7% for AURAMS versus 46.4% for CMAQ. However, AURAMS and CMAQ had more similar normalized mean errors (NMEs) of 46.9% and 54.2%, respectively. Both models did similarly well in predicting daily 1-h O₃ maximums; however, AURAMS performed better in calculating daily minimums. CMAQ's poorer performance for O₃ is partly due to its inability to correctly predict nighttime lows.Total PM_2.5 hourly surface concentration was under-predicted by both AURAMS and CMAQ with NMBs of ?10.4% and ?65.2%, respectively. However, as with O₃, both models had similar NMEs of 68.0% and 70.6%, respectively. In general, AURAMS performance was better than CMAQ for all major PM_2.5 species except nitrate and elemental carbon. Both models significantly under-predicted total organic aerosols (TOAs), although the mean AURAMS concentration was over four times larger than CMAQ's. The under-prediction of TOA was partly due to the exclusion of forest-fire emissions. Sea-salt aerosol made up approximately 50.2% of the AURAMS total PM_2.5 surface concentration versus only 6.2% in CMAQ when averaged over all grid cells. When averaged over land cells only, sea-salt still contributed 13.9% to the total PM_2.5 mass in AURAMS versus 2.0% in CMAQ.     

Uncertainty in health risks due to anthropogenic primary fine particulate matter from different source types in Finland

The emission-exposure and exposure-response (toxicity) relationships are different for different emission source categories of anthropogenic primary fine particulate matter (PM_2.5). These variations have a potentially crucial importance in the integrated assessment, when determining cost-effective abatement strategies. We studied the importance of these variations by conducting a sensitivity analysis for an integrated assessment model. The model was developed to estimate the adverse health effects to the Finnish population attributable to primary PM_2.5 emissions from the whole of Europe. The primary PM_2.5 emissions in the whole of Europe and in more detail in Finland were evaluated using the inventory of the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) and the Finnish Regional Emission Scenario model (FRES), respectively. The emission-exposure relationships for different primary PM_2.5 emission source categories in Finland have been previously evaluated and these values incorporated as intake fractions into the integrated assessment model. The primary PM_2.5 exposure-response functions and toxicity differences for the pollution originating from different source categories were estimated in an expert elicitation study performed by six European experts on air pollution health effects. The primary PM_2.5 emissions from Finnish and other European sources were estimated for the population of Finland in 2000 to be responsible for 209 (mean, 95% confidence interval 6–739) and 357 (mean, 95% CI 8–1482) premature deaths, respectively. The inclusion of emission-exposure and toxicity variation into the model increased the predicted relative importance of traffic related primary PM_2.5 emissions and correspondingly, decreased the predicted relative importance of other emission source categories. We conclude that the variations of emission-exposure relationship and toxicity between various source categories had significant impacts for the assessment on premature deaths caused by primary PM_2.5.     

A Study of the Association between Daily Mortality and Ambient Air Pollutant Concentrations in Pittsburgh,Pennsylvania

ABSTRACT

We have studied the possible association of daily mortality with ambient pollutant concentrations (PM₁₀, CO, O₃, SO₂, NO₂, and fine [PM_{2 5}] and coarse PM) and weather variables (temperature and dew point) in the Pittsburgh, PA, area for two age groups—less than 75, and 75 and over—for the 3-year period of 1989-1991. Correlation functions among pollutant concentrations show important seasonal dependence, and this fact necessitates the use of seasonal models to better identify the link between ambient pollutant concentrations and daily mortality. An analysis of the seasonal model results for the younger-age group reveals significant multicollinearity problems among the highly correlated concentrations of PM₁₀, CO, and NO₂ (and O₃ in spring and summer), and calls into question the rather consistent results of the single- and multi-pollutant non-seasonal models that show a significant positive association between PM₁₀ and daily mortality. For the older-age group, dew point consistently shows a significant association with daily mortality in all models. Collinearity problems appear in the multi-pollutant seasonal and non-seasonal models such that a significant, positive PM₁₀ coefficient is accompanied by a significant, negative coefficient of another ambient pollutant, and the identity of this other pollutant changes with season. The PM₂₅ data set is half that of PM₁₀. Identical-model runs for both data sets reveal instability in the pollutant coefficients, especially for the younger age group. The concern for the instability of the pollutant coefficients due to a small signal-to-noise ratio makes it impossible to ascertain credibly the relative associations of the fine- and coarse-particle modes with daily mortality. In this connection, we call for caution in the interpretation of model results for causal inference when the models use fully or partially estimated PM values to fill large data gaps.     

The Steubenville Comprehensive Air Monitoring Program (SCAMP): Analysis of Short-Term and Episodic Variations in PM2.5 Concentrations Using Hourly Air Monitoring Data

