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1.
Herein, we studied the occurrence and profiles of thirteen PBDE congeners in 30 river sediment samples from Shanghai, China. The concentrations of Σ13PBDEs ranged from 110 to 13,071 pg g ?1 dw, with an average value of 2,841 pg g ?1 dw. BDE-209 was the predominant congener accounting for more than 65 % of total PBDEs, demonstrating that the major source of PBDEs in sediment samples was associated with the prevalent use of technical deca-BDE products. Moreover, low brominated BDEs in sediments also came from the degradation of higher brominated BDEs. In addition, taking into consideration of dietary exposure, PBDEs in serum samples collected from the locals were also detected with range of 419–26,744 pg g?1 (average 5,561 pg g ?1), which suggested a relatively low burden of PBDEs contamination to human body compared with the condition in other place. And in serum, low brominated compounds constituted the majority of total PBDE congeners.  相似文献   

2.
为调查电子垃圾回收活动对当地水生生物造成的多溴联苯醚(PBDEs)污染,测定了广东某电子垃圾回收地附近水库中水生生物样品(水蛇、鱼类、草虾和田螺)和对照区样品(鲮鱼)中18种PBDEs含量,通过对样品氮同位素的测定,探讨了PBDEs在该地淡水食物链上的生物富集特征.研究结果显示,∑PBDEs(总PBDEs含量)在水蛇、鱼类、草虾和田螺中分别为39.6~186、1.82~75.7、4.60~17.1和7.26~17.0μg·g-1(脂重),比华南地区鱼体中∑PBDEs的平均含量高3个数量级,表明电子垃圾回收活动已对当地水生生物造成了PBDEs的严重污染.除BDE66、BDE99、BDE153、BDE183和BDE209外,其他13种PBDE单体在食物链上均存在着生物放大效应,但生物放大能力(B值)与正辛醇-水分配系数logKOW相关性不明显,可能是由于某些PBDE单体在生物体内存在代谢作用.以上结果表明,由电子垃圾回收活动导致的PBDEs污染存在较大的生态风险,应该引起高度关注.  相似文献   

3.
Xu  Jing  Qian  Wangyang  Li  Juying  Zhang  Xiaofei  He  Jian  Kong  Deyang 《Environmental geochemistry and health》2019,41(5):2315-2327

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are a class of organic pollutants. They are used as flame retardants that caused worldwide environmental concern. This study investigated the occurrence of PBDEs in soils and dusts from three plastic manufacture plants and surrounding areas in Eastern China. A total of 13 PBDE congeners were detected using gas chromatography-mass spectrometer (electron impact ionization). The total concentrations of PBDEs range from 2.21 to 558, 19.7–4916, and 8.70–18,451 ng/g dry weight in the soils of three sampling areas, with mean of 1004 ng/g d w; in dusts, the concentrations range from 7240 to 10,469, 684–4482, and 193–3989 ng/g d w, with an overall mean of 3619 ng/g d w. The most abundant congener is the BDE-209, followed by BDE-153 and BDE-85. This indicates that the brominated flame retardant added in the plastic manufacture is mainly the commodity decabromodiphenyl ether. In comparison with other polluted areas around the world, the PBDE concentrations in the soils of the plastic manufacture plants are similar to those in soils of waste plastic disposal areas and PBDEs production sites, but orders of magnitude higher than those in agricultural soils, mountain soils and rural soils. Daily exposure was estimated using the average concentrations of the pollution sites. The hazard quotient shows that the PBDEs pose considerable human health risks, especially to children, to which attention should be paid.

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4.
Contamination profiles of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) were determined in six fish species from three selected regions along coastal waters off Savannah, GA, USA. Concentrations of PCBs were predominant (12–493 ng g?1 lw) followed by PBDEs (10–337 ng g?1 lw), OCPs such as DDTs (2.7–153 ng g?1 lw), chlordanes (3.8–34 ng g?1 lw), cyclodienes (<0.1–35 ng g?1 lw), mirex (<0.1–8.6 ng g?1 lw), γ-hexachlorocyclohexane (<0.1–1.4 ng g?1 lw), and hexachlorobenzene (<0.1–0.68 ng g?1 lw). The results indicated no region-specific difference in the contaminants however inter-species as well as intra-species differences were evident. Comparison of DDTs, PCBs, and PBDEs profiles in fish with those from other countries revealed that fish from coastal waters off Savannah contained relatively less concentrations of PCBs and chlorinated pesticides, while PBDE concentrations were comparable or even higher than fish samples from other regions. Polychlorinated biphenyl congeners and chlorinated pesticide tempoal trend data exhibited no increase of contamination levels. The levels of PCBs and chlorinated pesticides in fish from Savannah coastal waters were below the Food and Drug Administrations (FDA) established limits for human consumption.  相似文献   

