天津市耕地数量动态变化及保护对策研究

根据土地调查和统计资料,分析了天津市自1949年以来耕地数量动态变化及其驱动机制,并在此基础上,提出了抑制耕地流失和促进耕地数量增加的相关对策。研究表明,1949年以来,天津市耕地数量经历了波动变化和持续缓慢减少两大阶段,耕地数量总体上缓慢减少;人口增长、经济发展、城市化、相关政策、比较经济利益、环境变化和灾害等因子对耕地数量变化具有明显的驱动作用;耕地保护需要进行多方面地不懈努力。     

Deforestation and Forest Management in Southern Ethiopia: Investigations in the Chencha and Arbaminch Areas

Long-term human impacts are considered to be the prime cause of unsustainable forest exploitation in Ethiopia. Yet there exist well-established systems and a wealth of local experience in maintaining and managing forests. This study explores the trends and driving forces of deforestation plus traditional practices regarding sustainable forest use and management in the Chencha and Arbaminch areas, Southern Ethiopia. Satellite image analysis (images from 1972, 1984 and 2006) combined with field surveys were used to detect and map changes in forest cover. Household interviews and group discussions with experienced and knowledgeable persons were also employed. The results show a 23 % decline in forest cover between 1972 and 2006 with the most significant change from 1986 to 2006. Change was greatest in the lowlands and remarkable episodic forest changes also occurred, suggesting nonlinear spatial and temporal forest cover dynamics. According to farmers, the main driver of deforestation is agricultural land expansion in response to local population increases and a decline in agricultural production. Growing local and regional fuel wood demand is another chief cause. Despite these issues, remarkable relicts of natural forests remain and trees on farmland, around homesteads and on fields in every village are basic elements of farm activities and social systems. This demonstrates the effect of cumulative traditional knowledge and long-term local experience with forest management and preservation. Therefore, these practices should be promoted and advanced through the integration of local knowledge and forest management practices in the design and implementation of sustainable environmental planning and management.     

ArcGIS技术在县域退耕还林决策分析中的运用——以江西省于都县为例

运用ArcGIS技术,结合江西省于都县耕地的数量与空间分布状况、坡度、人口等因素对该县退耕还林工作进行辅助决策分析,深入分析到乡镇以确定该县退耕还林区和退耕还林的实施措施,为于都县的退耕还林决策工作提供科学参考。     

Modeling the Driving Forces of the Land Use and Land Cover Changes Along the Upper Yangtze River of China

Induced by high population density, rapid but uneven economic growth, and historic resource exploitation, China’s upper Yangtze basin has witnessed remarkable changes in land use and cover, which have resulted in severe environmental consequences, such as flooding, soil erosion, and habitat loss. This article examines the causes of land use and land cover change (LUCC) along the Jinsha River, one primary section of the upper Yangtze, aiming to better understand the human impact on the dynamic LUCC process and to support necessary policy actions for more sustainable land use and environmental protection. Using a repeated cross-sectional dataset covering 31 counties over four time periods from 1975 to 2000, we develop a fractional logit model to empirically determine the effects of socioeconomic and institutional factors on changes for cropland, forestland, and grassland. It is shown that population expansion, food self-sufficiency, and better market access drove cropland expansion, while industrial development contributed significantly to the increase of forestland and the decrease of other land uses. Similarly, stable tenure had a positive effect on forest protection. Moreover, past land use decisions were less significantly influenced by distorted market signals. We believe that these and other findings carry important policy implications.     

Coupling a settlement growth model with an agro-economic land allocation model for securing ecosystem services provision

Mountain landscapes are undergoing rapid land-use changes. Settlement expansion, the intensification of agricultural land-use practices, and farmland abandonment result in a decline of natural and semi-natural habitats and the related ecosystem services (ES). In this context, spatial planning has emerged as a key instrument for the management of ES provision. To better understand trade-offs and interactions between settlement growth and ES provision in a spatially explicit manner, we present a new modeling framework coupling an agent-based, agro-economic optimization model and a cellular-automata-based settlement growth model. The framework is applied in an inner alpine valley in the Valais, Switzerland, which experienced rapid settlement growth in recent years. Results demonstrate how the model framework allows support of local planning processes. Particularly cooperation among municipalities and an explicit consideration of ES can inform spatially explicit ES trade-off decisions under increasing demand for land. We conclude that better informed spatial planning processes support ES provision.     

