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1.
Lei Qiao Zaitao Pan Robert B. Herrmann Yang Hong 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2014,50(1):246-260
The lower Missouri River Basin has experienced increasing streamflow and flooding events, with higher risk of extreme hydrologic impacts under changing climate. The newly available North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climate projections were used as atmospheric forcing for Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model which runs with varying potential evapotranspiration (PET) methods to assess the hydrological change and uncertainty of 2040‐2069 over 1968‐1997. The NARCCAP temperature and precipitation predictions were refined using a bias correction method. The results show that, following the seasonal variability of precipitation, various water fluxes would increase in most seasons except the summer. Expected precipitation tends to increase in intensity with little change in frequency, triggering faster surface water concentration to form floods. The greatest streamflow increase would occur from November to February, increasing by around 10% on average. An increase of 3% occurs in the other months except for July and August in which river discharge decreases by around 2%. The climate predictions contribute more uncertainty annually, but PET algorithms gain more influence in winter or when other weather factors such as wind play a relatively more important role on evapotranspiration flux. This study predicts an even wetter environment compared to the historically very wet period, with the possibility of more flooding. 相似文献
2.
It is widely accepted that improving the sustainability of seafood production requires efforts to reverse declines in global
fisheries due to overfishing and to reduce the impacts to host ecosystems from fishing and aquaculture production technologies.
Reflective of on-going dialogue amongst participants in an international research project applying Life Cycle Assessment to
better understand and manage global salmon production systems, we argue here that such efforts must also address the wider
range of biophysical, ecological, and socioeconomic impacts stemming from the material and energetic throughput associated
with these industries. This is of particular relevance given the interconnectivity of global environmental change, ocean health,
and the viability of seafood production in both fisheries and aquaculture. Although the growing popularity of numerous ecolabeling,
certification, and consumer education programs may be making headway in influencing Western consumer perceptions of the relative
sustainability of alternative seafood products, we also posit that the efficacy of these initiatives in furthering sustainability
objectives is compromised by the use of incomplete criteria. An emerging body of Life Cycle Assessment research of fisheries
and aquaculture provides valuable insights into the biophysical dimensions of environmental performance in alternative seafood
production and consumption systems, and should be used to inform a more holistic approach to labeling, certifying, and educating
for sustainability in seafood production. More research, however, must be undertaken to develop novel techniques for incorporating
other critical dimensions, in particular, socioeconomic considerations, into our sustainability decision-making. 相似文献
3.
Changing the Course of Rivers in an Asian City: Linking Landscapes to Human Benefits through Iterative Modeling and Design 下载免费PDF全文
Derek Vollmer Diogo Costa Ervine Shengwei Lin Yazid Ninsalam Kashif Shaad Michaela F. Prescott Senthil Gurusamy Federica Remondi Rita Padawangi Paolo Burlando Christophe Girot Adrienne Grêt‐Regamey Joerg Rekittke 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2015,51(3):672-688
Concerns over water scarcity, climate change, and environmental health risks have prompted some Asian cities to invest in river rehabilitation, but deciding on the end goals of rehabilitation is a complex undertaking. We propose a multidisciplinary framework linking riparian landscape change to human well‐being, providing information relevant to decision makers, in a format that facilitates stakeholder involvement. We illustrate this through a case study of the densely settled, environmentally degraded, and flood prone Ciliwung River flowing through metropolitan Jakarta, Indonesia. Our methodology attempts to respond to this complexity through an iterative approach, strongly based on conceptualization and mathematical modeling. Nested hydrologic, hydrodynamic, and water quality models provide outputs at catchment‐, corridor‐, and localized site‐scales. Advanced 3‐D landscape modeling is used for procedural design and precise visualization of proposed changes and their impacts, as predicted by the mathematical models. Finally, participatory planning and design methods allow us to obtain critical stakeholder feedback in shaping a socially acceptable approach. Our framework aims at demonstrating that a change in paradigm in river rehabilitation is possible, and providing future scenarios that balance concerns over flooding, water quality, and ecology, with the realities of a rapidly growing megacity. 相似文献
4.
Campos Felipe S. Loureno-de-Moraes Ricardo Ruas Danilo S. Mira-Mendes Caio V. Franch Marc Llorente Gustavo A. Sol Mirco Cabral Pedro 《Environmental management》2020,65(1):46-61
Environmental Management - Ecological connectivity depends on key elements within the landscape, which can support ecological fluxes, species richness and long-term viability of a biological... 相似文献
5.
