DETECTING CILANGES IN THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF NITRATE CONTAMINATION IN GROUND WATER1

ABSTRACT: Many studies of ground water pollution in general and nitrate contamination in particular have often relied on a one-time investigation, tracking of individual wells, or aggregate summaries. Studies of changes in spatial distribution of contaminants over time are lacking. This paper presents a method to compare spatial distributions for possible changes over time. The large-scale spatial distribution at a given time can be considered as a surface over the area (a trend surface). The changes in spatial distribution from period to period can be revealed by the differences in the shape and/or height of surfaces. If such a surface is described by a polynomial function, changes in surfaces can be detected by testing statistically for differences in their corresponding polynomial functions. This method was applied to nitrate concentration in a population of wells in an agricultural drainage basin in Iowa, sampled in three different years. For the period of 1981–1992, the large-scale spatial distribution of nitrate concentration did not show significant change in the shape of spatial surfaces; while the magnitude of nitrate concentration in the basin, or height of the computed surfaces showed significant fluctuations. The change in magnitude of nitrate concentration is closely related to climatic variations, especially in precipitation. The lack of change in the shape of spatial surfaces means that either the influence of land use/nitrogen management was overshadowed by climatic influence, or the changes in land use/management occurred in a random fashion.     

TEMPORAL VARIABILITY OF WATER QUALITY IN THE ST. LUCIE ESTUARY,SOUTH FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: Four years of monthly freshwater discharge and constituent concentration data from three tributaries were related to a concurrent series of data for three segments of the St. Lucie Estuary in South Florida using multiple regression and time-series analysis techniques. Water quality parameters examined were dissolved inorganic and total nitrogen and phosphorus, chlorophyll a, total suspended solids, turbidity, and color. On monthly time scales, a multiple regression, which included freshwater discharge, freshwater constituent concentration, and dilution with ocean water (salinity) as independent variables, explained 50 percent or less of the variability in estuarine constituents. No single independent variable explained more variation than another. By contrast, on seasonal (wet, dry) time scales, freshwater discharge explained the bulk of variation in estuarine water quality (up to 93 percent). On monthly time scales, variability in concentrations of nutrients and other constituents may be largely controlled by processes internal to the system. At seasonal time scales, freshwater discharge appears to drive variability in most estuarine water quality parameters examined. Results indicate that management of tributary input on a seasonal basis, with the expectation of achieving seasonal concentration goals in the estuary, would have a higher probability of success than managing on a monthly basis.     

DRAINMOD-FOREST: Integrated Modeling of Hydrology, Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics, and Plant Growth for Drained Forests

We present a hybrid and stand-level forest ecosystem model, DRAINMOD-FOREST, for simulating the hydrology, carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics, and tree growth for drained forest lands under common silvicultural practices. The model was developed by linking DRAINMOD, the hydrological model, and DRAINMOD-N II, the soil C and N dynamics model, to a forest growth model, which was adapted mainly from the 3-PG model. The forest growth model estimates net primary production, C allocation, and litterfall using physiology-based methods regulated by air temperature, water deficit, stand age, and soil N conditions. The performance of the newly developed DRAINMOD-FOREST model was evaluated using a long-term (21-yr) data set collected from an artificially drained loblolly pine ( L.) plantation in eastern North Carolina, USA. Results indicated that the DRAINMOD-FOREST accurately predicted annual, monthly, and daily drainage, as indicated by Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients of 0.93, 0.87, and 0.75, respectively. The model also predicted annual net primary productivity and dynamics of leaf area index reasonably well. Predicted temporal changes in the organic matter pool on the forest floor and in forest soil were reasonable compared to published literature. Both predicted annual and monthly nitrate export were in good agreement with field measurements, as indicated by Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients above 0.89 and 0.79 for annual and monthly predictions, respectively. This application of DRAINMOD-FOREST demonstrated its capability for predicting hydrology and C and N dynamics in drained forests under limited silvicultural practices.     

PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGIONAL ASSESSMENT: THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE WATER RESOURCES OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Pacific Northwest (PNW) regional assessment is an integrated examination of the consequences of natural climate variability and projected future climate change for the natural and human systems of the region. The assessment currently focuses on four sectors: hydrology/water resources, forests and forestry, aquatic ecosystems, and coastal activities. The assessment begins by identifying and elucidating the natural patterns of climate vanability in the PNW on interannual to decadal timescales. The pathways through which these climate variations are manifested and the resultant impacts on the natural and human systems of the region are investigated. Knowledge of these pathways allows an analysis of the potential impacts of future climate change, as defined by IPCC climate change scenarios. In this paper, we examine the sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability of hydrology and water resources to climate variability and change. We focus on the Columbia River Basin, which covers approximately 75 percent of the PNW and is the basis for the dominant water resources system of the PNW. The water resources system of the Columbia River is sensitive to climate variability, especially with respect to drought. Management inertia and the lack of a centralized authority coordinating all uses of the resource impede adaptability to drought and optimization of water distribution. Climate change projections suggest exacerbated conditions of conflict between users as a result of low summertime streamfiow conditions. An understanding of the patterns and consequences of regional climate variability is crucial to developing an adequate response to future changes in climate.     

IMPLICATIONS OF ON‐GROUND NITROGEN LOADING AND SOIL TRANSFORMATIONS ON GROUND WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents a modeling approach based on a geographic information system (GIS) to estimate the variability of on‐ground nitrogen loading and the corresponding nitrate leaching to ground water. The methodology integrates all point and nonpoint sources of nitrogen, the national land cover database, soil nitrogen transformations, and the uncertainty of key soil and land use‐related parameters to predict the nitrate mass leaching to ground water. The analysis considered 21 different land use classes with information derived from nitrogen sources such as fertilizer and dairy manure applications, dairy lagoons, septic systems, and dry and wet depositions. Simulations were performed at a temporal resolution of one month to capture seasonal trends. The model was applied to a large aquifer of 376 square miles in Washington State that serves more than 100,000 residents with drinking water. The results showed that dairy manure is the main source of nitrogen in the area followed by fertilizers. It was also seen that nitrate leaching is controlled by the recharge rate, and there can be a substantial buildup of soil nitrogen over long periods of time. Uncertainty analysis showed that denitrification rate is the most influential parameter on nitrate leaching. The results showed that combining management alternatives is a successful strategy, especially with the use of nitrification inhibitors. Also, change in the land use pattern has a noticeable impact on nitrate leaching.     

Multiscale effects of management, environmental conditions, and land use on nitrate leaching in dairy farms

Nitrate leaching in intensive grassland- and silage maize-based dairy farming systems on sandy soil is a main environmental concern. Here, statistical relationships are presented between management practices and environmental conditions and nitrate concentration in shallow groundwater (0.8 m depth) at farm, field, and point scales in The Netherlands, based on data collected in a participatory approach over a 7-yr period at one experimental and eight pilot commercial dairy farms on sandy soil. Farm milk production ranged from 10 to 24 Mg ha(-1). Soil and hydrological characteristics were derived from surveys and weather conditions from meteorological stations. Statistical analyses were performed with multiple regression models. Mean nitrate concentration at farm scale decreased from 79 mg L(-1) in 1999 to 63 in 2006, with average nitrate concentration in groundwater decreasing under grassland but increasing under maize land over the monitoring period. The effects of management practices on nitrate concentration varied with spatial scale. At farm scale, nitrogen surplus, grazing intensity, and the relative areas of grassland and maize land significantly contributed to explaining the variance in nitrate concentration in groundwater. Mean nitrate concentration was negatively correlated to the concentration of dissolved organic carbon in the shallow groundwater. At field scale, management practices and soil, hydrological, and climatic conditions significantly contributed to explaining the variance in nitrate concentration in groundwater under grassland and maize land. We conclude that, on these intensive dairy farms, additional measures are needed to comply with the European Union water quality standard in groundwater of 50 mg nitrate L(-1). The most promising measures are omitting fertilization of catch crops and reducing fertilization levels of first-year maize in the rotation.     

