Extinction risk to bird populations caused by DDT exposure

The impact of toxic chemicals on wild animals and plants can be quantified in terms of the enhanced risk of population extinction. To illustrate a method for doing this, we estimated such impact for two bird species: herring gull (Larus argentatus) in Long Island, NY, and sparrowhawk (Accipiter nisus) in eastern England, when they were exposed to DDT (p,p(')-dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane) and its metabolites (called DDTs). The method we used is based on a formula of the mean time to population extinction derived for a stochastic differential equation (the canonical model). The intrinsic rate of natural population growth was estimated from an exponentially growing population, and the intensity of the environmental fluctuation was estimated from the magnitude of population size fluctuation. The effect of exposure to DDTs in reducing the population growth rate was evaluated based on an age-structured population model, by assuming that age-specific fertility is density-dependent and sensitive to DDTs exposure, but age-specific survivorship is not. The results are expressed in terms of the risk equivalent--the decrease in carrying capacity K that causes the same enhancement of extinction risk as chemical exposure at a given level. The risk equivalent can be used in mitigation banking.     

Net Present Biodiversity Value and the Design of Biodiversity Offsets

There is an urgent need to develop sound theory and practice for biodiversity offsets to provide a better basis for offset multipliers, to improve accounting for time delays in offset repayments, and to develop a common framework for evaluating in-kind and out-of-kind offsets. Here, we apply concepts and measures from systematic conservation planning and financial accounting to provide a basis for determining equity across type (of biodiversity), space, and time. We introduce net present biodiversity value (NPBV) as a theoretical and practical measure for defining the offset required to achieve no-net-loss. For evaluating equity in type and space we use measures of biodiversity value from systematic conservation planning. Time discount rates are used to address risk of non-repayment, and loss of utility. We illustrate these concepts and measures with two examples of biodiversity impact–offset transactions. Considerable further work is required to understand the characteristics of these approaches.     

Modeling the effect of climate change on the distribution of threatened medicinal orchid Satyrium nepalense D. Don in India

It is vital to understand the distribution area of a threatened plant species for its better conservation and management planning. Satyrium nepalense (family: Orchidaceae) is a threatened terrestrial orchid species with valuable medicinal and nutritional properties. The survival of S. nepalense in wild conditions has been challenged by increasing global surface temperature. Hence, understanding the impact of climate change on its potential distribution is crucial to conserve and restore this species. In present study, Maxent species distribution modeling algorithm was used to simulate the current distribution of S. nepalense in India and predict the possible range shift in projected future climate scenarios. A set of 19 bioclimatic variables from WorldClim database were used to predict the potential suitable habitats in current climatic condition and four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) scenarios by integrating five General Circulation Models (GCMs) for future distribution modeling of species for the years 2050 and 2070. Furthermore, change analysis was performed to identify the suitable habitat in current and future climate for delineating range expansion (gain), contraction (loss), and stable (no change) habitats of species. The Maxent model predicted that?~?2.38% of the geographical area in India is presently climatically suitable for S. nepalense. The key bioclimatic variables affecting the distribution of studied species were the mean temperature of warmest quarter, mean temperature of wettest quarter, precipitation of warmest quarter, and temperature seasonality. Under future climate change scenarios, the total suitable habitat of S. nepalense will increase slightly in the Himalayan region and likely to migrate towards northward, but in the Western Ghats region, the suitable areas will be lost severely. The net habitat loss under four RCP scenarios was estimated from 26 to 39% for the year 2050, which could further increase from 47 to 60% by the year 2070. The finding of the predictive Maxent modeling approach indicates that warming climates could significantly affect the potential habitats of S. nepalense and hence suitable conservation measures need to be taken to protect this threatened orchid species in wild conditions.

