Confronting a Surfeit of People: Reducing Global Human Numbers to Sustainable Levels An Essay on Population Two Centuries after Malthus

It has become increasingly evident over the past several decades that there is a growing tension between two seemingly irreconcilable trends: (1) moderate to conservative demographic projections that world population size could easily reach 9 billion (or more) by the mid-to-late twenty-first century; and (2) prudent and increasingly reliable scientific estimates suggesting that the Earth's long-term sustainable carrying capacity (at an 'adequate to comfortable' standard of living) may not be much greater than 2–3 billion. I therefore argue that it is now time – indeed, past time – to develop and implement a set of well-conceived, clearly articulated, broadly equitable and internationally coordinated sociopolitical initiatives that go beyond merely slowing the growth – or even the stabilization – of global human numbers. After summarizing a number of 'inescapable realities' that the human species must soon confront, and notwithstanding the considerable difficulties involved in establishing rational and defensible global population optimums, I conclude with several suggestions relevant to the next logical step: how best to bring about a very significant reduction in global population size over the next two to three centuries. To the extent that there is still time to choose whether this dramatic decrease will be under conscious control or essentially chaotic, these proposals are cautiously optimistic.     

Farmers' Willingness-to-Pay for Environment and Human Health and Adoption of IPM

Abstract

Although chemical control of pests increases crop production, it brings a lot of damage to environment and human health. There exist a number of alternative methods that are not so harmful to environment and human health. However, whether and how much in extent these technologies adopted are plausible depends on the comparison of benefit- cost between chemical control and the alternative control methods (such as Integrated Pest Management, IPM) and farmers' willingness-to-pay (WTP) for environment and human health. Using contingent valuation method (CVM), the author investigates farmers' WTP for environment and human health, recognizes the factors influencing WTP, and accordingly points out the importance of pest control technology extension and government regulation of pesticides.     

Farmers'''' Willingness-to-Pay for Environment and Human Health and Adoption of IPM

Although chemical control of pests increases crop production, it brings a lot of damage to environment and human health. There exist a number of alternative methods that are not so harmful to environment and human health. However, whether and how much in extent these technologies adopted are plausible depends on the comparison of benefit-cost between chemical control and the alternative control methods (such as Integrated Pest Management, IPM) and farmers' willingness-to-pay (WTP) for envirorment and human health. Using contingent valuation method (CVM), the author investigates farmers' WTP for environment and human health, recognizes the factors influencing WTP, and accordingly points out the importance of pest control technology extension and government regulation of pesticides.     

Analysis of Integration Mode of Human Resources Development and Cultural Ecology in Hebei Province

People and culture coexist and human resources development and regional cultural ecology integrate.The present thesis for the first time puts forward the integration mode of human resources development and cultural ecology,argues that personnel innovation should be attracted by motive injection,open culture,resources integration,culture dilution,thinking blending and people-orientation and discusses the transmission mechanism for functions of integration mode of human resources development and cultural ecology from the aspects of cultural values,living styles and cultural industry.     

人类承载力"K值"影响因素

人类承载力“K值”表示地球能承载人口的极限值。“K值”的影响因素的繁多以及相互间的联系使得“K值”确切数值的计算成为一项非常艰巨的任务。通过分析人类与自然的关系，探讨人类承载力的微观影响因素及其相互关系，从开放生态系统的性质讨论人类承载力的宏观影响因素。从而得出人类承载力受渐变和突变因素的结合控制。以此揭开承载和调控人类种群的机理并预测“K值”的可能发展趋势，达到避免计算“K值”确切数值而又能提出人口增长对策和可持续发展的指导意见的目的。     

Analysis of Integration Mode of Human Resources Development and Cultural Ecology in Hebei Province

Abstract

People and culture coexist and human resources development and regional cultural ecology integrate. The present thesis for the first time puts forward the integration mode of human resources development and cultural ecology, argues that personnel innovation should be attracted by motive injection, open culture, resources integration, culture dilution, thinking blending and people-orientation and discusses the transmission mechanism for functions of integration mode of human resources development and cultural ecology from the aspects of cultural values, living styles and cultural industry.     

Human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) in Nova Scotia,Canada

Photosynthetically fixed energy from the sun, in the form of net primary production, ultimately supports the majority of life on earth. Given the importance of this energy source, we calculate the human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) for the province of Nova Scotia, Canada. We find that over 25% of potentially available production is appropriated by humans through harvest (forestry and agriculture) and land cover change. The level of appropriation in Nova Scotia is close to the global average, when methodological differences between studies are taken into account, but substantially less than in Austria and India where detailed surveys have also been conducted. Furthermore, HANPP is not distributed evenly throughout the province, but is instead concentrated in the north-central counties, where appropriation reaches 50%. We discuss the implications of these results, and the novel method used to obtain them, in the context of biophysical assessment and the species-energy hypothesis.     

Opportunities for redistributed manufacturing and digital intelligence as enablers of a circular economy

The linear production of consumer goods is characterised by mass manufacture by multinational enterprises and globally dispersed supply chains. The current centralised model has created a distance between the manufacturer and end user, limiting the opportunity for intelligent circular approaches for production and consumption. Through a mixed method approach, opportunities of circularity are explored for the consumer goods sector. The study presents four lenses to analyse three enterprises through a multi-case study approach to explore the potential of digital intelligence and redistributed manufacturing (RDM) as enablers of circular business models. In addition, the study examines whether Discrete Event Simulation can be used to evaluate the circular scenarios identified through quantifying flows of material that determine traditional economic value (cost/tonne). The mixed method approach demonstrates that, a qualitative systemic analysis can reveal opportunities for circularity, gained through implementing ‘digital intelligence’ and distributed models of production and consumption. Furthermore, simulations can provide a quantified evaluation on the effects of introducing circular activities across a supply chain.     