SENSITIVITY OF A PRAIRIE WETLAND TO INCREASED TEMPERATURE AND SEASONAL PRECIPITATION CHANGES1

ABSTRACT: We assessed the potential effects of increased temperature and changes in amount and seasonal timing of precipitation on the hydrology and vegetation of a semi-permanent prairie wetland in North Dakota using a spatially-defined, rule-based simulation model. Simulations were run with increased temperatures of 2°C combined with a 10 percent increase or decrease in total growing season precipitation. Changes in precipitation were applied either evenly across all months or to individual seasons (spring, summer, or fall). The response of semi-permanent wetland P1 was relatively similar under most of the seasonal scenarios. A 10 percent increase in total growing season precipitation applied to summer months only, to fall months only, and over all months produced lower water levels compared to those resulting from the current climate due to increased evapotranspiration. Wetland hydrology was most affected by changes in spring precipitation and runoff. Vegetation response was relatively consistent across scenarios. Seven of the eight seasonal scenarios produced drier conditions with no open water and greater vegetation cover compared to those resulting from the current climate. Only when spring precipitation increased did the wetland maintain an extensive open water area (49 percent). Potential changes in climate that affect spring runoff, such as changes to spring precipitation and snow melt, may have the greatest impact on prairie wetland hydrology and vegetation. In addition, relatively small changes in water level during dry years may affect the period of time the wetland contains open water. Emergent vegetation, once it is established, can survive under drier conditions due to its ability to persist in shallow water with fluctuating levels. The model's sensitivity to changes in temperature and seasonal precipitation patterns accentuates the need for accurate regional climate change projections from general circulation models.     

Modeling the stream water nitrate dynamics in a 60,000-km2 European catchment, the Garonne, southwest France

The spatial and temporal dynamics in the stream water NO(3)-N concentrations in a major European river-system, the Garonne (62,700 km(2)), are described and related to variations in climate, land management, and effluent point-sources using multivariate statistics. Building on this, the Hydrologiska Byr?ns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) rainfall-runoff model and the Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) are applied to simulate the observed flow and N dynamics. This is done to help us to understand which factors and processes control the flow and N dynamics in different climate zones and to assess the relative inputs from diffuse and point sources across the catchment. This is the first application of the linked HBV and INCA-N models to a major European river system commensurate with the largest basins to be managed under the Water Framework Directive. The simulations suggest that in the lowlands, seasonal patterns in the stream water NO(3)-N concentrations emerge and are dominated by diffuse agricultural inputs, with an estimated 75% of the river load in the lowlands derived from arable farming. The results confirm earlier European catchment studies. Namely, current semi-distributed catchment-scale dynamic models, which integrate variations in land cover, climate, and a simple representation of the terrestrial and in-stream N cycle, are able to simulate seasonal NO(3)-N patterns at large spatial (>300 km(2)) and temporal (> or = monthly) scales using available national datasets.     

FOREST HYDROLOGY ISSUES FOR THE 21ST CENTURY: A CONSULTANT'S VIEWPOINT1

ABSTRACT: Forest hydrology should be a mature science with routine use of hydrological procedures to evaluate the effect of past, current and proposed harvesting practices on water resources. It is not. However, water users are pressuring forest managers to exercise their role in managing forested watersheds for water supply. Most forest managers are poorly equipped to carry out this role. Forestry schools need to ensure that their graduates, whether employed in forest management positions or as specialists in watershed management, understand that all forestry operations may affect instream or downstream water users. Specialists in forest hydrology should be fully aware of the following: (1) climate and watershed characteristics influence streamflow in separate ways; (2) forestry practices produce changes in water yield and quality, and that only these changes need to be evaluated to estimate their effects; (3) watershed storage is a critical factor in evaluating the effects of harvesting on streamflow; and (4) the effect of harvest on one watershed cannot be extrapolated to another without consideration of the processes affected. Research is needed to assist watershed managers in applying models to watersheds for which climate and streamflow data are insufficient. Research is also needed to incorporate climate, streamflow and other data for hydrological models into geographic information systems. Joint research projects are needed to develop physical relationships between stream channel characteristics of importance to fisheries biologists and streamflow characteristics affected by forest harvest.     

