Urban street structure and traffic safety

IntroductionThis paper reports the influence of road type and junction density on road traffic fatality rates in U.S. cities.MethodThe Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) files were used to obtain fatality rates for all cities for the years 2005–2010. A stratified random sample of 16 U.S. cities was taken, and cities with high and low road traffic fatality rates were compared on their road layout details (TIGER maps were used). Statistical analysis was done to determine the effect of junction density and road type on road traffic fatality rates.ResultsThe analysis of road network and road traffic crash fatality rates in these randomly selected U.S. cities shows that, (a) higher number of junctions per road length was significantly associated with a lower motor- vehicle crash and pedestrian mortality rates, and, (b) increased number of kilometers of roads of any kind was associated with higher fatality rates, but an additional kilometer of main arterial road was associated with a significantly higher increase in total fatalities. When compared to non-arterial roads, the higher the ratio of highways and main arterial roads, there was an association with higher fatality rates.ConclusionsThese results have important implications for road safety professionals. They suggest that once the road and street structure is put in place, that will influence whether a city has low or high traffic fatality rates. A city with higher proportion of wider roads and large city blocks will tend to have higher traffic fatality rates, and therefore in turn require much more efforts in police enforcement and other road safety measures.Practical applicationsUrban planners need to know that smaller block size with relatively less wide roads will result in lower traffic fatality rates and this needs to be incorporated at the planning stage.     

Road traffic mortality in the Slovak Republic in 1996–2014

Objective: Road traffic mortality takes an enormous toll in every society. Transport safety interventions play a crucial role in improving the situation. In the period 1996–2014 several road safety measures, including a complex new road traffic law in 2009, were implemented in the Slovak Republic, introducing stricter conditions for road users.

The aim of this study is to describe and analyze the trends in road user mortality in the Slovak Republic in individual age groups by sex during the study period 1996–2014.

Methods: Data on overall mortality in the Slovak Republic for the period 1996–2014 were obtained from the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic. Mortality rates were age-adjusted to the European standard population. Joinpoint regression was used to assess the statistical significance of change in time trends of calculated standardized mortality rates.

Results: Mortality rates of all types of road users as well as all age groups and both sexes in the Slovak Republic in the period 1996–2014 are decreasing. The male : female ratio decreased from 4:1 in 1996 to 2:1 in 2014. Motor vehicle users (other than motorcyclists) and pedestrians have the highest mortality rates among road user groups. Both of these groups show a significant decline in mortality rates over the study period. Within the age groups, people age 65 years and over have the highest mortality rates, followed by the age groups 25–64 and 15–24 years old.

Joinpoint regression confirmed a steady, significant decline in all mortality rates over the study period. A statistically significant decrease in mortality rates in the last years of the study period was observed in the age group 25–64 and in male motorcycle users.

Assessing the impact of the 2009 road traffic law, a drop was observed in the average standardized mortality rate of all road traffic users from 14.56 per 100,000 person years in the period 1996–2008 to 7.69 per 100,000 person years in the period 2009–2014. A similar drop in the average standardized mortality rate was observed in all individual road user groups.

Conclusions: The implementation of the new traffic regulations may have contributed significantly to the observed decrease in mortality rates of road users in the Slovak Republic. A significant decrease in mortality was observed in all population groups and in all groups of road users. The introduction of a new comprehensive road traffic law may have expedited the decrease of road fatalities, especially in the age group 25–64 years old. This type of evidence-based epidemiology data can be used for improved targeting of future public health measures for road traffic injury prevention.     

Effect of the zero-tolerance drinking and driving law on mortality due to road traffic accidents according to the type of victim,sex, and age in Rio de Janeiro,Brazil: An interrupted time series study

Objective: The objective of this study was to estimate the effect of the Brazilian zero-tolerance drinking and driving law on mortality rates due to road traffic accidents according to the type of victim, sex, and age.

Methods: An interrupted time series design was used to compare yearly mortality rates due to road traffic accidents in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, before and after the zero-tolerance drinking and driving law came into effect on June 19, 2008. Yearly mortality rates were compared according to the type of victim: pedestrian, cyclist, motorcyclist, and vehicle occupant. We used the Prais-Winsten procedure of autoregression in the analysis of time series; the outcome of this analysis was the annual percentage change in the rates. Overall and stratified analyses were conducted to investigate whether the zero-tolerance drinking and driving law may have had a distributional effect on mortality rates due to road traffic accidents depending on sex and age group; a significance level of P < .01 was accepted.