Linda A. Joyce Geoffrey M. Blate Steven G. McNulty Constance I. Millar Susanne Moser Ronald P. Neilson David L. Peterson 《Environmental management》2009,44(6):1022-1032
This study explores potential adaptation approaches in planning and management that the United States Forest Service might
adopt to help achieve its goals and objectives in the face of climate change. Availability of information, vulnerability of
ecological and socio-economic systems, and uncertainties associated with climate change, as well as the interacting non-climatic
changes, influence selection of the adaptation approach. Resource assessments are opportunities to develop strategic information
that could be used to identify and link adaptation strategies across planning levels. Within a National Forest, planning must
incorporate the opportunity to identify vulnerabilities to climate change as well as incorporate approaches that allow management
adjustments as the effects of climate change become apparent. The nature of environmental variability, the inevitability of
novelty and surprise, and the range of management objectives and situations across the National Forest System implies that
no single approach will fit all situations. A toolbox of management options would include practices focused on forestalling
climate change effects by building resistance and resilience into current ecosystems, and on managing for change by enabling
plants, animals, and ecosystems to adapt to climate change. Better and more widespread implementation of already known practices
that reduce the impact of existing stressors represents an important “no regrets” strategy. These management opportunities
will require agency consideration of its adaptive capacity, and ways to overcome potential barriers to these adaptation options. 相似文献
6.
Ethical reflection deals not only with the moral standing and handling of animals, it should also include a critical analysis
of the underlying relationship. Anthropological, psychological, and sociological aspects of the human–animal-relationship
should be taken into account. Two conditions, asymmetry and ambivalence, are taken as the historical and empirical basis for
reflections on the human–animal-relationship in late modern societies. These conditions explain the variety of moral practice,
apart from paradoxes, and provide a framework to systematize animal ethical problems in a broader field. This allows the development
of ideal relationships as moral orientation across anthropocentric or sentientistic ethical theories. These ideal relationships
are called the patronage-model, the friendship-model and the partnership-model. The ethical problem of creating transgenic
animals is discussed in the light of these ideal relationships. 相似文献
7.
Emily Sherra Weeks Susan Walker Jake McC Overton Bruce Clarkson 《Environmental management》2013,51(5):1055-1066
Data needed for informed conservation prioritization are generally greater than the data available, and surrogates are often used. Although the need to anticipate threats is recognized, the effectiveness of surrogates for predicting habitat loss (or vulnerability) to land-use change is seldom tested. Here, we compared properties of two different vulnerability surrogates to validated vulnerability—validated prediction of habitat conversion based on a recent assessment of land-use change. We found that neither surrogate was a particularly effective predictor of vulnerability. Importantly, both surrogates performed poorly in places most imminently threatened with habitat conversion. We also show that the majority of areas protected over the last two decades have low vulnerability to the most active threatening process in this biome (habitat conversion). The contrary patterns of vulnerability and protection suggest that use of validated vulnerability would help to clarify protection needs, which might lead to the improvement of conservation decisions. Our study suggests the integration of validated vulnerability into conservation planning tools may be an important requirement for effective conservation planning in rapidly changing landscapes. We apply our results to discuss the practical considerations and potential value of incorporating validated vulnerability into conservation planning tools both generally and in the context of New Zealand’s indigenous grasslands. 相似文献
8.
J. A. Maynard J. E. Johnson P. A. Marshall C. M. Eakin G. Goby H. Schuttenberg C. M. Spillman 《Environmental management》2009,44(1):1-11
The frequency and severity of mass coral bleaching events are predicted to increase as sea temperatures continue to warm under
a global regime of rising ocean temperatures. Bleaching events can be disastrous for coral reef ecosystems and, given the
number of other stressors to reefs that result from human activities, there is widespread concern about their future. This
article provides a strategic framework from the Great Barrier Reef to prepare for and respond to mass bleaching events. The
framework presented has two main inter-related components: an early warning system and assessment and monitoring. Both include
the need to proactively and consistently communicate information on environmental conditions and the level of bleaching severity
to senior decision-makers, stakeholders, and the public. Managers, being the most timely and credible source of information
on bleaching events, can facilitate the implementation of strategies that can give reefs the best chance to recover from bleaching
and to withstand future disturbances. The proposed framework is readily transferable to other coral reef regions, and can
easily be adapted by managers to local financial, technical, and human resources. 相似文献
9.
Climate change will pose increasingly significant challenges to managers of parks and other forms of protected areas around
the world. Over the past two decades, numerous scientific publications have identified potential adaptations, but their suitability
from legal, policy, financial, internal capacity, and other management perspectives has not been evaluated for any protected
area agency or organization. In this study, a panel of protected area experts applied a Policy Delphi methodology to identify
and evaluate climate change adaptation options across the primary management areas of a protected area agency in Canada. The
panel identified and evaluated one hundred and sixty five (165) adaptation options for their perceived desirability and feasibility.