     

Expert Witnesses and Environmental Ldtigation

Environmental legislation is developing rapidly. In addition, considerable attention is being given to the environmental impact of new technological developments. Governments as well as citizens, often through organized groups are placing unprecedented pressures on many industries and even on other parts of the government. Popular feeling has been extremely strong on such matters and resistance so far has not been strong. This is likely to change substantially and the future may see a rapid increase in the number of environmental suits especially if the continued existence of certain industries is threatened. Expert evidence will be needed to support government legislation and to support actions to preserve the environment. Such measures will have inevitable economic implications and will evoke predictable responses. Reconciling these viewpoints will provide a challenge for the community which will probably depend to a larger extent on interpretation in courts of -law. The ability of various experts to give advice through the legal process will be essential if the most effective compromises are to be found. It is the purpose of this paper to discuss the gathering and use of such scientific evidence in environmental lawsuits.     

Ecological risk assessment of pollutant chemicals: extinction risk based on population-level effects

The extinction probability is one of the most useful endpoints that are utilized in conservation biology. A parallel approach is advocated for the ecological risk assessment of chemical pollutants. The presented framework estimates extinction probability induced by pollutant chemicals in order to evaluate ecological hazards of pollution, and is applicable to any biological community (aquatic or terrestrial). The analytical framework, which is based on stochastic population dynamics theory, is briefly explained. The extinction risk estimation is feasible if ecotoxicological data concerning pollutant effects on population growth rate of organisms (the intrinsic rate of natural increase), and if environmental exposure concentration is provided. Tentative risk estimation was made for some agrochemicals and surfactants on zooplankton populations (Daphnia) as target organisms.     

Quantifying the unreported and unaccounted domestic and foreign commercial catch of sharks and rays in Western Australia

Reliable catch information is scarce for most sharks and rays worldwide, with almost half of the stocks considered to be Data Deficient due to limited species-specific catch statistics. Western Australia (WA) hosts a diverse number of shark and ray species, some of which are considered to be threatened with extinction at a global level. Commercial catch statistics only account for shark and ray landings. The present study used the best available information to reconstruct unaccounted and unreported catches for 47 shark and ray taxa to better understand the impact of fishing. For some species, there was good agreement between reconstructed catches and reported landings, but overall reconstructed catches were 57% higher than those derived from official statistics alone, underestimating the actual extraction level for many species. The reconstructed catch time series provide the basis for the assessment of all species of sharks and rays captured in WA, including protected species that interact with commercial and recreational fisheries.Supplementary informationThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01495-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorised users.     

Assessing the impact of source-zone remediation efforts at the contaminant-plume scale through analysis of contaminant mass discharge

The long-term impact of source-zone remediation efforts was assessed for a large site contaminated by trichloroethene. The impact of the remediation efforts (soil vapor extraction and in-situ chemical oxidation) was assessed through analysis of plume-scale contaminant mass discharge, which was measured using a high-resolution data set obtained from 23 years of operation of a large pump-and-treat system. The initial contaminant mass discharge peaked at approximately 7kg/d, and then declined to approximately 2kg/d. This latter value was sustained for several years prior to the initiation of source-zone remediation efforts. The contaminant mass discharge in 2010, measured several years after completion of the two source-zone remediation actions, was approximately 0.2kg/d, which is ten times lower than the value prior to source-zone remediation. The time-continuous contaminant mass discharge data can be used to evaluate the impact of the source-zone remediation efforts on reducing the time required to operate the pump-and-treat system, and to estimate the cost savings associated with the decreased operational period. While significant reductions have been achieved, it is evident that the remediation efforts have not completely eliminated contaminant mass discharge and associated risk. Remaining contaminant mass contributing to the current mass discharge is hypothesized to comprise poorly accessible mass in the source zones, as well as aqueous (and sorbed) mass present in the extensive lower-permeability units located within and adjacent to the contaminant plume. The fate of these sources is an issue of critical import to the remediation of chlorinated-solvent contaminated sites, and development of methods to address these sources will be required to achieve successful long-term management of such sites and to ultimately transition them to closure.     