Spatially Varying Determinants of Farmland Conversion Across Qiantang Watershed, China

This paper employed geographically weighted regression (GWR) to characterize the determinants of farmland conversion at administrative scale between 1994 and 2003 across Qiantang watershed, China. Six determinants were identified: total area of forest, distance to highway, distance to second road, distance to river, population, and gross domestic product. Relationships between these identified determinants and farmland conversion showed great spatial non-stationarity, since their character, nature, and strength varied significantly across space. Typically, for cities whose development was heavily relied on road infrastructure development, the impacts of “distance to second road” and “distance to river” was negative. However, in mountainous areas, the restriction of terrain factors led to positive impacts from these two variables. For areas undergoing rapid socio-economic development, farmland conversion was accelerated by population growth and economic development. However, for more urbanized regions, a slow-down rate of farmland conversion would be expected. Our study highlighted that the problem of spatial non-stationarity should be addressed when qualifying the determinants of farmland conversion. Linking our results within the context of farmland protection, we argue that implementing local-specific land management practices, instead of the current one-size-fits-all framework, is the key for the success of farmland protection in China.     

Exploring changes in Ecuadorian land use for food production and their effects on natural resources

A model is used for the dynamic and spatially explicit exploration of near future agricultural land-use changes. In a case study for Ecuador, different plausible scenarios are formulated, taking into account possible developments in national food demand until the year 2010. The protection of nature parks and restrictions due to land degradation are evaluated with respect to their possible spatial impacts on the land-use change dynamics within the country. Under the assumptions of the demand scenarios, agricultural land-use expands significantly, resulting in more use of land in existing agricultural areas and frontier-type expansion into relatively undisturbed natural areas. The patterns of change depend on the increase in demand, competition between land-use types, changes in driving factors of land use, and the area and characteristics of land that is excluded from agricultural use. The modelled land-use dynamics are related to their possible impacts on the natural resource base, specifically soil fertility. The results indicate potential negative effects of land-use changes on the soil nutrient balance and biodiversity. It is argued that spatial and temporal quantification of land-use dynamics at the landscape level can support research and policies aimed at understanding the driving factors of land-use change and the behaviour of complex agro-ecosystems under changing conditions at different scales. In this way, issues dealing with sustainable food production and the management of the natural resource base can be addressed in a more integrated and quantitative manner.     

Mapping Ecosystem Services for Land Use Planning,the Case of Central Kalimantan

Indonesia is subject to rapid land use change. One of the main causes for the conversion of land is the rapid expansion of the oil palm sector. Land use change involves a progressive loss of forest cover, with major impacts on biodiversity and global CO₂ emissions. Ecosystem services have been proposed as a concept that would facilitate the identification of sustainable land management options, however, the scale of land conversion and its spatial diversity pose particular challenges in Indonesia. The objective of this paper is to analyze how ecosystem services can be mapped at the provincial scale, focusing on Central Kalimantan, and to examine how ecosystem services maps can be used for a land use planning. Central Kalimantan is subject to rapid deforestation including the loss of peatland forests and the provincial still lacks a comprehensive land use plan. We examine how seven key ecosystem services can be mapped and modeled at the provincial scale, using a variety of models, and how large scale ecosystem services maps can support the identification of options for sustainable expansion of palm oil production.     

