An Evaluation of Multiple Objective Decision Support Weighting Techniques in Natural Resource Management

Multiple objective decision support (MODS) is a structured framework for evaluating decision alternatives against multiple, and often conflicting, criteria. Its ability to handle complex trade-offs in a variety of quantitative and qualitative units gives it much potential in the field of natural resource management (NRM). A key component of MODS is the process used to obtain information from decision makers on the relative importance of evaluative criteria. Ranking algorithms then use this information to determine the relative value of each decision alternative. This paper explores how practising community based NRM decision makers respond to five generic methods for weighting the criteria. It presents a study in which 55 decision makers throughout five regions in Queensland, Australia, applied MODS to evaluate environmental projects seeking funding under the Australian Natural Heritage Trust. Weighting methods applied include fixed point scoring, rating, ordinal ranking, a graphical method and paired comparisons. Decision makers evaluated each weighting method in terms of ease of use and of how much it helped clarify the decision problem. Results show that decision makers felt uncomfortable applying fixed point scoring and generally preferred to express their preferences through ordinal ranking. This has implications for the types of ranking algorithms that can be applied to evaluate the decision alternatives.     

MULTICRITERION ANALYSIS OF FOREST WATERSHED MANAGEMENT ALTERNATIVES1

ABSTRACT: The impacts of alternative forest watershed management practices are examined from a multicriterion viewpoint in order to select the most satisfactory management scheme. The selection process is carried out using two types of multicriterion decision making techniques: the outranking types of ELECTRE I and II, and the distance-based type of compromise programming (CP). The process is illustrated using the U.S. Forest Service Beaver Creek Experimental Watershed in the Salt-Verde River Basin of Arizona as an example. The desired objectives of the experimental study and the alternative forest watershed resources management schemes are transformed into an evaluation matrix of alternatives versus criteria array. Analyses of the matrix using the aforementioned techniques result in a complete preference ordering of the feasible alternatives in the cases of ELECTRE LI and CP and a partial ordering when ELECTRE I is used. In addition, some sensitivity analyses have been performed and showed ELECTRE II and CP to be fairly robust with respect to parameter changes, while ELECTRE I being highly sensitive to changes in threshold levels. Overall the three techniques pointed out that 65 percent vegetation cut is the best management scheme, while the next best is shown to be 50 percent vegetation cut.     

Applying voting theory in natural resource management: a case of multiple-criteria group decision support

Voting theory has a lot in common with utility theory, and especially with group decision-making. An expected-utility-maximising strategy exists in voting situations, as well as in decision-making situations. Therefore, it is natural to utilise the achievements of voting theory also in group decision-making. Most voting systems are based on a single criterion or holistic preference information on decision alternatives. However, a voting scheme called multicriteria approval is specially developed for decision-making situations with multiple criteria. This study considers the voting theory from the group decision support point of view and compares it with some other methods applied to similar purposes in natural resource management. A case study is presented, where the approval voting approach is introduced to natural resources planning and tested in a forestry group decision-making process. Applying multicriteria approval method was found to be a potential approach for handling some challenges typical for forestry group decision support. These challenges include (i) utilising ordinal information in the evaluation of decision alternatives, (ii) being readily understandable for and treating equally all the stakeholders in possession of different levels of knowledge on the subject considered, (iii) fast and cheap acquisition of preference information from several stakeholders, and (iv) dealing with multiple criteria.     

Hospital site selection using fuzzy AHP and its derivatives

Environmental managers are commonly faced with sophisticated decisions, such as choosing the location of a new facility subject to multiple conflicting criteria. This paper considers the specific problem of creating a well-distributed network of hospitals that delivers its services to the target population with minimal time, pollution and cost. We develop a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis process that combines Geographical Information System (GIS) analysis with the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP), and use this process to determine the optimum site for a new hospital in the Tehran urban area. The GIS was used to calculate and classify governing criteria, while FAHP was used to evaluate the decision factors and their impacts on alternative sites. Three methods were used to estimate the total weights and priorities of the candidate sites: fuzzy extent analysis, center-of-area defuzzification, and the α-cut method. The three methods yield identical priorities for the five alternatives considered. Fuzzy extent analysis provides less discriminating power, but is simpler to implement and compute than the other two methods. The α-cut method is more complicated, but integrates the uncertainty and overall attitude of the decision-maker. The usefulness of the new hospital site is evaluated by computing an accessibility index for each pixel in the GIS, defined as the ratio of population density to travel time. With the addition of a new hospital at the optimum site, this index improved over about 6.5 percent of the geographical area.     