Model description of an alternately operated wastewater treatment plant--evaluation of the applicability of SimpleTreat

Alternately operated wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) are fundamentally different compared to conventional activated sludge WWTPs with respect to flow patterns and aeration in the biological reactors. Several model applications exist for conventional WWTPs, e.g. SimpleTreat, and in this study the effect of substituting a complex discontinuous operation, involving alternating degradation and flow conditions between two reactors, with one single bioreactor with continuos flow (SimpleTreat) has been investigated by setting up two models representing the respective operation schemes. The discontinuous operation induces fluctuations in the outlet concentrations that are not modelled with the single bioreactor model, however, the fluctuations and the associated uncertainties were found to be insignificant compared to the influence of the input parameter uncertainties on the model results. An empirical relationship between an aggregate pseudo-1st order degradation rate for the single bioreactor model and realistic aerobic and anoxic 1st order degradation rates, respectively, has been established. When using this aggregate degradation rate in the single bioreactor model an outlet concentration can be calculated that deviates no more than 2% from the mean outlet concentration from the alternating operation model. For substances with aerobic half-lives longer than approximately 2 h, which is valid for many chemical substances, the aggregate 1st order degradation rate can be set equal to the aerobic 1st order degradation rate.     

Evaluation of alternative PCB clean-up strategies using an individual-based population model of mink

Population models can be used to place observed toxic effects into an assessment of the impacts on population-level endpoints, which are generally considered to provide greater ecological insight and relevance. We used an individual-based model of mink to evaluate the population-level effects of exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and the impact that different remediation strategies had on mink population endpoints (population size and extinction risk). Our simulations indicated that the initial population size had a strong impact on mink population dynamics. In addition, mink populations were extremely responsive to clean-up scenarios that were initiated soon after the contamination event. In fact, the rate of PCB clean-up did not have as strong a positive effect on mink as did the initiation of clean-up (start time). We show that population-level approaches can be used to understand adverse effects of contamination and to also explore the potential benefits of various remediation strategies.     

Relationship of extinction coefficient, air pollution, and meteorological parameters in an urban area during 2007 to 2009

Light extinction, which is the extent of attenuation of light signal for every distance traveled by light in the absence of special weather conditions (e.g., fog and rain), can be expressed as the sum of scattering and absorption effects of aerosols. In this paper, diurnal and seasonal variations of the extinction coefficient are investigated for the urban areas of Tehran from 2007 to 2009. Cases of visibility impairment that were concurrent with reports of fog, mist, precipitation, or relative humidity above 90 % are filtered. The mean value and standard deviation of daily extinction are 0.49 and 0.39 km^?1, respectively. The average is much higher than that in many other large cities in the world, indicating the rather poor air quality over Tehran. The extinction coefficient shows obvious diurnal variations in each season, with a peak in the morning that is more pronounced in the wintertime. Also, there is a very slight increasing trend in the annual variations of atmospheric extinction coefficient, which suggests that air quality has regressed since 2007. The horizontal extinction coefficient decreased from January to July in each year and then increased between July and December, with the maximum value in the winter. Diurnal variation of extinction is often associated with small values for low relative humidity (RH), but increases significantly at higher RH. Annual correlation analysis shows that there is a positive correlation between the extinction coefficient and RH, CO, PM₁₀, SO₂, and NO₂ concentration, while negative correlation exists between the extinction and T, WS, and O₃, implying their unfavorable impact on extinction variation. The extinction budget was derived from multiple regression equations using the regression coefficients. On average, 44 % of the extinction is from suspended particles, 3 % is from air molecules, about 5 % is from NO₂ absorption, 0.35 % is from RH, and approximately 48 % is unaccounted for, which may represent errors in the data as well as contribution of other atmospheric constituents omitted from the analysis. Stronger regression equation is achieved in the summer, meaning that the extinction is more predictable in this season using pollutant concentrations.     