5.
Three important groups of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), organic chlorinated pesticides (OCPs) and phthalate esters (PAEs), were produced by various human activities and entered the water body. In this study, the pollution profiles of three species including 16 PAHs, 20 OCPs and 15 PAEs in water along the Beijiang River, China were investigated. The concentrations of Σ16PAHs in the dissolved and particulate phases were obtained as 69–1.5 × 102 ng L?1 and 2.3 × 103–8.6 × 104 ng g?1, respectively. The levels of Σ20OCPs were 23–66 ng L?1 (dissolved phase) and 19–1.7 × 103 ng g?1 (particulate phase). Nevertheless, higher levels of PAEs were found both in the dissolved and particulate phases due to abuse use of plastic products. Furthermore, non-cancer and cancer risks caused by these SVOCs through the ingestion absorption and dermal absorption were also assessed. There was no non-cancer risk existed through two kinds of exposure of them at current levels, whereas certain cancer risk existed through dermal absorption of PAHs in the particulate phase in some sampling sites. The results will show scientific insights into the evaluation of the status of combined pollution in river basins, and the determination of strategies for incident control and pollutant remediation.  相似文献   

6.
● Heavy metals and organic toxins may persist in legacy sites for a long time. ● Contaminants pose potential harms to the nearby community (HI > 1). ● PCDD/Fs had the risk of endocrine disruption and reproductive risk. ● Further intervention is needed to reduce pollution and related risks. Informal electronic-waste (e-waste) recycling sites pose substantial health risks to surrounding environments and populations, yet they are not properly regulated. In this study, the soil levels of copper, lead, cadmium, eight polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and 18 polychlorinated dibenzo-dioxins/furans (PCDD/Fs) were measured at two e-waste recycling sites in South China between 2014 and 2019. Both sites have been abandoned for natural restoration. Our results indicate that the mean Cd and PCDD/F levels at Site A in 2019 were higher than those recommended by current safety guidelines. Meanwhile, the highest exposure among children was 1.36 × 10−2 mg/(kg·d) for Cu, followed by 5.05 × 10−3 mg/(kg·d) for Pb, 9.71 ng/(kg·d) for PBDEs, and 6.82 ng TEQ/(kg·d) for PCDD/Fs. Children were at elevated risk for health problem posed by Pb and Cu exposure at both sites (hazard quotient > 1) and by PCDD/Fs at Site A. Further risk assessment was conducted on the target organs and endpoints of heavy metals and PCDD/Fs. The hazard index (HI) for the target organ mixed-risk of heavy metals was high (HI = 1.27), as was that of PCDD/Fs (HI = 1.66), which can disrupt endocrine function and pose a risk of reproductive toxicity in children. Owing to incomplete cleaning, contaminants persist in soils over long periods and may harm nearby environments and communities. Our study demonstrates that heavy metal, PBDE, and PCDD/F contamination have not yet been remediated, and intervention is needed to reduce pollution and associated risks in areas affected by e-waste.  相似文献   

7.
Xijiang River is an important drinking water source in Guangxi Province, China. Along the Xijiang River and surrounding tributary, the pollution profile of three important groups of semi-volatile organic compounds, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and phthalate esters (PAEs), was analyzed. Relatively low levels of PAHs (64–3.7 × 102 ng L?1) and OCPs (16–70 ng L?1), but high levels of PAEs (7.9 × 102–6.8 × 103 ng L?1) occurred in the water. Comparatively, low levels of OCPs (39–1.8 × 102 ng g?1) and PAEs (21–81 ng g?1), but high levels of PAHs (41–1.1 × 103 ng g?1) were found in sediment. Principal component analyses for source identification indicated petroleum-derived residues or coal and biomass combustion, and vehicular emission was the main sources for PAHs. The OCPs sources of each category were almost independent, whereas the new input of HCHs and p,p′-DDTs probably existed in some areas. PAEs were mainly originated from personal care products of urban sewage, plastic and other industrial sources. Ecological risk through the risk quotient analysis indicated a small or significant potential adverse effect on fish, daphnia and green algae. Nevertheless, the integrated risk of all pollutants should be taken into account in future study.  相似文献   

