Climate Change,Multiple Stressors,and the Decline of Ectotherms

Climate change is believed to be causing declines of ectothermic vertebrates, but there is little evidence that climatic conditions associated with declines have exceeded critical (i.e., acutely lethal) maxima or minima, and most relevant studies are correlative, anecdotal, or short‐term (hours). We conducted an 11‐week factorial experiment to examine the effects of temperature (22 °C or 27 °C), moisture (wet or dry), and atrazine (an herbicide; 0, 4, 40, 400 μg/L exposure as embryos and larvae) on the survival, growth, behavior, and foraging rates of postmetamorphic streamside salamanders (Ambystoma barbouri), a species of conservation concern. The tested climatic conditions were between the critical maxima and minima of streamside salamanders; thus, this experiment quantified the long‐term effects of climate change within the noncritical range of this species. Despite a suite of behavioral adaptations to warm and dry conditions (e.g., burrowing, refuge use, huddling with conspecifics, and a reduction in activity), streamside salamanders exhibited significant loss of mass and significant mortality in all but the cool and moist conditions, which were closest to the climatic conditions in which they are most active in nature. A temperature of 27 °C represented a greater mortality risk than dry conditions; death occurred rapidly at this temperature and more gradually under cool and dry conditions. Foraging decreased under dry conditions, which suggests there were opportunity costs to water conservation. Exposure to the herbicide atrazine additively decreased water‐conserving behaviors, foraging efficiency, mass, and time to death. Hence, the hypothesis that moderate climate change can cause population declines is even more plausible under scenarios with multiple stressors. These results suggest that climate change within the noncritical range of species and pollution may reduce individual performance by altering metabolic demands, hydration, and foraging effort and may facilitate population declines of amphibians and perhaps other ectothermic vertebrates. Cambio Climático, Estresantes Múltiples y la Declinación de Ectotermos     

Progress and challenges in consolidating the management of Amazonian protected areas and indigenous territories

Effective management refers to the ability of a protected area or indigenous territory to meet its objectives, particularly as they relate to the protection of biodiversity and forest cover. Effective management is achieved through a process of consolidation, which among other things requires legally protecting sites, integrating sites into land‐use planning, developing and implementing management and resource‐use plans, and securing long‐term funding to pay for recurrent costs. Effectively managing all protected areas and indigenous territories in the Amazon may be needed to avoid a deforestation tipping point beyond which regional climatic feedbacks and global climate change interact to catalyze irreversible drying and savannization of large areas. At present, protected areas and indigenous territories cover 45.5% (3.55 million km²) of the Amazon, most of the 60–70% forest cover required to maintain hydrologic and climatic function. Three independent evaluations of a long‐term large‐scale philanthropic initiative in the Amazon yielded insights into the challenges and advances toward achieving effective management of protected areas and indigenous territories. Over the life of the initiative, management of sites has improved considerably, particularly with respect to management planning and capacity building, but few sites are effectively managed and many lack sufficient long‐term financing, adequate governance, support of nongovernmental organizations, and the means to withstand economic pressures. The time and money required to complete consolidation is still poorly understood, but it is clear that philanthropic funding is critical so long as essential funding needs are not met by governments and other sources, which could be on the order of decades. Despite challenges, it is encouraging that legal protection has expanded greatly and management of sites is improving steadily. Management of protected areas in other developing countries could be informed by improvements that have occurred in Amazonian countries.     

