长江源区基于坡面尺度的土壤水热过程模拟研究

长江源多年冻土区土壤水热传输过程机理与模拟,是广泛关系到高原生态环境保护恢复和区域水文过程的关键科学问题。因此,以GEOtop模型为研究平台,以长江源不同植被盖度下（裸地、30%、65%和92%）高寒草甸的观测数据为基础,检验模型对土壤水热迁移过程的描述与模拟精度。总体而言,GEOtop模型需要率定的参数较少,从而减少模型模拟的不确定性,提高了模拟精度。对不同植被盖度下土壤温度、水分和实际蒸散发模拟的NSE 系数基本达到08,表明模型能准确模拟高寒生态系统土壤的水热传输过程,可以作为长江源区土壤水热过程的有效模拟工具     

基于DNDC模型的双季稻体系氨挥发损失研究

为了探索长江流域双季稻体系氮肥施用对氨挥发损失的影响，评价Denitrification Decomposition (DNDC)模型对产量和氨挥发拟合的适应性，设计了早稻和晚稻不同氮肥用量田间试验，采用密闭室间歇通气法原位观测氨挥发排放通量，利用DNDC模型进行模拟分析，并运用模拟结果探讨了水稻产量和氨挥发损失与施氮量之间的关系。结果显示，模型能较好模拟双季稻体系水稻产量和氨挥发，早稻、晚稻和双季稻产量模拟值与观测值的相关系数分别为0.994、0.928、0.979，早稻、晚稻和整个双季稻生育期氨挥发模拟值与观测值的相关系数分别为0.994、0.998和0.997，均达到极显著水平。DNDC模型能较好预测因施肥引起的氨挥发排放峰，但在氨挥发通量和排放总量的定量上还需要进一步改进。敏感性指数分析表明，气温是影响作物产量的关键因素，氮肥用量和气温是影响氨挥发的主要因素。DNDC模型在模拟双季稻体系籽粒产量上具有较高的可信度，DNDC模拟和田间观测数据计算的最高产量施氮量分别是420和417 kg·hm^-2。稻田氨挥发损失量与施氮量之间满足二次函数和线性关系，二次函数能更好描述两者之间的关系。为使DNDC更准确的进行估算和应用，有必要获取更翔实的环境资料以减少输入数据的不确定性。     

洞庭湖流域分布式水文模型

流域出口径流观测序列是水文模型参数率定重要依据,不受水文站控制区域的模型应用是水文研究关注点之一。首先根据水文站观测资料建立洞庭湖流域四水控制站之上基于水文响应单元的分布式水文模型,在此基础上结合实验、同质移植和虚拟水库等方法,将分布式水文模型拓展到包含无径流站控制区域的丘陵区间和平原圩垸区,最终实现了洞庭湖全流域水文过程模拟。结果表明:在较完备土壤、地形、土地利用等空间数据支持下,通过合理的流域划分和水文响应单元定义,建立的流域分布式水文模型可以较好地在水文响应单元尺度反应降水发生后蒸散、地表径流、土壤和地下水的响应特征。而基于观测实验及基流分割等方法获取的关键水文过程特征对模型参数优化的认识,可以提高模型参数率定效率,在较少优化迭代运算后既可使月径流模拟的效率系数NSE和确定性系数R²值高于0.81(日过程高于0.62)。借助参数同质移植和虚拟水库解决了区间和圩垸区无控制站区域水文过程模拟。在全流域水文过程的模拟中,基流指数和蒸散比例与实际过程具有较好的一致性。说明相关参数较好地反映了其物理机制,具备在相似气候及下垫面条件区域进行同质移植的基础,圩垸区径流交换采用虚拟水库的处理方式也合理可行。     

A Dynamic model of Cs accumulation by fish of different age classes

A dynamic model of radionuclide accumulation in fish is developed. In the model, the fish population is represented by a set of discrete age classes. Each age class is characterized by a specific growth rate, diet and activity of metabolic processes. The model describes all known types of size effect in the contamination of fish with radiocaesium. The detailed dynamics of ¹³⁷Cs accumulation by fish are demonstrated using the results of the model's application to ichtiofauna in a water body which has a high level of contamination with radiocaesium — namely, the cooling pond of the Chernobyl NPP.     

