Habitat fragmentation lowers survival of a tropical forest bird.

Population ecology research has long been focused on linking environmental features with the viability of populations. The majority of this work has largely been carried out in temperate systems and, until recently, has examined the effects of habitat fragmentation on survival. In contrast, we looked at the effect of forest fragmentation on apparent survival of individuals of the White-ruffed Manakin (Corapipo altera) in southern Costa Rica. Survival and recapture rates were estimated using mark-recapture analyses, based on capture histories from 1993 to 2006. We sampled four forest patches ranging in size from 0.9 to 25 ha, and four sites in the larger 227-ha Las Cruces Biological Station Forest Reserve (LCBSFR). We found a significant difference in annual adult apparent survival rates for individuals marked and recaptured in forest fragments vs. individuals marked and recaptured in the larger LCBSFR. Contrary to our expectation, survival and recapture probabilities did not differ between male and female manakins. Also, there was no support for the existence of annual variation in survival within each study site. Our results suggest that forest fragmentation is likely having an effect on population dynamics for the White-ruffed Manakin in this landscape. Therefore, populations that appear to be persisting in fragmented landscapes might still be at risk of local extinction, and conservation action for tropical birds should be aimed at identifying and reducing sources of adult mortality. Future studies in fragmentation effects on reproductive success and survival, across broad geographical scales, will be needed before it is possible to achieve a clear understanding of the effects of habitat fragmentation on populations for both tropical and temperate regions.     

N fertilization effects on denitrification and N cycling in an aggrading forest.

We investigated N cycling and denitrification rates following five years of N and dolomite amendments to whole-tree harvested forest plots at the long-term soil productivity experiment in the Fernow Experimental Forest in West Virginia, USA. We hypothesized that changes in soil chemistry and nutrient cycling induced by N fertilization would increase denitrification rates and the N2O:N2 ratio. Soils from the fertilized plots had a lower pH (2.96) than control plots (3.22) and plots that received fertilizer and dolomite (3.41). There were no significant differences in soil %C or %N between treatments. Chloroform-labile microbial biomass carbon was lower in fertilized plots compared to control plots, though this trend was not significant. Extractable soil NO3- was elevated in fertilized plots on each sample date. Soil-extractable NH4+, NO3-, pH, microbial biomass carbon, and %C varied significantly by sample date suggesting important seasonal patterns in soil chemistry and N cycling. In particular, the steep decline in extractable NH4+ during the growing season is consistent with the high N demands of a regenerating forest. Net N mineralization and nitrification also varied by date but were not affected by the fertilization and dolomite treatments. In a laboratory experiment, denitrification was stimulated by NO3- additions in soils collected from all field plots, but this effect was stronger in soils from the unfertilized control plots, suggesting that chronic N fertilization has partially alleviated a NO3- limitation on denitrification rates. Dextrose stimulated denitrification only in the whole-tree-harvest soils. Denitrification enzyme activity varied by sample date and was elevated in fertilized plots for soil collected in July 2000 and June 2001. There were no detectable treatment effects on N2O or N2 flux from soils under anaerobic conditions, though there was strong temporal variation. These results suggest that whole-tree harvesting has altered the N status of these soils so they are less prone to N saturation than more mature forests. It is likely that N losses associated with the initial harvest and high N demand by aggrading vegetation is minimizing, at least temporarily, the amount of inorganic N available for nitrification and denitrification, even in the fertilized plots in this experiment.     

The impact of fragmentation and density regulation on forest succession in the Atlantic rain forest