1982-2006年华北植被覆盖变化及其与气候变化的关系

利用1982-2006年GIMMSNDVI数据反映华北地区植被覆盖变化状况,结合1982--2006年该地区85个气象站点的气温和降水数据,分别从年际变化、季节变化和月变化三个时间尺度分析华北地区植被覆盖变化及其与气候变化的关系。结果表明,从年际变化来看,华北植被变化与气温变化关系较与降水关系密切;从季节变化来看,华北地区植被生长在不同季节对水热条件变化的响应不同,春季和秋季植被生长与气温的关系较与降水的关系密切,而夏季植被生长主要受降水的影响;从月变化来看,4月和5月植被变化受气温变化影响较明显,一定程度上说明4月和5月植被生长的NDVI值增加可能是由于气候变暖引起的植被生长季提前产生的;6-9月植被生长与前2个月降水变化关系密切,说明植被生长对降水变化具有一定的滞后性。     

Use of Acoustic Tools to Reveal Otherwise Cryptic Responses of Forest Elephants to Oil Exploration

Abstract: Most evaluations of the effects of human activities on wild animals have focused on estimating changes in abundance and distribution of threatened species; however, ecosystem disturbances also affect aspects of animal behavior such as short‐term movement, activity budgets, and reproduction. It may take a long time for changes in behavior to manifest as changes in abundance or distribution. Therefore, it is important to have methods with which to detect short‐term behavioral responses to human activity. We used continuous acoustic and seismic monitoring to evaluate the short‐term effects of seismic prospecting for oil on forest elephants (Loxodonta cyclotis) in Gabon, Central Africa. We monitored changes in elephant abundance and activity as a function of the frequency and intensity of acoustic and seismic signals from dynamite detonation and human activity. Elephants did not flee the area being explored; the relative number of elephants increased in a seasonal pattern typical of elsewhere in the ecosystem. In the exploration area, however, they became more nocturnal. Neither the intensity nor the frequency of dynamite blasts affected the frequency of calling or the daily pattern of elephant activity. Nevertheless, the shift of activity to nocturnal hours became more pronounced as human activity neared each monitored area of forest. This change in activity pattern and its likely causes would not have been detected through standard monitoring methods, which are not sensitive to behavioral changes over short time scales (e.g., dung transects, point counts) or cover a limited area (e.g., camera traps). Simultaneous acoustic monitoring of animal communication, human, and environmental sounds allows the documentation of short‐term behavioral changes in response to human disturbance.     

Defining and modelling the coastal zone affected by the Po river (Italy)

One of the most important sources of pollution in coastal zones (CZ) is certainly that one produced by human activities in the associated river basin. Understanding the linkage between water quality in CZ and river catchments is important in order to better assess CZ processes and to evaluate different management options aimed at improving the coastal ecosystem state. CZ water quality targets as identified by the Water Framework Directive (EC 2000/60) require an accurate study of the effects of pollutant loads coming from river discharge.In order to evaluate the impacts of human activities in river catchments on the associated coastal zone, a sound definition for this geographic area is needed. Many definitions for this area have been proposed in different contexts. The definition is generally built upon a particular goal, and is henceforth highly variable according to the different purposes. In this paper a general methodology allowing to discern those areas of the sea that are directly influenced by fluvial discharge is presented. The methodology is based on the variation pattern of sea water characteristics, and provides a numerical evaluation of this influence. In particular an analysis based on salinity as tracer, results in a sound definition of this area. The methodology has been applied on the case study of the Po river. Due to the significant nutrient loads discharged by the river, the CZ associated with Po is affected by severe eutrophication phenomena that have important consequences on the ecosystem and on the socio-economy of the area.In order to study the impacts of nutrients loads carried by the river, a water quality model (WASP6) has been implemented. The model simulates the seasonal variability of nutrient concentrations, phytoplankton biomass and dissolved oxygen. Using the CZ model is possible to compare the effects of variations of nutrient loads on the biochemical (short term) and ecological (long term) quality of the coastal environment. This is accomplished by feeding nutrients loads forecasted for different scenarios by the catchment model (MONERIS) as forcing functions to the CZ model. This way the effect of the different catchment management scenarios are propagated to the CZ model, and the trophic conditions of the coastal ecosystem evaluated using TRIX.This study has been developed in the context of the European project EUROCAT.     

