国际气候变化科学和评估对中国应对气候变化的启示

科学研究和评估工作推动了国际应对气候变化进程,并加大了各国行动力度。更多的科学证据表明人类活动是造成全球气候变暖的主要原因;气候变化影响、适应和脆弱性研究范围不断扩展和深化,区域甚至次国家级层面的问题受到高度关注;2℃温控目标的实现已然成为共识,政策协调与集成及相关政策在不同领域的协同作用成为研究的热点。未来中国应对气候变化需要在四个方面进一步开展研究和采取行动:1加强不同学科和领域的研究工作,围绕与实现温升控制1.5℃、土地利用、海洋以及城市相关问题开展专题研究。2加强国内绿色低碳转型和国际谈判的战略研究。3构建气候服务体系,以灾害风险管理为抓手,提升气候变化适应水平。4通过构建能源互联网实现能源变革,加快推进国内能源革命和经济发展的低碳转型。     

中国应对气候变化的战略进程与角色转型:从防范“黑天鹅”灾害到迎战“灰犀牛”风险

全球气候治理对于气候风险的认识一直在不断发展。国际气候谈判启动伊始,主导力量呼吁各国根据"共同但有区别的责任"原则积极进行温室气体减排,致力于防止出现难以预料但影响巨大的"黑天鹅"式的气候灾害。而当前各国减排力度与全球温控目标仍存在明显的差距,人类社会极有可能面临的大概率、影响大的"灰犀牛"式的气候风险。中国曾多次面临极端气候事件,但在新中国成立之后陆续建设的各类基础设施,提升了全社会应对自然灾害和气候灾害的能力及水平。从国际社会输入国内的对全球性气候变化的认知,强化了中国对灾变性气候"黑天鹅"事件的防范意识。随着中国工业化和城市化进程的推进,气候变化可能导致的自然灾害成为严重威胁中国可持续发展的"灰犀牛"风险。在这种认识转变的背景下,中国应对气候变化的战略进程,经历了灾害防范、科学参与、权益维护、发展协同和贡献引领5个阶段。中国气候战略转型的主要原因在于化石能源燃烧所排放的二氧化碳总量的快速攀升、经济发展水平和能力的增强,以及中国生态环境面临的严峻压力。面对全球性的气候变化问题,中国不仅从自身情况出发去积极应对,也在为全球安全做出贡献。当前,国内深化推进生态文明建设,对气候变化的态度已经转为主动积极去迎战具有"灰犀牛"属性的气候变化风险。中国应对气候变化的国家战略,已经转变为强化国内行动完善中国特色的"中国方案",在国际主动引领国际气候进程,迎战威胁人类未来的气候风险。     

中国在气候变化谈判资金机制演变进程中的挑战及应对

气候变化是当今人类社会面临的最严峻的全球性环境挑战之一,气候变化谈判关乎各国在气候秩序中的权力与义务,涉及到各国经济发展的根本利益,已经成为国际政治博弈的新舞台.根据联合国气候变化框架公约和巴厘路线图精神,发达国家应承担起历史责任,向发展中国家提供新的、额外的、可持续的、可预测的资金支持,帮助其应对气候变化的不利影响.但是,由于发达国家缺乏履行公约义务的政治诚意,长期以来在资金问题上同发展中国家展开了艰苦的斗争.哥本哈根会议后,全球应对气候变化资金呈现出资金来源多样化,资金规模逐渐缩水,资金治理机制对发达国家出资约束力近一步降低的趋势.各利益集团围绕资金机制谈判展开激烈博弈,欧盟与美国正在逐步突破“共同但有区别的责任”原则,争夺气候变化谈判领导权并力图将我国拉入出资国之列,发展中国家阵营逐步分化为“基础四国”、“小岛屿国家”、“最不发达国家”等,保持共同立场难度日渐增大.尽管绿色气候基金在德班会议后正式启动,若无资金注入,也只能为未来资金机制谈判带来不确定性.面对上述形势,我国应坚持公约基本原则,坚持发展中国家定位,加强综合研究及前瞻性判断,以积极的姿态和务实的态度参与应对气候变化的国际谈判,以争取自身的发展权益,维护国家核心利益.同时,探索在当前发展阶段下发展低碳经济和建立低碳社会的路线图,不断提高减缓和适应气候变化的能力,实现自觉减排,为全球应对气候变化做出积极贡献.     