岷江流域三江交汇区景观格局变化研究

本文以生态景观理论为基础,地理信息与遥感技术为支撑,对岷江流域三江交汇区三期遥感数据,1990年TM、2002年TM、2014年ETM+数据进行图像分类、景观指数提取、空间分析,同时采用面积转移矩阵统计各景观面积的转移情况,分析景观格局变化的影响因素,研究结果表明:(1)1990—2014年三江交汇区景观类型面积排序为:农田林地草地水域居民地裸地。优势景观为耕地,所占比例由72.83%下降到63.32%,面积减少了3480hm2。草地所占比例呈现波动变化,总体增加了2.81%。林地比例由15.98%上升到18.79%,增加了700hm2。居民地所占比例升高了4.1%;(2)1990年研究区内草地景观易受到外部干扰,其分布形状复杂。林地景观整体聚合度较高同时具有较低的异质性,分布通透性好、规模连续。农田分布较为分散且斑块较小。2002年农田斑块分布复杂化,同时具有聚集度高的特点。2014年研究区内农田优势地位下降。此时农田分布比较破碎并且呈现集中的态势。草地分布规模性较好、分布较为完整,但是内部存在一定的破碎性;(3)三江交汇区景观类型相互转化的主要原因:一是,退耕还林、还草政策实施,海拔超过500m的丘陵山地区域,建立生态保护区。二是,成绵乐铁路和高速路网的完善,使得三江交汇区的土地类型向建设用地转化加快,主要集中在乐山市中区和周围城镇。     

What Drives Accelerated Land Cover Change in Central Argentina? Synergistic Consequences of Climatic,Socioeconomic, and Technological Factors

Synergistic combinations of climatic and land use changes have the potential to produce the most dramatic impacts on land cover. Although this is widely accepted, empirical examples, particularly involving deforestation in Latin America, are still very few. The geographic extent and causes of deforestation in subtropical seasonally dry forests of the world have received very little attention. This is especially true for the Chaco forests in South America, which are being lost at an alarming rate, sometimes higher than those reported for tropical forests. On this basis, the aims of this study were to analyze the changes in land cover that have occurred during the last three decades of the 20th century in the Chaco forests of central Argentina, and to explain the factors that have driven those changes. Results show major land cover changes. Approximately 80% of the area that was originally undisturbed forest is now occupied by crops, pastures, and secondary scrub. The main proximate cause of deforestation has been agricultural expansion, soybean cultivation in particular. This appears as the result of the synergistic convergence of climatic, technological, and socioeconomic factors, supporting the hypothesis of a multiple-factor explanation for forest loss, while providing one of the very few existing analyses of changes in subtropical forests of the world.     

不同城市化速度地区建设用地演变驱动力比较研究

以深圳和武汉为例,选择与建设用地相关性大的10项社会经济指标,采用简单的逐步回归方法对城市化速度存在较大差异的2个城市建设用地演变驱动力进行了比较分析,对2个城市驱动力的共性和差异给出了合理解释,可增强对城市化过程中建设用地演变机理的动态理解,为抑制建设用地的过快增长提供参考。     

基于元素流分析的长江经济带总磷污染减量化研究——以湖北为例

本文运用元素流分析方法,解析了长江经济带社会经济系统磷代谢的主要过程,构建了磷代谢分析框架及磷流核算模型,并以湖北为例,审视了其磷代谢过程及规律,定量识别了水体磷负荷的主要来源,力图提出减少长江经济带总磷污染的相关建议与对策。结果表明:(1)湖北长江经济带磷代谢系统整体结构不协调,呈现典型的单向型;(2)随着矿物磷—植物磷—动物磷的转换,重要工业化生产性子系统(磷化工、农业种植、规模养殖)磷的物质生产率逐渐退化,污染排放率、废物累积率、养分循环率则次第升高,城镇居民对总磷污染的贡献度要远超农村居民;(3)规模养殖、农业种植、磷化工、城镇居民生活是湖北长江经济带水体总磷污染的主要来源。     