Long-term fire frequency not linked to prehistoric occupations in northern Swedish boreal forest

Knowledge of past fire regimes is crucial for understanding the changes in fire frequency that are likely to occur during the coming decades as a result of global warming and land-use change. This is a key issue for the sustainable management of forest biodiversity because fire regimes may be controlled by vegetation, human activities, and/or climate. The present paper aims to reconstruct the pattern of fire frequency over the Holocene at three sites located in the same region in the northern Swedish boreal forest. The fire regime is reconstructed from sedimentary charcoal analysis of small lakes or ponds. This method allows fire events to be characterized, after detrending the charcoal influx series, and allows estimation of the time elapsed between fires. The long-term fire regime, in terms of fire-free intervals, can thus be elucidated. At the three sites, the mean fire-free intervals through the Holocene were long and of similar magnitude (approximately 320 years). This similarity suggests that the ecological processes controlling fire ignition and spread were the same. At the three sites, the intervals were shorter before 8600 cal yr BP (calibrated years before present), between 7500 and 4500 cal yr BP, and after 2500 cal yr BP. Geomorphological and vegetation factors cannot explain the observed change, because the three sites are located in the same large ecological region characterized by Pinus sylvestris-Ericaceae mesic forests, established on morainic deposits at the same elevation. Archaeological chronologies also do not match the fire chronologies. A climatic interpretation is therefore the most likely explanation of the long-term regional pattern of fire. Although recent human activities between the 18th and the 20th centuries have clearly affected the fire regime, the dominant factor controlling it for 10000 years in northern Sweden has probably been climatic.     

An improved user-based beach climate index

In many coastal resort areas of the world, it is likely that optimal climatic conditions for beach use might occur outside the peak of the tourist season. Investigation of this issue together with associated publicity might help to spread the tourism load and hence reduce undesirable social and environmental effects of extreme seasonality in tourist demand. For this to take place, better knowledge of beach user preferences in terms of climate and bathing water temperature is required. Questionnaire surveys were carried out in Wales, Malta and Turkey to establish the preferences of north European beach users for thermal sensation and bathing water temperature, plus priority levels for other climatic attributes. A user-based beach climate index based on these preferences and priorities was formulated. Linkage was made between the user-generated ratings for various climatic conditions and published climate data to evaluate most major Euro-Mediterranean/Black Sea and a range of other beach tourism areas on a month-by-month basis. Results showed excessively hot thermal sensation in many southern and eastern Mediterranean coastal destinations during July and August, the present peak of the beach tourism season. Highest preference was given to water temperatures rather lower than those found in these areas during late summer. Many long haul coastal destinations popular with north European visitors had similar unpleasant thermal sensations over several months. Uncertainties and deficiencies still exist with the system, but from the point of view of north European beach users the final scores generated in this study may be regarded as good approximations of the quality of resort area climates for sedentary beach use.     

长白山区沟谷乌拉苔草Carex meyeriana沼泽湿地气候效应

通过对长白山区沟谷沼泽典型乌拉苔草湿地土壤温度、乌拉苔草群落相对湿度、叶片温度、风速、光量子通量密度以及蒸腾速率的日变化和蒸腾速率的季节变化的研究,初步揭示沟谷乌拉苔草沼泽湿地的气候效应。结果表明长白山沟谷沼泽湿地具有三江平原沼泽同样的冷湿效应。土壤化通时间比三江平原化通时间提前1个多月,蒸腾速率日变化不同季节趋势基本一致,不同层次叶片的蒸腾速率日变化趋势基本一致,最大值在7至8月份蒸腾速率(H2O)达到100~140 mol.m-2.s-1。光量子通量密度与温度成正比,与湿度成反比,大气温度日变化和叶片温度日变化趋势基本相同,相对湿度的日变化趋势和大气温度的变化趋势正好相反,和光量子通量密度的变化趋势相反。沟谷湿地的同样具有小气候效应。     

Windows of change: temporal scale of analysis is decisive to detect ecosystem responses to climate change