The Atlantic Rain Forest, an important biodiversity hot spot, has faced severe habitat loss since the last century which has resulted in a highly fragmented landscape with a large number of small forest patches (<100 ha). For conservation planning it is essential to understand how current and future forest regeneration depends on ecological processes, fragment size and the connection to the regional seed pool. We have investigated the following questions by applying the forest growth simulation model FORMIND to the situation of the Atlantic Forest in the state of São Paulo, SE Brazil: (1) which set of parameters describing the local regeneration and level of density regulation can reproduce the biomass distribution and stem density of an old growth forest in a reserve? (2) Which additional processes apart from those describing the dynamics of an old growth forest, drive forest succession of small isolated fragments? (3) Which role does external seed input play during succession? Therefore, more than 300 tree species have been classified into nine plant functional types (PFTs), which are characterized by maximum potential height and shade tolerance. We differentiate between two seed dispersal modes: (i) local dispersal, i.e. all seedlings originated from fertile trees within the simulated area and (ii) external seed rain. Local seed dispersal has been parameterized following the pattern oriented approach, using biomass estimates of old growth forest. We have found that moderate density regulation is essential to achieve coexistence for a broad range of regeneration parameters. Considering the expected uncertainty and variability in the regeneration processes it is important that the forest dynamics are robust to variations in the regeneration parameters. Furthermore, edge effects such as increased mortality at the border and external seed rain have been necessary to reproduce the patterns for small isolated fragments. Overall, simulated biomass is much lower in the fragments compared to the continuous forest, whereas shade tolerant species are affected most strongly by fragmentation. Our simulations can supplement empirical studies by extrapolating local knowledge on edge effects of fragments to larger temporal and spatial scales. In particular our results show the importance of external seed rain and therefore highlight the importance of structural connectivity between regenerating fragments and mature forest stands.     

Rain forest fragmentation and the proliferation of successional trees

The effects of habitat fragmentation on diverse tropical tree communities are poorly understood. Over a 20-year period we monitored the density of 52 tree species in nine predominantly successional genera (Annona, Bellucia, Cecropia, Croton, Goupia, Jacaranda, Miconia, Pourouma, Vismia) in fragmented and continuous Amazonian forests. We also evaluated the relative importance of soil, topographic, forest dynamic, and landscape variables in explaining the abundance and species composition of successional trees. Data were collected within 66 permanent 1-ha plots within a large (approximately 1000 km2) experimental landscape, with forest fragments ranging from 1 to 100 ha in area. Prior to forest fragmentation, successional trees were uncommon, typically comprising 2-3% of all trees (> or =10 cm diameter at breast height [1.3 m above the ground surface]) in each plot. Following fragmentation, the density and basal area of successional trees increased rapidly. By 13-17 years after fragmentation, successional trees had tripled in abundance in fragment and edge plots and constituted more than a quarter of all trees in some plots. Fragment age had strong, positive effects on the density and basal area of successional trees, with no indication of a plateau in these variables, suggesting that successional species could become even more abundant in fragments over time. Nonetheless, the 52 species differed greatly in their responses to fragmentation and forest edges. Some disturbance-favoring pioneers (e.g., Cecropia sciadophylla, Vismia guianensis, V. amazonica, V. bemerguii, Miconia cf. crassinervia) increased by >1000% in density on edge plots, whereas over a third (19 of 52) of all species remained constant or declined in numbers. Species responses to fragmentation were effectively predicted by their median growth rate in nearby intact forest, suggesting that faster-growing species have a strong advantage in forest fragments. An ordination analysis revealed three main gradients in successional-species composition across our study area. Species gradients were most strongly influenced by the standlevel rate of tree mortality on each plot and by the number of nearby forest edges. Species-composition also varied significantly among different cattle ranches, which differed in their surrounding matrices and disturbance histories. These same variables were also the best predictors of total successional-tree abundance and species richness. Successional-tree assemblages in fragment interior plots (>150 m from edge), which are subjected to fragment area effects but not edge effects, did not differ significantly from those in intact forest, indicating that area effects per se had little influence on successional trees. Soils and topography also had little discernable effect on these species. Collectively, our results indicate that successional-tree species proliferate rapidly in fragmented Amazonian forests, largely as a result of chronically elevated tree mortality near forest edges and possibly an increased seed rain from successional plants growing in nearby degraded habitats. The proliferation of fast-growing successional trees and correlated decline of old-growth trees will have important effects on species composition, forest dynamics, carbon storage, and nutrient cycling in fragmented forests.     

Factors affecting aural detections of songbirds.

