The ozone source–receptor model – A tool for UK ozone policy

The Ozone Source–Receptor Model (OSRM) is a Lagrangian trajectory model developed to describe photochemical ozone production in the UK. The OSRM builds on existing boundary layer trajectory models used previously for assisting the development of UK ozone policy, but has a number of notable differences. A novel feature of the OSRM is a surface conversion module to represent the vertical gradient in ozone arising from chemical loss and deposition to the surface. This has significantly improved the performance of the model, especially in urban areas. In this paper, the modelling system is described and its performance against measured ozone concentrations and metrics and other UK ozone models is discussed. The model has been used to calculate future ozone concentrations in the UK and thus to assess a number of possible control measures developed for the UK Air Quality Strategy.     

Process analysis of ozone formation under different weather conditions over the Kanto region of Japan using the MM5/CMAQ modelling system

We have assessed the contributions of individual physical and chemical atmospheric processes on ozone formation under different weather conditions during a typical summer month (August 2005) using the MM5/CMAQ modelling system. We found that the ozone episodes in the Kanto region are dominated by three major patterns, of which Patterns I and II are regular summertime pressure patterns with a 26% and 16% frequency of occurrence, respectively. A process analysis at two typical sites in the Kanto region – one located in the central region of Tokyo and the other located in the rural areas of Kanto – indicates that ozone formation is mainly controlled by advection, vertical diffusion, dry deposition, and chemical processes. The ground-level ozone concentrations are enhanced mainly by the vertical mixing of ozone-rich air from aloft, whereas the dry deposition and chemical processes mainly deplete ozone. By investigating the effects of each process under different weather conditions, we found that the significant decrease in ozone removal due to the chemical and advection processes under conditions of high stagnation is the most important cause of the enhanced levels of ozone in the central region of Tokyo. The results of this study can contribute to a better understanding of ozone formation in the Kanto region, and they may be valuable for local policy makers for further development planning.     

Long term changes in nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds in Toronto and the challenges facing local ozone control

Ground level ozone represents a significant air quality concern in Toronto, Canada, where the national 65 ppb 8-h standard is repeatedly exceeded during the summer. Here we present an analysis of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), ozone (O₃), and volatile organic compound (VOC) data from federal and provincial governmental monitoring sites from 2000 to 2007. We show that summertime VOC reactivity and ambient concentrations of NO₂ have decreased over this period of time by up to 40% across Toronto and the surrounding region. This has not resulted in significant summertime ozone reductions, and in some urban areas, it appears to be increasing. We discuss the competing effects of decreased ozone titration leading to an increase in O₃, and decreased local ozone production, both caused by significant decreases in NO_x concentrations. In addition, by using local meteorological data, we show that annual variability in summer ozone correlates strongly with maximum daily temperatures, and we explore the effect of atmospheric transport from the southwest which has a significant influence on early morning levels before local production begins. A mathematical model of instantaneous ozone production is presented which suggests that, given the observed decreases in NO_x and VOC reactivity, we would not expect a significant change in local ozone production under photochemically relevant conditions. These results are discussed in the context of Toronto's recent commitment to cutting local smog-causing pollutants by 20% by 2012.     

An observation-based model for analyzing ozone precursor relationships in the urban atmosphere