Long-term ecological research has become a cornerstone of the scientific endeavour to better understand ecosystem responses to environmental change. This paper provides a perspective on how such research could be advanced. It emphasizes that a profound understanding of the mechanisms underlying these responses requires that records of ecologic processes be not only sufficiently long, but also collected at an appropriate temporal resolution. We base our argument on an overview of studies of climate impacts in limnic and marine ecosystems, suggesting that lakes and oceans respond to (short-term) weather conditions during critical time windows in the year. The observed response patterns are often time-lagged or driven by the crossing of thresholds in weather-related variables (such as water temperature and thermal stratification intensity). It becomes clear from the previous studies that average annual, seasonal or monthly climate data often fall short of characterizing the thermal dynamics that most organisms respond to. To illustrate such literature-based evidence using a concrete example, we compare 2?years of water temperature data from Müggelsee (Berlin, Germany) at multiple temporal scales (from hours to years). This comparison underlines the pitfalls of analysing data at resolutions not high enough to detect critical differences in environmental forcing. Current science initiatives that aim at improving the temporal resolution of long-term observatory data in aquatic systems will help to identify adequate timescales of analysis necessary for the understanding of ecosystem responses to climate change.     

大气非均相反应及其环境效应

大气颗粒物是地球大气的重要组成成分之一,以全球气候和区域环境质量具有重要影响.由于大气颗粒物具有区域牲强、寿命较短和组成多样且不均匀等特点,使得其气候和环境效应具有相当大的不确定性,而颗粒物表面发生的非均相反应,一方面可改变痕量气体的源汇平衡,另一方面会改变颗粒物本身的表面组成、形貌和与之相关的吸湿性和光学性质,从而进...     

Sampling variability and estimates of density dependence: a composite-likelihood approach

It is well known that sampling variability, if not properly taken into account, affects various ecologically important analyses. Statistical inference for stochastic population dynamics models is difficult when, in addition to the process error, there is also sampling error. The standard maximum-likelihood approach suffers from large computational burden. In this paper, I discuss an application of the composite-likelihood method for estimation of the parameters of the Gompertz model in the presence of sampling variability. The main advantage of the method of composite likelihood is that it reduces the computational burden substantially with little loss of statistical efficiency. Missing observations are a common problem with many ecological time series. The method of composite likelihood can accommodate missing observations in a straightforward fashion. Environmental conditions also affect the parameters of stochastic population dynamics models. This method is shown to handle such nonstationary population dynamics processes as well. Many ecological time series are short, and statistical inferences based on such short time series tend to be less precise. However, spatial replications of short time series provide an opportunity to increase the effective sample size. Application of likelihood-based methods for spatial time-series data for population dynamics models is computationally prohibitive. The method of composite likelihood is shown to have significantly less computational burden, making it possible to analyze large spatial time-series data. After discussing the methodology in general terms, I illustrate its use by analyzing a time series of counts of American Redstart (Setophaga ruticilla) from the Breeding Bird Survey data, San Joaquin kit fox (Vulpes macrotis mutica) population abundance data, and spatial time series of Bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) redds count data.     

Cycle annuel du phytoplancton et de la production primaire dans les mers tropicales

In this review, tropical seas are limited geographically by a minimum surface temperature of 22°C throughout the year. The relevant literature consists of nearly a hundred references, corresponding to about 45 stations or areas; most of these are neritic or subject to land mass or island mass effects; few studies have been made in both oceanic and neritic waters of the Pacific Ocean. In neritic waters, as a rule, an annual cycle of species composition and intensity of primary production is observed: seasonal variations are related to hydrography (currents, upwelling) or climate (winds, rains, monsoons); some cases reported are doubtful due to insufficient or only qualitative data; so far, not a single example can serve as a proof for the absence of an annual cycle. Oceanic data are much too meagre to allow a generalization to be drawn; seasonal, hydrographic, and climatic changes must often also be taken into account; in regions of permanent stratification, productivity can be expected to remain at a low and continuous level throughout the year, but direct evidence of this is still lacking. In temperate and cold waters, seasons are of world-wide significance due to changes in the relation between euphotic and mixing layers' depths, i.e., in availability of light and nutrients for phytoplankton growth; thus general models of annual cycles can be described. In tropical seas, on the other hand, seasons are only regional and ecological factors can act in opposite ways according to time and space, so that no world-wide picture can be worked out.     