USING VALUES IN PLANNING WASTEWATER FACILITIES FOR METROPOLITAN SEATTLE1

ABSTRACT: This paper uses the fundamental values of decision makers to guide a long-term wastewater planning process at Seattle Metro, a major utility district. Multiattribute value assessment is used to elicit the objectives of several elected officials and other key decision makers. The results are structured into a fundamental objectives hierarchy and a means-ends objectives network. A set of measures to indicate the performance of planning alternatives in terms of the fundamental objectives is developed. Preliminary value tradeoffs between objectives are elicited from several elected officials. The results of these steps are useful for many aspects of long-term planning: facilitating communication about values and priorities; designing attractive alternatives that are more likely to serve stakeholder interests; identifying information needed to evaluate alternatives; clarifying the relative importance of information about different impacts; providing a basis for quantitative evaluation of the alternatives with multiple objective analysis; and focusing attention on key tradeoffs that will affect the choice of alternatives.     

SELECTING A MULTICRITERION DECISION MAKING TECHNIQUE FOR WATERSHED RESOURCES MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: A method for selecting a most appropriate multicritenon decision making (MCDM) technique for watershed resources management is modeled as a multicriterion problem. The procedure consists of identifying a set of feasible MCDM techniques, and evaluating them with respect to four sets of choice criteria, namely (1) problem related, (2) decision-maker (DM)/analyst related, (3) technique-related, and (4) solution-related criteria. Altogether 15 techniques are evaluated in terms of 24 criteria, forming an evaluation matrix of criteria versus alternative MCDM techniques. The evaluation matrix is then analyzed by means by a composite programming algorithm resulting in a preference ranking of the alternatives. Application of the techniques to a watershed resources management problem illustrates the method throughout the paper. (KEY TERMS: alternative selection; watershed resources management; multicriterion decision making; composite programming.)     

Prioritization of water management for sustainability using hydrologic simulation model and multicriteria decision making techniques

The objective of this study is to develop an alternative evaluation index (AEI) in order to determine the priorities of a range of alternatives using both the hydrological simulation program in FORTRAN (HSPF) and multicriteria decision making (MCDM) techniques. In order to formulate the HSPF model, sensitivity analyses of water quantity (peak discharge and total volume) and quality (BOD peak concentrations and total loads) are conducted and a number of critical parameters were selected. To achieve a more precise simulation, the study watershed is divided into four regions for calibration and verification according to landuse, location, slope, and climate data. All evaluation criteria were selected using the Driver–Pressure–State–Impact–Response (DPSIR) model, a sustainability evaluation concept. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to estimate the weights of the criteria and the effects of water quantity and quality were quantified by HSPF simulation. In addition, AEIs that reflected residents' preferences for management objectives are proposed in order to induce the stakeholder to participate in the decision making process.     

Alternative scenarios to meet the demands of sustainable waste management

This paper analyses different alternatives for solid waste management that can be implemented to enable the targets required by the European Landfill and Packaging and Packaging Waste Directives to be achieved in the Valencian Community, on the east coast of Spain. The methodology applied to evaluate the environmental performance of each alternative is Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The analysis has been performed at two levels; first, the emissions accounted for in the inventory stage have been arranged into impact categories to obtain an indicator for each category; and secondly, the weighting of environmental data to a single unit has been applied. Despite quantitative differences between the results obtained with four alternative impact assessment methods, the same preference ranking has been established: scenarios with energy recovery (1v and 2v) achieve major improvements compared to baseline, with scenario 1v being better than 2v for all impact assessment methods except for the EPS'00 method, which obtains better results for scenario 2v. Sensitivity analysis has been used to test some of the assumptions used in the initial life cycle inventory model but none have a significant effect on the overall results. As a result, the best alternative to the existing waste management system can be identified.     

FLOOD PROOFING DECISIONS WITH UNCERTAIN EVENTS1

ABSTRACT: The addition of flood proofing to other (structural and non-structural) flood damage reduction measures broadens the choice among existing alternatives for decision makers and consequently enables the possibility of improved expected net benefits from an overall flood damage reduction scheme. Planners are interested in more than just expected values of net benefits, however. The inherent riskiness of various alternative plans must be considered as well. Therefore, a partial equilibrium framework is specified for purposes of estimating means and variances of a measure of net benefits from flood proofing. The model is applied to selected communities in the Connecticut River Basin and sample computer results are provided.     