Many factors affect the number of birds detected on point count surveys of breeding songbirds. The magnitude and importance of these factors are not well understood. We used a bird song simulation system to quantify the effects of detection distance, singing rate, species differences, and observer differences on detection probabilities of birds detected by ear. We simulated 40 point counts consisting of 10 birds per count for five primary species (Black-and-white Warbler Mniotilta varia, Black-throated Blue Warbler Dendroica caerulescens, Black-throated Green Warbler Dendroica virens, Hooded Warbler Wilsonia citrina, and Ovenbird Seiurus aurocapillus) over a range of 15 distances (34-143 m). Songs were played at low (two songs per count) and high (13-21 songs per count) singing rates. Detection probabilities averaged across observers ranged from 0.60 (Black-and-white Warbler) to 0.83 (Hooded Warbler) at the high singing rate and 0.41 (Black-and-white Warbler) to 0.67 (Hooded Warbler) at the low singing rate. Logistic regression analyses indicated that species, singing rate, distance, and observer were all significant factors affecting detection probabilities. Singing rate x species and singing rate X distance interactions were also significant. Simulations of expected counts, based on the best logistic model, indicated that observers detected between 19% (for the worst observer, lowest singing rate, and least detectable species) and 65% (for the best observer, highest singing rate, and most detectable species) of the true population. Detection probabilities on actual point count surveys are likely to vary even more because many sources of variability were controlled in our experiments. These findings strongly support the importance of adjusting measures of avian diversity or abundance from auditory point counts with direct estimates of detection probability.     

Assessing effects of land use on landscape connectivity: loss and fragmentation of western U.S. forests

Effects of land-use change on the conservation of biodiversity have become a concern to conservation scientists and land managers, who have identified loss and fragmentation of natural areas as a high-priority issue. Despite urgent calls to inform national, regional, and state planning efforts, there remains a critical need to develop practical approaches to identify where important lands are for landscape connectivity (i.e., linkages), where land use constrains connectivity, and which linkages are most important to maintain network-wide connectivity extents. Our overall goal in this paper was to develop an approach that provides comprehensive, quantitative estimates of the effects of land-use change on landscape connectivity and illustrate its use on a broad, regional expanse of the western United States. We quantified loss of habitat and landscape connectivity for western forested systems due to land uses associated with residential development, roads, and highway traffic. We examined how these land-use changes likely increase the resistance to movement of forest species in non-forested land cover types and, therefore, reduce the connectivity among forested habitat patches. To do so, we applied a graph-theoretic approach that incorporates ecological aspects within a geographic representation of a network. We found that roughly one-quarter of the forested lands in the western United States were integral to a network of forested patches, though the lands outside of patches remain critical for habitat and overall connectivity. Using remotely sensed land cover data (ca. 2000), we found 1.7 million km2 of forested lands. We estimate that land uses associated with residential development, roads, and highway traffic have caused roughly a 4.5% loss in area (20 000 km2) of these forested patches, and continued expansion of residential land will likely reduce forested patches by another 1.2% by 2030. We also identify linkages among forest patches that are critical for landscape connectivity. Our approach can be readily modified to examine connectivity for other habitats/ecological systems and for other geographic areas, as well as to address more specific requirements for particular conservation planning applications.     

Landscape history, fragmentation, and patch occupancy: models for a forest bird with limited dispersal.

We developed and tested patch occupancy models for an endemic understory bird with limited dispersal ability, the Chucao Tapaculo (Scelorchilus rubecula), in two South American temperate rain forest landscapes that differed in levels and duration of forest loss. We assessed cover changes since 1961 in each landscape and surveyed patches for Chucao Tapaculo occupancy. We then developed incidence-based predictive models independently for each landscape and tested each model reciprocally in the alternative study area. We thereby assessed the domain of model applicability and identified those predictor variables with general effects and those that varied between the two landscapes. The two models were consistent regarding variable selection, and predictive accuracy of each model was high in the landscape where training data were collected. However, the models differed substantially in the magnitudes of effects related to patch size, with larger unoccupied patches observed in the landscape with the more advanced stage of fragmentation. Due to this discrepancy, each model performed poorly when applied to the alternative landscape, potentially reflecting the contrasting stages of habitat loss. Although it was impossible to dissociate effects of level and duration of forest loss, we viewed the landscapes as representing two extremes along a continuum of fragmentation, providing insights into potential trajectories for portions of the biome where deforestation is occurring. Further, our data suggest that static equilibrium models developed from distribution patterns in recently fragmented landscapes may overestimate persistence when used as a forecasting tool, or when extrapolated to alternative landscapes where fragmentation is more advanced. Thus, we suggest that landscapes used as standards for model building should be selected with caution. We recommend that distribution patterns be obtained from landscapes where fragmentation is advanced, preferably with histories of fragmentation long enough that time-delayed extinctions already would have occurred.     