While the results revealed a high level of agreement with respect to the desirability of adaptation options and a moderate
level of capacity pertaining to policy formulation and management direction, a perception of low capacity for implementation
in most other program areas was identified. A separate panel of senior park agency decision-makers used a multiple criterion
decision-facilitation matrix to further evaluate the institutional feasibility of the 56 most desirable adaptation options
identified by the initial expert panel and to prioritize them for consideration in a climate change action plan. Critically,
only two of the 56 adaptation options evaluated by senior decision-makers were deemed definitely implementable, due largely
to fiscal and internal capacity limitations. These challenges are common to protected area agencies in developed countries
and pervade those in developing countries, revealing that limited adaptive capacity represents a substantive barrier to biodiversity
conservation and other protected area management objectives in an era of rapid climate change. 相似文献
10.
Venkataramana Sridhar Parthkumar Modi Mirza M. Billah Prasanth Valayamkunnath Jonathan L. Goodall 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2019,55(4):780-799
Despite the advances in climate change modeling, extreme events pose a challenge to develop approaches that are relevant for urban stormwater infrastructure designs and best management practices. The study first investigates the statistical methods applied to the land‐based daily precipitation series acquired from the Global Historical Climatology Network‐Daily (GHCN‐D). Additional analysis was carried out on the simulated Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA)‐based downscaled daily extreme precipitation of 15 General Circulation Models and Weather Research and Forecasting‐based hourly extreme precipitation of North American Regional Reanalysis to discern the return period of 24‐hr and 48‐hr events. We infer that the GHCN‐D and MACA‐based precipitation reveals increasing trends in annual and seasonal extreme daily precipitation. Both BCC‐CSM1‐1‐m and GFDL‐ESM2M models revealed that the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events are projected to increase between 2016 and 2099. We conclude that the future scenarios show an increase in magnitudes of extreme precipitation up to three times across southeastern Virginia resulting in increased discharge rates at selected gauge locations. The depth‐duration‐frequency curve predicted an increase of 2–3 times in 24‐ and 48‐h precipitation intensity, higher peaks, and indicated an increase of up to 50% in flood magnitude in future scenarios. 相似文献
11.
Eugene Z. Stakhiv 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2011,47(6):1183-1196
Stakhiv, Eugene Z., 2011. Pragmatic Approaches for Water Management Under Climate Change Uncertainty. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1183–1196. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00589.x Abstract: Water resources management is in a difficult transition phase, trying to accommodate large uncertainties associated with climate change while struggling to implement a difficult set of principles and institutional changes associated with integrated water resources management. Water management is the principal medium through which projected impacts of global warming will be felt and ameliorated. Many standard hydrological practices, based on assumptions of a stationary climate, can be extended to accommodate numerous aspects of climate uncertainty. Classical engineering risk and reliability strategies developed by the water management profession to cope with contemporary climate uncertainties can also be effectively employed during this transition period, while a new family of hydrological tools and better climate change models are developed. An expansion of the concept of “robust decision making,” coupled with existing analytical tools and techniques, is the basis for a new approach advocated for planning and designing water resources infrastructure under climate uncertainty. Ultimately, it is not the tools and methods that need to be revamped as much as the suite of decision rules and evaluation principles used for project justification. They need to be aligned to be more compatible with the implications of a highly uncertain future climate trajectory, so that the hydrologic effects of that uncertainty are correctly reflected in the design of water infrastructure. 相似文献
12.
Sven Rannow Nicholas A. Macgregor Juliane Albrecht Humphrey Q. P. Crick Michael Förster Stefan Heiland Georg Janauer Mike D. Morecroft Marco Neubert Anca Sarbu Jadwiga Sienkiewicz 《Environmental management》2014,54(4):732-743
The implementation of adaptation actions in local conservation management is a new and complex task with multiple facets, influenced by factors differing from site to site. A transdisciplinary perspective is therefore required to identify and implement effective solutions. To address this, the International Conference on Managing Protected Areas under Climate Change brought together international scientists, conservation managers, and decision-makers to discuss current experiences with local adaptation of conservation management. This paper summarizes the main issues for implementing adaptation that emerged from the conference. These include a series of conclusions and recommendations on monitoring, sensitivity assessment, current and future management practices, and legal and policy aspects. A range of spatial and temporal scales must be considered in the implementation of climate-adapted management. The adaptation process must be area-specific and consider the ecosystem and the social and economic conditions within and beyond protected area boundaries. However, a strategic overview is also needed: management at each site should be informed by conservation priorities and likely impacts of climate change at regional or even wider scales. Acting across these levels will be a long and continuous process, requiring coordination with actors outside the “traditional” conservation sector. To achieve this, a range of research, communication, and policy/legal actions is required. We identify a series of important actions that need to be taken at different scales to enable managers of protected sites to adapt successfully to a changing climate. 相似文献
13.