Results: From 1999 to 2016, there were 15,629 deaths due to road traffic accidents in Rio de Janeiro. The effect of the zero-tolerance drinking and driving law on overall mortality rates due to road traffic accidents in Rio de Janeiro was not statistically significant. However, among cyclists and motorcyclists aged ≥60 years and among pedestrians of both sexes and aged ≥20 years, the effect of the zero-tolerance drinking and driving law was to decrease mortality due to road traffic accidents at a yearly rate.

Conclusion: There is evidence of reduced mortality rates due to road traffic accidents among cyclists and motorcyclists aged ≥60 years and among pedestrians of both sexes aged ≥20 years in the second major Brazilian capital 9 years after the zero-tolerance drinking and driving law was adopted.     

Analyzing the safety impact of longer and heavier vehicles circulating in the European market

Introduction: The European Union (EU) has developed different strategies to internalize the costs of excessive motor traffic in the road freight transport sector. One of these is a relaxation of restrictions on the size and load capacity of trucks that circulate between member States and a proposal has been made for Longer and Heavier Vehicles (LHVs) to be allowed to circulate across borders. LHVs are the so-called “megatrucks” (i.e., trucks with a length of 25 meters and a weight of 60 tonnes). Megatrucks have allowed to circulate for decades in some European countries such as Norway, Finland, and Sweden, world leaders in traffic accident prevention, although the impact that cross-border traffic would have on road safety is still unknown. Methods: This article provides an econometric analysis of the potential impact on road safety of allowing the circulation of “megatrucks” throughout the EU. Results: The findings show that countries that currently allow megatrucks to circulate present lower traffic accident and fatality levels, on average. Conclusions: The circulation of this type of vehicle is only advisable in countries where there is a certain degree of maturity and demonstrated achievements in the field of road safety. Practical applications: European countries that have allowed megatruck circulation obtaining better road safety outcomes in terms of accidents, although the accident lethality rate seems to be higher. Consequently, introducing megatruck circulation requires a prior proper preparation and examination.     

Road traffic deaths in Brazil: rising trends in pedestrian and motorcycle occupant deaths

Objective: According to the World Health Organization, the global burden of road traffic mortality exceeds 1.27 million people annually; over 90 percent occur in low- and middle-income countries. Brazil's road traffic mortality rate of ～20 per 100,000 is significantly higher than nearby Chile or Argentina. To date, there has been very little information published on road traffic fatalities among vulnerable road users (VRUs) in Brazil. Methods: Road traffic fatality data from 2000 to 2008 were extracted from Brazil's Mortality Information System (SIM). Road traffic deaths were extracted using the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) V-codes (V01-V89) and then subcategorized by VRU categories. Information was then disaggregated by gender, age, and region. Results: In 2008, 39,211 deaths due to road traffic injuries were recorded in Brazil, resulting in a crude mortality rate of 20.7 per 100,000 inhabitants. Pedestrian mortality averaged 5.46 deaths per 100,000 between 2000 and 2008. The mortality rate for elderly pedestrians (80+ years) is 20.1 per 100,000, over 10 times that of 0- to 9-year-olds. In the past decade, motorcycle occupant mortality has dramatically increased by over 300 percent from 1.5 per 100,000 in 2000 to 4.7 per 100,000 in 2008. The 20- to 29-year age group remains most affected by motorcycle deaths, with a peak fatality rate of 10.76 per 100,000 in 2008. The north and northeast regions, with the lower per capita gross domestic product (GDP), have higher proportions of VRU deaths compared with other regions. Conclusions: Vulnerable road users are contributing an increasing proportion of the road traffic fatalities in Brazil. Nationally, elderly pedestrians are at particularly high risk and motorcycle fatalities are increasing at a rapid rate. Less prosperous regions have higher proportions of VRU deaths. Understanding the epidemiology of road traffic mortality in vulnerable road user categories will better allow for targeted interventions to reduce these preventable deaths.     

Mortality from road traffic accidents in a rapidly urbanizing Chinese city: A 20-year analysis in Shenzhen, 1994–2013

Objective: This study aimed to describe the trends of motorization and mortality rates from road traffic accidents and examine their associations in a rapidly urbanizing city in China, Shenzhen.