Fire-LCA study of TV sets with V0 and HB enclosure material

A novel Life-Cycle Assessment model (Fire-LCA) has been defined for the determination of the environmental impact of measures taken to attain a high level of fire safety. This study, which represents the first application of this LCA model, concentrates on a comparison between a TV with an enclosure manufactured with a flame retardant (FR) plastic (V0-rated high impact polystyrene, HIPS, typical for the US market) and one manufactured with a non-flame retardant (HB-rated HIPS, typical for the European market). A fire model has been defined based on international statistics, which indicate that use of V0 rated enclosure material essentially removes the risk of TV fires while approximately 165 TV fires occur per million TVs in Europe each year where the enclosure material is breached. The application of the model indicates that emissions of some key species (such as dibenzodioxins and PAH) are actually lower for the TV with the FR enclosure than for the TV with the NFR enclosure. This has direct reprercussions for the assessment of the environmental impact of the FR TV relative to that of the NFR TV. Finally, when considering the risk associated with the use of flame retardants, it is also important to consider the risk associated with fires. Based on the in-depth analysis of available fire statistics, conducted as a part of this study, it has been estimated that as many as 160 people may die each year in Europe as a direct result of TV fires and as many as 2000 may be injured in the same period.     

Range-wide Yangtze freshwater dolphin expedition: The last chance to see Baiji?

BACKGROUND, AIM AND SCOPE: There are two species of fresh water cetaceans surviving in the Yangtze River system in China: Baiji (Lipotes vexillifer) and Yangtze finless porpoise (Neophocaena phocaenoides asiaeorientalis). As a result of the expansion of human activities on the river, their distribution ranges appear to be decreasing and in the case of the Baiji, are even being restricted to several sections. The Baiji is the world's most critically endangered cetacean species with a population estimated at only a few tens of individuals. The Yangtze finless porpoise is the world's only freshwater-adapted population of the species, and it has been estimated that only around 1,000 individuals remain in the river system. In order to prevent the extinction of Baiji and a sharp decline in the abundance of the porpoise, in situ conservation (i.e. in the river) and two ex situ conservation (i.e. in semi-natural reserves and in captivity) strategies were proposed and have been implemented since the early 1990s. In view of both the severely endangered status of the animals and the severely degraded conditions of their habitats, the feasibility and actual status of these two strategies are raised for discussion. MAIN FEATURES: The threats faced by the cetaceans are mainly from the unfettered exploitation of the river's resources. In the past 20 years, five nature reserves have been established along the river. Imposing maximum prohibition of harmful and illegal fishing methods in the reserves might prolong the process of extinction of these cetaceans in the wild, but so far, the administrative measures taken in the reserves have not yet kept the abundance from sharply declining. As human use of the river and its resources is expected to intensify for many decades into the future, the ability of the river to continue to support these species is certainly undecided. Therefore, rescuing animals from the river and establishing viable breeding populations in seminatural reserves, in which the environment is similar to the main stream of the river, and in captivity, has to be considered urgently as the short-term goal of ex situ strategies. Since the abundance of porpoises is higher than that of the Baiji, we have first established breeding populations of them in the semi-natural reserves and in captivity. But, considering the extremely low density of Baiji in the river, an immediate range-wide Yangtze Baiji survey is an urgent need for locating and capturing sufficient Baiji for successfully establishing a breeding population of them in semi-natural reserves. RESULTS: Two semi-natural reserves (in Shishou, Hubei Province, and Tongling, Anhui Province) have been set up along the river in order to establish breeding populations of the Baiji and the porpoises. So far, several small groups of porpoises that were caught in the main stream of the river have successively been introduced into the semi-natural reserves. Under careful management, these animals in both of the semi-natural reserves not only survive, but can also reproduce naturally and successfully. At least one or three calves were born in each reserve each year. Additionally, a breeding group of porpoises is being established at the Baiji Dolphinarium at the Institute of Hydrobiology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan. There are presently four adults and one calf living in the Dolphinarium. The calf, born in July, 2005, is the first captive bred Yangtze Finless Porpoise in the world. In preparation for the range-wide Yangtze cetacean survey, a 9-day pilot expedition on the river near Wuhan was conducted in March, 2006, in order to develop methods for locating the Baiji. No Baiji were expected to be seen in such a short period but about 40 porpoise sightings were observed. Results of the pilot survey indicated that traditional visual and acoustical survey methods for cetaceans should be adapted to find the elusive Baiji in the river. Currently, the range-wide Yangtze cetacean survey is in preparation. The survey will cover over 1,700 km of the Yangtze River from Yichang to Shanghai, and is expected to provide detailed information on Baiji and porpoise numbers and distribution patterns in the river. DISCUSSION: Although the short-term goal of ex situ conservation is to rescue cetaceans from the river and to establish viable breeding populations in semi-natural reserves and in captivity, the long-term goal of releasing the animals back into the river when the threats have decreased and the natural environment has been improved, should not be neglected. Moreover, the in situ conservation efforts in the natural reserves, and even in the entire Yangtze River system, including the lakes, should not be ignored or abandoned at any time. The activities contributing to the conservation of the Baiji and the porpoise in the wild have the incidental effect of benefiting the entire Yangtze ecosystem and other rare threatened species. The dynamics of the groups of porpoises in semi-natural reserves should be monitored continually, in order to guide the establishment of breeding groups of Baiji in these semi-natural reserves in the near future. CONCLUSIONS: Under the existing severely degraded conditions of the Yangtze system, the sharply fall populations of Baiji and porpoises will not be suspended in the foreseeable future. Therefore, ex situ conservation should be emphasized, and the severely threatened Baiji in the river should be removed and translocated to semi-natural reserves for establishing viable breeding populations. The successful program of capturing, translocating and maintaining finless porpoises in the Shishou semi-natural reserve has demonstrated its adequacy as an ex situ environment for cetaceans. Following the successful pilot survey in the river, the immediate range-wide Yangtze cetacean survey is proposed and is in preparation. The range-wide survey is expected to ensure that any remaining Baiji can be found reliably and captured successfully after the survey. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: During the range-wide survey, not only the Baiji but also the porpoise as well as their habitats should be investigated based on visual and acoustical methods that adapted to the river and the animals. Meanwhile, the current risk levels to the Baiji and porpoises should be evaluated at each area where Baiji or porpoises can be reliably sighted. Any capture efforts should be targeted on the most threatened areas, or where there is maximum risk of injury or death. The immediate track of the Baiji should be carried out once a Baiji is sighted during the range-wide survey in order to obtain the movement route of the animals, which is crucial information for the successful capture operation. Additionally, the need to establish new semi-natural reserves for the porpoises should be placed on the agenda of local and central governments in the near future.     

