Removal process estimation of population size for a population with a known sex ratio

A removal model for estimating population size which uses the known population sex ratio is studied. A maximum likelihood estimate and an optimal martingale estimate of the population size are proposed. Their standard errors and large sample properties are obtained. Simulation studies are reported, and the performance of the proposed estimators are compared with the standard maximum likelihood estimator which ignores the sex ratio information. An example on a capture study of deer mice is given.     

Setting population targets for mammals using body mass as a predictor of population persistence

Conservation planning and biodiversity assessments need quantitative targets to optimize planning options and assess the adequacy of current species protection. However, targets aiming at persistence require population‐specific data, which limit their use in favor of fixed and nonspecific targets, likely leading to unequal distribution of conservation efforts among species. We devised a method to derive equitable population targets; that is, quantitative targets of population size that ensure equal probabilities of persistence across a set of species and that can be easily inferred from species‐specific traits. In our method, we used models of population dynamics across a range of life‐history traits related to species’ body mass to estimate minimum viable population targets. We applied our method to a range of body masses of mammals, from 2 g to 3825 kg. The minimum viable population targets decreased asymptotically with increasing body mass and were on the same order of magnitude as minimum viable population estimates from species‐ and context‐specific studies. Our approach provides a compromise between pragmatic, nonspecific population targets and detailed context‐specific estimates of population viability for which only limited data are available. It enables a first estimation of species‐specific population targets based on a readily available trait and thus allows setting equitable targets for population persistence in large‐scale and multispecies conservation assessments and planning.     

Kinships in a natural meadow vole population

Summary We have devised a radionuclide technique that allows the assessment of matrilineal kinship by the transfer of unique combinations of gamma-emitting radionuclides from pregnant and lactating female meadow voles (Microtus pennsylvanicus) to their offspring. A pool of prospective fathers can be established from field records of reproductively active males that were alive at the time of conception of the female's litter. Electrophoresis of 6 proteins allowed us to eliminate genetically incompatible males from the prospective pool of fathers. A log-likelihood statistic provided an estimate of the probability of paternity. In the case of numerical ties physical proximity of the males to the mother at the time of conception was used. With these techniques, we established 40 kinships in a field population of meadow voles.     

Mating system shift in a pronghorn population

Summary At the National Bison Range (western Montana, USA), pronghorn (Antilocapra american) maintained a territorial mating system from as early as 1965 through 1978. Preliminary observations in 1981 suggested that the mating system had changed. Data from the ruts, 1982–1984 revealed a progressive decay in territoriality. In this paper, data from the territorial years 1969–1978 are contrasted with data from the decay years 1982–1984, with results as follow: 1. In 1982–84, fewer territories were defended than in 1969–78. This was attributable to a smaller proportion of males defending territories in 1982–84, not to a smaller number of males. 2. In 1982–84, most territory owners either abandoned their territories early in ruts, or lost control of females on them following frequent, persistent intrusions by non-territorial males. Abandonment and loss of control did not occur in 1969–78. 3. In 1982–84, territorial males that maintained control of females on their territories did so by shrinking their zones of defense to small areas around female groups. 4. In 1982–84, following the disruption or severe disturbance of all territories, many females left territories, and mated elsewhere, with non-territorial males. In 1969–78, most females remained on territories throughout rut, and mated with territory owners. —The mating system change followed catastrophic winter mortality, 1978–79, that removed 75% of the males, including all males older than 5 years, and all male fawns, from the population. In 1982–84, the number of males present was not different from the number of males in 1969–1978, but the frequency distribution of male ages was strongly shifted toward younger ages. The small number of older males, 1982–84, likely resulted in smaller proportions of males initially defending territories, and in less effective territory defense. When females then clustered on the few territories where defense was at first successful, they attracted large numbers of non-territorial males. The resulting high rates of raids on these territories, coupled with reduced defense radii by territorial males, allowed females only 12% reclining time (summer percentage was 39%). This increased energy cost, plus an apparently greater risk of injury on weakly defended territories, appeared to prompt many females to seek calmer matings elsewhere. Also, if female pronghorn practiced mate selection based upon horn or body size, they may have reduced their efforts to remain on territories in 1982–84. Males from 1969–78 were larger than males from 1982–84, and showed greater variance in horn size. At least two conditions appear to influence the tendency of males to be territorial. First, males must be at least three years old before they attempt to defend a territory. Second, the declining proportion of males defending territories, 1982–84, that coincided with an increasing number of males three years and older, suggests that males also decide whether or not to attempt territory defense based upon the frequency of territorial defense in the population.     