公平获取可持续发展——与潘家华研究员的访谈录

<正>可持续发展是当今在全球形成的共识,公平获取可持续发展对于发展中国家尤其是基础四国更加重要。积极应对气候变化是实现可持续发展的重要内容,但是,关于气候变化的谈判却十分艰难,基础四国为推进气候变化谈判、公平获取可持续发展做出很大努力。中国学者围绕气候问题和气候变化谈判开展了深入研究,     

中国碳市场发展若干重大问题的思考

自京都议定书确定市场机制减缓气候变化以来,国际碳市场发展迅速,呈现全球化、金融化的发展趋势。从经济利益角度来分析,国际气候谈判的本质,一是发展空间的争夺,二是经济利益的竞争。由于碳市场具有政策兼容性强、区域行业拓展性强和金融衍生性强三大优点,国际碳市场将是各国经济利益博弈的主要载体,市场机制将成为未来全球气候协议的核心要素。通过深入分析市场机制与全球气候谈判长期目标、资金、监测报告核查以及行业减排等重要议题的密切关系,提出了发达国家气候谈判的核心利益之一就是旨在推动建立全球统一碳市场。一方面通过控制全球碳市场的标准、市场、金融等体系和规则主导话语权,继续保持发达国家在全球低碳发展下的经济竞争优势,另一方面则可巧妙逃避发达国家历史排放责任与气候债务。基于国际碳市场发展的深刻背景与中国碳排放交易试点的情况,对中国发展碳市场的重大问题提出了四方面建议:一是中国碳市场发展目标应服务于国家应对气候变化的总体政策和目标;二是中国碳市场应以实体经济为主体,并服务其升级转型;三是建立和发展全国统一的碳市场首先必须考虑区域不平衡的原则;四是中国碳市场的国际链接应与中国金融体系的对外开放进程结合,特别是应与人民币的国际化进程相结合。     

走向更为积极的气候变化政策与管理

我国目前应对气候变化的策略表现为：将气候变化政策视为可持续发展政策的一部分；在参与全球气候变化的国际协议方面有着鲜明立场；重视气候变化方面的科学研究；把气候变化问题作为环境外交的重要部分；努力吸引公众参与等方面。但在政策的制定和执行中仍缺乏应有的积极性、主动性和前瞳性。我国的气候变化治理结构存在的问题主要包括：缺乏明确的决策机构和执行机构。科学研究对政策制定的支持能力不足，公众参与薄弱．企业减缓气候变化的动力不足。针对这些问题．提出了以“走向更为积极的气候变化政策与管理”为核心的改进治理结构的政策建议。     

应对气候变化损失与危害国际机制对中国相关工作的启示

气候变化造成的损失与危害已经威胁到人类的可持续发展,国际多边框架下减缓与适应工作进展缓慢,应对气候变化损失与危害国际机制作为潜在的直接解决方案日益引起科学界和决策者的重视。本文回顾了气候变化损失与危害国际机制的由来,深入分析了气候变化损失与危害国际机制的内涵,梳理出国内应对气候变化损失与危害相关工作的现状,主要包括国家财政转移支付、社会捐助制度和自然灾害保险。总结出其对我国应对气候变化损失与危害工作的启示,并提出国内应对气候变化损失与危害工作的对策与建议:构建我国应对气候变化损失与损害框架系统,建立国内应对气候变化损失与危害相关的政府财政转移支付、救灾捐赠体系和农业灾害保险等的整合机制;充分利用气候变化损失与危害机制中的保险工具,重点发展巨灾类保险产品的研究与开发,适度增加政府的引导和财政支持力度,不断扩大气候灾害保险的覆盖度和受益度;加强国内重点区域和领域的气候变化风险管理,通过建立完善的风险预估、灾前预警、灾中救助和灾后恢复等机制,有效降低重点区域和领域的气候灾害风险;开展气候变化损失与危害机制的科学基础研究,加强损失与危害评估理论、方法和数据获取等方面的研究;警惕气候变化损失与危害机制带来的出资压力,明确我国是发展中国家的定位,不能承担与发达国家"具有同等能力"的责任,并制定损失与危害机制谈判中"污染者付费"责任的应对策略。     