On the translation of uncertainty from toxicokinetic to toxicodynamic models--the TCDD example

When estimating human health risks from exposure to TCDD using toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic models, it is important to understand how model choice and assumptions necessary for modeling add to the uncertainty of risk estimates. Several toxicokinetic models have been proposed for the risk assessment of dioxins, in particular the elimination kinetics in humans has been a matter of constant debate. For a long time, a simple linear elimination kinetics has been common choice. Thus, it was used for the statistical analysis of the largest occupationally exposed cohort, the German Boehringer cohort. We challenge this assumption by considering, amongst others, a nonlinear modified Michaelis-Menten-type elimination kinetics, the so-called Carrier kinetics. Using the area under the lipid TCDD concentration time curve as dose metrics, we model the time to cancer-related death using the Cox proportional hazards model as toxicodynamic model. This risk assessment set-up was simulated in order to quantify uncertainty of both the dose (TCDD body burden) and the risk estimates, depending on the use of the kinetic model, variations of carcinogenic effect of TCDD and variations of latency period (lag time). If past exposure is estimated assuming a linear elimination kinetics although a Carrier kinetics actually holds, then high exposures in reality will be underestimated through statistical analysis and low exposures will be overestimated, respectively. This bias will carry over on the estimated individual concentration-time curves and the therefrom derived TCDD dose metric values. Using biased dose values when estimating a dose-response relationship will finally lead to biased risk estimates. The extent of bias and the decrease of precision are quantified in selected scenarios through this simulation approach. Our findings are in concordance with recent results in the field of dioxin risk assessment. They also reinforce the general demand for the scheduled uncertainty assessments in risk analyses.     