SURFACE WATER QUALITY IMPACTS OF TILLAGE PRACTICES UNDER LIQUID SWINE MANIJRE APPLICATION1

ABSTRACT: Field studies were conducted to investigate the effects of tillage practices on the saturated hydraulic conductivity, and quantity and quality of surface runoff water resulting from the application of the liquid swine manure as a fertilizer. As part of the study, infiltration experiments were conducted on silt-loam soil with no-tillage (NT) and disk tillage (DT) practices. Liquid swine manure was applied on test plots, and the rainfall was applied by the portable rainfall simulator. The infiltration data was analyzed for the saturated hydraulic conductivity (K8) and runoff volume determinations. The surface runoff water was analyzed for total N, total P, ammonia, and nitrate concentration determinations. The study indicated that the tillage had significant effects on K_s, and quantity and quality of runoff water. The K_s values of the NT plots were found to vary from 0.693 to 1.734 mm/min, with a mean of 1.494 mm/min, while they varied from 1.056 to 2.543 mm/min, with a mean of 2231 mm/mm in the DT plots. The total N, total P, ammonium nitrogen and nitrate nitrogen concentrations were lower in runoff generated from DT plots, compared to that from the NT plots. The chemical concentration levels were significantly different in runoff waters collected one-day after manure application than in those collected 40-days after the manure application. Study suggested that the DT practice must be preferred over the NT practice if liquid swine manure is used as the fertilizer. The study is further continued to assess the long-term impacts of swine manure application and tillage on the quantity and quality of surface runoff water.     

WATER QUALITY OF AN INTENSWE AGRICULTURAL WATERSHED IN QUEBEC1

ABSTRACT: . Under a watershed based approach being examined by the Quebec Ministry of Agriculture to accelerate the adoption of conservation practices, a study on the impacts of agricultural practices on the St. Esprit watershed was initiated in the fall of 1993. The water quality of this 26 km² intensive agricultural watershed was studied over an 18 month period. Water samples taken at the outlet of the watershed were analyzed for nitrate, phosphate, suspended sediment, and atrazine. Water quality data were analyzed to establish seasonal trends in pollutant concentration and load in the watercourse. Spring snowmelt was identified as a significant period of pollutant material export. All pollutant materials displayed seasonal variability in the export process. Peak pollutant concentrations were associated with high flow events. Mean observed pollutant concentrations did not exceed drinking water quality standards.     

Nitrate distributions and source identification in the Abbotsford-Sumas Aquifer,northwestern Washington State

The Abbotsford-Sumas Aquifer is a shallow, predominantly unconfined aquifer that spans regions in southwestern British Columbia, Canada and northwestern Washington, USA. The aquifer is prone to nitrate contamination because of extensive regional agricultural practices. A 22-month ground water nitrate assessment was performed in a 10-km2 study area adjacent to the international boundary in northwestern Washington to examine nitrate concentrations and nitrogen isotope ratios to characterize local source contributions from up-gradient sources in Canada. Nitrate concentrations in excess of 10 mg nitrate as nitrogen per liter (mg N L(-1)) were observed in ground water from most of the 26 domestic wells sampled in the study area, and in a creek that dissects the study area. The nitrate distribution was characteristic of nonpoint agricultural sources and consistent with the historical documentation of agriculturally related nitrate contamination in many parts of the aquifer. Hydrogeologic information, nitrogen isotope values, and statistical analyses indicated a nitrate concentration stratification in the study area. The highest concentrations (> 20 mg N L(-1)) occurred in shallow regions of the aquifer and were linked to local agricultural practices in northwestern Washington. Nitrate concentrations in excess of 10 mg N L(-1) deeper in the aquifer (> 10 m) were related to agricultural sources in Canada. The identification of two possible sources of ground water nitrate in northwestern Washington adds to the difficulty in assessing and implementing local nutrient management plans for protecting drinking water in the region.     

Linking Biological Integrity and Watershed Models to Assess the Impacts of Historical Land Use and Climate Changes on Stream Health

Land use change and other human disturbances have significant impacts on physicochemical and biological conditions of stream systems. Meanwhile, linking these disturbances with hydrology and water quality conditions is challenged due to the lack of high-resolution datasets and the selection of modeling techniques that can adequately deal with the complex and nonlinear relationships of natural systems. This study addresses the above concerns by employing a watershed model to obtain stream flow and water quality data and fill a critical gap in data collection. The data were then used to estimate fish index of biological integrity (IBI) within the Saginaw Bay basin in Michigan. Three methods were used in connecting hydrology and water quality variables to fish measures including stepwise linear regression, partial least squares regression, and fuzzy logic. The IBI predictive model developed using fuzzy logic showed the best performance with the R ² = 0.48. The variables that identified as most correlated to IBI were average annual flow, average annual organic phosphorus, average seasonal nitrite, average seasonal nitrate, and stream gradient. Next, the predictions were extended to pre-settlement (mid-1800s) land use and climate conditions. Results showed overall significantly higher IBI scores under the pre-settlement land use scenario for the entire watershed. However, at the fish sampling locations, there was no significant difference in IBI. Results also showed that including historical climate data have strong influences on stream flow and water quality measures that interactively affect stream health; therefore, should be considered in developing baseline ecological conditions.     