An Observation-Based Model (OBM) is described, which uses in-situ atmospheric observations to determine the sensitivity of ozone concentrations in an urban atmosphere to changes in the emissions of ozone precursors (i.e., volatile organic compounds and nitrogen oxides). The model is formulated following the concept of Relative Incremental Reactivity (RIR) developed by Carter and Atkinson. In the OBM, however, observed concentrations rather than emission inventories are used to drive the photochemical simulations and thereby ensure that the calculations are carried out for the proper mix of nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds. From these calculations, a series of sensitivity factors, or RIRs, are inferred that can be used to (1) determine whether reducing emissions of nitrogen oxide or emissions of hydrocarbons would be most effective in abating ozone in a given urban area, and (2) identify the most critical subset of hydrocarbons present in an urban atmosphere causing ozone exceedances. Because the OBM is relatively easy and inexpensive to operate and makes use of data that are increasingly available, it can be used to analyze a wide array of ozone episodes and, thus, could prove to be a relatively cost-effective tool for the analysis of ozone precursor relationships in an urban atmosphere. On the other hand, because the OBM is diagnostic rather than prognostic, it cannot be used in a predictive mode to estimate exactly how much emission reduction is needed to reduce ozone concentrations. For this reason, the OBM should be viewed as a complement to, rather than a substitute for, more sophisticated gridded, emission-based models. To illustrate the characteristics of the OBM and to demonstrate its applicability, we first compare the results of the OBM to those obtained from a series of simulations of the Atlanta metropolitan area using the Urban Airshed Model (UAM), a three-dimensional Eulerian grid model. The OBM is then used to analyze a dataset obtained from the 1990 Atlanta Ozone Study, an EPA field sampling program conducted during the summer of 1990. Because of limitations and potential flaws in the 1990 Atlanta dataset, the results of this OBM analysis are largely illustrative rather than definitive. Nevertheless, a few important issues are elucidated by the analysis. These include (1) the importance of accounting for biogenic hydrocarbons produced from urban vegetation; (2) the potential flaw in using early-morning VOC-to-NOx ratios to infer whether ozone production is limited by VOC or NOx; (3) the critical need for high-sensitivity nitrogen oxide measurements to quantify the sub-ppbv concentrations of NO during the afternoon hours; and (4) the need to consider a number of individual ozone episodes in studying an urban atmosphere because of the possibility that the degree of VOC- and NOx-limitation may vary from one episode to another.     

Application of the Urban Airshed Model to Forecasting Next-Day Peak Ozone Concentrations in Atlanta,Georgia

ABSTRACT

Twenty-four to forty-eight-hour ozone air quality forecasts are increasingly being used in metropolitan areas to inform the public about potentially harmful air quality conditions. The forecasts are also behind “ozone action day” programs in which the public and private sectors are encouraged or mandated to alter activities that contribute to the formation of ground-level ozone. Presented here is a low-cost application of the Urban Airshed Model (UAM), an Eulerian 3-dimensional photochemical-transport grid model for generating next-day peak ozone concentration forecasts. During the summer of 1997, next-day peak ozone concentrations in Atlanta, GA, were predicted both by a team of eight forecasters and by the Urban Airshed Model in Forecast Mode (UAM-FM). Results are presented that compare the accuracy of the team and the UAM-FM. The results for the summer of 1997 indicate that the UAM-FM may be a better predictor of peak ozone concentrations when concentrations are high (> 0.095 ppmv), and the team may be a better predictor of ozone concentrations when concentrations are low (< 0.095 ppmv). The UAM-FM is also discussed in the context of other forecasting tools, primarily linear regression models and a no-skill, persistence-based technique.     

Application of the Urban Airshed Model to forecasting next-day peak ozone concentrations in Atlanta, Georgia

Twenty-four to forty-eight-hour ozone air quality forecasts are increasingly being used in metropolitan areas to inform the public about potentially harmful air quality conditions. The forecasts are also behind "ozone action day" programs in which the public and private sectors are encouraged or mandated to alter activities that contribute to the formation of ground-level ozone. Presented here is a low-cost application of the Urban Airshed Model (UAM), an Eulerian 3-dimensional photochemical-transport grid model for generating next-day peak ozone concentration forecasts. During the summer of 1997, next-day peak ozone concentrations in Atlanta, GA, were predicted both by a team of eight forecasters and by the Urban Airshed Model in Forecast Mode (UAM-FM). Results are presented that compare the accuracy of the team and the UAM-FM. The results for the summer of 1997 indicate that the UAM-FM may be a better predictor of peak ozone concentrations when concentrations are high (> 0.095 ppmv), and the team may be a better predictor of ozone concentrations when concentrations are low (< or = 0.095 ppmv). The UAM-FM is also discussed in the context of other forecasting tools, primarily linear regression models and a no-skill, persistence-based technique.     