科技合作引领气候治理的新形势与战略探索

《巴黎协定》的达成预示着全球正在积极向低碳转型。依靠技术创新与合作应对气候变化业已成为国际共识。欧盟近年来在气候变化领域的领导力式微,美国特朗普政府直接宣布退出《巴黎协定》,全球气候治理一度失去领导力和方向感。中国是全球气候治理进程的积极维护者,引导气候变化多边进程,并以实际行动切实履行应对气候变化的承诺。近年来,中国已经从低碳技术输入国和受援国,逐步转变为技术输入和输出并举。在"后巴黎"时期的全球气候治理中,中国应当做好战略性谋划和布局,以应对气候变化领域国际科技合作为切入点,以"践行人类命运共同体利益,开展科技合作应对气候变化,主动引领全球气候治理新方向"为指导思想,以实现中国生态文明建设目标和应对气候变化软实力和科技竞争力提升为内在动力,全面、积极、主动引领全球气候治理走向依靠国际科技合作应对气候变化新方向。     

科学与政治之间:大规模政府间气候评估及其缺陷

在应对全球气候变化问题上,政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)引领的大规模评估由于代表了国际科学界的集体工作,并与《联合国气候变化框架公约》下的国际谈判制度持续互动而备受关注。两者的密切关系已体现在气候治理的各个历史阶段。具体而言,通过嵌入国际制度,气候评估具有警告公众、影响国家政策取向、推动国际协议、促使跨国公司改变行为、引领科学研究和学术交流等重要作用。同时,IPCC还通过传播评估报告结论等方式参与国际气候外交。由于其开放性,科学评估也经常成为国家行为体和非国家行为体施加影响的政策工具。从科学与政治互动的积极方面来看,其一,科学评估机构一贯充当推动国际气候进程的角色,并凭借权威性,不断强化科学信息的政策扩散。其二,第五次报告发布之后,评估日益突出"解决方案"取向,2018年升温1.5℃特别报告和后续的第六次评估报告将影响《巴黎协定》的履约情况,其未来演进与机制改革也将深刻塑造2020年后的全球气候治理。虽然,气候评估已经证明了其作为科学合作机制的价值,但与国际谈判的关系也存在一些紧张之处:一是,评估机制弊端频现,影响对谈判的支撑。二是,机制安排的路径依赖性严重,缺乏重大而有效的改革。三是,评估结论的传播日益困难。四是,其评估内容与国际谈判时常脱节。本质上,这是由于科学形成共识规律与科学机构形成共识的政治机制存在矛盾。一方面,学科间的差异化和文献数量庞大导致评价日益难以形成共识;另一方面,科学机构作为"认知权威"具有以共识推动政治进程并提升其国际地位的偏好。两者围绕所谓的"共识"问题所形成的困境已经日益彰显。因此,重新理解政府间气候评估在全球政策制定中的角色已经成为当前治理中的紧迫问题。     

低碳环境友好技术国际转移博弈论研究

促进低碳环境友好技术的国际转移是全球应对气候变化的重要方面.论文探讨博弈论方法在此类技术转移研究中的应用,通过建立起转移双方国家间宏观博弈、企业间微观博弈的双层、非台作完全信息静态博弈模型,从企业、国家、国际社会三个层面综合分析重点影响因素.该模型中宏观参与人为双方国家,微观参与人为双方政府、企业和公民.研究表明,企业层面的项目投资回报率要求,国家层面的税收水平、项目管制或补贴资金水平,以及国际社会层面的气候变化应对项目支持资金水平是主要直接影响因素;双方的公民环保意识水平通过干预国家相关政策制定与实施而成为重要间接影响因素.最后,就促进我国引进技术、应对气候变化并促进相关产业发展提出政策建议,如坚定国际气候谈判中的积极立场、建立国际技术交易信息平台和优化技术引进项目资金支持机制等.     

Consideration of some key issues of carbon market development in China

The global carbon market has developed rapidly with two significant trends of globalization and financialization.Deriving economic interest is a nation driven-force behind the international climate negotiation and carbon market.According to deeply analyzed relationships between the carbon market and the key subjects of the climate negotiation,this article reveals that promoting the development of the global carbon market is one of the core interests of developed nations.Based on the background of international carbon market development and domestic carbon market pilots,four suggestions to the key issues of China’s carbon market are provided.The first is that the goal of China’s carbon market should be in line with and contribute to the national objectives and policies addressing climate change.The second is that the Chinese carbon market should mainly target the emission reduction of production-sectors,and contribute to their upgradation and transformation.The third is mat the development of the nation-wide carbon market in China should first take the principle of unbalanced regional development into consideration.The fourth is that linking China’s carbon market to the international market should keep steps in line with international opening-up of China’s financing system.     

