Famine forecasting; Prices and peasant behaviour in Northern Ethiopia

This paper, completed in January 1984, begins by briefly outlining the contrasting views of price behaviour during the last Ethiopian famine (1972–1974) put forward by Seaman and Holt (1980) and Sen (1981). A hypothesis is developed to account for peasant behaviour and price responses under developing famine conditions. This is then tested with data recently made available. The paper concludes by summarizing the findings and their implications for famine forecasting, and argues that famine conditions in Northern Ethiopia are likely to worsen during 1984.     

Cross-Border Relief Operations in Eritrea and Tigray

Cross-border relief operations to non-government controlled regions of Eritrea and Tigray have been on-going since before the 1984/85 famine in Ethiopia became international news. Little is officially known about the character and scale of these operations, however, as a result of their politically sensitive nature. The background, assets and limitations of the operations are examined, with a focus on the period 1985–1988. The report also addresses issues arising from the delivery of assistance in the context of so-called internal wars against the central government.     

Drought and famine relief in Ethiopia

This item was filed by an independent observer in March 1983. The overall context given of the relief operation remained valid up to at least the mid-year point, with one well-publicised exception. Late in April, the town of Korem, in northern Wollo region, was seized for several days by the Tigray People's Liberation Front. The famine relief operation was completely disrupted, and the shelter population dispersed. The official relief programme resumed slowly after some 6 to 7 weeks; of the relief workers captured by the TPLF, the expatriate contingent was released in Sudan in the second week of June.     

鸟儿与战争

自从有了战争,许多动物就成为人类的"战友",如我国战国时期齐国田单用火牛阵大破燕军。到了近代和现代,人们已把许多动物训练成"士兵",去执行一些常人无法完成的特殊战斗任务。这样,在战争利益的驱动下,本来一些温顺可爱的动物也成了战场上的勇士。本文仅讲鸽子与海鸥参战的故事。     

The political economy of complex emergency and recovery in northern Ethiopia

During the 1980s Ethiopia experienced the effects of conflict, drought and famine on a scale far greater than many CPEs elsewhere. In May 1991, after the decisive defeat of the military dictatorship of Mengistu Haile Mariam by the Ethiopian Peoples' Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) and after decades of civil war, drought and famine, Ethiopia faced the prospects of peace and of much needed development. This paper explores both Ethiopia's experience of conflict and humanitarian intervention in areas of Tigray held by the Tigray Peoples' Liberation Front (TPLF) during the 1980s, and its experience of post-conflict rehabilitation and reconstruction in the 1990s. It first deals with the roots of the conflicts within Ethiopia: political marginalisation, heavy state intervention and highly extractive relations between state and peasants, inappropriate and failed development policies, ethnic identity and the politicisation of ethnicity. The Mengistu regime's counter-insurgency measures are then contrasted with the policies and programmes of the TPLF, Ethiopia's most effective opposition movement and the leading element in the EPRDF, and its achievements in mobilising popular support: its establishment of democratically elected structures of local governance and its famine relief distribution programme.     

拥有自然保护区最多的地级市

赤峰市位于内蒙古自治区中东部,地处内蒙古高原向东北平原的过渡地带,大兴安岭和燕山两大山脉在境内交汇,有森林、草原、沙地、湿地等丰富的生态系统,是典型的生态脆弱带。由于地形地貌的复杂、地理位置的独特,这里成了东北、华北、蒙新生物区系的过渡带。过渡带的边缘效应造就了这里丰富的生物多样性物种,是我国北方生物多样性较丰富的地区之一。     

论楔块运动与地震带的关系

目前，地震和地震带的成因问题仍然是世界性的科学难题。本研究认为圈闭隐爆作用能形成正楔块、倒楔块；负荷均衡作用能引起楔块运动；楔块运动形成了断陷盆地，也就是说，地堑、地垒是楔块运动的产物；最终，试图通过对楔块运动模式的研究揭示地壳凹陷与地震带的成因问题。     

Climate variability,political crises,and historical population displacements in Ethiopia

Abstract

El Niño events from the 1970s through the 1990s caused extended droughts in Ethiopia. These droughts were followed by famine and political turmoil that resulted in radical changes of government, secession, and a massive program of population redistribution. Cartographic analysis of Ethiopian census data from 1984 and 1994 shows changes in demographic patterns. The consequences of government-imposed migration policies, whose catalyst was the climate variability caused by repeated El Niño events, were changes in the ethnic composition of certain Ethiopian regions and changes in the geographic pattern of population growth.     

Selective feeding programmes in Ethiopia and East Sudan–1985/1986

A survey of thirty-four feeding programmes in Ethiopia and East Sudan was undertaken. Wie differences were found between the two countries and also within Ethiopia. Irrelugar general ration distribution was commonplace in Ethiopia, thus placing an extra strain on selective feeding programmes. The principal admission criteria to Selected Feeding Programmes (SFPs) were weight for height categories. The cut-off stages of the emergency. Useful compasirions between programmes were hampered by such differences, as well as by the different methods of reporting data.
The types of food usd in programmes depended on availability and included high energyu drinks, poridges, take-home pre-mixes and sometimes indigenous foods. A large number of foods e.g. cornedbedef, chicken paté, noodles, da4tes etc. Some added interesting variety and added nutritional value to the diet, while others caused more problems than they solved due to their low acceptability, inappropriate packaging, limited accompanying information and complex an costly preparation. The imlementation of food dination policies by donors and consignees regarding appropriate foodstuffs and their recommended use was considered to be the major solution to this problem.     