Landscape-level impact of tropical forest loss and fragmentation on bird occurrence in eastern Guatemala

Tropical forest destruction and fragmentation of habitat patches may reduce population persistence at the landscape level. Given the complex nature of simultaneously evaluating the effects of these factors on biotic populations, statistical presence/absence modelling has become an important tool in conservation biology. This study uses logistic regression to evaluate the independent effects of tropical forest cover and fragmentation on bird occurrence in eastern Guatemala. Logistic regression models were constructed for 10 species with varying response to habitat alteration. Predictive variables quantified forest cover, fragmentation and their interaction at three different radii (200, 500 and 1000 m scales) of 112 points where presence of target species was determined. Most species elicited a response to the 1000 m scale, which was greater than most species’ reported territory size. Thus, their presence at the landscape scale is probably regulated by extra-territorial phenomena, such as dispersal. Although proportion of forest cover was the most important predictor of species’ presence, there was strong evidence of area-independent and -dependent fragmentation effects on species presence, results that contrast with other studies from northernmost latitudes. Species’ habitat breadth was positively correlated with AIC model values, indicating a better fit for species more restricted to tropical forest. Species with a narrower habitat breadth also elicited stronger negative responses to forest loss. Habitat breadth is thus a simple measure that can be directly related to species’ vulnerability to landscape modification. Model predictive accuracy was acceptable for 4 of 10 species, which were in turn those with narrower habitat breadths.     

Limited salvage logging effects on forest regeneration after moderate-severity windthrow.

Recent conceptual advances address forest response to multiple disturbances within a brief time period, providing an ideal framework for examining the consequences of natural disturbances followed by anthropogenic management activities. The combination of two or more disturbances in a short period may produce "ecological surprises," and models predict a threshold of cumulative disturbance severity above which forest composition will be drastically altered and regeneration may be impaired. Salvage logging (the harvesting of timber after natural disturbances; also called "salvaging" or "sanitary logging") is common, but there have been no tests of the manner in which salvaging after natural wind disturbance affects woody plant regeneration. Here we present findings from three years after a moderate-severity wind disturbance in west-central Tennessee, USA. We compare two unsalvaged sites and two sites that had intermediate-intensity salvaging. Our approach demonstrates the calculation of cumulative severity measures, which combine natural windthrow severity and anthropogenic tree cutting and removal, on a plot-by-plot basis. Seedling/sapling density and species richness were not influenced by cumulative disturbance severity, but species diversity showed a marginal increase with increasing cumulative severity. The amount of compositional change (from predisturbance trees to post-disturbance seedlings/saplings) increased significantly with cumulative severity of disturbance but showed no evidence of thresholds within the severity range examined. Overall, few deleterious changes were evident in these sites. Moderate-severity natural disturbances followed by moderate-intensity salvaging may have little detrimental effect on forest regeneration and diversity in these systems; the ecological surprises and threshold compositional change are more likely after combinations of natural and anthropogenic disturbances that have a much greater cumulative severity.     