High ozone levels in the northeast of Portugal: Analysis and characterization

Each summer period extremely high ozone levels are registered at the rural background station of Lamas d'Olo, located in the Northeast of Portugal. In average, 30% of the total alert threshold registered in Portugal is detected at this site. The main purpose of this study is to characterize the atmospheric conditions that lead to the ozone-rich episodes at this site. Synoptic patterns anomalies and back trajectories cluster analysis were performed, for the period between 2004 and 2007, considering 76 days when ozone maximum hourly concentrations were above 200 μg m^?3. The obtained atmospheric anomaly fields suggested that a positive temperature anomaly is visible above the Iberian Peninsula. A strong wind flow pattern from NE is observable in the North of Portugal and Galicia, in Spain. These two features may lead to an enhancement of the photochemical production and to the transport of pollutants from Spain to Portugal. In addition, the 3D mean back trajectories associated to the ozone episode days were analysed. A clustering method has been applied to the obtained back trajectories. Four main clusters of ozone-rich episodes were identified, with different frequencies of occurrence: north-westerly flows (11%); north-easterly flows (45%), southern flow (4%) and westerly flows (40%). Both analyses highlight the NE flow as a dominant pattern over the North of Portugal during summer. The analysis of the ozone concentrations for each selected cluster indicates that this northeast circulation pattern, together with the southern flow, are responsible for the highest ozone peak episodes. This also suggests that long-range transport of atmospheric pollutants is the main contributor to the ozone levels registered at Lamas d'Olo. This is also highlighted by the correlation of the ozone time-series with the meteorological parameters analysed in the frequency domain.     

Summer ozone episodes in the Greater Madrid area. Analyzing the ozone response to abatement strategies by modelling

The development of ozone control strategies requires analysing the sensitivity of the dispersion model used to changes in emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO_X) and volatile organic compounds. The ozone response to variations in road traffic and total anthropogenic emissions is evaluated for two different summer ozone episodes in the Greater Madrid Area (GMA). This study uses the TVM model and a transport/chemistry module in which different chemical mechanisms (EMEP, RACM) are implemented. The results show that the areas of maximum impact and ozone responses are notably influenced by the different transport and dispersion patterns established in the area. However, the contribution of anthropogenic sources other than road traffic is patent in both episodes. Strategies based only on decreasing road traffic emissions were not sufficient for an effective control of the air quality in the GMA. Moreover, certain discrepancies observed in the predicted trends, as a response to these control strategies posed, reflect the importance of variations in the precursors balance. The ozone production regime associated to these ozone episodes and the sensitivity of the ozone response to changes in this balance has been investigated. A chemical indicator has been used to deepen in that evaluation.     

Dicarboxylic acid concentration trends and sampling artifacts

Dicarboxylic acids associated with airborne particulate matter were measured during a summer period in Philadelphia that included multiple air pollution episodes. Samples were collected for two 10 h periods each day using a high-volume sampler with two quartz fiber filters in series, and analyzed by gas chromatography mass spectrometry (GCMS) with diazomethane derivatization. Among the dicarboxylic acids investigated, phthalic acid and adipic acid exhibited the greatest diurnal variations and the strongest linear relationship with maximum daily ozone concentration. Dicarboxylic acids and ozone concentration exhibited a poor linear relationship with organic to elemental carbon ratio. All species investigated were affected by significant sampling artifact errors at low concentrations, but sampling errors were negligible at high concentrations observed during ozone episodes.     

Assessing the meteorological conditions of a deep Italian Alpine valley system by means of a measuring campaign and simulations with two models during a summer smog episode

The typical features of a summer smog episode in the highly complex terrain of the Province of Bolzano (Northern Italy) were investigated by numerical modelling with two non-hydrostatic models, ground-based monitoring stations, and vertical profiling with two sodars and an ultra-light aircraft. High ozone concentrations are most likely to appear in situations where the local circulation in the valleys is decoupled from the synoptic flow above during anticyclonic weather regimes. Both models (MM5 and TVM) produced similar results and were able to simulate the local winds in the valleys. A comparison of the measured data to the model simulation results made an evaluation of the performance of the two models in such complex terrain possible. Both models proved to be suitable for the simulation of the meteorological conditions during such summer smog episodes in complex terrain.     