Methods: Using data from the Shenzhen Deaths Registry between 1994 and 2013, we calculated the annual mortality rates of road traffic accidents, in addition to the age- and sex-specific mortality rates and their annual percentage changes (APCs) for the period of 2000–2013. We also examined the associations between mortality rate of road traffic accidents and traffic growth with Spearman's rank correlation analysis and a log-linear model derived from Smeed's law.

Results: A total of 20,196 deaths due to road traffic accidents, including 14,391 (71.3%) male deaths and 5,805 (28.7%) female deaths, were recorded in Shenzhen from 1994 to 2013. The annual mortality rates in terms of deaths per population and deaths per vehicle changed in similar patterns, demonstrating an increase since 1994 and peaking in 1997, followed by a steady decrease thereafter. The decrease in mortality was faster in individuals aged 20 year or older compared to those younger than 20 years. The mortality rates in term of deaths per population were positively correlated with the total number of vehicles per kilometer of road but negatively correlated with the motorization rate in term of vehicles per population. The estimated model for deaths due to road traffic accidents in relation to the total population and the number of registered vehicles was ln (deaths/10,000 vehicles) = ?1.902 × ln (vehicles/population) ? 1.961. The coefficient was statistically significant (P < .001) and the coefficient of determination was 0.966, indicating a good model fit.

Conclusions: We described a generally decreasing trend in the mortality rates of road traffic accidents in a rapidly urbanizing Chinese city based observations in the 20-year period from 1994 to 2013. The decreased mortality rate may be explained by the expansion of road network construction, improved road safety regulations and management, as well as more accessible ambulance services in recent years. Nevertheless, road traffic accidents remain a universal problem of great public health concern in the whole population.     

Relationship of traffic fatality rates to maximum state speed limits

Objectives: The objective of this study was to examine the safety effects of increases in U.S. state maximum speed limits during the period 1993–2013.

Methods: Poisson regression was used to model state-by-state annual traffic fatality rates per mile of travel as a function of time, the unemployment rate, the percentage of the driving age population that was younger than 25, per capita alcohol consumption, and the maximum posted speed limit on any road in the state. Separate analyses were conducted for all roads, interstates and freeways, and all other roads.

Results: A 5 mph increase in the maximum state speed limit was associated with an 8% increase in fatality rates on interstates and freeways and a 4% increase on other roads. In total, there were an estimated 33,000 more traffic fatalities during the years 1995–2013 than would have been expected if maximum speed limits had not increased. In 2013 alone, there were approximately 1,900 additional deaths—500 on interstates/freeways and 1,400 on other roads.

Conclusions: There is a definite trend of increased fatality risk when speed limits are raised. As roadway sections with higher speed limits have become more ubiquitous, the increase in fatality risk has extended beyond these roadways. The increase in risk has been so great that it has now largely offset the beneficial effects of some other traffic safety strategies. State policy makers should keep this trade-off in mind when considering proposals to raise speed limits.     

Cross-sectional study of road accidents and related law enforcement efficiency for 10 countries: A gap coherence analysis

Objective: Road crashes are considered as the eighth leading causes of death. There is a wide disparity in crash severity and law enforcement efficiency among low-, medium-, and high-income countries. It would be helpful to review the crash severity trends in these countries, identify the vulnerable road users, and understand the law enforcement effectiveness in devising efficient road safety improvement strategies.

Method: The crash severity, fatality rate among various age groups, and law enforcement strategies of 10 countries representing low-income (i.e., India and Morocco), medium-income (i.e. Argentina, South Korea, and Greece), and high-income (i.e., Australia, Canada, France, the UK, and the United States) are studied and compared for a period of 5 years (i.e., 2008 to 2012). The critical parameters affecting road safety are identified and correlated with education, culture, and basic compliance with traffic safety laws. In the process, possible road safety improvement strategies are identified for low-income countries.

Results: The number of registered vehicles shows an increasing trend for low-income countries as do the crash rate and crash severity. Compliance related to seat belt and helmet laws is high in high-income countries. In addition, recent seat belt– and helmet-related safety programs in middle-income countries helped to curb fatalities. Noncompliance with safety laws in low-income countries is attributed to education, culture, and inefficient law enforcement.

Conclusion: Efficient law enforcement and effective safety education taking into account cultural diversity are the key aspects to reduce traffic-related injuries and fatalities in low-income countries like India.     