森林土壤对几种重金属污染的记忆效应

采用一定浓度(40～120 mg·L-1)Cd、Cr、Pb的氯化物溶液多次浇灌森林土壤,研究受以前污灌影响而导致某次污灌后土壤对重金属的吸持率下降的效应--记忆效应.结果表明土壤对Cr和Pb环境容量大,记忆效应不明显.多次浇灌CrCl3溶液后,土壤剖面20 cm以下采样点约99%的Cr被土壤吸持;3次浇灌PbCl2后各采样点Pb浓度下降率维持在85%以上,但污灌次数进一步增加,则土壤的吸持率下降.Cd的环境容量较小,增加投入会很快使土壤上层对其吸附达到饱和,吸附带随之下移,对地下水的安全构成威胁.     

Potential effects of forest policies on terrestrial biodiversity in a multi-ownership province.

We used spatial simulation models to evaluate how current and two alternative policies might affect potential biodiversity over 100 years in the Coast Ranges Physiographic Province of Oregon. This 2.3-million-ha province is characterized by a diversity of public and private forest owners, and a wide range of forest policy and management objectives. We evaluated habitat availability for seven focal species representing different life histories. We also examined how policies affected old-growth stand structure, age distributions relative to the historical range of variability, and landscape patterns of forest types. Under the current policy scenario, the area of habitat for old-growth forest structure and associated species increased over time, the habitat for some early-successional associates remained stable, and the area of hardwood vegetation and diverse early-successional stages declined. The province is projected to move toward but not reach the historical range of variation of forest age classes that may have occurred under the wildfire regimes of the pre-Euroamerican settlement period. Ownership explained much of the pattern of biodiversity in the province, and under the current policy scenario, its effect increased over time as the landscape diverged into highly contrasting forest structures and ages. Patch type diversity declined slightly overall but declined strongly within ownerships. Most of the modeled change in biodiversity over time resulted from policies on public forest lands that were intended to increase the area of late-successional forests and species. One of the alternative policies, increased retention of wildlife trees on private lands, reduced the contrast between ownerships and increased habitat availability over time for both early- and late-successional species. Analysis of another alternative, stopping thinning of plantations on federal lands, indicated that current thinning regimes improve habitat for the Olive-sided Flycatcher, but the no-thinning alternative had no effect on the habitat scores for the late-successional species in the 100-year simulation. A comparison of indicators of biological diversity suggests that using focal species and forest structural measures can provide complementary information on biodiversity. The multi-ownership perspective provided a more complete synthesis of province-wide biodiversity patterns than assessments based on single ownerships.     

The effects of habitat loss, fragmentation, and community homogenization on resilience in estuaries.

When changes in the frequency and extent of disturbance outstrip the recovery potential of resident communities, the selective removal of species contributes to habitat loss and fragmentation across landscapes. The degree to which habitat change is likely to influence community resilience will depend on metacommunity structure and connectivity. Thus ecological connectivity is central to understanding the potential for cumulative effects to impact upon diversity. The importance of these issues to coastal marine communities, where the prevailing concept of open communities composed of highly dispersive species is being challenged, indicates that these systems may be more sensitive to cumulative impacts than previously thought. We conducted a disturbance-recovery experiment across gradients of community type and environmental conditions to assess the roles of ecological connectivity and regional variations in community structure on the recovery of species richness, total abundance, and community composition in Mahurangi Harbour, New Zealand. After 394 days, significant differences in recovery between sites were apparent. Statistical models explaining a high proportion of the variability (R2 > 0.92) suggested that community recovery rates were controlled by a combination of physical and ecological features operating across spatial scales, affecting successional processes. The dynamic and complex interplay of ecological and environmental processes we observed driving patch recovery across the estuarine landscape are integral to recovery from disturbances in heterogeneous environments. This link between succession/recovery, disturbance, and heterogeneity confirms the utility of disturbance-recovery experiments as assays for cumulative change due to fragmentation and habitat change in estuaries.     