State-space dynamic model for estimation of radon entry rate, based on Kalman filtering

To predict the radon concentration in a house environment and to understand the role of all factors affecting its behavior, it is necessary to recognize time variation in both air exchange rate and radon entry rate into a house. This paper describes a new approach to the separation of their effects, which effectively allows continuous estimation of both radon entry rate and air exchange rate from simultaneous tracer gas (carbon monoxide) and radon gas measurement data. It is based on a state-space statistical model which permits quick and efficient calculations. Underlying computations are based on (extended) Kalman filtering, whose practical software implementation is easy. Key property is the model's flexibility, so that it can be easily adjusted to handle various artificial regimens of both radon gas and CO gas level manipulation. After introducing the statistical model formally, its performance will be demonstrated on real data from measurements conducted in our experimental, naturally ventilated and unoccupied room. To verify our method, radon entry rate calculated via proposed statistical model was compared with its known reference value. The results from several days of measurement indicated fairly good agreement (up to 5% between reference value radon entry rate and its value calculated continuously via proposed method, in average). Measured radon concentration moved around the level approximately 600 Bq m(-3), whereas the range of air exchange rate was 0.3-0.8 (h(-1)).     

基于改进粒子群算法和元胞自动机的城市扩张模拟——以南京为例

为合理利用多智能体算法解决城市扩张动态模拟问题,基于地理学理论和社会学规律对粒子群算法进行有针对性的改进,提出分段式粒子群算法(SPSO),并结合元胞自动机模拟复杂时空过程的能力,构建出适用于城市扩张模拟的地理元胞自动机SPSO-CA。在SPSO-CA中我们利用多时像的土地利用数据、交通路网数据和地形数据,挖掘出1995~2000年南京城市扩张的土地转换规则。再由此规则实现1995~2008年的南京市城市扩张过程的动态模拟。最后对比SPSO-CA、PSOCA及NULL模型结果得:SPSO-CA总精度86.3%,Kappa系数为0.792,Moran’s I为0.078,PSO-CA总精度83.6%,Kappa系数为0.755,Moran’s I为0.054,NULL模型总精度81.9%,Kappa系数为0.741,真实的Moran’s I为0.072。这表明无论是总精度还是空间一致性,SPSO-CA都优于PSO-CA和NULL模型,即用SPSO-CA模拟城市扩张是可行的。     

基于DEA模型的区域生态环境建设绩效评价——以江苏省苏州市为例

选取生态系统服务价值、生态绿当量、人均生态足迹赤字和环境质量综合指数作为区域生态环境质量表征指标,借助DEA模型对区域生态环境建设过程中劳动力投入、资金投入、技术投入和资源投入的绩效进行评价,结果表明:(1)苏州市10年来生态环境建设总体而言绩效良好,DEA有效年份占30%,弱有效年份占20%,无效年份占50%,并且无效年份的效率指数都在0.97以上;(2)导致苏州市最近5年生态环境建设DEA无效的原因主要是乔资源投入不足,生态用地成为区域生态环境建设刚性约束;(3)通过调整生态环境建设要素投入比例,各种生态环境指标值都将有所提高,区域生态环境质量也将显著改善;(4)地区生态环境建设绩效下降还受地区人口数量增加、人均生态占用增长、生态环境累积效应影响.最后从促进区域社会经济与生态环境协调发展的角度提出相关建议.     

基于DEA模型的区域生态环境建设绩效评价——以江苏省苏州市为例 

选取生态系统服务价值、生态绿当量、人均生态足迹赤字和环境质量综合指数作为区域生态环境质量表征指标，借助DEA模型对区域生态环境建设过程中劳动力投入、资金投入、技术投入和资源投入的绩效进行评价，结果表明：（1）苏州市10年来生态环境建设总体而言绩效良好，DEA有效年份占30％，弱有效年份占20％，无效年份占50％，并且无效年份的效率指数都在0.97以上；（2）导致苏州市最近5年生态环境建设DEA无效的原因主要是资源投入不足，生态用地成为区域生态环境建设刚性约束；（3）通过调整生态环境建设要素投入比例，各种生态环境指标值都将有所提高，区域生态环境质量也将显著改善；（4）地区生态环境建设绩效下降还受地区人口数量增加、人均生态占用增长、生态环境累积效应影响。最后从促进区域社会经济与生态环境协调发展的角度提出相关建议。     