MANAGEMENT AND POLICY EFFECTS ON POTENTIAL GROUNDWATER CONTAMINATION FROM DAIRY WASTE1

ABSTRACT: A combined economic and water quality modeling framework was used to evaluate impacts of alternative policies and management practices on reducing nitrate movement to groundwater for dairy farms in Rockingham County, Virginia. The analysis considers three on-farm manure storage options, cost-sharing programs for purchasing manure storage facilities, restrictions on nitrogen application rates, and a tax on commercial fertilizer. The CREAMS model was used to estimate nitrate leaching from the crop root zone for various nutrient (and manure) management practices, based on timing and rate of manure and fertilizer applications. The mixed-integer programming economic model considers water quality, policy, and economic constraints in comparing the profitability of alternative cropping and nutrient management systems that reduce groundwater contamination potential. The study provides both the environmental and economic effects of better management of dairy waste.     

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF A DRAINAGE SIMULATION MODEL1

A sensitivity analysis of a computer model, simulating major water and nitrogen processes of a soil-water-plant-climatic system on an annual basis, was conducted to determine how the model reacts to the variations in selected hydrologic and nitrogen parameters. Two major output variables (namely, total subsurface drain volume and cumulative nitrate loss with subsurface drain water) were selected for the sensitivity analysis. Model sensitivity analysis shows that the model is most sensitive to hydrologic parameters. The model is very sensitive to variations in the initial water content in the soil profile.     

MODELING OF NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION OF NITROGEN AT THE WATERSHED SCALE1

ABSTRACT: The Watershed Nutrient Transport and Transformation (NTT-Watershed) model is a physically based, energy-driven, multiple land use, distributed model that is capable of simulating water and nutrient transport in a watershed. The topographic features and subsurface properties of the watershed are refined into uniform, homogeneous square grids. The vertical discretization includes vegetation, overland flow, soil water redistribution and groundwater zones. The chemical submodel simulates the nitrogen dynamics in terrestrial and aquatic systems. Three chemical state variables are considered (NO₃^-_-, NH₄⁺, and Org-N). The NTT-Watershed model was used to simulate the fate and transport of nitrogen in the Muddy Brook watershed in Connecticut. The model was shown to be capable of capturing the hydrologic and portions of the nitrogen dynamics in the watershed. Watershed planners could use this model in developing strategies of best management practices that could result in maximizing the reductions of nitrogen export from a watershed.     

INTEGRATION OF GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS AND A COMPUTER MODEL TO EVALUATE IMPACTS OF AGRICULTURAL RUNOFF ON WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: This study integrates an Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution Model (AGNPS), the Geographic Resource Analysis Support System (GRASS) (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 1987), and GRASS WATERWORKS (a hydrologic modeling tool box being developed at the Michigan State University Center for Remote Sensing) to evaluate the impact of agricultural runoff on water quality in the Cass River, a subwatershed of Saginaw Bay. AGNPS is used to estimate the amounts, origin, and distribution of sediment, nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) in the watershed. GRASS and GRASS WATERWORKS are used to generate parameters needed for AGNPS from digital maps, which include soil association, land use, watershed boundaries, water features, and digital elevation. Outputs of the model include spatially distributed estimates of volume and peak runoff, overland and channel erosion, sediment yields, and concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus. Management scenarios are explored in the AGNPS model to minimize sedimentation and nutrient loading. Scenarios evaluated include variations in crop cover, tillage methods, and other agricultural management practices. In addition, areas vulnerable to erosion are identified for best management practices.     