Nonlinear responses to food availability shape effects of habitat fragmentation on consumers

Fragmentation of landscapes is a pervasive source of environmental change. Although understanding the effects of fragmentation has occupied ecologists for decades, there remain important gaps in our understanding of the way that fragmentation influences mobile organisms. In particular, there is little tested theory explaining the way that fragmentation shapes interactions between consumers and resources. We propose a simple model that explains why fragmentation may harm consumers even when the total amount of resources on the landscape they use remains unchanged. In particular, we show that nonlinearity in the relationship between resource availability and benefits acquired by consumers from resources can cause a decrease in benefits to consumers when landscapes are subdivided into isolated parts and when the distribution of consumers in fragments is not matched to the distribution of resources. We tested predictions of the model using a laboratory system of cabbage looper (Trichoplusia ni) larvae on artificial landscapes. Consistent with the model's predictions, survivorship of larvae decreased when landscapes with heterogeneous resources were fragmented into isolated parts. However, average mass of surviving larvae did not change in response to fragmentation. With basic knowledge of consumer resource use patterns and landscape structure, our model, supported by our experiment, contributes new understanding of the resource-mediated effects of fragmentation on consumers.     

Factors influencing the movement biology of migrant songbirds confronted with an ecological barrier

Whether or not a migratory songbird embarks on a long-distance flight across an ecological barrier is likely a response to a number of endogenous and exogenous factors. During autumn 2008 and 2009, we used automated radio tracking to investigate how energetic condition, age, and weather influenced the departure timing and direction of Swainson’s thrushes (Catharus ustulatus) during migratory stopover along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico. Most birds left within 1 h after sunset on the evening following capture. Those birds that departed later on the first night or remained longer than 1 day were lean. Birds that carried fat loads sufficient to cross the Gulf of Mexico generally departed in a seasonally appropriate southerly direction, whereas lean birds nearly always flew inland in a northerly direction. We did not detect an effect of age or weather on departures. The decision by lean birds to reorient movement inland may reflect the suitability of the coastal stopover site for deposition of fuel stores and the motivation to seek food among more extensive forested habitat away from the barrier.     

Extinction debt of forest plants persists for more than a century following habitat fragmentation

Following habitat fragmentation individual habitat patches may lose species over time as they pay off their "extinction debt." Species with relatively low rates of population extinction and colonization ("slow" species) may maintain extinction debts for particularly prolonged periods, but few data are available to test this prediction. We analyzed two unusually detailed data sets on forest plant distributions and land-use history from Lincolnshire, United Kingdom, and Vlaams-Brabant, Belgium, to test for an extinction debt in relation to species-specific extinction and colonization rates. Logistic regression models predicting the presence-absence of 36 plant species were first parameterized using data from Lincolnshire, where forest cover has been relatively low (approximately 5-8%) for the past 1000 years. Consistent with extinction debt theory, for relatively slow species (but not fast species) these models systematically underpredicted levels of patch occupancy in Vlaams-Brabant, where forest cover was reduced from approximately 25% to <10% between 1775 and 1900 (it is presently 6.5%). As a consequence, the ability of the Lincolnshire models to predict patch occupancy in Vlaams-Brabant was worse for slow than for fast species. Thus, more than a century after forest fragmentation reached its current level an extinction debt persists for species with low rates of population turnover.     

Cumulative ecological and socioeconomic effects of forest policies in coastal Oregon.

Forest biodiversity policies in multi-ownership landscapes are typically developed in an uncoordinated fashion with little consideration of their interactions or possible unintended cumulative effects. We conducted an assessment of some of the ecological and socioeconomic effects of recently enacted forest management policies in the 2.3-million-ha Coast Range Physiographic Province of Oregon. This mountainous area of conifer and hardwood forests includes a mosaic of landowners with a wide range of goals, from wilderness protection to high-yield timber production. We projected forest changes over 100 years in response to logging and development using models that integrate land use change and forest stand and landscape processes. We then assessed responses to those management activities using GIS models of stand structure and composition, landscape structure, habitat models for focal terrestrial and aquatic species, timber production, employment, and willingness to pay for biodiversity protection. Many of the potential outcomes of recently enacted policies are consistent with intended goals. For example, we project the area of structurally diverse older conifer forest and habitat for late successional wildlife species to strongly increase. 'Other outcomes might not be consistent with current policies: for example, hardwoods and vegetation diversity strongly decline within and across owners. Some elements of biodiversity, including streams with high potential habitat for coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and sites of potential oak woodland, occur predominately outside federal lands and thus were not affected by the strongest biodiversity policies. Except for federal lands, biodiversity policies were not generally characterized in sufficient detail to provide clear benchmarks against which to measure the progress or success. We conclude that land management institutions and policies are not well configured to deal effectively with ecological issues that span broad spatial and temporal scales and that alternative policies could be constructed that more effectively provide for a mix of forest values from this region.     