Comparing environmental product footprint for electronic and electric equipment: a multi-criteria approach

Electronic and electric devices are now applied in most human activities: their diffusion is increasing worldwide; furthermore, most of them are characterized by a high replacement rate due to technological obsolescence. Consequently, environmental problems due to their diffusion are increasing; several aspects are involved from the energy consumption derived from their manufacturing processes and their use phases to their end-of-life (EOL) management. Such legislative (e.g. the European Energy Efficiency directive for household appliances) or voluntary interventions (e.g. based on the ISO standards) have been introduced for such devices: the aim is to incorporate environmental considerations in product design and manufacturing in order to benefit the environment. Some attempts are focusing on defining standardized models for the overall lifecycle including waste management. The aim of this paper is to introduce a reference model for comparing environmental product footprint of electrical and electronic equipment (EEE). All life cycles of EEE will be evaluated: a specific focus is on the EOL management process as their waste management represents a complex problem for developed and developing countries. A multi-criteria decision-making model will be developed based on the well-known analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method: differently from traditional AHP applications, an absolute model has been proposed in order to compare EEE effectively from an environmental point of view. A case study validation regarding large household appliances is proposed.     

我国环境治理投资效率评价及其关键影响因素

在系统地归纳了环境治理投资效率的相关研究的基础上,依据构建评价指标体系的原则,以环境治理投资总额作为投入指标,以及环境治理投资在水、气、固体等方面控制绩效作为产出,建立我国环境治理投资效率的评价指标体系,构建基于DEA方法的我国环境治理投资效率评价模型,再以环境治理投资效率为母因素,以各评价指标为环境治理投资效率的影响因素,利用灰色关联度分析方法,构建我国环境治理投资效率的关键影响因素分析模型,通过《中国环境统计年鉴2010》和《中国统计年鉴2010》收集2009年我国各省市（自治区）投入产出数据,得到我国各省市的环境治理投资效率及其关键影响因素,证实控制关键因素--环境治理投资总额,能够有效地提高环境治理投资效率     

Data driven modelling of vertical atmospheric radiation

In the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) there exists a unique set of meteorological measurements consisting of the values of vertical atmospheric levels of beta and gamma radiation. In this paper a stochastic data-driven model based on nonlinear regression and on nonhomogeneous Poisson process is suggested. In the first part of the paper, growth curves were used to establish an appropriate nonlinear regression model. For comparison we considered a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with its intensity based on growth curves. In the second part both approaches were applied to the real data and compared. Computational aspects are briefly discussed as well. The primary goal of this paper is to present an improved understanding of the distribution of environmental radiation as obtained from the measurements of the vertical radioactivity profiles by the radioactivity sonde system.     

川西北高原畜牧业界限温度日期及资源的变化特征

利用川西高原31个气象观测站1961~2012年的观测资料,采用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall突变检测法和Morlet小波分析方法,详细分析了川西北高原畜牧业界限温度0℃初日、5℃终日及0℃初日至5℃终日之间畜牧气候资源的变化特征。结果表明:(1)川西北高原稳定通过0℃初日及5℃终日在区域上有很大差异,主要受海拔高度、纬度的影响。(2)畜牧气候资源的年际变化总体呈增加趋势,但区域变化不均;(3)各要素年代际变化不同,积温在各个年代都比前一年代增加,而日照时数则呈现出一增两减一增的趋势,降水量的年代际变化型式与日照相反,呈现一减两增一减的趋势;(4)各因素突变特征明显,突变的时间主要出现在20世纪80年代,不同因素的突变类型不同;(5)畜牧业气候资源存在明显的周期性变化,各要素变化周期长短不一致,尤其是降水量以4a左右的短周期振荡为主。     

Regional industrial growth and environmental impacts in the Bohai Sea rim region of China: uncertainty in location choice