8.
The concentrations of 16 polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE) congeners in six short sediment cores from the Clyde Estuary were determined by gas-chromatography mass-spectrometry. Total PBDE concentrations ranged from 1 to 2,645 μg/kg and the average concentration was 287 μg/kg. BDE-209 was the main congener and varied from 1 to 2,337 μg/kg. Elevated total PBDE concentrations were observed close to the sediment surface in the uppermost 10 cm of four of the six sediment cores. Comparison of the down core PBDE profiles revealed that the increase was driven by the accumulation of deca-BDE. Although the deca-BDE mix was dominant, the presence of lower molecular weight congeners BDE-47, BDE-99, BDE-183 and BDE-153 at most sediment intervals suggested additional sources of penta-BDE and octa-BDE pollution. Changing PBDE source input was the major factor in influencing the proportion of nona-brominated congeners, although other explanations such as post burial photo-debromination of BDE-209 cannot be entirely discounted. A clear cascading to lower hepta-, hexa-, and penta-homologues was not found. The increase in total PBDE concentrations and particularly the deca-BDE may possibly be ascribed to the use and subsequent disposal of electrical appliances such as televisions and computers. In the Clyde sediments, the proportion of nona-brominated congeners was higher than that reported for commercial mixtures. This might be due to changing sources of PBDEs or post burial photo-debromination of BDE-209.  相似文献   

9.
We investigated the occurrence of halogenated flame retardants (HFRs) including polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), six novel brominated flame retardants (NBFRs) and dechlorane plus in air and soils on the eastern slope of Mt. Gongga on the eastern Tibetan Plateau. We detected all of the NBFR except bis(2-ethylhexyl)-tetrabromophthalate and pentabromoethyl benzene. NBFRs constituted the most prevalent group. BDE-28 and BDE-47 dominated among the PBDE congeners. Decabromodiphenyl ethane was detected at relatively high levels up to 171 pg/m3 and 1450 pg/g dry weight in air and soils, respectively; however, it appeared to be easily degraded in the environment. A general decreasing trend was observed among the HFR concentrations with increasing altitude, and this was due to the prominent contribution of source emissions over possible influence of environmental conditions. This study also suggests that HFRs are supplied to forest soils mainly in the form of precipitation and retained in the O horizon layers.  相似文献   

10.
Because detrimental effects of exposure to lead (Pb) on human health have been observed, we previously investigated concentrations of Pb in water supplies and blood of adult residents of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The objectives of the present study were to: (1) examine seasonal rates of deposition of Pb in dust in several areas of Riyadh city, (2) measure concentrations of Pb in both outdoor and indoor dust, (3) compare concentrations of Pb in dust in Riyadh with those reported for other cities, and (4) quantify Pb in blood of children living in Riyadh. Mean, monthly deposition of PB in outdoor dust was 4.7 × 101 ± 3.6 tons km?2, with a mean Pb concentration of 2.4 × 102 ± 4.4 × 101 μg/g. Mean, monthly deposition of Pb in indoor dust was 2.7 ± 0.70 tons km?2, with a mean concentration of 2.9 × 101 ± 1.5 × 101 μg Pb/g. There was a significant (P < 0.01) correlation between concentrations of Pb in outdoor and indoor dust. There was no correlation between concentrations of Pb in indoor dust and that in blood of children of Riyadh, whereas there was a weakly significant (P < 0.05) correlation between concentrations of Pb in outdoor dust and that in blood of children. The mean (±SD) concentration of Pb in blood of children in Riyadh was 5.2 ± 1.7, with a range of 1.7–1.6 × 101 μg/dl. Concentrations of Pb in blood of 17.8 % of children in Riyadh were greater than 10 μg/dl, which is the CDC’s level of concern.  相似文献   