Fish population dynamics in a seasonally varying wetland

Small fishes in seasonally flooded environments such as the Everglades are capable of spreading into newly flooded areas and building up substantial biomass. Passive drift cannot account for the rapidity of observed population expansions. To test the ‘reaction-diffusion’ mechanism for spread of the fish, we estimated their diffusion coefficient and applied a reaction-diffusion model. This mechanism was also too weak to account for the spatial dynamics. Two other hypotheses were tested through modeling. The first—the ‘refuge mechanism’—hypothesizes that small remnant populations of small fishes survive the dry season in small permanent bodies of water (refugia), sites where the water level is otherwise below the surface. The second mechanism, which we call the ‘dynamic ideal free distribution mechanism’ is that consumption by the fish creates a prey density gradient and that fish taxis along this gradient can lead to rapid population expansion in space. We examined the two alternatives and concluded that although refugia may play an important role in recolonization by the fish population during reflooding, only the second, taxis in the direction of the flooding front, seems capable of matching empirical observations. This study has important implications for management of wetlands, as fish biomass is an essential support of higher trophic levels.     

Predation-affected spatial pattern changes in a prey population

Predation-affected spatial pattern changes in a prey population were studied. The spatial pattern of a population of Galleria mellonella is changed by its predator, Podisus maculiventris. The pattern is affected by the frequency of attack by the predator (attack ability), the homogeneity of the attack ability within a predator population and the mobility of the predator. A mathematical model incorporating these three factors was constructed, and several computer simulations were conducted by changing the parameter values. A natural enemy population having high and homogeneous attack ability and high mobility effectively kills prey individuals.     

High mortality in a copepod population caused by a parasitic dinoflagellate

Infection of copepods by parasitic dinoflagellates has been known for many years, but the ecological consequences of this parasitism have been largely neglected. We estimated mortality rates in the copepodParacalanus indicus Wolfenden due to parasitism by the dinoflagellateAtelodinium sp. by applying laboratory mortality rates to a field population of infected copepods in Port Phillip Bay, Australia, sampled in 1982–1985. Adult female copepods were most often infected, with an incidence of 0 to 28.5% (median 6.2%). Stage V female copepodites were less often infected, and males were never infected. The median mortality rate in females was about 7% d^–1, or about one-third of total mortality, and the maximum was 41% d^–1. The frequent occurrence of dinoflagellate parasitoids in some species of copepod implies an important, species-specific mechanism for the regulation of populations.     

Estimating population dynamics without population data

We develop a biologically correct cost system for production systems facing invasive pests that allows the estimation of population dynamics without a priori knowledge of their true values. We apply that model to a data set for olive producers in Crete and derive from it predictions about the underlying population dynamics. Those dynamics are compared to information on population dynamics obtained from pest sampling with extremely favorable results.     

Estimating population dynamics without population data

We develop a biologically correct cost system for production systems facing invasive pests that allows the estimation of population dynamics without a priori knowledge of their true values. We apply that model to a data set for olive producers in Crete and derive from it predictions about the underlying population dynamics. Those dynamics are compared to information on population dynamics obtained from pest sampling with extremely favorable results.     

Perturbations of population growth in a microcosm by detergents

In order to assess the effects of detergents on a microcosm system several types of detergents (anionic, cationic, nonionic, and amino acid detergents) were tested. Data showed growth perturbations in the microcosm, indicating that these detergents affected the microcosm. The potential use of growth perturbations of microcosm by addition of detergents as a biomarker of exposure is described.     

Recovery after trampling disturbance in a canopy-forming seaweed population

The recovery of Ascophyllum nodosum, and the associated benthic community, was followed after repeated trampling disturbance at different intensities, from 2005 to 2010, at its southern limit (41°41′27″N; 8°50′57″W). The cover of A. nodosum and associated organisms and the demography of A. nodosum individuals in the most disturbed areas were followed over a recovery period of 54 months. Recovery of A. nodosum assemblages was negatively affected by increasing trampling intensity. After 54 months, the highest intensity plots were still significantly different from control plots. Growth and mortality rates of A. nodosum increased shortly after disturbance but progressively recovered to levels close to control plots. The results of this study demonstrate the sensitivity of this habitat-building species to human trampling and also show its plasticity to cope with disturbance events.     