Regional industrial growth is facing the problems of no control and disorder in rapidly transitioning China, especially in mega-regional areas. These problems have significantly intensified the use of regional resources and the level of environmental stress. The integration of industrial development and the environmental pollution pressure simulation at the mega-regional level must be supported at the planning stage. In this study, a Computational System for Regional Industrial Distribution Simulation and Environmental Impact Assessment (RESEA) that combines a multi-nominal logit model and uncertainty analysis was developed. This system aimed to explore efficient industrial spatial distribution simulations and potential environmental pressures at the mega-regional level. This study also developed an uncertainty analysis framework to identify and apply a bottom-up system with aggregate and sparse data following the basic processes of an HSY algorithm and Global-Formed Regional Sensitivity Analysis, which is capable of considering both input uncertainty and parameter uncertainty. By applying the RESEA system, a process of model estimation and sensitivity analysis was implemented based on historic data from 2002 to 2008 for the Bohai Sea rim region in China. The future industry distribution for the year 2015 was later aggregated based on the chosen sizes and locations of newly added industrial plants. Finally, the pollution loads of surface water into every sub-region were calculated, and the potential environmental impacts of different strategies were discussed.     

The dynamics of grazed woodlands in southwest Queensland, Australia and their effect on greenhouse gas emissions.

This study outlines the development of an approach to evaluate the sources, sinks, and magnitudes of greenhouse gas emissions from a grazed semiarid rangeland dominated by mulga (Acacia aneura) and how these emissions may be altered by changes in management. This paper describes the modification of an existing pasture production model (GRASP) to include a gas emission component and a dynamic tree growth and population model. An exploratory study was completed to investigate the likely impact of changes in burning practices and stock management on emissions. This study indicates that there is a fundamental conflict between maintaining agricultural productivity and reducing greenhouse gas emissions on a given unit of land. Greater agricultural productivity is allied with the system being an emissions source while production declines and the system becomes a net emissions sink as mulga density increases. Effective management for sheep production results in the system acting as a net source (approximately 60-200 kg CO2 equivalents/ha/year). The magnitude of the source depends on the management strategies used to maintain the productivity of the system and is largely determined by starting density and average density of the mulga over the simulation period. Prior to European settlement, it is believed that the mulga lands were burnt almost annually. Simulations indicate that such a management approach results in the system acting as a small net sink with an average net absorption of greenhouse gases of 14 kg CO2 equivalents/ha/year through minimal growth of mulga stands. In contrast, the suppression of fire and the introduction of grazing results in thickening of mulga stands and the system can act as a significant net sink absorbing an average of 1000 kg CO2 equivalents/ha/year. Although dense mulga will render the land largely useless for grazing, land in this region is relatively inexpensive and could possibly be developed as a cost-effective carbon offset for greenhouse gas emissions elsewhere. These results also provide support for the hypothesis that changes in land management, and particularly, suppression of fire is chiefly responsible for the observed increases in mulga density over the past century.     

气候变化对西苕溪流域未来洪水影响研究——Ⅰ.VIC模型评估

可变下渗能力模型VIC是基于单元网格的分布式水文模型,易于与气候模式进行耦合,从而揭示气候变化对水循环的复杂影响,为分析气候变化情景下流域洪水的响应特征提供技术支撑。作为研究工作的第一步,构建了基于5 km×5 km网格分辨率的西苕溪流域VIC径流模拟模型。利用流域出口横塘村水文观测站1990~2000年日流量观测数据并结合西苕溪流域的汇流特点,采用Dag Lohmann汇流模型进行参数率定和验证。模拟结果表明：VIC模型对西苕溪流域日、年径流量的模拟值与观测值吻合良好,率定期和验证期的多年平均年径流相对误差Er分别为077%和343%,模拟日或月流量的确定性系数和Nash Suttcliffe系数都大于075,特别是对洪水年汛期流量过程的模拟,确定性系数均大于080,模型对洪水的模拟可信性较高     

Integrated and comprehensive estimation of greenhouse gas emissions from land systems

Exchanges of carbon and nitrogen between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems involve a complex set of interactions affected by both natural and management processes. Understanding these processes is important for managing ecosystem productivity and sustainability. Management processes also affect the net outcome of exchanges of greenhouse gases between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. In developing a national carbon accounting system (NCAS) for Australia to account for emissions and removal of greenhouse gases to and from the atmosphere, a carbon:nitrogen mass balance ecosystem model (FullCAM) was developed. The FullCAM model is a hybrid of empirical and process modelling. The approach enables application to a wide range of natural resource management issues, because it is at land-management-relevant spatial and temporal resolution and captures the main process and management drivers. The scenario-prediction capability can be used to determine the emissions consequences of different management activities. Because, in Australia, emissions of greenhouse gases are closely related to the retention of dead organic matter and the availability of nitrogen for plant growth, the carbon and nitrogen cycling as modelled are good indicators of ecosystem productivity and condition. The NCAS also emphasizes the advantages of a comprehensive and integrated approach to developing a continental scale ecosystem-modelling system that has relevance both to estimation of greenhouse gas emissions and sustainable management of natural resources.     