Geopolitics of global climate change and energy security

Currently,the problem of climate change is already far beyond the category of scientific research,and it affects the economic operation mode,interests pattern,and geographical relationships and becomes the focus of global governance.During the transition period of the international economic and social development and the critical transformation period of the world geopolitical pattern reorganization,China’s industrialization is still at the intermediate stage,and tackling with climate change is also China’s internal demand under this development stage.With more influence of climate change on national competitiveness,climate change and geopolitics present complex multiple relations,and climate change in the era of geopolitical landscape gradually affected the national strategy and diplomacy.This article offered some relevant suggestions based on evaluating the new geopolitical characteristics of climate change:(1)weighing of interests and properly handling the complex relations among major powers during international climate negotiations;(2)strengthening risk judgments and actively cooperating with the United States and the European Union on energy and climate change;(3)relying on the"One Belt(Silk Road Economic Belt)and One Road(twenty-first century Maritime Silk Road)"to ensure China’s energy security and actively participating in the global energy governance;(4)strengthening the"south-south cooperation"mechanism innovation and increasing the investment.     

Matching mechanism in global public goods games: a case of climate protection

In the setting of dealing with climate change, this article designs a matching mechanism for global public goods provision with the aggregative game approach. Given endowment and the technology of each country, we propose the conditions under which the matching mechanism is able to guarantee full participation and Pareto efficient provision, respectively, in the cases with certain and uncertain preference information. These conditions cannot only be adopted in international negotiation and cooperation, but also refines the theory of matching game. In comparative static analyses, we discover that: First, changes of initial stock of climate goods produce a wealth effect and the crowd-out effect is less than 1. Second, climate tax policies affect the supply and welfare of each country only when they produce wealth effects, and if tax revenue is transferred into climate goods with more advanced technology, they will produce positive wealth effects. Third, modifying matching plans dynamically and appropriately can urge countries to improve technology, and especially given a Pareto optimal mechanism, adjusting the matching plan to keep marginal rates of transformation unchanged as technology changes is still able to ensure full participation and efficient supply of climate goods.     

Climate Change Responsibility and China’s Endeavor

The problem of climate change is a global challenge.It is closely associated with social development and human survival,and it has a significant impact to all countries on energy development,economic competitiveness,technological innovation,and way of life.In recent years,with the rapid economic development in China,there is a rumor that the rapid growth of China’s carbon dioxide emission offset the efforts of the international community in reducing emissions,and China should bear the international responsibility corresponding to its significant role in greenhouse gas emission,which obviously are unfair and not objective.As this paper reveals,"China environment responsibility" that is the socalled "China environment threat" or theories,China has made a positive contribution to addressing the climate change in the past and China will still be the backbone on the protection of global climate in the future.     

后巴黎时代气候变化公约资金机制的构建

气候变化公约资金机制是串联全球开展应对气候变化行动的纽带,也是通过国际合作实现"2℃"乃至"1.5℃"温控目标的关键支撑。多年来,由于发达国家和发展中国家在是否依据历史责任划分履约义务上存在根本分歧,公约资金机制面临多渠道并行、运行规则多样化、资金使用分散、运行效率偏低、绩效评估欠缺等问题。本文对气候变化公约缔结20余年来各资金机制的产生和运行进行了系统梳理;对其存在的不足以及在全球气候融资体系中面临的挑战进行了剖析;并基于《巴黎协定》资金案文描述和履约要求,围绕气候资金从筹集到最终绩效产出全过程,就如何构建未来气候变化公约资金机制进行了统筹规划和设计。在机制建设层面,通过出资分摊机制以及公约下集中式管理平台的构建,确保气候资金的充足性、可预见性以及对公约的责任性;在运行操作层面,通过各渠道重点业务领域及国别资金分配体系的优化,推动气候资金的公平性和有效性;在资金使用层面,通过受援国气候资金统一管理实体和监督评估体系的建立,提高气候资金的国家主导性和环境效益。未来,公约资金机制仍将是全球开展应对气候变化国际合作的主要渠道,在《巴黎协定》达成、绿色气候基金正式运行、国际气候制度重新构建的背景下,利用资金机制推动发达国家履行公约义务,切实向发展中国家提供资金、技术和能力建设支持,对确保公约各要素的全面性和平衡性,推动全球应对气候变化行动开展,强化发展中国家集团统一立场都有着重要的现实意义。     