Modeling pedestrian gap crossing index under mixed traffic condition

IntroductionThere are a variety of challenges faced by pedestrians when they walk along and attempt to cross a road, as the most recorded accidents occur during this time. Pedestrians of all types, including both sexes with numerous aging groups, are always subjected to risk and are characterized as the most exposed road users. The increased demand for better traffic management strategies to reduce the risks at intersections, improve quality traffic management, traffic volume, and longer cycle time has further increased concerns over the past decade.MethodThis paper aims to develop a sustainable pedestrian gap crossing index model based on traffic flow density. It focusses on the gaps accepted by pedestrians and their decision for street crossing, where (Log-Gap) logarithm of accepted gaps was used to optimize the result of a model for gap crossing behavior. Through a review of extant literature, 15 influential variables were extracted for further empirical analysis. Subsequently, data from the observation at an uncontrolled mid-block in Jalan Ampang in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia was gathered and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Binary Logit Model (BLM) techniques were employed to analyze the results.Results and conclusionsFrom the results, different pedestrian behavioral characteristics were considered for a minimum gap size model, out of which only a few (four) variables could explain the pedestrian road crossing behavior while the remaining variables have an insignificant effect. Among the different variables, age, rolling gap, vehicle type, and crossing were the most influential variables. The study concludes that pedestrians’ decision to cross the street depends on the pedestrian age, rolling gap, vehicle type, and size of traffic gap before crossing.Practical applicationsThe inferences from these models will be useful to increase pedestrian safety and performance evaluation of uncontrolled midblock road crossings in developing countries.     

Social environment versus cycling competency predicting risk-taking in 11- to 13-year-old cyclists in The Netherlands

Abstract

Objectives: From age 12 onwards, cycling injuries begin rising in The Netherlands. A known contributing factor is younger children’s underdeveloped competency to deal with complex and hazardous traffic situations, and their exposure to such situations strongly increases after transitioning to secondary school. Little is known about intentional risk-taking as a contributing factor. In this developmental stage, children become increasingly vulnerable because of intentional risk-taking, affecting their safety and health. The incidence, predictors in the child’s social environment, and trends of such risks are systematically monitored; for instance, for alcohol use, smoking, and cyber bullying. Such monitors do not include risky road behavior. This exploratory field study examined the frequency of intentional risky cycling, its relationship with the perceived social environment, and relative to cycling competency measured as the ability to detect emerging hazards quickly.

Methods: Three hundred thirty-five students between 11 and 13 years of age (51% male) completed computerized tests of hazard perception skill and surveys on crashes, risk-taking, peer pressure, perceived risk-taking by parents or friends, and exposure to risky driving as passenger.

Results: Frequent risk-taking was associated with higher crash frequency. Stepwise regression confirmed that children who more often took risks on the road were also more sensitive to peer pressure, had more often been passengers of risky drivers, had parents and friends who exhibited risky behaviors in traffic more often, and perceived hazards as less dangerous but, in contrast to expectations, did not do worse on the detection of hazards. The predictors explained 28% of the variance in total risk-taking but varied from 6 to 20% depending on the specific risk-taking behavior concerned.

Conclusions: At least 20% of children sometimes or more often take risks in traffic. Children who feel peer pressure to behave in a risky manner, observe parents and friends behaving in a risky manner in traffic, and have been exposed as passengers to risky driving more often take risks in traffic themselves. These results provide support for including items on risky road behavior in health monitors and to design interventions that address the risk factors in the child’s perceived social environment.     

Comparison of epidemiology and injury profile between vulnerable road users and motor vehicle occupants in road traffic fatalities

Objective: Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are a major global health issue causing a global burden of mortality and morbidity. Half of all fatalities on the world’s roads are vulnerable road users (VRUs). The targeted intervention strategies based on fatality analysis focusing on VRUs can effectively contribute to reducing RTIs. This study aimed to compare VRUs and motor vehicle occupants (MVOs) in terms of epidemiology and injury profile.

Methods: We utilized a nationwide, prospective database of RTI-related mortality cases for patients who visited 23 emergency departments between January 2011 and December 2015. All fatalities due to RTIs in the prehospital phase or in-hospital were eligible, excluding patients with unknown mode of transport and those admitted to general wards. The primary and secondary outcomes were fracture injuries and visceral injuries diagnosed using the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10). We compared fracture injuries between VRUs and MVOs using Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2? and 2+ classification.

