Modeling of land use and reservoir effects on nonpoint source pollution in a highly agricultural basin

Nonpoint source (NPS) pollution is tightly linked to land use activities that determine the sources and magnitudes of pollutant loadings to stream water. The pollutant loads may also be alleviated within reservoirs because of the physical interception resulting from changed hydrological regimes and other biochemical processes. It is important but challenging to assess the NPS pollution processes with human effects due to the measurement limitations. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of human activities such as land uses and reservoir operation on the hydrological and NPS pollution processes in a highly agricultural area-the Iowa River Basin-using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The evaluation of model performance at multiple sites reveals that SWAT can consistently simulate the daily streamflow, and monthly/annual sediment and nutrient loads (nitrate nitrogen and mineral phosphorus) in the basin. We also used the calibrated model to estimate the trap efficiencies of sediment (～78%) and nutrients (～30%) in the Coralville Reservoir within the basin. These non-negligible effects emphasize the significance of incorporating the sediment and nutrient removal mechanisms into watershed system studies. The spatial quantification of the critical NPS pollution loads can help identify hot-spot areas that are likely locations for the best management practices.     

Implications of climate change for evaporation from bare soils in a Mediterranean environment

The purpose of this study was to predict quantitative changes in evaporation from bare soils in the Mediterranean climate region of Turkey in response to the projections of a regional climate model developed in Japan (hereafter RCM). Daily RCM data for the estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ET _r) and soil evaporation were obtained for the periods of 1994–2003 and 2070–2079. Potential evaporation (E _p) from bare soils was calculated using the Penman–Monteith equation with a surface resistance of zero. Simulation of actual soil evaporation (E _a) was carried out using Aydin model (Aydin et al., Ecological Modelling 182:91–105, 2005) combined with Aydin and Uygur (2006, A model for estimating soil water potential of bare fields. In Proceedings of the 18th International Soil Meeting (ISM) on Soils Sustaining Life on Earth, Managing Soil and Technology, Sanliurfa, 477–480pp.) model of predicting soil water potential at the top surface layer of a bare soil, after performances of Aydin model (R ² = 94.0%) and Aydin and Uygur model (R ² = 97.6) were tested. The latter model is based on the relations among potential soil evaporation, hydraulic diffusivity, and soil wetness, with some simplified assumptions. Input parameters of the model are simple and easily obtainable such as climatic parameters used to compute the potential soil evaporation, average diffusivity for the drying soil, and volumetric water content at field capacity. The combination of Aydin and Aydin and Uygur models appeared to be useful in estimating water potential of soils and E _a from bare soils, with only a few parameters. Unlike ET _r and E _p projected to increase by 92 and 69 mm (equivalent to 8.0 and 7.3% increases) due to the elevated evaporative demand of the atmosphere, respectively, E _a from bare soils is projected to reduce by 50 mm (equivalent to a 16.5% decrease) in response to a decrease in rainfall by 46% in the Mediterranean region of Turkey by the 2070s predicted by RCM, and consequently, to decreased soil wetness in the future.     

Regional impact analysis of climate change on natural and managed forests in the Federal State of Brandenburg, Germany

A methodology for regional application of forest simulation models has been developed as part of an assessment of possible climate change impacts in the Federal state of Brandenburg (Germany). Here we report on the application of a forest gap model to analyse the impacts of climate change on species composition and productivity of natural and managed forests in Brandenburg using a statistical method for the development of climate scenarios. The forest model was linked to a GIS that includes soil and groundwater table maps, as well as gridded climate data with a resolution of 10 × 10 km and simulated a steady-state species composition which was classified into forest types based on the biomass distribution between species. Different climate scenarios were used to assess the sensitivity of species composition to climate change. The simulated forest distribution patterns for current climate were compared with a map of Potential Natural Vegetation (PNV) of Brandenburg.In order to analyse the possible consequences of climate change on forest management, we used forest inventory data to initialize the model with representative forest stands. Simulation experiments with two different management strategies indicated how forest management could respond to the projected impacts of climate change. The combination of regional analysis of natural forest dynamics under climate change with simulation experiments for managed forests outlines possible trends for the forest resources. The implications of the results are discussed, emphasizing the regional differences in environmental risks and the adaptation potentials of forestry in Brandenburg.     