A typology of time‐scale mismatches and behavioral interventions to diagnose and solve conservation problems

Ecological systems often operate on time scales significantly longer or shorter than the time scales typical of human decision making, which causes substantial difficulty for conservation and management in socioecological systems. For example, invasive species may move faster than humans can diagnose problems and initiate solutions, and climate systems may exhibit long‐term inertia and short‐term fluctuations that obscure learning about the efficacy of management efforts in many ecological systems. We adopted a management‐decision framework that distinguishes decision makers within public institutions from individual actors within the social system, calls attention to the ways socioecological systems respond to decision makers’ actions, and notes institutional learning that accrues from observing these responses. We used this framework, along with insights from bedeviling conservation problems, to create a typology that identifies problematic time‐scale mismatches occurring between individual decision makers in public institutions and between individual actors in the social or ecological system. We also considered solutions that involve modifying human perception and behavior at the individual level as a means of resolving these problematic mismatches. The potential solutions are derived from the behavioral economics and psychology literature on temporal challenges in decision making, such as the human tendency to discount future outcomes at irrationally high rates. These solutions range from framing environmental decisions to enhance the salience of long‐term consequences, to using structured decision processes that make time scales of actions and consequences more explicit, to structural solutions aimed at altering the consequences of short‐sighted behavior to make it less appealing. Additional application of these tools and long‐term evaluation measures that assess not just behavioral changes but also associated changes in ecological systems are needed.     

Effects of temperature variation on TSD in turtle (C. picta) populations

We formulate a two-sex model of temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) for a freshwater turtle (C. picta) population. The aim is to understand how environmental temperature variations and nest heat conduction properties affect the long term dynamics of the population. This is a key to understanding how global temperature changes may affect their survival. With stochastic inputs of ambient temperature and solar radiation, the model uses the heat equation to determine the temperature in the egg layer in the nest; in turn, this determines the sex ratio in the egg clutch using a variable degree-day model. Finally, a nonlinear Leslie type, stage-based, two-sex model, is used to determine the long term male and female populations. A two-sex model is required because of different development rates for males and females. The model is flexible enough to enable other researchers to examine the effects of temperature variation variations on other species with TSD, e.g., crocodilians, reptilians, as well as other turtle species. It can be adapted to study effects of nest location, soil type, rain events, different incubation periods, and density effects, for example, the dependence of the mating function on the ratio of males to females and each’s contribution to the sex of hatchlings. Modifications can be easily made to fit a specific life history traits. The model is a beginning step in understanding the long term, high fitness shown by many reptile species with TSD, and it may suggest to experimentalists what data may be relevant to these issues; it can also be useful to wildlife managers in developing strategies for intervention if needed. Among the principal findings are that temperature variability and detailed nest heat conduction properties may buffer projected negative effects on a population.     

河岸缓冲带对氮磷的截留转化及其生态恢复研究进展

河岸缓冲带是河岸生态系统的重要组成部分,对农业非点源污染物起到有效的截留转化作用。对河岸缓冲带的定义、生态结构特性和功能,河岸缓冲带对氮和磷的截留转化作用以及河岸缓冲带的生态修复现状进行了综合评述。结果表明：草地和森林类型河岸缓冲带均能有效地控制氮和磷向水体中迁移;河岸缓冲带的宽度、水文特征、土壤性质、季节变化以及人为活动等是影响其截留效率的因素;加强退化河岸缓冲带的恢复重建工程,可以保证河岸生态系统的健康。针对目前研究中的不足,提出今后的研究方向,认为应进行长期的大尺度的野外实践研究,并从生态学的角度出发,建立合理的河岸缓冲带健康指标,为退化河岸缓冲带恢复重建提供科学依据。     