Analysis of a summertime PM2.5 and haze episode in the mid-Atlantic region

Observations of the mass and chemical composition of particles less than 2.5 microm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5), light extinction, and meteorology in the urban Baltimore-Washington corridor during July 1999 and July 2000 are presented and analyzed to study summertime haze formation in the mid-Atlantic region. The mass fraction of ammoniated sulfate (SO4(2-)) and carbonaceous material in PM2.5 were each approximately 50% for cleaner air (PM2.5< 10 microg/m3) but changed to approximately 60% and approximately 20%, respectively, for more polluted air (PM2.5>30 microg/m3). This signifies the role of SO4(2-) in haze formation. Comparisons of data from this study with the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments network suggest that SO4(2-) is more regional than carbonaceous material and originates in part from upwind source regions. The light extinction coefficient is well correlated to PM2.5 mass plus water associated with inorganic salt, leading to a mass extinction efficiency of 7.6 +/- 1.7 m2/g for hydrated aerosol. The most serious haze episode occurring between July 15 and 19, 1999, was characterized by westerly transport and recirculation slowing removal of pollutants. At the peak of this episode, 1-hr PM2.5 concentration reached approximately 45 microg/m3, visual range dropped to approximately 5 km, and aerosol water likely contributed to approximately 40% of the light extinction coefficient.     

Investigation of land use changes in rural areas using MCDM and CA-Markov chain and their effects on water quality and soil fertility in south of Iran

The purpose of the study is to predict drought changes in Dariun, Fars Province, and their impact on water and soil quality. To prepare drought, water, and soil quality zoning maps, Landsat satellite images and the kriging method were used. The fuzzy maps and weights for each parameter were then determined using fuzzy and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) methods. Additionally, cellular automata (CA)-Markov chains were used in order to predict the impact of drought changes on water and soil quality. Using the fuzzy-AHP method, water quality and soil fertility in 2020 were lower compared to previous years, mainly because of land use changes that increased pollution. Based on results of the Markov and CA-Markov chains, approximately 31% of the region will have very poor levels of soil fertility and water quality in 2050. Further, based on remote sensing indicators, it is determined that about 25% of the region will be at high risk of drought in 2050. Thus, if adequate management of the region is not done, the possibility of living in these areas may diminish in the coming years due to drought and deteriorated water and soil quality.

     

Ocean pollution from land-based sources: East China Sea, China

The environment of East China Sea (ECS) has been faced by huge stresses from anthropogenic activities and population growth in the Yangtze River drainage basin and the areas along the coasts. Improper use of natural resources and short-term economic objectives have resulted in severe environmental degradation in a fairly short time frame and the degradation has now reached a level where the health and well being of the coastal populations are threatened. The main pollutants are inorganic nitrogen, phosphate, oil hydrocarbons, organic matters and heavy metals. Nutrients cause eutrophication of the coastal waters and the estuarine area and very often stimulate the occurrence of red tides. The environmental pollution of Yangtze River basin directly impact on the state of the marine environment in the ECS. The ecosystem stability is maintained by a steady water discharge from the river, that mixes with the marine salty water in the estuary, and the sediment loads from the river that balance ocean erosion in the delta and its adjacent coastal area. The large-scale water transfer and dam constructions in the Yangtze River basin will change this basis. For the ECS the challenge is to reverse the negative processes taking place and to restore ecosystem balance. The main challenge is to integrate socioeconomic and environmental decision making in order to promote sustainable development. A better understanding of the driving forces in society that cause these environmental pressures is required in order to overcome these obstacles. International cooperation may be an important contributor to the progress and in particular provide access to financial, technological, scientific and human resource assistance.     