弄拉岩溶区次生林的生态水文效应

于2006年5月至7月对广西弄拉兰电堂泉水源林区各类水样的物理化学特征进行了研究。通过收集弄拉兰电堂泉集水区次生乔木林中的大气降雨、穿透雨、树干径流雨和表层岩溶泉水,对其中的化学成分含量和pH值进行了分析测定。结果表明:大气降雨经过森林层后,化学成分的总含量增加了;各种养分元素表现出不同的变化,Cl-和Na 减少,其余各离子以及TC、TIC和TOC都表现出增加,对应于每场降雨后的泉水中各成分的变化不是很显著;穿透雨和树干径流雨的pH值表现为下降,泉水的pH值变化幅度较小。经过次生林后的雨水可促进岩溶作用和表层岩溶带的生物地球化学循环,增加土壤中某些碱性元素的有效态。     

Modeling the forest transition: forest scarcity and ecosystem service hypotheses.

An historical generalization about forest cover change in which rapid deforestation gives way over time to forest restoration is called "the forest transition." Prior research on the forest transition leaves three important questions unanswered: (1) How does forest loss influence an individual landowner's incentives to reforest? (2) How does the forest recovery rate affect the likelihood of forest transition? (3) What happens after the forest transition occurs? The purpose of this paper is to develop a minimum model of the forest transition to answer these questions. We assume that deforestation caused by landowners' decisions and forest regeneration initiated by agricultural abandonment have aggregated effects that characterize entire landscapes. These effects include feedback mechanisms called the "forest scarcity" and "ecosystem service" hypotheses. In the forest scarcity hypothesis, forest losses make forest products scarcer, which increases the economic value of forests. In the ecosystem service hypothesis, the environmental degradation that accompanies the loss of forests causes the value of ecosystem services provided by forests to decline. We examined the impact of each mechanism on the likelihood of forest transition through an investigation of the equilibrium and stability of landscape dynamics. We found that the forest transition occurs only when landowners employ a low rate of future discounting. After the forest transition, regenerated forests are protected in a sustainable way if forests regenerate slowly. When forests regenerate rapidly, the forest scarcity hypothesis expects instability in which cycles of large-scale deforestation followed by forest regeneration repeatedly characterize the landscape. In contrast, the ecosystem service hypothesis predicts a catastrophic shift from a forested to an abandoned landscape when the amount of deforestation exceeds the critical level, which can lead to a resource degrading poverty trap. These findings imply that incentives for forest conservation seem stronger in settings where forests regenerate slowly as well as when decision makers value the future.     

Habitat fragmentation and effects of herbivore (howler monkey) abundances on bird species richness

Habitat fragmentation can alter herbivore abundances, potentially causing changes in the plant community that can propagate through the food web and eventually influence other important taxonomic groups such as birds. Here we test the relationship between the density of red howler monkeys (Alouatta seniculus) and bird species richness on a large set of recently isolated land-bridge islands in Lago Guri, Venezuela (n = 29 islands). Several of these islands host relict populations of howler monkeys at densities up to more than 30 times greater than those on the mainland. These "hyperabundant" herbivores previously have been shown to have a strong positive influence on aboveground plant productivity. We predicted that this should lead to a positive, indirect effect of howler monkey density on bird species richness. After accounting for passive sampling (the tendency for species richness to be positively associated with island area, regardless of differences in habitat quality) we found a significant positive correlation between howler monkey density and bird species richness. A path analysis incorporating data on tree growth rates from a subset of islands (n = 9) supported the hypothesis that the effect of howler monkeys on the resident bird communities is indirect and is mediated through changes in plant productivity and habitat quality. These results highlight the potential for disparate taxonomic groups to be related through indirect interactions and trophic cascades.