Environmental Monitoring of Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes in a Mediterranean Region of Turkey

Unprecedented rates of human-induced changes in land use and land cover (LULC) at local and regional scales lead to alterations of global biogeochemical cycles. Driving forces behind LULC changes mainly include rapid growth rates of population and consumption, lack of valuation of ecological services, poverty, ignorance of biophysical limitations, and use of ecologically incompatible technologies. One of the major ecological tragedies of the commons in a Mediterranean region of Turkey is the loss of Lake Amik at the expense of increasing the area of croplands, which used to provide vital ecosystem goods and services for the region. In this study, we aimed at quantifying the effects of past land-use transitions on soil organic carbon (SOC) pools (0–20 cm) in a Mediterranean region of 3930 km², between 1972 and 2000. LULC changes were quantified from a time series of satellite images of Landsat-MSS in 1972, Landsat-5 TM in 1987, and Landsat-7 ETM+ in 2000 using geographic information systems. The study showed that the increase in croplands between 1972 and 1987 took place at the expense of the irreversible losses of Lake Amik and its related wetlands of over 53 km². In the period of 1972 to 2000, croplands, settlements, and evergreen forests increased by 174%, 106%, and 14%, respectively. The increase in settlements occurred mostly to the detriment of croplands. Given the average rates of all the land-use transitions, and associated changes in SOC density for the study region of 3930 km², total SOC pool was estimated to decrease by 14.1% from 130.1 Mt in 1972 to 111.7 Mt in 2000.     

Magnetic mapping of fly-ash pollution and heavy metals from soil samples around a point source in a dry tropical environment

The Singrauli region in the southeastern part of Uttar Pradesh, India is one of the most polluted industrial sites of Asia. It encompasses 11 open cast coalmines and six thermal power stations that generate about 7,500 MW (about 10% of India’s installed generation capacity) electricity. Thermal power plants represent the main source of pollution in this region, emitting six million tonnes of fly-ash per annum. Fly-ash is deposited on soils over a large area surrounding thermal power plants. Fly-ashes have high surface concentrations of several toxic elements (heavy metals) and high atmospheric mobility. Fly ash is produced through high-temperature combustion of fossil fuel rich in ferromagnetic minerals. These contaminants can be identified using rock-magnetic methods. Magnetic susceptibility is directly linked to the concentration of ferromagnetic minerals, primarily high values of magnetite. In this study, magnetic susceptibility of top soil samples collected from surrounding areas of a bituminous-coal-fired power plant were measured to identify areas of high emission levels and to chart the spatial distribution of airborne solid particles. Sites close to the power plant have shown higher values of susceptibility that decreases with increasing distance from the source. A significant correlation between magnetic susceptibility and heavy metal content in soils is found. A comparison of the spatial distribution of magnetic susceptibility with heavy-metal concentrations in soil samples suggests that magnetic measurements can be used as a rapid and inexpensive method for proxy mapping of air borne pollution due to industrial activity.     

Dynamic Modeling of the Ratio Volatile Fatty Acids/Bicarbonate Alkalinity in a UASB Reactor for Potato Processing Wastewater Treatment

In this work, dynamic mathematical model for the prediction of the operational parameter volatile fatty acids/bicarbonate alkalinity (VFA/ALK) in a UASB reactor was developed. The dynamic modeling technique was applied successfully to a two-year data record from an industrial wastewater treatment plant of a potato processing industry. The technique used included regression analysis by residuals. Seventeen parameters were examined including the following: wastewater's flow rate, reactor's temperature and pH, total and soluble influent COD, wastewater's temperature and pH, total and soluble effluent COD, volatile fatty acids, alkalinity, biogas production rate and each parameter with a time lag of up to 10 days. Finally, after all parameters and all time lag trials the best fitted model was developed. The model's adequacy was checked by χ² test for a data record of the same UASB reactor but at a different time period and proved to be satisfactory. Additionally, the model's ability to predict and to control the plant's operation via VFA/ALK was examined. Through this model, in contrary to steady state models, various aspects of the process can be enlighten, such as the fact that the hydrolysis of starch requires at least a resident time of seven days.