Testing the effectiveness of capture mark recapture population estimation techniques using a computer simulation with known population size

Estimation of small mammal population sizes is important for monitoring ecosystem condition and for conservation. Here, we test the accuracy of standard methods of population size estimation using Capture-Mark-Recapture (CMR) on a simulated population of agents. The use of a computer simulation allows complete control of population sizes and behaviors, thereby avoiding assumptions that may be violated in real populations. We find that the recommended protocol for CMR sampling, using uniformly distributed traps, consistently overestimates population sizes by as much as 100% when studies are conducted over only two trapping periods. More than 20 trapping periods are required before this method, or that of placing traps randomly, gives an accurate estimation of population size (i.e., within a 95% confidence limit of the actual value). Non-random sampling, by placing traps on runways used by small mammals, produces the most accurate, and least variable, estimates of population. However, we show that around 10 trapping periods are still required to produce an accurate population estimate using this method. Given that most real populations do not comply with the ‘ideal’ assumptions made by CMR, we suggest that population estimates based on CMR may be fundamentally flawed, and recommend that protocols for CMR population estimation methods may need revising.     

Gametogenesis in a Northumberland population of the polychaete Melinna cristata

The proliferative activity of the germinal epithelium in relation to breeding biology has been investigated in a population of the ampharetid polychaete Melinna cristata (Sars). This species is dioecious and highly gregarious, and breeds during a brief period at the end of December or beginning of January. The gonal exists in proliferative and non-proliferative states. The former begins immediately after spawning, and is maintained until September. The rate of release of gametocytes into the coelom varies during this period, with peaks in January and April. In September, DNA synthesis ceases in gonads of both males and females and no further gametocytes are released into the coelom, but primary oocytes which have completed the S phase of meiosis continue to develop and accumulate in the ovary as a population of previtellogenic oocytes which are released into the coelom immediately after spawning. This cycle of germinal epithelium activity is compared with those described in other polychaetes.     

Reproduction of a Northumberland population of the polychaete Cirratulus cirratus

A population of Cirratulus cirratus (O. F. Müller) was sampled from September 1966 to September 1968. The population is found intertidally in crevices at Cullercoats Bay, Northumberland (UK). Measurements of the sexual maturity and size of the animals have been made. The breeding season is not restricted, spawning occurs in the population asynchronously throughout the year. Ripe worms and worms that have just spawned are invariably present, but the majority of females are always at intermediate stages of oogenesis. Adult males, however, always contain active spermatozoa. Females, but not males, are devoid of coelomic gametes after spawning; a new generation of coelomic oocytes begin to accumulate in the coelom after 30 days. The growth of the coelomic oocytes is relatively slow, the coelomic phase of oocyte development takes between 1 and 2 years for completion. The coelomoducts which serve for the emission of the gametes are described. An interpretation of the female population structure based upon length and sexual maturity data suggests that most females survive to spawn 2 or 3 times, and some to spawn 4 or 5 times. They grow in length by about 2 cm in the period between successive spawnings. The reproduction of Cirratulus cirratus is compared with that of other annelid species breeding throughout the year, and this unusual mode of reproduction is discussed.     

Emerging prion disease drives host selection in a wildlife population

Infectious diseases are increasingly recognized as an important force driving population dynamics, conservation biology, and natural selection in wildlife populations. Infectious agents have been implicated in the decline of small or endangered populations and may act to constrain population size, distribution, growth rates, or migration patterns. Further, diseases may provide selective pressures that shape the genetic diversity of populations or species. Thus, understanding disease dynamics and selective pressures from pathogens is crucial to understanding population processes, managing wildlife diseases, and conserving biological diversity. There is ample evidence that variation in the prion protein gene (PRNP) impacts host susceptibility to prion diseases. Still, little is known about how genetic differences might influence natural selection within wildlife populations. Here we link genetic variation with differential susceptibility of white-tailed deer to chronic wasting disease (CWD), with implications for fitness and disease-driven genetic selection. We developed a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) assay to efficiently genotype deer at the locus of interest (in the 96th codon of the PRNP gene). Then, using a Bayesian modeling approach, we found that the more susceptible genotype had over four times greater risk of CWD infection; and, once infected, deer with the resistant genotype survived 49% longer (8.25 more months). We used these epidemiological parameters in a multi-stage population matrix model to evaluate relative fitness based on genotype-specific population growth rates. The differences in disease infection and mortality rates allowed genetically resistant deer to achieve higher population growth and obtain a long-term fitness advantage, which translated into a selection coefficient of over 1% favoring the CWD-resistant genotype. This selective pressure suggests that the resistant allele could become dominant in the population within an evolutionarily short time frame. Our work provides a rare example of a quantifiable disease-driven selection process in a wildlife population, demonstrating the potential for infectious diseases to alter host populations. This will have direct bearing on the epidemiology, dynamics, and future trends in CWD transmission and spread. Understanding genotype-specific epidemiology will improve predictive models and inform management strategies for CWD-affected cervid populations.     