Energy and exergy analysis of a PCM-based solar powered winter air conditioning using desiccant wheel during nocturnal

In this paper, heating and humidification of air for space have been carried out by using a phase change material (PCM)-based solar-powered desiccant wheel air conditioning (SPDWAC) in winter. The analysis of the setup has been done at different air flow rates. At low and high air flow rates, system has mean thermal coefficient of performance of 0.121 and 0.172, respectively, and mean exergy efficiency of 0.0787 and 0.0846, respectively. The mean thermal coefficient of performance of the system at high air flow rate (127.23 kg h-1) is 1.42 times the low air flow rate (63.62 kg h-1) and average exergy efficiency of the system at high air flow rate is 1.07 times the low air flow rate. It is observed that with an increase in air flow rate, efficiency of the evacuated tube solar air collector (ETSAC) increases. The average efficiency of the ETSAC at high air flow rate is 15.60%. The maximum average energy efficiency (17.80%) and exergy efficiency (17.08%) of the PCM storage system have been obtained at high air flow rate. The overall performance of the system showed that the use of PCM storage is feasible to run the system in winter during the hours of darkness.     

Multi-scales Analysis of Driving Forces on Land Use/Cover Change in China： Taking Farmland Returning to Forest or Grassland as a Case

Increasing populations are causing an increase in food demands, and the area of cultivated land expands every year. Inappropriate land transition from ecology to production results in the constant decline of the ecological security level and influences the regional sustainable development. Adjusting unreasonable land use mode and reconstructing natural land cover are important ways to maintain and improve the ecological environment. Also reclaiming farmland as areas for forests and grasslands （FRFG） is another way. Successful implementation of FRFG in China is the result of comprehensive effect of the multi-scales driving forces. This paper analyses the driving forces of FRFG in China on a national （country） -regional （province） - local （county） - household （farmer） level scale, and the results are： driving forces at the national scale include ecological and food security and the western development of China; at the regional scale, ecological and economic benefits become the main factors to influence the dimension of FRFG under the same policy. The driving forces can be divided into 6 types： industrial structure adjustment, water source protection, flood prevention, the Three-Gorge Project protection, reduction of the amount of sediment flowing into the Yellow River and wind erosion desertification prevention. The driving forces at the local scale can be divided into 12 types with developing leading industries, increasing farmers＇ income and improving agricultural production conditions as the main types; at the household scale, the national policy meeting farmers＇ demands and the optimization of individual interests are all driving forces.     

Multi-scales Analysis of Driving Forces on Land Use/Cover Change in China: Taking Farmland Returning to Forest or Grassland as a Case

Abstract

Increasing populations are causing an increase in food demands, and the area of cultivated land expands every year. Inappropriate land transition from ecology to production results in the constant decline of the ecological security level and influences the regional sustainable development. Adjusting unreasonable land use mode and reconstructing natural land cover are important ways to maintain and improve the ecological environment. Also reclaiming farmland as areas for forests and grasslands (FRFG) is another way. Successful implementation of FRFG in China is the result of comprehensive effect of the multi-scales driving forces. This paper analyses the driving forces of FRFG in China on a national (country)—regional (province)—local (county)—household (farmer) level scale, and the results are: driving forces at the national scale include ecological and food security and the western development of China; at the regional scale, ecological and economic benefits become the main factors to influence the dimension of FRFG under the same policy. The driving forces can be divided into 6 types: industrial structure adjustment, water source protection, flood prevention, the Three-Gorge Project protection, reduction of the amount of sediment flowing into the Yellow River and wind erosion desertification prevention. The driving forces at the local scale can be divided into 12 types with developing leading industries, increasing farmers' income and improving agricultural production conditions as the main types; at the household scale, the national policy meeting farmers' demands and the optimization of individual interests are all driving forces.     

Depth profiles of radiocarbon and carbon isotopic compositions of organic matter and CO2 in a forest soil

Depth profiles of the specific activities of (14)C and carbon isotopic compositions (Delta(14)C, delta(13)C) in soil organic matter and soil CO(2) in a Japanese larch forest were determined. For investigating the transport of CO(2) in soil, specific activities of (14)C, Delta(14)C and delta(13)C in the organic layer, and atmospheric CO(2) in the same forest area were also determined. The specific activity of (14)C and Delta(14)C in the soil organic matter decreased with the increase in depth of 0-60cm, while that of soil CO(2) did not vary greatly at a soil depth of 13-73cm and was more prevalent than that of atmospheric CO(2). Peaks of specific activities of (14)C appeared at the depth of 0-4cm and Delta(14)C values were positive in the depth range from 0 to 15cm. These results suggest that the present soil at a depth of 0-4cm had been produced from the mid-1950s up until 1963, and the bomb C had reached the depth of 15cm in the objective soil area. The delta(13)C in the soil organic matter increased at the depth of 0-55cm, while that of soil CO(2) collected on 8 November 2004 decreased rapidly at the depth of 0-13cm and only slightly at the depth of 53-73cm. By combining the Delta(14)C and delta(13)C of the respective components and using the Keeling plot approach it was made clear that the entering of atmospheric CO(2) showed a large contribution to soil CO(2) at the depth of 0-13cm and a negligible contribution at the depth of 53-73cm for soil air collected on 8 November 2004. Respiration of live roots was presumed to be the main source of soil CO(2) at the depth of 53-73cm on 8 November 2004.