Abstract

One-hour average ambient concentrations of particulate matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm (PM_2.5) were determined in Steubenville, OH, between June 2000 and May 2002 with a tapered element oscillating microbalance (TEOM). Hourly average gaseous copollutant [carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen oxide (NO_x), and ozone (O₃)] concentrations and meteorological conditions also were measured. Although 75% of the 14,682 hourly PM_2.5 concentrations measured during this period were ≤17 μg/m³, concentrations >65 μg/m³ were observed 76 times. On average, PM_2.5 concentrations at Steubenville exhibited a diurnal pattern of higher early morning concentrations and lower afternoon concentrations, similar to the diurnal profiles of CO and NO_x. This pattern was highly variable; however, PM_2.5 concentrations >65 μg/m³ were never observed during the mid-afternoon between 1:00 p.m. and 5:00 p.m. EST. Twenty-two episodes centered on one or more of these elevated concentrations were identified. Five episodes occurred during the months June through August; the maximum PM_2.5 concentration during these episodes was 76.6 μg/m³. Episodes occurring during climatologically cooler months often featured higher peak concentrations (five had maximum concentrations between 95.0 and 139.6 μg/m³), and many exhibited strong covariation between PM_2.5 and CO, NO_x, or SO₂. Case studies suggested that nocturnal surface-based temperature inversions were influential in driving high nighttime concentrations of these species during several cool season episodes, which typically had dramatically lower afternoon concentrations. These findings provide insights that may be useful in the development of PM_2.5 reduction strategies for Steubenville, and suggest that studies assessing possible health effects of PM_2.5 should carefully consider exposure issues related to the intraday timing of PM_2.5 episodes, as well as the potential for toxicological interactions among PM_2.5 and primary gaseous pollutants.     

Impact of underestimating the effects of cold temperature on motor vehicle start emissions of air toxics in the United States

Analyses of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) certification data, California Air Resources Board surveillance testing data, and EPA research testing data indicated that EPA's MOBILE6.2 emission factor model substantially underestimates emissions of gaseous air toxics occurring during vehicle starts at cold temperatures for light-duty vehicles and trucks meeting EPA Tier 1 and later standards. An unofficial version of the MOBILE6.2 model was created to account for these underestimates. When this unofficial version of the model was used to project emissions into the future, emissions increased by almost 100% by calendar year 2030, and estimated modeled ambient air toxics concentrations increased by 6-84%, depending on the pollutant. To address these elevated emissions, EPA recently finalized standards requiring reductions of emissions when engines start at cold temperatures.     

Predicting hourly air pollutant levels using artificial neural networks coupled with uncertainty analysis by Monte Carlo simulations

Recent progress in developing artificial neural network (ANN) metamodels has paved the way for reliable use of these models in the prediction of air pollutant concentrations in urban atmosphere. However, improvement of prediction performance, proper selection of input parameters and model architecture, and quantification of model uncertainties remain key challenges to their practical use. This study has three main objectives: to select an ensemble of input parameters for ANN metamodels consisting of meteorological variables that are predictable by conventional weather forecast models and variables that properly describe the complex nature of pollutant source conditions in a major city, to optimize the ANN models to achieve the most accurate hourly prediction for a case study (city of Tehran), and to examine a methodology to analyze uncertainties based on ANN and Monte Carlo simulations (MCS). In the current study, the ANNs were constructed to predict criteria pollutants of nitrogen oxides (NO_x), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), nitrogen monoxide (NO), ozone (O₃), carbon monoxide (CO), and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter of less than 10 μm (PM₁₀) in Tehran based on the data collected at a monitoring station in the densely populated central area of the city. The best combination of input variables was comprehensively investigated taking into account the predictability of meteorological input variables and the study of model performance, correlation coefficients, and spectral analysis. Among numerous meteorological variables, wind speed, air temperature, relative humidity and wind direction were chosen as input variables for the ANN models. The complex nature of pollutant source conditions was reflected through the use of hour of the day and month of the year as input variables and the development of different models for each day of the week. After that, ANN models were constructed and validated, and a methodology of computing prediction intervals (PI) and probability of exceeding air quality thresholds was developed by combining ANNs and MCSs based on Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). The results showed that proper ANN models can be used as reliable metamodels for the prediction of hourly air pollutants in urban environments. High correlations were obtained with R ² of more than 0.82 between modeled and observed hourly pollutant levels for CO, NO_x, NO₂, NO, and PM₁₀. However, predicted O₃ levels were less accurate. The combined use of ANNs and MCSs seems very promising in analyzing air pollution prediction uncertainties. Replacing deterministic predictions with probabilistic PIs can enhance the reliability of ANN models and provide a means of quantifying prediction uncertainties.     

Evaluation of the European population intake fractions for European and Finnish anthropogenic primary fine particulate matter emissions

The intake fraction (iF) has been defined as the integrated incremental intake of a pollutant released from a source category or region summed over all exposed individuals. In this study we evaluated the iFs in the population of Europe for emissions of anthropogenic primary fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) from sources in Europe, with a more detailed analysis of the iF from Finnish sources. Parameters for calculating the iFs include the emission strengths, the predicted atmospheric concentrations, European population data, and the average breathing rate per person. Emissions for the whole of Europe and Finland were based on the inventories of the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) and the Finnish Regional Emission Scenario (FRES) model, respectively. The atmospheric dispersion of primary PM_2.5 was computed using the regional-scale dispersion model SILAM. The iFs from Finnish sources were also computed separately for six emission source categories. The iFs corresponding to the primary PM_2.5 emissions from the European countries for the whole population of Europe were generally highest for the densely populated Western European countries, second highest for the Eastern and Southern European countries, and lowest for the Northern European and Baltic countries. For the entire European population, the iF values varied from the lowest value of 0.31 per million for emissions from Cyprus, to the highest value of 4.42 per million for emissions from Belgium. These results depend on the regional distribution of the population and the prevailing long-term meteorological conditions. Regarding Finnish primary PM_2.5 emissions, the iF was highest for traffic emissions (0.68 per million) and lowest for major power plant emissions (0.50 per million). The results provide new information that can be used to find the most cost-efficient emission abatement strategies and policies.