An ozone budget for the UK: using measurements from the national ozone monitoring network; measured and modelled meteorological data,and a 'big-leaf' resistance analogy model of dry deposition

Data from the UK national air-quality monitoring network are used to calculate an annual mass budget for ozone (O3) production and loss in the UK boundary layer during 1996. Monthly losses by dry deposition are quantified from 1 km x 1 km scale maps of O(3) concentration and O(3) deposition velocities based on a big-leaf resistance analogy. The quantity of O(3) deposition varies from approximately 50 Gg-O(3) month(-1) in the winter to over 200 Gg-O(3) month(-1) in the summer when vegetation is actively absorbing O(3). The net O(3) production or loss in the UK boundary layer is found by selecting days when the UK is receiving "clean" Atlantic air from the SW to NW. In these conditions, the difference in O(3) concentration observed at Mace Head and a rural site on the east coast of the UK indicates the net O(3) production or loss within the UK boundary layer. A simple box model is then used to convert the concentration difference into a mass. The final budget shows that for most of the year the UK is a net sink for O(3) (-25 to -800 Gg-O(3) month(-1)) with production only exceeding losses in the photochemically active summer months (+45 Gg-O(3) month(-1)).     

Long-term simulations of photo oxidant pollution over Portugal using the CHIMERE model

This work examines the performance of the CHIMERE photochemical model in simulating ozone and nitrogen dioxide in Portugal over a long-term summer period. The analysis focuses on comparisons against the available measurements during the 2001 summer season. The meteorological forcing of the model is given by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and the emission inventory used was obtained with a top-down methodology updated for the simulation year.Despite the coarse resolution of the meteorological data, the complex topography and coastal location of Portugal, the results obtained show that the modelling system is able to reproduce the nitrogen dioxide and ozone episodes that occurred during the simulated summer period. Mean error and correlation improve when considering the sum of photo oxidant instead of individual pollutants, indicating that a significant part of the model error is due to either the lack of representativeness of monitoring stations or to inaccuracies in the emission inventory.     

Evaluation of near surface ozone in air quality simulations forced by a regional climate model over Europe for the period 1991–2000

This study aims to evaluate near surface ozone simulated with the modelling system RegCM3/CAMx against ozone measurements from the EMEP database for the recent decade 1991–2000. The RegCM3/CAMx simulations were performed on a 50 km × 50 km grid over Europe driven either by ERA-40 reanalysis (hereafter referred as ERA simulation) or the global circulation model (GCM) ECHAM5 (hereafter referred as ECHAM simulation). A set of statistical metrics is used for the model evaluation, including temporal correlation coefficient, the ratio of the standard deviations and the bias of simulated versus observed values. Overall, a good agreement is found for both ERA and ECHAM simulations at the majority of the selected EMEP stations in all metrics throughout the year based either on monthly or daily ozone values. Based on these results, it is assessed that the modelling system RegCM3/CAMx is suitable to be used for present and future regional climate-air quality simulations with emphasis on near surface ozone. The ERA simulations reproduce more accurately the observed ozone values in comparison to ECHAM simulations because the meteorology of the ERA experiment is closer to real atmospheric conditions than the GCM based experiment. On a seasonal basis, both ERA and ECHAM simulations exhibit a seasonally dependent bias, with winter and spring ozone values being generally under-estimated by the model and summer and autumn values being slightly overestimated. This seasonally dependent bias is also evident from median and peak midday ozone values. However, the highest observed midday ozone peaks in summer, with values higher than 80 ppbv, could not be captured either by ERA or ECHAM simulations. An analysis of day-time and night-time ERA and ECHAM modelled ozone values shows that CAMx performs better during the day-time.     