Results: Among a total 3,694 road traffic fatalities (RTFs), 43.3% were pedestrians, followed by MVOs (27.0%), motorcyclists (18.9), bicyclists (6.6%), and agricultural vehicle users (4.2%). The elderly (>60 years old) accounted for 54.9% of VRU fatalities. RTFs occurred most frequently in the autumn and the VRU group and the MVO group showed significant differences in weekly and diurnal variation in RTFs. The injury severities (AIS 2+) of the head, neck, and thorax were significantly different between the 2 groups (P?Conclusions: Elderly pedestrians should be targeted for decreases in RTFs, and road traffic safety interventions for VRUs should be made based on the analysis of temporal epidemiology and injury profiles of RTFs.     

Contributing factors of crash injury severity at public highway-railroad grade crossings in the U.S.

IntroductionThe Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century (MAP-21) includes a separate program that supports safety improvements to reduce the number of fatalities and injuries at public highway-railroad grade crossings (HRGCs). This study identifies the significant factors affecting crash injury severity at public HRGCs in the United States.MethodCrashes from 2009 through 2013 on 5,528 public HRGCs, extracted from the Federal Railroad Administration database, were used in the analysis. A comprehensive list of risk factors was explored. Examples include predictors related to geographic region of crash, geometry (e.g., area type and pavement marking type), railroad (e.g., warning device type and railroad class), traffic (e.g., train speed and vehicles annual average daily traffic “AADT”), highway user (e.g., driver age and gender), and environment (e.g., lighting and weather conditions). The study used the mixed logit model to better capture the complex highway user behavior at HRGCs.ResultsFemale highway users were at higher risk of involvement in injuries and fatalities compared to males. Higher train speeds, very old drivers, open areas, concrete road surface types, and railroad equipment striking highway users before crash, were all found to increase the injury likelihood. On the other hand, young and middle-age drivers, non-passing of standing vehicles at HRGCs, industrial areas, and presence of warning bells were found to reduce injuries and fatalities.ConclusionsThe mixed logit model succeeded in identifying contributing factors of crash severity at public HRGCs and potential countermeasures to reduce both fatalities and injuries are suggested.Practical applicationsIt is important to install warning bells at public HRGCs, especially at those with high number of injury and fatality crashes. Enforcement of traffic nearby HRGCs is necessary to prevent vehicles from overtaking of standing vehicles.     

Designing a composite indicator for road safety

This study set out to develop a composite road safety indicator for benchmarking countries’ road safety performance, which would combine the main layers of the road safety pyramid which describes the complex nature of road safety activities, performance and outcomes. Four groups of basic safety indicators were considered, which refer to: policy performance (road safety programmes), final road safety outcomes (fatality rates, scope of traffic injury), intermediate outcomes (wearing rates of seat belts, crashworthiness and composition of vehicle fleet, alcohol-impaired driving), and background characteristics of countries (motorization level, population density). The analysis used the data collected for 27 European countries. Weights based on statistical models were used to combine the basic indicators into a composite one. Principal Component Analysis and Common Factor Analysis weighting were examined. The composite indicators, estimated by several methods, enabled us to rank and group the countries according to their safety performance.The analysis revealed that the countries’ ranking based on the composite indicators is not necessarily similar to the traditional ranking of countries based on fatality rates only. Furthermore, it was observed that the indicators belonging to the final outcomes and intermediate outcomes are not uniform in their behaviour. Indicators which were found to be more consistent and influential and termed a ‘core set of basic indicators’ are recommended for future uses. The general conclusion is that the design of a composite road safety indicator in which relevant information from the different components of the road safety pyramid has been captured and weighted is realistic and meaningful. Such an indicator gives a more enriched picture of road safety than a ranking based only on fatality rates, which is the common practice at present. Grouping countries in this process is promising and seems to be preferable to simply ranking countries.     

道路交通安全管理措施比较研究

根据近五年来我国道路交通安全状况的实际,针对目前我国道路交通安全管理的现状,本文就道路交通法规建设、道路交通安全宣传教育、道路交通执法、道路事故紧急救援措施等相关内容与日本、美国、欧洲交通发达国家进行了对比分析,以图找出我国现行的道路交通安全管理对策中的薄弱环节及完善的途径.     