Kelly A. Kearney Mark Butler Robert Glazer Christopher R. Kelble Joseph E. Serafy Erik Stabenau 《Environmental management》2015,55(4):836-856
The Florida Bay ecosystem supports a number of economically important ecosystem services, including several recreational fisheries, which may be affected by changing salinity and temperature due to climate change. In this paper, we use a combination of physical models and habitat suitability index models to quantify the effects of potential climate change scenarios on a variety of juvenile fish and lobster species in Florida Bay. The climate scenarios include alterations in sea level, evaporation and precipitation rates, coastal runoff, and water temperature. We find that the changes in habitat suitability vary in both magnitude and direction across the scenarios and species, but are on average small. Only one of the seven species we investigate (Lagodon rhomboides, i.e., pinfish) sees a sizable decrease in optimal habitat under any of the scenarios. This suggests that the estuarine fauna of Florida Bay may not be as vulnerable to climate change as other components of the ecosystem, such as those in the marine/terrestrial ecotone. However, these models are relatively simplistic, looking only at single species effects of physical drivers without considering the many interspecific interactions that may play a key role in the adjustment of the ecosystem as a whole. More complex models that capture the mechanistic links between physics and biology, as well as the complex dynamics of the estuarine food web, may be necessary to further understand the potential effects of climate change on the Florida Bay ecosystem. 相似文献
14.
Cross-Boundary Coordination on Forested Landscapes: Investigating Alternatives for Implementation 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Cross-boundary coordination is a tool for ecosystem management whereby landowners voluntarily coordinate management practices
toward economic and/or ecological landscape-scale outcomes (e.g., fiber, invasive species control, habitat). Past research
indicates that it may be particularly applicable on landscapes that include small forest landholdings. To explore alternatives
by which coordination might occur, we conducted seven focus groups with landowners (n = 51) who actively manage their forests in southwest Wisconsin and northeast Iowa. Focus group participants were presented
with three hypothetical alternatives to coordinate with their neighbors; landowners could self-organize, work with a natural
resource professional (i.e., forester), or work with an organization to complete a cross-boundary practice. In this article,
we focus on the latter two alternatives and the role of two social theories—principal-agent and cooperation—in explaining
landowners’ evaluations of these alternatives. Key findings are that (1) cross-boundary coordination has the potential to
alleviate problems between landowners and resource professionals inherent to their typical working relationship, and (2) social
relationships are a major factor contributing to landowners’ willingness to participate. We posit that cross-boundary coordination
offers a non-economic incentive for landowners to work together as it may reduce the uncertainty associated with hiring a
resource professional. At the same time, professionals can provide a bridging function among landowners who are unacquainted.
To achieve these outcomes and expand the adoption of cross-boundary coordination, we suggest four guidelines. First, foster
dialogue among landowners toward shared cognition and oversight. Second, match landowners’ practices and objectives such that
there are clear benefits to all. Third, develop relationships through low risk activities where possible. Fourth, do not expect
on-going commitments.
相似文献
Mark RickenbachEmail: |
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17.
Ge Sun Changqing Zuo Shiyu Liu Mingliang Liu Steven G. McNulty James M. Vose 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2008,44(5):1164-1175
Abstract: Natural forests in southern China have been severely logged due to high human demand for timber, food, and fuels during the past century, but are recovering in the past decade. The objective of this study was to investigate how vegetation cover changes in composition and structure affected the water budgets of a 9.6‐km2 Dakeng watershed located in a humid subtropical mountainous region in southern China. We analyzed 27 years (i.e., 1967‐1993) of streamflow and climate data and associated vegetation cover change in the watershed. Land use/land cover census and Normalized Difference of Vegetation Index (NDVI) data derived from remote sensing were used to construct historic land cover change patterns. We found that over the period of record, annual streamflow (Q) and runoff/precipitation ratio did not change significantly, nor did the climatic variables, including air temperature, Hamon’s potential evapotranspiration (ET), pan evaporation, sunshine hours, and radiation. However, annual ET estimated as the differences between P and Q showed a statistically significant increasing trend. Overall, the NDVI of the watershed had a significant increasing trend in the peak spring growing season. This study concluded that watershed ecosystem ET increased as the vegetation cover shifted from low stock forests to shrub and grasslands that had higher ET rates. A conceptual model was developed for the study watershed to describe the vegetation cover‐streamflow relationships during a 50‐year time frame. This paper highlighted the importance of eco‐physiologically based studies in understanding transitory, nonstationary effects of deforestation or forestation on watershed water balances. 相似文献
18.