A review of surface ozone in the polar regions

Surface ozone records from ten polar research stations were investigated for the dependencies of ozone on radiative processes, snow-photochemisty, and synoptic and stratospheric transport. A total of 146 annual data records for the Arctic sites Barrow, Alaska; Summit, Greenland; Alert, Canada; Zeppelinfjellet, Norway; and the Antarctic stations Halley, McMurdo, Neumayer, Sanae, Syowa, and South Pole were analyzed. Mean ozone at the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stations (excluding Summit) is ∼5 ppbv higher than in Antarctica. Statistical analysis yielded best estimates for the projected year 2005 median annual ozone mixing ratios, which for the Arctic stations were 33.5 ppbv at Alert, 28.6 ppbv at Barrow, 46.3 ppbv ppb at Summit and 33.7 ppbv at Zeppelinfjellet. For the Antarctic stations the corresponding ozone mixing ratios were 21.6 ppbv at Halley, 27.0 ppbv at McMurdo, 24.9 ppbv at Neumayer, 27.2 ppbv at Sanae, 29.4 ppbv at South Pole, and 25.8 ppbv at Syowa. At both Summit (3212 m asl) and South Pole (2830 m asl), annual mean ozone is higher than at the lower elevation and coastal stations. A trend analysis revealed that all sites in recent years have experienced low to moderate increases in surface ozone ranging from 0.02 to 0.26 ppbv yr⁻¹, albeit none of these changes were found to be statistically significant trends. A seasonal trend analysis showed above-average increases in ozone during the spring and early summer periods for both Arctic (Alert, Zeppelinfjellet) and Antarctic (McMurdo, Neumayer, South Pole) sites. In contrast, at Barrow, springtime ozone has been declining. All coastal stations experience springtime episodes with rapid depletion of ozone in the boundary layer, attributable to photochemically catalyzed ozone depletion from halogen chemistry. This effect is most obvious at Barrow, followed by Alert. Springtime depletion episodes are less pronounced at Antarctic stations. At South Pole, during the Antarctic spring and summer, photochemical ozone production yields frequent episodes with enhanced surface ozone. Other Antarctic stations show similar, though less frequent spring and summertime periods with enhanced ozone. The Antarctic data provide evidence that austral spring and summertime ozone production in Antarctica is widespread, respectively, affects all stations at least through transport events. This ozone production contributes to a several ppbv enhancement in the annual mean ozone over the Antarctic plateau; however, it is not the determining process in the Antarctic seasonal ozone cycle. Although Summit and South Pole have many similarities in their environmental conditions, this ozone production does not appear to be of equal importance at Summit. Amplitudes of diurnal, summertime ozone cycles at these polar sites are weaker than at lower latitude locations. Amplitudes of seasonal ozone changes are larger in the Southern Hemisphere (by ∼5 ppbv), most likely due to less summertime photochemical ozone loss and more transport of ozone-rich air to the Arctic during the NH spring and summer months.     

Increase in summer European ozone amounts due to climate change

The local and regional distribution of pollutants is significantly influenced by weather patterns and variability along with the spatial patterns of emissions. Therefore, climatic changes which affect local meteorological conditions can alter air quality. We use the regional air quality model CHIMERE driven by meteorological fields from regional climate change simulations to investigate changes in summer ozone mixing ratios over Europe under increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Using three 30-year simulation periods, we find that daily peak ozone amounts as well as average ozone concentrations substantially increase during summer in future climate conditions. This is mostly due to higher temperatures and reduced cloudiness and precipitation over Europe and it leads to a higher number of ozone events exceeding information and warning thresholds. Our results show a pronounced regional variability, with the largest effects of climate change on ozone concentrations occurring over England, Belgium, Germany and France. The temperature-driven increase in biogenic emissions appears to enhance the ozone production and isoprene was identified as the most important chemical factor in the ozone sensitivity. We also find that summer ozone levels in future climate projections are similar to those found during the exceptionally warm and dry European summer of 2003. Our simulations suggest that in future climate conditions summer ozone might pose a much more serious threat to human health, agriculture and natural ecosystems in Europe, so that the effects of climate trends on pollutant amounts should be considered in future emission control measures.     