广东省城镇化与生态环境耦合协调的空间特征及影响因素研究

为研究广东省快速城镇化与生态环境系统的相互影响关系,本文应用耦合协调度模型、地理探测器等方法对1995年、2005年、2016年广东省城镇化与生态环境耦合协调度及影响因素进行了分析。研究表明:①以广东省为研究区,1995—2016年广东省城镇化与生态环境耦合协调度呈持续上升趋势,整体呈S型曲线,经历了严重失调—中度协调—优质协调和城镇化滞后—相对平衡—生态环境滞后的过程。②以21个地级市为研究区,1995—2016年各地级市城镇化与生态环境耦合协调度持续提高,属优质和良好协调型的区域以珠海、深圳为核心逐步向外围扩展,表现出明显的核心—边缘特征。③生态环保政策、土地开发强度是不同时期影响21个地级市城市化与生态环境耦合协调度的共性因素。同时,2005年以前,产业结构及人口和GDP的快速增长是主要的影响因素;2005年以后,人口高度集聚、土地快速开发、科技和技术创新等因素则发挥着更重要的作用。     

Georelational Analysis of Soil Type, Soil Salt Content, Landform, and Land Use in the Yellow River Delta, China

The Yellow River Delta, one of China’s three major river deltas, is becoming a major region for the development of agriculture and fisheries. Protecting the delicate ecology of newly formed aquatic systems as well as the evolution of soils, natural vegetation, and fauna on older upland environments in the delta is a priority in planning for the wise use of the delta’s resources for future agricultural development. In this article, we use a Geographic Information System (GIS) to analyze relationships between land-use/land-cover characteristics in the Dongying municipality, one of the most intensely developed areas of the delta, and spatial variations in soil salinity and landforms. This analysis reveals that soil salt content decreases from regionally high values in isolated depressions to relatively moderate values in embanked former back swamps, with the lowest values occurring in abandoned river courses. Comparing the present land use on this soil salinity–landform pattern shows that it is basically at odds with general concepts of land suitability for agricultural utilization of saline soils. Crop-based agriculture in the region is probably overdeveloped, whereas more appropriate agricultural development, like cattle and forest production, is underrepresented. Future development should focus on converting farmland in embanked former back swamps and abandoned river courses into grasslands and forests. Crop-based agriculture (up to 151,000 ha) could be planned at the low-salinity terrace uplands and flood plains. The article provides guidelines for decision-makers regarding agricultural land use and wetland protection in the Yellow River Delta.     

武汉市新洲区耕地数量变化驱动机制分析

依据武汉市新洲区1996—2004年耕地面积和社会经济统计数据,运用主成分分析和回归分析方法分析了该区耕地面积变化的驱动因素。结果表明,近年来经济发展、人口增长、社会进步、畜牧业及工业发展是新洲区耕地面积减少的主要驱动因素。     

Impacts of land use conversion on bankfull discharge and mass wasting

Mass wasting and channel incision are widespread in the Nemadji River watershed of eastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. While much of this is a natural response to glacial rebound, sediment coring and tree ring data suggest that land use has also influenced these erosional processes. We characterized land use, inventoried mass wasting, surveyed stream channels and collected discharge data along segments of five streams in the Nemadji River watershed. Due to natural relief in this region, wetlands and agricultural lands are concentrated in the flatter terrain of the uplands of the Nemadji watershed, while forestland (coniferous or deciduous) is concentrated in the deeply incised (50-200% slope) stream valleys. Bankfull discharge was higher where forests had been converted from coniferous to deciduous forests and where there were fewer wetlands. Mass wasting increased exponentially with bankfull flows. While mass wasting was not correlated with forest type conversion and agricultural land use, it was negatively dependent upon wetland extent in headwater areas. Interactions between the spatial distribution of land use and terrain obfuscate any clear cause-and-effect relationships between land use, hydrology and fluvial processes.     