Fatal and serious injuries related to vulnerable road users in Canada

IntroductionThe goals of this study were to analyze possible trends of fatal and serious injuries related to vulnerable road users in Canada (pedestrians, cyclists and motorcyclists) from 1990 to 2012 and the role of alcohol and drugs in these cases. Drugs have rarely been documented with respect to vulnerable road users.MethodThe Traffic Injury Research Foundation's National Fatality and Serious Injury Databases and the Public Health Agency of Canada's Canadian Hospitals Injury Reporting and Prevention Program databases were used. Numbers and rates of fatalities and serious injuries among vulnerable road users were analyzed and regression models were used to assess changes over time.ResultsThe analyses show that while the absolute number of fatalities and the rate per 100,000 population among vulnerable road users may be decreasing, no such trends are apparent when looking at the proportions of these road user fatalities out of all motor-vehicle fatalities. The trend for the proportion of motorcyclist fatalities is significantly increasing (coef. = 0.16, p < 0.001). The elderly (76 years or older) are overrepresented among pedestrian fatalities, and serious injuries (they represent 18.5% of all pedestrian fatalities but only 5.8% of the population), while those 15 years or younger are overrepresented among cyclists (they represent 23.3% of cyclist fatalities but 19.5% of the population), and those 16 to 25 years old are overrepresented among motorcyclists (27.2% of motorcyclists fatalities and 13.6% of population). Alcohol and drug use among fatally injured vulnerable road users were significant problems, especially among pedestrians. Among fatally injured pedestrians tested for alcohol and drugs, 39.7% and 43.4% tested positive, respectively.ConclusionsWith the promotion of walking and cycling as forms of exercise and the popularity of motorcycling, the safety of vulnerable road users is an important issue. The results corroborate previous research and extend our understanding about the influence of alcohol and drugs in vulnerable road user injuries.Practical applicationsThese findings can help better inform prevention and mitigation initiatives for vulnerable road users.     

Investigating safety of vulnerable road users in selected EU countries

Problem: Vulnerable road users comprise over half of all road accident victims in the EU and their safety situation is not improving as fast as for motorists. The paper examines factors affecting fatality risk of pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists, and moped riders in seven EU countries using data from CARE database. Method: Comparing accident severity indicators between countries is problematic because of data quality issues, different degree of underreporting, and different exposure levels. To avoid bias arising from these issues, fatality risk is modeled with binary logistic regression. Risk factors considered include accident location by area type, junction type, and traffic control, as well as lighting condition. Results are presented as odds ratios of fatal accident outcome in different countries under specific circumstances compared to reference conditions. It is shown that the error in OR values due to underreporting is small. Results and discussion: Wide confidence intervals of the odds ratios in some countries confirm problems with accident data quality. Fatality risk is always higher for non-urban versus urban area and for darkness versus daylight conditions, but the odds ratios are different for different countries. Inconsistent results are obtained for accident location with respect to junction and its control type. Possible reasons for these differences are suggested and discussed. Practical applications: The proposed method avoids the data quality bias of accident severity indicators, thus, it can be used in international comparisons of vulnerable road user accidents. The article findings also support the concept of changes in legislation, such as reducing the speed limit in urban areas in Poland at night. Generally, the experience of countries with low VRU fatality risk identified in the article can be transferred to those with a higher risk.     

Children’s fear in traffic and its association with pedestrian decisions

Introduction: Research on risk for child pedestrian injury risk focuses primarily on cognitive risk factors, but emotional states such as fear may also be relevant to injury risk. The current study examined children's perception of fear in various traffic situations and the relationship between fear perception and pedestrian decisions. Method: 150 children aged 6–12-years old made pedestrian decisions using a table-top road model. Their perceived fear in the pedestrian context was assessed. Results: Children reported greater emotional fear when they faced quicker traffic, shorter distances from approaching traffic, and red rather than green traffic signals. Children who were more fearful made safer pedestrian decisions in more challenging traffic situations. However, when the least risky traffic situation was presented, fear was associated with more errors in children’s pedestrian decisions: fearful children failed to cross the street when they could have done so safely. Perception of fear did not vary by child age, although safe pedestrian decisions were more common among the older children. Conclusions: Children’s emotional fear may predict risk-taking in traffic. When traffic situations are challenging to cross within, fear may appropriately create safer decisions. However, when the traffic situation is less risky, feelings of fear could lead to excessive caution and inefficiency. Practical applications: Child pedestrian safety interventions may benefit by incorporating activities that introduce realistic fear of traffic risks into broader safety lessons.     