Soil landscape constraint mapping for coastal land use planning using geographic information system

The aim of the study was to delineate soil landscape constraints to various land uses for urban and regional planning in the coastal areas of New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Soil landscape units mapped at 1:100,000 or coarser were sub-divided into component facets using advanced terrain modelling techniques in a geographic information system (GIS). The output facet grids were further overlain and linked with relevant GIS layers and soil databases to derive soil landscape constraint ratings for various land use purposes such as residential development, cropping and grazing. The constraint ratings for a specific land use were calculated based on objective and rule-based assessments of soil and landscape features such as engineering hazards, intrinsic fertility, drainage and other parameters. A series of soil landscape constraint maps which portray specific land use capability have been produced for the NSW coast. The methodology developed in this study has been demonstrated to be efficient in delineating soil landscape constraints and there is over 90% agreement between the model outputs and the assessment by soil surveyors with local knowledge. The output maps show levels of unprecedented detail of soil and landscape constraint for the coast of NSW and can be readily interpreted by land use planners and land managers for sustainable land use decision making practices.     

Long-term forest management and timely transfer of carbon into wood products help reduce atmospheric carbon

In their efforts to deal with global climate change, scientists and governments have given much attention to the carbon emissions associated with fossil fuels and to strategies for reducing their use. While it is very important to burn less fossil fuel and to employ alternative energy sources, other carbon-reduction options must also be considered. Given that forests comprise a large portion of the global landbase and that they play a very significant role in the global carbon cycle, it is logical to examine how forest management practices could effect reductions in carbon emissions. Many papers that discuss forest carbon sinks or sources refer only to the short term (<20 years). This paper focuses on the sustainable carbon storage contributions of a forest over the long term. This paper explains that long-term carbon storage and reduced carbon fluctuation can be achieved by a combination of improved forest management and efficient transfer of carbon into wood products. Here we show how three different forest management scenarios affect the overall carbon storage capacity of forest and wood products combined over the long term. We used a timber supply model and scenario analysis to predict forest carbon and other resource conditions over time in the Prince George Forest District, a 3.4-million-ha landbase in northern British Columbia. We found that the high-harvest scenario stores 3% more carbon than the low-harvest scenario and 27% (120 million tonnes) more carbon than the no-harvest scenario even though only 1.2-million ha is in timber harvesting landbase. Our results tell us that forest management practices that maintain and increase forest area, reduce natural disturbances in the forest, improve forest conditions, and ensure the appropriate and timely transfer of carbon into wood products lead to increasing overall carbon storage, thereby reducing carbon in the atmosphere.     

Testing the robustness of primary production models in shallow coastal areas: a case study

In this paper we investigate the robustness of a dynamic model, which describes the dynamic of the seagrass Zostera marina, with respect to the inter-annual variability of the two main forcing functions of primary production models in eutrophicated environments. The model was previously applied to simulate the seasonal evolution of this species in the Lagoon of Venice during a specific year and calibrated against time series of field data. In the this paper, we present and discuss the results which were obtained by forcing the model using time series of site-specific daily values concerning the solar radiation intensity and water temperature. The latter was estimated by means of a regression model, whose input variable was a site-specific time series of the air temperature. The regression model was calibrated using a year-long time series of hourly observations. The Z. marina model was first partially recalibrated against the same data set that was used in the original paper. Subsequently, the model was forced using a 7-year-long time series of the driving functions, in order to check the reliability of its long-term predictions. Even though the calibration gave satisfactory results, the multi-annual trends of the output variables were found to be in contrast with the observed evolution of the seagrass biomasses. Since detailed information about the air temperature and solar radiation are often available, these findings suggest that the testing of the ecological consistency of the evolution of primary production models in the long term would provide additional confidence in their results, particularly in those cases in which the scarcity of field data does not allow one to perform a formal corroboration/validation of these models.