Food Security Reserve Policy in Ethiopia: A Case Study of Experience and Implications

Food security reserve policy in Ethiopia since 1982 is reviewed in the light of the limited progress made elsewhere in Africa in establishing and maintaining such reserves. While the reserve played some role in dealing with the crisis of 1987/8, donor confidence was eroded by unauthorised drawings from the reserve and other factors. In 1992, the Ethiopian Food Security Reserve Authority was established to provide a system of management more acceptable to donors. This had led to donor pledges to replenish the reserve, though it remains well below the target level. Despite increased government commitment of funds, donor confidence remains fragile and the reserve remains dependent on donor support. The place of the reserve in national food security policy is not yet fully defined. Conclusions are drawn for food security reserve policy in Ethiopia and elsewhere in Africa.     

Malnutrition and Mortality During Recent Famines in Ethiopia: Implications for Food Aid and Rehabilitation

The 1972-73 and 1984-85 famines varied significantly among different populations within famine areas at the regional, community and household levels. Political and social factors were crucial in this pattern. Evidence from both pastoral and farming areas indicates that the development of community-based resources may be less disruptive socially and economically and result in less morbidity and mortality than dependence on relief shelters. Areas needing further study are identified.     

美苏气象武器战引发的灾难

美国引飓风袭击洪都拉斯气象武器是指通过人工制造风云、雨雪、雷电等自然现象．对敌人实施打击的一种特殊武器。早在一百多年前．一些科学家就开始研究这类武器．他们中的代表人物是美国著名科学家忒斯拉．他曾于19世纪末制造了一台超大功率的变压器．能产生10千瓦的人工闪电,传播距离可达50公里。此后,美国军方逐渐重视气象武器的研究。1940年底．美国政府齐始实施代号为“凤凰”的控制天气计划．该计划是忒斯拉理论的深入发展．以人工制造雷电扩展到控制各种天气变化。     

Spatio-temporal dynamics of malaria expansion under climate change in semi-arid areas of Ethiopia

ABSTRACT

Malaria is a leading and severe disease in Ethiopia, particularly like the Tigray region. The main objectives of the study were to model the influence of climate change on malaria transmission in Tigray and identify environmental variables that contribute to malaria. Aiming these objectives, Kafta Humera, Raya Azebo and Laelay Adiabo districts were purposively selected based on their malaria prevalence. Two hundred and nine mosquito occurrence points were collected from the study area. Collected occurrence points, altitude and 19 bioclimatic variables were run in Maxent software. Malaria transmission was simulated for themiddle and end of the twenty-first century using two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios driving ensemble of three general circulation models. The results show that the area suitable for malaria transmission is simulated to increase by 93.8% (RCP4.5) and 113.9% (RCP8.5) by mid-century and by 161% (RCP4.5) and 149% (RCP8.5) by the end of the twenty-first century, when compared with the historical baseline. This indicates that the area suitable for malaria transmission is simulated to increase due to climate change over the region. Therefore, the study recommends well prevention and control of malaria to ensure the health of people.     

Impact of a commercial destocking relief intervention in Moyale district, southern Ethiopia

A commercial destocking intervention was piloted in southern Ethiopia during the drought of early 2006. The intervention led to the purchase of an estimated 20,000 cattle valued at USD 1.01 million. On average, destocked households received USD 186 from the sale of cattle--approximately 5,405 households were involved. In terms of aid investment, the approximate cost-benefit ratio was 41:1. During the drought, income from destocking accounted for 54.2 per cent of household income (n = 114 households), and was used to buy food, care for livestock, meet various domestic expenses, support relatives, and either pay off debts or augment savings. Seventy-nine per cent of the income derived from destocking was used to buy local goods or services. Expenditure on livestock care amounted to 36.5 per cent of local spending, and included the private transportation of livestock to better grazing areas. The buoyant livestock export trade was considered to be an important driver of commercial destocking, demonstrating a positive link between livestock and meat exports, and pastoral vulnerability during drought.     

Hope Suspended: Morality, Politics and War in Central Africa

The Great Lakes tragedy from 1994—8 has demonstrated the impact of a new consensus in favour of conditional relief for the protection and assistance of disaster victims. This paper attempts to catalogue the failures of the international humanitarian community, African leaders and donor governments to act effectively in defence of humanitarian principles throughout the crisis. The paper places special emphasis on the events in eastern Zaire during 1996—7 that have, so far, received limited treatment, and, it contends, led to the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives.
The paper argues that the new orthodoxy of developmental relief, as adopted by UN and NGO humanitarian agencies in the Great Lakes, has acted more in support of the geopolitical and economic agendas of Northern governments and African leaders than in defence of disaster victims. The paper points out that the evidence of the Great Lakes tragedy suggests that the adoption of these approaches has sanctioned the abandonment of ideas about universal rights of protection for non-combatants at the moment when they are most at risk, with catastrophic results for those most vulnerable to abuse.     

昆明市东川区农业旱灾风险区识别研究

昆明市东川区是云南省农业旱灾危害较为严重的区域之一。利用2000-2007年东川区各乡镇历史灾情等数据资料,应用风险分析理论、效用理论、因子-成份分析方法等理论方法,在分别研究致灾风险度、承灾体易损性及地域人群对农业旱灾心理反响等基础上,构建了东川区农业旱灾风险评价模型。初步揭示出东川区农业旱灾风险度呈现出自南向北、自西向东逐渐增强的空间态势;识别出极高风险区、高风险区、中风险区和低风险区等4个农业旱灾风险区;发现东川区各地农业旱灾综合风险度、致灾风险度、承灾体易损度以及地域人群对旱灾的心理响应值等指数之间普遍存在着明显的正相关。