Multicriteria analysis as a tool to investigate compatibility between conservation and development on Salina Island,Aeolian Archipelago,Italy

Several multicriteria evaluation techniques have been developed since the 1970s. The need to compare different territorial policies has justified their introduction into environmental research. These methods are based on the numerical manipulation of heterogeneous information, which varies in terms of reference scale and type of measure (continuous, ordinal, qualitative, binary, etc.). During recent years, diverse investigations have focused on general conditions on Salina, the “green island” of the Aeolian archipelago. Such studies, within an interdisciplinary project, aimed to explore the possibility of implementing conservation strategies that are compatible with human needs, landscape preservation, and sustainable economic development. Three different evaluation techniques are applied, namely multicriteria weighted concordance and discordance analysis and a qualitative procedure. They are used to compare four alternative plans for the socioeconomic development of Salina Island. These plans lie between extreme alternatives: total protection of natural resources and maximizing economic development based on tourism. The plans are compared to each other on the basis of 14 criteria that reflect the socioenvironmental perception of Salina's inhabitants. The approach used in this research seems particularly fruitful because of its flexibility: it offers decision makers the chance to manage heterogeneous data and information that is not easily quantifiable. Such “soft” information helps to evaluate environmental conditions more precisely, and to make a less damaging choice among alternative development plans.     

Applying the Ecosystem Approach to Select Priority Areas for Forest Landscape Restoration in the Yungas, Northwestern Argentina

This paper proposes a method to select forest restoration priority areas consistently with the key principles of the Ecosystem Approach (EA) and the Forest Landscape Restoration (FLR) framework. The methodology is based on the principles shared by the two approaches: acting at ecosystem scale, involving stakeholders, and evaluating alternatives. It proposes the involvement of social actors which have a stake in forest management through multicriteria analysis sessions aimed at identifying the most suitable forest restoration intervention. The method was applied to a study area in the native forests of Northern Argentina (the Yungas). Stakeholders were asked to identify alternative restoration actions, i.e. potential areas implementing FLR. Ten alternative fincas—estates derived from the Spanish land tenure system—differing in relation to ownership, management, land use, land tenure, and size were evaluated. Twenty criteria were selected and classified into four groups: biophysical, social, economic and political. Finca Ledesma was the closest to the economic, social, environmental and political goals, according to the values and views of the actors involved in the decision. This study represented the first attempt to apply EA principles to forest restoration at landscape scale in the Yungas region. The benefits obtained by the application of the method were twofold: on one hand, researchers and local actors were forced to conceive the Yungas as a complex net of rights rather than as a sum of personal interests. On the other hand, the participatory multicriteria approach provided a structured process for collective decision-making in an area where it has never been implemented.     

MULTICRITERION DECISION MAKING FOR FLOOD CONTROL OPERATIONS: THEORY AND APPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Flood control operations are generally complex in nature, as they are often associated with a large quantity of uncertain factors in combination of noncommensurable criteria. It has been found that the use of fuzzy set theory coupled with multicriterion decision making (MCDM) methods is very promising. In this paper, a multicriterion fuzzy recognition model is established for flood control operations. A subjective preference and iterative weights method is proposed for weight assessment. First, an initial solution of criteria weights, which is directly analyzed from the selected alternatives, is obtained by using the proposed fuzzy recognition model. Then, according to their knowledge related to real time flood operations, operators may modify the initial weights if necessary. When the relative membership grades of alternatives belonging to all rankings are fixed, a defuzzification equation is used to calculate the rank feature value vector. Based on the rank feature value vector, one can evaluate the alternative set. Two flood operation cases are provided to illustrate the application of the proposed model. With the incorporation of the operator's knowledge related to flood operations, the proposed model is flexible in giving weights and realizes more practical flood control operations.     

Using triple bottom line metrics and multi-criteria methodology in corporate settings

With the growing importance of environmental sustainability in the corporate sector, businesses are compelled to progress from assessing and benchmarking their environmental impact to making decisions on how to prioritize impact reduction alternatives. Most often, business decisions are driven by financial metrics, but with sustainability improvements becoming a business goal, it is also important to assess metrics from environmental and social spheres; nevertheless, practically and systematically performing such an assessment is challenging. We present an application of a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method that addresses the aforementioned challenges in a corporate setting. Our case study company – one of the largest inland marine freight carriers in the United States – promotes a business culture focused on financially viable, yet socially and environmentally responsible solutions. Thus, we combine life cycle analysis (LCA), financial calculation methods, and corporate surveys to quantify environmental, economic, and social performance measures, respectively. Multiattribute utility theory is integrated with analytic hierarchy processes (AHPs) and fuzzy analysis to create a carefully designed framework for corporations with diverse groups of stakeholders. With company leadership, implementation is feasible and successful at prioritizing alternatives among diverse stakeholders. The process provides a platform for negotiation and promotes discussions on decision drivers. The use of MCDA methodologies promoted the inclusion of a suite of metrics that aligned with the company's sense of social and environmental responsibility, generating an in-depth analysis of the alternatives that factored in other things besides economics. Return-on-investments (ROI) calculations, the typical approach used in the corporate setting, would have required significantly less time and effort from the company, but the results of our MCDA application indicated that inclusion of triple bottom line metrics delve deeper into stakeholder preferences. Thus, our case study company gained a holistic view of the candidate alternatives, in addition to creating a platform for structured discussions about company goals and priorities.     