11.
Levels of polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE) flame retardants have been increasing in humans and the environment for the past few decades. Human levels are markedly higher in the US than Europe. Although food appears to be a significant route of intake, food PBDE levels are not substantially higher in the US than Europe. House and office dust appear to be major routes of exposure with air believed to usually provide a lesser route of intake. Because there are very few measurements of airborne PBDE that have been performed in relevant microenvironments in the US, increased efforts to assess airborne PBDE in the US as sources of exposure are needed. This study reports, for the first time from a Southwestern US city in Texas, the results of measurements of airborne PBDE in multiple locations, two outdoor and six indoor (residential and office) from active air sampling with collection of a combination of both vapor- and particulate-phase PBDE. Higher PBDE levels were measured in indoor than outdoor air, which confirms previous findings. Of 11 measured congeners including BDE 209, total PBDE levels in two outdoor air samples were 112 and 125 pg m?3 and the indoor air levels ranged from 175 to 1232 pg m?3 with a median of 572 pg m?3. These findings suggest that sources of air contamination with PBDE may be similar in Texas as elsewhere in North America. However, more sampling is required to (1) better determine if this is the case and (2) attempt to characterize potential sources of PBDE contamination in both indoor and outdoor air by analysis of congener patterns.  相似文献   

12.
A comprehensive investigation was conducted in order to assess the levels of PAHs, their input prediction and potential risks to bacterial abundance and human health along Gujarat coastline. A total of 40 sediment samples were collected at quarterly intervals within a year from two contaminated sites—Alang-Sosiya Shipbreaking Yard (ASSBRY) and Navlakhi Port (NAV), situated at Gulf of Khambhat and Gulf of Kutch, respectively. The concentration of ΣPAHs ranged from 408.00 to 54240.45 ng g?1 dw, indicating heavy pollution of PAHs at both the contaminated sites. Furthermore, isomeric ratios and principal component analysis have revealed that inputs of PAHs at both contaminated sites were mixed-pyrogenic and petrogenic. Pearson co-relation test and regression analysis have disclosed Nap, Acel and Phe as major predictors for bacterial abundance at both contaminated sites. Significantly, cancer risk assessment of the PAHs has been exercised based on incremental lifetime cancer risks. Overall, index of cancer risk of PAHs for ASSBRY and NAV ranged from 4.11 × 10?6–2.11 × 10?5 and 9.08 × 10?6–4.50 × 10?3 indicating higher cancer risk at NAV compared to ASSBRY. The present findings provide baseline information that may help in developing advanced bioremediation and bioleaching strategies to minimize biological risk.  相似文献   

13.
多溴联苯醚(polybrominated diphenyl ethers,PBDEs)是一类常用的溴代阻燃剂,由于使用广泛,已成为普遍存在的环境污染物。研究表明,PBDEs具有内分泌干扰作用,影响甲状腺功能,对胚胎发育、婴幼儿及儿童的健康存在潜在的危害。本研究采集了100例具羊水穿刺指征的孕妇的孕中期羊水样本,采用罗氏全自动电化学发光免疫分析仪测定羊水中促甲状腺激素(TSH)、三碘甲状腺原氨酸(TT3)、游离三碘甲状腺原氨酸(FT3)、甲状腺素(TT4)、游离甲状腺素(FT4)、抗甲状腺过氧化酶抗体(TPOA)和抗甲状腺球蛋白抗体(TGA)的含量,用气相色谱-负化学源-质谱法测定羊水样品中16种PBDEs同系物含量。结果显示,羊水中TSH、TT3、FT3、TT4、FT4中位数分别为0.342μIU·m L-1、0.949 nmol·L-1、1.52 pmol·L-1、11.02 nmol·L-1和3.91pmol·L-1,95%参考区间值分别为0.174~0.872μIU·m L-1、0.835~1.01 nmol·L-1、1.26~2.72 pmol·L-1、9.42~20.68 nmol·L-1和2.16~6.35 pmol·L-1。具有唐氏筛查高风险和甲状腺激素水平低下的羊水样品中共检出6种BDEs(BDE-47、BDE-71、BDE-138、BDE-183、BDE-190、BDE-209),其中BDE-71、183和190在被检羊水样品中均被检出,并且,TSH水平低下的羊水中BDE-190和209负荷水平显著高于正常组。这些结果提示,大连地区孕中期妇女羊水存在PBEDs内暴露,并且PBDEs内暴露可能与羊水的甲状腺激素水平低下、尤其TSH水平升高有关,提示PBDEs暴露可能与胎儿中枢神经系统损伤产生的下丘脑-垂体-甲状腺(HPT)轴功能失调有关。因此,羊水PBDEs内暴露对新生儿出生结局的影响值得进一步关注。  相似文献   