Computer simulations of terrestrial carbon and atmospheric interactions

Terrestrial carbon modelling shows that the Goudriaan and Ketner and Esser simulations fit historical data well, but the results are sensitive to the decomposition rate coefficient of old sediment carbon. Modification of this rate constant over time, weighted by emission increases or linear increases, changes the model results to fit historic ice core data. Very old sediment carbon decomposition has an effect on the model postdictions only when the rate constant is 10 times greater than that predicted from sediment studies. Future estimates show that a maximum change from agriculture to forest has a small effect on abating emission increases. Controlling emission rates at 5.1 x 10(15) g C/a will result in almost a 50% increase in atmospheric CO(2) in 200 years, and reducing emission rates to 1960 levels (approximately 2.5 x 10(15) g C/a) immediately will still result in an increase in atmospheric CO(2).     

Food nitrogen footprint reductions related to a balanced Japanese diet

Dietary choices largely affect human-induced reactive nitrogen accumulation in the environment and resultant environmental problems. A nitrogen footprint (NF) is an indicator of how an individual’s consumption patterns impact nitrogen pollution. Here, we examined the impact of changes in the Japanese diet from 1961 to 2011 and the effect of alternative diets (the recommended protein diet, a pescetarian diet, a low-NF food diet, and a balanced Japanese diet) on the food NF. The annual per capita Japanese food NF has increased by 55% as a result of dietary changes since 1961. The 1975 Japanese diet, a balanced omnivorous diet that reportedly delays senescence, with a protein content similar to the current level, reduced the current food NF (15.2 kg N) to 12.6 kg N, which is comparable to the level in the recommended protein diet (12.3 kg N). These findings will help consumers make dietary choices to reduce their impacts on nitrogen pollution.     

The environmental risks of neonicotinoid pesticides: a review of the evidence post 2013

Neonicotinoid pesticides were first introduced in the mid-1990s, and since then, their use has grown rapidly. They are now the most widely used class of insecticides in the world, with the majority of applications coming from seed dressings. Neonicotinoids are water-soluble, and so can be taken up by a developing plant and can be found inside vascular tissues and foliage, providing protection against herbivorous insects. However, only approximately 5% of the neonicotinoid active ingredient is taken up by crop plants and most instead disperses into the wider environment. Since the mid-2000s, several studies raised concerns that neonicotinoids may be having a negative effect on non-target organisms, in particular on honeybees and bumblebees. In response to these studies, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) was commissioned to produce risk assessments for the use of clothianidin, imidacloprid and thiamethoxam and their impact on bees. These risk assessments concluded that the use of these compounds on certain flowering crops poses a high risk to bees. On the basis of these findings, the European Union adopted a partial ban on these substances in May 2013. The purpose of the present paper is to collate and summarise scientific evidence published since 2013 that investigates the impact of neonicotinoids on non-target organisms. Whilst much of the recent work has focused on the impact of neonicotinoids on bees, a growing body of evidence demonstrates that persistent, low levels of neonicotinoids can have negative impacts on a wide range of free-living organisms.     

A yearly maximum sea level simulator and its applications: A Stockholm case study

A yearly maximum sea level simulator for Stockholm is presented. The simulator combines extreme sea level estimates and mean sea level rise projections into a joint probabilistic framework. The framework can be used, for example, to assess the risk that new structures placed at the current minimum allowed height above the sea level can become flooded in the future. Such assessments can be used to underpin future building free levels, which would be a great improvement over the much more arbitrary criteria in use today. Another strong point of the framework is that it can be used to quantify the influence of uncertainties in mean sea level projections, estimates of sea level extremes and future emission scenarios on the risk of flooding. For Stockholm mean sea level uncertainty is found to be much more important than extreme sea level uncertainty. The framework is also set-up to test adaptation measures. It is found that protections that are built once the mean sea level has risen above some given threshold can be very efficient. Lastly, the framework is embedded into a simple decision problem that can be used to calculate risk/reward ratios for land development as a function of height above today’s mean sea level.