Mate choice by female white-crowned sparrows in a mixed-dialect population

Summary It has been argued that the song dialects of white-crowned sparrows, Zonotrichia leucophrys, may function to restrict gene flow between dialect populations, thus promoting adaptation to local environmental conditions. One proposed mechanism whereby this may occur is if a female mates preferentially with males singing her natal dialect, typically the song type of her father. Previous field and laboratory studies of the role played by song differences in mate choice by female white-crowned sparrows have produced equivocal results. These investigations were conducted in populations in which a single song dialect was predominant. We examined mate choice in a population in which two song dialects are equally common. We found that songs of mates of individual females in successive years were no more likely to be of the same dialect than expected by chance. In addition, individual females did not mate preferentially with males whose songs matched those of their fathers. We conclude that, in this population, females choose mates on the basis of characteristics other than song type.     

Complex dynamics of the population with a simple age structure

The effects of the following modes of density-dependent control of population growth: density-dependent birth rate, adult survival rate, juvenile survival rate are compared based on the mathematical model of population dynamics. It is shown that the most efficient mechanisms limiting population size are decreasing with the growth of the adult population birth rate and/or the decreasing survival rate of the offspring with the increase in their number. However, these same mechanisms are responsible for oscillations of the population size and its chaotic change. The density-dependence of the adult survival rate is not efficient in constraining the population growth, but it can substantially limit the magnitude of oscillations of the population size.     

Multiple mating opportunities boost protandry in a pied flycatcher population

Protandry, the earlier arrival of males than females to breeding areas, is widespread in birds, but its underlying mechanisms are far from well understood. The two, not mutually exclusive most highly supported hypotheses to explain avian protandry postulate that it has evolved from intrasexual male competition to acquire the best territories (“rank advantage” hypothesis) and/or to maximize the number of mates (“mate opportunity” hypothesis). We studied for two consecutive years the relative importance of both hypotheses in a population of pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca), a territorial songbird with a mixed mating strategy. We measured territory quality using a long-term dataset on nest occupation and breeding output, and we used molecular techniques to assess male fitness across the range of social and genetic mating options. Territory quality was unrelated to breeding date and had no influence on extra-pair paternity or social polygynous events. However, males breeding early increased their chances of becoming socially polygynous and/or of attaining extra-pair paternity and, as a consequence, increased their total reproductive success. These results support the “mate opportunity” hypothesis, suggesting that sexual selection is the main mechanism driving protandry in this population.     

Characterizing cumulative impacts using a brook trout population dynamics model

An individuals-based modelling framework is used to characterize the nature of exploitation and toxaphene stressors acting simultaneously on a population of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) in terms of age 0 + and adult abundance, survivorship and population size-structure. A no-stressor control case was estimated against which exploitation-only, toxaphene-only and cumulative exploitation and toxaphene stressor cases were compared to determine the extent and significance of impacts. Single stressor case results were used to predict cumulative impacts by assuming additivity and predictions compared to modelled cumulative stressor results. Comparisons indicated the inadequacy of assuming additivity in predicting cumulative impacts. A factorial experimental design was used to estimate the size and significance of interactive effects. Effects are substantial and underscore the necessity of interpreting probable impacts of increases in a single stressor in conjunction with knowledge of other stressors acting on a population. A positive functional relationship between variability in population abundance and stress was estimated and is suggested as a potentially useful means of characterizing risks posed to populations by increases in, or additions to, population stressors. Multiple stressors were also demonstrated to effectively eliminate the significance of density-dependent mortality processes in determining age 0 + and adult abundance. Taken together, results indicate the inappropriateness of attempting to predict additional perturbation impacts without considering the sum of population stressors and their associated interactions.