Sustainability of farmers' soil fertility management practices: a case study in the North China Plain

To ensure regional self-sufficiency and adequate rural livelihoods in the North China Plain (NCP), tremendous efforts were made over the last two decades by the Chinese government to raise the productivity of crops, despite increasing pressure on the land caused by a growing population. Emphasis was placed on high external input use, especially for wheat, maize and cotton, ignoring the particularities and limitations of the natural resource base. This study assesses the sustainability of current soil fertility management practices on the basis of selected location-specific indicators, such as fertilizer use, soil pH, soil organic matter content, levels of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) in the soil, and identifies determining factors of the yield and environmental impacts of inputs use. Data used for the analysis were gathered from soil tests, groundwater and chive plant tests, household surveys, and statistical yearbooks. Stepwise multiple regression analysis is applied to determine factors affecting the yields. The study revealed unbalanced use of nutrients. Organic fertilizers (manure, crop residues) and K are insufficiently applied, whereas N and P are considerably overused in comparison with recommended doses. The intensive cropping in the area using high-input technologies -particularly fertilizer- has resulted in a remarkable general enhancement of crop productivity and improvement of soil fertility over the years. The yield of wheat and maize has increased 173 and 180 kg ha(-1) annually from 1982 to 2000, respectively and soil fertility status also improved over the years and the values of the selected indicators are within the borderline for sustainability. Irrigation water, FYM application, and total labor used during the cultivation season (with the exception of cotton and chive) for production are the main factors determining the yields of four major crops under study, while popularly and overly used N did not appear to be a significant factor affecting the yield. Its overuse, however, leads to leaching of nitrate into groundwater and nitrate enrichment of vegetables. Of 20 groundwater samples, 16 showed nitrate levels between 55 and 180 mg l(-1), which exceeds recommendations for drinking water (相似文献   

POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON MOUNTAIN WATERSHEDS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST1

ABSTRACT: Global climate change due to the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has serious potential impacts on water resources in the Pacific Northwest. Climate scenarios produced by general circulation models (GCMs) do not provide enough spatial specificity for studying water resources in mountain watersheds. This study uses dynamical downscaling with a regional climate model (RCM) driven by a GCM to simulate climate change scenarios. The RCM uses a subgrid parameterization of orographic precipitation and land surface cover to simulate surface climate at the spatial scale suitable for the representation of topographic effects over mountainous regions. Numerical experiments have been performed to simulate the present-day climatology and the climate conditions corresponding to a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The RCM results indicate an average warming of about 2.5°C, and precipitation generally increases over the Pacific Northwest and decreases over California. These simulations were used to drive a distributed hydrology model of two snow dominated watersheds, the American River and Middle Fork Flathead, in the Pacific Northwest to obtain more detailed estimates of the sensitivity of water resources to climate change. Results show that as more precipitation falls as rain rather than snow in the warmer climate, there is a 60 percent reduction in snowpack and a significant shift in the seasonal pattern of streamflow in the American River. Much less drastic changes are found in the Middle Fork Flathead where snowpack is only reduced by 18 percent and the seasonal pattern of streamflow remains intact. This study shows that the impacts of climate change on water resources are highly region specific. Furthermore, under the specific climate change scenario, the impacts are largely driven by the warming trend rather than the precipitation trend, which is small.     

Modeling Hydrological and Environmental Consequences of Climate Change and Urbanization in the Boise River Watershed,Idaho

The potential impacts driven by climate variability and urbanization in the Boise River Watershed (BRW), located in southwestern Idaho, are evaluated. The outcomes from Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and land use and land cover (LULC) analysis have been incorporated into a hydrological and environmental modeling framework to characterize how climate variability and urbanization can affect the local hydrology and environment at the BRW. The combined impacts of future climate and LULC change are also evaluated relative to the historical baseline conditions. For modeling exercises, Hydrological Simulation Program‐Fortran (HSPF) is used in parallel computing and statistical techniques, including spatial downscaling and bias correlation, are employed to evaluate climate consequences derived from GCMs as well. The implications of climate variability and land use change driven by urbanization are then observed to evaluate how these overall global challenges can affect water quantity and quality conditions at the BRW. The results show the combined impacts of both climate change and urbanization can lead to more seasonal variability of streamflow (from ?27.5% to 12.5%) and water quality, including sediment (from ?36.5% to 49.3%), nitrogen (from ?24% to 124.2%), and phosphorus (from ?13.3% to 21.2%) during summer and early fall over the next several decades.