Temporal and Spatial Variability of Water Supply Stress in the Haihe River Basin,Northern China1

Ji, Yuhe, Liding Chen, and Ranhao Sun, 2012. Temporal and Spatial Variability of Water Supply Stress in the Haihe River Basin, Northern China. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(5): 999‐1007. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00671.x Abstract: Water resources are becoming increasingly stressed under the influence of climate change and population growth in the Haihe River Basin, Northern China. Assessing the temporal and spatial variability of water supply stress is urgently needed to mitigate water crisis caused by water resource reallocation. Water supply and use data were compiled for the time period of 1998‐2003 in this synthesis study. The Water Supply Stress Index (WSSI) as defined as Water Demand/Water Supply was used to quantitate whether water supply could meet the demand of human activities across the study region. We found a large spatial gradient of water supply stress in the study region, being much higher in the eastern subbasins (ranging from 2.56 to 4.31) than the west subbasins (ranging from 0.56 to 1.92). The eastern plain region not only suffered more serious water supply stress but also had a much higher interannual variability than the western hilly region. The uneven spatial distribution of water supply stress might result from the distribution of land use, population, and climate. Future climate change and rapid economic development are likely to aggravate the existing water crisis in the study region.     

Socio-economic driving forces of land-use change in Kunshan, the Yangtze River Delta economic area of China

This paper analyzes characteristics, major driving forces and alternative management measures of land-use change in Kunshan, Jiangsu province, China. The study used remote sensing (RS) maps and socio-economic data. Based on RS-derived maps, two change matrices were constructed for detecting land-use change between 1987 and 1994, and between 1994 and 2000 through pixel-to-pixel comparisons. The outcomes indicated that paddy fields, dryland, and forested land moderately decreased by 8.2%, 29% and 2.6% from 1987 to 1994, and by 4.1%, 7.6% and 8% from 1994 to 2000, respectively. In contrast, the following increased greatly from 1987 to 1994: artificial ponds by 48%, urban settlements by 87.6%, rural settlements by 41.1%, and construction land by 511.8%. From 1994 to 2000, these land covers increased by 3.6%, 28.1%, 23.4% and 47.1%, respectively. For the whole area, fragmentation of land cover was very significant. In addition, socio-economic data were used to analyze major driving forces triggering land-use change through bivariate analysis. The results indicated that industrialization, urbanization, population growth, and China's economic reform measures are four major driving forces contributing to land-use change in Kunshan. Finally, we introduced some possible management measures such as urban growth boundary (UGB) and incentive-based policies. We pointed out that, given the rapidity of the observed changes, it is critical that additional studies be undertaken to evaluate these suggested policies, focusing on what their effects might be in this region, and how these might be implemented.     

Sustainable local land use policy: rhetoric and reality

Abstract

This study examined trends in population redistribution and residential land use changes in northeast Scotland during 1988 to 2003. We utilised a geographical information system (GIS) tool to bring together data from interrelated sources and to analyse population settlement and land use changes at detailed spatial scale. This analysis revealed that substantial land conversion had taken place in the region; particularly conversion of agricultural lands to built-up and residential areas. It also drew attention to policy conflicts, discrepancies between policy rhetoric and policy implementations. More specifically, it was shown that substantial farm land conversion had taken place in suburban areas and rural Aberdeenshire with little change in the size of derelict land in Aberdeen City. The reason given for this was that it was costly to rehabilitate and reuse derelict lands and this conflicted with the objective of providing affordable housing in the City region. The implication of this study is that if the declared policy objectives of integrated and sustainable land use and transport policies are to be achieved, then local authorities may need to cooperate to minimise conflicts between economic and environmental objectives.     

Observation and simulation of net primary productivity in Qilian Mountain, western China

We modeled net primary productivity (NPP) at high spatial resolution using an advanced spaceborne thermal emission and reflection radiometer (ASTER) image of a Qilian Mountain study area using the boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS). Two key driving variables of the model, leaf area index (LAI) and land cover type, were derived from ASTER and moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. Other spatially explicit inputs included daily meteorological data (radiation, precipitation, temperature, humidity), available soil water holding capacity (AWC), and forest biomass. NPP was estimated for coniferous forests and other land cover types in the study area. The result showed that NPP of coniferous forests in the study area was about 4.4 tCha(-1)y(-1). The correlation coefficient between the modeled NPP and ground measurements was 0.84, with a mean relative error of about 13.9%.