Long-term trends of primary and secondary pollutant concentrations in Switzerland and their response to emission controls and economic changes

A detrending technique is developed for short-term and yearly variations in order to identify long-term trends in primary and secondary pollutants. In this approach, seasonal and weekly variations are removed by using a mean year; the residual meteorological short-term variation is removed by using a multiple linear regression model. This methodology is employed to detrend ozone (O₃), NO_x, VOC and CO concentrations in Switzerland. We show that primary pollutants (NO_x,VOC and CO) at urban and sub-urban stations show a downward trend over the last decade which correlates well with the reductions in the estimated Swiss emissions. In spite of these large decreases achieved in precursor emissions, summer peak ozone concentrations do not show any statistically significant trend over the last decade. Application of this method to ozone concentrations measured at the Jungfraujoch (3580 m a.s.l.) also shows no trend over the last 10 years. Detrended summer ozone correlates well with European Union gross national product and industrial production growth rates. These results suggest that if substantial reductions in summer peak ozone in Switzerland are desired, emissions reduction strategies must be part of control program involving a much larger region.     

Measures of ozone concentrations using passive sampling in forests of South Western Europe

Ambient ozone concentrations were measured with passive samplers in the framework of the EU and UN/ECE Level II forest monitoring programme. Data from France, Italy, Luxembourg, Spain and Switzerland are reported for 2000-2002, covering the period from April to September. The number of plots increased from 67 in 2000 to 83 in 2002. The year 2001 experienced the highest ozone concentrations, reflecting more stable summer meteorological conditions. Average 6-month ozone concentrations above 45 ppb were measured this year in 40.3% of the plots, in contrast with the less than 21% measured in the other 2 years. Gradients of increasing ozone levels were observed from North to South and with altitude. Comments are made on the regional trends and on the time frame of the higher ozone episodes. Also, some recommendations enabling a better comparison between plots are provided.     

Modelling local and synoptic scale influences on ozone concentrations in a topographically complex region of Southern Italy

A modelling study with the on-line coupled Eulerian chemical-weather model WRF/Chem for the Southern Italian region around Cosenza (Calabria) was conducted to identify the influences of synoptic scale meteorology, local scale wind systems and local emissions on ozone concentrations in this orographically complex region. Four periods of 5–7 days were chosen, one from each season, which had wind pattern characteristics representative of typical local climatological conditions, in order to study the local versus non-local impacts on ozone transport and formation. To account for the complex terrain, the horizontal resolution of the smallest modelling domain was 3 km. Model results were compared with measurements to demonstrate the capability of the model to reproduce ozone concentrations in the region. The comparison was favourable with a mean bias of ?1.1 ppb. The importance of local emissions on ozone formation and destruction was identified with the use of three different emission scenarios. Generally the influence of regional emissions on the average ozone concentration was small. However during periods when mountain-sea wind systems were well developed and synoptic scale winds were weak, the influence of local emissions from the urban area was at its greatest. The maximum influence of local emissions on ozone concentrations was 18 ppb.     

Ozone Measurements in South Carolina Using Passive Samplers

Abstract

Passive samplers with two different collection substrates were used to obtain an average ozone concentration for 1 month during the summer of 2002 for each South Carolina county. One sampler contained a filter coated with indigo carmine, whose color fades when exposed to ozone. The fading was measured by reflectance spectroscopy. The other sampler contained filters that were coated with nitrite, which is oxidized to nitrate when exposed to ozone. The nitrate was measured by ion chromatography.

Calibration curves were developed for the two methods by comparing color fading from indigo carmine and nitrate ion concentration from the nitrite filter with ambient ozone concentration measured by a co-located reference continuous UV ozone analyzer. These curves were used to calculate integrated ozone concentrations for samplers distributed across South Carolina.

Using the indigo carmine method, the average ozone concentrations ranged from 21 to 64 ppb (average = 46 ± 7.9 ppb, n = 58) across the 46 counties in the state during one summer month of 2002. Concentrations for the same time period from the nitrite-coated filters ranged from 23 to 62 ppb (average = 41 ± 8.1 ppb, n = 58). Also for the same time period, the 23 continuous UV photometric ozone monitors operated by the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control at sites within 10 miles of some of the passive monitors showed ozone concentrations ranging from 28 to 50 ppb (average = 39 ± 6.3 ppb, n = 22).