14.
Clair Patterson and colleagues demonstrated already four decades ago that the lead cycle was greatly altered on a global scale by humans. Moreover, this change occurred long before the implementation of monitoring programs designed to study lead and other trace metals. Patterson and colleagues also developed stable lead isotope analyses as a tool to differentiate between natural and pollution-derived lead. Since then, stable isotope analyses of sediment, peat, herbaria collections, soils, and forest plants have given us new insights into lead biogeochemical cycling in space and time. Three important conclusions from our studies of lead in the Swedish environment conducted over the past 15 years, which are well supported by extensive results from elsewhere in Europe and in North America, are: (1) lead deposition rates at sites removed from major point sources during the twentieth century were about 1,000 times higher than natural background deposition rates a few thousand years ago (~10 mg Pb m?2 year?1 vs. 0.01 mg Pb m?2 year?1), and even today (~1 mg Pb m?2 year?1) are still almost 100 times greater than natural rates. This increase from natural background to maximum fluxes is similar to estimated changes in body burdens of lead from ancient times to the twentieth century. (2) Stable lead isotopes (206Pb/207Pb ratios shown in this paper) are an effective tool to distinguish anthropogenic lead from the natural lead present in sediments, peat, and soils for both the majority of sites receiving diffuse inputs from long range and regional sources and for sites in close proximity to point sources. In sediments >3,500 years and in the parent soil material of the C-horizon, 206Pb/207Pb ratios are higher, 1.3 to >2.0, whereas pollution sources and surface soils and peat have lower ratios that have been in the range 1.14–1.18. (3) Using stable lead isotopes, we have estimated that in southern Sweden the cumulative anthropogenic burden of atmospherically deposited lead is ~2–5 g Pb m?2 and ~1 g Pb m?2 in the “pristine” north. Half of this cumulative total was deposited before industrialization. (4) In the vicinity of the Rönnskär smelter in northern Sweden, a major point source during the twentieth century, there is an isotopic pattern that deviates from the general trends elsewhere, reflecting the particular history of ore usage at Rönnskär, which further demonstrates the chronological record of lead loading recorded in peat and in soil mor horizons.  相似文献   

15.
Intake of many persistent organic pollutants (POPs) including dioxins, dibenzofurans and PCBs is almost exclusively from gastrointestinal ingestion of animal fats in the diet. With polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE) brominated flame retardants (BFRs), no consensus exists at present as to the extent of intake from food, from indoor dust or other routes of intake. Vegans, or pure vegetarians, were previously found to have low body burden of dioxins and dibenzofurans in blood. Data reported here for the first time show a trend towards lower PBDE levels with longer time periods without ingestion of food of animal origin in 8 adult residents of the United States. A stronger relationship between lower PBDE levels and time without meat, specifically, is consistent with substantial PBDE intake from meat relative to fish or dairy products in Americans. These vegans had somewhat lower PBDE levels with a range 12.4–127 and a median 23.9?ppb than published reports of US general population samples which had a range of 4–366 and median of 26?ppb. Our findings suggest that food of animal origin may be a major but not the sole contributor to human body burden of PBDEs.  相似文献   

16.
A number of studies have reported on the exposure of e-waste dismantling workers to significantly high concentrations of halogenated organic pollutants such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers. Such exposure can have adverse health effects. However, little information on the metabolites of these contaminants exists. In this study, we investigated PCBs levels and their hydroxylated metabolites (OH-PCB) in the serum of e-waste workers in Taizhou in eastern China. Our results indicate elevated PCB and OH-PCB levels in the serum of the workers, with medians of 443.7 and 133.9 ng/g lw, respectively. Tri- to hexachlorinated PCB congeners were the dominant homologue groups in all of the samples. 4-OH-CB107 was the predominant homologue among the hydroxylated metabolites, accounting for 88.9% of the total OH-PCB concentrations. While dietary sources (e.g., fish) appear to be an important route for PCB accumulation in non-occupational exposure groups, exposure via ingestion of house dust and inhalation of pollutants derived from the recycling of PCB-containing e-wastes may primarily contribute to the high body burden observed in the occupational groups. Since we found concentrations of metabolites higher than those of their parent compounds, further studies need to pay more attention to their bioaccumulation and toxicity.  相似文献   