Smeed's law and expected road fatality reduction: An assessment of the Italian case

IntroductionSmeed's law defines the functional relationship existing between the fatality rate and the motorization rate. While focusing on the Italian case and based on the Smeed's law, the study assesses the possibility for Italy of reaching the target of halving the number of road fatalities by 2020, in light of the evolving socio-economic situation.MethodA Smeed's model has been calibrated based on the recorded Italian data. The evolution of the two indicators, fatality and motorization rates, has been estimated using the predictions of the main parameters (population, fleet size and fatalities). Those trends have been compared with the natural decreasing trend derived from the Smeed's law.ResultsNine scenarios have been developed showing the relationship between the fatality rate and the motorization rate. In case of a limited increase (logistic regression) of the vehicle fleet and according to the estimated evolution of the population, the path defined by motorization and fatality rate is very steep, diverging from the estimated confidence interval of the Smeed's model. In these scenarios the motorization rate is almost constant during the decade.ConclusionsIn the actual economic context, a limited development of the vehicle fleet is more plausible. In these conditions the target achievement of halving the number of fatalities in Italy may occur only in case of a structural break (i.e., the introduction of highly effective road safety policies).Practical applicationThe proposed tools can be used both to evaluate retrospectively the effectiveness of road safety improvements and to assess if a relevant effort is needed to reach the established road safety targets.     

Risk factors for being the at-fault driver: A case–control study

Objective: It is estimated that road traffic accidents are globally responsible for approximately 1.2 million deaths and 20 to 50 million injuries. About 70% of traffic incidences (TIs) occur in developing countries and among countries with high TI rates; Iran is the first. The aim of this study was to measure the association between being responsible for a traffic accident and some vehicle, human; and environmental related factors in Yasuj, a city with a high incidence of road traffic injuries and deaths in Iran.

Methods: This is a time-, date-, and place-matched case–control study conducted in 2015 using all traffic accidents registered and investigated by police during 2012. In total, 194 drivers were considered the at-fault driver in a traffic accident and the 194 drivers in the same collisions were included in the analysis.

Results: Based on the results from multivariate conditional logistic regression, significant associations between vehicle maneuver (OR_{Turn to right or left/Moving forward} = 11.10, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.77–69.58, P = .01) and age (odds ratio [OR] = 1.11, 95% CI, 1.004–1.22, P = .04) and the chance of being an at-fault driver were found.

Conclusion: Driver behavior–related interventions including training and law enforcement seem to be more effective in reducing road traffic accidents in Iran.     

Investigating traffic fatality trends and restraint use among rear-seat passengers in the United States, 2000–2016

Introduction: Motor-vehicle crash is one of the leading causes of unintentional injury death in the United States. Previous studies focused on fatalities among drivers and front-seat passengers, with a limited number of studies examining rear-seat passenger fatalities. The objectives of this study were to assess trends in rear-seat passenger motor-vehicle fatalities in the United States from 2000 to 2016 and to identify demographic factors associated with being unrestrained among fatally injured rear-seat passengers. Methods: Rear-seat passenger fatality data were obtained from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) database. The fatality rate ratios for overall rear-seat passengers and for different age and sex groups were determined by comparing fatality rates in 2000 and 2016 using random effects models. Risk ratios of being unrestrained for age and sex groups were obtained using general estimating equations. Results: Compared to 2000, the overall rear-seat passenger fatality rate in 2016 decreased by 44% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 39–49%). In particular, the fatality rate among rear-seat passengers decreased more in males than females, and passengers aged 14–19 years experienced a larger decline than all other age groups. Fatally injured male rear-seat passengers had a higher risk of being unrestrained (adjusted risk ratio: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.04–1.07) than their female counterparts, and both youngest (≤13 years) and oldest (65–85 years) passengers were less likely to be unrestrained than those aged 20–64 years. Conclusions: Overall, fatality rates among rear-seat passengers have declined, with differential degrees of improvement by age and sex. Practical Applications: Continued restraint use enforcement campaigns targeted at teenagers and males would further preserve them from fatal injuries and improve traffic safety for the overall population.