BP神经网络组合预测在城市生活垃圾产量预测中应用

文章分析了组合预测理论,在建立由二次指数平滑预测模型、灰色预测模型、BP神经网络预测模型组成的组合预测模型库的基础上,利用以上三种单一预测模型的组合构成BP神经网络组合预测模型。分别应用单一预测模型和组合预测模型对湖南省城市生活垃圾产生量进行预测,通过分析和比较预测结果,验证了该组合预测方法的有效性。     

中国废水排放量预测研究

文章在综合分析中国废水排放量影响因素的基础上,结合ARMA、多元线性回归方法构建了中国废水排放量预测模型,并对2013年-2015年中国废水排放量进行了预测,结果表明:2013年-2015年中国废水排放量将分别达到729.98亿吨、768.97亿吨、810.71亿吨;造纸印刷及文教用品制造业、化学工业等行业废水排放量及单位增加值废水排放量均较大,相关部门需对减排的各个过程进行规范和严格的监督。     

Species-specific proteins in fossils

With a solid-phase radioimmunoassay it has been possible to detect species-specific collagen and albumin in fossils as old as 1.9 million years. This technique may provide new data on the genetic relations of fossil species to each other and to living forms.     

ISO 14001 in environmental supply chain practices

This paper focuses on the role of ISO 14001 in environmental supply management practices in Swedish companies. It discusses the existing and potential role of ISO 14001 for three key operational tasks of environmental supply chain management: to communicate the requirements to the supplier, to motivate and enable the supplier, and to verify that the supplier follows the requirements. The study used three different research methods: interviews with environmental managers, focus group discussions and a survey of two multinational companies and their operating units in several countries.It concludes that cooperation between the purchasing and environmental functions within a company is frequently not sufficiently achieved in implementation of ISO 14001; this makes the communication of customer requirements to suppliers less efficient. Building close relationships with suppliers is important to overcome initial difficulties, but this often conflicts with having a large supplier base. For the supplier to have an ISO 14001 certificate is seldom an absolute requirement, however, preference is often given to such suppliers. The value of the ISO 14001 certificate, as a proof of environmental performance, is a combination of the supplier's environmental ambitions, the advancement of supply chain practices of the customer and the ambitions of the certification bodies. Supplier audits are not commonly used as they are resource-consuming. Monitoring and verification approaches need further development.     

Corporate environmental responsibility in the supply chain

A continuing trend in outsourcing increases the complexity of supply chains. Global supply chains extend over numerous echelons of countless companies. In parallel, the company-internal view on corporate environmental responsibility is being challenged as customers and legislation alike broaden a company's environmental responsibility to include organisations' upstream as well as downstream in the supply chain. Therefore, the aim of this study was to examine corporate environmental responsibility beyond corporate boundaries, i.e. in the supply chain. A cross-industrial study based on 16 case studies in Finnish trans-national corporations sheds light on various dimensions of corporate environmental responsibility upstream and downstream of product and process supply chains. Conclusions were drawn for corporate environmental responsibility as well as for the role of supply chain management in extending environmental demand over several echelons and diverse industries.     

The influence of operational flexibility on the exploitation of CO2 reduction potential in industrial energy production

Energy conservation is a key measure for reducing CO₂ emissions. However, realising the emission reduction potential of an energy conservation investment depends on many factors, such as energy prices. The EU emissions trading scheme has made the investment analysis more complicated and increased the economic value of operational flexibility under fluctuating carbon prices. The different operational options in industrial energy production complicate the estimation of CO₂ reduction potential in the investment phase. Increasing operational flexibility enables optimisation in the economic dimension, which may lead to less than optimum CO₂ reduction. In our case study, which analysed the effects of an energy conservation investment made in the pulp and paper industry, the deviation from the expected emission reduction was around 30% over the period from 2000 to 2007. However, it seems that with high carbon prices, increasing operational flexibility has no significant effect on the carbon emissions. In policy-making, the freedom of action that is made possible by increasing operational flexibility should be taken into account when evaluating the contribution of an individual energy efficiency investment towards meeting the national targets for energy efficiency improvement and CO₂ emission reduction.     

Basic proteins in serratia marcescens

The Science of Nature -     

Valuing power plant flexibility with CCS: the case of post-combustion capture retrofits

An important development in recent years has been increased interest in retrofitting CO₂ capture at existing power plants. In parallel, it has also been suggested that flexible operation of power plants with CO₂ capture could be important in at least some jurisdictions. It is likely that retrofitted power plants could have significant ??built-in?? flexibility, but this potential is often not considered in studies of the economic performance of power plants with CO₂ capture. This paper makes a contribution to filling this gap by developing methods for first order screening analysis of flexible operation of power plants with CO₂ capture and applying them to the case study example of an appropriately integrated retrofit of post-combustion capture at a coal-fired power plant. The quantitative analysis suggests that rich solvent storage could be an attractive option on a short-run basis for some fuel, CO₂ and electricity price combinations. Results from first order analysis can then be used to determine which operating modes should (and shouldn??t) be included in further, more detailed design studies.     

Environmental supply chain dynamics

This paper investigates the circumstances under which “environmental supply chain dynamics” (ESCD) emerge. ESCD are a phenomenon where environmental innovations diffuse from a customer firm to a supplier firm. Its relevance is based on the argument that systemic approaches are needed to understand the environmental implications of industrial systems, of which supply chains are a key component. Furthermore, buyer–supplier relationships play a critical role in the decision-making processes of most suppliers, which in turn has the potential to stimulate environmental change within the supply chain. Based on case studies in the British and Japanese food retail sector and the British aerospace industry, it will be shown that ESCD emerge if there is a channel leader with sufficient channel power over their suppliers, technical competencies, and are themselves under specific environmental pressure.     