Slash fire hazard analysis on the Siskiyou National Forest

Potential increase in fire hazard as a result of timber harvesting is a concern of forest managers throughout the United States. Treating fuels can help reduce unacceptable fire hazards. To evaluate alternative fuel treatments, managers need to know their effects on fire hazard. A decision analysis approach to estimating fire hazard in terms of expected burned area was applied to a watershed in the Siskiyou National Forest (Oregon). Three treatment alternatives (do nothing and two levels of yarding unmerchantable material) were evaluated, and the effects of the treatments were projected over a 90-yr period. Initially, the effects of applying a treatment are small. After 50 years of treatment, the most intense alternative can be expected to show almost a 50% reduction in burned area compared to no treatment. The procedure also estimates burned are by fire size and fire intensity classes. Managers may find this useful for estimating expected fire effects associated with a particular fuel treatment regime.     

Collaborative environmental planning in river management: an application of multicriteria decision analysis in the White River Watershed in Vermont

Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) provides a well-established family of decision tools to aid stakeholder groups in arriving at collective decisions. MCDA can also function as a framework for the social learning process, serving as an educational aid in decision problems characterized by a high level of public participation. In this paper, the framework and results of a structured decision process using the outranking MCDA methodology preference ranking organization method of enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE) are presented. PROMETHEE is used to frame multi-stakeholder discussions of river management alternatives for the Upper White River of Central Vermont, in the northeastern United States. Stakeholders met over 10 months to create a shared vision of an ideal river and its services to communities, develop a list of criteria by which to evaluate river management alternatives, and elicit preferences to rank and compare individual and group preferences. The MCDA procedure helped to frame a group process that made stakeholder preferences explicit and substantive discussions about long-term river management possible.     

Visual preference and ecological assessments for designed alternative brownfield rehabilitations

This paper describes an integrative method for quantifying, analyzing, and comparing the effects of alternative rehabilitation approaches with visual preference. The method was applied to a portion of a major industrial area located in southern Italy. Four alternative approaches to rehabilitation (alternative designs) were developed and analyzed. The scenarios consisted of the cleanup of the brownfields plus: (1) the addition of ground cover species; (2) the addition of ground cover species and a few trees randomly distributed; (3) the addition of ground cover species and a few trees in small groups; and (4) the addition of ground cover species and several trees in large groups. The approaches were analyzed and compared to the baseline condition through the use of cost-surface modeling (CSM) and visual preference assessment (VPA). Statistical results showed that alternatives that were more ecologically functional for forest bird species dispersal were also more visually preferable. Some differences were identified based on user groups and location of residence. The results of the study are used to identify implications for enhancing both ecological attributes and visual preferences of rehabilitating landscapes through planning and design.     

Linking linear programming and spatial simulation models to predict landscape effects of forest management alternatives

Forest management planners require analytical tools to assess the effects of alternative strategies on the sometimes disparate benefits from forests such as timber production and wildlife habitat. We assessed the spatial patterns of alternative management strategies by linking two models that were developed for different purposes. We used a linear programming model (Spectrum) to optimize timber harvest schedules, then a simulation model (HARVEST) to project those schedules in a spatially explicit way and produce maps from which the spatial pattern of habitat could be calculated. We demonstrated the power of this approach by evaluating alternative plans developed for a national forest plan revision in Wisconsin, USA. The amount of forest interior habitat was inversely related to the amount of timber cut, and increased under the alternatives compared to the current plan. The amount of edge habitat was positively related to the amount of timber cut, and increased under all alternatives. The amount of mature northern hardwood interior and edge habitat increased for all alternatives, but mature pine habitat area varied. Mature age classes of all forest types increased, and young classes decreased under all alternatives. The average size of patches (defined by age class) generally decreased. These results are consistent with the design goals of each of the alternatives, but reveal that the spatial differences among the alternatives are modest. These complementary models are valuable for quantifying and comparing the spatial effects of alternative management strategies.