Kristen M. Waring Danielle M. Reboletti Lauren A. Mork Ching-Hsun Huang Richard W. Hofstetter Amanda M. Garcia Peter Z. Fulé T. Seth Davis 《Environmental management》2009,44(4):824-835
Predicted climate warming is expected to have profound effects on bark beetle population dynamics in the southwestern United
States. Temperature-mediated effects may include increases in developmental rates, generations per year, and changes in habitat
suitability. As a result, the impacts of Dendroctonus frontalis and Dendroctonus mexicanus on forest resources are likely subject to amplification. To assess the implications of such change, we evaluated the generations
per year of these species under three climate scenarios using a degree-day development model. We also assessed economic impacts
of increased beetle outbreaks in terms of the costs of application of preventative silvicultural treatments and potential
economic revenues forgone. Across the southwestern USA, the potential number of beetle generations per year ranged from 1–3+ under
historical climate, an increase of 2–4+ under the minimal warming scenario and 3–5+ under the greatest warming scenario. Economic
benefits of applying basal area reduction treatments to reduce forest susceptibility to beetle outbreaks ranged from 7.75/ha (NM) to7.75/ha
(NM) to 95.69/ha (AZ) under historical conditions, and 47.96/ha (NM) to47.96/ha (NM) to 174.58/ha (AZ) under simulated severe drought conditions.
Basal area reduction treatments that reduce forest susceptibility to beetle outbreak result in higher net present values than
no action scenarios. Coupled with other deleterious consequences associated with beetle outbreaks, such as increased wildfires,
the results suggest that forest thinning treatments play a useful role in a period of climate warming. 相似文献
19.
Shadi Dayyani Chandra A. Madramootoo Peter Enright Guillaume Simard Apurva Gullamudi Shiv O. Prasher Ali Madani 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2009,45(3):779-792
Abstract: The hydrologic performance of DRAINMOD 5.1 was assessed for the southern Quebec region considering freezing/thawing conditions. A tile drained agricultural field in the Pike River watershed was instrumented to measure tile drainage volumes. The model was calibrated using water table depth and subsurface flow data over a two‐year period, while another two‐year dataset served to validate the model. DRAINMOD 5.1 accurately simulated the timing and magnitude of subsurface drainage events. The model also simulated the pattern of water table fluctuations with a good degree of accuracy. The R2 between the observed and simulated daily WTD for calibration was >0.78, and that for validation was 0.93. The corresponding coefficients of efficiency (E) were >0.74 and 0.31. The R2 and E values for calibration/validation of subsurface flow were 0.73/0.48 and 0.72/0.40, respectively. DRAINMOD simulated monthly subsurface flow quite accurately (E > 0.82 and R2 > 0.84). The model precisely simulated daily/monthly drain flow over the entire year, including the winter months. Thus DRAINMOD 5.1 performed well in simulating the hydrology of a cold region. 相似文献
20.
Kren C. Nelson Margaret A. Palmer 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2007,43(2):440-452
ABSTRACT: Multiple anthropogenic stressors, including increased watershed imperviousness, destruction of the riparian vegetation, increased siltation, and changes in climate, will impact streams over the coming century. These stressors will alter water temperature, thus influencing ecological processes and stream biota. Quantitative tools are needed to predict the magnitude and direction of altered thermal regimes. Here, empirical relationships were derived to complement a simple model of in‐stream temperature [developed by Caissie et al. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 25 (1998) 250; Journal of Hydrology 251 (2001) 14], including seasonal temperature shifts linked to land use, and temperature surges linked to localized rainstorms; surges in temperature averaged about 3.5°C and dissipated over about 3 h. These temperature surges occurred frequently at the most urbanized sites (up to 10% of summer days) and could briefly increase maximum temperature by >7°C. The combination of empirical relationships and model show that headwater streams may be more pervasively impacted by urbanization than by climate change, although the two stressors reinforce each other. A profound community shift, from common cold and coolwater species to some of the many warmwater species currently present in smaller numbers, may be expected, as shown by a count of days on which temperature exceeds the “good growth” range for coldwater species. 相似文献