装修住宅室内总挥发性有机物（TVOC）浓度预测模型研究

在对装修住宅室内总挥发性有机物（TVOC）浓度的影响因素进行综合分析的基础上,结合实验数据建立TVOC浓度预测模型。基于该数学模型,以装修住宅室内TVOC浓度数据为实例进行了模型验证,该模型的计算结果与实验结果基本一致,最后对模型的应用进行了探讨。     

松嫩平原西部土地盐碱化预测研究

土地盐碱化作为一种地质环境灾害,严重威胁生态、经济和社会的可持续发展。有关盐碱地形成机理、动态变化监测的研究已经较多,但盐碱地演化预测方面的研究却鲜见报道。本文以松嫩平原西部盐碱化典型地区通榆县为例,利用RS和GIS技术分析了区域内1992~2001年土地盐碱化演化特征,并在此基础上利用条件约束空间分析测算模型对全县未来49年内的土地盐碱化演化趋势进行了预测。结果表明：到2050年,通榆县盐碱地总量将达到380 581.4 hm²,占全县土地总面积的44.80%。其中,轻、中、重度盐碱地在盐碱地总量中所占比例将调整为24.54%、29.04%和44.39%。高、中覆盖草地、耕地和水库将将是未来新增盐碱地的主要来源。条件约束空间分析测算模型为区域土地盐碱化预测提供了一种新思路。     

马尔科夫链在环境质量预测中的应用

鉴于目前环境质量预测在理论方法和实践上的缺乏,把马尔科夫链引入环境质量的预测中,将各种污染物的浓度变化过程视作马尔科夫过程,通过预测各种污染物的污染负荷系数来推知其浓度值.实例中通过多元回归分析计算出马尔科夫转移矩阵,以2005年辽宁省5种大气污染物的污染负荷系数作为初始向量,预测了今后5年的变化.然后利用GM(1,1)模型预测出降尘的具体浓度值,由此计算出了2006～2010年辽宁省5种污染物的浓度值.     

寒冷地区垃圾渗滤液产生量预测研究

东北地区4季变化明显,冬季寒冷,冰冻期较长,渗滤液的产生具有明显的不连续性.为了考查该气候条件下渗滤液产生量的变化情况以及回灌对渗滤液产生量的影响,在室外建立2个处理同类生活垃圾的模拟垃圾填埋场,其中1个渗滤液不回灌做为对照,另1个带有渗滤液回流装置,进行全年渗滤液产生量的跟踪监测.在对垃圾渗滤液产生量预测模型进行综合比较的基础上,基于全年降雨量和渗滤液产生量的实测数据,采用线性回归确定了经验公式法的模型参数,通过模型预测值与现场实测值的对比,分析了预测模型的可靠性与准确性,从而为寒冷地区垃圾填埋场渗滤液产生量的预测、收集和处理系统的设计以及渗滤液回灌技术的推广应用提供科学依据.     

常用缓冲溶液对解草唑水解的催化效应研究

研究了温度、pH值以及常用缓冲溶液对解草唑水解的影响.结果表明.解草唑在不同pH值和温度下的水解遵循一级动力学反应,其水解速率随着pH和温度的升高而增大.利用Bronsted酸碱催化理论推导了所用缓冲溶液对解草唑水解的影响,结果表明缓冲溶液对解草唑水解存在明显的催化作用,加快了解草唑的水解速率.而且不同缓冲盐体系的缓冲催化能力也不同,同一缓冲盐体系在不同pH值条件下的缓冲催化能力也不同.其中pH=7的磷酸盐缓冲溶液表现出最大的催化作用.通过建立基于缓冲因子校正的以温度和pH值为变量的方程,预测了模拟天然水体中解草唑的水解半减期,结果表明其水解半减期为7～790 d.液相色谱.质谱分析表明,在碱性条件下(pH 8-10),解草唑通过乙酸乙酯基团水解生成解草唑酸.     

Prediction model of mercury accumulation in fish of reservoirs

ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＨｅａｌｔｈｈａｚａｒｄｓｆｒｏｍｍｅｒｃｕｒｙｉｎｔｈｅｅｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔｈａｖｅｃａｕｓｅｄｒｅｓｔｒｉｃｔｉｏｎｓｉｎｔｈｅｕｓｅｏｆｍｅｒｃｕｒｙａｎｄａｓｔｒｉｃｔｅｒｃｏｎｔｒｏｌｏｆｔｈｅｒｅｌｅａｓｅｏｆｍｅｒｃｕｒｙｆｒｏｍｉｎｄｕｓｔｒｉａｌａｎｄｏｔｈｅｒｕｓｅｓ.Ｂｕｔａｔｔｈｅｓａｍｅｔｉｍｅｔｈｅｓｅｓｏｕｒｃｅｓｏｆｍｅｒｃｕｒｙｈａｖｅｂｅｅｎｓｕｂｊｅｃｔｅｄｔｏｒｅｇｕｌａｔｉｏｎ ,ｔｗｏｎｅｗｓｏｕｒｃｅｓｈａｖｅａｐｐｅａｒｅｄ …