17.
Constructed wetlands (CWs) have been used effectively to remove nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) from non-point sources. Effluents of some CWs were, however, still with high N and P concentrations and remained to be pollution sources. Widely distributed paddy fields can be exploited to alleviate this concern. We were the first to investigate a combination system of three-level CWs with wetland paddy fields in a full scale to remove N and P from rural unregulated non-point sources. The removal efficiencies (REs) of CWs reached 57.3 % (37.4–75.1 %) for N and 76.3 % (62.0–98.4 %) for P. The CWs retained about 1,278 kg N ha?1 year?1 and 121 kg P ha?1 year?1. There was a notable seasonal change in REs of N and P, and the REs were different in different processing components of CWs. The removal rates of wetland paddy fields adopt “zero-drainage” water management according to local rainfall forecast and physiological water demand of crop growth reached 93.2 kg N ha?1 year?1 and 5.4 kg P ha?1 year?1. The rice season had higher potential in removing N and P than that in the wheat season. The whole combined system (0.56 ha CWs and 5.5 ha wetland paddy fields) removed 1,790 kg N year?1 and 151 kg P year?1, which were higher than those from CWs functioned alone. However, another 4.7-ha paddy fields were needed to fully remove the N and P in the effluents of CWs. The combination of CWs and paddy fields proved to be a more efficient nutrient removal system.  相似文献   

18.
Uranium is a naturally occurring radioactive element which may cause toxicological or radiological hazards to the public if present in drinking water. This study reports the quantification of uranium in groundwater of major towns of the district Fatehabad, Haryana, India. Uranium concentrations ranged between 0.3 and 48 μg L?1. In 22% of the groundwater samples, uranium concentrations were higher than the World Health Organization maximum permissible limit of 30 µg L?1. The radiological dose for males was found to be in the range of 4.8?×?10?4–7.1?×?10?2 mSv y?1 and for females 3.5?×?10?4–5.2?×?10?2 mSv y?1. The results showed that due to the ingestion of groundwater in the study area, radiological cancer risk is in the range of 9.1?×?10?7–1.3?×?10?4, lower than the risk limit. Uranium ingestion from groundwater varied from 0.02 to 3.5 µg kg?1 day?1, which is within acceptable limit.  相似文献   

19.
Mercury and arsenic pollution has been recognized as a potential environmental and public health problem for over 40 years. The major source of exposure to mercury for humans is the ingestion of fish. This study was conducted with the aim of determining the levels of mercury and arsenic in the muscles of four fish species caught in the Beheshtabad River and comparing the results with the maximum tolerance levels for mercury and arsenic. The samples of 90 fish were used for the determination of both the metals by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry. The results showed that the concentrations ranged from 1.5 to 3.8 µg kg?1 for mercury and from 35 to 70 µg kg?1 for arsenic, with means of 2.7 ± 0.5 and 57 ± 12 µg kg?1, respectively. Both mean levels were lower than the threshold limits acceptable by WHO standards.  相似文献   

20.
The spatial distribution of mangroves in the Mngazana Estuary under sea level rise induced by climate change, together with different substrate elevation change scenarios was predicted for 2020, 2050 and 2100. The present inundation frequency tolerance range was from 0.8 to 31.2 %, equivalent to substrate elevation thresholds of 1.1 and 1.7 m amsl. These thresholds were measured by field surveys and analysis of a gauge station situated near the mouth of the estuary. The predictions were based on the assumption that the inundation frequency tolerance range of mangrove stands remains constant in the future. Through the use of a digital elevation model an initial increase of 2.10 ha year?1 was found in mangrove area between present and 2020 (from 122.6 to 143.6 ha). This was due to habitat becoming available that is currently too compacted for seedling establishment to occur. This compaction resulted from human and cattle traffic for grazing. Thereafter there would be a mean loss of 0.66 ha year?1 from 2020 through 2100. Landward migration of mangroves would not take place due to the elevation limit of adjacent non-mangrove areas. In addition, the loss rate would increase to 1.01 ha year?1 under insufficient sediment accretion, but would decrease to 0.18 ha year?1 under thriving mangroves condition. The analysis of sea storm event in September 2008 showed that local water level increased by 28 cm and maximum affected area was 87.0 ha (about 71 % of mangrove stands). The inundation continued over 5 days. The results indicated that the combination impact of sea level rise, substrate elevation change and sea storm would possibly be a threat to tropical African estuaries with large flat intertidal areas and mangroves.  相似文献   

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