应对气候变化需以生态文明理念构建全球技术合作体系

气候变化是人类发展过程中遇到的最大全球性环境问题,也是最大的外部性问题。IPCC报告显示,实现本世纪末温度升高不超过2度的目标,需要全球经济和能源系统深度的低碳转型,并在本世纪下半叶达到温室气体的净零排放。应对气候变化因此面临着前所未有的技术创新与合作需求。2015年底达成的《巴黎协定》提出了落实技术开发与转让的长期愿景,主张对气候变化领域的技术创新给予政策和资金支持,使发展中国家在技术周期的早期阶段就能够获取必要的技术,从而为实现全球应对气候变化提供保障。然而,基于工业文明的传统技术创新与合作模式难以满足保护全球气候的技术需求。减缓与适应技术是气候变化挑战下全球命运共同体的公共财富。为保证其足够的供应,必须超越追求私人利益最大化的狭隘,基于生态文明理念构建全球应对气候变化的新型技术合作体系。其核心是:实现多赢的合作目标,遵循"生态人"的合作原则,体现协同的合作内容,基于互信的合作形式,鼓励多元主体的参与,促进合作成果的分享。中国作为新兴发展中大国,对应对气候变化技术国际合作有多元的利益需求。为有效落实《巴黎协定》,亟需以加速国际合作为契机,积极谋划中国应对气候变化技术对外合作的总体方略和具体行动,有针对性地制定与发达国家、其他发展中国家及欠发达国家间优势互补的合作计划,探索并引导"南-北-南"三方技术合作等新形式。     

Compromises of Bali Roadmap

The Bali Roadmap, as the breakthrough on intergovernmental negotiation of climate change mitigation, having brought United States on track, is still a result of compromises. The major compromises of the Bali Roadmap are centered around three issues of quantifying emission reduction targets, developing countries＇ obligations as well as quantifying developed countries＇ financial assistance in developing countries＇ capacity building on climate change. It is found that the rationalities behind these compromises are the national interests. Due to the fact, achieving cohesion among all nations in climate change actions is very difficult. Therefore, the Bali Roadmap may lead to a tough way with distant hope. However, technology innovation and well-designed economic instruments would be helpful and supportive for further international negotiation and cooperation.     

Bound to lead?Rethinking China's role after Paris in UNFCCC negotiations

As the biggest global emitter of greenhouse gases, China is an extremely important actor in international climate negotiations. During the climate summit in Copenhagen, China was blamed for its uncooperative positions particularly from the US side. However, in the Paris climate process, China's participation in international negotiations is more active, and has become a wellrecognized promoter of the Paris Agreement. To understand China's climate policy, the economic and diplomatic strategy should be taken into consideration, especially the changes in the ideas of China's global governance rooted from domestic politics discourse. Moreover, China's symmetrical changes within domestic and international dimension possibly bring out more balanced climate policies and thus the constructive role of China will be the normalcy in the future United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Changenegotiations. However, the negotiations after the US presidential elections may change dramatically and yields great uncertainty for global action. Thus, the vacuum of power may be a possible scenario. Will China reinforce its role toward leadership or go back to group politics? This article examines China's concerns, motives, and possible path to climate leadership in the current debate.     

Compromises of Bali Roadmap

Abstract

The Bali Roadmap, as the breakthrough on inter-governmental negotiation of climate change mitigation, having brought United States on track, is still a result of compromises. The major compromises of the Bali Roadmap are centered around three issues of quantifying emission reduction targets, developing countries’ obligations as well as quantifying developed countries’ financial assistance in developing countries’ capacity building on climate change. It is found that the rationalities behind these compromises are the national interests. Due to the fact, achieving cohesion among all nations in climate change actions is very difficult. Therefore, the Bali Roadmap may lead to a tough way with distant hope. However, technology innovation and well-designed economic instruments would be helpful and supportive for further international negotiation and cooperation.     

Climate Change Responsibility and China＇s Endeavor

The problem of climate change is a global challenge. It is closely associated with social development and human survival, and it has a significant impact to all countries on energy develop- ment, economic competitiveness, technological innovation, and way of life. In recent years, with the rapid economic development in China, there is a rumor that the rapid growth of China＇s carbon dioxide emission offset the efforts of the international community in reducing emissions, and China should bear the international responsibility corresponding to its significant role in greenhouse gas emission, which obviously are unfair and not objective. As this paper reveals, ＂China environment responsibility＂ that is the socalled ＂China environment threat＂ or theories, China has made a positive contribution to addressing the climate change in the past and China will still be the backbone on the protection of global climate in the future.