Modelling treated waste disposal in Port Phillip Bay and Bass Strait biogeochemical and physical removal.

Large cities, such as Melbourne, generate substantial quantities of sewage, which, after treatment, must be disposed. Melbourne's sewage is disposed via two routes, that treated at the Western Treatment Plant (WTP) is discharged in enclosed Port Phillip Bay, while the Boags Rock outfall empties into the exposed Bass Strait. In Port Phillip Bay biogeochemical processes control the fate of waste, while in the Bass Strait physical mixing rapidly disperses the waste. These different processes require very different ecosystem models. Port Phillip Bay requires detailed modelling of water-column and in-sediment processes, in particular detailed models of recycling processes, and also modelling of benthos-water-column interactions. Interaction of these components gives the model a nonlinear response to change in load. The Bass Strait ecosystem model is simple with no modelling of the sediment and limited modelling of water-column recycling. This model's behaviour is largely controlled by the physical environment.     

基于SLEUTH模型的无锡市区土地利用变化情景模拟

以城市化快速发展和生态环境压力突出的无锡市区为研究区,综合集成地形图、交通图以及1980、1995和2000年TM/ETM土地利用遥感解译资料,应用SLEUTH元胞自动机模型对土地利用变化过程进行情景模拟,揭示不同土地保护强度下的土地利用变化趋势。研究结果：SLEUTH模型首先对过去土地利用变化实现了动态模拟,模拟精度较高;在模拟形成的未来土地利用变化情景中,情景Ⅰ是基于维持现状土地利用保护强度基本不变的假设,城镇用地将迅速扩张,并占用大量水田和旱地,城镇扩张形态以边缘增长为主;情景Ⅱ则将水田保护强度提高50%,旱地提高12%,林草地提高50%,则城镇用地迅速扩张及耕地大量被占用的趋势得到有效控制;研究也进一步证明了SLEUTH模型在我国快速城市化背景下土地利用变化模拟和预测中的适用性。     

Performance assessment studies of models for water flow and radionuclide transport in vegetated soils using lysimeter data

Increasingly the burial of nuclear waste in deep underground repositories is being regarded as a safe long-term solution for disposal. However, to support this safety assessment models of the associated risks are required. An important component of these models is the upward migration of radionuclides from a contaminated water table into arable and pasture crops. A five-year experiment to investigate the processes which control these transfers has been undertaken at Imperial College. Selected data from this experiment were made available to participants of the BIOMOVS II programme in order to allow them to perform blind hydrological and radionuclide transport simulations. The results show the importance of correctly characterising the soil hydrology and indicate that model conceptualisations derived from surface contamination studies may not adequately capture the various processes which influence the upward movement of radionuclides in the vadose zone. These include not only the water movement, but also chemical and biological processes. Finally, the difficulty and importance of a priori parameter selection is highlighted.     

Impacts of climate change on land-use and wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America

Wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is closely linked to climate. A warmer and drier climate, as predicted, will negatively affect the productivity of PPR wetlands and the services they provide. The effect of climate change on wetland productivity, however, will not only depend on natural processes (e.g., evapotranspiration), but also on human responses. Agricultural land use, the predominant use in the PPR, is unlikely to remain static as climate change affects crop yields and prices. Land use in uplands surrounding wetlands will further affect wetland water budgets and hence wetland productivity. The net impact of climate change on wetland productivity will therefore depend on both the direct effects of climate change on wetlands and the indirect effects on upland land use. We examine the effect of climate change and land-use response on semipermanent wetland productivity by combining an economic model of agricultural land-use change with an ecological model of wetland dynamics. Our results suggest that the climate change scenarios evaluated are likely to have profound effects on land use in the North and South Dakota PPR, with wheat displacing other crops and pasture. The combined pressure of land-use and climate change significantly reduces wetland productivity. In a climate scenario with a +4 °C increase in temperature, our model predicts that almost the entire region may lack the wetland productivity necessary to support wetland-dependent species.